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At least 1,405 records · Page 78

Multi-Model Assessment of Global Hydropower and Cooling Water Discharge Potential Under Climate Change

Worldwide, 98% of total electricity is currently produced by thermoelectric power and hydropower. Climate change is expected to directly impact electricity supply, in terms of both water availability for hydropower generation and cooling water usage for thermoelectric power. Improved understanding of how climate change may impact the availability and temperature of water resources is therefore of major importance. Here we use a multi-model ensemble to show the potential impacts of climate change on global hydropower and cooling water discharge potential. For the first time, combined projections of streamflow and water temperature were produced with three global hydrological models (GHMs) to account for uncertainties in the structure and parametrization of these GHMs in both water availability and water temperature. The GHMs were forced with bias-corrected output of five general circulation models (GCMs) for both the lowest and highest representative concentration pathways (RCP2.6 and RCP8.5). The ensemble projections of streamflow and water temperature were then used to quantify impacts on gross hydropower potential and cooling water discharge capacity of rivers worldwide. We show that global gross hydropower potential is expected to increase between +2.4% (GCM-GHM ensemble mean for RCP 2.6) and +6.3% (RCP 8.5) for the 2080s compared to 1971-2000. The strongest increases in hydropower potential are expected for Central Africa, India, central Asia and the northern high-latitudes, with 18-33% of the world population living in these areas by the 2080s. Global mean cooling water discharge capacity is projected to decrease by 4.5-15% (2080s). The largest reductions are found for the United States, Europe, eastern Asia, and southern parts of South America, Africa and Australia, where strong water temperature increases are projected combined with reductions in mean annual streamflow. These regions are expected to affect 11-14% (for RCP2.6 and the shared socioeconomic pathway (SSP)1, SSP2, SSP4) and 41-51% (RCP8.5-SSP3, SSP5) of the world population by the 2080s.

global hydrological models↗

Assessing geothermal/solar hybridization – Integrating a solar thermal topping cycle into a geothermal bottoming cycle with energy storage

Geothermal and concentrating solar power (CSP) technologies typically use heat at different temperatures in their commercial deployments. This enables a technically viable hybridization of a solar topping cycle and a geothermal bottoming cycle at locations where both resources are available. In this article, an underperforming geothermal power system based at Burley, Idaho is used as a baseline to investigate the technical and economic potential of such a hybrid cycle. A direct thermal energy storage (TES) system is also integrated to overcome the intermittency of the solar resource. Design and off-design behavior of key components are modelled to simulate the annual performance of the hybrid system on an hourly basis. The sizing of the solar field and thermal storage is investigated and is seen to significantly impact the annual electricity generation and efficiency. Various cost scenarios for the solar field and thermal energy storage are investigated. An economic metric - levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) - is used to optimize the solar field sizing and TES capacity. The hybrid plant converts the additional solar heat input into additional work with an efficiency of 32.9%. Retrofitting a geothermal plant with solar and eight hours of energy storage can achieve an LCOE of 0.136 $/kWhe in current cost scenarios and 0.081 $/kWhe in a future cost reduction scenario. Although the hybrid system cannot directly compete with current PV systems without batteries, it has an LCOE 32% lower than that of a PV-battery system. This paper provides insights into the research and development of the future grid with a high renewable energy penetration and encourages further study of energy hybridization for improved efficiencies and economics.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

TPCPF: Three-Phase Continuation Power Flow Tool for Voltage Stability Assessment of Distribution Networks With Distributed Energy Resources

This article presents a three-phase unbalanced continuation power flow algorithm for voltage stability assessment of distribution systems with high penetration of distributed energy resources (DERs). Analyzing distribution system voltage stability with DER will allow high penetration of renewable energy necessary for the sustainability goals. The developed algorithm can analyze voltage stability for both the meshed and radial systems and the balanced and unbalanced three-phase distribution systems. The developed tool allows the voltage stability analysis to facilitate the planning, operation, control, and distribution system management. The impact of DER on the voltage stability of several test cases has been analyzed considering constant power (P Q) and regulated-voltage (P V ) modes of operation for DER units. Moreover, different voltage stability case studies are presented to demonstrate the impact of unbalance, load increment, and network topology on the maximum loading capacity. Finally, results using the IEEE 13-node feeder, the 18-bus balanced shipboard system, the 13-node CIGRE benchmark system, and the 136-bus redial distribution feeder demonstrate that the developed continuation power flow tool can efficiently perform voltage stability analysis for active distribution systems.

