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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2015

Photometric and proper motion study of the neglected open cluster NGC 2215

Optical UBVRI photometric measurements using the Faulkes Telescope North were taken in early 2011 and combined with 2MASS JHK{sub s} and WISE infrared photometry as well as UCAC4 proper motion data in order to estimate the main parameters of the galactic open cluster NGC 2215 of which large uncertainty exists in the current literature. Fitting a King model we estimate a core radius of 1.′12 ± 0.′04 (0.24 ± 0.01 pc) and a limiting radius of 4.′3 ± 0.′5 (0.94 ± 0.11 pc) for the cluster. The results of isochrone fits indicates an age of log(t)=8.85±0.10 with a distance of d=790±90 pc, a metallicity of [Fe/H]=−0.40±0.10 dex, and a reddening of E(B−V)=0.26±0.04. A proportion of the work in this study was undertaken by Australian and Canadian upper secondary school students involved in the Space to Grow astronomy education project, and is the first scientific publication to have utilized our star cluster photometry curriculum materials.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2015

THE ARAUCARIA PROJECT: A STUDY OF THE CLASSICAL CEPHEID IN THE ECLIPSING BINARY SYSTEM OGLE LMC562.05.9009 IN THE LARGE MAGELLANIC CLOUD

We present a detailed study of the classical Cepheid in the double-lined, highly eccentric eclipsing binary system OGLE-LMC562.05.9009. The Cepheid is a fundamental mode pulsator with a period of 2.988 days. The orbital period of the system is 1550 days. Using spectroscopic data from three 4–8-m telescopes and photometry spanning 22 years, we were able to derive the dynamical masses and radii of both stars with exquisite accuracy. Both stars in the system are very similar in mass, radius, and color, but the companion is a stable, non-pulsating star. The Cepheid is slightly more massive and bigger (M{sub 1} = 3.70 ± 0.03 M{sub ⊙}, R{sub 1} = 28.6 ± 0.2 R{sub ⊙}) than its companion (M{sub 2} = 3.60 ± 0.03 M{sub ⊙}, R{sub 2} = 26.6 ± 0.2 R{sub ⊙}). Within the observational uncertainties both stars have the same effective temperature of 6030 ± 150 K. Evolutionary tracks place both stars inside the classical Cepheid instability strip, but it is likely that future improved temperature estimates will move the stable giant companion just beyond the red edge of the instability strip. Within current observational and theoretical uncertainties, both stars fit on a 205 Myr isochrone arguing for their common age. From our model, we determine a value of the projection factor of p = 1.37 ± 0.07 for the Cepheid in the OGLE-LMC562.05.9009 system. This is the second Cepheid for which we could measure its p-factor with high precision directly from the analysis of an eclipsing binary system, which represents an important contribution toward a better calibration of Baade-Wesselink methods of distance determination for Cepheids.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2018

Long‐term evaluation of fitness and demographic effects of a Chinook Salmon supplementation program

Abstract While the goal of supplementation programs is to provide positive, population‐level effects for species of conservation concern, these programs can also present an inherent fitness risk when captive‐born individuals are fully integrated into the natural population. In order to evaluate the long‐term effects of a supplementation program and estimate the demographic and phenotypic factors influencing the fitness of a threatened population of Chinook Salmon ( Oncorhynchus tshawytscha ), we genotyped tissue samples spanning a 19‐year period (1998–2016) to generate pedigrees from adult fish returning to Johnson Creek, Idaho, USA. We expanded upon previous estimates of relative reproductive success (RRS) to include grandparentage analyses and used generalized linear models to determine whether origin (hatchery or natural) or phenotypic traits (timing of arrival to spawning grounds, body length, and age) significantly predicted reproductive success (RS) across multiple years. Our results provide evidence that this supplementation program with 100% natural‐origin broodstock provided a long‐term demographic boost to the population (mean of 4.56 times in the first generation and mean of 2.52 times in the second generation). Overall, when spawning in nature, hatchery‐origin fish demonstrated a trend toward lower RS compared to natural‐origin fish ( p < 0.05). However, when hatchery‐origin fish successfully spawned with natural‐origin fish, they had similar RS compared to natural by natural crosses (first‐generation mean hatchery by natural cross RRS = 1.11 females, 1.13 males; second‐generation mean hatchery by natural cross RRS = 1.03 females, 1.08 males). While origin, return year, and body length were significant predictors of fitness for both males and females ( p < 0.05), return day was significant for males but not females ( p > 0.05). These results indicate that supplementation programs that reduce the potential for genetic adaptation to captivity can be effective at increasing population abundance while limiting long‐term fitness effects on wild populations.

