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At least 1,405 records · Page 78

Predicting the Operational Acceptability of Route Advisories

NASA envisions a future Air Traffic Management system that allows safe, efficient growth in global operations, enabled by increasing levels of automation and autonomy. In a safety-critical system, the introduction of increasing automation and autonomy has to be done in stages, making human-system integrated concepts critical in the foreseeable future. One example where this is relevant is for tools that generate more efficient flight routings or reroute advisories. If these routes are not operationally acceptable, they will be rejected by human operators, and the associated benefits will not be realized. Operational acceptance is therefore required to enable the increased efficiency and reduced workload benefits associated with these tools. In this paper, the authors develop a predictor of operational acceptability for reroute advisories. Such a capability has applications in tools that identify more efficient routings around weather and congestion and that better meet airline preferences. The capability is based on applying data mining techniques to flight plan amendment data reported by the Federal Aviation Administration and data on requested reroutes collected from a field trial of the NASA developed Dynamic Weather Routes tool, which advised efficient route changes to American Airlines dispatchers in 2014. 10-Fold cross validation was used for feature, model and parameter selection, while nested cross validation was used to validate the model. The model performed well in predicting controller acceptance or rejection of a route change as indicated by chosen performance metrics. Features identified as relevant to controller acceptance included the historical usage of the advised route, the location of the maneuver start point relative to the boundaries of the airspace sector containing the maneuver start (the maneuver start sector), the reroute deviation from the original flight plan, and the demand level in the maneuver start sector. A random forest with forty trees was the best performing of the five models evaluated in this paper.

operational acceptability↗

Autonomous Mission Operations

NASA's Advanced Exploration Systems Autonomous Mission Operations (AMO) project conducted an empirical investigation of the impact of time-delay on todays mission operations, and of the effect of processes and mission support tools designed to mitigate time-delay related impacts. Mission operation scenarios were designed for NASA's Deep Space Habitat (DSH), an analog spacecraft habitat, covering a range of activities including nominal objectives, DSH system failures, and crew medical emergencies. The scenarios were simulated at time-delay values representative of Lunar (1.2-5 sec), Near Earth Object (NEO) (50 sec) and Mars (300 sec) missions. Each combination of operational scenario and time-delay was tested in a Baseline configuration, designed to reflect present-day operations of the International Space Station, and a Mitigation configuration in which a variety of software tools, information displays, and crew-ground communications protocols were employed to assist both crews and Flight Control Team (FCT) members with the long-delay conditions. Preliminary findings indicate: 1) Workload of both crew members and FCT members generally increased along with increasing time delay. 2) Advanced procedure execution viewers, caution and warning tools, and communications protocols such as text messaging decreased the workload of both flight controllers and crew, and decreased the difficulty of coordinating activities. 3) Whereas crew workload ratings increased between 50 sec and 300 sec of time-delay in the Baseline configuration, workload ratings decreased (or remained flat) in the Mitigation configuration.

Mission Operations↗

Determining Thermal Capabilities for External Transfer Operations on the International Space Station

External transfers on the International Space Station (ISS) have a degree of difficulty caused by the severity of the radiative thermal environment and the complexity of the operational choreography to perform the installation and activation of the hardware. These transfers can be performed robotically, by astronauts during an Extra Vehicular Activity (EVA - spacewalk), or combination of robotic/crew operations. Robotic transfers may include capability to intermittently power the hardware; while the hardware remains unpowered for EVA operations. Robotic transfers can be staged to occur in a favorable thermal environment, though typically take longer than a transfer by crew during an EVA where the hardware may not be robotically compatible. The hardware is under passive thermal control, use of optics/multi-layer insulation/heaters, while being transferred from/to a visiting vehicle, airlock, stowage platform, or external ISS structure and may include additional design components, such as removable protective blankets, to meet the transfer requirements. Thermal analysis must be performed to determine the capability of the hardware being transferred to provide the Mission Control team the products necessary to plan and execute the operation while establishing an awareness for any contingency response. An overview of the thermal aspects in planning these types of transfer operations, the analytical approaches and assumptions, and examples of results are provided in this paper.

