Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “Model error”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 1,405 records · Page 78
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS1986

Precision of vertical position estimates from very long baseline interferometry

It is found that the precision of VLBI measurements of vertical crustal motions is limited by errors in the modeling of the propagation delay through the earth's neutral atmosphere, and by errors in finding the orientation of a fixed crust coordinate system in the VLBI reference frame. The repeatability of baseline length measurements study indicates a vertical position precision of about 8 cm, averaged over 13 sites and 4.5 years of data, while the repeatability of vertical position estimates for a Richmond, FL site is found to yield a precision of about 7 cm for 42 observations made over an 11-month period. An overall precision of 8 cm for a 24-hour VLBI observing session is obtained, and the effects of earth orientation parameter errors is contingent on the distances between the VLBI sites.

Herring, T. A.↗
NASA NTRS1993

The use of antioptimization to compare alternative structural models

Structural models are usually tested by comparing their response with that of a reference structure (an actual structure or a more refined model) to a limited number of arbitrary loads. This test is not always reliable because the loads are arbitrary. An antioptimization-based method is proposed to test structural models. This method compares a structural model with a reference model or an actual structure under the worst loading case that maximizes the error in the model. Specifically, the method identifies the loading case that maximizes the difference between the responses of two models of the same structure using optimization. This method can be used to design experiments in order to validate a structural model. It can also be applied to identify damage in a structure by determining the load that maximizes the difference in the behavior of the damaged and the intact structure. The proposed method is illustrated by applying it to a plate and an automotive structure.

Gangadharan, S. N.↗
NASA NTRS2019

Modeling Quiet Solar Luminosity Variability from TSI Satellite Measurements and Proxy Models During 1980–2018

A continuous record of direct total solar irradiance (TSI) observations began with a series of satellite experiments in 1978. This record requires comparisons of overlapping satellite observations with adequate relative precisions to provide useful long term TSI trend information. Herein we briefly review the active cavity radiometer irradiance monitor physikalisch-meteorologisches observatorium davos (ACRIM-PMOD) TSI composite controversy regarding how the total solar irradiance (TSI) has evolved since 1978 and about whether TSI significantly increased or slightly decreased from 1980 to 2000. The main question is whether TSI increased or decreased during the so-called ACRIM-gap period from 1989 to 1992. There is significant discrepancy between TSI proxy models and observations before and after the gap, which requires a careful revisit of the data analysis and modeling performed during the ACRIM-gap period. In this study, we use three recently proposed TSI proxy models that do not present any TSI increase during the ACRIM-gap, and show that they agree with the TSI data only from 1996 to 2016. However, these same models significantly diverge from the observations from 1981 and 1996. Thus, the scaling errors must be different between the two periods, which suggests errors in these models. By adjusting the TSI proxy models to agree with the data patterns before and after the ACRIM-gap, we found that these models miss a slowly varying TSI component. The adjusted models suggest that the quiet solar luminosity increased from the 1986 to the 1996 TSI minimum by about 0.45 W/sq.m reaching a peak near 2000 and decreased by about 0.15 W/sq.m from the 1996 to the 2008 TSI cycle minimum. This pattern is found to be compatible with the ACRIM TSI composite and confirms the ACRIM TSI increasing trend from 1980 to 2000, followed by a long-term decreasing trend since.

Scafetta, Nicola↗
NASA NTRS2019

Modeling Quiet Solar Luminosity Variability from TSI Satellite Measurements and Proxy Models during 1980-2018

A continuous record of direct total solar irradiance (TSI) observations began with a series of satellite experiments in 1978. This record requires comparisons of overlapping satellite observations with adequate relative precisions to provide useful long term TSI trend information. Herein we briefly review the active cavity radiometer irradiance monitor physikalisch-meteorologisches observatorium davos (ACRIM-PMOD) TSI composite controversy regarding how the total solar irradiance (TSI) has evolved since 1978 and about whether TSI significantly increased or slightly decreased from 1980 to 2000. The main question is whether TSI increased or decreased during the so-called ACRIM-gap period from 1989 to 1992. There is significant discrepancy between TSI proxy models and observations before and after the gap, which requires a careful revisit of the data analysis and modeling performed during the ACRIM-gap period. In this study, we use three recently proposed TSI proxy models that do not present any TSI increase during the ACRIM-gap, and show that they agree with the TSI data only from 1996 to 2016. However, these same models significantly diverge from the observations from 1981 and 1996. Thus, the scaling errors must be different between the two periods, which suggests errors in these models. By adjusting the TSI proxy models to agree with the data patterns before and after the ACRIM-gap, we found that these models miss a slowly varying TSI component. The adjusted models suggest that the quiet solar luminosity increased from the 1986 to the 1996 TSI minimum by about 0.45 W/m2 reaching a peak near 2000 and decreased by about 0.15 W/m2 from the 1996 to the 2008 TSI cycle minimum. This pattern is found to be compatible with the ACRIM TSI composite and confirms the ACRIM TSI increasing trend from 1980 to 2000, followed by a long-term decreasing trend since.

