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At least 1,405 records · Page 78

Hybrid Power Purchase Agreements for Flexible 24/7 Energy Delivery – A Comprehensive Review of Current Practices and Research Pathways

Power Purchase Agreements (PPAs) are becoming increasingly preferred among large energy consumers, such as data centers, to secure cost-effective energy and meet accelerating demand growth. Traditionally, variable renewable energy (VRE)-based PPAs operate on a pay-as-produced basis, balancing supply and demand for a relatively longer duration (e.g., annually). However, the focus is shifting toward matching supply and demand on an hourly basis to fully meet energy needs. This shift requires the integration of flexible energy resources, such as hydropower, thermal generation, and energy storage, to complement VRE sources like wind and solar, forming the foundation for 24/7 PPA. This work contributes by: (i) reviewing emerging market trends and current practices in PPA procurement, supported by data on PPA prices and technology portfolios; (ii) synthesizing the existing literature on modeling approaches for contract pricing, quantities, hybrid resource procurement, and risk management in 24/7 PPA design, while identifying key research gaps; and (iii) proposing an integrated 24/7 PPA design framework along with two contracting mechanisms from the perspectives of both PPA providers and consumers. The proposed framework highlights critical modeling challenges, risk-allocation issues, and future research opportunities for 24/7 PPA design.

24/7↗

Utilizing HYSPLIT for Emergency Response Modeling at SRS

At SRS, emergency responders use a variety of tools to detect, track, and mitigate hazardous material releases into the atmosphere. Two models currently used at SRS are Puff-Plume and the Lagrangian Particle Dispersion Model (LPDM), a Gaussian and Lagrangian model, respectively. A decision has been made to replace LPDM with the more widely-supported Hybrid Single-Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory (HYSPLIT) model for evaluating inhalation and ingestion doses following a release. HYSPLIT is designed to compute complex dispersion and deposition simulation To achieve the implementation of HYSPLIT, we have developed a preliminary UI framework that will allow HYSPLIT to be run on ATG computers without the need for active network connections, thus avoiding the loss of capabilities in the event of a network outage during an emergency.

Earley, Ian↗

An Evolve-Then-Correct Reduced Order Model for Hidden Fluid Dynamics

In this paper, we put forth an evolve-then-correct reduced order modeling approach that combines intrusive and nonintrusive models to take hidden physical processes into account. Specifically, we split the underlying dynamics into known and unknown components. In the known part, we first utilize an intrusive Galerkin method projected on a set of basis functions obtained by proper orthogonal decomposition. We then present two variants of correction formula based on the assumption that the observed data are a manifestation of all relevant processes. The first method uses a standard least-squares regression with a quadratic approximation and requires solving a rank-deficient linear system, while the second approach employs a recurrent neural network emulator to account for the correction term. We further enhance our approach by using an orthonormality conforming basis interpolation approach on a Grassmannian manifold to address off-design conditions. The proposed framework is illustrated here with the application of two-dimensional co-rotating vortex simulations under modeling uncertainty. The results demonstrate highly accurate predictions underlining the effectiveness of the evolve-then-correct approach toward real-time simulations, where the full process model is not known a priori.

long short-term memory↗

Merging for Particle-Mesh Complex Particle Kinetic Modeling of the Multiple Plasma Beams

We suggest a merging procedure for the Particle-Mesh Complex Particle Kinetic (PMCPK) method in case of inter-penetrating flow (multiple plasma beams). We examine the standard particle-in-cell (PIC) and the PMCPK methods in the case of particle acceleration by shock surfing for a wide range of the control numerical parameters. The plasma dynamics is described by a hybrid (particle-ion-fluid-electron) model. Note that one may need a mesh if modeling with the computation of an electromagnetic field. Our calculations use specified, time-independent electromagnetic fields for the shock, rather than self-consistently generated fields. While a particle-mesh method is a well-verified approach, the CPK method seems to be a good approach for multiscale modeling that includes multiple regions with various particle/fluid plasma behavior. However, the CPK method is still in need of a verification for studying the basic plasma phenomena: particle heating and acceleration by collisionless shocks, magnetic field reconnection, beam dynamics, etc.

