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At least 1,405 records · Page 78

Variability in Global Top-of-Atmosphere Shortwave Radiation Between 2000 and 2005

Measurements from various instruments and analysis techniques are used to directly compare changes in Earth-atmosphere shortwave (SW) top-of-atmosphere (TOA) radiation between 2000 and 2005. Included in the comparison are estimates of TOA reflectance variability from published ground-based Earthshine observations and from new satellite-based CERES, MODIS and ISCCP results. The ground-based Earthshine data show an order-of-magnitude more variability in annual mean SW TOA flux than either CERES or ISCCP, while ISCCP and CERES SW TOA flux variability is consistent to 40%. Most of the variability in CERES TOA flux is shown to be dominated by variations global cloud fraction, as observed using coincident CERES and MODIS data. Idealized Earthshine simulations of TOA SW radiation variability for a lunar-based observer show far less variability than the ground-based Earthshine observations, but are still a factor of 4-5 times more variable than global CERES SW TOA flux results. Furthermore, while CERES global albedos exhibit a well-defined seasonal cycle each year, the seasonal cycle in the lunar Earthshine reflectance simulations is highly variable and out-of-phase from one year to the next. Radiative transfer model (RTM) approaches that use imager cloud and aerosol retrievals reproduce most of the change in SW TOA radiation observed in broadband CERES data. However, assumptions used to represent the spectral properties of the atmosphere, clouds, aerosols and surface in the RTM calculations can introduce significant uncertainties in annual mean changes in regional and global SW TOA flux.

Loebe, Norman G.↗

Improved Regression Analysis of Temperature-Dependent Strain-Gage Balance Calibration Data

An improved approach is discussed that may be used to directly include first and second order temperature effects in the load prediction algorithm of a wind tunnel strain-gage balance. The improved approach was designed for the Iterative Method that fits strain-gage outputs as a function of calibration loads and uses a load iteration scheme during the wind tunnel test to predict loads from measured gage outputs. The improved approach assumes that the strain-gage balance is at a constant uniform temperature when it is calibrated and used. First, the method introduces a new independent variable for the regression analysis of the balance calibration data. The new variable is designed as the difference between the uniform temperature of the balance and a global reference temperature. This reference temperature should be the primary calibration temperature of the balance so that, if needed, a tare load iteration can be performed. Then, two temperature{dependent terms are included in the regression models of the gage outputs. They are the temperature difference itself and the square of the temperature difference. Simulated temperature{dependent data obtained from Triumph Aerospace's 2013 calibration of NASA's ARC-30K five component semi{span balance is used to illustrate the application of the improved approach.

wind tunnel testing↗

Datasets for DOE 2021 Communities LEAP Pilot

This submission offers data aligned to each of the four eligibility criteria outlined in the United States Department of Energy (DOE) 2021 Communities LEAP (Local Energy Action Program) Pilot. Please visit the LEAP website (https://www.energy.gov/communitiesLEAP/communities-leap) to learn more about LEAP and gain additional contextual information for how these data may be used. The data provided in the file approximates how the eligibility criteria apply at the census tract level across the United States (U.S.). The excel file available for download provides information pertaining to each of the four criteria outlined (average energy burden, percent low income, historic fossil energy communities) for all census tracts within the 50 U.S. States, the District of Columbia (D.C.), and Puerto Rico. The tabs within the excel file provide a file description, a summary data table (a simplified, easy to use presentation of the four eligibilities criteria), metadata (description, source, and other pertinent details for all variables provided), and a full, detailed data table. Please note that while these data are provided at the census tract level, census tracts do not necessarily have the same physical boundaries as a community but were used as they provide the closest proxy based on publicly available information collected using an empirically robust method. U.S. territories are not listed but are eligible to apply to Communities LEAP. As stated in the Opportunity Announcement, applying communities should describe how they meet the eligibility criteria in their application even if these data do not specifically show that they are eligible.

Communities↗

Relationships Among Lower Body Strength, Power, and Performance of Functional Tasks

