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At least 1,387 records · Page 77
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2019

Log-Correlated Large-Deviation Statistics Governing Huygens Fronts in Turbulence

Analyses have disagreed on whether the velocity u T of bulk advancement of a Huygens front in turbulence vanishes or remains finite in the limit of vanishing local front propagation speed u 0 . Here, a connection to the large-deviation statistics of log-correlated random processes enables a definitive determination of the correct small- u 0 asymptotics. This result reconciles several theoretical and phenomenological perspectives with the conclusion that u T remains finite for vanishing u 0 , which implies a propagation anomaly akin to the energy-dissipation anomaly in the limit of vanishing viscosity. Various leading-order structural properties such as a novel u 0 dependence of a bulk length scale associated with front geometry are predicted in this limit. As a result, the analysis involves a formal analogy to random advection of diffusive scalars.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2018

Flexible classification with spatial quantile comparison and novel statistical features applied to spent nuclear fuel analysis

Multivariate classification algorithms are a common tool in contemporary data science that have begun to be applied to nuclear forensic analyses. Using a multivariate generalization of quantile–quantile plots for comparing unknown statistical distributions, a new model-free multivariate classifier called the Quantile–Quantile Comparator has been developed and tested on the analysis of simulated irradiated nuclear fuel. A method to estimate the sample-specific probability of having made an incorrect classification decision by analyzing the distribution of quantile comparisons has been developed, and methods have been developed to analyze the partition of the known data library used to analyze unknown data. By analyzing this partition, the analyst may identify classes that are likely to be confused, identify test data that are inconsistent with the data library and return a “None-of-the-Above” classification decision, and optimize the class boundaries. In this paper, the development of these capabilities is described, and a case study using real experimental assay data collected from nuclear fuel extracted from the newly-released In conclusion, Spent Fuel Isotopic Composition Database to demonstrate the efficacy of these capabilities is presented.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2026

Near-Real-Time Statistical Analysis and Visualization of Streamflow from a Deep-Learning Rainfall-Runoff Model

Near-real-time (NRT) streamflow data are critical importance for timely water resources management. Here, we developed an open-source tool, FlowStats, for NRT streamflow analysis and visualization in Germany, based on NRT meteorological data from the German Weather Service and simulated streamflow from a long short-term memory neural network (LSTM). The LSTM model achieved very good overall performance, median NSE of 0.80 for the test period across 1,479 catchments. FlowStats provides options for deriving various streamflow statistics, from normal and abnormal streamflow detection to drought and flood analyses. An example analysis from FlowStats revealed widespread below-normal to extreme low-flow conditions across Germany from March to May 2025, which weakened from June to September 2025. Drought analysis for September 2025 highlighted severe to extreme drought conditions in northwestern Germany, while flood classifications indicated that high-flow events occurred in southwestern Germany. FlowStats can be used for various hydrological assessments to support water resources management.

Hydrological modeling↗
DOE OSTI2019

Statistical Strength Analysis of Dissimilar AA2024-T6 and AA6061-T6 Friction Stir Welded Joints

Friction stir welding has been emerged as one of the most reliable processes for joining aerospace-grade aluminum alloys. However, limited studies have been focused so far on the reliability of these joint types. In this study, the effect of welding parameters (traverse and rotation speeds) on the fracture strength of dissimilar AA2024-T6 and AA6061-T6 friction stir welded joints was statistically analyzed by the Weibull approach. Based on the results, the Weibull approach was found to be much more accurate than widely used standard deviation for evaluating the scatter of the fracture strength data. The improper selection of the process parameters not only decreased the average fracture strengths of the joints, but also scattered them around the mean value, and increased the failure probability under the same applied tension. According to the microscopic and macroscopic examinations and microhardness measurements, although the microstructural inhomogeneities caused by the improper setting of the welding parameters negatively affected the joints hardness and fracture strength, the welding defects were likely to be the most responsible factor affecting the fracture strength and its reliability.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2021

