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At least 1,405 records · Page 78

Evaluation of present-day extreme precipitation over the United States: an inter-comparison of convection and dynamic permitting configurations of E3SMv1

Abstract Accurate simulation of the present-day characteristics of mean and extreme precipitation at regional scales remains a challenge for Earth system models, which is due in part to deficiencies in model physics such as convective parameterization (CP), and coarse resolution. High horizontal resolution (HR, ∼25 km) and multiscale modeling framework (MMF, i.e. replacing conventional CP with embedded km-scale cloud-resolving models) are two promising directions that could help improve the interaction between subgrid-scale physical processes and large-scale climate. Here, we evaluate simulated extreme precipitation over the United States (US) across three configurations (i.e. low-resolution [LR], HR, and MMF) of the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SMv1) and intercompare them against two gridded observation datasets (climate prediction center daily US precipitation and integrated multi-satellite retrievals for global precipitation measurement). We assess the model’s ability to simulate very heavy seasonal precipitation (illustrated by the difference between the 99th and 90th percentile values) as well as the spatial distributions of several extreme precipitation indices defined by the expert team on climate change detection and indices. Our results show that both the dry (i.e. consecutive dry days (CDD)) and wet (i.e. consecutive wet days, maximum 5 day precipitation, and very wet days) extremes evaluated herein show some improvement as well as degradation with MMF and HR relative to LR. These results vary across seasons and US subregions. For instance, only the very heavy precipitation of winter is improved with MMF and HR. Both configurations alleviate the well-known drizzling bias evident in LR across both winter and summer in many parts of the US, largely due to the overall improvement in intensity and frequency of precipitation. Additionally, our results suggest that while E3SMv1-MMF has higher intensity rates when it does rain, it has too many CDD during the summer, contributing to a low mean precipitation bias.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Power System Resilience Evaluation Framework and Metric Review

Power system resilience has been an emerging hot topic in recent years to investigate the increasing threats of extreme events, such as natural disasters, severe weather, and cyberattacks. Although much research has been done to define, model, and quantify resilience from different aspects, the lack of universally accepted evaluation methods and resilience metrics makes it difficult to assess and compare resilience across different power systems, such as what is typically done in power system reliability studies. In this paper, first, we review the definitions of resilience, and we summarize two core concepts shared by most of the literature. Then, we develop a new framework to assess power system resilience from two perspectives - i.e., pre-event estimation and post-event evaluation - to capture system resilience performance in both general and specific fashions. We conduct a thorough review of existing resilience metrics and categorize them using the proposed framework, where recommendations are also proposed to capture core concepts of resilience.

power system resilience↗

Performance Evaluation of Multi-Vendor Grid-Forming Inverters for Grid-Connected Operation Through Hardware Experimentation: Preprint

Existing real-world projects of GFM inverters that operate in parallel to power grids typically are sized between dozens and a few hundreds Megawatt (MW) scale according to a recent NERC GFM inverter white paper. These large systems are often difficult to evaluate prior to deployments because of their large size. The performance of smaller GFM inverters (dozens to a few hundreds MW) that operate parallel with power grids (distribution systems) is even less understood. There is an opportunity to better understand these systems through hardware testing under controlled laboratory conditions. Therefore, this paper presents the functional performance evaluation tests of multiple (three) commercial GFM inverters when they operate in parallel with the grid through hardware experiments. The goal of these tests is to explore the GFM inverters' functionalities and dynamic response when in parallel with power grids to eventually develop universal specifications for GFM inverters. Both steady state (changing the inverter's frequency and voltage droop) and transient (adding step change in grid's frequency/voltage) tests are performed for each GFM inverter with the same testing circuit and testing protocol. The experimental results indicate the bench-marked performance that: 1) the GFM inverters can be dispatched through frequency and voltage droop intercepts to output the target power when paralleled to the grid; 2) the GFM inverters automatically respond to system frequency and voltage events to output the needed power, however, the GFM inverters all show stability issues when absorbing reactive power from the grid.

