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NASA NTRS2022

Quantifying and Reducing Uncertainty in Microwave Vegetation Optical Depth and Soil Moisture Retrievals

Soil moisture and vegetation optical depth (VOD; related to vegetation water content) retrieved from SMAP and SMOS satellites are widely used for a range of hydrosphere and biosphere applications. However, while soil moisture has been globally well-validated, VOD validation has been sparse. Furthermore, simultaneously retrieval of these parameters results in uncertainties both individually in soil moisture and VOD retrievals as well as in compensation between the parameters. Here, we show global locations where soil moisture and VOD retrievals will have lower uncertainty, based on complementary brightness temperature information content and signal-to-noise ratio metrics. In these same locations, we show that error still propagates more into VOD. However, using VOD regularization algorithms, this error is greatly reduced, especially at sub-weekly timescales where algorithmic error can be most apparent. Despite these regularization approaches that reduce errors, there are yet vast differences in available global regularized retrievals originating from different algorithmic choices.

Passive microwave radiometry↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Effects of Dose Error and Sample Size on Sonic Boom Dose-Response Curves

NASA will soon be collecting noise-annoyance community survey data as the X-59 aircraft flies supersonically over several communities in the USA. Sparse measurements of the X-59 sonic thumps will be used together with physics-based simulations to estimate noise doses at survey participant locations. These dose estimates have associated error that affects the accuracy of modeled dose-response curves, which can result in misestimation of annoyance. The precision in dose-response curves is also a consideration in selecting the number of survey participants. To enable pretest studies of dose error and precision, simulated dose-response data were generated based on NASA’s Quiet Supersonic Flights 2018 test. The data included various degrees of dose error and sample size. Frequentist multilevel logistic regression models were fit to the true and perturbed dose-response data. Simple proportional relationships were identified between the model parameters and the perturbation standard deviation. The summary dose-response curves illustrate the impact on accuracy if dose error is not accounted for in the model. The precision in the dose-response curves is also shown as the number of participants and degree of participation is varied. Finally, sampling variability is illustrated by showing the dose-response curves for several replicates with random draws of participants and errors.

X-59↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Joint Retrieval of Surface BRDF from Geostationary and Polar-Orbiting Satellite Sensors

The latest geostationary sensors like GOES 16/17 ABI and Himawari 8/9 AHI provide high frequent observations of the Earth surface with continuously changing solar illumination geometries, which allow us to retrieve the surface Bidirectional Reflectance Distribution Function (BRDF) with dedicated atmospheric correction algorithms like MAIAC (Multi-Angle Implementation of Atmospheric Correction). However, because the viewing geometry of a specific location from the geostationary satellites are fixed, the angular sampling of surface BRDF by GEO (Geostationary Earth Orbit) sensors is far from comprehensive. This study tries to address this issue by exploring a GEO-LEO (Low-Earth-Orbit) synergy, in particular, jointly retrieving surface BRDF parameters with concurrent ABI/AHI and VIIRS top-of-atmosphere (TOA) reflectance for the near-infrared (NIR) band. The NIR band is chosen because the ABI, AHI, and VIIRS instruments have very similar spectral response functions in this band and therefore simplifies the requirements for cross-sensor radiometric calibration. We compile ABI/AHI and VIIRS TOA data with the best quality (cloud-free and low aerosol loading) at chosen AERONET sites. We then run the GeoNEX MAIAC algorithm to retrieve the Ross-Thick-Li-Sparse (RTLS) surface BRDF parameters with or without the AEORNET measured atmospheric aerosol optical depth (AOD) as inputs. The joint retrieval results are considered the best estimate of surface BRDF. We compare the joint BRDF retrievals with the corresponding MAIAC BRDF products, retrieved with ABI/AHI or VIIRS separately, to evaluate their differences. We expect that the jointly retrieved BRDF data are more robust than the standard products and may help us reduce uncertainties in higher-level earth observation satellite products.

