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NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Estimation of Permanent Magnet Synchronous Motor Parameters using a Linear Unknown Input Interval Observer

This paper develops and evaluate a technique to estimate the speed and unknown load torque of a permanent magnet synchronous motor (PMSM). An interval unknown input observer (UIO) for linear time-invariant (LTI) systems is designed and utilized to estimate the PMSM parameters. Interval UIOs are advantageous as they allow for the estimation of both states and unknown inputs, while accounting for varying uncertainty sources, such as model and measurement uncertainties inherent in dynamic systems and processes. First, the nonlinear PMSM model is linearized to transform it to a suitable form for application of the linear interval UIO. Then, the interval UIO is applied to jointly estimate the motor speed and the unknown load torque disturbance. Assuming that the measurement noise and disturbances are bounded, lower and upper bounds are first computed for the unmeasured state (motor speed) and then for the unknown input (load torque). The proposed approach and its limitations are demonstrated for the nonlinear PMSM model derived from its equivalent electrical circuit.

Elinirina I Robinson↗

NASA NTRS2021

Constraining the Neutron Star Mass–Radius Relation and Dense Matter Equation of State with NICER. III. Model Description and Verification of Parameter Estimation Codes

We describe the X-ray pulse profile models we use and how we use them to analyze Neutron Star Interior Composition Explorer(NICER)observations of rotation-powered millisecond pulsars to obtain information about the mass–radius relation of neutron stars and the equation of state of the dense matter in their cores. Here we detail our modeling of the observed profile of PSR J0030+0451 that we analyzed in Miller et al. and Riley et al. and describe a cross-verification of computations of the pulse profiles of a star with R/M 3, in case stars this compact need to be considered in future analyses. We also present our early cross-verification efforts of the parameter estimation procedures used by Miller et al. and Riley et al. by analyzing two distinct synthetic data sets. Both codes yielded credible regions in the mass–radius plane that are statistically consistent with one another, and both gave posterior distributions for model parameter values consistent with the values that were used to generate the data. We also summarize the additional tests of the parameter estimation procedure of Miller et al. that used synthetic pulse profiles and the NICER pulse profile of PSR J0030+0451. We then illustrate how the precision of mass and radius estimates depends on the pulsar’s spin rate and the size of its hot spot by analyzing four different synthetic pulse profiles. Finally, we assess possible sources of systematic error in the estimates made using this technique, some of which may warrant further investigation.

Slavko Bogdanov↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Estimation of Timing Performance with Pulsed Laser Links for Small Satellite PNT

Satellite constellations are growing in size and in utility for applications as diverse as providing reliable, low-latency internet service to rural areas orEarth science missions.This expansion of satellite constellations brings attention to the need for responsive and reliable satellite communication.Current research in the PrecisionSpace Systems Laboratory at the University of Florida focuses on using pulsed laser communications as the method of relaying time signals instead of the radio frequency (RF)signals.The upcoming CLICK (CubeSat Laser Infrared CrosslinK) missions (Massachusetts Institute of Technology, University of Florida, NASA Ames Research Center) will demonstrate a spacecraft-to-spacecraft laser communication link and time-transfer.For pre-flight technology assessment of missions such as CLICK, a simulation of a spacecraft constellation in Earth orbit has been created to estimate clock synchronization and precision orbit determination based on measured instrumentation performance.We have developed a novel MATLAB-based numerical simulator to model spacecraft-to-spacecraft laser time-transfer and estimate the offset between the spacecraft clocks over time.This simulation includes timing errors associated with laser pulse generation and detection, as well as non-Gaussian clock drift models.The two on-board clocks modeled are a cesium-based Chip-Scale Atomic Clock (CSAC) and a rubidium-based Miniature Atomic Clock (MAC), both produced by Microchip.An example case of two spacecraft in a circular, low-Earth orbit receiving GPS position, GPS timing, and laser pulse time-of-flight measurements is simulated.The positions and velocities of the two spacecraft at a reference epoch and the constant clock model coefficients are estimated.Polynomial models of different orders were used as clock models. The effect of clock model order on the root-mean-square (RMS) of the clock error is apparent in the case using GPS and lasing measurements, showing that the clock model improves with increasing clock model order. Results compare the estimated clock model of a mission operation that only uses GPS measurements and a mission operation that uses both GPS and laser pulse time-of-flight measurements between spacecraft referenced to their on-board CSACs or on-board MACs. Including lasing measurements reduces the RMS clock model error by approximately 80% of the RMS of the cases with only GPS measurements.This simulation tool can be used to optimize the lasing operations schedule based on mission timing performance objectives. During this presentation, I will discuss the details of the simulation and clock model estimation, as well as discuss the results.I will compare the results of incorporating lasing timing measurements to using only GPS measurements and the outcomes of using different orders of polynomials.