grid-forming inverters↗

Performance evaluation of the USGS velocity model for the San Francisco Bay Area

In this study, we evaluated the performance of the United States Geological Survey velocity model developed for the San Francisco Bay Area (SFBA), version 21.1. The evaluation was performed through high-resolution three-dimensional physics-based ground motion simulations of seven small-magnitude earthquakes (ranging from magnitude 3.8 to 4.4) that occurred on the eastern side of the San Francisco Bay. The simulations were performed in the frequency range from 0 to 5 Hz with a minimum shear-wave velocity of 250 m/s, which allowed the capture of wave propagation effects of the near-surface soft materials that characterize local basins. Based on the direct comparison of Fourier amplitude spectra between recorded and simulated ground motions for more than 250 stations, we found that the velocity model generally performs well in the frequency range of 0.2–5 Hz. The median value of the Fourier amplitude residuals was found to be near zero for all seven earthquakes. The slight over-prediction of 0.2 log-natural units at frequencies above 3 Hz in our simulations was attributed to the potentially inaccurate representation of the source radiation pattern by a double-couple point source model, and simple representation of shallow small-scale underground structural complexity in the velocity model. Maps of spectral amplitude differences between the simulated and recorded data were used to identify areas responsible for systematic ground motion over-predictions or under-predictions. For example, while some sub-domains over soft sediments show over-prediction patterns, the block east of the Hayward fault is prone to exhibit patterns of under-prediction. These maps can be used to guide future refinements of the SFBA velocity model. Since our simulation methodology allows for the decoupling of the source and wave propagation effects, the ground motion data generated by our simulations can also be used to quantify the epistemic uncertainty due to the velocity model, in empirically based ground motion estimates for the SFBA.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

The winter central Arctic surface energy budget: A model evaluation using observations from the MOSAiC campaign

This study evaluates the simulation of wintertime (15 October, 2019, to 15 March, 2020) statistics of the central Arctic near-surface atmosphere and surface energy budget observed during the MOSAiC campaign with short-term forecasts from 7 state-of-the-art operational and experimental forecast systems. Five of these systems are fully coupled ocean-sea ice-atmosphere models. Forecast systems need to simultaneously simulate the impact of radiative effects, turbulence, and precipitation processes on the surface energy budget and near-surface atmospheric conditions in order to produce useful forecasts of the Arctic system. This study focuses on processes unique to the Arctic, such as, the representation of liquid-bearing clouds at cold temperatures and the representation of a persistent stable boundary layer. It is found that contemporary models still struggle to maintain liquid water in clouds at cold temperatures. Given the simple balance between net longwave radiation, sensible heat flux, and conductive ground flux in the wintertime Arctic surface energy balance, a bias in one of these components manifests as a compensating bias in other terms. This study highlights the different manifestations of model bias and the potential implications on other terms. Three general types of challenges are found within the models evaluated: representing the radiative impact of clouds, representing the interaction of atmospheric heat fluxes with sub-surface fluxes (i.e., snow and ice properties), and representing the relationship between stability and turbulent heat fluxes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

A Multi-criteria CCUS Screening Evaluation of the Gulf of Mexico, USA - Supplementary Data

The Wendt et al. study aims to incorporate multiple and disparate carbon capture, utilization, and storage (CCUS) decision-making criteria into a systematic, quantitative analytical approach to help identify areas with potentially high suitability to serve as offshore CO2 storage or EOR regions. Spatially-distributed data from publicly-available sources within the Gulf of Mexico (GOM) study area (limited to federal waters; state waters were not evaluated) was compiled using the U.S. Department of Energy's (DOE) National Energy Technology Laboratory (NETL) Cumulative Spatial Impact Layers™ (CSIL) tool to easily aggregate data based on evenly-distributed grids across the study region set at a resolution of approximately 25 square miles (65 square kilometers). The data included in this Microsoft Excel™ workbook provide the aggregated scores for each grid point across the study domain as well the weighting for each criterion under the four scenarios evaluated.