Lipatov, Alexander S.↗

Flight Trajectory Prediction Based on Hybrid-Recurrent Networks

The development of future technologies for the National Airspace System (NAS) will be reliant on a new communications infrastructure capable of managing the limited available spectrum for communications among aircraft and ground systems. Emerging approaches to autonomous allocation of aviation spectrum mostlyrely on machine learning techniques, where 4D (longitude, latitude, altitude, time) trajectory prediction is an important data input to enable real-time resource allocation. This study explores and evaluates effective data sources and deep recurrent neural network techniques when determining flight trajectories. Specifically, data are collected and evaluated in a 100-day and 14-day period. Sources of data include NASA Sherlock Data Warehouse, MIT Lincoln Labs Corridor Integrated Weather Service (CIWS), and assorted NOAA weather datasets. Deep learning models for 4D predictions all utilize a hybrid-recurrent technique. A baseline model is considered via the convolutional-LSTM design from the existing literature. The modified design considers Gated Recurrent Units (GRU), Independently Recurrent Neural Networks (IndRNN), and stand-alone self-attention layers. Results indicatethe effectiveness of LSTM and GRUcells for state-of-the-art data processing (interpolation). Additionally, GRUs may be quickly trained with limited data, allowing for exacting improvements with optimizer selection. Attention mechanisms provide notable performance improvements to convolutional layers and may extend dimensional capabilities of a learning model. Finally, NOAA measurements provide only a supplemental value, requiring support from tailored measurements for Air Traffic Management.

Nathan Schimpf↗

Acoustic Noise Prediction of the Amine Swingbed ISS ExPRESS Rack Payload

Acoustics plays a vital role in maintaining the health, safety, and comfort of crew members aboard the International Space Station (ISS). In order to maintain this livable and workable environment, acoustic requirements have been established to ensure that ISS hardware and payload developers account for the acoustic emissions of their equipment and develop acoustic mitigations as necessary. These requirements are verified by an acoustic emissions test of the integrated hardware. The Amine Swingbed ExPRESS (Expedite the PRocessing of ExperimentS to Space) rack payload creates a unique challenge to the developers in that the payload hardware is transported to the ISS in phases, making an acoustic emissions test on the integrated flight hardware impossible. In addition, the payload incorporates a high back pressure fan and a diaphragm vacuum pump, which are recognized as significant and complex noise sources. In order to accurately predict the acoustic emissions of the integrated payload, the individual acoustic noise sources and paths are first characterized. These characterizations are conducted though a series of acoustic emissions tests on the individual payload components. Secondly, the individual acoustic noise sources and paths are incorporated into a virtual model of the integrated hardware. The virtual model is constructed with the use of hybrid method utilizing the Finite Element Acoustic (FEA) and Statistical Energy Analysis (SEA) techniques, which predict the overall acoustic emissions. Finally, the acoustic model is validated though an acoustic characterization test performed on an acoustically similar mock-up of the flight unit. The results of the validated acoustic model are then used to assess the acoustic emissions of the flight unit and define further acoustic mitigation efforts.

Welsh, David↗

Thermomechanical Response of Shape Memory Alloy Hybrid Composites

This study examines the use of embedded shape memory alloy (SMA) actuators for adaptive control of the thermomechanical response of composite structures. A nonlinear thermomechanical model is presented for analyzing shape memory alloy hybrid composite (SMAHC) structures exposed to steady-state thermal and dynamic mechanical loads. Also presented are (1) fabrication procedures for SMAHC specimens, (2) characterization of the constituent materials for model quantification, (3) development of the test apparatus for conducting static and dynamic experiments on specimens with and without SMA, (4) discussion of the experimental results, and (5) validation of the analytical and numerical tools developed in the study. Excellent agreement is achieved between the predicted and measured SAMHC responses including thermal buckling, thermal post-buckling and dynamic response due to inertial loading. The validated model and thermomechanical analysis tools are used to demonstrate a variety of static and dynamic response behaviors including control of static (thermal buckling and post-buckling) and dynamic responses (vibration, sonic fatigue, and acoustic transmission). and SMAHC design considerations for these applications. SMAHCs are shown to have significant advantages over conventional response abatement approaches for vibration, sonic fatigue, and noise control.

