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At least 1,405 records · Page 78

X-ray absorption spectroscopic study of the alumina supported Fe and FeMo catalysts for methane dehydrogenation

Nanoscale Fe (5%Fe/Al 2 O 3 ) and FeMo (4.5%Fe-0.5%Mo/Al 2 O 3 ) catalysts are prepared by precipitating metal components onto alumina and then reducing in hydrogen at 700 °C for 2 hrs. Here, the catalysts are characterized before and after their exposures to methane at 700 °C, employing ex-situ X-ray absorption spectroscopy (XAS) and X-ray diffraction techniques. XAS data of the as-prepared catalysts shows that, iron precipitates onto alumina as 6L-ferrihydrite, and Mo is present as molybdate (Mo(VI)O 4 2- ). The molybdate, which binds the alumina in the as-prepared FeMo catalyst, is partially reduced to MoO 2 . The reduction of iron to metallic state is incomplete because the ferrous iron binds the alumina, forming hercynite. After several hrs of methane exposure to both the catalysts at 700 °C, a major Fe 3 C and a graphite phase are observed only in the FeMo catalyst. The observation confirms that the Mo promotes more iron to an active Fe metal, a part of that metal converts to Fe 3 C and austenite (Fe x C). Concurrently, the MoO 2 converts to Mo-oxycarbide (MoO x C y ), the latter then carburize to Mo 2 C in the FeMo catalyst. The Fe metal, Mo-oxycarbide and metal carbides are mainly responsible for the conversion of methane to H 2 and carbon. At reaction temperature > 900 °C, the Mo carbide particles agglomerate, and the excess carbon deposits on this agglomerate leading to catalyst deactivation. The deactivated catalyst is regenerated with CO 2 treatment at 1000 °C to restore its initial oxide structure.

30 DIRECT ENERGY CONVERSION↗

An Innovative Fault Impact Analysis Framework for Enhancing Building Operations

The main goal of this paper is to rank building faults based on their impacts on the building energy penalty and occupant thermal comfort penalty considering multiple faults and fault occurrence rates. A fault impact analysis framework is created by incorporating the fault model library with the whole building energy performance simulation (e.g., EnergyPlus used in this study). The fault occurrence rate is introduced as a 'meta' parameter in the simulation. This framework involves three essential aspects of conducting a fault impact analysis: fault constructing, fault simulation, and fault impact analysis. A parametric sensitivity analysis was used to determine and rank the criticality of the faults considering the fault concurrence frequency, by using the deep-learning based response surface model (i.e., the multi-layer perceptron regression). The proposed fault analysis framework with ranking was tested and demonstrated for the DOE's prototype medium-sized office in four different climate zones (i.e., Atlanta, Chicago, Miami, and San Francisco) with 12,000 EnergyPlus fault simulations. A total of 129 fault modes from 41 groups of fault models were simulated for the medium-sized office case. The results demonstrate the proposed framework is robust and scalable for the fault impact analysis. The top critical fault for the medium-sized office is the fault of HVAC-Left-ON for the packaged rooftop unit, regarding the site energy, source energy, and HVAC energy. Excluding the fault of HVAC-Left-ON, the top critical faults vary significantly among the four climate zones.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Benefits of Dual Fuel Heat Pump Grid-responsive Control: A Model-based Control Optimization Approach Using Building and Equipment Co-simulation

Conventional dual fuel heat pumps lack the intelligent control mechanisms to efficiently manage the switch between heat pump and furnace, leading to sub-optimal energy usage and, in some cases, increased operating costs. To resolve this gap, this study applies optimized control on hybrid heat pumps. With a focus on equipment control strategies, we compare the performances of five spacing heating equipment, including a conventional heat pump (HP), a conventional furnace, a dual fuel heat pump (DFHP) with conventional control, a dual fuel heat pump with smart control, and a novel seamlessly fuel flexible heat pump (SFFHP). While DFHP runs on either gas or electricity at any given moment, SFFHP concurrently consumes gas and electricity by continuously optimizing the proportion of each. In this research, a co-simulation framework is developed by integrating a building envelope model with a physics-based heat pump simulation model to analyze the benefits of grid-responsive controls of DFHP and SFFHP. The model-based optimal controls adjust the operation of the heat pump and gas furnace based on utility price signals and marginal grid emission to minimize utility cost and CO 2 emissions for multiple climate zones, different utility tariffs, and marginal grid emission scenarios. Case studies in Chicago and Los Angeles demonstrate that SFFHP and DFHP, with model-based optimal control, can deliver significant reductions in peak demand, utility cost, and CO 2 emission. In Chicago, SFFHP and smart controlled DFHP yield up to 64.7% and 61.7% utility cost reduction and up to 15.7% and 8.5% CO 2 emission reduction compared to the gas furnace. In Los Angeles, SFFHP and smart controlled DFHP achieve up to 43.6% and 40.1% utility cost reduction and up to 13.8% and 14.1% CO2 emission reduction compared to conventional heat pumps. In conclusion, by leveraging the fuel flexibility nature of dual fuel heat pumps, the model-based control optimization approach makes dual fuel heat pump an attractive option for demand response programs.

