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DOE OSTI2022

Data-driven causal model discovery and personalized prediction in Alzheimer's disease

Abstract With the explosive growth of biomarker data in Alzheimer’s disease (AD) clinical trials, numerous mathematical models have been developed to characterize disease-relevant biomarker trajectories over time. While some of these models are purely empiric, others are causal, built upon various hypotheses of AD pathophysiology, a complex and incompletely understood area of research. One of the most challenging problems in computational causal modeling is using a purely data-driven approach to derive the model’s parameters and the mathematical model itself, without any prior hypothesis bias. In this paper, we develop an innovative data-driven modeling approach to build and parameterize a causal model to characterize the trajectories of AD biomarkers. This approach integrates causal model learning, population parameterization, parameter sensitivity analysis, and personalized prediction. By applying this integrated approach to a large multicenter database of AD biomarkers, the Alzheimer’s Disease Neuroimaging Initiative, several causal models for different AD stages are revealed. In addition, personalized models for each subject are calibrated and provide accurate predictions of future cognitive status.

Zheng, Haoyang (ORCID:0000000168358242)↗

NASA NTRS2016

Feasibility of Varying Geo-Fence Around an Unmanned Aircraft Operation Based on Vehicle Performance and Wind

Managing trajectory separation is critical to ensuring accessibility, efficiency, and safety in the unmanned airspace. The notion of geo-fences is an emerging concept, where distance buffers enclose individual trajectories and areas of operation in order to manage the airspace. Currently, the Air Traffic Management system for commercial travel defines static distance buffers around the aircraft; however, commercial UASs are envisioned to operate in significantly closer proximity to other UAS requiring a geo-fence for spacing operations. The geo-fence size can be determined based on vehicle performance characteristics, state of the airspace, weather, and other unforeseen events such as emergency or disaster response. Calculation of the geo-fence size could be determined as part of pre-flight planning and during real-time operations. A largely non-homogeneous fleet of UASs will be operating in low altitude and will likely be commercially developed. Due to intellectual property concerns, the operators may not provide detailed specifications of the control system to UTM. In addition, the huge variety of UAS makes modeling each control system prohibitive and flight data for these vehicles may not exist. Therefore, a generalized, simple geo-fence sizing algorithm must be developed such that it does not rely on detailed knowledge of the vehicle control system, accounts for the presence of urban winds, and is sufficiently accurate. In this work, two simple models are investigated to determine its feasibility as an adequate means for calculating the geo-fence size. The vehicle data used in this work are provided by UAS manufactures who have partnered with NASA's UTM project and some publicly available websites. The first model utilizes wind data processed from the NOAA HRRR (Hourly Rapid Refresh) product and Sonar Annemometer data provided by San Jose State. The second model utilizes OpenFOAM which is a CFD code used to generate a wind field for flow around a single building. The key vehicle performance parameters can include UAS response time to disturbances, command to actuation latency, control system rate limits, time to recovery to desired path, and aerodynamics. It was found that the first model provides an initial understanding of geo-fence sizing, but does not provide enough accuracy to provide UTM with an efficient means of scheduling vehicles. The results of the second model reveal that modeling UAS controls systems with a linearized plant and gain scheduled PID controller does not allow capture the UAS flight dynamics within a significant envelope of the wind disturbances.

uncertainty↗

NASA NTRS1994

Operations and support cost modeling of conceptual space vehicles

The University of Dayton is pleased to submit this annual report to the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Langley Research Center which documents the development of an operations and support (O&S) cost model as part of a larger life cycle cost (LCC) structure. It is intended for use during the conceptual design of new launch vehicles and spacecraft. This research is being conducted under NASA Research Grant NAG-1-1327. This research effort changes the focus from that of the first two years in which a reliability and maintainability model was developed to the initial development of an operations and support life cycle cost model. Cost categories were initially patterned after NASA's three axis work breakdown structure consisting of a configuration axis (vehicle), a function axis, and a cost axis. A revised cost element structure (CES), which is currently under study by NASA, was used to established the basic cost elements used in the model. While the focus of the effort was on operations and maintenance costs and other recurring costs, the computerized model allowed for other cost categories such as RDT&E and production costs to be addressed. Secondary tasks performed concurrent with the development of the costing model included support and upgrades to the reliability and maintainability (R&M) model. The primary result of the current research has been a methodology and a computer implementation of the methodology to provide for timely operations and support cost analysis during the conceptual design activities.