Thermal↗

Demonstrating Autonomous Mission Operations Onboard the International Space Station

The NASA Autonomous Mission Operations (AMO) project conducted an experiment to turn over operation and management of selected International Space Station (ISS) sys- tems to the on-board crew. ISS crews managed two different spacecraft systems: the Total Organic Carbon Analyzer (TOCA), a water quality analyzer, and Station Support Com- puters (SSC) laptops, which are non-critical crew computer systems. These systems were selected because they are representative of systems a future crew may need to operate au- tonomously during a deep space mission. The crew autonomously operated these systems, taking on mission operations functions traditionally performed by support teams on the ground, using new software tools that provide decision support algorithms for planning, monitoring and fault management, hardware schematics, system briefs, and data displays that are normally unavailable to the crew. The experiment lasted seven months, during which ISS crews managed TOCA and SSCs on 22 occasions. The AMO software processed data from TOCA and SSCs continuously during this seven month period. The combined performance of the software and crew achieved a 88 success rate on managing TOCA activity, the system for which ground-truth was available.

Autonomous Mission Operations↗

Predicting the Operational Acceptance of Airborne Flight Reroute Requests Using Data Mining

For tools that generate more efficient flight routes or reroute advisories, it is important to ensure compatibility of automation and autonomy decisions with human objectives so as to ensure acceptability by the human operators. In this paper, the authors developed a proof of concept predictor of operational acceptability for route changes during a flight. Such a capability could have applications in automation tools that identify more efficient routes around airspace impacted by weather or congestion and that better meet airline preferences. The predictor is based on applying data mining techniques, including logistic regression, a decision tree, a support vector machine, a random forest and Adaptive Boost, to historical flight plan amendment data reported during operations and field experiments. Cross validation was used for model development, while nested cross validation was used to validate the models. The model found to have the best performance in predicting air traffic controller acceptance or rejection of a route change, using the available data from Fort Worth Air Traffic Control Center and its adjacent Centers, was the random forest, with an F-score of 0.77. This result indicates that the operational acceptance of reroute requests does indeed have some level of predictability, and that, with suitable data, models can be trained to predict the operational acceptability of reroute requests. Such models may ultimately be used to inform route selection by decision support tools, contributing to the development of increasingly autonomous systems that are capable of routing aircraft with less human input than is currently the case.

Operational Acceptability↗

Design for Operations

Designs are usually done in a well-lit, air conditioned, comfortable room under idealized assumptions. The reality of the operation is very different. For designers to be able to design systems and procedures that work well under realistic dynamic work conditions, they must understand the reality of the operation and of the operators. The talk discusses the gap between the idealized design and the real operation and proposes a framework, THE Model, for designing systems and procedures fit for real operations.

design↗

Reports of Resilient Performance: Investigating Operators' Descriptions of Safety-producing Behaviors in the Aviation Safety Reporting System

While many existing taxonomies and frameworks provide a common vocabulary for describing how human operators fail in the context of sociotechnical systems, at present, there is no common vocabulary to describe how humans succeed. Such a framework would facilitate systematically collecting and analyzing data on how human performance can produce safety, not just how it can reduce safety. One potentially rich source of currently available information for exploring desired performance is the reports submitted to NASA’s Aviation Safety Reporting System (ASRS). These de-identified, confidential, and voluntary narrative reports are submitted by pilots, controllers, ground operators, and others within aviation operations. While these reports are primarily submitted to describe safety risks, incidents, and problems, they also often describe how those risks were mitigated, and provide a window into aspects of everyday work in aviation. These reports can be searched in a variety of ways. This paper describes methods for systematically examining ASRS narratives to understand how operators talk about their own resilient behaviors during adverse safety conditions and events. Guided by Erik Hollnagel’s Resilience Assessment Grid framework (i.e., anticipate, monitor, respond, learn), various approaches and tools for such inquiries are described. The approach, process, challenges, and suggestions to building an operator-based description of resilient performance are discussed, and tools to facilitate data analysis to maximize learning from these reports are described.

ASRS narratives↗

Attentional Considerations in Advanced Air Mobility Operations: Control, Manage, or Assist?