42 ENGINEERING↗

The Renewable Energy Potential (reV) Model: A Geospatial Platform for Technical Potential and Supply Curve Modeling

The Renewable Energy Potential (reV) model is a platform for detailed assessment of renewable energy (RE) resources and their geospatial intersection with grid infrastructure and land use characteristics. The reV model currently supports photovoltaic (PV), concentrating solar power (CSP) and land-based wind turbine technologies. Modules in the reV framework function at different spatial and temporal resolutions, allowing for assessment of resource potential, technical potential and supply curves at varying levels of detail. The platform runs on NREL's High Performance Computing system, providing scalable and efficient performance from a single location all the way up to continental scales, for a single year or decades of time series resource data. Coupled with NREL's System Advisor Model (SAM), reV supports resource assessment from 5-minute to hourly temporal resolution and provides for analysis of long-term (i.e., year-on-year) variability of RE generation (e.g., interannual variability and exceedance probabilities). Technical potential is measured as a function of resource potential and limitations put on developable land area defined by the user. For example, the user can limit development by land ownership, terrain, land use/cover, and urban areas, as well as custom inputs. Technology, grid interconnection and operation costs, based on the latest market data and future projections, are also embedded in the model. The supply curve module is a spatial sorting algorithm based on plant siting, grid interconnection cost, and regional competition, which provides a geographically discrete estimate of levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) and supply (i.e., capacity) for specific renewable technologies. The reV model currently provides broad coverage across North America, South and Central Asia, South America and South Africa to inform national- and international-scale analyses as well as regional infrastructure and deployment planning.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗

Enhanced convection for higher module and system efficiency (Final Technical Report)

The goal of this work is to develop new solar photovoltaic (PV) modules and solar system-scale designs that promote an increase of the convective heat transfer coefficient of at least 40%, reducing the operating temperature of the solar PV panels, and leading to a boost on the annual energy yield by at least 5%. By achieving this goal, we further foresee decreasing solar panel degradation by +0.3%/year, reducing the LCOE by 2.9-4.5¢/kWh. Currently, this question and/or approach is not considered though it is a relevant factor in performance/efficiency. The technology proposed will be at a mature stage by the end of the project and could be aligned to be proven on a full-field test. PV users, installers and manufacturers will be interested in the technology due to the aforementioned benefits. The work was conducted through a suite of wind tunnel experiments, numerical simulations and field experiments. These were then evaluated through a correlation encompassing the entire data set and implementing findings into NREL SAM. The work resulted in eight peer reviewed publications with three others in preparation. The key results of the project are 1.) Showing the capability of increasing the solar farm power production by increasing the heat transfer coefficient; 2.) Providing strategies for achieving this through large scale arrangement manipulation (heights, spacings, angles), flow deflectors and vortex generators; 3.) Demonstrating scalability of results by comparing numerical simulations, wind tunnel experiments and field experiments; 4.) Providing a correlation to be able to capture the various arrangements while exploiting the heat transfer coefficient; and 5.) Proving the feasibility of such strategies and their capacity through a comprehensive techno-economic analysis. For the heat transfer coefficients, gains of 40% were attained and increases in power in the excess of 5% were observed. For heat mitigation strategies, consideration at the PV array scale were inter-panel spacing, panel height and panel angles while at the module level, wind breaks such as solid walls and selected gaps were evaluated as well as vortex generators on the panel. All proposed strategies saw an increase in heat transfer coefficient. For scalability, results were compared against field experiments and a correlation for the heat transfer quantity was attained leading to a parametric understanding of the variations and impact in the heat transfer coefficient independent of tools implemented (wind tunnel/numerical simulations). The strategies were also further assessed by a technoeconomic analysis finding improvements based on LCOE with respect to location (several states with varies atmospheric conditions/geographic locations) yielded different results. Improvements on this end were also observed especially towards the colder climates and when considering bi-facial modules. The quantitative demonstrations of such conclusions are provided in the main portion of this document with complementary results and their narration. Milestones and go/no-go points were successfully met in the project.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Terrestrial case studies of ilmenite exploration and lunar implications