Ebeling, Charles↗

NASA NTRS2015

Inconsistent Strategies to Spin up Models in CMIP5: Implications for Ocean Biogeochemical Model Performance Assessment

During the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) substantial efforts were made to systematically assess the skill of Earth system models. One goal was to check how realistically representative marine biogeochemical tracer distributions could be reproduced by models. In routine assessments model historical hindcasts were compared with available modern biogeochemical observations. However, these assessments considered neither how close modeled biogeochemical reservoirs were to equilibrium nor the sensitivity of model performance to initial conditions or to the spin-up protocols. Here, we explore how the large diversity in spin-up protocols used for marine biogeochemistry in CMIP5 Earth system models (ESMs) contributes to model-to-model differences in the simulated fields. We take advantage of a 500-year spin-up simulation of IPSL-CM5A-LR to quantify the influence of the spin-up protocol on model ability to reproduce relevant data fields. Amplification of biases in selected biogeochemical fields (O2, NO3, Alk-DIC) is assessed as a function of spin-up duration. We demonstrate that a relationship between spin-up duration and assessment metrics emerges from our model results and holds when confronted with a larger ensemble of CMIP5 models. This shows that drift has implications for performance assessment in addition to possibly aliasing estimates of climate change impact. Our study suggests that differences in spin-up protocols could explain a substantial part of model disparities, constituting a source of model-to- model uncertainty. This requires more attention in future model intercomparison exercises in order to provide quantitatively more correct ESM results on marine biogeochemistry and carbon cycle feedbacks.

histories↗

NASA NTRS1972

Accretion process of the moon.

Development of a simple model of the accretion process of the moon to explain its initial temperature distribution. The model assumes that the moon was formed from the accumulation of the solid particles or gases in the isolated, closed cloud. Two equations are derived to calculate the accretion rate and surface temperature of the accreting moon. Numerical calculations are made for a wide range of the particle concentrations and particle velocities in the cloud. A limited set of parameters gives the initial temperature profiles as required by geochemical and geophysical data. These models of the protomoon cloud indicate that the lunar outershell, about 400 km thick, was partially or completely molten just after the accretion of the moon and that the moon should have been formed in a period shorter than 1000 yr. If the moon formed at a position nearer to the earth than its present one, the moon might have been formed in a period of less than one year.

Mizutani, H.↗

DOE OSTI2025

Computational Fluid Dynamics Simulations of Glass Vitrification Refractory Coupon Tests

The Waste Treatment and Immobilization Plant (WTP) at the Hanford site is nearing the start of the Direct-Feed Low-Activity Waste (DFLAW) operations. DFLAW is destined to convert a pretreated low activity waste portion of the 56 million gallons of tank waste into a stable solid glass. In the subsequent decade completion of the high-level waste (HLW) facility is anticipated. Sustained operational missions of both LAW and HLW melter facilities are expected over multiple decades. In high-temperature glass melters, the refractory lining corrodes over time, which could potentially be an issue for longer term operations, this refractory corrosion is higher at the level of the glass-air interface due to surface tension driven flow. The glass viscosity, melt pool temperature, and glass chemical composition can impact the rate at which the refractory corrodes. This rate is important to quantify for the various waste glasses to be produced at the WTP since the integrity of the refractory should not be a limiting factor affecting the lifetime of the melter. To this end, a series of glasses representative of the first batches of waste glass produced by the WTP will be melted in small-scale crucibles with Monofrax® K-3 coupons inserted. The corrosion of the K-3 will be measured in the melt and at the meltline (or neckline). A model for the corrosion rate will be constructed and implemented into a previously developed framework for a computational fluid dynamics (CFD) model of the full-scale WTP. To assist with experimental design and validate the implementation of the model in the full-scale melter, CFD simulations of the small-scale crucible tests were performed. The bubbling that occurs in the small-scale crucible is initially validated here with a model that uses silicone oil at room temperature. The viscosity of the oil ranges from 1 to 100 Pa•s, which corresponds to operating glass pool temperatures near 1150 °C down to idling temperatures near 950 °C. The simulation results show good agreement with the bubble sizes that form during experiments. CFD modeling of the crucible setup was used to determine bubbling characteristics to match the range of near-wall velocities expected in the full-scale WTP. This study presents the initial CFD modeling results, corrosion testing plan, and some preliminary corrosion samples with an outline for the next steps for the development of the corrosion model.