The implementation of automation will enable Advanced Air Mobility (AAM), which could alter the hu-man’s responsibilities from those of an active controller to a passive monitor of vehicles. Mature AAM operations will likely rely on both experienced and novice operators to supervise multiple aircraft. As AAM constitutes a complex and increasingly autonomous system, the human operator’s set of responsibilities will transition from those of a controller, to a manager, and eventually to an assistant to highly automated systems. The development of AAM will require system designers to characterize these three sets of human responsibilities. The present work proposes different human responsibilities across various roles (i.e., pilot in command, system operator, system assistant) in the context of AAM along with pertinent attention-related constructs that could contribute to each of the three identified roles of AAM operators including situation awareness, workload, complacency, and vigilance.

Advanced Air Mobility↗

Uncrewed Lunar Surface Operations and Support Activities

A sustained human presence on the surface of the Moon and future missions to Mars require increased independence from surface crews and Earth-based mission control to operate efficiently, safely, and reliably. The number of astronauts and the availability of the surface crew to perform tasks will be limited, and extravehicular activities are burdensome and time-consuming. A balance of crewed and uncrewed surface operations will maximize crew exploration time by reducing their time dedicated to routine maintenance and support tasks. Certain sustaining activities that consume valuable crew time and preparation tasks such as staging and prepositioning equipment and materials can be performed without the crew, either before their arrival on the lunar surface or after their departure, thus improving task efficiency and mission effectiveness. This paper will define uncrewed operations and support activities and examine the functions, features, and capabilities that support sustained human and robotic surface operations. It will also discuss the extreme environmental challenges and the complexities associated with the development and operation of autonomous systems, as well as some suggested methods, techniques, and tools to overcome these challenges.

Lunar↗

Lunar Landing and Operations Policy Analysis

At least 22 lunar missions are planned in the next four years. Half of these missions will occur in the Moon’s south polar region. Due to this upcoming proliferation of actors and activities at or near the lunar south pole, and due to the potential close proximity of operations, NASA and other operators will face challenges never faced before. NASA’s Deputy Administrator and Associate Administrator of the Science Mission Directorate tasked the Office of Technology, Policy, and Strategy with answering two questions related to the Artemis campaign: (1) what technical and policy considerations should NASA take into account in the selection of lunar landing and operations sites, and (2) what technical and policy considerations should NASA take into account when implementing tools such as safety zones in order to protect these operations and U.S. interests? We present policy tools (options and recommendations) to NASA leadership and program planners so that they can consider policy measures to respond to challenges inherent in landing and operating at the lunar South Pole—this answers question one. We also describe a set of options (transparency, coordination, and implementation) to increase the effectiveness of these tools—this answers question two.

Lunar policy↗

Potential of Wind Power to Provide Flexible Ramping Products and Operating Reserve: Preprint

With increasing penetration levels of variable renewable energy sources, such as wind and solar, electric power systems need flexible resources that can provide fast-response ramping capabilities to counter the variability and uncertainty of renewable generation. Although the California Independent System Operator and Midcontinent System Operator have lauched ramp products, determining how wind power can participate using their flexible ramping models is still largely unclear. This paper proposes a security-constrained unit commitment (SCUC) model considering a flexible ramping constraint representing the system's flexible ramping requirements that account for the net load probabilistic forecast uncertainty. Through this explicit modeling of the uncertainty, the true cost of the flexible ramp service can be determined after solving the SCUC problem. In addition, the potential of wind power to provide operating reserves is analyzed. Numerical case studies demonstrate that with wind power providing both flexible ramping products and operating reserve, the system operating costs and ramp shortages will be reduced significantly.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

How Wrong Can the Operational AEP Uncertainty Estimate Be When We Ignore the Correlations Between the Uncertainty Components?