There is a large degree of variability among crewmembers with respect to decrements in muscle strength and power following long duration spaceflight, ranging from 0 to approx.30% reductions. The purpose of this study was to investigate the influence of varying decrements in lower body muscle strength and power (relative to body weight) on the performance of 2 occupationally relevant tasks (ladder climb and supine egress & walk). Seventeen participants with leg strength similar to US crewmembers performed a leg press power test, an isokinetic knee extension strength test and they were asked to complete the 2 functional tasks as quickly as possible. On additional test days the participants were asked to repeat the functional tasks under 3 conditions where a different external load was applied each time using a weighted suit in order to experimentally manipulate participants strength/body weight and power/body weight ratios. The weight in the suit ranged from 20-120% of body weight and was distributed in proportion to limb segment weights to minimize changes in center of gravity. The ladder task consisted of climbing 40 rungs on a ladder treadmill as fast as possible. The supine egress & walk task consisted of rising from a supine position and walking through an obstacle course. Results show a relatively linear relationship between strength/body weight and task time and power/body weight with task time such that the fastest performance times are associated with higher strength and power with about half the variance in task time is accounted for by a single variable (either strength or power). For the average person, a 20% reduction in power/body weight (from 18 to 14.4 W/kg) induces an increase (slowing) of about 10 seconds in the ladder climb task from 14 to 24 seconds (approx.70%) and a slowing of the supine egress & walk task from 14 to 21 seconds (approx.50%). Similar relationships were observed with strength/body weight and task performance. For the average person, a 20% reduction in strength/body weight (from 2.1 to 1.7 Nm/kg) resulted in a slowing of the ladder climb from 10.5 to 24 seconds (approx.128%) and a slowing of the supine egress & walk from 11 to 20 seconds (approx.82%). These data suggest that the single variable of either low body muscle strength or power, relative to body weight is predictive of about 50% of the variance in task performance time, and that considerable slowing in task performance is associated with relatively typical decrements in muscle performance seen with long duration spaceflight. The observation of a relatively linear relationship between strength/power and task time suggests that across the full spectrum of initial crew strengths and typical decrements in strength previously observed, that task performance would be expected to be slowed following long duration spaceflight. These data will be confirmed in actual spaceflight with subsequent studies.

Ploutz-Snyder, Lori↗

Statistical Quality Control of Moisture Data in GEOS DAS

A new statistical quality control algorithm was recently implemented in the Goddard Earth Observing System Data Assimilation System (GEOS DAS). The final step in the algorithm consists of an adaptive buddy check that either accepts or rejects outlier observations based on a local statistical analysis of nearby data. A basic assumption in any such test is that the observed field is spatially coherent, in the sense that nearby data can be expected to confirm each other. However, the buddy check resulted in excessive rejection of moisture data, especially during the Northern Hemisphere summer. The analysis moisture variable in GEOS DAS is water vapor mixing ratio. Observational evidence shows that the distribution of mixing ratio errors is far from normal. Furthermore, spatial correlations among mixing ratio errors are highly anisotropic and difficult to identify. Both factors contribute to the poor performance of the statistical quality control algorithm. To alleviate the problem, we applied the buddy check to relative humidity data instead. This variable explicitly depends on temperature and therefore exhibits a much greater spatial coherence. As a result, reject rates of moisture data are much more reasonable and homogeneous in time and space.

Dee, D. P.↗

Bayesian inference of structured latent spaces from neural population activity with the orthogonal stochastic linear mixing model

The brain produces diverse functions, from perceiving sounds to producing arm reaches, through the collective activity of populations of many neurons. Determining if and how the features of these exogenous variables (e.g., sound frequency, reach angle) are reflected in population neural activity is important for understanding how the brain operates. Often, high-dimensional neural population activity is confined to low-dimensional latent spaces. However, many current methods fail to extract latent spaces that are clearly structured by exogenous variables. This has contributed to a debate about whether or not brains should be thought of as dynamical systems or representational systems. Here, we developed a new latent process Bayesian regression framework, the orthogonal stochastic linear mixing model (OSLMM) which introduces an orthogonality constraint amongst time-varying mixture coefficients, and provide Markov chain Monte Carlo inference procedures. We demonstrate superior performance of OSLMM on latent trajectory recovery in synthetic experiments and show superior computational efficiency and prediction performance on several real-world benchmark data sets. We primarily focus on demonstrating the utility of OSLMM in two neural data sets: μ ECoG recordings from rat auditory cortex during presentation of pure tones and multi-single unit recordings form monkey motor cortex during complex arm reaching. We show that OSLMM achieves superior or comparable predictive accuracy of neural data and decoding of external variables (e.g., reach velocity). Most importantly, in both experimental contexts, we demonstrate that OSLMM latent trajectories directly reflect features of the sounds and reaches, demonstrating that neural dynamics are structured by neural representations. Together, these results demonstrate that OSLMM will be useful for the analysis of diverse, large-scale biological time-series datasets.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Modeling Bird Migration under Climate Change: A Mechanistic Approach