The Space Exploration Initiative (SEI) includes space resource utilization as one of the four architectures to achieve U.S. goals in space. Space resource utilization will make use of lunar resources to support long term activities on the lunar surface. Lunar ilmenite and regolith are two of the materials that can be mined and processed for lunar oxygen production. During this investigation, several sources were reviewed to assess terrestrial exploration methods used for locating ilmenite resources. These sources included published reports on terrestrial ilmenite exploration methods, analytical methods, case histories, chemical and physical properties, and associations with other minerals. Using a terrestrial analog and considering the differences between terrestrial and lunar environmental conditions, rocks, and minerals, exploration methods and analytical instruments can be recommended for a lunar orbiter and lander for assessing lunar resources. Twelve terrestrial case histories were reviewed to gain insight into ilmenite exploration on the Moon. All exploration case histories follow the same pattern. They begin with a model, use remote geophysical techniques, define regional sampling sites from the model and geophysics, narrow down the area of exploration based on the preceding work, collect more samples and cores, and perform laboratory analyses of samples. An important part of this process is the collection of samples to determine the correctness of the model. Surface and core samples are collected in areas expected to contain both high and low concentration of the commodity to test the model. After samples are analyzed and the area of mineralization is defined, reserves are calculated to determine the cost/benefit ratio, the necessary capacity of the processing plant, and the life of the mine. The exploration methods used for locating terrestrial ilmenite resources are reviewed with respect to the petrology, chemistry, and mineral associations of the terrestrial and lunar environments.

Feldman, S. C.↗

WISE 2005: LBNP Exercise and Flywheel Resistive Exercise as an Effective Countermeasure Combination

Long-term exposure to microgravity can cause a severe musculoskeletal loss and cardiovascular deconditioning in astronauts. In this report, the effectiveness of combined supine treadmill exercise in a lower body negative pressure chamber (LBNPex) and flywheel resistive exercise (Rex) countermeasures was determined to prevent bone loss, reduced aerobic upright exercise capacity and reduced muscle strength. We hypothesized that exercise subjects (EX) would show less decrease in bone mineral density (BMD), peak oxygen consumption (VO2pk) and knee extensor strength (KES) than control subjects (CON). Sixteen healthy female subjects (34 plus or minus 4yrs, 164 plus or minus 6.5cm, 58 plus or minus 5kg; mean plus or minus SD) participated in a 60-d 6 degree head-down tilt bed rest (BR) study after providing written informed consent. Subjects were assigned to one of two groups: a non- exercising CON group or an EX group performing LBNPex 2-4 d/wk and Rex every 3rd-d. VO2pk was measured with a maximal, graded, upright treadmill test performed pre-BR and on 3-d after BR. BMD was assessed pre-BR and 3-d after BR by dual energy x-ray absorptiometry total body DEXA scan (DEXA; HOLOGIC QDR 4500 Elite ). A Cybex dynamometer was employed to measure the isokinetic KES before and 5-d after BR. Two-way repeated measures ANOVA were performed with time as the repeated factor. Statistical significance was set at p less than 0.05. CON experienced a significant decrease in BMD in the trochanter (PRE: 0.670 0.045; POST: 0.646 0.352 g(raised dot) per square centimeter) and in the whole hip (PRE: 0.894 0.059; POST: 0.858 0.057 g(raised dot) per square centimeter). BMD also decreased significantly in EX in the trochanter (PRE: 0.753 plus or minus 0.0617; POST: 0.741 plus or minus 0.061 g(raised dot) per square centimeter) and whole hip (PRE: 0.954 plus or minus 0.067; POST: 0.935 plus or minus 0.069 g(raised dot) per square centimeter). BMD losses were significantly less in EX than in CON subjects. VO2pk was significantly decreased in the CON after BR (PRE: 38.0 plus or minus 4.8; POST: 29.9 plus or minus 4.2 ml(raised dot) per kilogram per minute), but not in the EX (PRE: 39.0 plus or minus 2.0; POST: 37.8 plus or minus 1.9 ml(raised dot) per kilogram per minute). KES was significantly reduced by 30% in CON (PRE: 113 plus or minus 12; POST: 78 plus or minus 8 N-m), but was not different in EX (PRE: 126 plus or minus 25; POST: 115 plus or minus 25 N-m). The combination LBNPex and Rex during 60-d BR protects against cardiovascular and musculoskeletal deconditioning and may be an efficacious countermeasure for prolonged space flight.

