Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “variables”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 1,387 records · Page 77
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2016

Measuring Solar Doppler Velocities in the He II 30.38 nm Emission Using the EUV Variability Experiment (EVE)

The EUV Variability Experiment (EVE) onboard the Solar Dynamics Observatory has provided unprecedented measurements of the solar EUV irradiance at high temporal cadence with good spectral resolution and range since May 2010. The main purpose of EVE was to connect the Sun to the Earth by providing measurements of the EUV irradianceas a driver for space weather and Living With a Star studies, but after launch the instrument has demonstrated the significance of its measurements in contributing to studies looking at the sources of solar variability for pure solar physics purposes. This paper expands upon previous findings that EVE can in fact measure wavelength shifts during solar eruptive events and therefore provide Doppler velocities for plasma at all temperatures throughout the solar atmosphere from the chromosphere to hot flaring temperatures. This process is not straightforward as EVE was not designed or optimized for these types of measurements. In this paper we describe the many detailed instrumental characterizations needed to eliminate the optical effects in order to provide an absolute baseline for the Doppler shift studies. An example is given of a solar eruption on 7 September 2011 (SOL2011-09-07), associated with an X1.2 flare, where EVE Doppler analysis shows plasma ejected from the Sun in the He II 30.38 nm emission at a velocity of almost 120 km s(exp -1) along the line-of-sight.

Chamberlin, Phillip Clyde↗
NASA NTRS2016

Rotational Properties of the Haumea Family Members and Candidates: Short-Term Variability

Haumea is one of the most interesting and intriguing trans-Neptunian objects (TNOs). It is a large, bright, fast rotator, and its spectrum indicates nearly pure water ice on the surface. It has at least two satellites and a dynamically related family of more than 10 TNOs with very similar proper orbital parameters and similar surface properties. The Haumean family is the only one currently known in the trans-Neptunian belt. Various models have been proposed, but the formation of the family remains poorly understood. In this work, we have investigated the rotational properties of the family members and unconfirmed family candidates with short-term variability studies, and report the most complete review to date. We present results based on five years of observations and report the short-term variability of five family members, and seven candidates. The mean rotational periods, from Maxwellian fits to the frequency distributions, are 6.27 +/- 1.19 hr for the confirmed family members, 6.44 +/- 1.16 hr for the candidates, and 7.65 +/- 0.54 hr for other TNOs (without relation to the family). According to our study, there is a possibility that Haumea family members rotate faster than other TNOs, however, the sample of family member is still too limited for a secure conclusion. We also highlight the fast rotation of 2002 GH(sub 32). This object has a 0.36 +/- 0.02 mag amplitude lightcurve and a rotational period of about 3.98 hr. Assuming 2002 GH(sub 32) is a triaxial object in hydrostatic equilibrium, we derive a lower limit to the density of 2.56 g cm(exp -3). This density is similar to Haumea's and much more dense than other small TNO densities.

Thirouin, Audrey↗
NASA NTRS2017

Variable-Depth Liner Evaluation Using Two NASA Flow Ducts

Four liners are investigated experimentally via tests in the NASA Langley Grazing Flow Impedance Tube. These include an axially-segmented liner and three liners that use reordering of the chambers. Chamber reordering is shown to have a strong effect on the axial sound pressure level profiles, but a limited effect on the overall attenuation. It is also shown that bent chambers can be used to reduce the liner depth with minimal effects on the attenuation. A numerical study is also conducted to explore the effects of a planar and three higher-order mode sources based on the NASA Langley Curved Duct Test Rig geometry. A four-segment liner is designed using the NASA Langley CDL code with a Python-based optimizer. Five additional liner designs, four with rearrangements of the first liner segments and one with a redistribution of the individual chambers, are evaluated for each of the four sources. The liner configuration affects the sound pressure level profile much more than the attenuation spectra for the planar and first two higher-order mode sources, but has a much larger effect on the SPL profiles and attenuation spectra for the last higher-order mode source. Overall, axially variable-depth liners offer the potential to provide improved fan noise reduction, regardless of whether the axially variable depths are achieved via a distributed array of chambers (depths vary from chamber to chamber) or a group of zones (groups of chambers for which the depth is constant).