Turner, Travis L.↗

Effect of anisotropic fast ions on internal kink stability in DIII-D negative and positive triangularity plasmas

Recent DIII-D experiments show that sawtooth stability is strongly affected by anisotropic fast ions from neutral beam injection (NBI) in both negative and positive triangularity plasmas. Fast ions from co-current NBI are stabilizing for the sawtooth stability, resulting in longer sawtooth periods. On the other hand, fast ions from counter-current NBI are destabilizing, leading to small and frequent sawteeth. The relative change of sawtooth period and amplitude is more than a factor of two. These observations appear to hold in both plasma shapes. Non-perturbative toroidal modeling, utilizing the magnetohydrodynamic-kinetic hybrid stability code MARS-K (Liu et al 2008 Phys. Plasmas 15 112503), reveals an asymmetric dependence of the stability of the n = 1 (n is the toroidal mode number) internal kink mode on the injection direction of NBI, being qualitatively consistent with the experimentally observed sawtooth behavior. The MARS-K modeling results suggest that anisotropic fast ions affect the mode growth rate and frequency through both adiabatic and non-adiabatic contributions. Here, the asymmetry of the internal kink mode instability relative to the NBI direction is mainly due to the non-adiabatic contribution of passing fast ions, which stabilize (destabilize) the internal kink with the co-(counter-) current NBI as compared to the fluid counterpart. However, finite orbit width (FOW) correction to passing particles partially cancels the asymmetry. Trapped particles are always stabilizing due to precessional drift resonance. Modeling also shows that fast ions affect the internal kink in a similar manner in both negative and positive triangularity plasmas, although being slightly more unstable in the negative triangularity configuration already in the fluid limit. The similarity is mainly attributed to the fact that the mode is localized in the plasma core region, with very similar eigenmode structures in both negative and positive configurations. Furthermore, MARS-K modeling indicates that other factors, such as the plasma rotation and the drift kinetic effects of thermal plasmas, weakly modify the mode stability as compared to the drift kinetic resonance effects and FOW correction of fast ions.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Snow Distribution Patterns Revisited: A Physics-Based and Machine Learning Hybrid Approach to Snow Distribution Mapping in the Sub-Arctic

Snowpack distribution in Arctic and alpine landscapes often occurs in repeating, year-to-year patterns due to local topographic, weather, and vegetation characteristics. Previous studies have suggested that with years of observational data, these snow distribution patterns can be statistically integrated into a snow process modeling workflow. Recent advances in snow hydrology and machine learning (ML) have increased our ability to predict snowpack distribution using in-situ observations, remote sensing data sets, and simple landscape characteristics that can be easily obtained for most environments. Here, we propose a hybrid approach to couple a ML snow distribution pattern (MLSDP) map with a physics-based, snow process model. We trained a random forest ML algorithm on tens of thousands of snow survey observations from a subarctic study area on the Seward Peninsula, Alaska, collected during peak snow water equivalent (SWE). We validated hybrid model outputs using in-situ snow depth and SWE observations, as well as a light detection and ranging data set and a distributed temperature profiling sensor data set. When the hybrid results were compared with the physics-based method, the hybrid method more accurately depicted the spatial patterns of the snowpack, areas of drifting snow, and years when no in-situ observations were used in the random forest ML training data set. The hybrid method also showed improvements in root mean squared error at 61% of locations where time-series estimations of snow depth were observed. These results can be applied to any physics-based model to improve the snow distribution patterning to reflect observed conditions in high latitude and high elevation cold region environments.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

