NASA NTRS1990
A 2200 to 2600 year quasi-periodicity is present in atmospheric delta C-14 records after removal of long-term trends due to the geomagnetic dipole amplitude variation. This periodicity consists of both a long-term variation of the mean and a superposed, approximately recurring pattern of century-scale variations. The strongest of these latter variations occur near maxima of the approx. 2400 year delta C-14 cycles. The residual record can be modeled to first order as an amplitude modulation of a century-scale periodic forcing function by a approx. 2400 year periodic forcing function. During the last millennium, the largest century-scale variations (occurring near the most recent 2400 year delta C-14 maximum) are known to be mainly a consequence of the pronounced Maunder, Sporer, and Wolf solar activity minima, as verified by independent proxy solar activity records. Therefore, during this period, amplitude modulation has been occurring primarily in the sun and not in the terrestrial radiocarbon system. It is therefore inferred that the approx. 2400 year forcing function is mainly solar although some secondary terrestrial feedback into the delta C-14 record is likely. This conclusion has implications for the predictability of future pronounced solar activity minima and for the interpretation of certain minor Holocene climatic variations.