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At least 1,405 records · Page 78

Powering Negative-Emissions Technologies with Marine Renewable Energy

The majority of modeled emissions scenarios that meet the climate change goals outlined in the 2015 Paris Agreement require not only significant reductions in anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions, but also removal of carbon dioxide from the atmosphere ("negative emissions"). To date, research and development efforts have largely focused on land-based negative emissions technologies, such as bioenergy with carbon capture and storage. However, ocean-based technologies also have significant potential, and avoid competition for land use and fresh water with agriculture and human development. Marine carbon dioxide removal approaches include biological solutions that seek to increase carbon fixation through photosynthesis and chemical solutions that aim to increase the absorption of carbon dioxide in seawater. Most of these approaches have significant power requirements, especially when implemented at the scale necessary to meet negative-emissions goals. Marine renewable energy is uniquely poised to power marine carbon dioxide removal given its ability to provide carbon-free power at sea. In this work, the power requirements of marine carbon dioxide removal systems and the potential of marine renewable energy to power them are investigated, culminating in recommendations for future research and development to enable such developments.

marine renewable energy, carbon dioxide, climate c↗

Impacts of global open-fire aerosols on direct radiative, cloud and surface-albedo effects simulated with CAM5

Abstract. Aerosols from open-land fires could significantly perturb the global radiation balance and induce climate change. In this study, Community Atmosphere Model version 5 (CAM5) with prescribed daily fire aerosol emissions is used to investigate the spatial and seasonal characteristics of radiative effects (REs, relative to the case of no fires) of open-fire aerosols including black carbon (BC) and particulate organic matter (POM) from 2003 to 2011. The global annual mean RE from aerosol–radiation interactions (REari) of all fire aerosols is 0.16 ± 0.01 W m−2 (1σ uncertainty), mainly due to the absorption of fire BC (0.25 ± 0.01 W m−2), while fire POM induces a small effect (−0.05 and 0.04 ± 0.01 W m−2 based on two different methods). Strong positive REari is found in the Arctic and in the oceanic regions west of southern Africa and South America as a result of amplified absorption of fire BC above low-level clouds, in general agreement with satellite observations. The global annual mean RE due to aerosol–cloud interactions (REaci) of all fire aerosols is −0.70 ± 0.05 W m−2, resulting mainly from the fire POM effect (−0.59 ± 0.03 W m−2). REari (0.43 ± 0.03 W m−2) and REaci (−1.38 ± 0.23 W m−2) in the Arctic are stronger than in the tropics (0.17 ± 0.02 and −0.82 ± 0.09 W m−2 for REari and REaci), although the fire aerosol burden is higher in the tropics. The large cloud liquid water path over land areas and low solar zenith angle of the Arctic favor the strong fire aerosol REaci (up to −15 W m−2) during the Arctic summer. Significant surface cooling, precipitation reduction and increasing amounts of low-level cloud are also found in the Arctic summer as a result of the fire aerosol REaci based on the atmosphere-only simulations. The global annual mean RE due to surface-albedo changes (REsac) over land areas (0.03 ± 0.10 W m−2) is small and statistically insignificant and is mainly due to the fire BC-in-snow effect (0.02 W m−2) with the maximum albedo effect occurring in spring (0.12 W m−2) when snow starts to melt.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Hysteretic temperature sensitivity of wetland CH 4 fluxes explained by substrate availability and microbial activity

Methane (CH 4 ) emissions from wetlands are likely increasing and important in global climate change assessments. However, contemporary terrestrial biogeochemical model predictions of CH 4 emissions are very uncertain, at least in part due to prescribed temperature sensitivity of CH 4 production and emission. While statistically consistent apparent CH 4 emission temperature dependencies have been inferred from meta-analyses across microbial to ecosystem scales, year-round ecosystem-scale observations have contradicted that finding. Here, we show that apparent CH 4 emission temperature dependencies inferred from year-round chamber measurements exhibit substantial intra-seasonal variability, suggesting that using static temperature relations to predict CH 4 emissions is mechanistically flawed. Our model results indicate that such intra-seasonal variability is driven by substrate-mediated microbial and abiotic interactions: seasonal cycles in substrate availability favors CH 4 production later in the season, leading to hysteretic temperature sensitivity of CH 4 production and emission. Our findings demonstrate the uncertainty of inferring CH 4 emission or production rates from temperature alone and highlight the need to represent microbial and abiotic interactions in wetland biogeochemical models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Atmospheric River Tracking Method Intercomparison Project (ARTMIP): project goals and experimental design