CCUS↗

Chapter 17: Residential Behavior Evaluation Protocol. The Uniform Methods Project: Methods for Determining Energy Efficiency Savings for Specific Measures, September 2011 - August 2020

This document has been updated in August 2020. This document was developed for the U.S. Department of Energy Uniform Methods Project (UMP). The UMP provides model protocols for determining energy and demand savings that result from specific energy-efficiency measures implemented through state and utility programs. In most cases, the measure protocols are based on a particular option identified by the International Performance Verification and Measurement Protocol; however, this work provides a more detailed approach to implementing that option. Each chapter is written by technical experts in collaboration with their peers, reviewed by industry experts, and subject to public review and comment. The protocols are updated on an as-needed basis. The UMP protocols can be used by utilities, program administrators, public utility commissions,evaluators, and other stakeholders for both program planning and evaluation. To learn more about the UMP, visit the website, https://energy.gov/eere/about-us/ump-home, or download the UMP introduction document at http://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy17osti/68557.pdf.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Evaluation and improvement of the parameterization of aerosol hygroscopicity in global climate models using in-situ surface measurements (Final Report)

Aerosols are tiny particles suspended on the atmosphere that can interact with incoming solar radiation and affect the Earth radiative budget. They do so by scattering and absorbing solar radiation, and these properties vary depending on the aerosol size and chemical composition. Moreover, by taking up water from the surrounding air, hygroscopic aerosol particles will grow in size and change their chemical composition, thus modifying their optical properties (scattering and absorption) and their final impact on radiative forcing calculations. An accurate knowledge of aerosol hygroscopicity is crucial for estimating the net radiative impact of aerosols. We took a three-pronged approach to improve our understanding of aerosol hygroscopicity and how it is implemented in Earth system models. In the first part of our project, we developed a benchmark dataset from existing aerosol hygroscopic growth measurements made by tandem nephelometer humidogram systems. We analyzed, using a standardized methodology, observations from 26 in-situ stations around the globe. Measurement data was collected from multiple data providers, reviewed and harmonized to create a consistent dataset of the scattering enhancement factor due to aerosol water uptake. This dataset is archived in several publicly available databases for use by interested researchers. In the second part of the project, we used the benchmark hygroscopicity dataset to perform a global study on aerosol hygroscopicity and aerosol optical properties. Measurements show a global picture of scattering enhancement with larger values for Arctic and marine sites and lower for urban and desert sites. We assessed the RH dependence of aerosol radiative forcing and showed that the overall effect of aerosol hygroscopicity on DARF is an increase in the absolute forcing effect (negative sign) by a factor of up to 4 compared to dry conditions (RH<40%). Finally, we explored using aerosol single scattering albedo (SSA) and scattering Angstrom exponent (SAE) as possible proxies for aerosol hygroscopicity. SSA showed more promise as a surrogate for the scattering enhancement factor than SAE, but neither was ideal. In the third part of the project we evaluated the output of ten Earth system models (ESMs) against the benchmark hygroscopicity dataset. ESMs utilize various schemes for aerosol hygroscopicity which had not been previously tested against observations on a global scale. We found that ESMs currently overestimate scattering enhancement due to hygroscopic growth. Model parameterizations of hygroscopicity and model chemistry are two main factors driving the observed diversity in hygroscopicity simulations among the models. In addition, our study makes several suggestions for modelers, including improving the parameterizations of organic and sea salt aerosol hygroscopicity. Future hygroscopicity model evaluation experiments should include the model data related to particles size which was not available for our study.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

181 Ta - fast neutron evaluation [Slides]

Reliable fast-neutron evaluation can be entirely encapsulated in the reaction model and related input. Ta181 is a particularly relevant case due to extraordinary coverage of various observables by differential experiments that offer much help and relatively little headache. Differences from the similar ENDF/B-VIII evaluation include: more advanced modeling (CC OMP, MSD, MSC, decay schemes), more careful selection of models and parameters, new experimental data, and isomers. Overall, improved agreement with differential data and hints of better performance in integral testing.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

TSL Nuclear Fuel Evaluations and Capabilities at NC State University [Slides]

This presentation discusses the purpose of this project which is to provide thermal scattering law (TSL) and cross section data to support advanced reactor modeling and criticality safety. The presentation also examines modeling and simulations, evaluation updates, and benchmark applications in connection with the project. In summation, new and updated uranium fuel evaluations have been submitted to the ENDF/B libraries. These include vital fuel materials U-metal, UC, UN, and UO 2 .

