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At least 1,405 records · Page 78

Spurious solar-wind effects on acceleration noise in LISA Pathfinder

Spurious solar-wind effects are a potential noise source in future Laser Interferometer Space Antenna (LISA) measurements. One noise coupling mechanism is constrained by estimating solar-wind effects on acceleration noise in LISA Pathfinder (LPF). While LISA is designed for drag-free differential measurement, predicting the realistic impact both bounds the operational environment and assesses whether LISA could provide serendipitous space-weather observations. Data from NASA's Advanced Composition Explorer (ACE), situated at the L1 Lagrange point, serves as a reliable source of solar-wind data. The data sets are compared over the 114 d time period from 1 March 2016 to 23 June 2016. This period gives the longest readily-available open data set, without interference from other commissioning activities. To evaluate space weather effects, the data from both satellites are formatted, gap-filled/interpolated, and fast-Fourier transformed for amplitude spectral density and coherence comparisons. Solar wind effects are not seen in a coherence plot between LPF and ACE; modest coherence in the planned LISA observational frequency band can be attributed to chance. This result indicates that measurable correlation due to solar-wind acceleration noise over 3 month timescales will be a negligible noise source. LISA is unlikely to inform solar wind measurements routinely. Another source of noise from the Sun, solar radiation pressure, is estimated to impart greater acceleration noise, but has yet to be analyzed.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Strongly scale-dependent CMB dipolar asymmetry from super-curvature fluctuations

We reconsider the observed CMB dipolar asymmetry in the context of open inflation, where a supercurvature mode might survive the bubble nucleation. If such a supercurvature mode modulates the amplitude of the curvature power spectrum, it would easily produce an asymmetry in the power spectrum. We show that current observational data can be accommodated in a three-field model, with simple quadratic potentials and a non-trivial field-space metric. Despite the presence of three fields, we believe this model is so far the simplest that can match current observations. We are able to match the observed strong scale dependence of the dipolar asymmetry, without a fine tuning of initial conditions, breaking slow roll or adding a feature to the evolution of any field.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Update on decaying and annihilating heavy dark matter with the 6-year IceCube HESE data

In view of the IceCube's 6-year high-energy starting events (HESE) sample, we revisit the possibility that the updated data may be better explained by a combination of neutrino fluxes from dark matter decay and an isotropic astrophysical power-law than purely by the latter. We find that the combined two-component flux qualitatively improves the fit to the observed data over a purely astrophysical one, and discuss how these updated fits compare against a similar analysis done with the 4-year HESE data. We also update fits involving dark matter decay via multiple channels, without any contribution from the astrophysical flux. We find that a DM-only explanation is not excluded by neutrino data alone. Finally, we also consider the possibility of a signal from dark matter annihilations and perform analogous analyses to the case of decays, commenting on its implications.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

RAPID DUST FORMATION IN NOVAE: THE SPEED CLASS—FORMATION TIMESCALE CORRELATION EXPLAINED

Observations show that the time of onset of dust formation in classical novae depends strongly on their speed class, with dust typically taking longer to form in slower novae. Using empirical relationships between speed class, luminosity and ejection velocity, it can be shown that dust formation timescale is expected to be essentially independent of speed class. However, following a nova outburst the spectrum of the central hot source evolves, with an increasing proportion of the radiation being emitted short-ward of the Lyman limit. The rate at which the spectrum evolves also depends on the speed class. We have therefore refined the simple model by assuming photons at energies higher than the Lyman limit are absorbed by neutral hydrogen gas internal to the dust formation sites, therefore preventing these photons reaching the nucleation sites. With this refinement the dust formation timescale is theoretically dependent on speed class and the results of our theoretical modification agree well with the observational data. We consider two types of carbon-based dust, graphite and amorphous carbon, with both types producing similar relationships. Our results can be used to predict when dust will form in a nova of a given speed class and hence when observations should optimally be taken to detect the onset of dust formation.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Does the emission measure decrease during the start of a soft X-ray flare