The Atmospheric River Tracking Method Intercomparison Project (ARTMIP) is an international collaborative effort to understand and quantify the uncertainties in atmospheric river (AR) science based on detection algorithm alone. Currently, there are many AR identification and tracking algorithms in the literature with a wide range of techniques and conclusions. ARTMIP strives to provide the community with information on different methodologies and provide guidance on the most appropriate algorithm for a given science question or region of interest. All ARTMIP participants will implement their detection algorithms on a specified common dataset for a defined period of time. The project is divided into two phases: Tier 1 will utilize the Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications, version 2 (MERRA-2) reanalysis from January 1980 to June 2017 and will be used as a baseline for all subsequent comparisons. Participation in Tier 1 is required. Tier 2 will be optional and include sensitivity studies designed around specific science questions, such as reanalysis uncertainty and climate change. High-resolution reanalysis and/or model output will be used wherever possible. Proposed metrics include AR frequency, duration, intensity, and precipitation attributable to ARs. Here, we present the ARTMIP experimental design, timeline, project requirements, and a brief description of the variety of methodologies in the current literature. Furthermore, we also present results from our 1-month proof-of-concept trial run designed to illustrate the utility and feasibility of the ARTMIP project.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Is CO2 capable to keeping early Mars warm?

One of the goals of NASA's Exobiology Research Program is to determine whether life exists today on Mars (unlikely) or whether it might have existed there at some time in the past (more likely). Speculation about extinct life is driven by the observation of channels on the Martian surface, thought to indicate the past presence of liquid water and, hence, the existence of a warmer climate. Current thinking suggests that such a climate could have been maintained if early Mars had a dense CO2 atmosphere with a surface pressure of 1 to 5 bars. One of the phenomena that Martian climate modelers have not looked at very carefully is the process of CO2 condensation. Reexamination of some of my own calculations indicates that condensation should occur at high altitudes in some high-CO2, Martian atmospheres, particularly those in which the solar constant is set to its initial main sequence value (about 70 percent of present. CO2 condensation should affect the surface temperature in two ways: (1) if it occurs in the convective lower atmosphere, condensation will reduce the magnitude of the greenhouse effect by decreasing the lapse rate; and (2) condensation at any altitude will produce clouds, which can either warm or cool the climate depending on their altitude and optical depth. Preliminary calculations with a 1-D, radiative-convective climate model indicate that the lapse rate change is substantial for low solar luminosity models. Other aspects of this study are discussed.

Kasting, J. F.↗

Atmospheric, climatic and environmental research

Work performed on the three tasks during the report period is summarized. The climate and atmospheric modeling studies included work on climate model development and applications, paleoclimate studies, climate change applications, and SAGE II. Climate applications of Earth and planetary observations included studies on cloud climatology and planetary studies. Studies on the chemistry of the Earth and the environment are briefly described. Publications based on the above research are listed; two of these papers are included in the appendices.

Broecker, Wallace S.↗

Observational and modeling studies of the influence of sea ice anomalies on atmospheric circulation

The effects of sea ice on short-term climate variability are studied by comparing the speculated and model-derived climatic roles of sea ice with the observational evidence. It is concluded that sea ice variations have large local impacts on the lower atmosphere which can be useful in local forecasting at the 30-90 day range. Observational studies are found to be severely constrained by the fact that atmospheric forcing plays a major role in the development of sea ice anomalies. Global climate models exhibit significant sensitivities to large changes of sea ice coverage. While the responses of different models are similar in many respects, there are inconsistencies among the models in the changes of some fundamental variables.