Abboud, Alexander W. [Idaho National Lab]↗

NASA NTRS1990

Finite-element models of continental extension

Numerical models of the initial deformation of extending continental lithosphere, computed to investigate the control of preexisting thermal and mechanical heterogeneities on the style of deformation, are presented. The finite element method is used to calculate deformation with a viscoelastic-plastic model for the lithosphere. Comparisons of the results of analytic models and finite-element models using this method show that good results may be obtained by the numerical technique, even with elements containing both brittle and viscoelastic sampling points. It is shown that the gross style of initial extensional deformation is controlled by the depth and width of the initial heterogeneity which localizes deformation.

Lynch, H. David↗

DOE OSTI2019

Measurement of prompt D 0 , D + , D *+ , and DS+$ {\mathrm{D}}_{\mathrm{S}}^{+} $ production in p–Pb collisions at sNN$ \sqrt{{\mathrm{s}}_{\mathrm{NN}}} $ = 5.02 TeV

The measurement of the production of prompt D 0 , D + , D *+, and $D_S^+$ mesons in proton–lead (p–Pb) collisions at the centre-of-mass energy per nucleon pair of \mathrm{\sqrt{s_{NN}}}$ = 5.02 TeV, with an integrated luminosity of 292 ± 11 μb -1 , are reported. Differential production cross sections are measured at mid-rapidity (-96 < y cms < 0.04) as a function of transverse momentum (p T ) in the intervals 0 < p T < 36 GeV/c for D 0 , 1 < p T < 36 GeV/c for D + and D *+ , and 2 < p T < 24 GeV/c for D + mesons. For each species, the nuclear modification factor R pPb is calculated as a function of p T using a proton-proton (pp) reference measured at the same collision energy. The results are compatible with unity in the whole p T range. The average of the non-strange D mesons R pPb is compared with theoretical model predictions that include initial-state effects and parton transport model predictions. The p T dependence of the D 0 , D + , and D *+ nuclear modification factors is also reported in the interval 1 < p T < 36 GeV/c as a function of the collision centrality, and the central-to-peripheral ratios are computed from the D-meson yields measured in different centrality classes. The results are further compared with charged-particle measurements and a similar trend is observed in all the centrality classes. The ratios of the p T -differential cross sections of D 0 , D + , D *+ , and $D_S^+$ mesons are also reported. The $D_S^+$ and D + yields are compared as a function of the charged-particle multiplicity for several p T intervals. No modification in the relative abundances of the four species is observed with respect to pp collisions within the statistical and systematic uncertainties.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Unraveling Reactivity Differences: Room-Temperature Ring-Opening Metathesis Polymerization (ROMP) versus Frontal ROMP

