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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

Quantifying microbial control of soil organic matter dynamics at macrosystem scales

Soil organic matter (SOM) stocks, decomposition and persistence are largely the product of controls that act locally. Yet the controls are shaped and interact at multiple spatiotemporal scales, from which macrosystem patterns in SOM emerge. Theory on SOM turnover recognizes the resulting spatial and temporal conditionality in the effect sizes of controls that play out across macrosystems, and couples them through evolutionary and community assembly processes. For example, climate history shapes plant functional traits, which in turn interact with contemporary climate to influence SOM dynamics. Selection and assembly also shape the functional traits of soil decomposer communities, but it is less clear how in turn these traits influence temporal macrosystem patterns in SOM turnover. Here, we review evidence that establishes the expectation that selection and assembly should generate decomposer communities across macrosystems that have distinct functional effects on SOM dynamics. Representation of this knowledge in soil biogeochemical models affects the magnitude and direction of projected SOM responses under global change. Yet there is high uncertainty and low confidence in these projections. To address these issues, we make the case that a coordinated set of empirical practices are required which necessitate (1) greater use of statistical approaches in biogeochemistry that are suited to causative inference; (2) long-term, macrosystem-scale, observational and experimental networks to reveal conditionality in effect sizes, and embedded correlation, in controls on SOM turnover; and (3) use of multiple measurement grains to capture local- and macroscale variation in controls and outcomes, to avoid obscuring causative understanding through data aggregation. Here, when employed together, along with process-based models to synthesize knowledge and guide further empirical work, we believe these practices will rapidly advance understanding of microbial controls on SOM and improve carbon cycle projections that guide policies on climate adaptation and mitigation.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

AL4GAP: Active learning workflow for generating DFT-SCAN accurate machine-learning potentials for combinatorial molten salt mixtures

Machine learning interatomic potentials have emerged as a powerful tool for bypassing the spatiotemporal limitations of ab initio simulations, but major challenges remain in their efficient parameterization. We present AL4GAP, an ensemble active learning software workflow for generating multicomposition Gaussian approximation potentials (GAP) for arbitrary molten salt mixtures. The workflow capabilities include: (1) setting up user-defined combinatorial chemical spaces of charge neutral mixtures of arbitrary molten mixtures spanning 11 cations (Li, Na, K, Rb, Cs, Mg, Ca, Sr, Ba and two heavy species, Nd, and Th) and 4 anions (F, Cl, Br, and I), (2) configurational sampling using low-cost empirical parameterizations, (3) active learning for down-selecting configurational samples for single point density functional theory calculations at the level of Strongly Constrained and Appropriately Normed (SCAN) exchange-correlation functional, and (4) Bayesian optimization for hyperparameter tuning of two-body and many-body GAP models. Here, we apply the AL4GAP workflow to showcase high throughput generation of five independent GAP models for multicomposition binary-mixture melts, each of increasing complexity with respect to charge valency and electronic structure, namely: LiCl–KCl, NaCl–CaCl 2 , KCl–NdCl 3 , CaCl 2 –NdCl 3 , and KCl–ThCl 4 . Our results indicate that GAP models can accurately predict structure for diverse molten salt mixture with density functional theory (DFT)-SCAN accuracy, capturing the intermediate range ordering characteristic of the multivalent cationic melts.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2021

Estimating carrying capacity for juvenile salmon using quantile random forest models

Abstract Establishing robust methods and metrics to evaluate habitat quality is critical for the recovery of endangered Pacific salmonids ( Oncorhynchus spp.). A variety of modeling approaches are used for status and trend monitoring of anadromous species throughout the Pacific Northwest, USA, but current methods may fail to capture the complex relationship between fish and habitat and are often limited in predictive power beyond specific watersheds. Further, the focus on species distribution and abundance is not easily manipulated to predict carrying capacity and traditional stock‐recruitment analyses are reliant on long‐term data which are not always available. In this study, we developed a quantile random forest model to provide estimates of habitat carrying capacity for Chinook salmon ( O. tshawytscha ) parr during the summer months, at both the site and watershed scale. Quantile random forest models allow for the consideration of noisy data, correlated variables, and non‐linear relationships: common features in fish–habitat datasets. We leveraged Columbia Habitat Monitoring Program data to select habitat co‐variates and predict capacity at those sites. We also identified a set of globally available attributes to extrapolate capacity estimate predictions throughout wadeable streams within the Columbia River basin. Total capacity estimates for watersheds closely matched estimates from alternative fish productivity models. Carrying capacity estimates based on quantile random forest models, like those presented here, provide managers a framework to guide the identification, prioritization, and development of habitat rehabilitation actions to recover salmon populations.

