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DOE OSTI2025

Machine learning and process-based modeling of spatiotemporal changes in active layer thickness across Alaska

Permafrost degradation poses a growing threat to infrastructure stability and ecosystem resilience in the rapidly warming Arctic. We investigated the spatiotemporal dynamics of active layer thickness (ALT) across Alaska by integrating field observations, environmental datasets, a physically based Stefan model, and machine learning (ML) techniques. Using weather projections from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 under two Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP 2-4.5 and SSP 5-8.5), we assessed ALT sensitivity to projected future weather conditions. The random forest (RF) model outperformed the Stefan approach in predicting ALT on the training dataset (R² = 0.84 vs. 0.53) but demonstrated lower generalizability on the test dataset (R² = 0.24 vs. 0.54). The root mean square error (RMSE) for the RF model for training and testing ranged from 14 to 22 cm, compared to 17 and 18 cm for the Stefan model. Variable importance analysis revealed that mean annual temperature and slope angle were the strongest predictors of ALT, accounting for 19% and 18% of the variance, respectively, followed by sediment transport index (14%) and stream power index (11%). Comparative analysis of baseline ALT predictions showed the Stefan model tended to project a thicker active layer (mean ± SD: 65 ± 16 cm), compared to the RF model (mean ± SD: 59 ± 8.8) cm). Both models indicated a latitudinal gradient in ALT, with shallower depths at higher latitudes. Projected ALT increases by 2100 were estimated at 3.3 ± 2.2 cm under SSP 2-4.5 and 5.9 ± 4.0 cm under SSP 5-8.5 for the ML model, whereas the Stefan model projected substantially larger increases of 13 ± 2.6 cm (SSP 2-4.5) and 28 ± 4.4 cm (SSP5-8.5). Spatial analysis showed the greatest ALT increases in northern Alaska, with relatively smaller changes in southern regions. These findings highlight the complex, multifactorial nature of ALT dynamics and the value of hybrid modeling approaches. As rising temperatures accelerate permafrost thaw, changes in ALT can disrupt ecosystems, damage infrastructures, and enhance the release of stored soil carbon, highlighting the urgent need for improved predictive capabilities to inform adaptation strategies in the Arctic.

Climate sciences↗

DOE OSTI2020

Efficient 3-D velocity model building using joint inline and crossline plane-wave wave-equation migration velocity analyses

SUMMARY Wave-equation migration velocity analysis (WEMVA) is an image-domain inversion method for velocity model building. Automatic plane-wave WEMVA (PWEMVA) calculates the moveouts of plane-wave common-image gathers (CIGs) by searching a best-fitting parabola with semblance analysis and backprojects residual CIG moveouts into wavefield wave paths with a reflection tomographic kernel. However, 3-D PWEMVA is very computationally expensive because 3-D reflection tomographic inversion requires at least five 3-D reverse-time migrations per iteration and stores two types of source wavefields at model boundaries. We develop a joint inline and crossline PWEMVA method for efficient 3-D velocity model building. We alternatively implement the inline and crossline PWEMVAs with a constraint for each other, in which we iteratively construct the 3-D velocity model update through 1-D spline interpolation of 2-D gradients. The inline and crossline joint inversion is practical since PWEMVA only inverts for low-wavenumber velocity perturbations along wave paths, and the method can take less than 1 per cent of the computational cost of full 3-D PWEMVA. To construct unaliased plane waves for our joint inline and crossline PWEMVA, we develop a 3-D data interpolation method in the frequency–wavenumber (FK) domain to recover regularly and randomly missing traces. The method minimizes the misfit on sufficiently localized data subsets with iterative optimal step lengths and a gradient preconditioner that iteratively selects dominant dips along different azimuths. In numerical experiments, we use a 3-D synthetic seismic data set and a land 3-D field seismic data set acquired at the Farnsworth CO2-EOR (enhanced oil recovery) field to demonstrate the efficacy of our velocity model building and data interpolation methods.