High-Throughput Statistical Interrogation of Mechanical Properties with Build Plate Location and Powder Reuse in AlSi10Mg

Abstract Additive manufacturing (AM) allows agile, rapid manufacturing of geometrically complex components that would otherwise be impossible through traditional manufacturing methods. With this maturing manufacturing technology comes the need to adopt testing methods that are commensurate with the speed of additive manufacturing and take advantage of its geometric flexibility. High-throughput tensile testing (HTT) is a technique that allows a large number of tensile bars to be tested in a short amount of time. In the present study, HTT is used to evaluate AM AlSi10Mg produced using powder bed fusion with a Renishaw AM250 machine. Three parameters were varied in this study: (1) powder reuse history, (2) location on the build plate, and (3) size of the tensile specimen. For all parameter combinations, at least 22 specimens were tested; in several cases, over 40 were tested. This large dataset, consisting of over 500 tensile tests, permits Weibull statistical analysis and provides sufficient fidelity to isolate subtle trends that would have likely been missed in smaller, traditional datasets. The observed trends are rationalized in terms of the role of porosity and surface crust on mechanical response.

Carroll, Jay D. (ORCID:0000000258184709)↗
DOE OSTI2017

Statistical Characterization of Fracture in CFRP-Concrete Interfaces Due to Wet-Dry Cycling

The experimental fracture mechanics Single Contoured-Cantilever Beam (SCCB) specimen was implemented to evaluate environmentally conditioned concrete-CFRP interfaces. Fracture studies were conducted on specimens having undergone 10, 20 and 30 cycles of alternate wetting and drying. Half of the 24 conditioned specimens studied were placed in a 10% sodium sulfate solution (pH = 6.2–6.5) and half were soaked in sodium hydroxide (pH = 12) to simulate naturally occurring acidic and alkaline field exposure-conditions, respectively. At the end of each target age, SCCB fracture testing was conducted. Two approaches were used in determining the fracture toughness of the CFRP-concrete interface bond that depend on the proper identification of loads reaching a critical state, P{sub c}. In the first, the topmost, or “head”, −initiation and -arrestment loads were averaged, and in the second, the mean of the entire “set” of -initiation and -arrestment loads was taken. This raw-data was then reduced by a statistical-based method from which a range of permissible critical loads was designated. The final G{sub Ic} values cited are based on an averaging of this refined data. Considerable degradation of the CFRP-concrete interface bond resulted especially for cases of latter-stage cycling in the aggressive sodium-sulfate and -hydroxide solutions.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2020

A spatial-statistical investigation of surface expressions associated with cyclic steaming in the Midway-Sunset Oil Field, California

In the Midway Sunset Oil Field in Central California, operators inject steam into the shallow diatomite formation to enhance heavy oil recovery through imbibition, wettability alteration, and viscosity reduction, among other mechanisms. The injected steam, however, does not always remain in the reservoir or return through the wells. In two zones in the study area, the steam comes out at the surface, creating sinkholes, seeps, and steam outlets. These phenomena, called “surface expressions,” pose safety and environmental hazards. Even though these surface expressions are a widespread problem in Central California, they are not well documented and understood. Possible causes of the surface expressions include: high injection pressure, structurally controlled flow patterns, leakage of steam through old improperly abandoned wells, high injection volumes, or flow along naturally occurring faults, among other possible factors. This work examines attributes of the zones with surface expressions in order to determine factors that may contribute to their occurrence. Spatial statistical analysis using logistic regression, random forests, and classification trees is used to explore the relationship between the surface expressions and geological and production-related attributes. The results point to a significant spatial correlation between the surface expressions and two predictors: concentration of plugged wells and geologic seal thickness. The results guide follow-up studies to further investigate the role of well abandonment and seal thickness in the occurrence of surface expressions.

