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At least 1,405 records · Page 78

Underestimation of multi-decadal global O 2 loss due to an optimal interpolation method

Abstract. The global ocean's oxygen content has declined significantly over the past several decades and is expected to continue decreasing under global warming, with far-reaching impacts on marine ecosystems and biogeochemical cycling. Determining the oxygen trend, its spatial pattern, and uncertainties from observations is fundamental to our understanding of the changing ocean environment. This study uses a suite of CMIP6 Earth system models to evaluate the biases and uncertainties in oxygen distribution and trends due to sampling sparseness. Model outputs are sub-sampled according to the spatial and temporal distribution of the historical shipboard measurements, and the data gaps are filled by a simple optimal interpolation method using Gaussian covariance with a constant e-folding length scale. Sub-sampled results are compared to full model output, revealing the biases in global and basin-wise oxygen content trends. The simple optimal interpolation underestimates the modeled global deoxygenation trends, capturing approximately two-thirds of the full model trends. The North Atlantic and subpolar North Pacific are relatively well sampled, and the simple optimal interpolation is capable of reconstructing more than 80 % of the oxygen trend in the non-eddying CMIP models. In contrast, pronounced biases are found in the equatorial oceans and the Southern Ocean, where the sampling density is relatively low. The application of the simple optimal interpolation method to the historical dataset estimated the global oxygen loss to be 1.5 % over the past 50 years. However, the ratio of the global oxygen trend between the sub-sampled and full model output has increased the estimated loss rate in the range of 1.7 % to 3.1 % over the past 50 years, which partially overlaps with previous studies. The approach taken in this study can provide a framework for the intercomparison of different statistical gap-filling methods to estimate oxygen content trends and their uncertainties due to sampling sparseness.

Ito, Takamitsu (ORCID:000000019873099X)↗

Cosmogenic nuclide and solute flux data from central Cuban rivers emphasize the importance of both physical and chemical mass loss from tropical landscapes

We use 25 new measurements of in situ produced cosmogenic 26 Al and 10 Be in river sand, paired with estimates of dissolved load flux in river water, to characterize the processes and pace of landscape change in central Cuba. Long-term erosion rates inferred from 10 Be concentrations in quartz extracted from central Cuban river sand range from 3.4–189 Mg km –2 yr –1 (mean 59, median 45). Dissolved loads (10–176 Mg km –2 yr –1 ; mean 92, median 97), calculated from stream solute concentrations and modeled runoff, exceed measured cosmogenic- 10 Be-derived erosion rates in 18 of 23 basins. This disparity mandates that in this environment landscape-scale mass loss is not fully represented by the cosmogenic nuclide measurements. The 26 Al / 10 Be ratios are lower than expected for steadystate exposure or erosion in 16 of 24 samples. Depressed 26 Al/ 10 Be ratios occur in many of the basins that have the greatest disparity between dissolved loads (high) and erosion rates inferred from cosmogenic nuclide concentrations (low). Depressed 26 Al/ 10 Be ratios are consistent with the presence of a deep, mixed, regolith layer providing extended storage times on slopes and/or burial and extended storage during fluvial transport. River water chemical analyses indicate that many basins with lower 26 Al/ 10 Be ratios and high 10 Be concentrations are underlain at least in part by evaporitic rocks that rapidly dissolve. Our data show that when assessing mass loss in humid tropical landscapes, accounting for the contribution of rock dissolution at depth is particularly important. In such warm, wet climates, mineral dissolution can occur many meters below the surface, beyond the penetration depth of most cosmic rays and thus the production of most cosmogenic nuclides. Our data suggest the importance of estimating solute fluxes and measuring paired cosmogenic nuclides to better understand the processes and rates of mass transfer at a basin scale.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Resolving glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) in response to modern and future ice loss at marine grounding lines in West Antarctica