Walsh, John E.↗

The effect of polar caps on obliquity

Rubincam has shown that the Martian obliquity is dependent on the seasonal polar caps. In particular, Rubincam analytically derived this dependence and showed that the change in obliquity is directly proportional to the seasonal polar cap mass. Rubincam concludes that seasonal friction does not appear to have changed Mars' climate significantly. Using a computer model for the evolution of the Martian atmosphere, Haberle et al. have made a convincing case for the possibility of huge polar caps, about 10 times the mass of the current polar caps, that exist for a significant fraction of the planet's history. Since Rubincam showed that the effect of seasonal friction on obliquity is directly proportional to polar cap mass, a scenario with a ten-fold increase in polar cap mass over a significant fraction of the planet's history would result in a secular increase in Mars' obliquity of perhaps 10 degrees. Hence, the Rubincam conclusion of an insignificant contribution to Mars' climate by seasonal friction may be incorrect. Furthermore, if seasonal friction is an important consideration in the obliquity of Mars, this would significantly alter the predictions of past obliquity.

Lindner, B. L.↗

Sensitivity of the Tropical Ocean-Atmosphere to Seasonal and Long-Term Climate Forcing

Since the pioneer works of Bjerknes (1966,1969) many studies have been conducted to understand the El Nino and Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon. These studies have led to a basic understanding of the dynamics of El Nino. Central to the couple dynamics of ENSO is the delayed action oscillator theory (Suarez and Schopf 1988), which successfully describes the cyclic feature of El Nino. While the oscillatory feature of El Nino is reasonably well understood, the irregularity of El Nino, the effect of monsoon on ENSO, and the response of coupled system to the global warming are still under debate. In the present study, we attempt to provide some theoretical understanding of possible impacts of seasonal cycle, monsoon, and climate changes on ENSO using intermediate coupled model.

Kim, K.-M.↗

The State of Scientific Visualization with Regard to the NASA EOS Mission to Planet Earth

In support of the mission to better understand the dynamics of the global atmosphere, John R. Christy and Nathaniel D. Reynolds investigated a wide range of topics. Christy worked closely with NASA scientist Roy Spencer to develop a data set of precision temperature measurements using the NASA built Microwave Sounding Unit. The data from this effort has received international recognition as they provide a source of precise information for the most difficult of environmental issues in the global climate change arena. In addition, Christy coordinated modeling research with NASA scientist Franklin Robertson with research focusing on the validation of global model output using various satellite data with sophisticated statistical techniques. Reynolds worked with NASA scientist Timothy Miller on idealized flows in a rotating annulus and the application of the results to the general circulation of the atmosphere. Additional work was carried out in investigation of stratospheric ozone fluctuations due to dynamical causes.

Christy, John R.↗

BOREAS TGB-5 CO2, CH4 and CO Chamber Flux Data Over the NSA

The BOReal Ecosystem-Atmosphere Study Trace Gas Biogeochemistry (BOREAS TGB-5) team collected a variety of trace gas concentration and flux measurements at several NSA sites. This data set contains carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4), and carbon monoxide (CO) chamber flux measurements conducted in 1994 at upland forest sites that experienced stand-replacement fires. These measurements were acquired to understand the impact of fires on soil biogeochemistry and related changes in trace gas exchange in boreal forest soils. Relevant ancillary data, including data concerning the soil temperature, solar irradiance, and information from nearby un-burned control sites, are included to provide a basis for modeling the regional impacts of fire and climate changes on trace gas biogeochemistry. The data are provided in tabular ASCII files.

Burke, Roger↗

Cloud Coverage Enhancement and Nocturnal Drizzle Suppression in Stratocumulus by Aerosols

Recent satellite observations of ship tracks surprisingly indicate that cloud water decreases with increasing droplet concentrations. However, we find by analyzing detailed simulations of stratocumulus that the reported trend is likely an artifact of sampling, only overcast clouds. The simulations instead show cloud coverage increasing with droplet concentrations, accounting for 25% of cloud albedo increase at moderate droplet concentrations. Our simulations also show that increases in cloud water from drizzle suppression (by increasing droplet concentrations) are favored only at night or at extremely low droplet concentrations, suggesting that the indirect aerosol forcing is overestimated in climate change projections by many general circulation models.