02 PETROLEUM↗
DOE OSTI2015

Hardening in thermally-aged Fe–Cr binary alloys: Statistical parameters of atomistic configuration

Through exploiting Monte Carlo methodology and molecular dynamics, we computationally simulate the spinodal decomposition of iron–chromium binary alloys and analyze the relationship between the increase of yield strength induced by the phase separation phenomenon, and statistical parameters of the atomistic configuration. We successfully model the experimentally-discovered proportional relationship between the hardness and the variation parameter (or V), and also found that the adequacy of the parameter V as an empirical indicator of hardening is limited, because it does not properly capture short-range atomistic configurations that influence the hardening. We anticipate that the short-range-order parameter has more potential to become universal descriptor of the phenomenon.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2026

A statistical approach to analyzing domain dynamics in ferroelectric crystals using X-ray photon correlation spectroscopy

Ferroelectric materials exhibit strong electromechanical coupling, largely influenced by their domain structures. Numerous microstructural studies indicate that smaller domains with higher domain wall density generally enhance domain wall motion, although some inconsistencies have been reported. In this work, we use X-ray photon correlation spectroscopy (XPCS) to probe dynamic response in Pb(Mg 1/3 Nb 2/3 )O 3 -29PbTiO 3 (PMN-29PT) single crystals under applied electric fields. We introduce a two-field correlation approach, adapted from conventional two-time correlation to quantify dynamics. Statistical analysis reveals that both [001]-oriented direct current (DC) and alternating current (AC) poled samples show Poisson-like behavior within specific electric field regions. The DC-poled samples exhibit more frequent domain wall jump events but with smaller amount of decorrelation per jump event, whereas the AC-poled samples show fewer jump events with larger decorrelation per jump event. This observation aligns with the prevalence of 109° domain walls in the AC-poled samples, which contribute to more domain wall motion. These findings provide experimental evidence of collective domain wall motion and establish a direct connection between mesoscale dynamics and electromechanical response.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2018

Level density of the sd-nuclei—Statistical shell-model predictions

Accurate knowledge of the nuclear level density is important both from a theoretical viewpoint as a powerful instrument for studying nuclear structure and for numerous applications. For example, astrophysical reactions responsible for the nucleosynthesis in the universe can be understood only if we know the nuclear level density. We use the configuration-interaction nuclear shell model to predict nuclear level density for all nuclei in the sd-shell, both total and for individual spins (only with positive parity). To avoid the diagonalization in large model spaces we use the moments method based on statistical properties of nuclear many-body systems. In the cases where the diagonalization is possible, the results of the moments method practically coincide with those from the shell-model calculations. Using the computed level densities, we fit the parameters of the Constant Temperature phenomenological model, which can be used by practitioners in their studies of nuclear reactions at excitation energies appropriate for the sd-shell nuclei.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Nuclear β − -decay with statistical de-excitation

he accurate description of nuclear β − -decay has far-reaching consequences for applications spanning nuclear reactors to the creation of heavy elements in astrophysical environments. We present the nuclear particle spectra associated with the β -decay of neutron-rich nuclei calculated with the well benchmarked coupled Quasi-particle Random Phase Approximation and Hauser–Feshbach (QRPA+HF) model. This approach begins with the population of the daughter nucleus via semi-microscopic Gamow-Teller or First-Forbidden strength distributions (QRPA) and follows the statistical de-excitation (HF) until the initial available excitation energy is exhausted. At each stage of de-excitation the emission by neutrons and $γ$-rays is considered obeying quantum mechanical selection rules. For completeness we also provide parsed Auger and Internal Conversion (IC) electron spectra from Evaluated Nuclear Data Files (ENDF). Our results are tabulated and provided in parsable ASCII formatted tables that are suitable for inclusion in various applications.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2017