Timing Performance↗

NASA NTRS2020

Assistive Relative Pose Estimation for On-orbit Assembly using Convolutional Neural Networks

Accurate real-time pose estimation of spacecraft or object in space is a key capability necessary for on orbit spacecraft servicing and assembly tasks. Pose estimation of objects in space is more challenging than for objects on Earth due to space images containing widely varying illumination conditions, high contrast, and poor resolution in addition to power and mass constraints. In this paper, a convolutional neural network is leveraged to uniquely determine the translation and rotation of an object of interest relative to the camera. The main idea of using CNN model is to assist object tracker used in on space assembly tasks where only feature based method is always not sufficient. The simulation framework designed for assembly task is used to generate dataset for training the modified CNN models and, then results of different models are compared with measure of how accurately models are predicting the pose. Unlike many current approaches for spacecraft or object in space pose estimation, the model does not rely on hand-crafted object-specific features which makes this model more robust and easier to apply to other types of spacecraft. It is shown that the model performs comparable to the current feature-selection methods and can therefore be used in conjunction with them to provide more reliable estimates.

Sonawani, Shubham↗

NASA NTRS2020

Improved State Estimation in Distorted Magnetic Fields

The magnetic field of the Earth – besides varying naturally – may be disturbed locally by the (man-made) environment. State estimation and corresponding navigation frameworks that use magnetometers on-board of mobile platforms suffer from severe performance loss or failure upon local magnetic distortions if these are not detected and mitigated adequately. Advanced estimators include the magnetic variation in the state vector. However, Cartesian coordinates, although widely used in the literature, suffer from observability issues when it comes to disturbance detection. This paper shows the importance of representing the magnetic variation in a spherical coordinate system and subsequent improvements with respect to the common representation in Cartesian coordinates. The spherical representation improves estimator consistency and allows for accurate and fast mitigation of magnetic disturbances through consistent statistical tests which leads to better system state estimates in magnetically distorted areas. The approach is validated by performing tests with simulated and real-world data on embedded hardware.

Brommer, Christian↗

NASA NTRS2021

Online NASA Software Estimating Tools (ONSET): A Suite of Web-Based Cost Analysis Tools

This paper provides an overview of ONSET theOnline NASA Software Estimating Tools suite of web-basedcosts analysis tools. ONSET is comprised of the AnalogySoftware Cost Tool (ASCoT) [1], and the CubeSat Or MicrosatProbabilistic and Analogies Cost Tool (COMPACT) [2]. TheOnline NASA Space Estimation Tool (ONSET) has beendeveloped to provide a standardized platform for hosting webbasedNASA cost estimation tools on NASA ONCE (OneNASA Cost Engineering). It evolved from the BETA version ofASCoT (The NASA Analogy Software Cost Tool) which wasreleased in 2017 and was presented at the 2017 IEEEAerospace Conference. This first release of ONSET contains anew version of ASCoT as well as the first official release ofCOMPACT (CubeSat Or Microsat Probabilistic + AnalogiesCost Tool). In this paper we will provide an overview ofONSET, all its features and a high-level summary of bothASCoT and COMPACT. The heart of both tools arealgorithms for analogy-based estimation based on system levelinputs.

Johnson, James↗

NASA NTRS2021

A Critical Look at Coulomb Counting Approach for State of Charge Estimation in Batteries

In this paper, we consider the problem of state-of-charge estimation for rechargeable batteries. Coulomb counting is a well-known method for estimating the state of charge, and it is regarded as accurate as long as the battery capacity and the beginning state of charge are known. The Coulomb counting approach, on the other hand, is prone to inaccuracies from a variety of sources, and the magnitude of these errors has not been explored in the literature. We formally construct and quantify the state-of-charge estimate error during Coulomb counting due to four types of error sources: (1) current measurement error; (2) current integration approximation error; (3) battery capacity uncertainty; and (4) timing oscillator error/drift. It is demonstrated that the state-of-charge error produced can be either time-cumulative or state-of-charge-proportional. Time-cumulative errors accumulate over time and have the potential to render the state-of-charge estimation utterly invalid in the long term. The proportional errors of the state of charge rise with the accumulated state of charge and reach their worst value within one charge/discharge cycle. The study presents methods for reducing time-cumulative and state-of-charge-proportional mistakes through simulation analysis.

