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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2026

A Probabilistic Approach to Load Modeling for Central HVAC Systems in Large Commercial Buildings for Retrofit Decisions Under Uncertainty

Retrofitting central HVAC systems in large commercial buildings with advanced technologies like heat recovery chillers (HRCs) offers a significant opportunity to enhance energy efficiency. However, analyzing these retrofits is challenging with traditional whole-building simulation tools, which require intensive calibration and struggle to model innovative system configurations and controls. To overcome these limitations, this study proposes a load profilebased retrofit analysis framework that provides better decisions under uncertainty. The main focus of this paper is the development of a probabilistic load profile model that can be used in the framework by using exploratory data analysis (EDA) of measured building data to properly quantify its inherent variability. A non-parametric Gaussian Process (GP) model was employed to capture the time- and weather-dependent characteristics of the heating load while explicitly modeling its uncertainty. The model's effectiveness is demonstrated through strong predictive performance on unseen data and physically interpretable insights into load behavior. This data-driven, probabilistic load profile serves as a robust and flexible input for subsequent system simulations, enabling a more confident and statistically sound analysis of retrofit potential.

Ham, S W↗
DOE OSTI2023

Effects of small marine energy deployments on oceanographic systems

The placement and operation of marine energy deployments in the ocean have the potential to change flow patterns, decrease wave heights, and/or remove energy from the oceanographic system. Changes in oceanographic systems resulting from harvesting marine energy, particularly tidal and wave energy, may be of concern. These changes include alterations in nearfield and farfield physical processes, as well as potential secondary environmental effects such as changes in sediment transport patterns, biological processes, or coastal erosion. Knowledge of changes in oceanographic systems associated with marine energy is primarily available from numerical modeling studies, informed by some laboratory tests and very few field measurements. A literature review was conducted using the Tethys knowledge base and other online sources, building on conclusions from the Ocean Energy Systems-Environmental State of the Science report. Potential changes in oceanographic systems that may be caused by marine energy differ between tidal and wave devices because of different extraction mechanisms and siting locations. Numerical models show that tidal extraction on the order of hundreds of megawatts or with significant channel blockage is required to create changes in oceanographic processes that exceed natural variability. Effects from wave energy extraction in arrays are localized and dependent on array spacing and proximity to the shore. Here the available evidence supports the conclusion that the risk of significant environmental effects from such changes could be retired (i.e., less investigation required for every project) for small deployments—those representative of the state of the industry in 2021. Determining changes in oceanographic systems to be low risk for small deployments can thereby streamline environmental consenting by reducing monitoring needs at this early stage in the industry.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Evolving Electricity Supply and Demand to Achieve Net-Zero Emissions: Insights from the EMF-37 Study

This paper explores the role of electricity in achieving economy-wide net-zero CO2 emissions by 2050 in the United States based on results from 17 models as part of the 37th Stanford Energy Modeling Forum (EMF-37). In the study's Net-Zero scenario, the models use diverse pathways to achieve net-zero emissions by 2050, with gross energy-related residual emissions ranging from 17.2 to 66.6 % of 2020 levels. Electricity consistently emerges as central to achieving net-zero, with models projecting rapid electrification of end-uses and rapidly declining CO2 intensity of electricity. However, the extent of electrification and the technology mix to decarbonize the power sector vary considerably across models. In the Net-Zero scenario, electricity is projected to evolve from ~20 % of final energy in 2020 to 17-63 % in 2050 across the models driven by electrification in all sectors-buildings, industry, and transportation-and, to a lesser extent by direct air capture. By 2050, total electricity consumption increases by 24-176 % (relative to 2020), accompanied by significant expansion in renewable electricity production. Together, solar and wind generation grows by 175-834 %, supplying 45-90 % of total electricity in 2050, with wind achieving slightly higher shares than solar. Electricity storage technologies are deployed at scale to support wind and solar generation. The electricity generation mix varies across models: some project almost complete reliance on renewables, while others see a substantial role for natural gas, often with carbon capture and storage. This paper synthesizes the rich diversity of modeling approaches and results, highlighting differing views on how key drivers of electricity demand and supply might evolve.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2023

H2@Scale CRADA: CA Research Consort. (Ref. Station, Fueling Perf. Test Device, Station Cap Model)