Control↗

Rapid Load Transition for Integrated Solid Oxide Fuel Cell - Gas Turbine (SOFC-GT) Energy Systems: A Demonstration of the Potential for Grid Response

Rapid load transition is an essential requirement for integrated energy systems to maintain grid resilience as more renewable resources are added to the grid. Integrated solid oxide fuel cell - gas turbine (SOFC-GT) systems can provide high efficiency and low carbon emissions over a broad range of turndown. These hybrids also have the potential to enable rapid grid response. The challenge has been to demonstrate effective control strategies to manage load transitions. In the present study, a load transition of ~50% was achieved in 10 s using a novel but simple strategy. Power demand on the SOFC and the GT were ramped down concurrently. During this transition, the SOFC anode fuel was manipulated to maintain SOFC fuel utilization while the cathode inlet air flow and temperature were also manipulated to thermally protect the SOFC. This study was conducted using the Hybrid Performance (Hyper) facility at the National Energy Technology Laboratory (NETL) in a co-simulation environment with the Idaho National Laboratory (INL)'s grid-simulation. The load ramping strategy was tested using a hardware-based cyber-physical simulation methodology. The results demonstrate a high-fidelity representation of SOFC-GT hybrid dynamics and validation of the control strategy. Thermal and electrochemical transients indicated that the SOFC was well protected during rapid load turndown without violating operability constraints. This demonstration revealed the non-linear nature of tightly coupled SOFC-GT system components, especially the non-linear response of SOFC cathode air flow and inlet temperature controls. These results highlight the needs and challenges in developing adaptive automatic controls for autonomous rapid load transitions. This work demonstrates that SOFC-GT hybrids are a viable option to provide the fast-ramping characteristics essential to accommodate high levels of variable renewable power while maintaining grid resilience, reliability, and environmental performance. The results also demonstrate the utility of co-simulation in advancing the tightly-coupled integrated energy systems needed to meet goals for zero-carbon power generation.

DIRECT ENERGY CONVERSION,POWER TRANSMISSION AND DI↗

Effects of secondary void-initiating particles on the steady-state crack growth resistance of high-strength steel

In this investigation, we focus on the dependence of stable crack growth resistance, as measured by the short-rod fracture toughness test, on secondary void-initiating particles such as AlN and Ti-based grain-refining precipitates in a variety of high-strength steels with tempered martensitic microstructures. The model developed by Ritchie and Thompson is modified to illustrate the significant amounts of toughening that can result from the refinement of secondary particles. Analysis of the data suggests that material strength is a predominant factor in increasing the short-rod fracture toughness relative to linear-elastic measures of initiation fracture toughness, but the extent of toughening is limited by the size and number density of secondary particles in the microstructure. The variation in estimates of secondary microvoid initiation and growth strains with precipitate size reinforce the notion that primary fracture at non-metallic inclusions and secondary fracture at smaller particles occur as sequential processes with a degree of concurrence that is dependent on the state of precipitation in both particle dispersions. Toughening in this connection is maximized by increases in microvoid growth strain that result from decreases in the size and areal number density of secondary void-initiating particles. Finally, the occurrence of transient instabilities during crack extension in short-rod specimens is explained with a phenomenological model that relates crack growth stability to natural variations in the dispersion of secondary void-initiating particles in the microstructure.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Simultaneous Single Crystal Growth and Segregation of Ni-Rich Cathode Enabled by Nanoscale Phase Separation for Advanced Lithium-Ion Batteries