How will migrating birds respond to changes in the environment under climate change? What are the implications for migratory success under the various accelerated climate change scenarios as forecast by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change? How will reductions or increased variability in the number or quality of wetland stop-over sites affect migratory bird species? The answers to these questions have important ramifications for conservation biology and wildlife management. Here, we describe the use of continental scale simulation modeling to explore how spatio-temporal changes along migratory flyways affect en-route migration success. We use an individually based, biophysical, mechanistic, bird migration model to simulate the movement of shorebirds in North America as a tool to study how such factors as drought and wetland loss may impact migratory success and modify migration patterns. Our model is driven by remote sensing and climate data and incorporates important landscape variables. The energy budget components of the model include resting, foraging, and flight, but presently predation is ignored. Results/Conclusions We illustrate our model by studying the spring migration of sandpipers through the Great Plains to their Arctic breeding grounds. Why many species of shorebirds have shown significant declines remains a puzzle. Shorebirds are sensitive to stop-over quality and spacing because of their need for frequent refueling stops and their opportunistic feeding patterns. We predict bird "hydrographs that is, stop-over frequency with latitude, that are in agreement with the literature. Mean stop-over durations predicted from our model for nominal cases also are consistent with the limited, but available data. For the shorebird species simulated, our model predicts that shorebirds exhibit significant plasticity and are able to shift their migration patterns in response to changing drought conditions. However, the question remains as to whether this behavior can be maintained over increasing and sustained environmental change. Also, the problem is much more complex than described by the current processes captured in our model. We have taken some important and interesting steps, and our model does demonstrate how local scale information about individual stop-over sites can be linked into the migratory flyway as a whole. We are incorporating additional, species specific, mechanistic processes to better reflect different climate change scenarios

Smith, James A.↗

A new phenomenological model to describe root-soil interactions based on percolation theory

In his paper on net primary productivity of terrestrial communities predicted from climatological data, Rosenzweig (1968) argued that variability in productivity is well accounted for by (evapo)-transpiration, and that water from transpiration is, on global scales, the most variable component in the photosynthesis reaction. The goal of this paper is to investigate whether variability in plant growth on local scales and within species is primarily related to transpiration under several scenarios including different terrain curvature, slope aspect, soil characteristics, and climate ranges. Here, we test the hypothesis that this relationship exists because root growth into the surface soil layers (0–2 m) tends to follow paths with minima in resistance, which in turn maximizes water flow and nutrient delivery rates that regulate growth. The set of all connected paths with individual pore-to-pore flow resistances less than a critical, percolating, value forms a cluster with mass fractal dimensionality, d f . We propose that roots follow paths through the 2D percolation cluster, defining the set of all optimal flow paths, making the 2D value of d f from percolation relevant to root fractal dimensionality. The tortuosity of such optimal paths as defined in percolation theory should then relate root length to root radial extent, linking the parameters of root tortuosity and plant productivity. Our analysis of large data sets across species implies that root radial extent and tree height are both proportional to cumulative transpiration until trees approached maximum height, and their growth rates are proportional to the transpiration rate, not to the moisture content. Local variations in tree height as functions of the variables investigated appear generally consistent with deduced variations in transpiration. Here this correlation is investigated more closely in the context of studies addressing individual tree species.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Cloud cover archiving on a global scale - A discussion of principles

Monitoring of climatic variability and climate modeling both require a reliable global cloud data set. Examination is made of the temporal and spatial variability of cloudiness in light of recommendations made by GARP in 1975 (and updated by JOC in 1978 and 1980) for cloud data archiving. An examination of the methods of comparing cloud cover frequency curves suggests that the use of the beta distribution not only facilitates objective comparison, but also reduces overall storage requirements. A specific study of the only current global cloud climatology (the U.S. Air Force's 3-dimensional nephanalysis) over the United Kingdom indicates that discussion of methods of validating satellite-based data sets is urgently required.

Henderson-Sellers, A.↗

Application of acoustic-Doppler current profiler and expendable bathythermograph measurements to the study of the velocity structure and transport of the Gulf Stream

The degree to which Acoustic-Doppler Current Profiler (ADCP) and expendable bathythermograph (XBT) data can provide quantitative measurements of the velocity structure and transport of the Gulf Stream is addressed. An algorithm is used to generate salinity from temperature and depth using an historical Temperature/Salinity relation for the NW Atlantic. Results have been simulated using CTD data and comparing real and pseudo salinity files. Errors are typically less than 2 dynamic cm for the upper 800 m out of a total signal of 80 cm (across the Gulf Stream). When combined with ADCP data for a near-surface reference velocity, transport errors in isopycnal layers are less than about 1 Sv (10 to the 6th power cu m/s), as is the difference in total transport for the upper 800 m between real and pseudo data. The method is capable of measuring the real variability of the Gulf Stream, and when combined with altimeter data, can provide estimates of the geoid slope with oceanic errors of a few parts in 10 to the 8th power over horizontal scales of 500 km.