Liu, Xuejian↗

DOE OSTI2021

A Hierarchical Feature-Based Methodology to Perform Cervical Cancer Classification

Prevention of cervical cancer could be performed using Pap smear image analysis. This test screens pre-neoplastic changes in the cervical epithelial cells; accurate screening can reduce deaths caused by the disease. Pap smear test analysis is exhaustive and repetitive work performed visually by a cytopathologist. This article proposes a workload-reducing algorithm for cervical cancer detection based on analysis of cell nuclei features within Pap smear images. We investigate eight traditional machine learning methods to perform a hierarchical classification. We propose a hierarchical classification methodology for computer-aided screening of cell lesions, which can recommend fields of view from the microscopy image based on the nuclei detection of cervical cells. We evaluate the performance of several algorithms against the Herlev and CRIC databases, using a varying number of classes during image classification. Results indicate that the hierarchical classification performed best when using Random Forest as the key classifier, particularly when compared with decision trees, k-NN, and the Ridge methods.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Spatial patterns of snow distribution in the sub-Arctic

Abstract. The spatial distribution of snow plays a vital role in sub-Arctic and Arctic climate, hydrology, and ecology due to its fundamental influence on the water balance, thermal regimes, vegetation, and carbon flux. However, the spatial distribution of snow is not well understood, and therefore, it is not well modeled, which can lead to substantial uncertainties in snow cover representations. To capture key hydro-ecological controls on snow spatial distribution, we carried out intensive field studies over multiple years for two small (2017–2019; ∼ 2.5 km2) sub-Arctic study sites located on the Seward Peninsula of Alaska. Using an intensive suite of field observations (> 22 000 data points), we developed simple models of the spatial distribution of snow water equivalent (SWE) using factors such as topographic characteristics, vegetation characteristics based on greenness (normalized different vegetation index, NDVI), and a simple metric for approximating winds. The most successful model was random forest, using both study sites and all years, which was able to accurately capture the complexity and variability of snow characteristics across the sites. Approximately 86 % of the SWE distribution could be accounted for, on average, by the random forest model at the study sites. Factors that impacted year-to-year snow distribution included NDVI, elevation, and a metric to represent coarse microtopography (topographic position index, TPI), while slope, wind, and fine microtopography factors were less important. The characterization of the SWE spatial distribution patterns will be used to validate and improve snow distribution modeling in the Department of Energy's Earth system model and for improved understanding of hydrology, topography, and vegetation dynamics in the sub-Arctic and Arctic regions of the globe.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS1995

Estimating errors in least-squares fitting

While least-squares fitting procedures are commonly used in data analysis and are extensively discussed in the literature devoted to this subject, the proper assessment of errors resulting from such fits has received relatively little attention. The present work considers statistical errors in the fitted parameters, as well as in the values of the fitted function itself, resulting from random errors in the data. Expressions are derived for the standard error of the fit, as a function of the independent variable, for the general nonlinear and linear fitting problems. Additionally, closed-form expressions are derived for some examples commonly encountered in the scientific and engineering fields, namely ordinary polynomial and Gaussian fitting functions. These results have direct application to the assessment of the antenna gain and system temperature characteristics, in addition to a broad range of problems in data analysis. The effects of the nature of the data and the choice of fitting function on the ability to accurately model the system under study are discussed, and some general rules are deduced to assist workers intent on maximizing the amount of information obtained form a given set of measurements.

Richter, P. H.↗

NASA NTRS2001

Analysis of GPS Data Collected on the Greenland Ice Sheet

For several years, GPS observations have been made year round at the Swiss Camp, Greenland. The GPS data are recorded for 12 hours every 10-15 days; data are stored in memory and downloaded during the annual field season. Traditional GPS analysis techniques, where the receiver is assumed not to move within a 24 hour period, is not appropriate at the Swiss Camp, where horizontal velocities are on the order of 30 cm/day. Comparison of analysis strategies for these GPS data indicate that a random walk parameterization, with a constraint of 1-2 x 10(exp -7) km/sqrt(sec) minimizes noise due to satellite outages without corrupting the estimated ice velocity. Low elevation angle observations should be included in the analysis in order to increase the number of satellites viewed at each data epoch. Carrier phase ambiguity resolution is important for improving the accuracy of receiver coordinates.