Janowitz‐Koch, Ilana↗
DOE OSTI2015

Statistical model selection for better prediction and discovering science mechanisms that affect reliability

Understanding the impact of production, environmental exposure and age characteristics on the reliability of a population is frequently based on underlying science and empirical assessment. When there is incomplete science to prescribe which inputs should be included in a model of reliability to predict future trends, statistical model/variable selection techniques can be leveraged on a stockpile or population of units to improve reliability predictions as well as suggest new mechanisms affecting reliability to explore. We describe a five-step process for exploring relationships between available summaries of age, usage and environmental exposure and reliability. The process involves first identifying potential candidate inputs, then second organizing data for the analysis. Third, a variety of models with different combinations of the inputs are estimated, and fourth, flexible metrics are used to compare them. As a result, plots of the predicted relationships are examined to distill leading model contenders into a prioritized list for subject matter experts to understand and compare. The complexity of the model, quality of prediction and cost of future data collection are all factors to be considered by the subject matter experts when selecting a final model.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2017

CCN activity and organic hygroscopicity of aerosols downwind of an urban region in central Amazonia: seasonal and diel variations and impact of anthropogenic emissions

Abstract. During the Observations and Modeling of the Green Ocean Amazon (GoAmazon2014/5) campaign, size-resolved cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) spectra were characterized at a research site (T3) 60 km downwind of the city of Manaus, Brazil, in central Amazonia for 1 year (12 March 2014 to 3 March 2015). Particle hygroscopicity (κCCN) and mixing state were derived from the size-resolved CCN spectra, and the hygroscopicity of the organic component of the aerosol (κorg) was then calculated from κCCN and concurrent chemical composition measurements. The annual average κCCN increased from 0.13 at 75 nm to 0.17 at 171 nm, and the increase was largely due to an increase in sulfate volume fraction. During both wet and dry seasons, κCCN, κorg, and particle composition under background conditions exhibited essentially no diel variations. The constant κorg of ∼ 0. 15 is consistent with the largely uniform and high O : C value (∼ 0. 8), indicating that the aerosols under background conditions are dominated by the aged regional aerosol particles consisting of highly oxygenated organic compounds. For air masses strongly influenced by urban pollution and/or local biomass burning, lower values of κorg and organic O : C atomic ratio were observed during night, due to accumulation of freshly emitted particles, dominated by primary organic aerosol (POA) with low hygroscopicity, within a shallow nocturnal boundary layer. The O : C, κorg, and κCCN increased from the early morning hours and peaked around noon, driven by the formation and aging of secondary organic aerosol (SOA) and dilution of POA emissions into a deeper boundary layer, while the development of the boundary layer, which leads to mixing with aged particles from the residual layer aloft, likely also contributed to the increases. The hygroscopicities associated with individual organic factors, derived from PMF (positive matrix factorization) analysis of AMS (aerosol mass spectrometry) spectra, were estimated through multivariable linear regression. For the SOA factors, the variation of the κ value with O : C agrees well with the linear relationship reported from earlier laboratory studies of SOA hygroscopicity. On the other hand, the variation in O : C of ambient aerosol organics is largely driven by the variation in the volume fractions of POA and SOA factors, which have very different O : C values. As POA factors have hygroscopicity values well below the linear relationship between SOA hygroscopicity and O : C, mixtures with different POA and SOA fractions exhibit a steeper slope for the increase in κorg with O : C, as observed during this and earlier field studies. This finding helps better understand and reconcile the differences in the relationships between κorg and O : C observed in laboratory and field studies, therefore providing a basis for improved parameterization in global models, especially in a tropical context.

Thalman, Ryan↗
NASA NTRS1986

The temperatures of very metal-poor subdwarfs

The determination of ages for metal poor globular cluster stars using the relationship between stellar effective temperature and color, in order to transform isochrones from the L, Teff plane to the M(V), color plane is described. Estimates of the effective temperatures of metal-poor field subdwarfs deduced from the ratios of the integrated fluxes to the 12000 A fluxes of the 4 subdwarfs are in good agreement with published results. The stars are fainter than the models in the infrared, but the UV fluxes are in good agreement with model predictions.