See, Kevin E.↗
DOE OSTI2021

Dipole Moment Calculations Using Multiconfiguration Pair-Density Functional Theory and Hybrid Multiconfiguration Pair-Density Functional Theory

The dipole moment is the molecular property that most directly indicates molecular polarity. The accuracy of computed dipole moments depends strongly on the quality of the calculated electron density, and the breakdown of single-reference methods for strongly correlated systems can lead to poor predictions of the dipole moments in those cases. Here, we derive the analytical expression for obtaining the electric dipole moment by multiconfiguration pair density functional theory (MCPDFT), and we assess the accuracy of MC-PDFT for predicting dipole moments at equilibrium and nonequilibrium geometries. We show that MC-PDFT dipole moment curves have reasonable behavior even for stretched geometries, and they significantly improve upon the CASSCF results by capturing more electron correlation. Herein, the analysis of a dataset consisting of 18 first-row transition metal diatomics and 6 main-group polyatomic molecules with multireference character suggests that MC-PDFT and its hybrid extension (HMC-PDFT) perform comparably to CASPT2 and MRCISD+Q methods and have a mean unsigned deviation of 0.2–0.3 D with respect to the best available dipole moment reference values. We explored the dependence of the predicted dipole moments upon the choice of the on-top density functional and active space, and we recommend the tPBE and hybrid tPBE0 on-top choices for the functionals combined with the moderate correlated participating orbital scheme for selecting the active space. With these choices, the mean unsigned deviations (in debyes) of the calculated equilibrium dipole moments from the best estimates are 0.77 for CASSCF, 0.29 for MC-PDFT, 0.24 for HMCPDFT, 0.28 for CASPT2, and 0.25 for MRCISD+Q. These results are encouraging because the computational cost of MC-PDFT or HMC-PDFT is largely reduced compared to the CASPT2 and MRCISD+Q methods.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2026

Imaging Three-Dimensional Molecular Structure and Dynamics with Multiparticle Covariance and Cumulant Coulomb Explosion Analysis

Coulomb explosion imaging (CEI) provides a direct means of imaging molecular geometry by correlating fragment ion momenta following the fragmentation of a molecular polycation. Here, we demonstrate the use of three-body covariance and four-body cumulant analysis to extract three-dimensional (3D) structural information from the X-ray-induced Coulomb explosion of tert-butyl iodide (C4H9I). Site-selective ionization at the iodine 4d edge with intense femtosecond soft X-ray pulses from an X-ray free-electron laser (XFEL) enables rapid charge buildup and molecular breakup. By correlating ionic fragments in the molecular frame, we isolate complete dissociation channels and reveal subtle structural changes, such as umbrella-type motion of the branched alkyl chain, during the ionization process. Comparison with point-charge simulations of the Coulomb explosion shows close agreement, validating the approach. Furthermore, these results establish covariance/cumulant mapping as a powerful strategy for imaging complex three-dimensional molecular structures and point the way toward time-resolved CEI using both XFEL and tabletop sources for capturing ultrafast structural dynamics.

Imaging↗
DOE OSTI2023

Identifying strengths and weaknesses of methods for computational network inference from single-cell RNA-seq data

Single-cell RNA-sequencing (scRNA-seq) offers unparalleled insight into the transcriptional programs of different cellular states by measuring the transcriptome of thousands of individual cells. An emerging problem in the analysis of scRNA-seq is the inference of transcriptional gene regulatory networks and a number of methods with different learning frameworks have been developed to address this problem. Here, we present an expanded benchmarking study of eleven recent network inference methods on seven published scRNA-seq datasets in human, mouse, and yeast considering different types of gold standard networks and evaluation metrics. We evaluate methods based on their computing requirements as well as on their ability to recover the network structure. We find that, while most methods have a modest recovery of experimentally derived interactions based on global metrics such as Area Under the Precision Recall curve, methods are able to capture targets of regulators that are relevant to the system under study. Among the top performing methods that use only expression were SCENIC, PIDC, MERLIN or Correlation. Addition of prior biological knowledge and the estimation of transcription factor activities resulted in the best overall performance with the Inferelator and MERLIN methods that use prior knowledge outperforming methods that use expression alone. We found that imputation for network inference did not improve network inference accuracy and could be detrimental. Comparisons of inferred networks for comparable bulk conditions showed that the networks inferred from scRNA-seq datasets are often better or at par with the networks inferred from bulk datasets. Our analysis should be beneficial in selecting methods for network inference. At the same time, this highlights the need for improved methods and better gold standards for regulatory network inference from scRNAseq datasets.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Genetic mapping and prediction of flowering time and plant height in a maize Stiff Stalk MAGIC population

