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DOE OSTI2025

Exploring Water System Vulnerabilities in California's Central Valley Under the Late Renaissance Megadrought and Climate Change

Abstract California faces cycles of drought and flooding that are projected to intensify, but these extremes may impact water users across the state differently due to the region's natural hydroclimate variability and complex institutional framework governing water deliveries. To assess these risks, this study introduces a novel exploratory modeling framework informed by paleo and climate‐change based scenarios to better understand how impacts propagate through the Central Valley's complex water system. A stochastic weather generator, conditioned on tree‐ring data, produces a large ensemble of daily weather sequences conditioned on drought and flood conditions under the Late Renaissance Megadrought period (1550–1580 CE). Regional climate changes are applied to this weather data and drive hydrologic projections for the Sacramento, San Joaquin, and Tulare Basins. The resulting streamflow ensembles are used in an exploratory stress test using the California Food‐Energy‐Water System model, a highly resolved, daily model of water storage and conveyance throughout California's Central Valley. Results show that megadrought conditions lead to unprecedented reductions in inflows and storage at major California reservoirs. Both junior and senior water rights holders experience multi‐year periods of curtailed water deliveries and complete drawdowns of groundwater assets. When megadrought dynamics are combined with climate change, risks for unprecedented depletion of reservoir storage and sustained curtailment of water deliveries across multiple years increase. Asymmetries in risk emerge depending on water source, rights, and access to groundwater banks.

Gupta, Rohini S. [School of Civil and Environmenta↗

DOE OSTI2021

Rethinking solar PV contracts in a world of increasing curtailment risk

Not Available

O'Shaughnessy, Eric↗

NASA NTRS2019

A Ground Footprint Eccentricity Model For Asteroid Airbursts

Uncertainties in early observations of potentially hazardous asteroids result in preliminary impact corridors that can stretch across large portions of the Earth’s surface. At this early stage of detection, the corridor width and potential for damage are typically estimated using techniques from nuclear weapons research. These estimates often employ spherical blast assumptions resulting in a constant width impact corridor. In actuality, however, the ground damage footprint of obliquely entering asteroids is generally roughly elliptical or “butterfly” shaped, with the major axis extending in the cross range direction and the minor axis aligned with ground-track of the meteoroid. Since actual ground footprints for oblique entries may have aspect ratios greater than two or three, the assumption of a circular blast may significantly underestimate the area of the impact swath and the at-risk population. This work develops an engineering model that can be used to quickly estimate the eccentricity of the ground footprint as a function of local impact parameters. This yields vastly improved local estimates of the corridor width and can significantly enhance the accuracy of risk analysis.

Aftosmis, Michael J.↗

DOE OSTI2021

A Multi-Objective Bayesian Optimization Approach Using the Weighted Tchebycheff Method

Abstract Bayesian optimization (BO) is a low-cost global optimization tool for expensive black-box objective functions, where we learn from prior evaluated designs, update a posterior surrogate Gaussian process model, and select new designs for future evaluation using an acquisition function. This research focuses upon developing a BO model with multiple black-box objective functions. In the standard multi-objective (MO) optimization problem, the weighted Tchebycheff method is efficiently used to find both convex and non-convex Pareto frontiers. This approach requires knowledge of utopia values before we start optimization. However, in the BO framework, since the functions are expensive to evaluate, it is very expensive to obtain the utopia values as a prior knowledge. Therefore, in this paper, we develop a MO-BO framework where we calibrate with multiple linear regression (MLR) models to estimate the utopia value for each objective as a function of design input variables; the models are updated iteratively with sampled training data from the proposed MO-BO. These iteratively estimated mean utopia values are used to formulate the weighted Tchebycheff MO acquisition function. The proposed approach is implemented in two numerical test examples and one engineering design problem of optimizing thin tube geometries under constant loading of temperature and pressure, with minimizing the risk of creep-fatigue failure and design cost, along with risk-based and manufacturing constraints. Finally, the model accuracy with frequentist, Bayesian and without MLR-based calibration are compared to true Pareto solutions.