Here, a novel nanoscale phase separation process has been discovered to promote the growth and segregation of single-crystal LiNi 0.8 Mn 0.1 Co 0.1 O 2 (NMC811). This process occurs directly during high-temperature calcination without significant agglomeration. The key lies in converting transition metal hydroxide (TM(OH) 2 ) precursors with well-controlled morphology into transition metal oxide (TMO) intermediates before reacting them with lithium salt. The nanoscale redistribution of Ni in TMO, resulting from the concurrent formation of spinel and rock salt phases, helps to deagglomerate the clusters of later-formed NMC811 crystals. The as-prepared single-crystal NMC811 is further validated in a 2Ah pouch cell, demonstrating 1,000 stable cycles. The fundamentally new reaction mechanism of single-crystal growth and segregation provides a new direction for large-scale synthesis of a broad range of single crystals for advanced energy storage.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Prenatal exposure to polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons/aromatics, BDNF and child development

Objectives: Within a New York City (NYC) birth cohort, we assessed the associations between polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon (PAH) and other aromatic DNA adducts and brain derived neurotrophic factor (BDNF) concentrations in umbilical cord blood, and neurodevelopment at age 2 years and whether BDNF is a mediator of the associations between PAH/aromatic-DNA adducts and neurodevelopment. Methods: PAH/aromatic-DNA adduct concentrations in cord blood were measured in 505 children born to nonsmoking African-American and Dominican women residing in NYC, and a subset was assessed for neurodevelopment at 2 years using the Bayley Scales of Infant Development Mental Development Index (MDI). A spectrum of PAH/aromatic-DNA adducts was measured using the {sup 32}P-postlabeling assay; DNA adducts formed by benzo[a]pyrene (B[a]P), a representative PAH, were measured by High Performance Liquid Chromatography (HPLC)/fluorescence. BDNF mature protein in cord blood plasma was quantified by an ELISA. Multivariate regression analysis, adjusting for potential confounders, was conducted. Results: PAH/aromatic-DNA adduct concentration measured by postlabeling was inversely associated with BDNF concentration (p=0.02) and with MDI scores at 2 years (p=0.04). BDNF level was positively associated with MDI scores (p=0.003). Restricting to subjects having all three measures (PAH/aromatic-DNA adducts by postlabeling, MDI, and BDNF), results were similar but attenuated (p=0.13, p=0.05, p=0.01, respectively). Associations between B[a]P-DNA adducts and BDNF and B[a]P-DNA adducts and MDI at age 2 years were not significant. At age 3 years, the positive association of BDNF with MDI was not observed. Conclusions: The results at age 2 suggest that prenatal exposure to a spectrum of PAH/aromatic pollutants may adversely affect early neurodevelopment, in part by reducing BDNF levels during the fetal period. However, the same relationship was not seen at age 3. - Highlights: • Cord blood Polycyclic Aromatic Hydrocarbon (PAH)/aromatic-DNA adducts were assayed. • Brain Derived Neurotrophic Factor (BDNF) concentration was measured concurrently. • Associations between biomarkers and neurodevelopment at age 2 years were assessed. • Adduct level was inversely associated with BDNF concentration and neurodevelopment. • BDNF level was positively associated with neurodevelopment scores at age 2 years.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Global demand for rare earth resources and strategies for green mining

Rare earth elements (REEs) are essential raw materials for emerging renewable energy resources and ‘smart’ electronic devices. Global REE demand is slated to grow at an annual rate of 5% by 2020. This high growth rate will require a steady supply base of REEs in the long run. At present, China is responsible for 85% of global rare earth oxide (REO) production. To overcome this monopolistic supply situation, new strategies and investments are necessary to satisfy domestic supply demands. Concurrently, environmental, economic, and social problems arising from REE mining must be addressed. There is an urgent need to develop efficient REE recycling techniques from end-of-life products, technologies to minimize the amount of REEs required per unit device, and methods to recover them from fly ash or fossil fuel-burning wastes.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Association of residential greenness with obesity and physical activity in a US cohort of women