Abstract The Stiff Stalk heterotic pool is a foundation of US maize seed parent germplasm and has been heavily utilized by both public and private maize breeders since its inception in the 1930s. Flowering time and plant height are critical characteristics for both inbred parents and their test crossed hybrid progeny. To study these traits, a 6-parent multiparent advanced generation intercross population was developed including maize inbred lines B73, B84, PHB47 (B37 type), LH145 (B14 type), PHJ40 (novel early Stiff Stalk), and NKH8431 (B73/B14 type). A set of 779 doubled haploid lines were evaluated for flowering time and plant height in 2 field replicates in 2016 and 2017, and a subset of 689 and 561 doubled haploid lines were crossed to 2 testers, respectively, and evaluated as hybrids in 2 locations in 2018 and 2019 using an incomplete block design. Markers were derived from a practical haplotype graph built from the founder whole genome assemblies and genotype-by-sequencing and exome capture-based sequencing of the population. Genetic mapping utilizing an update to R/qtl2 revealed differing profiles of significant loci for both traits between 635 of the DH lines and 2 sets of 570 and 471 derived hybrids. Genomic prediction was used to test the feasibility of predicting hybrid phenotypes based on the per se data. Predictive abilities were highest on direct models trained using the data they would predict (0.55–0.63), and indirect models trained using per se data to predict hybrid traits had slightly lower predictive abilities (0.49–0.55). Overall, this finding is consistent with the overlapping and nonoverlapping significant quantitative trait loci found within the per se and hybrid populations and suggests that selections for phenology traits can be made effectively on doubled haploid lines before hybrid data is available.

Genetics & Heredity↗
DOE OSTI2024

Performance Comparison of Machine Learning Models for Ultrasonic Nondestructive Evaluation of Alkali-Silica Reaction in Concrete

Alkali-silica reaction (ASR) causes concrete degradation, leading to cracking, rebar corrosion, and reduced structural integrity, which raises safety concerns. Ultrasonic nondestructive evaluation (NDE) effectively assesses concrete properties and monitors ASR progression. However, its deployment and analysis require specialized expertise and subjective interpretation. As computational power increases, artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning (ML) algorithms are increasingly being used to automate NDE data analysis across various industries for AI-assisted automation. Regulatory agencies are adapting to this technological shift, prompting a need to evaluate current ML technologies’ capabilities and limitations in assessing concrete material properties and damage. This report presents a comparative analysis of four ML regression models for predicting concrete material damage induced by ASR expansion using long-term ultrasonic data monitoring. The models investigated include linear regression (LR), support vector regression (SVR), shallow neural networks (NN), and deep neural networks (DNN). LR, SVR, and shallow NN models use features extracted from ultrasonic signals, whereas the DNN model processes time-domain ultrasonic signals and frequency spectra directly. The study systematically compared the models’ performance from various perspectives, including model input, prediction performance, and generalization ability. The findings indicate significant variability in model performance, with some ML algorithms achieving very high or very low prediction accuracy depending on the preprocessing and feature engineering (extraction and selection) applied. Key insights include the observation that shallow ML models (LR, SVR, and shallow NNs) require meticulous preprocessing and feature extraction to achieve high accuracy. In contrast, the DNN model, although it bypasses the need for feature engineering, necessitates extensive preprocessing to mitigate noise and computational demands. The SVR model emerged as the top performer among the shallow models, and the DNN model exhibited superior performance on specific datasets but struggled with generalization across specimens from different batches. Additionally, the SVR model is sensitive to temperature variations, whereas the DNN model is robust in this regard. Using recurrent neural networks is recommended for future ASR expansion prediction studies. Recurrent neural networks’ inherent ability to capture temporal dependencies and long-term patterns makes them well suited for analyzing sequential ultrasonic monitoring data. Overall, the results and conclusions of this study could provide insights into the capabilities and effectiveness of ML when applied to ultrasonic NDE data and help identify best practices for using ML for ultrasonic NDE of concrete material properties.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2023

