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At least 1,405 records · Page 78

Interpreting Primal-Dual Algorithms for Constrained Multiagent Reinforcement Learning

Constrained multiagent reinforcement learning (C-MARL) is gaining importance as MARL algorithms find new applications in real-world systems ranging from energy systems to drone swarms. Most C-MARL algorithms use a primal-dual approach to enforce constraints through a penalty function added to the reward. In this paper, we study the structural effects of this penalty term on the MARL problem. First, we show that the standard practice of using the constraint function as the penalty leads to a weak notion of safety. However, by making simple modifications to the penalty term, we can enforce meaningful probabilistic (chance and conditional value at risk) constraints. Second, we quantify the effect of the penalty term on the value function, uncovering an improved value estimation procedure. We use these insights to propose a constrained multiagent advantage actor critic (C-MAA2C) algorithm. Simulations in a simple constrained multiagent environment affirm that our reinterpretation of the primal-dual method in terms of probabilistic constraints is effective, and that our proposed value estimate accelerates convergence to a safe joint policy.

chance constraints↗

Waste Estimation from a Wide-Area Radiological Incident: The Impact of Geography and Urban Footprint - 16256

In the planning and preparedness stages for a response to a radiological incident, it is important to include waste management considerations when developing the decontamination/demolition/cleanup approach because waste management can be a driver for time and cost for return to normalcy. Waste management is also inextricably linked to the geography and urban footprint of the impacted area. The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's (EPA's) Waste Estimation Support Tool (WEST) is a novel application based on the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) Hazus-MH software. WEST enables users to estimate the characteristics, amount, and residual radioactivity of waste generated from remediation and cleanup activities after a radiological incident, including incidents caused by radiological dispersal devices and improvised nuclear devices, as well as nuclear power plant accidents. These waste estimates are generated as a function of user-defined decontamination strategies and are specific to a geographic location. This paper will describe the recently released version 3 update to WEST, and how differences in geography and urban footprints can impact the waste that is generated. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Comparative critical mass calculations for NNL and ENDF/B-VIII.0 - Zirconium hydride thermal neutron scattering laws

Zirconium hydride (ZrH{sub x}) is a moderator material for TRIGA reactors and historical space reactor systems, such as SNAP-10A. Thermal neutron scattering laws (TSL) for two phases of this material, δ and ε, have been previously evaluated by Naval Nuclear Laboratory (NNL) and submitted to the National Nuclear Data Center (NNDC) for inclusion in the US national ENDF/B-VIII.1 nuclear data library. In contrast to the current ENDF/B-VIII.0 TSL evaluations, which consider only a single phase, the new evaluations are derived from separate ab initio calculations for both phases and include coherent elastic effects of the zirconium sublattice. To estimate the impact of these changes to the TSL evaluation of this material, comparative critical mass calculations were performed with MC21 for homogenous mixtures of high-enriched uranium (HEU) and ZrH{sub x} in bare and water reflected sphere configurations. These calculations yield an impact on the estimated critical mass as a function of {sup 235}U loading density with maximum differences as large as 1% - 5% for over-moderated thermal spectrum systems. Consequently, the NNL TSL evaluations are anticipated to have a small impact on criticality calculations of thermal reactor systems regardless of the material phase. Nevertheless, characteristic differences exist in the predicted thermal spectra as function of energy for the two sets of TSL evaluations, which are attributed to difference in the underlying phonon density of states of hydrogen bound in ZrH{sub x}. (authors)

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Computing the Critical Temperature of the Affine-Transformed $D=3$ Ising Model Using Masked Autoregressive Flow

The simple Ising model provides a rich environment to build and study lattice field theories. As part of an ongoing project to construct a conformal field theory (CFT) on an arbitrarily curved manifold, in this work we develop methods to measure the critical temperature $β_c$ of the affine-transformed Ising model on the face-centered cubic (FCC) lattice. The main challenge in this endeavor is finding a computationally efficient and accurate method of interpolating and extrapolating Monte Carlo observables with respect to coupling coefficients and temperature. Herein, we compare two such methods. A traditional statistical approach uses the multiple histogram (MH) method, while a newer machine learning approach uses a masked autoregressive flow (MAF) to estimate the underlying probability density function of a set of observables. While the MH method is specifically designed to interpolate and extrapolate Monte Carlo observables, we find that MAF is a viable alternative for measuring $β_c$ with a computational cost that scales more favorably. Furthermore, we comment on additional advantages of MAF relevant to our work, such as extrapolating in system volume.