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

On the Uranium and Plutonium Nuclear Data Evaluations [Slides]

This presentation provides overviews of uraniums, 233 U and 235 U, plutonium research including motivations, current status in ENDF/B-VIII.0, the inclusion of sub-thermal data, and the inclusion of LANL ratio capture-to-fission data. Additionally, the preliminary fit of Mosby’s data as reported, fluctuating neutron multiplicities, uncertainty in evaluated libraries, and experimental effects are also presented. The presentation concludes by providing a summary of plans for the U and Pu evaluation work.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Workforce Program Design and Evaluation [Slides]

This is a presentation for a Better Buildings Workforce Accelerator workshop on workforce program design and evaluation. The presentation includes content and tools to help in crafting program or course goals and objectives (and the difference between the two), and on selecting appropriate evaluation metrics based on the goals and desired outcomes of the program.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Proposed Updates to Pu Evaluation for ENDF/B-VIII.0β 2 [Slides]

This presentation shows current status of in ENDF/B-VIII.0 and ENDF/B-VIII.0β 1 Pu evaluations. With a focus on the Pu thermal solutions (PST) and sanity check on fast metal assemblies (PMF). Pu ENDFβ 1 file in the low-energy region included updates in RRR (up to 2.5 keV), TNC and PFNS. Discussed are improvements over ENDF/B-VIII.0 in the C/E benchmarks (PST 81 cases) with preliminary ν p and cross section covariance generation for the resolved resonance energy range up to 2.25 keV. Highlighted are proposed updates for ENDFβ 2 with an extension of the RRR evaluation up to 5 keV, inclusion of Mosby’s data including proper resolution function (thanks to Marian J.), and a particular focus on η energy dependence from thermal up to 10 eV with the impact of the capture-to-fission ratio at 0.29 eV. This presentation concludes with an updated ν p and cross section covariance generation for the resolved resonance energy range up to 5 keV. And additional validation to test performance at about 2 eV and in the keV region.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

SG 51 Proposal: Unresolved Evaluations [Slides]

This presentation is on the SG 51 Proposal: unresolved evaluations. This lecture includes URR evaluations with a look at measurements, linking RRR and URR, and unified RRR and URR. This talk ends with a discussion.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

ES4SE Technical Assistance Program Evaluation

Technical assistance (TA) programs can provide organizations and communities with the information, tools, and resources needed to support their development and resilience goals. The Energy Storage for Social Equity (ES4SE) TA program sought to empower undeserved communities through co-development of energy storage pathways and solutions to address community-defined challenges and needs. Evaluating the design, implementation, and outcomes of TA programs like ES4SE is critical to understanding whether program and participant goals were accomplished and how to adjust the TA approach to better meet participant needs. This evaluation explores the experiences and perceptions of community participants in the ES4SE TA program.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

An Evaluation Framework for State Energy Offices' Energy Efficiency and Clean Energy Workforce Programs

Historic levels of funding for energy efficiency and clean energy projects from the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law and Inflation Reduction Act will be flowing through State Energy Offices (SEOs) in the coming years, including funds specifically for supporting workforce development efforts. This report offers a workforce evaluation framework that they can use to track and measure the progress, performance, and effectiveness of energy efficiency and clean energy workforce programs that they fund and/or implement. This evaluation step is essential to ensuring that SEOs' workforce efforts remain relevant to the evolving needs of the energy efficiency and clean energy sector and advance a workforce that is inclusive and diverse thus maximizing the success of their programs.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