Statistical approach to tunneling time in attosecond experiments

Tunneling, transport of particles through classically forbidden regions, is a pure quantum phenomenon. It governs numerous phenomena ranging from single-molecule electronics to donor–acceptor transition reactions. The main problem is the absence of a universal method to compute tunneling time. This problem has been attacked in various ways in the literature. Here, in the present work, we show that a statistical approach to the problem, motivated by the imaginary nature of time in the forbidden regions, lead to a novel tunneling time formula which is real and subluminal (in contrast to various known time definitions implying superluminal tunneling). In addition to this, we show explicitly that the entropic time formula is in good agreement with the tunneling time measurements in laser-driven He ionization. Moreover, it sets an accurate range for long-range electron transfer reactions. The entropic time formula is general enough to extend to the photon and phonon tunneling phenomena.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2021

An SYK-inspired model with density–density interactions: Spectral & wave function statistics, Green’s function and phase diagram

The Sachdev–Ye–Kitaev (SYK) model is a rare example of a strongly-interacting system that is analytically tractable. Tractability arises because the model is largely structureless by design and therefore artificial: while the interaction is restricted to two-body terms, interaction matrix elements are “randomized” and therefore the corresponding interaction operator does not commute with the local density. Unlike conventional density–density-type interactions, the SYK-interaction is, in this sense, not integrable. We here investigate a variant of the (complex) SYK model, which restores this integrability. It features a randomized single-body term and a density–density-type interaction. We present numerical investigations suggesting that the model exhibits two integrable phases separated by several intermediate phases including a chaotic one. The chaotic phase carries several characteristic SYK-signatures including in the spectral statistics and the frequency scaling of the Green’s function and therefore should be adiabatically connected to the non-Fermi liquid phase of the original SYK model. Thus, our model Hamiltonian provides a bridge from the SYK-model towards microscopic realism.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2020

Day-ahead photovoltaic power production forecasting methodology based on machine learning and statistical post-processing

A main challenge towards ensuring large-scale and seamless integration of photovoltaic systems is to improve the accuracy of energy yield forecasts, especially in grid areas of high photovoltaic shares. The scope of this paper is to address this issue by presenting a unified methodology for hourly-averaged day-ahead photovoltaic power forecasts with improved accuracy, based on data-driven machine learning techniques and statistical post-processing. More specifically, the proposed forecasting methodology framework comprised of a data quality stage, data-driven power output machine learning model development (artificial neural networks), weather clustering assessment (K-means clustering), post-processing output optimisation (linear regressive correction method) and the final performance accuracy evaluation. The results showed that the application of linear regression coefficients to the forecasted outputs of the developed day-ahead photovoltaic power production neural network improved the performance accuracy by further correcting solar irradiance forecasting biases. The resulting optimised model provided a mean absolute percentage error of 4.7% when applied to historical system datasets. Finally, the model was validated both, at a hot as well as a cold semi-arid climatic location, and the obtained results demonstrated close agreement by yielding forecasting accuracies of mean absolute percentage error of 4.7% and 6.3%, respectively. Finally, the validation analysis provides evidence that the proposed model exhibits high performance in both forecasting accuracy and stability.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2017

H/D exchange mass spectrometry and statistical coupling analysis reveal a role for allostery in a ferredoxin-dependent bifurcating transhydrogenase catalytic cycle