Svenson, Kai [Texas U.]↗

STELLAR MASS VERSUS STELLAR VELOCITY DISPERSION: WHICH IS BETTER FOR LINKING GALAXIES TO THEIR DARK MATTER HALOS?

It was recently suggested that compared to its stellar mass (M{sub *}), the central stellar velocity dispersion ({sigma}{sub *}) of a galaxy might be a better indicator for its host dark matter halo mass. Here we test this hypothesis by estimating the dark matter halo mass for central galaxies in groups as a function of M{sub *} and {sigma}{sub *}. For this we have estimated the redshift-space cross-correlation function (CCF) between the central galaxies at given M{sub *} and {sigma}{sub *} and a reference galaxy sample, from which we determine both the projected CCF, w{sub p} (r{sub p} ), and the velocity dispersion profile. A halo mass is then obtained from the average velocity dispersion within the virial radius. At fixed M{sub *}, we find very weak or no correlation between halo mass and {sigma}{sub *}. In contrast, strong mass dependence is clearly seen even when {sigma}{sub *} is limited to a narrow range. Our results thus firmly demonstrate that the stellar mass of central galaxies is still a good (if not the best) indicator for dark matter halo mass, better than the stellar velocity dispersion. The dependence of galaxy clustering on {sigma}{sub *} at fixed M{sub *}, as recently discovered by Wake et al., may be attributed to satellite galaxies, for which the tidal stripping occurring within halos has stronger effect on stellar mass than on central stellar velocity dispersion.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

A new estimate of the China temperature anomaly series and uncertainty assessment in 1900–2006

While global warming during the last century has been well recognized, the magnitude of the climate warming in regions such as China over the past 100 years still has some uncertainty due to limited observations during the early years. Several series of temperature anomalies for the 20th century in China have been independently developed by different groups. The uncertainty arises mainly from the sparse observations before 1950, where statistics are sensitive to the small and potentially biased sample. In this study, BSHADE–MSN (Biased Sentinel Hospitals Areal Disease Estimation and Means of Stratified Nonhomogeneous Surface), a combination of two novel distinct statistical methods that are applicable with different sample situations to a spatial heterogeneous surface, is applied to estimate annual mean temperature anomalies for China. This method takes into account prior knowledge of geographical spatial autocorrelation and nonhomogeneity of target domains, remedies the biased sample, and maximizes an objective function for the best linear unbiased estimation (BLUE) of the regional mean quantity. For the period 1900–1999, the overall trend estimated by BSHADE–MSN is 0.80°C with a 95% confidential interval between 0.41°C and 1.18°C. This is significantly lower than that calculated by Climate Anomaly Method (CAM) and Block Kriging. The new temperature anomaly series for China exhibits slightly warmer conditions for the period before 1950 than existing studies. All the methods applied so far agree well with each other for the period after 1950, when there are sufficient stations across the country for the estimation of temperature anomaly series. Cross validation shows that the new regional mean temperature anomaly series has smaller estimation error variance and higher accuracy than those based on the other methods assessed in this study.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Modeling golden eagle‐vehicle collisions to design mitigation strategies