Engineering↗

NASA NTRS2016

Development and Evaluation of High-Resolution Climate Simulations Over the Mountainous Northeastern United States

The mountain regions of the northeastern United States are a critical socioeconomic resource for Vermont, New York State, New Hampshire, Maine, and southern Quebec. While global climate models (GCMs) are important tools for climate change risk assessment at regional scales, even the increased spatial resolution of statistically downscaled GCMs (commonly approximately 1/ 8 deg) is not sufficient for hydrologic, ecologic, and land-use modeling of small watersheds within the mountainous Northeast. To address this limitation, an ensemble of topographically downscaled, high-resolution (30"), daily 2-m maximum air temperature; 2-m minimum air temperature; and precipitation simulations are developed for the mountainous Northeast by applying an additional level of downscaling to intermediately downscaled (1/ 8 deg) data using high-resolution topography and station observations. First, observed relationships between 2-m air temperature and elevation and between precipitation and elevation are derived. Then, these relationships are combined with spatial interpolation to enhance the resolution of intermediately downscaled GCM simulations. The resulting topographically downscaled dataset is analyzed for its ability to reproduce station observations. Topographic downscaling adds value to intermediately downscaled maximum and minimum 2-m air temperature at high-elevation stations, as well as moderately improves domain-averaged maximum and minimum 2-m air temperature. Topographic downscaling also improves mean precipitation but not daily probability distributions of precipitation. Overall, the utility of topographic downscaling is dependent on the initial bias of the intermediately downscaled product and the magnitude of the elevation adjustment. As the initial bias or elevation adjustment increases, more value is added to the topographically downscaled product.

climatology↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

NASA GeneLab Platform Utilized for Biological Response to Space Radiation in Animal Models

Ionizing radiation from Galactic Cosmic Rays (GCR) is one of the major risk factors that will impact the health of astronauts on extended missions outside the protective effects of Earth’s magnetic field. The NASA GeneLab project has detailed information on radiation exposure using animal models with curated dosimetry information for spaceflight experiments. We analyzed multiple GeneLab omics datasets associated with both ground-based and spaceflight radiation studies that included in vivo and in vitro approaches. A range of ions from protons to iron particles with doses from 0.1 Gy to 1.0 Gy for ground studies and samples flown in Low Earth Orbit (LEO) with total doses of 1.0 mGy to 30 mGy were utilized From this analysis we were able to identify distinct biological signatures associating specific ions with specific biological responses due to radiation exposure in space. For example, we discovered changes in mitochondrial function, ribosomal assembly, and immune pathways as a function of dose. We provided a summary of how the GeneLab’s rich database of omics experiments with animal models can be used to generate novel hypotheses to better understand human health risks from GCR exposures.

Afshin Beheshti↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Recent Advancements in the PATO Material Response Code