Accurate glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) modelling in the cryosphere is required for interpreting satellite, geophysical and geological records and for assessing the feedbacks of Earth deformation and sea-level change on marine ice-sheet grounding lines. GIA modelling in areas of active ice loss in West Antarctica is particularly challenging because the ice is underlain by laterally varying mantle viscosities that are up to several orders of magnitude lower than the global average, leading to a faster and more localised response of the solid Earth to ongoing and future ice-sheet retreat and necessitating GIA models that incorporate 3-D viscoelastic Earth structure. Improvements to GIA models allow for computation of the viscoelastic response of the Earth to surface ice loading at sub-kilometre resolution, and ice-sheet models and observational products now provide the inputs to GIA models at comparably unprecedented detail. However, the resolution required to accurately capture GIA in models remains poorly understood, and high-resolution calculations come at heavy computational expense. We adopt a 3-D GIA model with a range of Earth structure models based on recent seismic tomography and geodetic data to perform a comprehensive analysis of the influence of grid resolution on predictions of GIA in the Amundsen Sea Embayment (ASE) in West Antarctica. Through idealised sensitivity testing down to sub-kilometre resolution with spatially isolated ice loading changes, we find that a grid resolution of ~$\frac{1}{3}$ of the radius of the load or higher is required to accurately capture the elastic response of the Earth. However, when we consider more realistic, spatially coherent ice loss scenarios based on modern observational records and future ice-sheet model projections and adopt a viscoelastic Earth, we find that predicted deformation and sea-level change along the grounding line converge to within 5 % with grid resolutions of 7.5 km or higher, and to within 2% for grid resolutions of 3.75 km and higher, even when the input ice model is on a 1 km grid. Furthermore, we show that low mantle viscosities beneath the ASE lead to viscous deformation that contributes to the instrumental record on decadal timescales and equals or dominates over elastic effects by the end of the 21st century. Our findings suggest that for the range of resolutions of 1.9–15 km that we considered, the error due to adopting a coarser grid in this region is negligible compared to the effect of neglecting viscous effects and the uncertainty in the adopted mantle viscosity structure.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Beyond pinball loss: Quantile methods for calibrated uncertainty quantification

Amongthemanywaysofquantifying uncertainty in a regression setting, specifying the full quantile function is attractive, as quantiles are amenable to interpretation and evaluation. A model that predicts the true conditional quantiles for each input, at all quantile levels, presents a correct and efficient representation of the underlying uncertainty. To achieve this, many current quantile-based methods focus on optimizing the pinball loss. However, this loss restricts the scope of applicable regression models, limits the ability to target many desirable properties (e.g. calibration, sharpness, centered intervals), and may produce poor conditional quantiles. In this work, we develop new quantile methods that address these shortcomings. In particular, we propose methods that can apply to any class of regression model, select an explicit balance between calibration and sharpness, optimize for calibration of centered intervals, and produce more accurate conditional quantiles. We provide a thorough experimental evaluation of our methods, which includes a high dimensional uncertainty quantification task in nuclear fusion.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Datasets for "Excessive rainfall leads to maize yield loss of a comparable magnitude to extreme drought in the United States"

Updated on 2021/07/01 Add python codes for data processing of the NASS yield data, PRISM climate data, RMA insurance data, agmip yield simulation data, and related geospatial analysis-------------------This repository is for the datasets and codes for “Excessive rainfall leads to maize yield loss of a comparable magnitude to extreme drought in the United States” (Li et al. 2019 GCB). The datasets include maize yield, climate data, maize yield loss from crop insurance data in the US, etc. The datasets can reproduce the results of the paper and they can also be reused to explore other topics. Please cite Li et al (2019) or acknowledge this dataset (DOI: 10.6084/m9.figshare.7581473) when using it.

Agricultural spatial analysis and modelling↗

SMTN-003: Trailing Losses for Moving Objects

Trailing losses occur for Solar System objects when their motion during an image results in their detection covering more than the equivalent stellar PSF for that image. This results in a decreased SNR for the moving object compared to a stationary point source. There are two distinct sources of this decreased SNR: if the moving object measurement is done with a trailed PSF that matches the moving object PSF, SNR decreases due to the additional background sky pixels (larger n_effective) in the trailed PSF; if the moving object measurement is done with a point-source PSF that does not match the moving object's PSF, SNR decreases due to the flux missed outside the point-source PSF. This technote evaluates trailing losses from both sources and provides a summary formula to calculate each from the moving object's velocity and the image's FWHM and exposure time.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Full wave simulations of fast wave efficiency and power losses in the scrape-off layer of tokamak plasmas in mid/high harmonic and minority heating regimes

Several experiments on different machines and in different fast wave (FW) heating regimes, such as hydrogen minority heating and high harmonic fast waves, have found strong interaction between radio-frequency (RF) waves and the scrape-off layer (SOL) region. This paper examines the propagation and the power loss in the SOL by using the full wave code AORSA, in which the edge plasma beyond the last closed flux surface (LCFS) is included in the solution domain and a collisional damping parameter is used as a proxy to represent the real, and most likely nonlinear, damping processes. 3D AORSA results for National Spherical Torus eXperiment (NSTX), where a full antenna spectrum is reconstructed, are shown confirming the same behavior found for a single toroidal mode results in Bertelli et al Nucl. Fusion, 54 083004, 2014, namely, a strong transition to higher SOL power losses (driven by the RF field) has been found when the FW cut-off is removed from in front of the antenna by increasing the edge density. Additionally, full wave simulations have been extended for “conventional” tokamaks with higher aspect ratios, such as the DIII-D, Alcator C-Mod, and EAST devices. DIII-D results show similar behavior found in NSTX and NSTX-U, consistent with previous DIII-D experimental observations. In contrast, a different behavior has been found for C-Mod and EAST, which operate in the minority heating regime unlike NSTX/NSTX-U and DIII-D, which operate in the mid/high harmonic regime.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Improved insertion-loss tester

An improved test method accurately measures the insertion loss of RF components while avoiding amplifier drift. Currents are balanced across a bridge transformer with shorted probes and then with each component to be tested. Differences in adjustments indicate the loss.