Meuche, S.↗

Detection of Unexpected High Correlations between Balance Calibration Loads and Load Residuals

An algorithm was developed for the assessment of strain-gage balance calibration data that makes it possible to systematically investigate potential sources of unexpected high correlations between calibration load residuals and applied calibration loads. The algorithm investigates correlations on a load series by load series basis. The linear correlation coefficient is used to quantify the correlations. It is computed for all possible pairs of calibration load residuals and applied calibration loads that can be constructed for the given balance calibration data set. An unexpected high correlation between a load residual and a load is detected if three conditions are met: (i) the absolute value of the correlation coefficient of a residual/load pair exceeds 0.95; (ii) the maximum of the absolute values of the residuals of a load series exceeds 0.25 % of the load capacity; (iii) the load component of the load series is intentionally applied. Data from a baseline calibration of a six-component force balance is used to illustrate the application of the detection algorithm to a real-world data set. This analysis also showed that the detection algorithm can identify load alignment errors as long as repeat load series are contained in the balance calibration data set that do not suffer from load alignment problems.

strain-gage balance↗

Marin County Wildfires Ii: Improving Fire Suppression Modeling to Inform Fire Prevention and Suppression Decisions in Marin County, Ca

A future of increased wildfires requires greater integration of spatial analysis and local knowledge of emergency responders. We examine the application of a Potential Operational Delineations (PODs) framework for strategic pre-fire planning in Marin County. PODs are spatial units for wildfire management that combine predictive modeling and local firefighter expertise to identify potential control locations as unit boundaries and assess the difficulty of suppression within units. Additionally, this project explores the integration of road networks and social vulnerability to assess environmental justice in evacuation safety. This project constitutes a novel application of the PODs framework as it integrates expertise from Marin County senior firefighters with a Fireline Location Model (FLM) to achieve POD definition and uses a Suppression Difficulty Score (SDS) to rank each POD. The FLM uses network analysis and hydrologic modeling to identify key roads and ridgelines as boundaries and combines them with expert knowledge, in the form of workshops, to construct PODs. Once identified, PODs are classified using SDS, which includes processed inputs such as LiDAR-derived aboveground biomass, ECOSTRESS Evaporative Stress Index, land use cover type from Sentinel-2 Imagery, and a digital elevation model. Environmental justice for evacuation safety incorporated three key road metrics such as connectivity, travel area, and exit capacity, the Social Vulnerability Index from the Center for Disease Control, and cell coverage to determine a final Evacuation Difficulty Score. Results indicate a strong link between road networks as primary POD boundaries, with ridgelines and waterways as secondary and tertiary locations. Specifically, we find 78.5% of expertise-identified POD boundaries align with FLM-determined boundaries. More validation is needed to support this process; however, initial results signal a feasible framework to integrate expertise and spatial analysis in local level strategic fire planning

Wildfire modeling↗

Postural Effects on Intracranial Pressure as Assessed Noninvasively

This study was designed to investigate effects of whole body tilting on intracranial compliance and pressure in six healthy volunteers by using a noninvasive ultrasonic device. Subjects were randomly tilted up or down sequentially at 60 degree, 30 degree head-up, supine, and 15 degree head-down position for one minute at each angle. We measured arterial blood pressure with a finger pressure cuff and changes in intracranial distance with an ultrasonic device. The device measures skull movement on the order of micro-meter. Our ultrasound technique demonstrates that skull movement is highly correlated (r$(circumflex){2}$=0.77) with intracranial pressure variations due to cerebral arterial pulsation. The amplitudes of arterial pressure (r$(circumflex){2}$=0.99 and those of intracranial distance changes (r$(circumflex){2}$=0.87) associated with one cardiac cycle were inversely correlated with the angle of tilt. The ratio of pulsation amplitudes for intracranial distance over arterial pressure also showed a significant increase as the angle of tilt was lowered (p=0.003). Thus, postural changes alter intracranial compliance in healthy volunteers and intracranial volume-buffering capacity is reduced in head-down position.