Highlights: • Women living in greener neighborhoods were less obese, and had higher activity levels. • Similar association observed in urban and rural areas. • Physical activity was an important mediator of association between greenness and obesity. There is evidence of several health benefits associated with neighborhood greenness, but reasons for this are unclear. Studies have found that those who live in greener neighborhoods are more physically active, and have lower rates of obesity. Relatively few studies have attempted to characterize associations between greenness and both obesity and physical activity concurrently, or among women who are at higher risk of developing cancer and for whom physical activity may be important for primary prevention. To address these gaps, we undertook a cross-sectional analysis of data from 50,884 women who enrolled in the Sister Study between 2003 and 2009. This cohort includes women aged 35–74 whose sister had been diagnosed with breast cancer. Residential measures of greenness were determined using the US National Land Cover database. Logistic regression was used to characterize associations between greenness, obesity, and physical activity. Adjustments were made for other possible confounders. Women who lived in areas with the highest tertile of greenness (based on a 500 m buffer) had a reduced risk of obesity (body mass index (BMI) ≥ 30) relative to those in the lowest tertile (odds ratio (OR) = 0.83, 95% CI = 0.79–0.87). We also found that those the upper tertile of greenness were 17% more likely to expend more than 67.1 metabolic equivalent (MET) hours per week when compared to those in the lowest tertile (OR = 1.17, 95% CI = 1.10–1.23). Beneficial associations between greenness and both obesity and physical activity were observed in urban and rural areas, and regionally, stronger associations were observed in the western census region in the US. Mediation analyses indicated that physical activity attenuated the association between greenness and obesity by 32%. Our findings indicate that, amongst US adult women at higher risks of breast cancer, residential proximity to greenness may help mitigate against sedentary behaviors that increase the risk of chronic disease.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Interactive effects of nonylphenol and bisphenol A exposure with oxidative stress on fetal reproductive indices

Highlights: • Maternal NP exposure may induce 8-OHdG and 8-NO{sub 2}Gua. • Prenatal BPA may induce 8-isoPF{sub 2α}. • Concurrent exposure to NP and BPA may enhance 8-OHdG. • In the high 8-isoPF{sub 2α} group, NP/BPA is inversely related with the fetal penis length. • The interactions of NP/BPA, oxidative stress and penis length should be considered. Nonylphenol (NP) and/or bisphenol A (BPA) may have reproductive effects. Although the mechanisms of action remain unclear, steroid hormones biosynthesis, hypothalamus pituitary adrenal axis activity, oxidative stress, and crosstalk interaction of NP and BPA mixture and its pathways may play a contributory role. This cross-sectional study examined whether the interactive effects of NP/BPA and oxidative stress biomarkers played a role in reproductive indices (penis length and anogenital distance (AGD)) in 244 mother-fetus pairs. Four biomarkers of oxidative stress, (8-hydroxy-2′-deoxyguanosine (8-OHdG), 8-nitroguanine (8-NO{sub 2}Gua), 8-iso-prostaglandin F{sub 2α} (8-isoPF{sub 2α}), and 4-hydroxy-2-nonenal-mercapturic acid (HNE-MA)) were simultaneously analyzed using the high-performance liquid chromatography-electrospray ionization tandem mass spectrometry method. No significant associations were found between reproductive indices and NP/BPA or oxidative stress biomarkers. Maternal exposure to a mixture of NP and BPA may enhance 8-OHdG. Interactive effects were found in the high 8-isoPF{sub 2α} group, and prenatal NP exposure was inversely associated with penis length (β = −3.68 mm; p = 0.01). Similar results were noted among boys who were born to mothers in the high 8-isoPF{sub 2α} group, in which BPA was inversely associated with penis length (β = −4.43 mm; p = 0.005). Our findings suggest important implications for prenatal exposure to oxidative stress, as evidenced by the 8-isoPF2α level. Thus, NP and BPA may interact to shape fetal reproductive tract development, particularly in boys. The interactive effects of NP/BPA, oxidative stress, and reproductive indices should be considered.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Management opportunities for soil carbon sequestration following agricultural land abandonment