Here, in this study, we explore the distinct reactivity patterns between frontal ring-opening metathesis polymerization (FROMP) and room-temperature solventless ring-opening metathesis polymerization (ROMP). Despite their shared mechanism, we find that FROMP is less sensitive to inhibitor concentration than room-temperature ROMP. By increasing the initiator-to-monomer ratio for a fixed inhibitor/initiator quantity, we find reduction in the ROMP background reactivity at room temperature (i.e., increased resin pot life). At elevated temperatures where inhibitor dissociation prevails, accelerated frontal polymerization rates are observed because of the concentrated presence of the initiator. Surprisingly, the strategy of employing higher initiator loading enhances both pot life and front speeds, which leads to FROMP rates exceeding prior reported values by over 5 times. This counterintuitive behavior is attributed to an increase in the proximity of the inhibitor to the initiator within the bulk resin and to whether the temperature favors coordination or dissociation of the inhibitor. A rapid method was developed for assessing resin pot life, and a straightforward model for active initiator behavior was established. Modified resin systems enabled direct ink writing of robust thermoset structures at rates much faster than previously possible.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2019

Verification and application of resonance broadened quasi-linear (RBQ) model with multiple Alfvénic instabilities

The resonance broadened quasilinear (RBQ) model for the problem of relaxing the hot ion distribution function in constant-of-motion 3D space [Gorelenkov et al., Nucl. Fusion 58, 082016 (2018)] is presented with the self-consistent evolution of multiple Alfvén eigenmode amplitudes. The RBQ model represents the generalization of the earlier published model [Berk et al., Nucl. Fusion 35, 1661 (1995)] by carefully examining the wave particle interaction in the presence of realistic Alfvén eigenmode (AE) structures and pitch angle scattering with the help of the guiding center code ORBIT. One aspect of the generalization is that the RBQ model goes beyond the local perturbative-pendulumlike approximation for the wave particle dynamics near the resonance. An iterative procedure is introduced to account for eigenstructures varying within the resonances. It is found that a radially localized mode structure implies a saturation level 2–3 times smaller than that predicted by an earlier bump-on-tail quasilinear model that employed uniform mode structures. We apply the RBQ code to a DIII-D plasma with an elevated q-profile where the beam ion profiles exhibit stiff transport properties [Collins et al., Phys. Rev. Lett. 116, 095001 (2016)]. Finally, the properties of AE driven fast ion distribution relaxation are studied for validations of the applied RBQ model in DIII-D discharges. Initial results show that the model is robust, is numerically efficient, and can predict fast ion relaxation in present and future burning plasma experiments.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

NASA NTRS1977

Nimbus 6 ERB scanner studies for development of Earth Radiation Budget Satellite System (ERBSS)

The Nimbus 6 ERB scanner data were conducted to support the development of the Earth Radiation Budget Satellite System project. The ERB data were processed in terms of Earth targets and angular bins and used to evaluate currently available directional radiation models for the longwave and shortwave spectral ranges. Results indicate that available longwave models are adequate for the most part while available shortwave models are inadequate. An effort was initiated to develop improved shortwave models for various cloud conditions and various surface types for cloud free conditions.

Suttles, J. T.↗

NASA NTRS1984

Global Scale Atmospheric Processes Research Program Review

Global modeling; satellite data assimilation and initialization; simulation of future observing systems; model and observed energetics; dynamics of planetary waves; First Global Atmospheric Research Program Global Experiment (FGGE) diagnosis studies; and National Research Council Research Associateship Program are discussed.

Worley, B. A.↗

NASA NTRS1985

Development of thermomechanical life prediction models for thermal barrier coatings

Thermal barrier coatings (TBCs) for turbine airfoils in high-performance engines represent an advanced materials technology with both performance and durability benefits. The foremost TBC benefit is the reduction of heat transferred into air-cooled components. To achieve these benefits, however, the TBC system must be reliable. Mechanistic thermomechanical and thermochemical life models and statistically significant design data are therefore required for the reliable exploitation of TBC benefits on gas turbine airfoils. Garrett's NASA-HOST Program (NAS3-23945) is designed to fulfill these requirements. This program focuses on predicting the lives of two types of strain-tolerant and oxidation-resistant TBC systems that are produced by commercial coating suppliers to the gas turbine industry. The plasma-sprayed TBC system, composed of a low-pressure plasma-spray (LPPS) applied oxidation resistant NiCrAlY bond coating, and an air-plasma-sprayed yttria partially stabilized zirconia insulated layer is applied by both Chromalloy and Klock. The second type of TBC is applied by the electron beam-physical vapor deposition process by Temescal. Thermomechanical life models are being tailored to predict TBC strain tolerance in terms of materials, engine, and mission parameters. Continuum and fracture mechanics approaches and statistical methods are being evaluated to develop tensile and compressive strain functions required to drive a mission analysis capable thermomechanical life model for TBCs. Results of initial testing to calibrate these life models will be presented.