Finnie, C. J.↗

Correction for losses in optical birefringent networks, a concept

Technique determines the effects of losses upon the performance of a birefringent network and shows how the desired amplitude transmittance of the network may be corrected /or predistorted/, prior to synthesizing the birefringent network, to prevent the effects of crystal losses.

Amman, E. O.↗

A radiometric method for measuring the insertion loss of radome materials

Radiometer system measures effective noise temperature directed towards sky, with and without radome over antenna horn. Data is then translated into computer format. With additional transmission line insertion loss data from other measurements, computer calculates insertion loss of radome material.

Seidel, B. L.↗

Alternating current losses in superconducting coils

Report examines relationship between coil loss and frequency and heat loss in coil as a function of the magnetic field H. Information is of value to manufacturers of superconducting magnets, motors and generators.

Wipf, S. L.↗

Emergency cooling analysis for the loss of coolant malfunction

This report examines the dynamic response of a conceptual space power fast-spectrum lithium cooled reactor to the loss of coolant malfunction and several emergency cooling concepts. The results show that, following the loss of primary coolant, the peak temperatures of the center most 73 fuel elements can range from 2556 K to the region of the fuel melting point of 3122 K within 3600 seconds after the start of the accident. Two types of emergency aftercooling concepts were examined: (1) full core open loop cooling and (2) partial core closed loop cooling. The full core open loop concept is a one pass method of supplying lithium to the 247 fuel pins. This method can maintain fuel temperature below the 1611 K transient damage limit but requires a sizable 22,680-kilogram auxiliary lithium supply. The second concept utilizes a redundant internal closed loop to supply lithium to only the central area of each hexagonal fuel array. By using this method and supplying lithium to only the triflute region, fuel temperatures can be held well below the transient damage limit.

Peoples, J. A.↗

Analysis of loss-of-coolant accident for a fast-spectrum lithium-cooled nuclear reactor for space-power applications

A two-dimensional, transient, heat-transfer analysis was made to determine the temperature response in the core of a conceptual space-power nuclear reactor following a total loss of reactor coolant. With loss of coolant from the reactor, the controlling mode of heat transfer is thermal radiation. In one of the schemes considered for removing decay heat from the core, it was assumed that the 4 pi shield which surrounds the core acts as a constant-temperature sink (temperature, 700 K) for absorption of thermal radiation from the core. Results based on this scheme of heat removal show that melting of fuel in the core is possible only when the emissivity of the heat-radiating surfaces in the core is less than about 0.40. In another scheme for removing the afterheat, the core centerline fuel pin was replaced by a redundant, constant temperature, coolant channel. Based on an emissivity of 0.20 for all material surfaces in the core, the calculated maximum fuel temperature for this scheme of heat removal was 2840 K, or about 90 K less than the melting temperature of the UN fuel.

Turney, G. E.↗

Experimental study of flow distribution and pressure loss with circumferential inlet and outlet manifolds

Water flow tests with circumferential inlet and outlet manifolds were conducted to determine factors affecting fluid distribution and pressure losses. Various orifice sizes and manifold geometries were tested over a range of flow velocities. With inlet manifolds, flow distribution was related directly to orifice discharge coefficients. A correlation indicated that nonuniform distribution resulted when the velocity head ratio at the orifice was not in the range of constant discharge coefficient. With outlet manifolds, nonuniform flow was related to static pressure variations along the manifold. Outlet manifolds had appreciably greater pressure losses than comparable inlet manifolds.

Dittrich, R. T.↗

Relationship of dislocation density of silicon to solar cell current loss at low temperature

Large decreases in short circuit current of silicon solar cells have been reported to occur as temperature is decreased below -60 C. Experimental results are presented which relate high dislocation density of the silicon bulk material of cells to the large current loss effect. Solar cells were made by the same processes from a variety of silicon materials, namely low-dislocation-density, high-dislocation-density float-zone, and Czochralski silicon. All cells were etched in a manner which revealed the dislocation density of the cell bulk silicon. It was found that every cell made from any of the various low-dislocation starting materials obtained from three suppliers still had a low-dislocation bulk after cell processing, and that all such cells belonged to category good. Cells made from float-zone materials showed high dislocation densities in their bulk and either fell into category poor, or had intermediate losses of short-circuit current at low temperature.

Mandelkorn, J.↗