Jones, M. G.↗
NASA NTRS2017

Variability and Trends in the Arctic Sea Ice Cover: Results from Different Techniques

Variability and trend studies of sea ice in the Arctic have been conducted using products derived from the same raw passive microwave data but by different groups using different algorithms. This study provides consistency assessment of four of the leading products, namely, Goddard Bootstrap (SB2), Goddard NASA Team (NT1), EUMETSAT Ocean and Sea Ice Satellite Application Facility (OSI-SAF 1.2), and Hadley HadISST 2.2 data in evaluating variability and trends in the Arctic sea ice cover. All four provide generally similar ice patterns but significant disagreements in ice concentration distributions especially in the marginal ice zone and adjacent regions in winter and meltponded areas in summer. The discrepancies are primarily due to different ways the four techniques account for occurrences of new ice and meltponding. However, results show that the different products generally provide consistent and similar representation of the state of the Arctic sea ice cover. Hadley and NT1 data usually provide the highest and lowest monthly ice extents, respectively. The Hadley data also show the lowest trends in ice extent and ice area at negative 3.88 percent decade and negative 4.37 percent decade, respectively, compared to an average of negative 4.36 percent decade and negative 4.57 percent decade for all four. Trend maps also show similar spatial distribution for all four with the largest negative trends occurring at the Kara/Barents Sea and Beaufort Sea regions, where sea ice has been retreating the fastest. The good agreement of the trends especially with updated data provides strong confidence in the quantification of the rate of decline in the Arctic sea ice cover.

Arctic↗
NASA NTRS2017

The Broadband Spectral Variability of Holmberg IX X-1

We present results from four new broadband X-ray observations of the extreme ultraluminous X-ray source Holmberg IX X-1 (L (sub X) greater than 10 (sup 40) ergs per second), performed by Suzaku and NuSTAR in coordination. Combined with the archival data, we now have broadband observations of this remarkable source from six separate epochs. Two of these new observations probe lower fluxes than seen previously, allowing us to extend our knowledge of the broadband spectral variability exhibited. The spectra are well fit by two thermal blackbody components that dominate the emission below 10 kiloelectronvolts, as well as a steep (Gamma approximately equal to 3.5) power-law tail thatdominates above approximately 15 kiloelectronvolts. Remarkably, while the 0.3-10.0 kiloelectronvolts flux varies by a factor of approximately 3 between all these epochs, the 15-40 kiloelectronvolts flux varies by only approximately 20 percent. Although the spectral variability is strongest in the approximately 1-10 kiloelectronvolts band, both of the thermal components are required to vary when all epochs are considered. We also revisit the search for iron absorption features by leveraging the high-energy NuSTAR data to improve our sensitivity to extreme velocity outflows in light of the ultra-fast outflow recently detected in NGC 1313 X-1. Iron absorption from a similar outflow along our line of sight can be ruled out in this case. We discuss these results in the context of super-Eddington accretion models that invoke a funnel-like geometry for the inner flow, and propose a scenario in which we have an almost face-on view of a funnel that expands to larger radii with increasing flux, resulting in an increasing degree of geometrical collimation for the emission from intermediate-temperature regions.