Battery management system↗

NASA NTRS2022

Optimal Estimation Framework for Ocean Color Atmospheric Correction and Pixel-level Uncertainty Quantification

Ocean color remote sensing requires compensation for atmospheric scattering and absorption (aerosol, Rayleigh, and trace gases), referred to as atmospheric correction (AC). AC allows inference of parameters such as spectrally resolved remote sensing reflectance ( R rs )(λ) ; sr 1 ) at the ocean surface from the top-of-atmosphere reflectance. Often, the uncertainty of this process is not fully explored. Bayesian inference techniques provide a simultaneous AC and uncertainty assessment via a full posterior distribution of the relevant variables, given the prior distribution of those variables and the radiative transfer (RT) likelihood function. Given uncertainties in the algorithm inputs, the Bayesian framework enables better constraints on the AC process by using the complete spectral information compared to traditional approaches that use only a subset of bands for AC. This paper investigates a Bayesian inference research method (Optimal Estimation, OE) for ocean color AC by simultaneously retrieving atmospheric and ocean properties using all visible and near-infrared spectral bands. The OE algorithm analytically approximates the posterior distribution of parameters based on normality assumptions and provides a potentially viable operational algorithm with a reduced computational expense. We developed a Neural Network (NN) RT forward model look-up-table-based emulator to increase algorithm efficiency further and thus speed up the likelihood computations. We then applied the OE algorithm to synthetic data and observations from the MODerate resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on NASA’s Aqua spacecraft. We compared the R rs )(λ) retrieval and its uncertainty estimates from the OE method with in-situ validation data from the SeaWiFS Bio-optical Archive and Storage System (SeaBASS) and Aerosol Robotic Network Ocean Color (AERONET-OC) datasets. The OE algorithm improved R rs )(λ) estimates relative to the NASA standard operational algorithm by improving all statistical metrics at 443, 555, and 667 nm. Unphysical negative R rs )(λ) , which often appear in complex water conditions, was reduced by a factor of 3. The OE-derived pixel-level R rs )(λ) uncertainty estimates were also assessed relative to in-situ data and were shown to have skill.

Atmospheric correction↗

NASA NTRS2022

Estimating Emissions of Methane Consistent with Atmospheric Measurements of Methane and δC-13 of Methane

We have constructed an atmospheric inversion framework based on TM5-4DVAR to jointly assimilate measurements of methane and δC-13 of methane in order to estimate source-specific methane emissions. Here we present global emission estimates from this framework for the period 1999–2016. We assimilate a newly constructed, multi-agency database of CH4 and δC-13 measurements. We find that traditional CH4-only atmospheric inversions are unlikely to estimate emissions consistent with atmospheric δC-13 data and assimilating δC-13 data is necessary to derive emissions consistent with both measurements. Our framework attributes ca. 85% of the post-2007 growth in atmospheric methane to microbial sources, with about half of that coming from the tropics between 23.5° N and 23.5° S. This contradicts the attribution of the recent growth in the methane budget of the Global Carbon Project (GCP). We find that the GCP attribution is only consistent with our top-down estimate in the absence of δC-13 data. We find that at global and continental scales, δC-13 data can separate microbial from fossil methane emissions much better than CH4 data alone, and at smaller scales this ability is limited by the current δC-13 measurement coverage. Finally, we find that the largest uncertainty in using δC-13 data to separate different methane source types comes from our knowledge of atmospheric chemistry, specifically the distribution of tropospheric chlorine and the isotopic discrimination of the methane sink.