Bell, R. A.↗
NASA NTRS2017

Multiple Igneous Bodies for Nakhlites and Chassignites as Inferred from Olivine Cooling Rates using Calcium Zoning

Nakhlites and chassignites are ultramafic cumulate rocks of clinopyroxene and olivine, respec-tively, considered to have been formed in a thick lava flow or shallow intrusion near the Martian surface [e.g., 1,2]. Although more than 100 Martian meteorites have been found so far, most of them are shergottites and only nine nakhlites and three chassignites are known (considering paired samples) [3]. In contrast to shergottites which show large variations in both mineralogy and ages, nakhlites and chassignites are suggested to have been petrogenetically related, crystallized at about the same time and been ejected by the same impact event because of their identical crystallization (approximately 1.3 Ga) and cosmic-ray exposure (10-11 My) ages [e.g., 1]. In this study we discuss the possibility of a common igneous body for all samples belonging to these two groups as suggested by previous studies [e.g., 4]. To do this we estimated cooling rates of olivine using Ca zoning profiles, especially by paying attention to the newest samples of each group (NWA 10720 nakhlite and NWA 8694 chassignite).

Mikouchi, T.↗
NASA NTRS2020

WISE 2150-7520AB: A Very Low-mass, Wide Comoving Brown Dwarf System Discovered through the Citizen Science Project Backyard Worlds: Planet 9

We report the discovery of WISE 2150-7520AB (W2150AB): a widely separated (∼341 au) very low-mass L1 + T8 co-moving system. The system consists of the previously known L1 primary 2MASS J21501592-7520367 and a newly discovered T8 secondary found at position 21:50:18.99–75:20:54.6 (MJD = 57947) using Wide-field Infrared Survey Explorer data via the Backyard Worlds: Planet 9 citizen science project. We present Spitzer ch1 and ch2 photometry (ch1–ch2 = 1.41 ± 0.04 mag) of the secondary and Folded-port InfraRed Echellette prism spectra of both components. The sources show no peculiar spectral or photometric signatures, indicating that each component is likely field age. Using all observed data and the Gaia DR2 parallax of 41.3593 ± 0.2799 mas for W2150A we deduce fundamental parameters of log(L(bol)/L(☉)) = −3.69 ± 0.01, T(eff) = 2118 ± 62 K, and an estimated mass = 72 ± 12 M(Jup) for the L1 and log(L(bol)/L(☉)) = −5.64 ± 0.02, T(eff) = 719 ± 61 K, and an estimated mass = 34 ± 22 M(Jup) for the T8. At a physical separation of ∼341 au this system has E(bin) = 1041 erg, making it the lowest binding energy system of any pair with M(tot) < 0.1 M(Sun) not associated with a young cluster. It is equivalent in estimated mass ratio, E(bin), and physical separation to the ∼2 Myr M7.25 + M8.25 binary brown dwarf 2MASS J11011926-7732383AB (2M1101AB) found in the Chameleon star-forming region. W2150AB is the widest companion system yet observed in the field where the primary is an L dwarf or later.

Jacqueline Faherty↗
NASA NTRS2021

Examining Runner’s Outdoor Heat Exposure Using Urban Microclimate Modeling and GPS Trajectory Mining

It is important to quantify human heat exposure in order to evaluate and mitigate the negative impacts of heat on human well-being in the context of global warming. This study proposed a human-centric framework to examine human personal heat exposure based on anonymous GPS trajectories data mining and urban microclimate modeling. The mean radiant temperature (Tmrt) that represents the human body’s energy balance was used to indicate human heat exposure. The meteorological data and high-resolution 3D urban model generated from multispectral remotely sensed images and LiDAR data were used as inputs in urban microclimate modeling to map the spatio-temporal distribution of the Tmrt in the Boston metropolitan area. The anonymous human GPS trajectory data collected from fitness Apps was used to map the spatiotemporal distribution of human outdoor activities. By overlaying the anonymous GPS trajectories on the generated spatio-temporal maps of Tmrt, this study further examined the heat exposure of runners in different age-gender groups in the Boston area. Results show that there is no significant difference in terms of heat exposure for female and male runners. The female runners in the age of 45-54 are exposed to more heat than female runners of 18-24 and 25-34, while there is no significant difference among male runners. This study proposed a novel method to estimate human heat exposure, which would shed new light on mitigating the negative impacts of heat on human health.