Larson, K.↗

NASA NTRS2018

Design and Development of Modules to Support Live Microscopic Imaging on Ground-Based Microgravity Simulators

In space, astronauts are exposed to environmental stressors that often result in physiological changes. One prominent stressor in spaceflight is microgravity, and research has shown that long term microgravity exposure causes muscle atrophy, bone loss, cardiovascular concerns, and vision impairment. It is critical to understand how altered gravity affects physiology on the cellular, molecular, and gene level in order to accurately assess health risks and to develop effective countermeasures. Ground-based microgravity simulators such as random positioning machines (RPMs) are used to produce some of the biological effects of altered gravity on different cell types and organisms. Real-time imaging during simulations are of particular interest as we can study how basic cell functions such as cell division, cell migration, and proliferation progress under microgravity conditions. However, design limitations of present microgravity simulators such as susceptibility to parasitic vibration and displacement of the sample from the center of rotation challenge the accuracy of experiment results and live images. We have developed a cell culture sample holder module suitable for live microscopic imaging on an RPM. CAD modeling and 3D printing technology were used to implement modifications to the sample holder and to install a digital microscope to perform live bright-field and fluorescent imaging. Vibration damping materials were also investigated to allow for stable imaging while the microgravity simulator was within a cell culture incubator. Novel methods and hardware modifications for improving live cell imaging on ground-based microgravity simulators were proposed and discussed.

3D printing↗

DOE OSTI2020

Unraveling the dislocation–precipitate interactions in high-entropy alloys

The precipitates play a significant role in not only enhancing the strength, but also maintaining the high toughness in alloys. However, the interactions of the nanoscale precipitates with dislocations in the high entropy alloys (HEAs) are difficult to observe directly by in-situ TEM experiments due to the limits of the resolution and time. Here, using atomic simulations we report the synergistic strengthening of the coherent precipitate and atomic-scale lattice distortion in the HEAs at cryogenic/elevated temperatures. The effects of temperature, chemical disorder, precipitate spacing, precipitate size, elemental segregation, and dislocation-cutting number on the critical stress for the dislocation to overcome a row of precipitates are studied. A random stacking fault energy landscape along the slip plane, the lattice distortion at different temperatures, and the interface/surface energy at various crystallographic orientations are obtained. Compared with the traditional metals and alloys, HEAs have the severe atomic-scale lattice distortions to generate the local high tensile/compressive stress fields. This complex stress causes the dislocation line to bend, and thus improves the dislocation slip resistance, resulting in the strong solid-solution strengthening. The stacking fault strengthening induced by the obvious difference of the stacking fault energies between the HEA matrix and precipitate (within the inner of the HEA matrix), and the formation of the antiphase domain boundary contribute to the high strength. The precipitate embedded by the solute atoms produces the strong lattice distortion to enhance the dislocation slip resistance at high temperatures. Hence, the current results provide the mechanistic insight into the phenomenon that the coherent precipitate combined with the severe atomic-scale lattice distortion can enhance the strength at cryogenic/elevated temperatures to further broaden the scope of applications of advanced HEAs.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2020

Neural network potential from bispectrum components: A case study on crystalline silicon

In this article, we present a systematic study on developing machine learning force fields (MLFFs) for crystalline silicon. While the main-stream approach of fitting a MLFF is to use a small and localized training set from molecular dynamics simulations, it is unlikely to cover the global features of the potential energy surface. Additionally, to remedy this issue, we used randomly generated symmetrical crystal structures to train a more general Si-MLFF. Furthermore, we performed substantial benchmarks among different choices of material descriptors and regression techniques on two different sets of silicon data. Our results show that neural network potential fitting with bispectrum coefficients as descriptors is a feasible method for obtaining accurate and transferable MLFFs.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2024

Unveiling the transferability of PLSR models for leaf trait estimation: lessons from a comprehensive analysis with a novel global dataset