Methane↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Maneuver Reconstruction, Tracking Scheduling, and Bias Estimation in the Near Rectilinear Halo Orbit (NRHO)

NASA’s Gateway program will build a crew-tended station in an Earth-Moon Near Rectilinear Halo Orbit (NRHO) to support deep space missions to the lunar surface and heliocentric space. The station in the NRHO will be tracked by the Deep Space Network (DSN) with 2-way radiometric tracking data to produce an estimated state that is utilized to target Orbit Maintenance Maneuvers (OMMs). However, the tracking data is corrupted with measurement noise and range bias, which results in state estimation error and OMM execution error. This paper reports on analysis performed to improve the geometry of the tracking data problem with the inclusion of cross-hemispheric partner sites and explores the performance impact of handovers between partner sites and DSN sites. The OMM execution error is estimated directly using a Batch Least Squares (BLS) process, and the range bias estimation is analyzed among both original DSN sites and a combined DSN + partner sites scenario.

Clark P Newman↗

NASA NTRS2023

A Framework for Estimating Global River Discharge From the Surface Water and Ocean Topography Satellite Mission

The Surface Water and Ocean Topography (SWOT) mission will vastly expand measurements of global rivers, providing critical new data sets for both gaged and ungaged basins. SWOT discharge products (available approximately 1 year after launch) will provide discharge for all river that reaches wider than 100 m. In this paper, we describe how SWOT discharge produced and archived by the US and French space agencies will be computed from measurements of river water surface elevation, width, and slope and ancillary data, along with expected discharge accuracy. We present for the first time a complete estimate of the SWOT discharge uncertainty budget, with separate terms for random (standard error) and systematic (bias) uncertainty components in river discharge time series. We expect that discharge uncertainty will be less than 30% for two-thirds of global reaches and will be dominated by bias. Separate river discharge estimates will combine both SWOT and in situ data; these “gage-constrained” discharge estimates can be expected to have lower systematic uncertainty. Temporal variations in river discharge time series will be dominated by random error and are expected to be estimated within 15% for nearly all reaches, allowing accurate inference of event flow dynamics globally, including in ungaged basins. We believe this level of accuracy lays the groundwork for SWOT to enable breakthroughs in global hydrologic science.

Michael Durand↗

NASA NTRS2022

Bayesian Rules of Thumb: Robust Uncertainty Quantification in Early Project Cost Estimation

Systems engineers often make use of cost Rules ofThumb in order to estimate cost during early phases of projectformulation. These Rules of Thumb typically take the form ofa sequence of percentages over which a total cost is allocatedacross NASA WBS elements. Rules of Thumb can then be usedto extrapolate cost from one or more known WBS elements tothe remaining unknown WBS elements, assisting early projectformulation architecture studies (such as those in JPL’s Team Xand A Team).A number of issues can arise when generating and using costRules of Thumb. For example, many records of project costsconsist of incomplete data. Typical methods of dealing withincomplete cost allocation data include (a) ignoring missionswith incomplete data, or (b) taking averages of the non-zero percentagesacross missions, but both of these methods can result inbiased estimates if the existence of incomplete data correlateswith total mission cost or any particular WBS element. Anothercommon example is cost reported in one or more incorrect WBSelements. This is especially prevalent in smaller missions whereit is more common for engineers to perform tasks that fall underthe purview of multiple WBS elements.Furthermore, a Rule of Thumb estimate is typically reported asa point estimate; there is no reported uncertainty around thepercentages used to generate an allocation. Even in the rarecase in which confidence intervals around mean percentages areprovided, there may be positive or negative correlations betweenWBS elements which can skew estimates.Here we attempt to address these problems by formulatingprobabilistic Rules of Thumb in which a distribution of allocationschemes, rather than a single allocation scheme, is generated.We use a bootstrap imputation method to simultaneouslyaccount for uncertainty in the missing data while using allavailable information contained in the dataset. The imputeddatasets are then input into a multivariate Bayesian modelwhich accounts for correlations between WBS elements andproperly accounts for uncertainty in the final Rule of Thumbpercentages and predictions. We describe the mathematicalmodel and provides snippets of R code utilizing the brms(Bayesian Regression Models using Stan) package. To illustratethis model, we generate a Bayesian Level 2 WBS Cost Rule ofThumb for MIDEX (Medium-Class Explorers) missions withdata extracted from NASA’s CADRe. We then compare thismethod’s performance with the classical Rule of Thumb method.