X-rays: binaries↗
NASA NTRS2017

Semi-Supervised Learning of Lift Optimization of Multi-Element Three-Segment Variable Camber Airfoil

This chapter describes a new intelligent platform for learning optimal designs of morphing wings based on Variable Camber Continuous Trailing Edge Flaps (VCCTEF) in conjunction with a leading edge flap called the Variable Camber Krueger (VCK). The new platform consists of a Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) methodology coupled with a semi-supervised learning methodology. The CFD component of the intelligent platform comprises of a full Navier-Stokes solution capability (NASA OVERFLOW solver with Spalart-Allmaras turbulence model) that computes flow over a tri-element inboard NASA Generic Transport Model (GTM) wing section. Various VCCTEF/VCK settings and configurations were considered to explore optimal design for high-lift flight during take-off and landing. To determine globally optimal design of such a system, an extremely large set of CFD simulations is needed. This is not feasible to achieve in practice. To alleviate this problem, a recourse was taken to a semi-supervised learning (SSL) methodology, which is based on manifold regularization techniques. A reasonable space of CFD solutions was populated and then the SSL methodology was used to fit this manifold in its entirety, including the gaps in the manifold where there were no CFD solutions available. The SSL methodology in conjunction with an elastodynamic solver (FiDDLE) was demonstrated in an earlier study involving structural health monitoring. These CFD-SSL methodologies define the new intelligent platform that forms the basis for our search for optimal design of wings. Although the present platform can be used in various other design and operational problems in engineering, this chapter focuses on the high-lift study of the VCK-VCCTEF system. Top few candidate design configurations were identified by solving the CFD problem in a small subset of the design space. The SSL component was trained on the design space, and was then used in a predictive mode to populate a selected set of test points outside of the given design space. The new design test space thus populated was evaluated by using the CFD component by determining the error between the SSL predictions and the true (CFD) solutions, which was found to be small. This demonstrates the proposed CFD-SSL methodologies for isolating the best design of the VCK-VCCTEF system, and it holds promise for quantitatively identifying best designs of flight systems, in general.

Intelligent Systems↗
NASA NTRS2017

Progress Report on the Airborne Composition Standard Variable Name and Time Series Working Groups of the 2017 ESDSWG

The role of NASA's Earth Science Data Systems Working Groups (ESDSWG) is to make recommendations relevant to NASA's Earth science data systems from users' experiences and community insight. Each group works independently, focusing on a unique topic. Progress of two of the 2017 Working Groups will be presented. In a single airborne field campaign, there can be several different instruments and techniques that measure the same parameter on one or more aircraft platforms. Many of these same parameters are measured during different airborne campaigns using similar or different instruments and techniques. The Airborne Composition Standard Variable Name Working Group is working to create a list of variable standard names that can be used across all airborne field campaigns in order to assist in the transition to the ICARTT Version 2.0 file format. The overall goal is to enhance the usability of ICARTT files and the search ability of airborne field campaign data. The Time Series Working Group (TSWG) is a continuation of the 2015 and 2016 Time Series Working Groups. In 2015, we started TSWG with the intention of exploring the new OGC (Open Geospatial Consortium) WaterML 2 standards as a means for encoding point-based time series data from NASA satellites. In this working group, we realized that WaterML 2 might not be the best solution for this type of data, for a number of reasons. Our discussion with experts from other agencies, who have worked on similar issues, identified several challenges that we would need to address. As a result, we made the recommendation to study the new TimeseriesML 1.0 standard of OGC as a potential NASA time series standard. The 2016 TSWG examined closely the TimeseriesML 1.0 and, in coordination with the OGC TimeseriesML Standards Working Group, identified certain gaps in TimeseriesML 1.0 that would need to be addressed for the standard to be applicable to NASA time series data. An engineering report was drafted based on the OGC Engineering Report template, describing recommended changes to TimeseriesML 1.0, in the form of use cases. In 2017, we are conducting interoperability experiments to implement the use cases and demonstrate the feasibility and suitability of these modifications for NASA and related user communities. The results will be incorporated into the existing draft engineering report.