total solar irradiance↗
NASA NTRS2022

SO2 Plumes Observation with LMOL: Theory, Modeling, and Validation

LMOL, the NASA Langley Mobile Ozone Lidar, is locatednear NASA’s LaRC steam plant when not deployed in campaigns. Theplant produces steam through the incineration of local trash, and itsexhaust plume occasionally contains SO2.SO2is a known, regulated, pollutant that affects O3observations in theUV, as is the case with LMOL. In this work, we show how we modifiedLMOL to detect the plant SO2plumes and compute its density when theO3background is stable; we observed densities compatible with what isexpected from the typical plume exhaust. The selection of laser lines sothat an O3variation would not get confused with a SO2detection isexplained in details, and a model capable of simulating the Lidar signalwith (notably) O3and SO2absorption for the validation of the retrievalresolution and uncertainty is presented. Finally, the comparison betweenthe modeled and observed performances of the system is shown: themaximum altitude, resolution, and error in the modeled signal and theobserved signals are the same within reasonable margins.This work demonstrates that LMOL is fully capable of working withSO2. The next step being the addition of an additional laser channel,which is simplified by the tunable aspect of the LMOL laser, to addressO3and SO2simultaneously, allowing the assessment of SO2when O3has variations.

Guillaume Gronoff↗
NASA NTRS2015

Numerical Calibration of Mass Flow Plug for Inlet Testing

A simple control volume model has been developed to calculate the discharge coefficient through a mass flow plug (MFP) and validated with a calibration experiment. The maximum error of the model within the operating region of the MFP is 0.54%. The control volume analysis developed work is comprised of a sequence of flow calculations through the MFP. The model uses the MFP geometry and operating pressure and temperature to couple continuity, momentum, energy, an equation of state, and wall shear. The discharge coefficient calculation also includes the effects of boundary layer growth, including the reduction in cross-sectional flow area as characterized by the boundary layer displacement thickness. The last calculation in the sequence uses an integral method to calculate the growth of the boundary layer, from which the displacement thickness is then determined. The result of these successive calculations is an accurate one-dimension model of the velocity, pressure, and temperature through the MFP. For comparison, a computational fluid dynamic (CFD) calibration is shown, which when compared to the presented numerical model, had a lower accuracy with a maximum error of 1.35% in addition to being slower by a factor of 100."

Flow Measurement↗
NASA NTRS1991

Error associated with a reduced order linear model of a spur gear pair

The paper proposes a reduced-order analytical model of a spur gear pair which consists of two identical spur gears, two identical flexible shafts, and four identical rolling element bearings of a given radial stiffness. The error associated with the undamped eigensolution is estimated by a comparison with a benchmark finite element model.

Kahraman, A.↗
DOE OSTI2022

Wind turbine gearbox fault prognosis using high-frequency SCADA data

Condition-based maintenance using routinely collected Supervisory Control and Data Acquisition (SCADA) data is a promising strategy to reduce downtime and costs associated with wind farm operations and maintenance. New approaches are continuously being developed to improve the condition monitoring for wind turbines. Development of normal behaviour models is a popular approach in studies using SCADA data. This paper first presents a data-driven framework to apply normal behaviour models using an artificial neural network approach for wind turbine gearbox prognostics. A one-class support vector machine classifier, combining different error parameters, is used to analyse the normal behaviour model error to develop a robust threshold to distinguish anomalous wind turbine operation. A detailed sensitivity study is then conducted to evaluate the potential of using high-frequency SCADA data for wind turbine gearbox prognostics. The results based on operational data from one wind turbine show that, compared to the conventionally used 10-min averaged SCADA data, the use of high-frequency data is valuable as it leads to improved prognostic predictions. High-frequency data provides more insights into the dynamics of the condition of the wind turbine components and can aid in earlier detection of faults.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Comparing Compressed and Full-Modeling analyses with FOLPS: implications for DESI 2024 and beyond

The Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI) will provide unprecedented information about the large-scale structure of our Universe. In this work, we study the robustness of the theoretical modelling of the power spectrum of F OLPS , a novel effective field theory-based package for evaluating the redshift space power spectrum in the presence of massive neutrinos. We perform this validation by fitting the AbacusSummit high-accuracy N -body simulations for Luminous Red Galaxies, Emission Line Galaxies and Quasar tracers, calibrated to describe DESI observations. We quantify the potential systematic error budget of F OLPS finding that the modelling errors are fully sub-dominant for the DESI statistical precision within the studied range of scales. Additionally, we study two complementary approaches to fit and analyse the power spectrum data, one based on direct Full-Modelling fits and the other on the ShapeFit compression variables, both resulting in very good agreement in precision and accuracy. In each of these approaches, we study a set of potential systematic errors induced by several assumptions, such as the choice of template cosmology, the effect of prior choice in the nuisance parameters of the model, or the range of scales used in the analysis. Furthermore, we show how opening up the parameter space beyond the vanilla ΛCDM model affects the DESI observables. These studies include the addition of massive neutrinos, spatial curvature, and dark energy equation of state. We also examine how relaxing the usual Cosmic Microwave Background and Big Bang Nucleosynthesis priors on the primordial spectral index and the baryonic matter abundance, respectively, impacts the inference on the rest of the parameters of interest. This paper pathways towards performing a robust and reliable analysis of the shape of the power spectrum of DESI galaxy and quasar clustering using F OLPS .

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
NASA NTRS1997

Meta-Modeling: A Knowledge-Based Approach to Facilitating Model Construction and Reuse

In this paper, we introduce a new modeling approach called meta-modeling and illustrate its practical applicability to the construction of physically-based ecosystem process models. As a critical adjunct to modeling codes meta-modeling requires explicit specification of certain background information related to the construction and conceptual underpinnings of a model. This information formalizes the heretofore tacit relationship between the mathematical modeling code and the underlying real-world phenomena being investigated, and gives insight into the process by which the model was constructed. We show how the explicit availability of such information can make models more understandable and reusable and less subject to misinterpretation. In particular, background information enables potential users to better interpret an implemented ecosystem model without direct assistance from the model author. Additionally, we show how the discipline involved in specifying background information leads to improved management of model complexity and fewer implementation errors. We illustrate the meta-modeling approach in the context of the Scientists' Intelligent Graphical Modeling Assistant (SIGMA) a new model construction environment. As the user constructs a model using SIGMA the system adds appropriate background information that ties the executable model to the underlying physical phenomena under investigation. Not only does this information improve the understandability of the final model it also serves to reduce the overall time and programming expertise necessary to initially build and subsequently modify models. Furthermore, SIGMA's use of background knowledge helps eliminate coding errors resulting from scientific and dimensional inconsistencies that are otherwise difficult to avoid when building complex models. As a. demonstration of SIGMA's utility, the system was used to reimplement and extend a well-known forest ecosystem dynamics model: Forest-BGC.

Keller, Richard M.↗
NASA NTRS1991

Navigation accuracy analysis for the TDRSS Onboard Navigation System (TONS) experiment on EP/EUVE

A navigation accuracy analysis of the TONS (TDRSS Onboard Navigation System) experiment on the Explorer Platform/Extreme Ultraviolet Explorer (EP/EUVE) is reported. The analysis process includes both sequential estimation covariance analysis and the processing of 'realistic' simulated tracking data. The sensitivity of the navigation accuracy to force modeling and measurement errors is evaluated as a function of the tracking schedule and the process noise model tuning parameters.

Gramling, C. J.↗
NASA NTRS1994

Modeling the two-point correlation of the vector stream function

A new model for the two-point vector stream function correlation has been developed using tensor invariant arguments and evaluated by the comparison of model predictions with DNS data for incompressible homogeneous turbulent shear flow. This two-point vector stream function model correlation can then be used to calculate the two-point velocity correlation function and other quantities useful in turbulence modeling. The model assumes that the two-point vector stream function correlation can be written in terms of the separation vector and a new tensor function that depends only on the magnitude of the separation vector. The model has a single free model coefficient, which has been chosen by comparison with the DNS data. The relative error of the model predictions of the two-point vector stream function correlation is only a few percent for a broad range of the model coefficient. Predictions of the derivatives of this correlation, which are of interest in turbulence modeling, may not be this accurate.