Introduction: Predicting the complicated multiphysics phenomena during atmospheric entry requires high-fidelity modeling tools to refine estimates of mission risks during entry. To this end, new capabilities are being added to the Porous-material Analysis Toolbox based on OpenFOAM (PATO). PATO is an open-source software for Computational Material Response (CMR) of reactive porous materials submitted to high-temperature environments. The objective of this work is to highlight current efforts to add to and improve upon the modeling capabilities of PATO. These include efforts to loosely couple PATO with other discipline specialized codes including hypersonic Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD), to assess the interaction effects between pyrolysis gas blowing and the boundary layer, and Computational Solid Mechanics (CSM), to address modeling of mechanical erosion. Other refinements include surface phenomena modeling capabilities to address the effects of silicone-based coatings applied to the TPS during flight preparation, and a unified multiphase solver for a mixed porous-material and plain-fluid domain. Coupling CMR with CFD (CMR/CFD): A loose coupling between PATO and the Data Parallel Line Relaxation (DPLR) CFD code has been achieved by making use of a blowing boundary condition at the heatshield surface available in DPLR. Starting with heat flux estimates with no pyrolysis gas blowing at the surface, blowing gases are computed by the CMR and passed to the CFD such that aerothermal properties of the environment can be recomputed for a new CMR computation. This leads to an iterative process which is supplemented with an estimate of the radiative heat flux using the Nonequilibrium air radiation (NEQAIR) program. The entire iterative process is illustrated in Figure 1. This coupling strategy has been utilized in computing the MSL material response. The goal is to compare the coupled CMR/CFD results with material response results obtained using traditional blowing corrections. Coupling CMS with CMR: A mechanical erosion model is currently being implemented in PATO to account for the additional mass removal induced by high shear conditions. The modeling process at each timestep consists of updating the mechanical properties as a function of temperature and computing the stress tensor and displacement fields of the material. Then, a failure criteria model determines the regions in which the stress exceeds the ultimate strength values resulting in mesh movement to account for mass removal. This model allows the material response simulation to compute the recession due to both oxidation and shear-induced erosion. The model is demonstrated by computing material response of sphere-cone arc jet samples. Surface Modeling Capabilities: NuSil, a silicone-based coating, was sprayed onto the MSL and Mars 2020 heatshields to mitigate shedding of phenolic dust. To better understand the effects of the NuSil coating on the material response, a novel model has been implemented in PATO. In this model, the equilibrium of the charred NuSil surface is modeled as pure silica, and a constant offset, inspired by the classical spallation model, is added to the the char blowing rate and wall enthalpy to reproduce HyMETS experimental results. The model has also been used to estimate the 3D material response of the MSL heatshield. Unified Solver: In addition to the iterative loose coupling approach mentioned above, a multiphase unified solver is being developed to couple the environment (plain-fluid phase) and the porous-material phase. The solver is based on the volume averaged conservation of mass, momentum, and energy for the macroscale with closure models which include microscale effects through effective physicochemical properties. The unified solver has been used to compute flow through a porous plug and solve the Beavers and Joseph problem. Since the strong coupling between phases is inherent to this solver, modeling assumptions present in other coupling methods of material response are mitigated. This strategy also makes it feasible to capture the competition between surface and volume ablation in the same computational domain, which is usually not possible with other coupling approaches.

Material Response↗

DOE OSTI2020

A systematic strategy for estimating hERG block potency and its implications in a new cardiac safety paradigm

Introduction: hERG block potency is widely used to calculate a drug's safety margin against its torsadogenic potential. Previous studies are confounded by use of different patch clamp electrophysiology protocols and a lack of statistical quantification of experimental variability. Since the new cardiac safety paradigm being discussed by the International Council for Harmonisation promotes a tighter integration of nonclinical and clinical data for torsadogenic risk assessment, a more systematic approach to estimate the hERG block potency and safety margin is needed. Methods: A cross-industry study was performed to collect hERG data on 28 drugs with known torsadogenic risk using a standardized experimental protocol. A Bayesian hierarchical modeling (BHM) approach was used to assess the hERG block potency of these drugs by quantifying both the inter-site and intra-site variability. A modeling and simulation study was also done to evaluate protocol-dependent changes in hERG potency estimates. Results: A systematic approach to estimate hERG block potency is established. The impact of choosing a safety margin threshold on torsadogenic risk evaluation is explored based on the posterior distributions of hERG potency estimated by this method. The modeling and simulation results suggest any potency estimate is specific to the protocol used. Discussion: This methodology can estimate hERG block potency specific to a given voltage protocol. The relationship between safety margin thresholds and torsadogenic risk predictivity suggests the threshold should be tailored to each specific context of use, and safety margin evaluation may need to be integrated with other information to form a more comprehensive risk assessment.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Fusion Fuel Cycle Inventory Reduction Studies Using a Processing-Time–Based Discrete-Time Interval Model

Developing a Fusion Pilot Plant (FPP) design that minimizes risks due to tritium in-process inventory (IPI) is an important concern for the operation of commercial devices. This becomes even more of concern since an FPP will be breeding more tritium than is burned in the reactor for sustainability. The IPI is the tritium moving through the system that is not in the storage and delivery subsystem. Here a process model that solves time-dependent differential equations based on processing times was used to investigate the reduction of the IPI of a potential fuel cycle design. The impact of new and more efficient technologies such as direct internal recycling (DIR), metal foil pumps, continuous pumping, improved isotope separation, and hydrogen separating continuous pumps on IPI was investigated by adjusting subsystem processing times and material flow streams. It was shown that any of the insertions of DIR studied in this paper caused a reduction in the total IPI of the system and proved to be the optimal way to reduce the IPI in the system. Fuel cycle modifications near the torus, such as a coupled DIR and improved pumping systems, produced the largest reductions in tritium inventory.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