Recent investigations into ferredoxin-dependent transhydrogenases, a class of enzymes responsible for electron transport, have highlighted the biological importance of flavin-based electron bifurcation (FBEB). FBEB generates biomolecules with very low reduction potential by coupling the oxidation of an electron donor with intermediate potential to the reduction of high and low potential molecules. Bifurcating systems can generate biomolecules with very low reduction potentials, such as reduced ferredoxin (Fd), from species such as NADPH. Metabolic systems that use bifurcation are more efficient and confer a competitive advantage for the organisms that harbor them. Structural models are now available for two NADH-dependent ferredoxin-NADP + oxidoreductase (Nfn) complexes. These models, together with spectroscopic studies, have provided considerable insight into the catalytic process of FBEB. However, much about the mechanism and regulation of these multi-subunit proteins remains unclear. Using hydrogen/deuterium exchange mass spectrometry (HDX-MS) and statistical coupling analysis (SCA), we identified in this work specific pathways of communication within the model FBEB system, Nfn from Pyrococus furiosus , under conditions at each step of the catalytic cycle. HDX-MS revealed evidence for allosteric coupling across protein subunits upon nucleotide and ferredoxin binding. SCA uncovered a network of co-evolving residues that can provide connectivity across the complex. Together, the HDX-MS and SCA data show that protein allostery occurs across the ensemble of iron-sulfur cofactors and ligand binding sites using specific pathways that connect domains allowing them to function as dynamically coordinated units.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2018

Statistical optimization of culture medium to produce recombinant viral protein by Escherichia coli host for diagnostic kit to detect human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection

The maximal production of recombinant HIV1 gp41 by E. coli was examined in optimal culture condition and medium compositions. The culture condition such as growth, initial medium pHs, IPTG concentrations, induction times, temperature (0.5 OD, 7.6, 0.75 mM, 4.6 h, 32 °C respectively), and yeast extract (7.51 g/l), tryptone (7.26 g/l), glucose (2.45 g/l), NaCl (20.40 g/l), betaine (10.41 mM) and ampicillin (71.23 μg/ml) was optimized using statistical experimental design and response surface method (RSM). One of the main popular methods to attain high cell density in fed-batch culture is by controlling the nutrient feeding, which is often necessary for high yield in protein (0.63–0.72 mg/l) and cell (1.7–2 g/l) of the desired product in four litter fermentations.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Statistical 3D morphology characterization of vaterite microspheres produced by engineered Escherichia coli

Hollow vaterite microspheres are important materials for biomedical applications such as drug delivery and regenerative medicine owing to their biocompatibility, high specific surface area, and ability to encapsulate a large number of bioactive molecules and compounds. We demonstrated that hollow vaterite microspheres are produced by an Escherichia coli strain engineered with a urease gene cluster from the ureolytic bacteria Sporosarcina pasteurii in the presence of bovine serum albumin. We characterized the 3D nanoscale morphology of five biogenic hollow vaterite microspheres using 3D high-angle annular dark field scanning transmission electron microscopy (HAADF-STEM) tomography. Using automated high-throughput HAADF-STEM imaging across several sample tilt orientations, we show that the microspheres evolved from a smaller more ellipsoidal shape to a larger more spherical shape while the internal hollow core increased in size and remained relatively spherical, indicating that the microspheres produced by this engineered strain likely do not contain the bacteria. The statistical 3D morphology information demonstrates the potential for using biogenic calcium carbonate mineralization to produce hollow vaterite microspheres with controlled morphologies.

3D morphology↗
DOE OSTI2014

Simultaneous assessment of phase chemistry, phase abundance and bulk chemistry with statistical electron probe micro-analyses: Application to cement clinkers

According to recent developments in cement clinker engineering, the optimization of chemical substitutions in the main clinker phases offers a promising approach to improve both reactivity and grindability of clinkers. Thus, monitoring the chemistry of the phases may become part of the quality control at the cement plants, along with the usual measurements of the abundance of the mineralogical phases (quantitative X-ray diffraction) and the bulk chemistry (X-ray fluorescence). This paper presents a new method to assess these three complementary quantities with a single experiment. The method is based on electron microprobe spot analyses, performed over a grid located on a representative surface of the sample and interpreted with advanced statistical tools. This paper describes the method and the experimental program performed on industrial clinkers to establish the accuracy in comparison to conventional methods. -- Highlights: •A new method of clinker characterization •Combination of electron probe technique with cluster analysis •Simultaneous assessment of phase abundance, composition and bulk chemistry •Experimental validation performed on industrial clinkers.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