Strangman, T. E.↗

NASA NTRS1991

Preliminary calibration plan for the Advanced Particles and Field Observatory (APAFO) magnetometer experiment

Prelaunch and postlaunch calibration plans for the APAFO magnetometer experiment are presented. A study of tradeoffs between boom length and spacecraft field is described; the results are summarized. The prelaunch plan includes: calibration of the Vector Fluxgate Magnetometer (VFM), Star Sensors, and Scalar Helium Magnetometer (SHM); optical bench integration; and acquisition of basic spacecraft field data. Postlaunch calibration has two phases. In phase one, SHM data are used to calibrate the VFM, total vector magnetic field data are used to calibrate a physical model of the spacecraft field, and both calibrations are refined by iteration. In phase two, corrected vector data are transformed into geocentric coordinates, previously undetected spacecraft fields are isolated, and initial geomagnetic field models are computed. Provided the SHM is accurate to the required 1.0 nT and can be used to calibrate the VFM to the required 3.0- nT accuracy, the tradeoff study indicates that a 12 m boom and a spacecraft field model uncertainty of 5 percent together allow the 1.0 nT spacecraft field error requirement to be met.

Voorhies, C. V.↗

NASA NTRS1995

Observational and numerical studies of extreme frontal scale contraction

The general objective of this effort is to increase understanding of how frontal scale contraction processes may create and sustain intense mesoscale precipitation along intensifying cold fronts. The five-part project (an expansion of the originally proposed two-part project) employed conventional meteorological data, special mesoscale data, remote sensing measurements, and various numerical models. First an idealized hydrostatic modeling study of the scale contraction effects of differential cloud cover on low-level frontal structure and dynamics was completed and published in a peer-reviewed journal. The second objective was to complete and publish the results from a three dimensional numerical model simulation of a cold front in which differential sensible heating related to cloud coverage patterns was apparently crucial in the formation of a severe frontal squall line. The third objective was to use a nonhydrostatic model to examine the nonlinear interactions between the transverse circulation arising from inhomogeneous cloud cover, the adiabatic frontal circulation related to semi-geostrophic forcing, and diabatic effects related to precipitation processes, in the development of a density current-like microstructure at the leading edge of cold fronts. Although the development of a frontal model that could be used to initialize such a primitive equation model was begun, we decided to focus our efforts instead on a project that could be successfully completed in this short time, due to the lack of prospects for continued NASA funding beyond this first year (our proposal was not accepted for future funding). Thus, a fourth task was added, which was to use the nonhydrostatic model to test tentative hypotheses developed from the most detailed observations ever obtained on a density current (primarily sodar and wind profiler data). These simulations were successfully completed, the findings were reported at a scientific conference, and the results have recently been submitted to a peer-reviewed journal. The fifth objective was to complete the analysis of data collected during the Cooperative Oklahoma Profiler Studies (COPS-91) field project, which was supported by NASA. The analysis of the mesoscale surface and sounding data, Doppler radar imagery, and other remote sensing data from multi frequency wind profiler, microwave radiometer, and the Radio Acoustic Sounding System has been completed. This study is a unique investigation of processes that caused the contraction of a cold front to a microscale zone exhibiting an undular bore-like structure. Results were reported at a scientific conference and are being prepared for publication. In summary, considerable progress has been achieved under NASA funding in furthering our understanding of frontal scale contraction and density current - gravity wave interaction processes, and in utilizing models and remotely sensed data in such studies.