NASA NTRS2024

NASA’s Top Human System Research and Technology Needs for Mars

NASA is working with industry and international partners to return humans to the Moon and to eventually enable humans to explore Mars. Within NASA, several organizations work together to identify, prioritize, fund, execute, and operationalize the research and technology development (R&TD) that will be necessary to enable crew health and performance (CHP) during these future missions. These organizations include flight programs, the Health and Medical Technical Authority (HMTA), the Human Research Program, the Space Technology Mission Directorate, System Capability Leadership Teams, and other organizations, many of which existed for several years prior to the creation of the Moon-to-Mars (M2M) Program Office in 2023. A variety of constructs, vocabularies, and processes exist for managing risks and supporting strategic planning across these organizations. For example, M2M objectives, program risks, human system risks, human research gaps, capability gaps, and envisioned futures are all constructs currently used within NASA to identify and prioritize R&TD needs. These strategic planning constructs are evolving to allow M2M objectives and R&TD investments to be aligned and traced at a detailed level. A recognized need exists among stakeholder organizations to identify and communicate the highest CHP R&TD priorities in a unified and digestible way that addresses the perspectives of NASA’s CHP community. To achieve this, the HMTA arranged a series of discussions with representatives of NASA’s CHP community, during which the 8 highest priority CHP capabilities that will enable human missions to Mars, referred to as the “top human system capability needs for Mars”, were identified. The list includes Earth-independent human operations; Mars-duration food system; Mars-duration effects on human physiology; risk mitigations for vehicle atmospheres; computational injury and anthropometric models; exploration exercise countermeasures; individual variability in responses to spaceflight; and sensorimotor countermeasures. Existing tools and processes for strategic planning and risk management were evaluated, as well as the technical practicalities, cost, and schedule feasibility associated with potential R&TD investments in different capability need areas. This capability needs report is not owned by any one NASA organization and does not replace existing strategic or program planning processes; rather it aims to complement and inform them with a unified set of community generated priorities. These top capability needs will be re-evaluated periodically based on R&TD progress and the evolving M2M architecture.

technology gaps↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

NASA’s Top Human System Research and Technology Needs for Mars

technology gaps↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Recent Advancements in the PATO Material Response Code

Introduction: Predicting the complicated multiphysics phenomena during atmospheric entry requires high-fidelity modeling tools to refine estimates of mission risks during entry. To this end, new capabilities are being added to the Porous-material Analysis Toolbox based on OpenFOAM (PATO) [1,2,3]. PATO is an open-source software for Computational Material Response (CMR) of reactive porous materials submitted to high-temperature environments. The objective of this work is to highlight current efforts to add to and improve upon the modeling capabilities of PATO. These include efforts to loosely couple PATO with other discipline specialized codes including hypersonic Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD), to assess the interaction effects between pyrolysis gas blowing and the boundary layer, and Computational Solid Mechanics (CSM), to address modeling of mechanical erosion. Other refinements include surface phenomena modeling capabilities to address the effects of silicone-based coatings applied to the TPS during flight preparation, and a unified multiphase solver for a mixed porous-material and plain-fluid domain. Coupling CMR with CFD (CMR/CFD): A loose coupling between PATO and the Data Parallel Line Relaxation (DPLR) [4] CFD code has been achieved by making use of a blowing boundary condition at the heatshield surface available in DPLR. Starting with heat flux estimates with no pyrolysis gas blowing at the surface, blowing gases are computed by the CMR and passed to the CFD such that aerothermal properties of the environment can be recomputed for a new CMR computation. This leads to an iterative process which is supplemented with an estimate of the radiative heat flux using the Nonequilibrium air radiation (NEQAIR) [5] program. The entire iterative process is illustrated in Figure 1. This coupling strategy has been utilized in computing the MSL material response. The goal is to compare the coupled CMR/CFD results with material response results obtained using traditional blowing corrections. Coupling CMS with CMR: A mechanical erosion model is currently being implemented in PATO to account for the additional mass removal induced by high shear conditions. The modeling process at each timestep consists of updating the mechanical properties as a function of temperature and computing the stress tensor and displacement fields of the material. Then, a failure criteria model determines the regions in which the stress exceeds the ultimate strength values resulting in mesh movement to account for mass removal. This model allows the material response simulation to compute the recession due to both oxidation and shear-induced erosion. The model is demonstrated by computing material response of sphere-cone arc jet samples. Surface Modeling Capabilities: NuSil, a silicone-based coating, was sprayed onto the MSL and Mars 2020 heatshields to mitigate shedding of phenolic dust. To better understand the effects of the NuSil coating on the material response, a novel model has been implemented in PATO. In this model, the equilibrium of the charred NuSil surface is modeled as pure silica, and a constant offset, inspired by the classical spallation model, is added to the the char blowing rate and wall enthalpy to reproduce HyMETS experimental results. The model has also been used to estimate the 3D material response of the MSL heatshield [6]. Unified Solver: In addition to the iterative loose coupling approach mentioned above, a multiphase unified solver is being developed to couple the environment (plain-fluid phase) and the porous-material phase. The solver is based on the volume averaged conservation of mass, momentum, and energy for the macroscale with closure models which include microscale effects through effective physicochemical properties. The unified solver has been used to compute flow through a porous plug and solve the Beavers and Joseph problem [7]. Since the strong coupling between phases is inherent to this solver, modeling assumptions present in other coupling methods of material response are mitigated. This strategy also makes it feasible to capture the competition between surface and volume ablation in the same computational domain, which is usually not possible with other coupling approaches.