Calculations of wind farm annual energy production (AEP) on operational data are essential for a variety of financial transactions during the life of wind plants. The AEP estimate is associated with an uncertainty value, which is calculated by combining contributions connected to on-site measurements, long-term reference measurements, losses, regression, windiness adjustment, and wind resource interannual variability. Although very limited documentation on the topic exists, the conventional approach currently used by the wind energy community to assess the uncertainty connected to the operational AEP estimate assume that the different uncertainty components are uncorrelated and therefore calculates the overall uncertainty with a sum of squares approach. In this analysis, we contrast the traditional technique to estimate the overall AEP uncertainty by ignoring the correlation between its different components with a novel Monte Carlo based approach, which can instead take into account the correlation between different uncertainty categories. We consider monthly operational data from 472 wind farms from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) 923 database to assess the difference between the two approaches. Long-term wind speed data needed for the AEP assessment are taken from three reanalysis products: the Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications v2 (MERRA-2), the European Reanalysis Interim (ERA-interim), and the National Centers for Environmental Prediction v2 (NCEP-2). The results of the Monte Carlo approach show that three pairs of AEP uncertainty components do show a statistically significant correlation: the uncertainty connected with wind resource inter-annual variability is positively correlated with the one related to the windiness correction and negatively correlated with the one due to the regression, and the wind measurement uncertainty is positively correlated with the regression uncertainty. All these correlations, which are found between uncertainty components which are not only part of an operational analysis, but also of a wind resource assessment, are currently ignored in the conventional techniques used as industry standard. We further investigate the causes of these correlations, in terms of common dependencies of different uncertainty components on wind resource variability, number of data points, and quality of the regression between wind speed and energy production data. Next, we quantify the error in the current industry standard technique, in terms of the percentage difference in total uncertainty calculated with the two considered approaches, for all the analyzed wind farms. We find a mean absolute percentage difference of about 6%, with the largest differences being greater than 20%. The data clearly confirm that ignoring the actual correlation between the uncertainty components can lead to large errors in the assessment of the operational AEP uncertainty, and the proposed Monte Carlo approach should be preferred.

Monte Carlo↗

Design of a Non-PLL Grid-Forming Inverter for Smooth Microgrid Transition Operation: Preprint

This paper develops a non-phase-locked loop (PLL) grid-connected inverter that can improve the microgrid’s transients during transition operation. By emulating the operation of a synchronous machine, the inverter generates its own voltage and frequency during startup, synchronizes and connects to the grid, then operates in reactive power mode (grid-feeding) with self-generated voltage and frequency, and switches to voltage-frequency mode to establish system voltage and frequency (grid-forming) when the microgrid disconnects from the main grid, and vice versa. To enable fast synchronization, active synchronization control is adopted both during inverter startup and microgrid reconnection operation. The simulation results show that the developed non-PLL grid-connected inverter works effectively to synchronize the inverter and microgrid to the grid and avoids a phase jump during microgrid transition operation. Thus, the microgrid’s transients are significantly improved with the proposed control technique.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Enhancing the Operational Resilience of Advanced Reactors with Digital Twins by Recurrent Neural Networks

Because of a lack of operation data during abnormal and accident scenarios, along with the existence of uncertainty in the evaluation model for transient and accident analysis, the established abnormal and emergency operating procedures can be biased in characterizing the reactor states and ensuring operational resilience. To improve state awareness and ensure operational flexibility for minimizing effects on the system due to anomaly, digital twin (DT) technology is suggested to support operator's decision-making by effectively extracting and using knowledge of the current and future plant states from the knowledge base. To demonstrate DT's capability for recovering the complete states of reactors and for predicting the future reactor behaviors, this paper develops and assesses both the diagnosis and prognosis DTs in a nearly autonomous management and control system for an Experimental Breeder Reactor-II simulator during different loss-of-flow scenarios.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Cybersecurity for System Operators

SERC's System Operator Conference is an annual education and sustainment training for electric power system operators across the southeastern United States. In recognition of the growing importance of cybersecurity for energy systems, a block of instruction on cybersecurity concepts was included for this year's conferences. This presentation provides an overview of the need for and general approach used in the DOE CESER-sponsored Cybersecurity for the Operational Technology Environment (CyOTE) program, tailored for electric power system operators. NERC's updated Cyber Intrusion Guide for System Operators is reviewed, explaining how it is an operationalization of some of CyOTE's principles and approach.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Addressing Consequence within Operational Risk: An Approach for Understanding an Organization’s Unique Infrastructure Environment

The endeavor of tackling operational risk focused on consequences is challenging even for the most resourced entity but can be advanced though a simplified approach: identifying, binning, and prioritizing the infrastructure environment. While no two entities within a single element of the 16 critical infrastructure sectors are exactly alike when it comes to risk, there is a basic process to move toward a greater understanding of operational risk through becoming more informed about the infrastructure landscape in which the entity exists. The process starts with bringing internal and external stakeholders and subject matter experts together to analyze key areas such as Information Technology (IT) and Operational Technology (OT) components and points of convergence, analyzing internal and external cyber and physical dependencies, accounting for explosive growth in devices and wireless technology, and leveraging the contributions of people inside and outside the operational environment. Attaining a common understanding of the infrastructure landscape as part of addressing consequences within operational risk is not easy to do or resource light, but the process outlined provides the framework to further any entity’s efforts in this space.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