Personal heat exposure↗
DOE OSTI2020

Process design tools and techno-economic analysis for capacitive deionization

Capacitive deionization (CDI) devices use cyclical electrosorption on porous electrode surfaces to achieve water desalination. Process modeling and design of CDI systems requires accurate treatment of the coupling among input electrical forcing, input flow rates, and system responses including salt removal dynamics, water recovery, energy storage, and dissipation. Techno-economic analyses of CDI further require a method to calculate and compare between a produced commodity (e.g. desalted water) versus capital and operational costs of the system. In this work, we demonstrate a new modeling and analysis tool for CDI developed as an installable Matlab program that allows direct numerical simulation of CDI dynamics and calculation of key performance and cost parameters. The program is provided for free and is used to run open-source Simulink models. The Simulink environment sends information to the program and allows for a drag and drop design space where users can connect CDI cells to relevant periphery blocks such as grid energy, battery, solar panel, waste disposal, and maintenance/labor cost streams. The program allows for simulation of arbitrary current forcing and arbitrary flow rate forcing of one or more CDI cells. We employ validated well-mixed reactor formulations together with a non-linear circuit model formulation that can accommodate a variety of electric double layer sub-models (e.g. for charge efficiency). The program includes a graphical user interface (GUI) to specify CDI plant parameters, specify operating conditions, run individual tests or parameter batch-mode simulations, and plot relevant results. The techno-economic models convert among dimensional streams of species (e.g. feed, desalted water, and brine), energy, and cost and enable a variety of economic estimates including levelized water costs.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2014

Functional Data Analysis in NTCP Modeling: A New Method to Explore the Radiation Dose-Volume Effects

Purpose/Objective(s): To describe a novel method to explore radiation dose-volume effects. Functional data analysis is used to investigate the information contained in differential dose-volume histograms. The method is applied to the normal tissue complication probability modeling of rectal bleeding (RB) for patients irradiated in the prostatic bed by 3-dimensional conformal radiation therapy. Methods and Materials: Kernel density estimation was used to estimate the individual probability density functions from each of the 141 rectum differential dose-volume histograms. Functional principal component analysis was performed on the estimated probability density functions to explore the variation modes in the dose distribution. The functional principal components were then tested for association with RB using logistic regression adapted to functional covariates (FLR). For comparison, 3 other normal tissue complication probability models were considered: the Lyman-Kutcher-Burman model, logistic model based on standard dosimetric parameters (LM), and logistic model based on multivariate principal component analysis (PCA). Results: The incidence rate of grade ≥2 RB was 14%. V{sub 65Gy} was the most predictive factor for the LM (P=.058). The best fit for the Lyman-Kutcher-Burman model was obtained with n=0.12, m = 0.17, and TD50 = 72.6 Gy. In PCA and FLR, the components that describe the interdependence between the relative volumes exposed at intermediate and high doses were the most correlated to the complication. The FLR parameter function leads to a better understanding of the volume effect by including the treatment specificity in the delivered mechanistic information. For RB grade ≥2, patients with advanced age are significantly at risk (odds ratio, 1.123; 95% confidence interval, 1.03-1.22), and the fits of the LM, PCA, and functional principal component analysis models are significantly improved by including this clinical factor. Conclusion: Functional data analysis provides an attractive method for flexibly estimating the dose-volume effect for normal tissues in external radiation therapy.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗
DOE OSTI2014

Attitude towards the incorporation of the selective collection of biowaste in a municipal solid waste management system. A case study