The Advanced Geared Turbofan 30,000 lb f – electrified (AGTF30-e): A Virtual Testbed for Electrified Aircraft Propulsion Research

Electrified Aircraft Propulsion (EAP) is a growing topic of research with the potential to shape the future of commercial air travel. Here, detailed mathematical models serve an essential role in developing understanding and evaluating different technologies and design concepts. The Advanced Geared Turbofan 30,000 lb f – electrified (AGTF30-e) is an open-source software package developed by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA). The AGTF30-e provides a realistic propulsion system model of a conceptual electrified advanced geared turbofan engine suitable for propelling a single-aisle commercial aircraft. Included with the engine model is a controller that provides representative dynamic performance across a full operating envelop. The model is meant to facilitate research studies and promote collaboration. It is envisioned for use in concept exploration studies, technology impact studies, and dynamics and controls studies. The engine model can be run in various modes of operation including boost and power extraction. It also has options for other electrification features and methods for engine shaft and electric machine integration. This paper documents the AGTF30-e and illustrates its use through various simulation scenarios.

AGTF30-e↗

The Advanced Geared Turbofan 30,000 lbf – electrified (AGTF30-e): A Virtual Testbed for Electrified Aircraft Propulsion Research

Electrified Aircraft Propulsion (EAP) is a growing topic of research with the potential to shape the future of commercial air travel. Here, detailed mathematical models serve an essential role in developing understanding and evaluating different technologies and design concepts. The Advanced Geared Turbofan 30,000 lbf – electrified (AGTF30-e) is an open-source software package developed by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA). The AGTF30-e provides a realistic propulsion system model of a conceptual electrified advanced geared turbofan engine suitable for propelling a single-aisle commercial aircraft. Included with the engine model is a controller that provides representative dynamic performance across a full operating envelop. The model is meant to facilitate research studies and promote collaboration. It is envisioned for use in concept exploration studies, technology impact studies, and dynamics and controls studies. The engine model can be run in various modes of operation including boost and power extraction. It also has options for other electrification features and methods for engine shaft and electric machine integration. This paper documents the AGTF30-e and illustrates its use through various simulation scenarios.

AGTF30-e↗

Development of Control System Functional Capabilities within the IES Plug-and-Play Simulation Environment

The concept of an Integrated Energy System (IES) is meant to combine different energy technologies in synergistic ways to achieve a more secure and economical energy supply. The RAVEN-based HYBRID framework is used to find the optimal installed capacity and the optimal economical dispatch of each component of the IES. A new RAVEN (Risk Analysis Virtual ENvironment) plugin for grid and capacity optimization (HERON) has been developed for optimizing the production variables of the IES given the demand profile. Currently, only the limits that affect the production variables and their corresponding time rates of change are considered (explicit constraints). However, other variables are additionally subject to constraints, but the associated limits are not accounted for (implicit constraints). In particular, for the power dispatch problem, the optimization algorithm takes into account the limits on the electrical power output and the corresponding hourly power variations but does not consider other constraints on process variables whose response effects the service life of the IES. This report describes a scheme that allows accounting for implicit constraints without increasing the size of the optimization problem. The Reference Governor (RG) algorithm is traditionally used for enforcing state and control constraints by modifying the set-point trajectories supplied to the feedback regulators. In our application, the RG is coupled within an iterative loop with the HERON-power dispatcher to generate optimal trajectories that ensure the operational constraints are met. A data-driven procedure to derive a representation of the dynamics of the controlled system was developed. First, the variables that represented the state of the system are selected (PCA-based approach), and then state-space representation matrices are derived from the collected measurements (DMDc algorithm). A preliminary version of the developed workflow based on Linear Time Invariant matrices was assessed by adopting a two-unit test case. More sophisticated versions of this workflow foreseeing the on-line derivation of system matrices will be deployed in FY 2021. Finally, a “plug-and-play” library of controllers and state observers was developed in Dymola. Some aspects of the current configuration of the IES unit components, e.g., the encapsulation of the control schemes into dedicated blocks, are consistent with the “plug-and-play” philosophy. Other features, e.g., the system buses collecting the input and the output variables, are not. For this reason, once listed and described the limits of the current configuration, necessary modifications to the plant model interface are presented. As a test-case, the interfaces of the SES model in the RAVEN-based HYBRID framework were reworked accordingly, and two different control schemes were applied to the same plant model.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Southern California Megacity CO2, CH4, and CO Flux Estimates Using Ground- and Space-Based Remote Sensing and a Lagrangian Model