Regulating Gas Transport in Molecularly Engineered Polymer Membranes (Final Technical Report)

Energy-efficient separation processes are essential for a wide range of applications ranging from clean fuels (e.g., hydrogen purification) and petroleum refining (e.g., natural gas processing) to water purification and carbon capture. Membrane-mediated separations have shown tremendous promise in providing high productivity and high separation efficiency at significantly lower energy consumption, e.g., up to 90% less energy cost than traditional thermally driven processes such as distillation. Polymeric membranes–the dominant separation membrane materials–have yet to reach their full potential due to their limitations in long-term durability (e.g., productivity loss over the period of their lifetime due to physical aging) or insufficient stability under harsh conditions (e.g., high temperature, chemically complex feeds). This research seeks to establish a new paradigm in polymer membrane material design by harnessing crosslinked model networks with well-defined yet finely tailorable microstructure to facilitate fast and selective gas transport and simultaneously enhance membrane stability. Unlike traditional randomly crosslinked polymers, which suffer from structural inconsistencies and consequently suboptimal gas separation performance, crosslinked model network membranes prepared via a precisely controlled end-linking process enables the creation of previously unattainable microstructure tunability, which, in turn, results in versatile crosslinked membranes with high separation performance that meet the needs of various challenging gas separations. Using model network framework as a fundamental tool by applying this concept in diverse polymer categories, this work has led to the development of various innovative crosslinked membrane structures such as unimodal, bimodal and clustered model networks. These advanced crosslinked polymer membranes not only demonstrate exceptional gas separation performance that significantly outperform existing randomly crosslinked membranes, but also possess excellent long-term durability and robust stability under complex operating conditions. From a fundamental perspective, results from this research provide critical mechanistic insights into gas separation in crosslinked polymer membranes, addressing key knowledge gaps and opening new avenues for membrane design to meet various separation needs. The new membrane materials produced from this research enable the use of polymeric membranes for high temperature gas separations, offering substantial energy and cost savings by eliminating the need for repeated cooling-heating cycles in industrial processes.

02 PETROLEUM↗
DOE OSTI2025

Cost and Performance Baseline for Fossil Energy Plants Volume 1: Bituminous Coal and Natural Gas to Electricity

This report presents an independent assessment of the cost and performance of select fossil energy power systems—pulverized coal (PC) and natural gas combined cycle (NGCC) plants—using a systematic, transparent, technical, and economic approach. This is Volume 1 of the baseline series: Bituminous Coal and Natural Gas to Electricity. The cost and performance of fossil fuel‐based generation technologies represented in this report are important inputs to assessments and determinations of technology combinations to be utilized to meet the projected demands of future power markets. From a research and development perspective, this report is used to assess goals and metrics and to provide a consistent basis for comparing developing technologies. The main report consists of fifteen power plant configurations, six PC cases (with and without carbon capture) nine NGCC cases (with and without carbon capture) and few additional cases of higher capture rate, for both PC and NGCC plants in the appendix. In addition to the report, an interactive tool was developed that allows users to manipulate six key study parameters simultaneously for each case and visualize the impact on three metrics: 1) levelized cost of electricity (LCOE), 2) cost of CO 2 capture (CCC), and 3) cost of CO 2 avoided (CCA). Following is the link to the interactive tool: https://netl.doe.gov/NETLVol1BaselineTool

20 FOSSIL-FUELED POWER PLANTS↗
NASA NTRS1993

Spline screw payload fastening system

A system for coupling an orbital replacement unit (ORU) to a space station structure via the actions of a robot and/or astronaut is described. This system provides mechanical and electrical connections both between the ORU and the space station structure and between the ORU and the ORU and the robot/astronaut hand tool. Alignment and timing features ensure safe, sure handling and precision coupling. This includes a first female type spline connector selectively located on the space station structure, a male type spline connector positioned on the orbital replacement unit so as to mate with and connect to the first female type spline connector, and a second female type spline connector located on the orbital replacement unit. A compliant drive rod interconnects the second female type spline connector and the male type spline connector. A robotic special end effector is used for mating with and driving the second female type spline connector. Also included are alignment tabs exteriorally located on the orbital replacement unit for berthing with the space station structure. The first and second female type spline connectors each include a threaded bolt member having a captured nut member located thereon which can translate up and down the bolt but are constrained from rotation thereabout, the nut member having a mounting surface with at least one first type electrical connector located on the mounting surface for translating with the nut member. At least one complementary second type electrical connector on the orbital replacement unit mates with at least one first type electrical connector on the mounting surface of the nut member. When the driver on the robotic end effector mates with the second female type spline connector and rotates, the male type spline connector and the first female type spline connector lock together, the driver and the second female type spline connector lock together, and the nut members translate up the threaded bolt members carrying the first type electrical connector up to the complementary second type connector for interconnection therewith.