Ueno, Toshiaki↗

EERC Final Topical Report – Findings on Subtask 3.2 – Produced Water Management Through Geologic Homogenization, Conditions, and Reuse

The Energy & Environmental Research Center (EERC) was awarded a contract by the North Dakota Industrial Commission (NDIC) Oil and Gas Research Program (NDIC No. G-051-101) to conduct a study on the recycling of water used in oil and gas operations, also known as produced water, from oil- and gas-producing regions of North Dakota as directed by Section 19 of North Dakota House Bill 1014. This final report provides a compilation of results of the study, which include regulatory, scientific, technological, and feasibility methods and considerations associated with North Dakota produced water management. The report provides a synopsis of this project’s previously submitted produced water assessment report entitled “Produced Water Management and Recycling Options in North Dakota” (Energy & Environmental Research Center, 2020), with updated values provided as appropriate. The report provides the results from the investigation of a novel produced water management strategy, referred to as geologic homogenization, conditioning, and reuse (GHCR), which aims to use a subsurface geologic formation as a natural medium for managing produced water recycling and reuse. Water management is a significant technical and economic challenge for sustainable oil and gas production, and water volumes are intrinsically linked to oil production volumes. North Dakota oil production rose to over 1.5 million barrels (MMbbl)/day in 2019, and despite a downturn in oil price in early 2020, North Dakota oil production has recovered to 1.1 MMbbl/day as of August 2021. Bakken petroleum system development between 2008 and 2020 has resulted in a nearly fourfold increase in produced water volumes to 642 MMbbl/yr in 2020 after peaking at 740 MMbbl/yr in 2019 and a fivefold increase in saltwater disposal (SWD) volumes to 565 MMbbl/yr in 2020 after a peak of 682 MMbbl/yr in 2019. Produced water and SWD volumes are forecasted to double by 2030. SWD is the primary method of produced water management used in North Dakota, with approximately 95% of the SWD volume occurring through subsurface injection into sandstones of the Dakota Group (Dakota). Localized pressurization of the Dakota resulting from SWD and projected increases in produced water volumes could impact the economics of North Dakota oil production. As a result, there is an emerging need to pursue alternative produced water management approaches, including recycling and reuse. While produced water recycling is not yet widespread, commercial operators are making strides in overcoming the technical challenges of using high salinity produced water in completion operations (Marathon Oil, 2020). As water management continues to be a key focal point in companies’ environmental, social, and governance (ESG) initiatives, focus on water management, including recycling, will likely continue to increase. Laboratory column testing, field sample collection, geologic modeling and numerical simulation, and techno-economic analysis all indicate that GHCR could feasibly be implemented as a potential water management option. Laboratory column testing and field sample collection indicate that the Inyan Kara sandstone and native formation fluid are capable of homogenizing with the Bakken produced water to a point where the fluid composition appears to stabilize. Extracting that stabilized fluid could be considered homogeneous and capable of providing individual batches of hydraulic fracturing fluid. Numerical simulation results indicate that extraction of fluids from the Inyan Kara in a GHCR implementation scenario is capable of reducing formation pressure, which would help ease localized pressurization of the Inyan Kara and extend the available capacity for nearby existing SWD wells. Economic analysis indicates that there are scenarios where GHCR implementation can be a competitive or even lower-cost option than a conventional water management approach. Site-specific conditions will dictate the economic potential of GHCR, but potentially attractive sites for GHCR implementation will be those that are located above a pressurized zone of the Inyan Kara, need six or more Bakken infill wells, and face high costs for conventional SWD and/or freshwater. Based on the regulatory review, drilling into the Inyan Kara for SWD and to harness as a source water for industrial use have precedent in North Dakota, and a workable regulatory solution for GHCR seems likely. However, restrictions in the state regarding surface storage and transport of produced fluids may limit some activities, which will affect how GHCR could ultimately be implemented. In summary, this study reveals pursuing GHCR can be a viable approach to water management in North Dakota. The GHCR concept addresses some of the challenges that hinder the more traditional approaches to recycling in the industry. Furthermore, an assessment of the current landscape of water management within the state reveals the ongoing trend of increasing volumes of produced water and SWD. Projections reveal that the volumes of produced water that need to be managed are expected to double over the next decade (Energy & Environmental Research Center, 2020). With the continued development of the Bakken and continuing driving factors related to ESG initiatives, implementing a practice such as GHCR is a feasible approach to adding recycling of produced water to industry within the state. This subtask was cofunded through the EERC–U.S. Department of Energy Joint Program on Research and Development for Fossil Energy-Related Resources Cooperative Agreement No. DE-FE0024233. Nonfederal funding was provided by the North Dakota Industrial Commission Oil and Gas Research Program. References Energy & Environmental Research Center, 2020, Produced water management and recycling options in North Dakota: Final Report for North Dakota Legislative Management Energy Development and Transmission Committee and North Dakota Industrial Commission. Marathon Oil, 2020, Sustainability report: https://cdn.sanity.io/files/ghcnw9z2/website/ 91744eb6ef8fbe59505a911c6b8d2e8dd9a537fa.pdf?dl (accessed November 2021).