We estimate the overall CO2, CH4, and CO flux from the South Coast Air Basin using an inversion that couples Total Carbon Column Observing Network (TCCON) and Orbiting Carbon Observatory-2 (OCO-2) observations, with the Hybrid Single Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory (HYSPLIT) model and the Open-source Data Inventory for Anthropogenic CO2 (ODIAC). Using TCCON data we estimate the direct net CO2 flux from the So-CAB to be 104±26 Tg CO2 yr(exp -1) for the study period of July 2013–August 2016. We obtain a slightly higher estimate of 120±30 Tg CO2 yr(exp -1) using OCO-2 data. These CO2 emission estimates are on the low end of previous work. Our net CH4 (360±90 Gg CH4 y(exp -1)) flux estimate is in agreement with central values from previous top-down studies going back to 2010 (342–440 Gg CH4 yr(exp -1)). CO emissions are estimated at 487±122 Gg CO yr(exp -1), much lower than previous top-down estimates (1440 Gg CO yr(exp -1)). Given the decreasing emissions of CO, this finding is not unexpected. We perform sensitivity tests to estimate how much errors in the prior, errors in the covariance, different inversion schemes, or a coarser dynamical model influence the emission estimates. Overall, the uncertainty is estimated to be 25%, with the largest contribution from the dynamical model. Lessons learned here may help in future inversions of satellite data over urban areas.

Total Carbon Column Observing Network (TCCON)↗

Resonance ultrasound prediction of residual stress within a hybrid layer for additively manufactured samples

Hybrid additive manufacturing (AM) involves secondary processes or energy sources to alter specified locations within the build volume. Each hybrid step can refine the grain size, increase dislocation density, or modify residual stresses. Typically, the changes in mechanical properties are not confined within a single layer but have a compounding effect on preceding layers. Existing methods of measuring AM residual stress are limited in terms of their sensitivity, or they are destructive measurements. We propose using resonant ultrasound spectroscopy (RUS) to measure the residual stress in hybrid-AM components noninvasively, based on changes to the resonances, compared to a stress-free component. In this paper, we use finite element models to simulate residual stress in hybrid-AM components and to examine the sensitivity of RUS measurements in terms of frequency shifts and mode shapes with respect to single hybrid layers. Then, the RUS results are used to predict stress for a layer at a known location with unknown stress. Here, the approach highlights the capabilities of RUS to address an AM characterization challenge.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Coupling a Lagrangian–Eulerian Spark-Ignition (LESI) model with LES combustion models for engine simulations