Thermal Protection Systems↗

NASA NTRS2020

Enabling Assurance in the MBSE Environment

A number of specific benefits that fit within the hallmarks of effective development are realized with implementation of model-based approaches to systems and assurance. Model Based Systems Engineering (MBSE) enabled by standardized modeling languages (e.g., SysML®) is at the core. These benefits in the context of spaceflight system challenges can include [1]: • Improved management of complex development • Reduced risk in the development process • Improved cost management • Improved design decisions With appropriate modeling techniques the assurance community also can improve early oversight and insight into project development. NASA has shown the basic constructs of SysML in an MBSE environment offer several key advantages, within a Model Based Mission Assurance (MBMA) initiative [2, 3]. These include the following: • Model viewpoints that promote rapid and systematic assessment of requirements coverage, hazard tagging and risk management • Embedded safety assessments for launch vehicles • Deployment of model assisted development of reliability products - Failure Modes and Effects Analyses (FMEAs) and Fault Trees • Test Planning • Validation and Verification of complex functions • Support of Assurance Case development for complex systems In addition, while there are benefits to be harvested, there is a realization that these do not come without effort and cost. Enabling model-based approaches requires structure, not only in an organizational context, but in a modeling context as well. There can be a steep learning curve and costs associated to train skilled modelers. But, on the other hand, not all of the assurance community need to be modelers. Models themselves must conform to ontologies that enable assurance. This places constraints upon the models and modelers. Optimums have yet to be developed where resources and constraints on modeling must be traded off in the organization and modeling efforts for projects. A number of barriers need to be overcome, as well, which pose challenges to the developers of the software that supports MBSE/MBMA. Information and data must be made to flow seamlessly through the life cycle. Because there is a wide variety of tools used in the community, to avoid the problems of the past of silos, delays, and diverging interests, information should flow among these tools to support the “single source of truth” paradigm of MBSE. This will greatly facilitate MBMA and advancement of assurance functions.

Evans, John W.↗

DOE OSTI2024

Future North Atlantic tropical cyclone intensities in thermodynamically modified historical environments

Tropical cyclones (TCs) rank as the deadliest and most financially crippling natural disasters in the United States for the last half-century. It is imperative to assess potential shifts in TC intensity within the paradigm of an evolving climate. In this study, we have modeled the intensities of 620 historical TC events in the North Atlantic Basin using the Risk Analysis Framework for Tropical Cyclones (RAFT)'s deep learning intensity model. By applying a thermodynamic warming signal extrapolated from Global Climate Models, we rerun historical events under eight different future climate scenarios, providing a spectrum of potential TC intensity outcomes. One of the future simulations indicates a staggering 43% increase in the number of major hurricanes, underscoring the critical impact of climate change on TC intensity. Additionally, an interactive dashboard has been created to enable users to explore individual storm simulations and understand the influence of future climate signals on environmental conditions of TC development and resulting TC intensities. This dataset and the user-friendly tool offer invaluable resources for systematic exploration of the discrete effects that changes in the air-sea thermodynamic state have on the intensities of TCs.