Highlights: • Attitude towards incorporating biowaste selective collection is analysed. • Willingness to participate and to pay in biowaste selective collection is obtained. • Socioeconomic aspects affecting WtParticipate and WtPay are identified. - Abstract: European waste legislation has been encouraging for years the incorporation of selective collection systems for the biowaste fraction. European countries are therefore incorporating it into their current municipal solid waste management (MSWM) systems. However, this incorporation involves changes in the current waste management habits of households. In this paper, the attitude of the public towards the incorporation of selective collection of biowaste into an existing MSWM system in a Spanish municipality is analysed. A semi-structured telephone interview was used to obtain information regarding aspects such as: level of participation in current waste collection systems, willingness to participate in selective collection of biowaste, reasons and barriers that affect participation, willingness to pay for the incorporation of the selective collection of biowaste and the socioeconomic characteristics of citizens who are willing to participate and pay for selective collection of biowaste. The results showed that approximately 81% of the respondents were willing to participate in selective collection of biowaste. This percentage would increase until 89% if the Town Council provided specific waste bins and bags, since the main barrier to participate in the new selective collection system is the need to use specific waste bin and bags for the separation of biowaste. A logit response model was applied to estimate the average willingness to pay, obtaining an estimated mean of 7.5% on top of the current waste management annual tax. The relationship of willingness to participate and willingness to pay for the implementation of this new selective collection with the socioeconomic variables (age, gender, size of the household, work, education and income) was analysed. Chi-square independence tests and binary logistic regression was used for willingness to participate, not being obtained any significant relationship. Chi-square independence tests, ordinal logistic regression and ordinary linear regression was applied for willingness to pay, obtaining statistically significant relationship for most of the socioeconomic variables.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2014

The G+M eclipsing binary V530 Orionis: a stringent test of magnetic stellar evolution models for low-mass stars

We report extensive photometric and spectroscopic observations of the 6.1 day period, G+M-type detached double-lined eclipsing binary V530 Ori, an important new benchmark system for testing stellar evolution models for low-mass stars. We determine accurate masses and radii for the components with errors of 0.7% and 1.3%, as follows: M {sub A} = 1.0038 ± 0.0066 M {sub ☉}, M {sub B} = 0.5955 ± 0.0022 M {sub ☉}, R {sub A} = 0.980 ± 0.013 R {sub ☉}, and R {sub B} = 0.5873 ± 0.0067 R {sub ☉}. The effective temperatures are 5890 ± 100 K (G1 V) and 3880 ± 120 K (M1 V), respectively. A detailed chemical analysis probing more than 20 elements in the primary spectrum shows the system to have a slightly subsolar abundance, with [Fe/H] = –0.12 ± 0.08. A comparison with theory reveals that standard models underpredict the radius and overpredict the temperature of the secondary, as has been found previously for other M dwarfs. On the other hand, models from the Dartmouth series incorporating magnetic fields are able to match the observations of the secondary star at the same age as the primary (∼3 Gyr) with a surface field strength of 2.1 ± 0.4 kG when using a rotational dynamo prescription, or 1.3 ± 0.4 kG with a turbulent dynamo approach, not far from our empirical estimate for this star of 0.83 ± 0.65 kG. The observations are most consistent with magnetic fields playing only a small role in changing the global properties of the primary. The V530 Ori system thus provides an important demonstration that recent advances in modeling appear to be on the right track to explain the long-standing problem of radius inflation and temperature suppression in low-mass stars.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2015

Stellar populations of barred quiescent galaxies

Selecting centrally quiescent galaxies from the Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS) to create high signal-to-noise ratio (≳100 Å{sup −1}) stacked spectra with minimal emission-line contamination, we accurately and precisely model the central stellar populations of barred and unbarred quiescent disk galaxies. By splitting our sample by redshift, we can use the fixed size of the SDSS fiber to model the stellar populations at different radii within galaxies. At 0.02<z<0.04, the SDSS fiber radius corresponds to ≈1 kpc, which is the typical half-light radii of both classical bulges and disky pseudobulges. Assuming that the SDSS fiber primarily covers the bulges at these redshifts, our analysis shows that there are no significant differences in the stellar populations, i.e., stellar age, [Fe/H], [Mg/Fe], and [N/Fe], of the bulges of barred versus unbarred quiescent disk galaxies. Modeling the stellar populations at different redshift intervals from z = 0.020 to z = 0.085 at fixed stellar masses produces an estimate of the stellar population gradients out to about half the typical effective radius of our sample, assuming null evolution over this ≈1 Gyr epoch. We find that there are no noticeable differences in the slopes of the azimuthally averaged gradients of barred versus unbarred quiescent disk galaxies. These results suggest that bars are not a strong influence on the chemical evolution of quiescent disk galaxies.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2018