Remote Sensing↗
NASA NTRS2023

Smc-Last Point Source Catalog Spitzer'S Last Survey of the Small Magellanic Cloud

We present a processing for the point source catalog derived from Spitzer's final two surveys of the Small Magellanic Cloud (SMC). These 2017-2018 maps duplicate the footprint from the SAGE-SMC program from 2008 and were obtained at 3.6 and 4.5 μm with the Infrared Array Camera (IRAC). They provide a nearly 10-year baseline of all observations of the SMC made by Spitzer. We extracted point sources from both the basic calibrated data (BCD) as well as the final processed mosaics. We did not use any prior catalogs as inputs in order to search for moving objects (e.g., foreground brown dwarfs) and other transient phenomena. The extractions from two test fields are shown here: a field sparsely populated with stars and a second containing more complicated structures. Comparing our extractions between both of our epochs and with the SAGE epochs shows the completeness and range of our survey. The mosaics are currently available on the Infrared Science Archive (IRSA) and the Harvard Dataverse. The final point source catalog will be available at both archives, as well. This work is supported by NASA Award 80NSSC19K0585.

Thomas Kuchar↗
NASA NTRS2022

MLtool Python Code

Machine Learning (ML) is a subfield of Artificial Intelligence that gives computers the ability to learn from past data without being explicitly programmed. The predictive capabilities of ML models have already been used to facilitate several scientific breakthroughs. However, the practical application of ML is often limited due to the gaps in technical knowledge of its users. The common issue faced by many scientific researchers is the inability to choose the appropriate ML pipelines that are needed to treat real-world data, which is often sparse and noisy. To solve this problem, we have developed an automated Machine Learning tool (MLtool) that includes a set of ML algorithms and approaches to aid scientific researchers. The current version of MLtool is implemented as an object-oriented Python code that is easily extensible. It includes 44 different regression algorithms used to model data. MLtool helps users select the best model for their data, based on the scoring metrics used. Besides regression algorithms, MLtool also includes a suite of pre- and post-processing techniques such as missing value imputation, categorical variable encoding, input feature normalization, uncertainty quantification, exploratory data analysis (EDA), etc. MLtool was tested on several publicly available multi-dimensional data sets and was found capable of making accurate predictions.

Machine Learning↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

The Essence of Reactivity

Reactive programming, functional reactive programming, event-based programming, stream programming, and temporal logic all share an underlying commonality: values can vary over time. These languages differ in multiple ways, including the nature of time itself (e.g., continuous or discrete, dense or sparse, implicit or explicit), on how much of the past and future can be referenced, on the kinds of values that can be represented, as well as the mechanisms used to evaluate expressions or formulas. This paper presents a series of abstractions that capture the essence of different forms of time variance. By separating the aspects that differentiate each family of formalisms, we can better express the commonalities and differences between them. We demonstrate our work with a prototype in Haskell that allows us to write programs in terms of a generic interface that can be later instantiated to different abstractions depending on the desired target.