It is suggested that the apparent emission dip found in soft X-ray flare observations, interpreted as the emission from a single temperature plasma, is an artifact. According to this hypothesis, the flare phenomenon represents a combination of flare plus a stable active region plasma. A small amount of hot flare plasma will dominate the total emission, and the calculated isothermal plasma parameters will trend towards those of the hot flare plasma, so that a decrease in emission measure will be inferred. It is claimed that observed data fit the model of a stable plasma plus a flare plasma better than it does the model of a single plasma, in accordance with a chi square statistic. The model of stable plasma plus flare plasma is also supported by the observation that the plasma parameters in the postflare condition are indistinguishable from those during preflare.

Wolfson, C. J.↗

IUE low-dispersion spectra of four luminous stars in symmetric nebulae

The stars and nebulae are HD 56925 in NGC 2359, + 60 deg 2522 in NGC 7635, AG Car in its nebula, and 209 BAC in M1-67. A discussion of known properties of these systems precedes the IUE data, which are tabulated with types and identifications of significant line features and velocities of ultraviolet-displaced absorption features. Weaver et al.'s theory of the interaction of a stellar wind with the ambient interstellar medium is applied to the combined observational data. This gives a table of self-consistent values for stellar terminal wind velocity, rate of mass loss, and wind power; nebular mass, radius, expansion velocity, and age; also ambient interstellar density and mass swept up from the interstellar medium by the wind. The relatively infrequent occurrence of such symmetric nebulae around young, massive stars is possibly related to the short lifetimes of the nebulae in comparison with stellar evolution lifetimes.

Johnson, H. M.↗

The scattered light echo of a supernova

A theoretical model of the scattering of SN radiation by a dusty circumstellar envelope is constructed and applied to observational data on SN 1979c and SN 1980k. The scattered-light curves are predicted by Monte Carlo simulation, and it is shown that the blue continuum of SN 1980k could be a scattered-light echo. The need for detailed late SN observations (especially UV observations of the type planned for the Space Telescope) is indicated.

Chevalier, R. A.↗

A sheet description of the emission from middle-aged supernova remnants

The hypothesis that sheetlike shock fronts propagating into large clouds immersed in a fairly uniform intercloud medium can provide a consistent picture accounting for essentially all the observational data for the Cygnus Loop SNR is considered. Filaments are interpreted as line-of-sight projections of portions of the sheet. Variations in the projection of the shock velocity along the line of sight lead naturally to 'turbulent' velocities consistent with observation. An analog model of a large, distorted, bumpy shock front is presented and shown to produce the observed morphology of the remnant's prominent optical filaments. Comparison with the observed morphology supports the idea that regions of optical emission lie on the local outer boundary of the shell and have not been engulfed by the blast wave. Bright X-ray emission arises when the blast wave encounters a preshock medium with an intermediate density higher than average for the adiabatic portion of the remnant, but still lower than that required for the shock to become radiative.

Hester, J. Jeff↗

Some models of the Geminids meteor stream formation

Further development of methods of investigations of meteor shower structure and a great deal of observational data have made it possible to obtain a precise flux density profile along the Earth's orbit for the Geminids meteor shower. This curve proved to be adequately described by a exponential law. Examined are: (1) which ejection model will fit the observed shower structure; and (2) to what extent the subsequent process of evolution modifies the formed structure. The following conclusions are drawn: (1) When studying the mechanism of formation of meteor streams, it is necessary to take into consideration the velocity distribution of particles that have been ejected from the parent body; (2) On the basis of the observed density variations, it is possible to determine what kind of ejection takes place (a single ejection or that around an orbital arch); and (3) The original structure of the Geminids cross section persists for no more than 1,500 to 2,000 years.