Low thyroid function is not associated with an accelerated deterioration in renal function

Abstract Background Chronic kidney disease (CKD) is frequently accompanied by thyroid hormone dysfunction. It is currently unclear whether these alterations are the cause or consequence of CKD. This study aimed at studying the effect of thyroid hormone alterations on renal function in cross-sectional and longitudinal analyses in individuals from all adult age groups. Methods Individual participant data (IPD) from 16 independent cohorts having measured thyroid stimulating hormone, free thyroxine levels and creatinine levels were included. Thyroid hormone status was defined using clinical cut-off values. Estimated glomerular filtration rates (eGFR) were calculated by means of the four-variable Modification of Diet in Renal Disease (MDRD) formula. For this IPD meta-analysis, eGFR at baseline and eGFR change during follow-up were computed by fitting linear regression models and linear mixed models in each cohort separately. Effect estimates were pooled using random effects models. Results A total of 72 856 individuals from 16 different cohorts were included. At baseline, individuals with overt hypothyroidism (n = 704) and subclinical hypothyroidism (n = 3356) had a average (95% confidence interval) −4.07 (−6.37 to −1.78) and −2.40 (−3.78 to −1.02) mL/min/1.73 m2 lower eGFR as compared with euthyroid subjects (n = 66 542). In (subclinical) hyperthyroid subjects (n = 2254), average eGFR was 3.01 (1.50–4.52) mL/min/1.73 m2 higher. During 329 713 patient years of follow-up, eGFR did not decline more rapidly in individuals with low thyroid function compared with individuals with normal thyroid function. Conclusions Low thyroid function is not associated with a deterioration of renal function. The cross-sectional association may be explained by renal dysfunction causing thyroid hormone alterations.

Meuwese, Christiaan L.↗
DOE OSTI2014

TH-C-18A-08: A Management Tool for CT Dose Monitoring, Analysis, and Protocol Review

Purpose: To develop a customizable tool for enterprise-wide managing of CT protocols and analyzing radiation dose information of CT exams for a variety of quality control applications Methods: All clinical CT protocols implemented on the 11 CT scanners at our institution were extracted in digital format. The original protocols had been preset by our CT management team. A commercial CT dose tracking software (DoseWatch,GE healthcare,WI) was used to collect exam information (exam date, patient age etc.), scanning parameters, and radiation doses for all CT exams. We developed a Matlab-based program (MathWorks,MA) with graphic user interface which allows to analyze the scanning protocols with the actual dose estimates, and compare the data to national (ACR,AAPM) and internal reference values for CT quality control. Results: The CT protocol review portion of our tool allows the user to look up the scanning and image reconstruction parameters of any protocol on any of the installed CT systems among about 120 protocols per scanner. In the dose analysis tool, dose information of all CT exams (from 05/2013 to 02/2014) was stratified on a protocol level, and within a protocol down to series level, i.e. each individual exposure event. This allows numerical and graphical review of dose information of any combination of scanner models, protocols and series. The key functions of the tool include: statistics of CTDI, DLP and SSDE, dose monitoring using user-set CTDI/DLP/SSDE thresholds, look-up of any CT exam dose data, and CT protocol review. Conclusion: our inhouse CT management tool provides radiologists, technologists and administration a first-hand near real-time enterprise-wide knowledge on CT dose levels of different exam types. Medical physicists use this tool to manage CT protocols, compare and optimize dose levels across different scanner models. It provides technologists feedback on CT scanning operation, and knowledge on important dose baselines and thresholds.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Reproductive and leaf litterfall fluxes in forest ecosystem sites globally (1950-2022)