02 PETROLEUM↗

Assessment of Offshore Wind Energy Leasing Areas for Humboldt and Morro Bay Wind Energy Areas, California

The National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) is providing scientific and technical services to the Bureau of Ocean Energy Management (BOEM) under an interagency agreement. The purpose of this report is to provide technical assistance in delineating potential lease areas from the California wind energy areas (WEAs) that can be competitively auctioned to wind energy developers. Each wind energy area is presumed to be technically and economically feasible for wind energy development based on the economic cost study performed by NREL in 2020. The subsequent analysis summarized in this report is intended to help BOEM maximize efficient offshore wind energy resource use and ensure fair return to the Government for use of the lease areas, by making recommendations for viable ways to divide the WEAs into auctionable commercial lease areas of approximately equal value. We considered several factors that affect the value of lease areas for wind energy development, including mean wind speeds, water depth, seafloor gradient, seismicity, hard substrate, and access to infrastructure. The largest impact to generating capacity came from the choice of mooring technology and the resulting setback from the lease area boundaries. Based on our setback assumptions, the generating capacity for a wind plant using catenary moorings could be nearly 30% less than with vertical moorings in Humboldt, or approximately 20% less in Morro Bay. The likely range of generating capacity is 1.5 to 3 GW in Humboldt and 3 to 5 GW in Morro Bay.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Modeled Results of Four Residential Energy Efficiency Measure Packages for Deriving Advanced Building Construction Research Targets

The Advanced Building Construction (ABC) Initiative from the U.S. Department of Energy Building Technologies Office is working to accelerate industrialized construction innovations for decarbonizing buildings. To inform performance and cost targets for research under the ABC Initiative, this analysis used the ResStock™ tool to evaluate the energy savings, utility bill impacts, and carbon emissions impacts of four simulated upgrade packages with specific target performance levels on a large sample of residential dwelling units (approximately 550,000) representative of the U.S. housing stock.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Lithium-Ion Verification Test Program

In order to assess the capabilities of current aerospace lithium-ion cells to perform long-term NASA missions, low-earth-orbits (LEO) testing to evaluate long-term cycle life was initiated. A flexible program was developed at NASA Glenn Research Center to enable assessment of technology developments as they occur as well as provide information about different cell vendors and cell designs. Following extensive characterization testing, cells are tested using LEO charge and discharge profiles under ten different combinations of test conditions that were statistically chosen to determine the effects of depth-of-discharge, temperature, and end-of-charge voltage on LEO cycle life. Four cells from each vendor are tested at each specific combination of conditions. Conditions included in the test matrix are depth-of-discharges of 20%, 30, 35%, and 40%; temperatures of 20, 30, and 40 C; and end-of-charge voltages of 3.85 V, 3.95 V, and 4.05 V. Cells are randomly assigned to packs and packs are randomly assigned to test conditions. The capacity of the cells to 3.0 V at the conditions of the test is being periodically measured. The results of this testing will be used to model cell performance and degradation as a function of test operating conditions. Cells are being evaluated in 4-cell series strings with charge voltage limits being applied to individual cells by charge control units designed and built at NASA Glenn Research Center. Testing is being performed at the Naval Surface Warfare Center/Crane Division in Crane, IN. Testing was initiated in September 2004 with 40 Ah cells from Saft and 30 Ah cells from Lithion. The test program is being expanded with the addition of cells from MSA and the addition of small cell modules is being considered. Preliminary results showing voltage, temperature, usable capacity per unit mass, and voltage dispersion as their changes over time for the cells at 20 C is presented.