Hooke, Melissa A↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Ensemble Forecasting/Assimilation/Emissions Estimation with WRF-Chem/DART: Accomplishments, Lessons Learned, and Future Plans

Over the past ten years, we have been conducting research on regional ensemble atmospheric composition forecasting/data assimilation/emissions estimation with WRF-Chem/DART. WRF- Chem/DART integrates the Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF) with online chemistry (WRF-Chem) into the Data Assimilation Research Testbed (DART). DART is an ensemble data assimilation system based on the ensemble adjustment Kalman filter (EAKF) with adaptive inflation, localization (physical and state space), and an optional non-Gaussian formulation of the EAKF. DART includes assimilation of meteorological and limited chemical observations. WRF-Chem/DART extends DART to include assimilation of: MOPITT CO; IASI CO and O3; MODIS AOD; OMI O3, NO2, and SO2; TROPOMI CO, O3, NO2, and SO2, TES CO, CO2 (research mode), O3, NH3, and CH4 (research mode); CrIS CO, O3, NH3, CH4 (research mode), and PAN; SCIAMACHY NO2; GOME2a NO2; MLS O3 and HNO3; and proxy TEMPO O3, and NO2 satellite retrievals as raw retrievals or as ‘compact phase space retrievals’ (CPSRs) for profile retrievals. WRF-Chem/DART also assimilates in situ atmospheric composition measurements and uses the ‘state augmentation method’ for emissions estimation. In our presentation, we will provide an overview of WRF-Chem/DART: • applications and results; • lessons learned from: (i) independent versus joint assimilation; (ii) total/partial column versus profile retrieval assimilation; (iii) joint in situ and retrieval assimilation; (iv) assimilation at grid resolutions ranging from 100 km to 4 km; (v) dynamic emissions estimation; and • future work related to wildfire emissions estimation and intercomparison of CMAQ (online)/JEDI and CMAQ (online and offline)/DART.

WRF-Chem/DART↗

NASA NTRS2023

Understanding Volume Estimation Uncertainty of Lakes and Wetlands Using Satellites and Citizen Science

We studied variations in the volume of water stored in small lakes and wetlands using satellite remote sensing and lake water height data contributed by citizen scientists. A total of 94 water bodies across the globe were studied using satellite data in the optical and microwave wavelengths from Landsat 8, Sentinel-1, and Sentinel-2. The uncertainty in volume estimation as a function of geography and geophysical factors, such as cloud cover, precipitation, and water surface temperature, was studied. The key finding that emerged from this global study is that uncertainty is highest in regions with a distinct precipitation season, such as in the monsoon dominated South Asia or the Pacific Northwestern region of the USA. This uncertainty is further compounded when small lakes and wetlands are seasonal with alternating land use as a water body and agricultural land, such as the wetlands of Northeastern Bangladesh. On an average, 45% of studied lakes could be estimated of their volume change with a statistical significant uncertainty that is less than the expected volume in South Asia. In North America, this statistically significant uncertainty in volume estimation was found to be around 50% in lakes eastward of the 108th meridian with lowest uncertainty found in lakes along the East coast of the USA. The article provides a baseline for understanding the current state of the art in estimating volumetric change of lakes and wetlands using citizen science in anticipation of the recently launched Surface Water and Ocean Topography Mission.

Shahzaib Khan↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Estimating Future Changes of Energy Demand for Heating and Cooling Buildings at NASA Centers GC23J-1198

With its unique and trusted earth observations, NASA is a critical source in informing decisions that will help achieve the U.S. goal of Net-Zero Greenhouse Gas (GHG) Emissions by 2050. NASA’s Prediction of Worldwide Energy Resource (POWER) project facilitates the use of NASA Earth Science data holdings within the energy, agricultural, and building heating/cooling design industries. POWER packages solar and meteorological data from several NASA projects in a user friendly GIS-enabled web services system (https://power.larc.nasa.gov). As part of the development of new data products to support the energy and building heating/cooling design communities, we estimate the changes in energy required to heat and cool buildings in the future climate at 14 different NASA site locations spread throughout the continental United States, as projected by CMIP6 climate models under different emissions scenarios. Bias-corrected downscaled time series of meteorological variables are taken from NASA Earth Exchange (NEX) Global Daily Downscaled Projections (GDDP-CMIP6) downscaled climate model data. The spread between the different model projections is accounted for by analyzing both the ensemble average of 22 CMIP6 models and 6 representative models with different climate sensitivities and different interannual variability. Changes in energy use are estimated in two ways. First, changes in the total annual heating and cooling degree days (HDD and CDD, respectively) are calculated relative to the current climate. This is done at all 14 sites. Second, the downscaled time series are used as inputs into RETScreen(R), a clean energy management decision tool, to give an estimate of heating/cooling energy use for a typical office building. We use this estimation method with model data at Langley Research Center. In the next 50 years, the annual total of HDD (CDD) is projected to decrease by 8-38% (increase by 5-28%) at all sites, with the increase in CDD typically a larger magnitude the decrease in HDD. For a typical small office building at Langley Research Center, the amount of energy needed to cool increases by 33-54% and the amount of energy to heat decreases by 29-40%. POWER is working to develop long term climate data services based on these results to include in future data products to provide to users.