Leaf traits are essential for understanding many physiological and ecological processes. Partial least squares regression (PLSR) models with leaf spectroscopy are widely applied for trait estimation, but their transferability across space, time, and plant functional types (PFTs) remains unclear. We compiled a novel dataset of paired leaf traits and spectra, with 47 393 records for >700 species and eight PFTs at 101 globally distributed locations across multiple seasons. Using this dataset, we conducted an unprecedented comprehensive analysis to assess the transferability of PLSR models in estimating leaf traits. While PLSR models demonstrate commendable performance in predicting chlorophyll content, carotenoid, leaf water, and leaf mass per area prediction within their training data space, their efficacy diminishes when extrapolating to new contexts. Specifically, extrapolating to locations, seasons, and PFTs beyond the training data leads to reduced R 2 (0.12–0.49, 0.15–0.42, and 0.25–0.56) and increased NRMSE (3.58–18.24%, 6.27–11.55%, and 7.0–33.12%) compared with nonspatial random cross-validation. The results underscore the importance of incorporating greater spectral diversity in model training to boost its transferability. These findings highlight potential errors in estimating leaf traits across large spatial domains, diverse PFTs, and time due to biased validation schemes, and provide guidance for future field sampling strategies and remote sensing applications.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Automatic Multiple Experiment Simulation and Fitting (Ames-Fit)

AMES-Fit is a program used to automatically fit the multi-field solid-state NMR spectra of half-integer quadrupolar nuclei. Due to the high dimensional space, gradient algorithms have failed to address the fitting of such data, which is at present done manually. AMES-Fit diverges from these approaches by using an adaptive step size random search algorithm to fit the NMR spectra to consistently find the global best fit parameters.

Perras, Frederic↗

DOE OSTI2024

Elemental profiling and genomewide association studies reveal genomic variants modulating ionomic composition in Populus trichocarpa leaves

Samples were collected from a population of 1,089 black cottonwood genotypes (P. trichocarpa) assembled from native stands to encompass the central portion of the natural range of the species, stretching from 38.8° to 54.3° N Q13 latitude from California, USA, to British Columbia, Canada. Establishment of the common garden, growth conditions, and site maintenance have been described by Muchero et al (2015). In this study, leaf samples for ionomic profiling were collected from 4-year-old trees, during the growing season, in July 2012, from a field located in Clatskanie, Oregon, USA (46°6′11″N 123°12′13″W). The field site was located in a protected alluvial floodplain containing a uniform Wauna-Locoda silt loam soil area characterized by an acidic pH, in Columbia County, Oregon. A subset of 584 out of the 1,089 P. trichocarpa genotypes were represented in this sampling. These genotypes were randomly selected to represent the geographical distribution of the population. A single fully mature (LPI 7-9) leaf on the south side of the tree exposed to full sunlight conditions was removed from the tree within a 6-hour window centering on solar noon and immediately frozen under dry ice before processing. Leaf samples of 584 P. trichocarpa genotypes were finely ground to 40 mm particle size using a mortar and pestle, and ionomic composition was analyzed using ICP-MS. In total, 20 elements were profiled, including aluminum (Al27), arsenic (As75), boron (B11), cadmium (Cd111), calcium (Ca43), cobalt (Co), copper (Cu), iron (Fe57), magnesium (Mg25), manganese (Mn55), molybdenum (Mo), nickel (Ni60), phosphorus (P31), potassium (K39), rubidium (Rb85), selenium (Se82), sodium (Na23), strontium (Sr88), sulfur (S34), and zinc (Zn66), following a protocol established by Ziegler et al. (2013). For each sample, 75mg of powder was digested overnight in 2.5 mL HNO3 containing 20 parts per billion (ppb) indium as an internal standard, following the protocol described in Ziegler et al. (2013). Following a dilution, concentration of the 20 elements was measured using an Elan 6000 DRC-e mass spectrometer (Perkin-Elmer SCIEX) connected to a PFA microflow nebulizer (Elemental Scientific) and Apex HF desolvator (Elemental Scientific). One measurement per sample per genotype was done. For subsequent analyses, the quantifications were converted to total element concentration.