Heavy-duty (HD) hydrogen stations are an essential part of building a clean energy infrastructure by lowering greenhouse gas emissions and criteria pollutants from the trucking industry. Clean fuel at HD stations also supports energy, environmental, and social justice by preventing pollution near the stations and on truck routes while strengthening U.S. manufacturing and providing pathways to private sector uptake. The goal of the CA Research Consortium is to continue the research partnership between national laboratories, DOE, and California public agencies for the advancement of hydrogen fueling infrastructure for HD vehicles. This cooperative work directly impacts California's transition to Zero Emission Trucks and will provide tools and information that lead to more efficient design, acceptance, and commissioning of these larger capacity, higher flow rate stations serving HD hydrogen trucks such as class 8 trucks in long haul applications.

AMR↗
DOE OSTI2012

Proven Performance of Seven Cold Climate Deep Retrofit Homes

Seven test homes located in Massachusetts are examined within this report. The retrofit strategies of each home are presented along with a comparison of the pre- and post-retrofit airtightness achieved by the group. Pre- and post-retrofit utility bills were collected; energy models were used to estimate pre-retrofit energy use when bills were unavailable.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2019

Commercial Building Energy Saver, API (CBES API) v2.0

The CBES API provides Application Programming Interface to a suite of functions to improve energy efficiency of buildings, including building energy benchmarking, preliminary retrofit analysis using a pre-simulation database DEEP, and detailed retrofit analysis using energy modeling with the EnergyPlus simulation engine. New capabilities in version 2.0 include renewable technologies (PV, storage), advanced HVAC systems, demand response measures, TDV (Time Dependent Valuation energy) metrics, as well as shading from adjacent buildings, trees or roof obstructions. The CBES API is used to power the LBNL CBES Web App. It can be used by third party developers and vendors.

Hong, Tianzhen↗
DOE OSTI2015

Effects of Home Energy Management Systems on Distribution Utilities and Feeders Under Various Market Structures: Preprint

The combination of distributed energy resources (DER) and retail tariff structures to provide benefits to both utility consumers and the utilities is poorly understood. To improve understanding, an Integrated Energy System Model (IESM) is being developed to simulate the physical and economic aspects of DER technologies, the buildings where they reside, and feeders servicing them. The IESM was used to simulate 20 houses with home energy management systems on a single feeder under a time of use tariff to estimate economic and physical impacts on both the households and the distribution utilities. HEMS reduce consumers’ electric bills by precooling houses in the hours before peak electricity pricing. Household savings are greater than the reduction utility net revenue indicating that HEMS can provide a societal benefit providing tariffs are structured so that utilities remain solvent. Utilization of HEMS reduce peak loads during high price hours but shifts it to hours with off-peak and shoulder prices and resulting in a higher peak load.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2015

Effects of Home Energy Management Systems on Distribution Utilities and Feeders Under Various Market Structure; NREL (National Renewable Energy Laboratory)

The combination of distributed energy resources (DER) and retail tariff structures to provide benefits to both utility consumers and the utilities is not well understood. To improve understanding, an Integrated Energy System Model (IESM) is being developed to simulate the physical and economic aspects of DER technologies, the buildings where they reside, and feeders servicing them. The IESM was used to simulate 20 houses with home energy management systems on a single feeder under a time-of-use (TOU) tariff to estimate economic and physical impacts on both the households and the distribution utilities. Home energy management systems (HEMS) reduce consumers’ electric bills by precooling houses in the hours before peak electricity pricing. Utilization of HEMS reduce peak loads during high price hours but shifts it to hours with off-peak and shoulder prices, resulting in a higher peak load. used to simulate 20 houses with home energy management systems on a single feeder under a time-of-use (TOU) tariff to estimate economic and physical impacts on both the households and the distribution utilities. Home energy management systems (HEMS) reduce consumers’ electric bills by precooling houses in the hours before peak electricity pricing. Utilization of HEMS reduce peak loads during high price hours but shifts it to hours with off-peak and shoulder prices, resulting in a higher peak load.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2017

Quantifying the statistical importance of utilizing regression over classic energy intensity calculations for tracking efficiency improvements in industry

