Interagency Technical Nuclear Forensics Program Review: Analysis of Initial Pu Bench Scale Study Data.
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This report was prepared on behalf of three Energy Frontier Topical Groups of the Snowmass 2021 Community Planning Exercise. It summarizes the status and implications of studies of strong interactions in high-energy experiments and QCD theory. We emphasize the rich landscape and broad impact of these studies in the decade ahead. Hadronic interactions play a central role in the high-luminosity Large Hadron Collider (LHC) physics program, and strong synergies exist between the (HL-)LHC and planned or proposed experiments at the U.S. Electron-Ion Collider, CERN forward physics experiments, high-intensity facilities, and future TeV-range lepton and hadron colliders. Prospects for precision determinations of the strong coupling and a variety of nonperturbative distribution and fragmentation functions are examined. We also review the potential of envisioned tests of new dynamical regimes of QCD in high-energy and high-density scattering processes with nucleon, ion, and photon initial states. The important role of the high-energy heavy-ion program in studies of nuclear structure and the nuclear medium, and its connections with QCD involving nucleons are summarized. We address ongoing and future theoretical advancements in multi-loop QCD computations, lattice QCD, jet substructure, and event generators. Cross-cutting connections between experimental measurements, theoretical predictions, large-scale data analysis, and high-performance computing are emphasized.
Within this study, the presence and proportion of ideal and non-ideal combustion regimes is compared across a variety of process conditions and wave modes. Large-scale data analysis seeks to summarize proportional heat release associated with commensal, parasitic, and detonative combustion averaged across individual traces of OH* chemiluminescent data acquired at the detonation plane. Means of regime partitioning based on the anatomy of the time-resolved OH* signal are proposed to ensure consistent analysis throughout the current and future studies concerning combustion regimes.
Quantum detectors of single photons are an essential component for quantum information processing across computing, communication and networking. Today's quantum detection system, which consists of single photon detectors, timing electronics, control and data processing software, is primarily used for counting the number of single photon detection events. However, it is largely incapable of extracting other rich physical characteristics of the detected photons, such as their wavelengths, polarization states, photon numbers, or temporal waveforms. This work, for the first time, demonstrates a smart quantum detection system, SQuaD, which integrates a field programmable gate array (FPGA) with a neural network model, and is designed to recognize the features of photons and to eliminate detector dark-count. The SQuaD is a fully integrated quantum system with high timing-resolution data acquisition, onboard multi-scale data analysis, intelligent feature recognition and extraction, and feedback-driven system control. Our \name experimentally demonstrates 1) reliable photon counting on par with the state-of-the art commercial systems; 2) high-throughput data processing for each individual detection events; 3) efficient dark count recognition and elimination; 4) up to 100% accurate feature recognition of photon wavelength and polarization. Additionally, we deploy the SQuaD to an atomic (erbium ion) photon emitter source to realize noise-free control and readout of a spin qubit in the telecom band, enabling critical advances in quantum networks and distributed quantum information processing.
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We present cosmology results combining galaxy clustering and weak gravitational lensing measured in the full six years (Y6) of observations by the Dark Energy Survey (DES) covering $\sim$5000 deg$^2$. We perform a large-scale structure analysis using three two-point correlation functions (3$\times$2pt): (i) cosmic shear from 140 million source galaxy shapes, (ii) galaxy clustering of 9 million lens galaxy positions, and (iii) galaxy-galaxy lensing from their cross-correlation. We model the data in flat $Λ$CDM and $w$CDM cosmologies. The combined analysis yields $S_8\equiv σ_8 (Ω_{\rm m}/0.3)^{0.5} = 0.789^{+0.012}_{-0.012}$ and matter density $Ω_{\rm m} = 0.333^{+0.023}_{-0.028}$ in $Λ$CDM (68% CL), where $σ_8$ is the clustering amplitude. These constraints show a (full-space) parameter difference of 1.8$σ$ from a combination of cosmic microwave background (CMB) primary anisotropy datasets from Planck 2018, ACT-DR6, and SPT-3G DR1. Projected only into $S_8$ the difference is $2.6σ$. In $w$CDM the Y6 3$\times$2pt results yield $S_8 = 0.782^{+0.021}_{-0.020}$, $Ω_{\rm m} = 0.325^{+0.032}_{-0.035}$, and dark energy equation-of-state parameter $w = -1.12^{+0.26}_{-0.20}$. For the first time, we combine all DES dark-energy probes: 3$\times$2pt, SNe Ia, BAO and Clusters. In $Λ$CDM this combination yields a $2.8σ$ parameter difference from the CMB. When combining DES 3$\times$2pt with other low-redshift datasets (DESI DR2 BAO, DES SNe Ia, SPT clusters), we find a 2.3$σ$ parameter difference with CMB. A joint fit of Y6 3$\times$2pt, CMB, and those low-redshift datasets produces the tightest $Λ$CDM constraints to date: $S_8 = 0.806^{+0.006}_{-0.007}$, $Ω_{\rm m} = 0.302^{+0.003}_{-0.003}$, $h = 0.683^{+0.003}_{-0.002}$, and $\sum m_ν< 0.14$ eV (95% CL). In $w$CDM, this combination yields $w = -0.981^{+0.021}_{-0.022}$.