McKissock, Barbara↗

Gas hydrate petroleum systems: What constitutes the “seal”?

The gas hydrate petroleum system (GHPS) approach, which has been used to characterize gas hydrates in nature, uses three distinct components: a methane source, a methane migration pathway, and a reservoir that not only contains gas hydrate, but also acts as a seal to prevent methane loss. Unlike GHPS, a traditional petroleum system (PS) approach further distinguishes between the reservoir, a unit with generally coarser sediment grains, and a separate overlying seal unit with generally finer sediment grains. Adopting this traditional PS distinction in the GHPS approach facilitates assessments of reservoir growth and production potential. The significance of the seal for the formation of a gas hydrate reservoir as well as for efficiency in methane extraction from the reservoir as an energy resource is evident in findings from recent offshore field expeditions, such as India’s second National Gas Hydrate Program expedition (NGHP-02). In regard to gas hydrate-bearing reservoir formations, the NGHP-02 gas chemistry data indicate a primarily microbial methane source. Fine-grained seal sediment in contact with coarser grained reservoir sediment can facilitate that microbial methane production. Logging-while-drilling and sediment core data also indicate that the overlying fine-grained seal sediment is less permeable than the underlying, highly gas hydrate-saturated reservoir sediment. The overlying seal’s capacity to act as a low-permeability boundary is important not only for preventing methane migration out of the reservoir over time, but also for preventing water invasion into the reservoir during methane extraction from the reservoir. Ultimately, the presence of an overlying, fine-grained, low-permeability “seal” influences how gas hydrate initially forms in a coarse-grained reservoir and dictates how efficiently methane can be extracted as an energy resource from the gas hydrate reservoir via depressurization.

Geochemistry & Geophysics↗

Convective Weather Forecast Accuracy Analysis at Center and Sector Levels

This paper presents a detailed convective forecast accuracy analysis at center and sector levels. The study is aimed to provide more meaningful forecast verification measures to aviation community, as well as to obtain useful information leading to the improvements in the weather translation capacity models. In general, the vast majority of forecast verification efforts over past decades have been on the calculation of traditional standard verification measure scores over forecast and observation data analyses onto grids. These verification measures based on the binary classification have been applied in quality assurance of weather forecast products at the national level for many years. Our research focuses on the forecast at the center and sector levels. We calculate the standard forecast verification measure scores for en-route air traffic centers and sectors first, followed by conducting the forecast validation analysis and related verification measures for weather intensities and locations at centers and sectors levels. An approach to improve the prediction of sector weather coverage by multiple sector forecasts is then developed. The weather severe intensity assessment was carried out by using the correlations between forecast and actual weather observation airspace coverage. The weather forecast accuracy on horizontal location was assessed by examining the forecast errors. The improvement in prediction of weather coverage was determined by the correlation between actual sector weather coverage and prediction. observed and forecasted Convective Weather Avoidance Model (CWAM) data collected from June to September in 2007. CWAM zero-minute forecast data with aircraft avoidance probability of 60% and 80% are used as the actual weather observation. All forecast measurements are based on 30-minute, 60- minute, 90-minute, and 120-minute forecasts with the same avoidance probabilities. The forecast accuracy analysis for times under one-hour showed that the errors in intensity and location for center forecast are relatively low. For example, 1-hour forecast intensity and horizontal location errors for ZDC center were about 0.12 and 0.13. However, the correlation between sector 1-hour forecast and actual weather coverage was weak, for sector ZDC32, about 32% of the total variation of observation weather intensity was unexplained by forecast; the sector horizontal location error was about 0.10. The paper also introduces an approach to estimate the sector three-dimensional actual weather coverage by using multiple sector forecasts, which turned out to produce better predictions. Using Multiple Linear Regression (MLR) model for this approach, the correlations between actual observation and the multiple sector forecast model prediction improved by several percents at 95% confidence level in comparison with single sector forecast.