Ackerman, Andrew S.↗

Aerosol Direct Radiative Effect at the Top of the Atmosphere Over Cloud Free Ocean Derived from Four Years of MODIS Data

A four year record of MODIS spaceborne data provides a new measurement tool to assess the aerosol direct radiative effect at the top of the atmosphere. MODIS derives the aerosol optical thickness and microphysical properties from the scattered sunlight at 0.55-2.1 microns. The monthly MODIS data used here are accumulated measurements across a wide range of view and scattering angles and represent the aerosol s spectrally resolved angular properties. We use these data consistently to compute with estimated accuracy of +/-0.6W/sq m the reflected sunlight by the aerosol over global oceans in cloud free conditions. The MODIS high spatial resolution (0.5 km) allows observation of the aerosol impact between clouds that can be missed by other sensors with larger footprints. We found that over the clear-sky global ocean the aerosol reflected 5.3+/-0.6W/sq m with an average radiative efficiency of 49+/-2W/sq m per unit optical thickness. The seasonal and regional distribution of the aerosol radiative effects are discussed. The analysis adds a new measurement perspective to a climate change problem dominated so far by models.

Remer, L. A.↗

An Ozone Increase in the Antarctic Summer Stratosphere: A Dynamical Response to the Ozone Hole

Profiles of ozone concentration retrieved from the SBUV series of satellites show an increase between 1979 and 1997 in the summertime Antarctic middle stratosphere (approx. 25-10 hPa). Data over the South Pole from ozone sondes confirm the increase. A similar ozone increase is produced in a chemistry climate model that allows feedback between constituent changes and the stratospheric circulation through radiative heating. A simulation that excludes the radiative coupling between predicted ozone and the circulation does not capture this ozone increase. We show that the ozone increase in our model simulations is caused by a dynamical feedback in response to the changes in the stratospheric wind fields forced by the radiative perturbation associated with the Antarctic ozone hole.

Stolarski, R. S.↗

Understanding Arctic Surface Temperature Differences in Reanalyses

Reanalyses in the Arctic are widely used for model evaluation and for understanding contemporary climate change. Nevertheless, differences among reanalyses in fundamental meteorological variables including surface air temperature are large. A review of surface temperature differences is presented with a particular focus on differences in contemporary reanalyses. An important consideration is the significant differences in Arctic surfaces, including the central Arctic Ocean, the Greenland Ice Sheet, and non-glaciated land. While there is significant correlation among reanalyses in annual time series, there is substantial disagreement in mean values. For the period 1980-2013, the trend in annual temperature ranges from 0.3 to 0.7K per decade. Over the central Arctic Ocean, differences in mean values and trends are larger. Most of the uncertainty is associated with winter months. This is likely associated with the constraint imposed by melting processes (i.e. 0 deg. Celsius), rather than seasonal changes to the observing system.

Sea Ic↗

Overview of the SPARC Reanalysis Intercomparison Project (S-RIP) during 2013-2020

The Stratosphere-troposphere Processes And their Role in Climate (SPARC) project is one of the four core projects of the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP). Researchers interested in SPARC use global atmospheric reanalysis products to understand a wide range of processes and variability in the atmosphere, to validate chemistry climate models, and to investigate and identify climate change. The SPARC Reanalysis Intercomparison Project (S-RIP) was initiated in 2011 and officially started in 2013 to conduct a coordinated intercomparison of all major global atmospheric reanalysis data sets. The S-RIP has been aiming at writing up an assessment report in the SPARC report series (to be published by the end of 2020) (1) on overall quality of temperature, winds, ozone, and water vapor data, (2) on more process- and region-oriented evaluation of the Brewer–Dobson circulation, extratropical stratosphere-troposphere coupling, extratropical upper troposphere and lower stratosphere, the tropical tropopause layer, the quasi-biennial oscillation, polar processes, and the upper stratosphere and lower mesosphere, and (3) with a coordinated description of the reanalysis systems. We also have an inter-journal special issue on "The SPARC Reanalysis Intercomparison Project (S-RIP)" in Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics (ACP) and Earth System Science Data (ESSD). In the presentation, we will discuss key findings and recommendations as well as the evaluation of this rst phase of the S-RIP activity.

Masatomo Fujiwara↗