OGC (Open Geospatial Consortium) WaterML 2 standar↗
NASA NTRS2017

Variability and Quasi-Decadal Changes in the Methane Budget over the Period 2000-2012

Following the recent Global Carbon Project (GCP) synthesis of the decadal methane (CH4) budget over 2000- 2012, we analyse here the same dataset with a focus on quasi-decadal and inter-annual variability in CH4 emissions. The GCP dataset integrates results from top-down studies (exploiting atmospheric observations within an atmospheric inverse-modelling framework) and bottom-up models (including process-based models for estimating land surface emissions and atmospheric chemistry), inventories of anthropogenic emissions, and data-driven approaches. The annual global methane emissions from top-down studies, which by construction match the observed methane growth rate within their uncertainties, all show an increase in total methane emissions over the period 2000-2012, but this increase is not linear over the 13 years. Despite differences between individual studies, the mean emission anomaly of the top-down ensemble shows no significant trend in total methane emissions over the period 2000-2006, during the plateau of atmospheric methane mole fractions, and also over the period 2008-2012, during the renewed atmospheric methane increase. However, the top-down ensemble mean produces an emission shift between 2006 and 2008, leading to 22 [16-32] Tg CH4 yr(exp -1) higher methane emissions over the period 2008-2012 compared to 2002-2006. This emission increase mostly originated from the tropics, with a smaller contribution from mid-latitudes and no significant change from boreal regions. The regional contributions remain uncertain in top-down studies. Tropical South America and South and East Asia seem to contribute the most to the emission increase in the tropics. However, these two regions have only limited atmospheric measurements and remain therefore poorly constrained. The sectorial partitioning of this emission increase between the periods 2002-2006 and 2008-2012 differs from one atmospheric inversion study to another. However, all top-down studies suggest smaller changes in fossil fuel emissions (from oil, gas, and coal industries) compared to the mean of the bottom-up inventories included in this study. This difference is partly driven by a smaller emission change in China from the top-down studies compared to the estimate in the Emission Database for Global Atmospheric Research (EDGARv4.2) inventory, which should be revised to smaller values in a near future. We apply isotopic signatures to the emission changes estimated for individual studies based on five emission sectors and find that for six individual top-down studies (out of eight) the average isotopic signature of the emission changes is not consistent with the observed change in atmospheric 13CH4. However, the partitioning in emission change derived from the ensemble mean is consistent with this isotopic constraint. At the global scale, the top-down ensemble mean suggests that the dominant contribution to the resumed atmospheric CH4 growth after 2006 comes from microbial sources (more from agriculture and waste sectors than from natural wetlands), with an uncertain but smaller contribution from fossil CH4 emissions. In addition, a decrease in biomass burning emissions (in agreement with the biomass burning emission databases) makes the balance of sources consistent with atmospheric 13CH4 observations. In most of the top-down studies included here, OH concentrations are considered constant over the years (seasonal variations but without any inter-annual variability). As a result, the methane loss (in particular through OH oxidation) varies mainly through the change in methane concentrations and not its oxidants. For these reasons, changes in the methane loss could not be properly investigated in this study, although it may play a significant role in the recent atmospheric methane changes as briefly discussed at the end of the paper.

Saunois, Marielle↗
NASA NTRS2018

Managing Variability: A Cognitive Ethnography of the Work of Airline Dispatchers

Airline dispatchers' workflow is often described in broad terms like 'flight planning' and 'flight following'. Such high-level descriptions fail to recognize the number and complexity of tasks involved in these activities. An ethnographic study was conducted at three US airlines to understand the cognitive workload involved in flight planning. Fuel planning was identified as one of five key flight planning tasks. Fuel planning was conducted concurrently with other planning and monitoring tasks which often led to interruptions. Planning fuel was dynamic, with recalculations required whenever other factors varied (e.g., payload, route, alternates). This rework increased workload and opportunities for error while reducing efficiency. Four main factors contributed variability to fuel planning: contingency planning, load planning, pilots, and station operations. Strategies for managing variability included pattern identification, use of buffers, rounding up, and leveraging software tools. Software design often added to workload by forcing dispatchers to attend to low level tasks.