Oberlack, M.↗
NASA NTRS2016

Modeling Forest Biomass and Growth: Coupling Long-Term Inventory and Lidar Data

Combining spatially-explicit long-term forest inventory and remotely sensed information from Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR) datasets through statistical models can be a powerful tool for predicting and mapping above-ground biomass (AGB) at a range of geographic scales. We present and examine a novel modeling approach to improve prediction of AGB and estimate AGB growth using LiDAR data. The proposed model accommodates temporal misalignment between field measurements and remotely sensed data-a problem pervasive in such settings-by including multiple time-indexed measurements at plot locations to estimate AGB growth. We pursue a Bayesian modeling framework that allows for appropriately complex parameter associations and uncertainty propagation through to prediction. Specifically, we identify a space-varying coefficients model to predict and map AGB and its associated growth simultaneously. The proposed model is assessed using LiDAR data acquired from NASA Goddard's LiDAR, Hyper-spectral & Thermal imager and field inventory data from the Penobscot Experimental Forest in Bradley, Maine. The proposed model outperformed the time-invariant counterpart models in predictive performance as indicated by a substantial reduction in root mean squared error. The proposed model adequately accounts for temporal misalignment through the estimation of forest AGB growth and accommodates residual spatial dependence. Results from this analysis suggest that future AGB models informed using remotely sensed data, such as LiDAR, may be improved by adapting traditional modeling frameworks to account for temporal misalignment and spatial dependence using random effects.

Babcock, Chad↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

SO2 Plumes Observation with LMOL: Theory, Modeling, and Validation

LMOL, the NASA Langley Mobile Ozone Lidar, is located near NASA’s LaRC steam plant when not deployed in campaigns. The plant produces steam through the incineration of local trash, and its exhaust plume occasionally contains SO2 . SO2 is a known, regulated, pollutant that affects O3 observations in the UV, as is the case with LMOL. In this work, we show how we modified LMOL to detect the plant SO2 plumes and compute its density when the O3 background is stable; we observed densities compatible with what is expected from the typical plume exhaust. The selection of laser lines so that an O3 variation would not get confused with a SO2 detection is explained in details, and a model capable of simulating the Lidar signal with (notably) O3 and SO2 absorption for the validation of the retrieval resolution and uncertainty is presented. Finally, the comparison between the modeled and observed performances of the system is shown: the maximum altitude, resolution, and error in the modeled signal and the observed signals are the same within reasonable margins. This work demonstrates that LMOL is fully capable of working with SO2 . The next step being the addition of an additional laser channel, which is simplified by the tunable aspect of the LMOL laser, to address O3 and SO2 simultaneously, allowing the assessment of SO2 when O3 has variations. Note: This presentation is accompanied by an mp4 video of the given talk.

Guillaume Gronoff↗
NASA NTRS1978

A parametric multiclass Bayes error estimator for the multispectral scanner spatial model performance evaluation

The author has identified the following significant results. The probability of correct classification of various populations in data was defined as the primary performance index. The multispectral data being of multiclass nature as well, required a Bayes error estimation procedure that was dependent on a set of class statistics alone. The classification error was expressed in terms of an N dimensional integral, where N was the dimensionality of the feature space. The multispectral scanner spatial model was represented by a linear shift, invariant multiple, port system where the N spectral bands comprised the input processes. The scanner characteristic function, the relationship governing the transformation of the input spatial, and hence, spectral correlation matrices through the systems, was developed.

Mobasseri, B. G.↗
NASA NTRS1993

Preliminary GPS orbit determination results for the Extreme Ultraviolet Explorer

A single-frequency Motorola Global Positioning System (GPS) receiver was launched with the Extreme Ultraviolet Explorer mission in June 1992. The receiver utilizes dual GPS antennas placed on opposite sides of the satellite to obtain full GPS coverage as it rotates during its primary scanning mission. A data set from this GPS experiment has been processed at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory with the GIPSY-OASIS 2 software package. The single-frequency, dual antenna approach and the low altitude (approximately 500 km) orbit of the satellite create special problems for the GPS orbit determination analysis. The low orbit implies that the dynamics of the spacecraft will be difficult to model, and that atmospheric drag will be an important error source. A reduced-dynamic solution technique was investigated in which ad hoc accelerations were estimated at each time step to absorb dynamic model error. In addition, a single-frequency ionospheric correction was investigated, and a cycle-slip detector was written. Orbit accuracy is currently better than 5 m. Further optimization should improve this to about 1 m.

Gold, Kenn↗
NASA NTRS1990

Simulated forecast error and climate drift resulting from the omission of the upper stratosphere in numerical models

Using an NCAR community climate model, Version I, the forecast error growth and the climate drift resulting from the omission of the upper stratosphere are investigated. In the experiment, the control simulation is a seasonal integration of a medium horizontal general circulation model with 30 levels extending from the surface to the upper mesosphere, while the main experiment uses an identical model, except that only the bottom 15 levels (below 10 mb) are retained. It is shown that both random and systematic errors develop rapidly in the lower stratosphere with some local propagation into the troposphere in the 10-30-day time range. The random growth rate in the troposphere in the case of the altered upper boundary was found to be slightly faster than that for the initial-condition uncertainty alone. However, this is not likely to make a significant impact in operational forecast models, because the initial-condition uncertainty is very large.

Boville, Byron A.↗