In the United States transportation sector, Light-Duty Vehicles (LDVs) are the largest energy consumers and CO 2 emitters. Electrification of LDVs is posed as a potential solution, but SI engines can still contribute to decarbonization. Car manufacturers have turned to unconventional engine operation to increase the efficiency of Spark-Ignition (SI) engines and reduce the carbon emissions of their fleets. Dilute, lean, and stratified-charge engine operation has the potential for engine efficiency improvements at the expense of increased cyclic variability and combustion instability. At such demanding engine conditions, the spark ignition event is key for flame initiation and propagation and for enhanced combustion stability. Reliable and accurate spark ignition models can help design ignition systems that reduce cyclic variability. Multiple computational spark-ignition models exist that perform well under conventional conditions, but the underlying physics needs to be expanded, for unconventional engine operation. In this paper, a hybrid Lagrangian–Eulerian Spark-Ignition (LESI) model is coupled with different turbulent flame propagation models for engine simulations. LESI relies on Lagrangian arc tracking and Eulerian energy deposition. The LESI model is coupled with the Well-Stirred Reactor (WSR), Thickened Flame Model (TFM), and g-equation model and used to simulate several cycles of a Direct-Injection Spark-Ignition (DISI) engine using a commercial Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) engine solver. The results showcase the successful coupling of LESI with the combustion models. Global engine metrics, such as pressure and Apparent Heat Release Rate (AHRR), for each simulation setup are compared to experimental engine results, for validation. In addition, results highlight the successful prediction of spark channel movement by comparing simulation images to experimental optical engine images. Finally, the successful coupling of LESI to combustion models, making it a usable model in the engine modeling community, is emphasized and future development details are discussed.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

Models and Processes to Extract Drug-like Molecules From Natural Language Text

Researchers worldwide are seeking to repurpose existing drugs or discover new drugs to counter the disease caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). A promising source of candidates for such studies is molecules that have been reported in the scientific literature to be drug-like in the context of viral research. However, this literature is too large for human review and features unusual vocabularies for which existing named entity recognition (NER) models are ineffective. We report here on a project that leverages both human and artificial intelligence to detect references to such molecules in free text. We present 1) a iterative model-in-the-loop method that makes judicious use of scarce human expertise in generating training data for a NER model, and 2) the application and evaluation of this method to the problem of identifying drug-like molecules in the COVID-19 Open Research Dataset Challenge (CORD-19) corpus of 198,875 papers. We show that by repeatedly presenting human labelers only with samples for which an evolving NER model is uncertain, our human-machine hybrid pipeline requires only modest amounts of non-expert human labeling time (tens of hours to label 1778 samples) to generate an NER model with an F-1 score of 80.5%—on par with that of non-expert humans—and when applied to CORD’19, identifies 10,912 putative drug-like molecules. This enriched the computational screening team’s targets by 3,591 molecules, of which 18 ranked in the top 0.1% of all 6.6 million molecules screened for docking against the 3CLPro protein.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

A generalized hybrid transfinite element computational approach for nonlinear/linear unified thermal/structural analysis

The present paper describes the development of a new hybrid computational approach for applicability for nonlinear/linear thermal structural analysis. The proposed transfinite element approach is a hybrid scheme as it combines the modeling versatility of contemporary finite elements in conjunction with transform methods and the classical Bubnov-Galerkin schemes. Applicability of the proposed formulations for nonlinear analysis is also developed. Several test cases are presented to include nonlinear/linear unified thermal-stress and thermal-stress wave propagations. Comparative results validate the fundamental capablities of the proposed hybrid transfinite element methodology.

Tamma, Kumar K.↗

Calculation of a simulated 3-D high speed inlet using the Navier-Stokes equations

A hybrid numerical algorithm, developed to solve the full three-dimensional Navier-Stokes equations, is applied to the computation of the flowfield in a simulated three-dimensional high speed aircraft inlet at a Mach number of 2.5 and Reynolds number of 1.4 x 10 to the 7th based on inlet length. The numerical algorithm incorporates a coordinate transformation in order to handle general flow geometries, and utilizes the algebraic turbulent eddy viscosity model of Baldwin and Lomax. The hybrid algorithm has been vectorized on the CDC CYBER 203 computer using the SL/1 vector programming language developed at NASA Langley. The computed results are compared with experimental measurements of the ramp and cowl static pressures, and boundary layer pitot profiles. The results are also compared with a previous two-dimensional Navier-Stokes computation of the same configuration. The agreement with the experimental data is generally good; however, additional improvements in turbulence modeling are needed.

Knight, D. D.↗