dispatcher↗
NASA NTRS2018

Variable Permeability Magnetometer Systems and Methods for Aerospace Applications

A magnetometer configured to measure low field strength magnetic fields is provided. Certain embodiments of the magnetometer include a cylindrical coil assembly having a variable permeability core and terminals disposed at both ends. A current source circuit may be operably connected to the terminals and configured to apply a voltage controlled current across the terminals. A voltage readout circuit may be operably connected to the terminals and configured to measure a voltage across the terminals due to the applied current from the current source. An inductance of the coil assembly directly varies as an ambient magnetic field strength varies a permeability of the variable permeability core, and a voltage across the terminals varies directly with the inductance such that the measured voltage across the terminals is a direct measure of the ambient magnetic field strength.

Shams, Qamar A.↗
NASA NTRS2017

Evaluation of a Variable Thickness Hybrid Composite Bull Gear

For several years, NASA Glenn Research Center and the U.S. Army Research Laboratory have been investigating hybrid (composite/steel) gear technology for use in vertical lift drive systems. The hybrid gear concept replaces the structural portion of a gear between the shaft and the gear rim with a lightweight carbon fiber composite, in an effort to reduce the overall weight of a gear and increase the drive system power density. Past research includes both small-scale and large-scale hybrid gear concepts, all of which have a constant composite thickness throughout. The design described in this paper is of a variable thickness, such that the composite is thickest at the inner diameter and this thickness is gradually reduced toward the outer diameter. The resulting "stair stepped" design stems from dropping plies of the braided carbon fiber prepreg composite fabric gradually with increased radius. Additionally, the interlock pattern at the inner metallic adapter was adjusted slightly from previous designs to obtain a better stress distribution on the inner metallic adapter. The manufactured variable thickness web was tested both in static torsion tests and operationally in a relevant gearbox environment. The results of these experiments will be presented and compared to a baseline steel configuration.

Gears; Drive Systems; Rotorcraft Propulsion;↗
NASA NTRS2018

Evaluation of a Variable Thickness Hybrid Composite Bull Gear

For several years, NASA Glenn Research Center and the U.S. Army Research Laboratory have been investigating hybrid (compositesteel) gear technology for use in vertical lift drive systems. The hybrid gear concept replaces the structural portion of a gear between the shaft and the gear rim with a lightweight carbon fiber composite, in an effort to reduce the overall weight of a gear and increase the drive system power density. An overview of the concept of the hybrid gear design is described in Ref. 1, 2, and 3. The research presented in these references includes both small-scale and large-scale hybrid gear concepts all of which have a constant composite thickness throughout. The design described in this paper is of a variable thickness, such that the composite is thickest at the inner diameter and this thickness is gradually reduced toward the outer diameter. The resulting stair stepped design stems from dropping plies of the braided carbon fiber composite fabric gradually with increased radius. Additionally, the interlock pattern at the inner metallic adapter was adjusted slightly from previous designs to obtain a better stress distribution on the inner metallic adapter. The manufactured variable thickness web was tested both in static torsion tests and operationally in a relevant gearbox environment. The results of these experiments will be presented and compared to a baseline steel configuration.

Rotorcraft Propulsion↗
NASA NTRS2018

Atmosphere-Ocean Coupled Data Assimilation Using NASA GEOS: Estimation of Air-Sea Interface State Variables