ABSTRACT The incidental take of golden eagles ( Aquila chrysaetos ) as a result of wind energy development requires some form of compensatory mitigation. Although several options have been proposed, only one has been formerly accepted and implemented, and the lack of options can limit the permit process for wind facilities. We developed a model to estimate numbers of golden eagles that die when struck by vehicles when eagles scavenge road kill to evaluate removal of road‐killed carcasses as an additional mitigation option. Our model estimates vehicle collision rates as a function of eagle densities, road traffic volume, and animal carcass abundance at the scale of a Wyoming, USA, county during fall‐winter, and quantifies the effects of different mitigation strategies, including estimates of uncertainty. We evaluated the plausibility of our model estimates by predicting mortality rates for each county in Wyoming and comparing overall state mortality to current estimates of mortality using derived estimates from expert judgment. We also developed a context‐dependent analysis of potential mitigation credits controlling for carcass number, traffic volume, and background carcass removals. We found that mitigation credit should be highest in areas with greatest number of carcasses. Collision mitigation is a potentially useful addition to the mitigation toolbox for wind energy development or other activities that need to offset predicted golden eagle mortality and satisfy incidental take permit requirements. © 2018 The Authors. Journal of Wildlife Management Published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Lonsdorf, Eric↗

A Novel Data-based Stochastic Distribution Control for Non-Gaussian Stochastic Systems

In this note, we present a novel data-based approach to investigate the non-Gaussian stochastic distribution control problem. As the motivation of this note, the existing methods have been summarised regarding to the drawbacks, for example, neural network weights training for unknown stochastic distribution and so on. To overcome these disadvantages, a new transformation for dynamic probability density function is given by kernel density estimation using interpolation. Based upon this transformation, a representative model has been developed while the stochastic distribution control problem has been transformed into an optimisation problem. Then, data-based direct optimisation and identification-based indirect optimisation have been proposed. In addition, the convergences of the presented algorithms are analysed and the effectiveness of these algorithms has been evaluated by numerical examples. In summary, the contributions of this note are as follows: 1) a new data-based probability density function transformation is given; 2) the optimisation algorithms are given based on the presented model; and 3) a new research framework is demonstrated as the potential extensions to the existing stochastic distribution control.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Assurance of Model-Based Fault Diagnosis

Autonomy is an increasingly important technology for robotic scientific and commercial spacecraft. An important motivation for developing onboard autonomy is to enable quick response to dynamic environment and situations, including fault conditions that a spacecraft may encounter. The reliability of such autonomous capabilities depends on the quality of their knowledge of a spacecraft’s health state. Model-based approaches to fault management, i.e. model-based fault diagnosis (MBFD), is one approach to continuously verify correct behavior in addition to diagnosing symptoms to estimate the spacecraft’s health state. The proper functioning of MBFD is dependent on 1) the quality of the model that is analyzed and compared to the outputs of onboard sensors to estimate the system’s health state, and 2) the correct functioning of the diagnosis engine that interrogates the model and compares its analysis to observed system behavior. We are currently developing Verification and Validation (V&V) approaches to provide the necessary confidence that MBFD systems are correctly estimating the health of on-board spacecraft components and systems. Our work is intended to narrow the gap between the rapidly maturing field of ModelBased System Engineering (including MBFD) and the less-well understood area of identifying and applying appropriate V&V techniques to MBFD. Our effort is investigating three areas: 1) developing V&V techniques for the diagnostic model, 2) developing V&V techniques for the diagnostic engine in isolation, and 3) developing V&V techniques for the diagnostic engine and model in combination. This paper describes the work we have completed in the first area. We describe our approach to selecting a system to be represented by a model, the approach to modeling the system, the verification approach we developed for the model, and the results of the verification activity. We conclude with a description of the work remaining in the last two areas, which will be addressed over the next two years.