reactive programming↗
NASA NTRS2022

Gaussian Process Regression Method for Costing SmallSat Bus Capabilities

NASA is responding to the growing interest in, andcapabilities of, small satellites for science applications with an increasingnumber and frequency of Announcements of Opportunityfor small satellite space missions. Estimating the probabilitythat these mission concepts will fit within the small cost capsof these opportunities is largely driven by the probability thatone of the burgeoning number of small satellite providers will beable to meet the payload’s accommodation requirements withinthe budget for the spacecraft. JPL has collected a databasecontaining technical specifications and cost of commerciallyavailable Smallsat buses across various vendors. The primarypurpose of the database is for use in JPL’s Team X architecturestudies to inform cost estimates of a spacecraft bus which fitsthe customer’s technical requirements for their payload andmission. Customer needs are often unique and don’t alignperfectly with an off-the-shelf commercial spacecraft bus, whichmotivates the need to develop a cost model across the continuoustechnical parameter space.Al’s Bus Cost Distribution Estimator (ABCDE) uses Gaussianprocess regression (GPR) to predict commercial Smallsat spacecraftbus cost based on a subset of a customer’s technicalrequirements (payload mass, payload power, delta V, pointingcontrol, and downlink rate). GPR is implemented in ABCDE asa Bayesian method which fits an implied multivariate regressionon the technical parameters and uses kriging to intentionally“overfit” the residuals. Overfitting the residuals allows costestimates to collapse in uncertainty closer to the data pointswhile maintaining larger uncertainty intervals in regions of parameterspace with fewer data records. The data used to fit thismodel is sensitive and represents cost estimates for off-the-shelfcommercial buses. GPR simultaneously protects the sensitivityof the database and uses the sparse nature of the database toaccount for uncertainty in cost in a useful way. For a givenset of customer technical requirements, the tool provides a costestimate distribution, the percentiles of which can be interpretedas a confidence level of finding a commercial bus under a specifiedcost cap. ABCDE dramatically pushes the boundaries ofspacecraft cost estimation models due to its Bayesian methodology(accounting for the maximum uncertainty in the underlyingregression), the mathematically advanced kriging methodology,and the novelty of its application in Team X architecture tradestudies.

Austin, Alex↗
NASA NTRS2023

Assessment of the Impact of Discontinuity in Satellite Instruments and Retrievals on Global PM2.5

Exposure to fine particulate matter (PM2.5) is the leading environmental risk factor for mortality globally. Satellite-derived estimates of surface PM2.5 developed from a combination of satellites, simulations, and ground monitor data are relied upon for health impact studies. The ability to develop satellite-derived PM2.5 estimates requires the continued availability of aerosol optical depth (AOD) sources. This work examines the impact of the addition or loss of satellite AOD data sources on global PM2.5 estimation and the impact of continuing the longterm record with AOD from the Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) on the Suomi-National Polar orbiting Partnership (S-NPP) satellite after the loss of the MODIS (MODerate resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) and MISR (Multi-angle Imaging Spectroradiometer) instruments on board the Terra and Aqua satellites. We find that the addition of VIIRS S-NPP AOD products to geophysical PM2.5 estimates from satellites and simulations causes regional differences that correspond to differences in the VIIRS and MODIS Deep Blue AOD algorithms and sampling. Changes in long-term trends and timeseries due to the addition or loss of AOD data sources are generally within their uncertainties. Statistical fusion with ground monitor data partially corrects for changes due to sampling differences when introducing the VIIRS AOD products, but uncertainty remains over desert regions where ground monitor coverage is sparse. This work provides promise for the sustained development of global satellite-derived PM2.5 estimates, despite discontinuities in instruments and retrieval methods.

Remote sensing↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Detecting Hail from Space: Algorithms, Climatologies, and Challenges Going Forward

In addition to the myriad threats that severe hailstorms pose to society, infrastructure and agriculture, severe hail is difficult to measure in situ, and surface-based hail reporting and detection methods are inconsistent and subject to geographical or societal biases. This motivates the use of spaceborne remote-sensing platforms to retrieve hail and construct climatologies in a globally uniform way. We have developed a hail detection algorithm that leverages the sensitivity of spaceborne passive-microwave radiometers to scattering by hail, particularly in the channels from 10 to 89 GHz. We use this retrieval to construct global climatologies of severe hail using several different spaceborne sensors: the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Microwave Imager (TMI), Global Precipitation Measurement Mission (GPM) Microwave Imager, Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer for EOS (AMSR-E), and Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer 2 (AMSR2) sensors and are working to extend into the late 1980’s using the Special Sensor Microwave Imager/Sounder (SSMI/(S)) data. Using coincident Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) Ku-band precipitation radar, we assessed this retrieval and several others in the literature for their effectiveness and regional variability. We developed a passive-microwave algorithm that corresponds tightly to radar reflectivity and gives the least appearance of regional biases compared to other passive-microwave approaches in the literature. Satellite platforms offer consistent observations, even in remote, data-sparse, and oceanic regions that ground-based networks exclude. There are, however, potential disconnects between the processes identified aloft by the satellite and the resultant weather at the ground, leading to uncertainties in the retrievals that may propagate into satellite-based climatologies, particularly in the Tropics, where there are abundant strong - but not necessarily hailing - storms that are strongly represented in the current satellite climatologies. We will discuss ongoing efforts to assess and mitigate the contributing factors to these uncertainties, chiefly among them the effects of non-uniform beam filling in the passive-microwave footprint, and the relationships between the size distributions of hailstones aloft and the dynamic processes and environments with which they interact throughout their trajectories.