Air-sea interface variables, such as the skin Sea Surface Temperature (SST) are essential for atmosphere-ocean coupling. In the NASA GMAO Data Assimilation System (DAS), the skin SST and 3-D atmospheric state are jointly estimated [1]. This presentation is focused on the prior or background error covariance that is used in this analysis. The GEOS DAS uses an ensemble-variational assimilation strategy. In that, specification of a climatological background (CB) error covariance for SST relies on the NOAA's OI SST, with estimates of standard deviation and correlation length scales based on weekly analyses of the bulk SST at 1 degree resolution. However, present analysis system is striving to resolve SST diurnal variability with six hourly analyses and assimilates a vast number of in-situ and satellite observations. The first part of this presentation re-derives the CB error covariance using OSTIA SST analyses and illustrates the impact of this update on assimilating satellite observations. In a hybrid assimilation system the CB error covariances are appended with a flow-dependent background error covariance estimate implied by the underlying ensemble. The second part of this presentation refers to: a. treatment of the skin SST in the ensemble members, b. corresponding ensemble spread, and c. impact of these additions on the data assimilation system. [1] S. Akella, et al. (2017), doi:10.1002/qj.2988

Akella, Santha↗
NASA NTRS2018

Using Satellite Measurements of N2O to Remove Dynamical Variability from HCl Measurements

Column HCl measurements show deviations from the expected slow decline following the regulation of chlorine-containing compounds by the Montreal Protocol. We use the simultaneous measurements of N2O and HCl by the Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) instrument on the Aura satellite to examine this problem. We find that the use of N2O measurements at a specific altitude to represent the impact of dynamical variability on HCl results in a derived linear trend in HCl that is negative (ranging from -2.5 to 5.3%decade-1) at all altitudes between 68 and 10 hPa. These trends are at or near 2 sigma statistical significance at all pressure levels between 68 and 10 hPa. This shows that analysis of simultaneous measurements of several constituents is a useful approach to identify small trends from data records that are strongly influenced by dynamical interannual variability.

Stolarski, Richard↗
NASA NTRS2015

Connections Between the TTL and Sea Surface Temperatures: Interannual Variability and Trends

Comprehensive chemistry climate models and satellite data are used to investigate the forcing of variability in the tropical lower stratosphere and upper troposphere. As this region is the origination region for air parcels which enter the stratosphere, it is important to understand variability in this region on timescales ranging from the seasonal to decadal. The warming trend in the tropical upper troposphere over the past 30 years is strongest near the Indo Pacific warm pool, while the warming trend in the western and central Pacific is much weaker. In the lower stratosphere, these trends are reversed: the historical cooling trend is strongest over the Indo Pacific warm pool and is weakest in the western and central Pacific. These zonal variations are stronger than the zonal mean response in boreal winter. Targeted experiments with a chemistry climate model are used to demonstrate that sea surface temperature trends are driving the zonal asymmetry in upper tropospheric and lower stratospheric tropical temperature trends. The anomalous circulation set up by the changing SSTs has led to zonal structure in the ozone and water vapor trends near the tropopause, and subsequently to less water vapor entering the stratosphere. Projected future sea surface temperatures appear to drive a temperature and water vapor response whose zonal structure is similar to the historical response. In the lower stratosphere, the changes in water vapor and temperature due to projected future sea surface temperatures is of similar strength to, though slightly weaker than, that due directly to projected future CO2, ozone, and methane. Finally, targeted experiments with a chemistry climate model are used to demonstrate that seasonality and the location of the peak warming of sea surface temperatures dictate the response of stratospheric water vapor to El Nino. In spring, El Nino events in which sea surface temperature anomalies peak in the eastern Pacific lead to a warming at the tropopause above the warm pool region, and subsequently to more stratospheric water vapor (consistent with previous work). However, in fall and in early winter, and also during El Nino events in which the sea surface temperature anomaly is found mainly in the central Pacific, the response is qualitatively different: temperature changes in the warm pool region are nonuniform and less water vapor enters the stratosphere. The difference in water vapor in the lower stratosphere between the two variants of El Nino approaches 0.3 ppmv, while the difference between the winter and spring responses exceeds 0.5 ppmv.