This paper proposes a measurement-informed dynamic aggregation methodology in order to create equivalent representations of distribution systems that are compatible with large-scale transmission analysis. By optimizing an equivalent feeder parameters using time-series measurements of active power, reactive power, and voltage at the Point of Interconnection (POI), the approach yields simplified yet dynamically accurate equivalents. Implemented in PSCAD with models of photovoltaic–battery systems, three-phase motors, and static loads, the method employs hybrid differential evolution and bounded least-squares optimization laying the foundation for for real-time state estimation and optimized sensor placement in distribution networks.
The Theory of Bottleneck Structures is a recently-developed framework for studying the performance of data networks. It describes how local perturbations in one part of the network propagate and interact with others. This framework is a powerful analytical tool that allows network operators to make accurate predictions about network behavior and thereby optimize performance. Previous work implemented a software package for bottleneck structure analysis, but applied it only to toy examples. In this work, we introduce the first software package capable of scaling bottleneck structure analysis to production-size networks. Here, we benchmark our system using logs from ESnet, the Department of Energy's high-performance data network that connects research institutions in the U.S. Using the previously published tool as a baseline, we demonstrate that our system achieves vastly improved performance, constructing the bottleneck structure graphs in 0.21 s and calculating link derivatives in 0.09 s on average. We also study the asymptotic complexity of our core algorithms, demonstrating good scaling properties and strong agreement with theoretical bounds. These results indicate that our new software package can maintain its fast performance when applied to even larger networks. They also show that our software is efficient enough to analyze rapidly changing networks in real time. Overall, we demonstrate the feasibility of applying bottleneck structure analysis to solve practical problems in large, real-world data networks.
ObjectiveThe application of spatial analysis to improve the awareness and use of surveillance data.IntroductionThe re-emergence of an infectious disease is dependent on social, political, behavioral, and disease-specific factors. Global disease surveillance is a requisite of early detection that facilitates coordinated interventions to these events. Novel informatics tools developed from publicly available data are constantly evolving with the incorporation of new data streams. Re-emerging Infectious Disease (RED) Alert is an open-source tool designed to help analysts develop a contextual framework when planning for future events, given what has occurred in the past. Geospatial methods assist researchers in making informed decisions by incorporating the power of place to better explain the relationships between variables.MethodsDisease incidence and indicator data derived for the RED Alert project were analyzed for spatial associations. Using aggregate country-level data, spatial and spatiotemporal clusters were identified in ArcMap 10.5.1. The identified clusters were then used as the outcome for a series of binary logistic regression models to determine significant covariates that help explain global hotspots. These methods will continue to evolve and be incorporated into the RED Alert decision support ecosystem to provide analysts with a global perspective on potential re-emergence.ResultsHotspots of high disease incidence in relation to neighboring countries were identified for measles, cholera, dengue, and yellow fever between 2000 and 2014. Disease-specific predictors were identified using aggregate estimates from World Bank indicator dataset. Data was imputed where possible to enhance the validity of the Gi * statistic for clustering. In the future, as data streams become more readily available, hotspot modeling at a finer resolution will help to improve the precision of spatial epidemiology.ConclusionsSpatial methods enhance the capability of understanding complex population and disease relationships, which in turn improves surveillance and the ability to predict re-emergence. With tools like RED Alert, public health analysts can better prepare to respond rapidly to future re-emerging disease threats.