Vranish, John M.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Characterizing Detailed Grain Shape and Size Distribution Properties of Lunar Regolith

Introduction: As the nation prepares to return to the Moon, there is an increasing need for testing tools, instruments, and equipment in simulated environments on Earth to ensure successful operations during lunar missions. Regolith will affect all aspects of future lunar missions, from plume interactions during landing to space suit and tool design [1]. Because of this, it is important to understand the grain shape and size properties of lunar regolith and how those influence regolith behavior in order to prepare for these missions. This knowledge is also vital to create more accurate lunar regolith simulants for testing equipment in a lunar environment. While particle size analyses have been performed on most Apollo soils using simple sieving, shape has only been crudely addressed [2]. This work analyzes 4 lunar regolith samples to provide a better understanding of these size and shape parameters and will provide a more accurate baseline of data to create high-fidelity lunar regolith simulants. Methods: New technologies exist today that are capable of measuring size and shape simultaneously for hundreds of thousands of particles in a single measurement. We conducted a rigorous analysis of the particle size distribution (PSD) as well as the size-dependent 2D and 3D shape parameters of lunar regolith samples of different compositions and maturity levels. This analysis was done using a Microtrac SYNC which provides a unique combination of tri-laser diffraction and Dynamic Image Analysis (DIA). Sample Selection. Four regolith samples were selected for analysis based on maturity level and lunar terrain type: • 10084 – Mature high-Ti mare regolith • 15601 – Immature low-Ti mare regolith • 64501 – Mature highland regolith • 67461 – Immature highland regolith Sample Analysis. After receiving the samples, each sample was imaged with an optical microscope (Figure 1). To obtain 2D and 3D particle size and shape, 0.1 g of each sample was then added to the SYNC for analysis, which outputs more than 30 size and shape parameters for each individual grain as well as the complete size distribution from 0.01-2000 μm by blending laser diffraction and DIA together. For the 0.1 g sample masses requested, ~100,000 grains per sample were captured by DIA. Results: From the PSD analysis, it can be seen that the average particle size of 10084 is ~24.5 µm which is much smaller than the average particle size of the Apollo sample collection (~72 µm) [3], while the average particle size of samples 15601, 64501, and 67461 are larger than the Apollo sample average at ~106 µm, ~103 µm, and ~118.5 µm respectively. The size and shape measurements for the samples output ~30 parameters, four of which were focused on for this study: sphericity, aspect ratio, roundness, and concavity (Figure 3). However, after analyzing the plots it was found that only sphericity and aspect ratio showed differences between the samples. These two parameters are measured on a scale from 0 to 1, with 1 being a perfect sphere with equal dimensions. The results show that the sphericity values are slightly high-er for the mature samples 10084 and 64501 (~0.96) than they are for samples 15601 and 67461 (~0.95) (Figure 4). The aspect ratio values are slightly lower for samples 64501 (~0.7) and 67461 (~0.74) than they are for samples 10084 (~0.76) and 15601 (~0.8) (Figure 5). Discussion: Mature regoliths are those that have been exposed to micrometeorite and solar wind bombardment for long periods of time, breaking up particles and causing them to become more rounded [4]. Therefore, the smaller particle sizes and higher sphericity values for samples 10084 and 64501 are expected due to their higher maturity level compared to 15601 and 67461. However, the aspect ratio values are not dependent on maturity and are instead dependent on terrain type. The lower aspect ratio values for the high-land samples is potentially due to the higher plagioclase content, which occurs in elongated particles and does not break down as easily as the pyroxenes or olivines that are present in the mare. Conclusion and Future Work: The results of this work provide a baseline of high-quality data that will contribute to the creation of high-fidelity lunar simulants and will greatly benefit NASA’s efforts of establishing a human presence on the Moon. Future work includes performing unsupervised image classification on the ~105 particle images per sample in order to identify different classes of grains. These grain classes can then be linked to detailed shape properties, and the relative abundance of each class in the samples can be compared. Acknowledgments: We would like to thank the Extraterrestrial Materials Analysis Group (ExMAG) and the Astromaterials Allocation Review Board (AARB) for allocating lunar regolith samples 10084,9010, 15601,365, 64501,249, and 67461,171 for this work. References: [1] Taylor, L. A. et al. (2005) AIAA #2510. [2] Katagiri et al. (2015) ASCE. [3] Carrier III, W. D. (2005) Lunar Geotech Institute Tech Report. [4] McKay, D. S. et al. (1991) The Lunar Sourcebook, Chapter 7.