Chung, Seung↗

Software defined network inference with evolutionary optimal observation matrices

A key requirement for network management is the accurate and reliable monitoring of relevant network characteristics. In today's large-scale networks, this is a challenging task due to the scarcity of network measurement resources and the hard constraints that this imposes. Here, this paper proposes a new framework, called SNIPER, which leverages the flexibility provided by Software-Defined Networking (SDN) to design the optimal observation or measurement matrix that can lead to the best achievable estimation accuracy using Matrix Completion (MC) techniques. To cope with the complexity of designing large-scale optimal observation matrices, we use the Evolutionary Optimization Algorithms (EOA) which directly target the ultimate estimation accuracy as the optimization objective function. We evaluate the performance of SNIPER using both synthetic and real network measurement traces from different network topologies and by considering two main applications for per-flow size and delay estimations. Our results show that SNIPER can be applied to a variety of network performance measurements under hard resource constraints. For example, by measuring only 8.8% of all per-flow path delays in Harvard network [1], congested paths can be detected with probability of 0.94. Finally, to demonstrate the feasibility of our framework, we also have implemented a prototype of SNIPER in Mininet.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Influence of the atmosphere on spectral radiance and contrasts of natural formations measured from space

The method of transfer functions is discussed that enable the elimination of atmospheric effects from spectral photometric data measured from spacecraft. Soyuz 7, 9 and Salyut spacecraft data were used. The results made it possible to estimate the variations in the transfer functions in the visible spectral region depending on the albedo of the underlying surface both for the uniform surfaces and near the boundary between two uniform underlying surfaces.

Kondratyev, K. Y.↗

Estimates of the Venus atmosphere optical characteristics with application to the problem of photographing its clouds and surface

Optical parameters investigated and solved for included: (1) cloud layer albedo and cloud cover optical thickness; (2) planetary surface self-radiation influence; (3) light flux distribution as function of atmospheric height; (4) upper estimate of the observed contrasts; (5) surface optical parameters; and (6) contrast decrease with altitude.

Biryukov, Y. L.↗

Effect of atmospheric extinction on laser rangefinder performance at 1.54 and 0.6 microns

Extinction of laser rangefinder (LRF) pulses by the atmosphere depends on the wavelength, weather conditions, and aerosol concentration along the optical path. In the IR, extinction is due to absorption by molecular constituents and scattering and absorption by aerosols. The total atmospheric extinction alpha(lambda) is the sum of the molecular and aerosol contributions, alpha(sub m)(lambda)and Alpha(sub a)(lambda). We present simple expressions for alpha(sub m)(lambda) and alpha(sub a)(lambda) for two LRF sources: Er:glass and CO2 which operate at 1.54 and 10.6 microns, respectively. The expressions are based on accepted models of atmospheric aerosols and molecular extinction and give an estimate of alpha(lambda) as a function of standard meteorological parameters, assuming horizontal beam propagation. Signal-to-noise ratios of LRF returns, measured from a reference target under different weather conditions are compared to predictions based on the estimate of alpha(lambda).

Hutt, D. L.↗

Asymmetrical effects of mesophyll conductance on fundamental photosynthetic parameters and their relationships estimated from leaf gas exchange measurements

Worldwide measurements of nearly 130 C3 species covering all major plant functional types are analyzed in conjunction with model simulations to determine the effects of mesophyll conductance (gm) on photosynthetic parameters and their relationships estimated from A/Ci curves. We find that an assumption of infinite gm results in up to 75% underestimation for maximum carboxylation rate Vcmax, 60% for maximum electron transport rate Jmax, and 40% for triose phosphate utilization rate Tu. Vcmax is most sensitive, Jmax is less sensitive, and Tu has the least sensitivity to the variation of gm. Due to this asymmetrical effect of gm, the ratios of Jmax to Vcmax, Tu to Vcmax, and Tu to Jmax are all overestimated. An infinite gm assumption also limits the freedom of variation of estimated parameters and artificially constrains parameter relationships to stronger shapes. These findings suggest the importance of quantifying gm for understanding in-situ photosynthetic machinery functioning. We show that a nonzero resistance to CO2 movement in chloroplasts has small effects on estimated parameters. A nonlinear function with gm as input is developed to convert the parameters estimated under an assumption of infinite gm to proper values. This function will facilitate gm representation in global carbon cycle models.