Koch, Steven E.↗

NASA NTRS2015

Nonlinear Dynamic Modeling of a Supersonic Commercial Transport Turbo-Machinery Propulsion System for Aero-Propulso-Servo-Elasticity Research

This paper covers the development of an integrated nonlinear dynamic model for a variable cycle turbofan engine, supersonic inlet, and convergent-divergent nozzle that can be integrated with an aeroelastic vehicle model to create an overall Aero-Propulso-Servo-Elastic (APSE) modeling tool. The primary focus of this study is to provide a means to capture relevant thrust dynamics of a full supersonic propulsion system by using relatively simple quasi-one dimensional computational fluid dynamics (CFD) methods that will allow for accurate control algorithm development and capture the key aspects of the thrust to feed into an APSE model. Previously, propulsion system component models have been developed and are used for this study of the fully integrated propulsion system. An overview of the methodology is presented for the modeling of each propulsion component, with a focus on its associated coupling for the overall model. To conduct APSE studies the de- scribed dynamic propulsion system model is integrated into a high fidelity CFD model of the full vehicle capable of conducting aero-elastic studies. Dynamic thrust analysis for the quasi-one dimensional dynamic propulsion system model is presented along with an initial three dimensional flow field model of the engine integrated into a supersonic commercial transport.

Propulsion↗

NASA NTRS2015

Nonlinear Dynamic Modeling of a Supersonic Commercial Transport Turbo-Machinery Propulsion System for Aero-Propulso-Servo-Elasticity Research

This paper covers the development of an integrated nonlinear dynamic model for a variable cycle turbofan engine, supersonic inlet, and convergent-divergent nozzle that can be integrated with an aeroelastic vehicle model to create an overall Aero-Propulso-Servo-Elastic (APSE) modeling tool. The primary focus of this study is to provide a means to capture relevant thrust dynamics of a full supersonic propulsion system by using relatively simple quasi-one dimensional computational fluid dynamics (CFD) methods that will allow for accurate control algorithm development and capture the key aspects of the thrust to feed into an APSE model. Previously, propulsion system component models have been developed and are used for this study of the fully integrated propulsion system. An overview of the methodology is presented for the modeling of each propulsion component, with a focus on its associated coupling for the overall model. To conduct APSE studies the described dynamic propulsion system model is integrated into a high fidelity CFD model of the full vehicle capable of conducting aero-elastic studies. Dynamic thrust analysis for the quasi-one dimensional dynamic propulsion system model is presented along with an initial three dimensional flow field model of the engine integrated into a supersonic commercial transport.

Control Theory↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

System Safety Analysis of Complex NASA Systems with Model-Based Engineering

The emergence of model-based engineering is transforming design and analysis methodologies [5]. A recognized benefit of model-based engineering is the existence of a “single source of truth” about the system that becomes the authoritative source of data and information for designers, analysts, and developers. This promotes consistency and efficiency as the design emerges and can be used to further optimize the design. Integrating System Safety Engineers to the “single source of truth” will ensure that the outputs of their assessments and analyses are relevant to the design as it evolves. Use of an integrated system model enables near immediate evaluation of a design change as well as development of operational processes for risk assessment and communication. Such models can enable efficient and timely analysis of system hazards (e.g., hazard fault tree analysis and procedure simulations) and produce complete, accurate, and more consistent products (e.g., hazard reports and safety requirement evaluations). Therefore, an agency-sponsored team at Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC) recently completed a System Safety Study of modeling and testing capabilities as part of a Model-Based Safety and Mission Assurance Initiative (MBSMAI). Using an existing model developed for reliability analyses [1], GSFC modeling and system safety experts performed system safety analysis/modeling and produced safety products. The team evaluated model-based feasibility to support System Safety Engineering, developed safety analysis modeling processes, and identified tool capability advancement/development needs. These study results indicate model-based engineering is valid and useable for System

NASA↗