S R Deitrick↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

A PI’s Guide to Analog Research

Congratulation on being awarded a grant to conduct research in a spaceflight analog! NASA funded research in a Human Research Program (HRP) managed analog environment is very different from research in a traditional laboratory. This presentation will provide a guide to help investigators successfully plan studies for integration and implementation in an HRP analog platform. There are many things to consider when planning a study for implementation in an analog facility and campaign or mission. How do you get from grant approval to data analysis? This is where HRP’s Research Operations and Integration (ROI) team comes in. The ROI team works with sponsoring HRP elements and PI teams to capture requirements and help the PI teams through the phases of research complement development, integration and implementation. A complement is comprised of a group of studies requiring a common platform and/or scenario that are able to be integrated on a noninterference basis for implementation. Properly defining and documenting requirements and study needs is crucial in successful integration and implementation. This presentation will outline and provide the information needed for PI teams to understand the integration process and the role of the ROI team in the successful integration and implementation of their study. Topics to be discussed will include but not be limited to science requirement definition and documentation, NASA IRB submissions, subject recruitment, screening and selection, study integration process, efficiency in data collection and data sharing, daily crew schedules, hardware and software shipping, receipt and checkout, biological sample collection, mission support, data management and receipt of data.

B. Caldwell↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

MUSTANG: A Workhorse for NASA Spaceflight Avionics

The Modular Unified Space Technology Avionics for Next Generation (MUSTANG) is a small integrated Avionics system including Command and Data Handling (C&DH), Power System Electronics (PSE), Attitude Control System Interfaces (ACS), and Propulsion Electronics. The MUSTANG Avionics Architecture is built upon many years of knowledge capture and lessons learned at the Goddard Space Flight Center. With a motivation towards modularity and keeping board redesign costs to a minimum, MUSTANG offers flexibility in features with a backplane-less design and allows the user to choose the options (cards) needed for their system. It incorporates a distributed power system that provides secondary power to all its subcomponents reducing the number of primary services needed for an Avionics. MUSTANG can be integrated into one system or divided into several smaller components. MUSTANG supports redundancy and cross-strap ability for a more robust and reliable Avionics system. A variation of MUSTANG exists for Instrument Electronics called iMUSTANG and allows the user to select functionality applicable to the instrument electronics. MUSTANG is not meant to replace Avionics for all spacecraft. There are limitations due to its relatively compact size, but the MUSTANG design has proven broadly applicable on many spacecraft and instrument bus avionics architectures.

MUSTANG↗
DOE OSTI2023

A TCN-Based Hybrid Forecasting Framework for Hours-Ahead Utility-Scale PV Forecasting

This paper presents a Temporal Convolutional Network (TCN) based hybrid PV forecasting framework for enhancing hours-ahead utility-scale PV forecasting. The hybrid framework consists of two forecasting models: a physics-based trend forecasting (TF) model and a data-driven fluctuation forecasting (FF) model. Three TCNs are integrated in the framework for: i) blending the inputs from different Numerical Weather Prediction sources for the TF model to achieve superior performance on forecasting hourly PV profiles, ii) capturing spatial-temporal correlations between detector sites and the target site in the FF model to achieve more accurate forecast of intra- hour PV power drops, and iii) reconciling TF and FF results to obtain coherent hours-ahead PV forecast with both hourly trends and intra-hour fluctuations well preserved. To automatically identify the most contributive neighboring sites for forming a detector network, a scenario-based correlation analysis method is developed, which significantly improves the capability of the FF model on capturing large power fluctuations caused by cloud movements. Here, the framework is developed, tested, and validated using actual PV data collected from 95 PV farms in North Carolina. Simulation results show that the performance of 6 hours ahead PV power forecasting is improved by 20% - 30% compared with state-of-the-art methods.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2021