Joyce, T. M.↗

Multi-application controls: Robust nonlinear multivariable aerospace controls applications

This viewgraph presentation describes the general methodology used to apply Honywell's Multi-Application Control (MACH) and the specific application to the F-18 High Angle-of-Attack Research Vehicle (HARV) including piloted simulation handling qualities evaluation. The general steps include insertion of modeling data for geometry and mass properties, aerodynamics, propulsion data and assumptions, requirements and specifications, e.g. definition of control variables, handling qualities, stability margins and statements for bandwidth, control power, priorities, position and rate limits. The specific steps include choice of independent variables for least squares fits to aerodynamic and propulsion data, modifications to the management of the controls with regard to integrator windup and actuation limiting and priorities, e.g. pitch priority over roll, and command limiting to prevent departures and/or undesirable inertial coupling or inability to recover to a stable trim condition. The HARV control problem is characterized by significant nonlinearities and multivariable interactions in the low speed, high angle-of-attack, high angular rate flight regime. Systematic approaches to the control of vehicle motions modeled with coupled nonlinear equations of motion have been developed. This paper will discuss the dynamic inversion approach which explicity accounts for nonlinearities in the control design. Multiple control effectors (including aerodynamic control surfaces and thrust vectoring control) and sensors are used to control the motions of the vehicles in several degrees-of-freedom. Several maneuvers will be used to illustrate performance of MACH in the high angle-of-attack flight regime. Analytical methods for assessing the robust performance of the multivariable control system in the presence of math modeling uncertainty, disturbances, and commands have reached a high level of maturity. The structured singular value (mu) frequency response methodology is presented as a method for analyzing robust performance and the mu-synthesis method will be presented as a method for synthesizing a robust control system. The paper concludes with the author's expectations regarding future applications of robust nonlinear multivariable controls.

Enns, Dale F.↗

The Potential for Predicting Precipitation on Seasonal-to-Interannual Timescales

The ability to predict precipitation several months in advance would have a significant impact on water resource management. This talk provides an overview of a project aimed at developing this prediction capability. NASA's Seasonal-to-Interannual Prediction Project (NSIPP) will generate seasonal-to-interannual sea surface temperature predictions through detailed ocean circulation modeling and will then translate these SST forecasts into forecasts of continental precipitation through the application of an atmospheric general circulation model and a "SVAT"-type land surface model. As part of the process, ocean variables (e.g., height) and land variables (e.g., soil moisture) will be updated regularly via data assimilation. The overview will include a discussion of the variability inherent in such a modeling system and will provide some quantitative estimates of the absolute upper limits of seasonal-to-interannual precipitation predictability.

Koster, R. D.↗

A self-documenting source-independent data format for computer processing of tensor time series

The UCLA Space Science Group has developed a fixed format intermediate data set called a block data set, which is designed to hold multiple segments of multicomponent sampled data series. The format is sufficiently general so that tensor functions of one or more independent variables can be stored in the form of virtual data. This makes it possible for the unit data records of the block data set to be arrays of a single dependent variable rather than discrete samples. The format is self-documenting with parameter, label and header records completely characterizing the contents of the file. The block data set has been applied to the filing of satellite data (of ATS-6 among others).

Mcpherron, R. L.↗

Crop weather models of corn and soybeans for Agrophysical Units (APU's) in Iowa using monthly meteorological predictors

Models based on multiple regression were developed to estimate corn and soybean yield from weather data for agrophysical units (APU) in Iowa. The predictor variables are derived from monthly average temperature and monthly total precipitation data at meteorological stations in the cooperative network. The models are similar in form to the previous models developed for crop reporting districts (CRD). The trends and derived variables were the same and the approach to select the significant predictors was similar to that used in developing the CRD models. The APU's were selected to be more homogeneous with respect crop to production than the CRDs. The APU models are quite similar to the CRD models, similar explained variation and number of predictor variables. The APU models are to be independently evaluated and compared to the previously evaluated CRD models. That comparison should indicate the preferred model area for this application, i.e., APU or CRD.