Climate Change↗

DOE OSTI2020

Optimization Framework to Assess the Demand Response Capacity of a Water Distribution System

As large electricity consumers, water distribution system (WDS) pumping stations have the potential to become meaningful participants in demand response (DR) programs. The authors propose an optimization framework for assessing the DR capacity of a WDS and identifying the optimal bidding strategy for maximizing WDS revenue in the DR spot market. The proposed mixed integer linear programming (MILP) model overcomes computational constraints of previous DR optimization models by adopting a preprocessing procedure to minimize the number of binary variables and implementing a convex relaxation technique to linearize the hydraulic equations. The proposed MILP model also explicitly accounts for varying levels of risk tolerance of WDS operators by varying the recovery period over which pumping returns to business-as-usual operation. The optimization framework is implemented on a skeletonized 48-node WDS model that includes 7 pumps, 6 tanks, and 39 pipes. Using a simulated DR event and water consumption profile, the authors derive the optimal DR supply curves (i.e., compensation price versus load curtailment quantity) and revenue potential of the WDS under six scenarios for DR participation.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

NASA NTRS1998

In-Situ Resource Utilization (ISRU) Development Program

The question "Why In-Situ Resource Utilization (ISRU)?" is addressed in this presentation. The reasons given concentrate on Cost reduction, Mass reduction, Risk reduction, the expansion of human exploration and presence and the enabling of industrial exploitation. A review of the Martian and Lunar resources available for ISRU is presented. Other ISRU concepts (i.e., In-Situ Consumable production (ISCP) and In-Situ Propellant Production (ISPP)) are introduced and further explained. The objectives of a Mars ISRU System Technology (MIST) include (1) the characterization of technology and subsystem performance for mission modeling and technology funding planning, (2) reduce risk and concerns arising from sample return and human missions utilizing ISRU, and (3) demonstrate the environmental suitability of ISRU components/processes and systems. A proof of concept demonstration schedule and a facility overview for MIST is presented.

Sanders, Jerry↗

DOE OSTI2023

Risk-Constrained Reinforcement Learning for Inverter-Dominated Power System Controls

Here, this paper develops a risk-aware controller for grid-forming inverters (GFMs) to minimize large frequency oscillations in GFM inverter-dominated power systems. To tackle the high variability from loads/renewables, we incorporate a mean-variance risk constraint into the classical linear quadratic regulator (LQR) formulation for this problem. The risk constraint aims to bound the time-averaged cost of state variability and thus can improve the worst-case performance for large disturbances. The resulting risk-constrained LQR problem is solved through the dual reformulation to a minimax problem, by using a reinforcement learning (RL) method termed as stochastic gradient-descent with max-oracle (SGDmax). In particular, the zero-order policy gradient (ZOPG) approach is used to simplify the gradient estimation using simulated system trajectories. Numerical tests conducted on the IEEE 68-bus system have validated the convergence of our proposed SGDmax for GFM model and corroborate the effectiveness of the risk constraint in improving the worst-case performance while reducing the variability of the overall control cost.

Frequency control↗

NASA NTRS2003

Optimizing spacecraft design - optimization engine development : progress and plans

At JPL and NASA, a process has been developed to perform life cycle risk management. This process requires users to identify: goals and objectives to be achieved (and their relative priorities), the various risks to achieving those goals and objectives, and options for risk mitigation (prevention, detection ahead of time, and alleviation). Risks are broadly defined to include the risk of failing to design a system with adequate performance, compatibility and robustness in addition to more traditional implementation and operational risks. The options for mitigating these different kinds of risks can include architectural and design choices, technology plans and technology back-up options, test-bed and simulation options, engineering models and hardware/software development techniques and other more traditional risk reduction techniques.

risk↗