Sensitivity of the NEXT experiment to Xe-124 double electron capture

Double electron capture by proton-rich nuclei is a second-order nuclear process analogous to double beta decay. Despite their similarities, the decay signature is quite different, potentially providing a new channel to measure the hypothesized neutrinoless mode of these decays. The Standard-Model-allowed two-neutrino double electron capture (2$\nu$EC EC) has been predicted for a number of isotopes, but only observed in 78 Kr, 130 Ba and, recently, 124 Xe. The sensitivity to this decay establishes a benchmark for the ultimate experimental goal, namely the potential to discover also the lepton-number-violating neutrinoless version of this process, 0$\nu$EC EC. Here we report on the current sensitivity of the NEXT-White detector to 124 Xe 2$\nu$EC EC and on the extrapolation to NEXT-100. Using simulated data for the 2$\nu$EC EC signal and real data from NEXT-White operated with 124 Xe-depleted gas as background, we define an optimal event selection that maximizes the NEXT-White sensitivity. We estimate that, for NEXT-100 operated with xenon gas isotopically enriched with 1 kg of 124 Xe and for a 5-year run, a sensitivity to the 2$\nu$EC EC half-life of 6 × 10 22 y (at 90% confidence level) or better can be reached.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2023

Northern Hemisphere Snow Drought in Earth System Model Simulations and ERA5‐Land Data in 1980–2014

Abstract Low snow levels over the past few decades and predictions of a low‐to‐no snow future have spurred research into snow droughts, which pose a threat to water security and management. Systematic data‐model comparisons of snow drought have been lacking, hindering our understanding of the drivers of snow drought in the past. To address this gap, we analyzed snow drought events using standardized snow water equivalent index derived from monthly results of four numerical experiments using the E3SM Land Model (ELM) and ERA5‐Land data during the period of 1980–2014. Additionally, we compared snow drought duration calculated from models with those from the ERA5‐Land data during selected El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO) years. The numerical experiments were conducted with ELM driven by two prescribed atmospheric forcings, and with the coupled land‐atmosphere configuration of E3SM with and without plant hydraulics scheme feedback. Analysis reveals that 20%–30% of snow droughts occur due to factors other than above‐normal temperature and low snowfall, such as low soil moisture, warm soil temperature, and low relative humidity, etc., especially in high latitudes (50° North). Furthermore, our study highlights the exacerbating effect of ENSO events on snow drought conditions in various regions, despite some discrepancies between model and ERA5‐Land results. We also identified limitations of the coupled land‐atmosphere models in our current configuration in capturing the spatial patterns of snow droughts. This study underscores the challenge of predicting and mitigating snow drought and the need for a comprehensive understanding of the factors contributing to snow drought.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Dynamics of inverse metal oxides on metal catalysts using spectro-kinetics: reversible Brønsted acid site formation and irreversible reduction

Brønsted acid sites (BASs) in inverse catalysts are vital for the selective hydrogenolysis of polyols, specifically cleaving secondary C–O bonds. These BASs form dynamically in situ in an H 2 environment. While H 2 enables rapid BAS generation on short timescales, it reduces the catalyst at prolonged exposures. The active center for BAS generation, the kinetics of BAS formation, its reverse decomposition, and the irreversible oxide reduction have lacked direct experimental evidence. Here, aided by advanced spectro-kinetic studies, we identify trimeric W 3 O x sites on Pt as the active centers for BAS generation, whereas isolated WO x species on SiO 2 act merely as spectator species, demonstrated using an inverse WO x /Pt catalyst as a representative system. A detailed kinetic profile capturing the dynamics of W 3 O x sites on Pt is also established. The rate constant for BAS formation is two orders of magnitude higher than for its decomposition, which is one order of magnitude faster than the irreversible site reduction. Co-fed H 2 O suppresses the site reduction by ∼50%. Furthermore, the H 2 partial pressure plays an important role. While lower gas-phase H 2 partial pressure does not influence the reversible BAS formation, it can significantly (∼3×) suppress catalyst reduction. Finally, these findings offer critical insights into optimizing reaction conditions through periodic H 2 pulsing, enhancing catalyst stability and performance in hydrogenolysis reactions.

Sourav, Sagar [Indian Inst. of Technology (IIT), M↗