Sarah D Bang↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Status of the Microwave Barometric Radar and Sounder (MBARS)

Atmospheric surface pressure and pressure profiles are essential variables in weather modeling and forecasting. Pressure gradients generate atmospheric motion and are essential to the air-sea heat exchange feedbacks within the planetary boundary layer (PBL) that lead to convective storms and heavy precipitation. Despite the importance of pressure and pressure gradients on meso-, synoptic-, and global-scale weather patterns, current technology relies almost entirely on buoy measurements over the majority of the ocean. These measurements are too sparse to capture pressure gradients of even many synoptic scale events, and leave models starved of information. NASA/Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC), NASA/Langley Research Center (LaRC), and Tomorrow.io have begun development of the Microwave Barometric Radar and Sounder (MBARS), an airborne sensor to retrieve surface air pressure and vertical pressure profiles, especially over oceans. MBARS is a new combined active/passive microwave instrument in the O2 absorption V-band (64-70 GHz) funded by the NASA Earth Science Technology Office (ESTO) Instrument Incubator Program (IIP). This instrument consists of an innovative scanning multi-channel differential absorption radar (DAR) to provide an estimation of total atmospheric column oxygen content and thus the surface dry air pressure. MBARS also will provide hyperspectral radiometric temperature profiling to enables vertical pressure profiles using the hypsometric relationship between pressure and temperature. A co-located microwave radiometer will provide the integrated water vapor mass contribution to atmospheric pressure. This presentation will summarize the project, retrieval concept, and engineering status of the MBARS project.

Radar, Radiometer↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Open Science for Plants in Space: Improvements in NASA's Open Science Data Repository

Upcoming deep space missions will rely on plants for crew and ecosystem health. Open access space biology data enables scientists to examine the biological responses of plants to ionizing radiation, altered gravity, elevated CO2, and many other abiotic stressors. NASA has declared 2023 as the ‘Year of Open Science’ and created a 5-year Transform to Open Science (TOPS) initiative designed to rapidly transform the agency toward an inclusive culture of open science. NASA’s Open Science Data Repository (OSDR) combines two databases, GeneLab and Ames Life Sciences Data Archive (ALSDA) to maximize access to standardized ‘omics (e.g., transcriptomics, proteomics) and phenotypic data (e.g., microscopy, biomass), respectively. Current OSDR standards include the ISA (Investigation-Study-Assay) experiment model, assay metadata configurations, and standardized terminology and ontologies. In 2024 OSDR will include a new suite of features for improved FAIR compliance including downloadable plant metadata templates, data submission tools and overall improved AI-readiness of plant datasets. AI/ML methods can be helpful tools to overcome the inherent challenges of space biology research (small sample size, sparse and heterogeneous data etc.). However these methods are built on an assumption of normalized and well-curated data. OSDR’s new curation tools will improve users ability to leverage ML and AI methods to model space biology data and better understand the complex effects of spaceflight on living systems across hierarchical biological levels. We look forward to sharing our advances with the spaceflight community.