CBI ionomics, GWAS, plasma-mass spectrometry, neut↗

DOE OSTI2023

Target Selection and Validation of DESI Quasars

The Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI) survey will measure large-scale structures using quasars as direct tracers of dark matter in the redshift range 0.9 < z < 2.1 and using Lyα forests in quasar spectra at z > 2.1. We present several methods to select candidate quasars for DESI, using input photometric imaging in three optical bands (g, r, z) from the DESI Legacy Imaging Surveys and two infrared bands (W1, W2) from the Wide-field Infrared Survey Explorer. These methods were extensively tested during the Survey Validation of DESI. In this paper, we report on the results obtained with the different methods and present the selection we optimized for the DESI main survey. The final quasar target selection is based on a random forest algorithm and selects quasars in the magnitude range of 16.5 < r < 23. Visual selection of ultra-deep observations indicates that the main selection consists of 71% quasars, 16% galaxies, 6% stars, and 7% inconclusive spectra. Using the spectra based on this selection, we build an automated quasar catalog that achieves a fraction of true QSOs higher than 99% for a nominal effective exposure time of ~1000 s. With a 310 deg -2 target density, the main selection allows DESI to select more than 200 deg -2 quasars (including 60 deg -2 quasars with z > 2.1), exceeding the project requirements by 20%. The redshift distribution of the selected quasars is in excellent agreement with quasar luminosity function predictions.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

NASA NTRS1972

Martian doublet craters.

A large number of Mars craters are nearly tangential to other craters. They occur in clusters or as isolated crater doublets. Results of probability calculations and a Monte Carlo cratering simulation model show conclusively that many of the Mars craters could not have resulted from random single-body impact. The possibility that these craters are calderas is considered possible only if calderas on Mars form by mechanisms different from those on earth. However, clusters and doublets could be caused by meteoroid breakup resulting from stresses induced in the meteoroid by the gravitational field of Mars. It is concluded that, under certain conditions, doublets should be produced on Mars as a direct result of breakup of an impacting meteoroid. The impact process can yield nonrandom crater distributions that should be observed in different degrees of development on different planetary surfaces.

Oberbeck, V. R.↗

NASA NTRS1976

Characteristics of corona impulses from insulated wires subjected to high ac voltages

Corona discharges arise due to ionization of air or gas subject to high electric fields. The free electrons and ions contained in these discharges interact with molecules of insulating materials, resulting in chemical changes and destroying the electrical insulating properties. The paper describes some results of measurements aimed at determining corona pulse waveforms, their repetition rate, and amplitude distribution during various randomly-sampled identical time periods of a 60-Hz high-voltage wave. Described are properties of positive and negative corona impulses generated from typical conductors at various test high voltages. A possible method for calculating the energies, densities, and electromagnetic interferences by making use of these results is suggested.

Doreswamy, C. V.↗

NASA NTRS1980

Depolarization effects in the active remote sensing of random media

Backscattering cross sections for depolarization are derived for the active remote sensing of a two-layer random medium. It is shown that the depolarization effects arise as a second-order term in albedo under the Born approximation. The results of the backscattering cross sections are illustrated as functions of frequency and incident angles and used to match experimental data collected from a vegetation field.

Zuniga, M.↗

NASA NTRS1990

Photometric theory for wide-angle phenomena

An examination is made of the problem posed by wide-angle photographic photometry, in order to extract a photometric-morphological history of Comet P/Halley. Photometric solutions are presently achieved over wide angles through a generalization of an assumption-free moment-sum method. Standard stars in the field allow a complete solution to be obtained for extinction, sky brightness, and the characteristic curve. After formulating Newton's method for the solution of the general nonlinear least-square problem, an implementation is undertaken for a canonical data set. Attention is given to the problem of random and systematic photometric errors.

Usher, Peter D.↗

NASA NTRS1990

Three-dimensional random vibration testing definition and simulation

An approach is presented for the definition of 3D random vibration test requirements for multiaxial shaker systems. In particular, it is shown that, by utilizing coherence functions for cross-correlation effects, test requirements can be defined in a simple way and provide a more realistic environmental simulation. The method is applicable to the simulation of all field environments and can be similarly employed to develop laboratory test requirements based on field data. Example problems are presented to demonstrate the approach.

Chang, Kurng Y.↗