The widespread historical and ongoing abandonment of agricultural lands worldwide presents important opportunities for promoting climate change mitigation through carbon sequestration. The default management outcome of abandonment is natural regeneration through ecological succession. However, several different management strategies and new land uses for abandoned agricultural lands have been recommended by the scientific community in recent years. This paper reviews the foremost proposed strategies and compares their soil carbon sequestration potentials. Six major categories have been proposed globally. Each proposal has positive and negative outcomes depending on site-specific factors and management objectives. Accordingly, no single strategy is ideal in all scenarios and a combination of strategies addresses multiple rural development goals concurrently. A combination of passive and active management techniques is the most effective approach for maximizing soil carbon sequestration over large geographic scales, while other strategies can be designed to also promote low-carbon land use practices and fossil fuel substitution. The implications of each proposal highlighted here demonstrates the positive role that abandoned agricultural lands can serve in climate change mitigation efforts, supporting policymakers tasked with planning the future of regions undergoing abandonment.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Iron-rich perovskite in the Earth;s lower mantle

The equations of state of perovskite with (Mg{sub 0.75},Fe{sub 0.25})SiO{sub 3} and MgSiO{sub 3} compositions have been investigated by synchrotron X-ray diffraction up to 130 GPa at 300 K in diamond anvil cells. Here we show that the addition of 25% Fe in MgSiO{sub 3} perovskite increases its density and bulk sound velocity (V{phi}) by 4-6% and 6-7%, respectively, at lower-mantle pressures. Based on concurrent synchrotron X-ray emission and Moessbauer spectroscopic studies of the samples, the increase in V{phi} and density can be explained by the occurrence of the low-spin Fe3+ and the extremely high-quadrupole component of Fe{sup 2+}. Combining these experimental results with thermodynamic modeling, our results indicate that iron-rich perovskite can produce an increase in density and a value of V{phi} that is compatible with seismic observations of reduced shear-wave velocity in regions interpreted as dense, stiff piles in the lower mantle. Therefore, the existence of the Fe-rich perovskite in the lower mantle may help elucidate the cause of the lower-mantle large low-shear-velocity provinces (LLSVPs) where enhanced density and V{phi} are seismically observed to anti-correlate with the reduced shear wave velocity.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Comets and carbonaceous chondrites delivered noble gases to the Moon

Trapped xenon isotopes in two Apollo 17 mare basalt fragments are similar to those in primitive meteorites. Xenon would have been effectively excluded from the Moon in the aftermath of its formation in a giant impact. As such, lunar mantle xenon trapped in the mare basalts is best explained as being derived from late accretion occurring before or concurrent with the formation of the lunar crust. Here, the isotopic composition indicates that a combination of comets and carbonaceous chondrites delivered this xenon to the lunar mantle. The inferred mass of accreted cometary ice would have delivered significantly less than a part per million of water to the lunar mantle. The inferred mass of accreted carbonaceous chondrites would have supplied at least a half of a part per million of water. The data further indicate that enstatite chondrites are unlikely to have supplied the majority of late accreted mass.

Chemistry↗

Parallel computing for power system climate resiliency: Solving a large-scale stochastic capacity expansion problem with mpi-sppy

Here we propose a nodal stochastic generation and transmission expansion planning model that incorporates the output from high-resolution global climate models through load and generation availability scenarios. We implement our model in Pyomo and perform computational studies on a realistically-sized test case of the California electric grid in a high performance computing environment. We propose model reformulations and algorithm tuning to efficiently solve this large problem using a variant of the Progressive Hedging Algorithm. We utilize the parallelization capabilities and overall versatility of mpi-sppy, exploiting its hub-and-spoke architecture to concurrently obtain inner and outer bounds on an optimal expansion plan. Initial results show that instances with 360 representative days on a system with over 8,000 buses can be solved to within 5% of optimality in under 4 h of wall clock time, a first step towards solving a large-scale power system expansion planning problem across a wide range of climate-informed operational scenarios.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Nodal capacity expansion planning with flexible large-scale load siting