FAIR↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Biological Research and Space Health Enabled by Machine Learning to Support Deep Space Missions

A key science goal of the NASA “Moon to Mars” campaign is to understand how biology responds to the Lunar, Martian, and deep space environments in order to advance fundamental knowledge, reduce risk, and support safe, productive human space missions. Through the powerful emerging computer science approaches of artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning (ML), a paradigm shift has begun in biomedical science and engineered astronaut health systems, to enable Earth-independence and autonomy of mission operations. We present a decadal view of AI/ML architecture to support deep space mission goals, developed in concert with leaders in the field. We describe current AI/ML methods to support 1) fundamental biology, 2) in situ analytics, 3) high performance computing hardware, 4) automated science, 5) self-driving labs, 6) remote data management, 7) integrated real-time mission biomonitoring, and 8) a Precision Space Health system. Cutting-edge AI/ML approaches that can be integrated to support these domains include active learning, explainable AI, adaptive learning, causal inference, knowledge graphs, federated learning, transfer learning, and large language models. Finally, we present results from several current ML projects that are underway in the field to address key challenges of small sample n, high feature count, heterogeneity, and sparse data. These include 1) connecting omics data to phenotypic data using an ensemble model to infer causality of spaceflight rodent liver health disruption, 2) usage of explainable ML to interrogate the muscular underpinnings of spaceflight muscle atrophy, 3) ML models analyzing and determining directed acyclic graphs of human space health risk leveraging rodent bone datasets, 4) usage of large pre-trained models connecting biomedical knowledgebases with small spaceflight datasets to understand gene-to-gene interaction networks, and 5) a suite of benchmarked open science datasets (spaceflight mouse liver; radiation DNA damage) enabling programmers to identify the best ML algorithms to answer space biological science questions.

space biology↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Biological Research and Space Health Enabled by Machine Learning to Support Deep Space Missions

A key science goal of the NASA “Moon to Mars” campaign is to understand how biology responds to the Lunar, Martian, and deep space environments in order to advance fundamental knowledge and support human space missions. Through artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning (ML), a paradigm shift has begun in space biosciences and engineered astronaut health systems, to enable Earth-independence and mission operations autonomy. We describe current AI/ML methods to support 1) fundamental biology, 2) in situ analytics, 3) high performance computing, 4) automated science, 5) self-driving labs, 6) remote data management, 7) integrated mission biomonitoring, and 8) a Precision Space Health system. AI/ML approaches that can be integrated to support these domains include active learning, explainable AI, adaptive learning, causal inference, knowledge graphs, federated learning, transfer learning, and large language models. Finally, we present results from several current ML projects that are underway in the space biology field to address key challenges of small sample n, high feature count, heterogeneity, and sparse data. These include 1) connecting omics to phenotypic data using an ensemble model to infer causality of rodent liver health disruption, 2) usage of explainable ML to interrogate muscular underpinnings of muscle atrophy, 3) ML models analyzing and determining directed acyclic graphs of human health risk leveraging rodent bone datasets, 4) usage of large pre-trained models connecting biomedical knowledgebases with small spaceflight datasets to understand gene-to-gene interactions, and 5) a suite of benchmarked open science datasets enabling programmers to identify best algorithms to answer space biology questions.

space biology↗
NASA NTRS2025

Tutorial: MATLAB Implementation of a Successive Convexification Algorithm for 3 DoF Rocket Landings

The primary objective of this work is to fill in gaps and explore an alternate way of solving the 3 DoF rocket-powered landing problem presented in the 2016 AIAA paper by Szmuk, Ackimese, and Berning using successive convexification (SCvx). In the original paper, CVX, an automatic parsing package, was used to transcribe the high-level trajectory optimization problem into a format that could be read by a conic solver. The parsing step, generally computationally intensive, is hidden from the user. The use of CVX is sufficient for the generation of trajectories off-line due to the lack of runtime and flight software implementation constraints. For on-line applications, it is necessary to parse the problem for flight software implementation. References on hand-parsing powered descent guidance (PDG) problems are sparse. In this Tech Memo, the process of transcribing the 3 DoF PDG problem into the format required by MATLAB’s built-in second-order cone solver, coneprog.m, is presented in detail. Due to the abridged 3 DoF dynamics and the relatively simple nonlinearities, this reference is the natural starting point for anyone interested in grasping the concepts behind SCvx pertaining to PDG and the parsing step. Simulation results shown in this report were independently created by solving the problem using coneprog.m. The intent of this memo is to serve as a supplemental material to the original paper by breaking down the concept behind successive convexification and shed light into the parsing process. Readers are encouraged to first familiarize themselves with the material laid out in the original reference.