Wang, Yao↗

Superoxide Dismutase Protects Osteoprogenitors from Irradiation with Low-LET but Not High-LET Species

Ionizing radiation-induced bone loss appears to be a two-stage process: first an early increase in pro-resorption cytokines and increased bone resorption by osteoclasts, followed by a decrease in bone formation by osteoblasts. This results in a net loss of mass in mineralized bone tissue. The molecular mechanisms underlying the imbalance in bone remodeling caused by exposure to radiation are not fully understood. We hypothesized that the radiation-induced rise in reactive oxygen species (ROS) damages osteoblast progenitors, leading to a decrease in number and activity of differentiated progeny. We have shown that a diet high in antioxidant capacity prevents radiation-induced bone loss in adult mice (Schreurs et al. 2016) by reducing the early increase in pro-resotption cytokines. Here, we investigated the damaging effects of radiation exposure on cells in the osteoblast lineage, testing if addition of the exogenous antioxidant enzyme, superoxide dismutase (SOD) can mitigate radiation damage. Osteoprogenitors were grown in vitro from the marrow of 16wk old, male C57Bl/6 mice. Cells were irradiated 3 days after plating (day 0) with either gamma (Cs-137, 0.1-5Gy) or iron (Fe-56, 600 MeV/n, 0.5-2Gy), and then grown until day 10. SOD or vehicle was added 2 hours before irradiation (SOD at 200U/ml), twice a day and up to day 5, for a total of 2 days treatment. Cell behavior was assessed by: (a) colony number (counted on day 7), (b) DNA content (surrogate for cell number) to assess cell growth (percent change between day 3 and day 10) and (c) alkaline phosphatase activity (osteoblast differentiation marker). Results show that SOD protected cells from the adverse effects of low-LET ionizing radiation, but not high-LET radiation. These novel results provide an interesting platform to explore further diverse effects and damages caused by low-LET and high-LET, pointing toward different mechanisms and possible intervention strategies for radiation-induced bone loss.

superoxide dismutase↗

Superoxide Dismutase Protects Osteoprogenitors from Irradiation with Low-LET but Not High-LET Species

Ionizing radiation-induced bone loss appears to be a two-stage process: first an early increase in pro-resorption cytokines and increased bone resorption by osteoclasts, followed by a decrease in bone formation by osteoblasts. This results in a net loss of mass in mineralized bone tissue. The molecular mechanisms underlying the imbalance in bone remodeling caused by exposure to radiation are not fully understood. We hypothesized that the radiation-induced rise in reactive oxygen species (ROS) damages osteoblast progenitors, leading to a decrease in number and activity of differentiated progeny. We have shown that a diet high in antioxidant capacity prevents radiation-induced bone loss in adult mice (Schreurs et al. 2016) by reducing the early increase in pro-resotption cytokines. Here, we investigated the damaging effects of radiation exposure on cells in the osteoblast lineage, testing if addition of the exogenous antioxidant enzyme, superoxide dismutase (SOD) can mitigate radiation damage. Osteoprogenitors were grown in vitro from the marrow of 16-week-old, male C57Bl6 mice. Cells were irradiated 3 days after plating (day 0) with either gamma (137Cs, 0.1-5Gy) or iron (56Fe, 600 MeVn, 0.5-2Gy), and then grown until day 10. SOD or vehicle was added 2 hours before irradiation (SOD at 200Uml), twice a day and up to day 5, for a total of 2 days treatment. Cell behavior was assessed by: (a) colony number (counted on day 7), (b) DNA content (surrogate for cell number) to assess cell growth (percent change between day 3 and day 10) and (c) alkaline phosphatase activity (osteoblast differentiation marker). Results show that SOD protected cells from the adverse effects of low-LET(Linear Energy Transfer) ionizing radiation, but not high-LET radiation. These novel results provide an interesting platform to explore further diverse effects and damages caused by low-LET and high-LET, pointing toward different mechanisms and possible intervention strategies for radiation-induced bone loss.

osteoblasts↗