Bradley M. Hegyi↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Hybrid Flush and Synthetic Air Data Filter for Entry Vehicle Atmospheric State Estimation

A hybrid flush/synthetic air data sensing filter for entry vehicle atmosphere estimation is developed. The approach makes use of a Kalman-Schmidt and Rauch-Tung-Streibel smoother. The filter/smoother blends information from pressure sensors distributed on the heatshield with pseudo-measurements of the vehicle aerodynamic forces and moments computed from mass properties and inertial measurement unit data, and prior estimates of the atmosphere. The filter produces estimates of the atmospheric conditions along the entry trajectory, and systematic error estimates to reconcile differences between the pressure and aerodynamic data sources. The filter is applied to data acquired during the Mars 2020 entry, descent, and landing at Jezero crater on February 18th, 2021. The final paper will also include results from the Mars Science Laboratory entry, descent, and landing.

Chris D. Karlgaard↗

NASA NTRS2023

Observational Constraints Reduce Model Spread but Not Uncertainty in Global Wetland Methane Emission Estimates

The recent rise in atmospheric methane (CH 4 ) concentrations accelerates climate change and offsets mitigation efforts. Although wetlands are the largest natural CH 4 source, estimates of global wetland CH 4 emissions vary widely among approaches taken by bottom-up (BU) process-based biogeochemical models and top-down (TD) atmospheric inversion methods. Here, we integrate in situ measurements, multi-model ensembles, and a machine learning upscaling product into the International Land Model Benchmarking system to examine the relationship between wetland CH 4 emission estimates and model performance. We find that using better-performing models identified by observational constraints reduces the spread of wetland CH 4 emission estimates by 62% and 39% for BU- and TD-based approaches, respectively. However, global BU and TD CH 4 emission estimate discrepancies increased by about 15% (from 31 to 36 TgCH 4 year −1 ) when the top 20% models were used, although we consider this result moderately uncertain given the unevenly distributed global observations. Our analyses demonstrate that model performance ranking is subject to benchmark selection due to large inter-site variability, highlighting the importance of expanding coverage of benchmark sites to diverse environmental conditions. We encourage future development of wetland CH 4 models to move beyond static benchmarking and focus on evaluating site-specific and ecosystem-specific variabilities inferred from observations.

Kuang-Yu Chang↗

NASA NTRS2024

Influence of SMAP Soil Moisture Retrieval Assimilation on Runoff Estimation Across South Asia

This study was designed to characterize and quantify the influence of surface soil moisture assimilation on estimated runoff (surface flow and baseflow) and hydraulically-routed streamflow across three large river basins in South Asia that are at risk of impending water stress. Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) surface soil moisture retrievals were assimilated into the Noah-MP land surface model. The gridded runoff was hydraulically routed to obtain volumetric streamflow values for a river network using a runoff routing module (Hydrological Modeling and Analysis Platform, HyMAP). The open loop (OL, model-only) and data assimilated (DA, includes soil moisture retrieval assimilation) Noah-MP runoff estimates highlighted the improvements in estimated total runoff across irrigated areas. Soil moisture assimilation impacted baseflow more relative to surface runoff. The HyMAP-based OL and DA streamflow generally underestimated the streamflow at upstream stations and overestimated the streamflow at downstream stations within the Indus basin due to missing physics related to reservoir operations. For stations located in the Ganges–Brahmaputra basins, the OL and DA estimation performance varied. The OL and DA results showed that the assimilation of soil moisture retrievals improves gridded runoff and volumetric streamflow across irrigated areas. Considerable relative change in streamflow (>70% increase in magnitude relative to OL) is noted after assimilation across the highly irrigated lower Indus basin and high precipitation regions in Bangladesh. Improving the modeling system’s representativeness of ground conditions via inclusion of water management information could improve large-scale streamflow modeling across South Asia.

soil moisture↗