Belkovich, O. I.↗

Narrow-angle tail radio sources and evidence for radial orbits in Abell clusters

Published observational data on the tail orientations (TOs) of 60 narrow-angle-tail (NAT) radio sources in Abell clusters of galaxies are analyzed statistically using a maximum-likelihood approach. The results are presented in a table, and it is found that the observed TO distributions in the whole sample and in subsamples of morphologically regular NATs and NATs with pericentric distances d greater than 500 kpc are consistent with isotropic orbits, whereas the TOs for NATs with d less than 500 kpc are consistent with highly radial orbits. If radial orbits were observed near the centers of other types of cluster galaxies as well, it could be inferred that violent relaxation during cluster formation was incomplete, and that clusters form by spherical collapse and secondary infall, as proposed by Gunn (1977).

O'Dea, Christopher P.↗

Science Target Prioritization Framework for Remote Sensing

Behind the scenes of a remote sensing mission there are complex decision making and planning operations. Streamlining these operations, with a quantitative scientific value framework, aids efficient and optimized science data collection.While there have been previous efforts to quantify the science value for specific science scenarios, our work aims to develop a general framework which can be applied across different scenarios. We describe a pipeline of processes which combines model forecast and observation data, in computational forms, as dictated by the mission objectives set forth by subject matter experts. The framework is described with use cases involving the monitoring of nitrogen dioxide (NO2) concentrations over the Gulf of Mexico and methane concentrations over interior Alaska.

Remote Sensing↗

Standard Diagnostics for the Diurnal Cycle

The purpose of this document is to suggest a strategy for constructing standard diagnostics of the diurnal cycle from both climate model and observational data products. The guiding philosophy is “keep it simple,” in the hope that a diagnostic software package can be readily constructed and widely used. Of course this means that the output of the package will form only the beginning of necessary examination of the diurnal cycle in models and in the real world. The latest version of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, CMIP5, provides several fields at 3- hourly time resolution near the surface: air and surface temperatures, pressure, humidity, soil moisture, horizontal wind, energy flux components, overhead cloudiness, evaporation, precipitation, convective precipitation, and snowfall. (See the “3hr” tab in the Standard Output spreadsheet at http://cmip-pcmdi.llnl.gov/cmip5/data_description.html.) Meanwhile satellite observations provide at least equally fine time resolution and global coverage for some of these fields. This data makes possible an extensive study of the diurnal cycle near the surface.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Exploring modified gravity: constraints on the μ and Σ parametrization with WMAP , ACT, and SPT

ABSTRACT The cosmic acceleration problem remains one of the most significant challenges in cosmology. One of the proposed solutions to this problem is the modification of gravity on large scales. In this paper, we explore the well-known μ–Σ parametrization scenarios and confront them with observational data, including the cosmic microwave background (CMB) radiation from the Wilkinson Microwave Anisotropy Probe (WMAP), Atacama Cosmology Telescope (ACT), and South Pole Telescope (SPT), as well as large-scale structure data from the Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS; baryon acoustic oscillation + redshift-space distortion) and Pantheon supernova (SN) catalogue. We employ a Bayesian framework to constrain the model parameters and discuss the implications of our results on the viability of modified gravity theories. Our analysis reveals the strengths and limitations of the μ–Σ parametrization and provides valuable insights into the nature of gravity on cosmological scales. From the joint analysis of the ACT + WMAP + SDSS + SN, we find μ0 − 1 = 0.02 ± 0.19 and Σ0 − 1 = 0.021 ± 0.068 at 68 per cent confidence level (CL). In light of the SPT + WMAP + SDSS + SN, we find μ0 − 1 = 0.07 ± 0.18 and $\Sigma _0 -1 = -0.009^{+0.078}_{-0.11}$ at 68 per cent CL. In all the analyses carried out, we do not find any deviations from the theory of general relativity. Our results represent an observational update on the well-known μ–Σ parametrization in view of current CMB data, independent of and competitive with the constraints obtained with the Planck data.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Computer Model Calibration Based on Image Warping Metrics: An Application for Sea Ice Deformation