In the United States, manufacturing facilities account for about 32% of total domestic energy consumption in 2014. Robust energy tracking methodologies are critical to understanding energy performance in manufacturing facilities. Due to its simplicity and intuitiveness, the classic energy intensity method (i.e. the ratio of total energy use over total production) is the most widely adopted. However, the classic energy intensity method does not take into account the variation of other relevant parameters (i.e. product type, feed stock type, weather, etc.). Furthermore, the energy intensity method assumes that the facilities’ base energy consumption (energy use at zero production) is zero, which rarely holds true. Therefore, it is commonly recommended to utilize regression models rather than the energy intensity approach for tracking improvements at the facility level. Unfortunately, many energy managers have difficulties understanding why regression models are statistically better than utilizing the classic energy intensity method. While anecdotes and qualitative information may convince some, many have major reservations about the accuracy of regression models and whether it is worth the time and effort to gather data and build quality regression models. This paper will explain why regression models are theoretically and quantitatively more accurate for tracking energy performance improvements. Based on the analysis of data from 114 manufacturing plants over 12 years, this paper will present quantitative results on the importance of utilizing regression models over the energy intensity methodology. This paper will also document scenarios where regression models do not have significant relevance over the energy intensity method.

Wenning, Thomas↗
DOE OSTI2018

Practical factors of envelope model setup and their effects on the performance of model predictive control for building heating, ventilating, and air conditioning systems

Model predictive control (MPC) for buildings is attracting significant attention in research and industry due to its potential to address a number of challenges facing the building industry, including energy cost reduction, grid integration, and occupant connectivity. However, the strategy has not yet been implemented at any scale, largely due to the significant effort required to configure and calibrate the model used in the MPC controller. While many studies have focused on methods to expedite model configuration and improve model accuracy, few have studied the impact a wide range of factors have on the accuracy of the resulting model. In addition, few have continued on to analyze these factors’ impact on MPC controller performance in terms of final operating costs. Therefore, this study first identifies the practical factors affecting model setup, specifically focusing on the thermal envelope. The seven that are identified are building design, model structure, model order, data set, data quality, identification algorithm and initial guesses, and software tool-chain. Then, through a large number of trials, it analyzes each factor's influence on model accuracy, focusing on grey-box models for a single zone building envelope. Finally, this study implements a subset of the models identified with these factor variations in heating, ventilating, and air conditioning MPC controllers, and tests them in simulation of a representative case that aims to optimally cool a single-zone building with time-varying electricity prices. It is found that a difference of up to 20%25 in cooling cost for the cases studied can occur between the best performing model and the worst performing model. The primary factors attributing to this were model structure and initial parameter guesses during parameter estimation of the model.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2021

The impacts of convex piecewise linear cost formulations on AC optimal power flow

Despite strong connections through shared application areas, research efforts on power market optimization (e.g., unit commitment) and power network optimization (e.g., optimal power flow) remain largely independent. A notable illustration of this is the treatment of power generation cost functions, where nonlinear network optimization has largely used polynomial representations and market optimization has adopted piecewise linear encodings. This work combines state-of-the-art results from both lines of research to understand the best mathematical formulations of the nonlinear AC optimal power flow problem with piecewise linear generation cost functions. An extensive numerical analysis of non-convex models, linear approximations, and convex relaxations across fifty-four realistic test cases illustrates that nonlinear optimization methods are surprisingly sensitive to the mathematical formulation of piecewise linear functions. The results indicate that a poor formulation choice can slow down algorithm performance by a factor of ten, increasing the runtime from seconds to minutes. Furthermore, these results provide valuable insights into the best formulations of nonlinear optimal power flow problems with piecewise linear cost functions, an important step towards building a new generation of energy markets that incorporate the nonlinear AC power flow model.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2013

A Post-Occupancy Monitored Evaluation of the Dimmable Lighting, Automated Shading, and Underfloor Air Distribution System in The New York Times Building

With aggressive goals to reduce national energy use and carbon emissions, the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) will be looking to exemplary buildings that have already invested in new approaches to achieving the energy performance goals now needed at a national level. The New York Times Building, in New York, New York, incorporates a number of innovative technologies, systems and processes and could become model for widespread replication in new and existing buildings. A year-long monitored study was conducted to verify energy performance, assess occupant comfort and satisfaction with the indoor environment, and evaluate impact on maintenance and operations. Lessons learned were derived from the analysis; these lessons could help identify and shape policy, financial, or supporting strategies to accelerate diffusion in the commercial building market.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2016