The small scale wind velocity perturbations in vertical wind profiles at Cape Kennedy, Florida were analyzed in order to derive information for simulations of space shuttle ascent through the perturbed atmosphere. The available statistical data does not permit specification of various aspects of idealized singularities and wavelike perturbations with a reasonable degree of confidence. The information developed as a result of the analysis described in Section 3 of this report is suitable for the further development of idealized models. The term perturbation is used instead of the more common term, gust. According to the conventional approach, a gust profile is calculated by applying a high pass digital filter to a Jimsphere profile; all the speeds in the filtered profile are defined as gusts. The high pass filtered profile is defined as a residual profile and the maximum residual in the vicinity of a specified reference height is defined as the gust. Gusts defined in this manner represent the perturbation peaks. A detailed discussion of the calculation of residual profiles and gusts is given. The meteorological coordinate system, the data sample, and Jimsphere profiles are also described. Recommendations and conclusions are presented.
The TRMM Multi-satellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA) provides a calibration-based sequential scheme for combining multiple precipitation estimates from satellites, as well as gauge analyses where feasible, at fine scales (0.25 degrees x 0.25 degrees and 3-hourly). It is available both after and in real time, based on calibration by the TRMM Combined Instrument and TRMM Microwave Imager precipitation products, respectively. Only the after-real-time product incorporates gauge data at the present. The data set covers the latitude band 50 degrees N-S for the period 1998 to the delayed present. Early validation results are as follows: The TMPA provides reasonable performance at monthly scales, although it is shown to have precipitation rate dependent low bias due to lack of sensitivity to low precipitation rates in one of the input products (based on AMSU-B). At finer scales the TMPA is successful at approximately reproducing the surface-observation-based histogram of precipitation, as well as reasonably detecting large daily events. The TMPA, however, has lower skill in correctly specifying moderate and light event amounts on short time intervals, in common with other fine-scale estimators. Examples are provided of a flood event and diurnal cycle determination.
Injection of water-based hydraulic fracturing fluid (HFF) into tight shale gas/oil formations can increase formation permeability and enhance production rates, but this process frequently causes mineral scale formation that can occlude pore space and hinder flow. To identify the most important factors that control the formation of mineral scales, we applied a novel global sensitivity analysis method—distance-based generalized sensitivity analysis (DGSA)—to a reactive transport model (RTM) that was previously built and calibrated to simulate precipitation of barite [BaSO4] and iron (hydr)oxide [Fe(OH) 3 ] in shale matrices and on fracture surfaces. Reactive transport simulations were run with model parameters randomly sampled based on assigned uncertainties. Modeling results for barite and Fe(OH)3 formation were clustered using machine-learning algorithms. A list of ranked critical input parameters was obtained after statistical quantification of cumulative distribution functions of input parameters. We found that barite formation is most sensitive to the rate of sulfate ion generation, which is determined by the pyrite dissolution rate coefficient and oxidant availability. In addition, barite formation is sensitive to the initial amounts of barite in HFF and shale, followed by barite thermodynamics/kinetics. For Fe(OH) 3 formation, the ranked factors are Fe(OH)3 precipitation rate coefficients, initial HFF pH, initial Fe(OH) 3 amount in HFF, and oxidant availability. Overall, our results provide insights into managing mineral scale formation during hydraulic fracturing to enhance production. Meanwhile, this study serves as an example of global sensitivity analysis of RTMs using the efficient, straightforward, and open-source DGSA method.
Pyrolysis oils contain more than 400 compounds, up to 60% of which do not re-volatilize for subsequent chemical analysis. Vapor chemical composition is also complicated as additional condensation reactions occur during quenching and collection of the product. Due to the complexity of the pyrolysis oil, and a desire to catalytically upgrade the vapor composition before condensation, online real-time analytical techniques such as Molecular Beam Mass Spectrometry (MBMS) are of great use. However, in order to properly sample hot pyrolysis vapors at the pilot scale, many challenges must be overcome.