We propose explicitly incorporating large-scale load siting into a stochastic nodal power system capacity expansion planning model that concurrently co-optimizes generation, transmission, and storage expansion. The potential operational flexibility of some of these large loads is also taken into account by considering them as consisting of a set of tranches with different reliability requirements, which are modeled as a constraint on expected served energy across operational scenarios. We implement our model as a two-stage stochastic mixed-integer optimization problem with cross-scenario expectation constraints. To overcome the challenge of scalability, we build upon existing work to implement this model on a high performance computing platform and exploit scenario parallelization using an augmented Progressive Hedging Algorithm. The algorithm is implemented using the bounding features of mpisppy, which have shown to provide satisfactory provable optimality gaps despite the absence of theoretical guarantees of convergence. We test our approach and assess the value of this proactive planning framework on total system cost and reliability metrics using realistic testcases geographically assigned to San Diego and South Carolina, with datacenter and direct air capture facilities as large loads.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Integrating in situ environmental covariates in an American lobster catch model to improve impact assessment

The installation and operation of floating offshore wind power is an integral component of societal transition to renewable energy generation where fixed bottom offshore wind is not possible. However, it will cause unique ecosystem changes. To disentangle the effects of offshore wind installations from the concurrent effects of climate change and the fishing practices on commercially significant resources, we must develop detailed characterizations of the resources before development occurs. In the Gulf of Maine, American lobster is the most commercially and culturally important fishery. At the time of writing, this is the largest fishery by value in North America. Our understanding of baseline localized parameters (such as catch per trap at the spatial scale of individual turbines) should be informed by relationships to environmental, biological, and survey-specific functional drivers of catch. A more mechanistic understanding of catch will allow for strategic adjustments to Post- Deployment fishery responses and ultimately, the development of research- and commercial-scale floating offshore wind development. Here, we used survey data from the New England Aqua Ventus Pre-Construction Commercial Trapping Survey to develop Generalized Additive Models describing seasonal catch per trap for legal and sublegal lobsters. We found fall catch to be nearly twice that of spring. Bottom temperature dynamics could be used to predict catch, and the Fall survey was associated with a warmer temperature regime. By using analytical tools that incorporate environmental heterogeneity, we developed monitoring methods from preconstruction baseline data that will be applicable over the post-construction operating period of an offshore wind farm.

BACI↗

Drivers and ecological impacts of a wildfire outbreak in the southern Appalachian Mountains after decades of fire exclusion

During one of the warmest and driest droughts of the last century, the southern Appalachian Mountains experienced a regional outbreak of over a dozen large wildfires in late fall of 2016. We provide a synthesis of long-term forest changes leading up to the 2016 wildfires, examine the climatic setting and patterns of burn severity in relationship to topography, and discuss the ecological and management implications of these and future fires. During the pre- and post-European settlement periods, frequent low- and mixed-severity wildfires interacted with complex topographic gradients and maintained heterogenous landscapes dominated by several species of oak (Quercus spp.), pine (Pinus spp.), and the American chestnut (Castanea dentata). Land-use changes associated with European settlement, loss of the American chestnut, and 20th century fire exclusion resulted in large scale shifts towards mesic, fire-intolerant species (i.e. mesophication). Wildfire activity began increasing in the early 1980s, but most fires in the region are small (<1,000 ha). In Fall of 2016, deciduous tree leaf fall occurred concurrently with a period of anomalously dry and warm weather, creating ideal conditions for fire ignition and spread. Thousands of ignitions across the region strained suppression resources and eight fires grew to greater than 5,000 ha. The 2016 fires were larger and burned more area than in the previous three decades combined. In one unique landscape setting, the Chimney Tops 2 Fire, a synoptic wind event drove extreme fire behavior and burned large, high-severity patches resulting in devastating effects in the wildland urban interface. However, immediate post-fire burn severity mosaics for other fires were composed primarily of low- (73 %) and moderate-severity (21 %) fire effects. High-severity fire comprised only 6 % of the area burned, and occurred mostly on steep upper slopes and ridges on south-facing aspects, reflecting the importance of bottom-up topographic drivers in this region. Although the fires will likely enhance biodiversity by restoring fire-dependent species and creating early seral habitat, invasions of non-native plant species, delayed mortality of mature pines and oaks, and rapid re-sprouting of pyrophyllic shrubs pose significant management challenges. Although similar large fire outbreaks may become more common under future climatic conditions, they are unlikely to reverse the effects of mesophication and significantly alter forest dynamics at broad spatial scales. Furthermore, the 2016 fires exposed the vulnerability of the region to wildfire during acute fall drought and demonstrate the potential ecological effects of future wildfires in mixed pine-hardwood landscapes of the southern Appalachians.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