THE MIRA–TITAN UNIVERSE: PRECISION PREDICTIONS FOR DARK ENERGY SURVEYS

Large-scale simulations of cosmic structure formation play an important role in interpreting cosmological observations at high precision. The simulations must cover a parameter range beyond the standard six cosmological parameters and need to be run at high mass and force resolution. A key simulation-based task is the generation of accurate theoretical predictions for observables using a finite number of simulation runs, via the method of emulation. Using a new sampling technique, we explore an eight-dimensional parameter space including massive neutrinos and a variable equation of state of dark energy. We construct trial emulators using two surrogate models (the linear power spectrum and an approximate halo mass function). The new sampling method allows us to build precision emulators from just 26 cosmological models and to systematically increase the emulator accuracy by adding new sets of simulations in a prescribed way. Emulator fidelity can now be continuously improved as new observational data sets become available and higher accuracy is required. Finally, using one ΛCDM cosmology as an example, we study the demands imposed on a simulation campaign to achieve the required statistics and accuracy when building emulators for investigations of dark energy.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2019

Analysis of blade fragment risk at a wind energy facility

An analysis was performed to determine the risk posed by wind turbine fragments on roads and buildings at the National Wind Technology Center at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory. The authors used a previously developed model of fragment trajectory and took into account the wind speed/direction distribution at the site and the probability of rotor failure. The site-specific risk was assessed by determining the likelihood of impact and related consequences. For both the roads and buildings, the risk varied from low to routine, which was considered acceptable.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2013

Performance Evaluation of K-DEMO Cable-in-conduit Conductors Using the Florida Electro-Mechanical Cable Model

The United States ITER Project Office (USIPO) is responsible for design of the Toroidal Field (TF) insert coil, which will allow validation of the performance of significant lengths of the conductors to be used in the full scale TF coils in relevant conditions of field, current density and mechanical strain. The Japan Atomic Energy Agency (JAEA) will build the TF insert which will be tested at the Central Solenoid Model Coil (CSMC) Test facility at JAEA, Naka, Japan. Three dimensional mathematical model of TF Insert was created based on the initial design geometry data, and included the following features: orthotropic material properties of superconductor material and insulation; external magnetic field from CSMC, temperature dependent properties of the materials; pre-compression and plastic deformation in lap joint. Major geometrical characteristics of the design were preserved including cable jacket and insulation shape, mandrel outline, and support clamps and spacers. The model is capable of performing coupled structural, thermal, and electromagnetic analysis using ANSYS. Numerical simulations were performed for room temperature conditions; cool down to 4K, and the operating regime with 68kA current at 11.8 Tesla background field. Numerical simulations led to the final design of the coil producing the required strain levels on the cable, while simultaneously satisfying the ITER magnet structural design criteria.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2018

A unified framework for polycrystal plasticity with grain boundary evolution

Plastic deformation in polycrystals is governed by the interplay between intra-granular slip and grain boundary-mediated plasticity. However, while the role played by bulk dislocations is relatively well-understood, the contribution of grain boundaries (GBs) has only recently begun to be studied. GB plasticity is known to play a key role along with bulk plasticity under a wide range of conditions, such as dynamic recovery, superplasticity, severe plastic deformation, etc., and developing models capable of simultaneously capturing GB and bulk plasticity has become a topic of high relevance. In this paper we develop a thermodynamically-consistent polycrystal plasticity model capable of simulating a variety of grain boundary-mediated plastic processes in conjunction with bulk dislocation slip. The model starts from the description of a single crystal and creates lattice strain-free polycrystalline configurations by using a specially-designed multiplicative decomposition developed by the authors. This leads to the introduction of a particular class of geometrically necessary dislocations (GND) that define fundamental GB features such as misorientation and inclination. The evolution of the system is based on an energy functional that uses a non-standard function of the GND tensor to account for the grain boundary energy, as well as for the standard elastic energy. Our implementation builds on smooth descriptions of GBs inspired on diffuse-interface models of grain evolution for numerical convenience. Here we demonstrate the generality and potential of the methodology by simulating a wide variety of phenomena such as shear-induced GB sliding, coupled GB motion, curvature-induced grain rotation and shrinkage, and polygonization via dislocation sub-grain formation.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