Sun, Ying↗

Comparison of 2- and 10-micron coherent Doppler lidar performance

The performance of 2- and 10-micron coherent Doppler lidar is presented in terms of the statistical distribution of the maximum-likelihood velocity estimator from simulations for fixed range resolution and fixed velocity search space as a function of the number of coherent photoelectrons per estimate. The wavelength dependence of the aerosol backscatter coefficient, the detector quantum efficiency, and the atmospheric extinction produce a simple shift of the performance curves. Results are presented for a typical boundary layer measurement and a space-based measurement for two regimes: the pulse-dominated regime where the signal statistics are determined by the transmitted pulse, and the atmospheric-dominated regime where the signal statistics are determined by the velocity fluctuations over the range gate. The optimal choice of wavelength depends on the problem under consideration.

Frehlich, Rod↗

A water-vapor radiometer error model

The water-vapor radiometer (WVR) is used to calibrate unpredictable delays in the wet component of the troposphere in geodetic microwave techniques such as very-long-baseline interferometry (VLBI) and Global Positioning System (GPS) tracking. Based on experience with Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) instruments, the current level of accuracy in wet-troposphere calibration limits the accuracy of local vertical measurements to 5-10 cm. The goal for the near future is 1-3 cm. Although the WVR is currently the best calibration method, many instruments are prone to systematic error. In this paper, a treatment of WVR data is proposed and evaluated. This treatment reduces the effect of WVR systematic errors by estimating parameters that specify an assumed functional form for the error. The assumed form of the treatment is evaluated by comparing the results of two similar WVR's operating near each other. Finally, the observability of the error parameters is estimated by covariance analysis.

Beckman, B.↗

Probing the z > 6 universe with the first Hubble frontier fields cluster A2744

The Hubble Frontier Fields program combines the capabilities of the Hubble Space Telescope (HST) with the gravitational lensing of massive galaxy clusters to probe the distant universe to an unprecedented depth. Here, we present the results of the first combined HST and Spitzer observations of the cluster A-2744. We combine the full near-infrared data with ancillary optical images to search for gravitationally lensed high-redshift (z ≳ 6) galaxies. We report the detection of 15 I {sub 814} dropout candidates at z ∼ 6-7 and one Y {sub 105} dropout at z ∼ 8 in a total survey area of 1.43 arcmin{sup 2} in the source plane. The predictions of our lens model also allow us to identify five multiply imaged systems lying at redshifts between z ∼ 6 and z ∼ 8. Thanks to constraints from the mass distribution in the cluster, we were able to estimate the effective survey volume corrected for completeness and magnification effects. This was in turn used to estimate the rest-frame ultraviolet luminosity function (LF) at z ∼ 6-8. Our LF results are generally in agreement with the most recent blank field estimates, confirming the feasibility of surveys through lensing clusters. Although based on a shallower observations than what will be achieved in the final data set including the full Advanced Camera for Survey observations, the LF presented here goes down to M {sub UV} ∼–18.5, corresponding to 0.2L {sup *} at z ∼ 7 with one identified object at M {sub UV} ∼–15 thanks to the highly magnified survey areas. This early study forecasts the power of using massive galaxy clusters as cosmic telescopes and its complementarity to blank fields.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

The equation of state for stellar envelopes. I - An occupation probability formalism for the truncation of internal partition functions

An equation of state for material in stellar envelopes, subject to the limits of temperature less than about 10 to the 7th K and density less than about .01 g/cu cm is presented. The equation makes it possible to express free energy as the sum of several terms representing effects such as partial degeneracy of the electron, Coulomb interactions among charged particles, finite-volume, hard sphere repulsion, and van der Waals attraction. An occupation probability formalism is used to represent the effects of the plasma in establishing a finite partition function. It is shown that the use of the static screened Coulomb potential to calculate level shifts and to estimate the cutoff of the internal partition function is invalid. For most of the parameter space relevant to stellar envelopes, perturbations arising from the plasma ions are shown to be dominant in establishing the internal partition function.

Hummer, D. G.↗