Arctic sea ice plays an important role in the global climate. Sea ice models governed by physical equations have been used to simulate the state of the ice including characteristics such as ice thickness, concentration, and motion. More recent models also attempt to capture features such as fractures or leads in the ice. These simulated features can be partially misaligned or misshapen when compared to observational data, whether due to numerical approximation or incomplete physics. In order to make realistic forecasts and improve understanding of the underlying processes, it is necessary to calibrate the numerical model to field data. Traditional calibration methods based on generalized least-square metrics are flawed for linear features such as sea ice cracks. We develop a statistical emulation and calibration framework that accounts for feature misalignment and misshapenness, which involves optimally aligning model output with observed features using cutting-edge image registration techniques. Here, this work can also have application to other physical models which produce coherent structures.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Dark aspects of massive spinor electrodynamics

We investigate the cosmology of massive spinor electrodynamics when torsion is non-vanishing. A non-minimal interaction is introduced between the torsion and the vector field and the coupling constant between them plays an important role in subsequential cosmology. It is shown that the mass of the vector field and torsion conspire to generate dark energy and pressureless dark matter, and for generic values of the coupling constant, the theory effectively provides an interacting model between them with an additional energy density of the form ∼ 1/a{sup 6}. The evolution equations mimic ΛCDM behavior up to 1/a{sup 3} term and the additional term represents a deviation from ΛCDM. We show that the deviation is compatible with the observational data, if it is very small. We find that the non-minimal interaction is responsible for generating an effective cosmological constant which is directly proportional to the mass squared of the vector field and the mass of the photon within its current observational limit could be the source of the dark energy.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Greenland Surface Mass Balance as Simulated by the Community Earth System Model. Part I: Model Evaluation and 1850–2005 Results

The modeling of the surface mass balance (SMB) of the Greenland Ice Sheet (GIS) requires high-resolution models in order to capture the observed large gradients in the steep marginal areas. Until now, global climate models have not been considered suitable to model ice sheet SMB owing to model biases and insufficient resolution. This study analyzes the GIS SMB simulated for the period 1850–2005 by the Community Earth System Model (CESM), which includes a new ice sheet component with multiple elevation classes for SMB calculations. The model is evaluated against observational data and output from the regional model Regional Atmospheric Climate Model version 2 (RACMO2). Because of a lack of major climate biases, a sophisticated calculation of snow processes (including surface albedo evolution) and an adequate downscaling technique, CESM is able to realistically simulate GIS surface climate and SMB. CESM SMB agrees reasonably well with in situ data from 475 locations ($r$ = 0.80) and output from RACMO2 ($r$ = 0.79). The simulated mean SMB for 1960–2005 is 359 ± 120 Gt yr -1 in the range of estimates from regional climate models. The simulated seasonal mass variability is comparable with mass observations from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE), with synchronous annual maximum (May) and minimum (August–September) and similar amplitudes of the seasonal cycle. CESM is able to simulate the bands of precipitation maxima along the southeast and northwest margins, but absolute precipitation rates are underestimated along the southeastern margin and overestimated in the high interior. The model correctly simulates the major ablation areas. Total refreezing represents 35% of the available liquid water (the sum of rain and melt).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

An Independent Assessment of Anthropogenic Attribution Statements for Recent Extreme Temperature and Rainfall Events

The annual "State of the Climate" report, published in the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society (BAMS), has included a supplement since 2011 composed of brief analyses of the human influence on recent major extreme weather events. There are now several dozen extreme weather events examined in these supplements, but these studies have all differed in their data sources as well as their approaches to defining the events, analyzing the events, and the consideration of the role of anthropogenic emissions. This study reexamines most of these events using a single analytical approach and a single set of climate model and observational data sources. In response to recent studies recommending the importance of using multiple methods for extreme weather event attribution, results are compared from these analyses to those reported in the BAMS supplements collectively, with the aim of characterizing the degree to which the lack of a common methodological framework may or may not influence overall conclusions. Results are broadly similar to those reported earlier for extreme temperature events but disagree for a number of extreme precipitation events. Based on this, it is advised that the lack of comprehensive uncertainty analysis in recent extreme weather attribution studies is important and should be considered when interpreting results, but as yet it has not introduced a systematic bias across these studies.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