EPRI Guidance for Transitioning from Operation to Decommissioning at Nuclear Power Plants - 17438

A wide range of key activities are necessary after permanent shutdown of a nuclear power plant and before active dismantlement of the plant can begin. This period between permanent shutdown and the start of active dismantlement is typically referred to as the transition period (or the post-operational phase). In some cases, these transition activities may be prescribed by regulation or performed in the absence of regulations, while in other cases they may be more practically driven or even optional. In either case, it is often unclear what activities are needed and when/how those activities should be conducted to most efficiently transition from operational to decommissioning status while maintaining radiological safety and the protection of the public. The Electric Power Research Institute has prepared a report that presents experiences and guidance for transitioning from an operational to decommissioning status based on US and international decommissioning regulations and plant experiences. Regulations and experiences in a number of countries were considered, including US, Germany, France, Spain, and Switzerland. Best practices and lessons learned related to transitioning to decommissioning are identified, and guidance is presented for developing a plan to transition from normal operations to decommissioning for several scenarios, including: - Transition to DECON (immediate dismantling) for a planned shutdown; - Transition to SAFSTOR (deferred dismantling) for a planned shutdown; - Transition to DECON (immediate dismantling) for an unplanned shutdown; - Transition to SAFSTOR (deferred dismantling) for an unplanned shutdown. Further, the EPRI report contains guidance for currently operating plants that do not anticipate permanent shutdown in the near future to help minimize the cost and impact of an unexpected permanent shutdown if such a scenario were to occur. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Concept of Operations for Advanced Reactor Spent Nuclear Fuel Management

This presentation presents a preliminary description of a concept of operations to incorporate advanced-reactor spent nuclear fuel (SNF) into an integrated waste-management system (IWMS). The evaluation includes SNF from four advanced-reactor concepts with the following fuel types: (1) small modular reactors using oxide fuels, (2) tristructural-isotropic (TRISO) fuels, (3) metallic fuels, and (4) fuel salts. To provide context for the proposed concept of operations for advanced reactors, a comparison is made with traditional light-water reactors (LWRs) to identify potential gaps in the IWMS. The technical differences between advanced reactors and LWRs are assessed to determine the feasibility of managing advanced-reactor waste streams using existing operations and technology. This presentation emphasizes fuel types from Advanced Reactor Demonstration Program reactors: Xe 100, which uses TRISO fuel and Natrium, with its metallic fuels while also analyzing management options for molten-salt reactors and advanced light-water reactors (ALWRs). Understanding the storage, transportation, and disposal requirements of SNF is dependent on both the quantity and characteristics of the SNF generated by nuclear reactors. This presentation provides a high level overview, comparing the anticipated concept of operations for different SNFs from advanced reactors. The IWMS includes at-reactor storage, transportation, potential off-site storage, potential treatment, and disposition. To assess the potential effect of advanced-reactor concept of operations on the IWMS, estimates were made for fuel characteristics that contribute to storage, transportation, disposal, and possible treatment of advanced-reactor SNF. These include canister heat load, dose rates, and criticality-control limits, which are important for determining the condition and configuration of the advanced reactor SNF. At-reactor storage of LWR SNF traditionally involves a spent-fuel pool (SFP) before transfer to an independent spent-fuel storage installation. However, some advanced-reactor concepts, particularly those using TRISO and salt fuels, do not anticipate the use of an SFP. This difference in at-reactor storage could impact the IWMS. Additionally, transportation of advanced-reactor SNF may include additional processes tied to potential off gassing, and transportation of microreactor SNF may occur within the reactor vessel. Some advanced-reactor SNF could also undergo treatment to meet requirements of an acceptable waste form for disposition, and the treatment location will be a major contributor to efficiently performing IWMS responsibilities. Moreover, the quantity of SNF generated is an important consideration for IWMS because it could affect the size of the transportation fleet and potential off-site storage requirements. Additionally, volume and heat load are the primary drivers for SNF disposition. This presentation compares potential packaging options for advanced reactor SNF with traditional LWR packaging to provide a high-level comparison for the needs of the IWMS for advanced-reactor SNF.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