Alex Hayes↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Mitigating the Impacts of Measurement Error in the Quesst Mission Community Noise Study

Beginning in 2025, the NASA Quesst mission will conduct a series of community response tests involving flyovers of the X-59 aircraft at select localities across the United States. Several waves of a longitudinal survey will be administered over approximately one month of testing in order to capture perceptual responses to low-amplitude sonic booms, or “sonic thumps”. Simultaneously, noise exposure levels will be estimated by fusing model-based predictions with measurements taken from a sparse network of monitors in the region. As one of the aims of the study is to produce a dose-response curve, a regression model relating perceptual response to noise exposure levels, it is important to acknowledge the potential attenuation bias that results from measurement error in the estimated noise exposure levels. In this presentation we review and compare several methods for dealing with measurement error in generalized linear mixed models. The methods are demonstrated on simulated data and real data collected during past NASA risk reduction studies.

measurement error↗
NASA NTRS2023

Efficient Two-Way Coupled Analysis of Steady-State Particle-Laden Hypersonic Flows

A direct solution approach for surface erosion in particle-laden hypersonic flows is extended for use in low-cost two-way coupled solutions of dilute gas-particle flows. The Trajectory Control Volume method, which uses a sparse set of probe particles to predict surface erosion distributions on general vehicles, is reformulated for the solution of source terms by mean trajectory subdivision and computing a flux differencing. The approach is verified successfully against a boundary layer solution and shown to agree well with experimental measurements. A representative Mars entry case, with conditions and geometry based on the ExoMars Schiaparelli capsule, is solved with the approach to study the impact of two-way coupling on surface heating and erosion. Results indicate that for realistic loading conditions, heating is largely unmodified compared to one-way coupled results at peak heating trajectory conditions, and no measureable difference is observed in the surface erosion rate. At exaggerated loading conditions high enough to observe coupling effects, the worst case collisional heating can increase heating by up to 60%.

Particle Laden Flow↗
NASA NTRS2023

Auroral, Ionospheric and Ground Magnetic Signatures of Magnetopause Surface Modes

Surface waves on Earth's magnetopause have a controlling effect upon global magnetospheric dynamics. Since spacecraft provide sparse in situ observation points, remote sensing these modes using ground-based instruments in the polar regions is desirable. However, many open conceptual questions on the expected signatures remain. Therefore, we provide predictions of key qualitative features expected in auroral, ionospheric, and ground magnetic observations through both magnetohydrodynamic theory and a global coupled magnetosphere-ionosphere simulation of a magnetopause surface eigenmode. These show monochromatic oscillatory field-aligned currents (FACs), due to both the surface mode and its non-resonant Alfvén coupling, are present throughout the magnetosphere. The currents peak in amplitude at the equatorward edge of the magnetopause boundary layer, not the open-closed boundary as previously thought. They also exhibit slow poleward phase motion rather than being purely evanescent. We suggest the upward FAC perturbations may result in periodic auroral brightenings. In the ionosphere, convection vortices circulate the poleward moving FAC structures. Finally, surface mode signals are predicted in the ground magnetic field, with ionospheric Hall currents rotating perturbations by approximately (but not exactly) 90° compared to the magnetosphere. Thus typical dayside magnetopause surface modes should be strongest in the East-West ground magnetic field component. Overall, all ground-based signatures of the magnetopause surface mode are predicted to have the same frequency across L-shells, amplitudes that maximize near the magnetopause's equatorward edge, and larger latitudinal scales than for field line resonance. Implications in terms of ionospheric Joule heating and geomagnetically induced currents are discussed.

M. O. Archer↗