Forest allocation of net primary productivity (NPP) to reproduction is poorly quantified globally, despite its critical role in forest regeneration and a well-supported trade-off with allocation to growth. Although field measurements of total NPP are rare, our work finds that a proxy for reproductive carbon allocation constructed from leaf (L) and reproductive (R) litterfall fluxes, R/(R+L), is strongly correlated with R/NPP, facilitating analysis across a wide range of sites where biometric estimates of NPP are not available (R² = 0.85; Hanbury-Brown et al., 2022, Ward et al., in prep). To investigate relationships between ecosystem-scale reproductive allocation (RA) and climate, soil fertility, and stand age gradients, we conducted a literature search and synthesized 824 observations of annual average leaf and reproductive litterfall fluxes across forest sites globally. The zip file includes 1) a folder Data/ containing the litterfall data ("GlobalForestRA_data.csv") and metadata ("GlobalForestRA_metadata.doc") files. The data file includes geographic coordinates, long-term mean annual temperature and precipitation (1970-2000, extracted from WorldClim2.1), leaf and reproductive litterfall fluxes, sampling interval and protocols, forest characteristics (dominant leaf morphology, information pertaining to forest age and successional stage, and disturbance history) and soil properties (% sand, %silt, %clay, total phosphorus (P), nitrogen (N), cation exchange capacity (CEC) and pH) extracted from SoilGrids250 and from on-site measurements, where available. The metadata file contains information about each variable reported in the data file, including data sources, processing methods, and all references. The Data folder contains two additional files used to create Figure 1; these are described in greater detail in the README.2) R scripts GloalForestRA_analysis.r and GlobalForestRA_SI.r and a folder /Functions used to produce results, figures, and tables in the manuscript Ward et al. (in press)3) a README file describing how the data and R scripts can be used to reproduce statistical results, figures, and tables found in the manuscript. Ward et al. (in press)This repository can also be found at: https://github.com/r-ward/Global_Analysis_ForestRA.Ward, R.E., Zhang-Zheng, H. Aernethy, K., Adu-Bredu, S., Arroyo, L., Bailey, A. et al. (in press). Forest age rivals climate to explain reproductive allocation patterns in forest ecosystems globally. Ecology Letters. Hanbury-Brown, A.R., Ward, R.E. & Kueppers, L.M. (2022). Forest regeneration within Earth system models: current process representations and ways forward. New Phytol., 235, 20–40.Ward et al. (2025), Forest age rivals climate to explain reproductive allocation patterns in forest ecosystems globally, in prep.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Integrated Modeling Report for CO 2 Storage with Enhanced Oil Recovery in Northern Michigan

The Midwest Regional Carbon Sequestration Partnership (MRCSP) was founded in 2003 as part of the U.S. Department of Energy’s (DOE’s) Regional Carbon Sequestration Partnership initiative. Since its founding, MRCSP has made significant strides toward making CCUS a viable option for states in the region. The public/private consortium, funded through the DOE Regional Carbon Sequestration Initiative, brings together nearly 40 industry partners and 10 states. Battelle, as the project lead, oversees research, development and operations and coordinates activities among the partners. The incremental, phased approach has built a valuable knowledge base for the industry and paved the way for commercial-scale adoption of CCUS technologies. From 2008 to 2020, MRCSP Phase III focused on the development of large-scale injection projects. This report is part of a series of reports prepared under the Midwestern Regional Carbon Sequestration Partnership (MRCSP) Phase III (Development Phase). These reports summarize and detail the findings of the work conducted under the Phase III project. MRCSP has been investigating various reservoir characterization and modeling technologies related to Carbon Capture, Utilization, and Storage (CCUS) in conjunction with carbon dioxide enhanced oil recovery (CO 2 -EOR) operations in multiple Silurian-age (Niagaran), oil-bearing, carbonate pinnacle reefs in northern Michigan, USA. This report provides a comprehensive discussion of reservoir modeling studies that were conducted for tracking oil production, forecasting CO 2 plume migration, and estimating associated storage in a number of reefs that were at different stages of their CO 2 -EOR life cycle. The modeling process for simulating oil production, CO 2 injection, and associated storage in these reefs entails two phases. The first phase, geologic framework modeling, integrates all pertinent geological and geophysical data (from logs, cores and seismic surveys) about reservoir structure, geometry, rock types, and property distributions (porosity, permeability, water saturation) into a 3-D distributed grid-based static earth model (SEM). The second phase, dynamic reservoir modeling, uses the SEM as a platform to simulate the movement of oil, gas, water, and CO 2 within the reservoir during primary hydrocarbon production, as well as during subsequent phases such as CO 2 -injection assisted EOR, plume migration, and associated storage. In addition, an assessment of coupled process effects is also carried out, where the impacts of geochemical and geo-mechanical processed induced by CO 2 injection are studied.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