Three large scale advanced composite shear web components were tested and analyzed to evaluate application of the design concept to a space shuttle orbiter thrust structure. The shear web design concept consisted of a titanium-clad + or - 45 deg boron/epoxy web laminate stiffened with vertical boron/epoxy reinforced aluminum stiffeners. The design concept was evaluated to be efficient and practical for the application that was studied. Because of the effects of buckling deflections, a requirement is identified for shear buckling resistant design to maximize the efficiency of highly-loaded advanced composite shear webs. An approximate analysis of prebuckling deflections is presented and computer-aided design results, which consider prebuckling deformations, indicate that the design concept offers a theoretical weight saving of 31 percent relative to all metal construction. Recommendations are made for design concept options and analytical methods that are appropriate for production hardware.
New modeling and analysis techniques have been developed for predicting the dynamic behavior of the Next Generation Space Telescope (NGST) sunshield. The sunshield consists of multiple layers of pretensioned, thin-film membranes supported by deployable booms. Modeling the structural dynamic behavior of the sunshield is a challenging aspect of the problem due to the effects of membrane wrinkling. A finite element model of the sunshield was developed using an approximate engineering approach, the cable network method, to account for membrane wrinkling effects. Ground testing of a one-tenth scale model of the NGST sunshield were carried out to provide data for validating the analytical model. A series of analyses were performed to predict the behavior of the sunshield under the ground test conditions. Modal analyses were performed to predict the frequencies and mode shapes of the test article and transient response analyses were completed to simulate impulse excitation tests. Comparison was made between analytical predictions and test measurements for the dynamic behavior of the sunshield. In general, the results show good agreement with the analytical model correctly predicting the approximate frequency and mode shapes for the significant structural modes.
Adequate assessment of the uncertainties in modeling and simulation is becoming an integral part of the simulation based engineering design. The goal of this study is to demonstrate the application of non-intrusive Bayesian uncertainty quantification (UQ) methodology in multiphase (gas-solid) flows with experimental and simulation data, as part of our research efforts to determine the most suited approach for UQ of a bench scale fluidized bed gasifier. UQ analysis was first performed on the available experimental data. Global sensitivity analysis performed as part of the UQ analysis shows that among the three operating factors, steam to oxygen ratio has the most influence on syngas composition in the bench-scale gasifier experiments. An analysis for forward propagation of uncertainties was performed and results show that an increase in steam to oxygen ratio leads to an increase in H2 mole fraction and a decrease in CO mole fraction. These findings are in agreement with the ANOVA analysis performed in the reference experimental study. Another contribution in addition to the UQ analysis is the optimization-based approach to guide to identify next best set of additional experimental samples, should the possibility arise for additional experiments. Hence, the surrogate models constructed as part of the UQ analysis is employed to improve the information gain and make incremental recommendation, should the possibility to add more experiments arise. In the second step, series of simulations were carried out with the open-source computational fluid dynamics software MFiX to reproduce the experimental conditions, where three operating factors, i.e., coal flow rate, coal particle diameter, and steam-to-oxygen ratio, were systematically varied to understand their effect on the syngas composition. Bayesian UQ analysis was performed on the numerical results. As part of Bayesian UQ analysis, a global sensitivity analysis was performed based on the simulation results, which shows that the predicted syngas composition is strongly affected not only by the steam-to-oxygen ratio (which was observed in experiments as well) but also by variation in the coal flow rate and particle diameter (which was not observed in experiments). The carbon monoxide mole fraction is underpredicted at lower steam-to-oxygen ratios and overpredicted at higher steam-to-oxygen ratios. The opposite trend is observed for the carbon dioxide mole fraction. These discrepancies are attributed to either excessive segregation of the phases that leads to the fuel-rich or -lean regions or alternatively the selection of reaction models, where different reaction models and kinetics can lead to different syngas compositions throughout the gasifier. To improve quality of numerical models used, the effect that uncertainties in reaction models for gasification, char oxidation, carbon monoxide oxidation, and water gas shift will have on the syngas composition at different grid resolution, along with bed temperature were investigated. The global sensitivity analysis showed that among various reaction models employed for water gas shift, gasification, char oxidation, the choice of reaction model for water gas shift has the greatest influence on syngas composition, with gasification reaction model being second. Syngas composition also shows a small sensitivity to temperature of the bed. The hydrodynamic behavior of the bed did not change beyond grid spacing of 18 times the particle diameter. However, the syngas concentration continued to be affected by the grid resolution as low as 9 times the particle diameter. This is due to a better resolution of the phasic interface between the gases and solid that leads to stronger heterogeneous reactions. This report is a compilation of three manuscripts published in peer-reviewed journals for the series of studies mentioned above.