Tropical Tropopause Layer↗
NASA NTRS2018

Performance of Variable Coded Modulations over a Nonlinear Channel for VCM Protocol Red Book

This presentation provides a summary of the results obtained from a study which evaluates the performance of variable coded modulations specified in the "Variable Coded Modulation Protocol" CCSDS Red Book, over a nonlinear channel that is currently on the CCSDS Blue Book track. The objectives are to perform simulation that identifies the operating signal-to-noise-power ratio required to achieve a codeword error rate of 1e-4 over the specified nonlinear channel for various modulations (i.e. BPSK, QPSK, 8-PSK) and LDPC coding schemes, and compare against performance over an ideal additive white Gaussian channel. We select a only subset of operating modes to perform the analysis which are based on a number of mitigation techniques to combat the nonlinear distortions. Specifically, transmitter centroidal pre-distortion, phase post-distortion and receiver mean phase estimation are analyzed in this study.

coding↗
NASA NTRS2018

The Chaotic Long-Term X-Ray Variability of 4U 1705-44

The low-mass X-ray binary 4U1705-44 exhibits dramatic long-term X-ray time variability with a time-scale of several hundred days. The All-SkyMonitor (ASM) aboard the Rossi X-ray Timing Explorer (RXTE) and the Japanese Monitor of All-sky X-ray Image (MAXI) aboard the International Space Station together have continuously observed the source from 1995 December through 2014 May. The combined ASM-MAXI data provide a continuous time series over 50 times the length of the time-scale of interest. Topological analysis can help us identify 'fingerprints' in the phase space of a system unique to its equations of motion. The Birman-Williams theorem postulates that if such fingerprints are the same between two systems, then their equations of motion must be closely related. The phase-space embedding of the source light curve shows a strong resemblance to the double-welled non-linear Duffing oscillator. We explore a range of parameters for which the Duffing oscillator closely mirrors the time evolution of 4U1705-44. We extract low period, unstable periodic orbits from the 4U1705-44 and Duffing time series and compare their topological information. The Duffing and 4U1705-44 topological properties are identical, providing strong evidence that they share the same underlying template. This suggests that we can look to the Duffing equation to help guide the development of a physical model to describe the long-term X-ray variability of this and other similarly behaved X-ray binary systems.

Rossi X-ray Timing Explorer (RXTE)↗
NASA NTRS2018

Average Versus High Surface Ozone Levels over the Continental USA: Model Bias, Background Influences, and Interannual Variability

US background ozone (O3) includes O3 produced from anthropogenic O3 precursors emitted outside of the USA, from global methane, and from any natural sources. Using a suite of sensitivity simulations in the GEOS-Chem global chemistry transport model, we estimate the influence from individual background sources versus US anthropogenic sources on total surface O3 over 10 continental US regions from 2004 to 2012. Evaluation with observations reveals model biases of +0-19ppb in seasonal mean maximum daily 8h average (MDA8) O3, highest in summer over the eastern USA. Simulated high-O3 events cluster too late in the season. We link these model biases to excessive regional O3 production (e.g., US anthropogenic, biogenic volatile organic compounds (BVOCs), and soil NOx, emissions), or coincident missing sinks. On the 10 highest observed O3 days during summer (O3_top10obs_JJA), US anthropogenic emissions enhance O3 by 5-11ppb and by less than 2ppb in the eastern versus western USA. The O3 enhancement from BVOC emissions during summer is 1-7 ppb higher on O3_top10obs_JJA days than on average days, while intercontinental pollution is up to 2ppb higher on average versus on O3_top10obs_JJA days. During the summers of 2004-2012, monthly regional mean US background O3 MDA8 levels vary by up to 15ppb from year to year. Observed and simulated summertime total surface O3 levels on O3_top10obs_JJA days decline by 3ppb (averaged over all regions) from 2004-2006 to 2010-2012, reflecting rising US background (+2ppb) and declining US anthropogenic O3 emissions (6ppb) in the model. The model attributes interannual variability in US background O3 on O3_top10obs days to natural sources, not international pollution transport. We find that a 3-year averaging period is not long enough to eliminate interannual variability in background O3 on the highest observed O3 days.

Guo, Jean J.↗