Leduc, S.↗

Google Health Trends performance reflecting dengue incidence for the Brazilian states

Abstract Background Dengue fever is a mosquito-borne infection transmitted by Aedes aegypti and mainly found in tropical and subtropical regions worldwide. Since its re-introduction in 1986, Brazil has become a hotspot for dengue and has experienced yearly epidemics. As a notifiable infectious disease, Brazil uses a passive epidemiological surveillance system to collect and report cases; however, dengue burden is underestimated. Thus, Internet data streams may complement surveillance activities by providing real-time information in the face of reporting lags. Methods We analyzed 19 terms related to dengue using Google Health Trends (GHT), a free-Internet data-source, and compared it with weekly dengue incidence between 2011 to 2016. We correlated GHT data with dengue incidence at the national and state-level for Brazil while using the adjusted R squared statistic as primary outcome measure (0/1). We used survey data on Internet access and variables from the official census of 2010 to identify where GHT could be useful in tracking dengue dynamics. Finally, we used a standardized volatility index on dengue incidence and developed models with different variables with the same objective. Results From the 19 terms explored with GHT, only seven were able to consistently track dengue. From the 27 states, only 12 reported an adjusted R squared higher than 0.8; these states were distributed mainly in the Northeast, Southeast, and South of Brazil. The usefulness of GHT was explained by the logarithm of the number of Internet users in the last 3 months, the total population per state, and the standardized volatility index. Conclusions The potential contribution of GHT in complementing traditional established surveillance strategies should be analyzed in the context of geographical resolutions smaller than countries. For Brazil, GHT implementation should be analyzed in a case-by-case basis. State variables including total population, Internet usage in the last 3 months, and the standardized volatility index could serve as indicators determining when GHT could complement dengue state level surveillance in other countries.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Multiwavelength Observations of Strong Flares from the TeV Blazar 1ES 1959+650

Following the detection of strong TeV gamma ray flares from the BL Lac object 1 ES 1959+650 with the Whipple 10 m Cerenkov telescope on 2002 May 16 and 17, we performed intensive target of opportunity radio, optical, X-ray, and TeV ?ray observations from 2002 May 18 to August 14. Observations with the X-ray telescope RossiX-Ray Timing Explorer and the Whipple and HEGRA gamma-ray telescopes revealed several strong flares, enabling us to sensitively test the X-ray--gamma-ray flux correlation properties. Although the X-ray and gamma-ray fluxes seemed to be correlated in general, we found an orphan gamma-ray flare that was not accompanied by an X-ray flare. While we detected optical flux variability with the Boltwood and Abastumani observatories, the data did not give evidence for a correlation of the optical flux variability with the observed X-ray and 7-ray flares. Within statistical errors of about 0.03 Jy at 14.5 GHz and 0.05 Jy at 4.8 GHz, the radio fluxes measured with the University of Michigan Radio Astronomy Observatory stayed constant throughout the campaign; the mean values agreed well with the values measured on 2002 May 7 and June 7 at 4.9 and 15 GHz with the Very Large Array and at 4.8 GHz with archival flux measurements. After describing in detail the radio, optical, X-ray and gamma-ray light curves, and spectral energy distributions (SEDs), we present initial modeling of the SED with a simple synchrotron self- Compton model. With the addition of another TeV blazar with good broadband data, we consider the set of all TeV blazars, to begin to look for a connection of the jet properties to the properties of the central accreting black hole thought to drive the jet. Remarkably, the temporal and special X-ray and gamma-ray emission characteristics of TeV blazars are very similar, even though the mass estimates of their central black holes differ by up to 1 order of magnitude.

Krawczynski, H.↗

Benchmarking Soft Sensors for Remote Monitoring of On-Site Wastewater Treatment Plants

On-site wastewater treatment plants (OSTs) are usually unattended, so failures often remain undetected and lead to prolonged periods of reduced performance. To stabilize the performance of unattended plants, soft sensors could expose faults and failures to the operator. In a previous study, we developed soft sensors and showed that soft sensors with data from unmaintained physical sensors can be as accurate as soft sensors with data from maintained ones. The monitored variables were pH and dissolved oxygen (DO), and soft sensors were used to predict nitrification performance. In the present study, we use synthetic data and monitor three plants to test these soft sensors. We find that a long solids retention time and a moderate aeration rate improve the pH soft-sensor accuracy and that the aeration regime is the main operational parameter affecting the accuracy of the DO soft sensor. We demonstrate that integrated design of monitoring and control is necessary to achieve robustness when extrapolating from one OST to another in the absence of plant-specific fine-tuning. Additionally, we provide a unique labeled dataset for further feature and data-driven soft-sensor development. Our benchmarking results indicate that it is feasible to monitor OSTs with unmaintained sensors and without plant-specific tuning of the developed soft sensors. This is expected to drastically reduce monitoring costs for OST-based sanitation systems.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