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At least 1,387 records · Page 77
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2020

Management opportunities for soil carbon sequestration following agricultural land abandonment

The widespread historical and ongoing abandonment of agricultural lands worldwide presents important opportunities for promoting climate change mitigation through carbon sequestration. The default management outcome of abandonment is natural regeneration through ecological succession. However, several different management strategies and new land uses for abandoned agricultural lands have been recommended by the scientific community in recent years. This paper reviews the foremost proposed strategies and compares their soil carbon sequestration potentials. Six major categories have been proposed globally. Each proposal has positive and negative outcomes depending on site-specific factors and management objectives. Accordingly, no single strategy is ideal in all scenarios and a combination of strategies addresses multiple rural development goals concurrently. A combination of passive and active management techniques is the most effective approach for maximizing soil carbon sequestration over large geographic scales, while other strategies can be designed to also promote low-carbon land use practices and fossil fuel substitution. The implications of each proposal highlighted here demonstrates the positive role that abandoned agricultural lands can serve in climate change mitigation efforts, supporting policymakers tasked with planning the future of regions undergoing abandonment.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

A note on the instability and pattern formation of shrinkage cracks in viscoplastic soils

In this work we present a theoretical study on the conditions for the onset of cracks, as well as the corresponding pattern formation, in saturated viscoplastic soils under isotropic loading (extension). The type of stress applied is left unspecified, to cover a variety of loadings including shrinkage due to desiccation, isotropic thermal expansion, mechanical loading and so forth. By treating the saturated soil as rigid viscoplastic, we obtain a 2D extension of the Cnoidal Waves equations (Veveakis and Regenauer-Lieb, 2015). By numerically solving the corresponding boundary value problem, we retrieve conditions for the onset of cracking instability in 2D loading, and identify the characteristic spacing between cracks to be a length scale combining all the hydro-mechanical parameters of the problem. Finally, we show that in a rectangular slab of clay under isotropic extension, patterns of triangular, rectangular and hexagonal cracks can tessellate the domain, with the hexagonal pattern being the energetically favored, as it minimizes the free energy of the system.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

A combined management scheme to simultaneously mitigate As and Cd concentrations in rice cultivated in contaminated paddy soil

Paddy soils in southern China are heavily co-polluted by arsenic (As) and cadmium (Cd). The accumulation of these contaminants in rice grains may pose a high health risk. We evaluated the impact of adjusted water management practice (i.e., conventional irrigation and aerobic treatment after heading stage) and the application of two immobilization agents (i.e., CaO and Fe2O3) on the accumulation of As and Cd in rice grains of three rice varieties (i.e., Jinyou-463, Jinyou-268, and Mabayouzhan). The different schemes were tested via conducting a field experiment in paddy soil in Shaoguan, Guangdong Province, China. The results showed that the combined scheme (selecting Jinyou-268, aerobic water management after the heading stage, and 0.09% CaO and 0.5% Fe2O3 amendments) exhibited the best performance in the reduction of As and Cd accumulation in rice grains. This combined scheme decreased the grain As concentration by 26.19% and maintained the Cd at a low level (0.056 mg/kg) as compared to the use of local conventional irrigation patterns. Moreover, health risk assessment demonstrated that by applying the optimal scheme, neither As nor Cd content in rice had carcinogenic risk. However, the grain As remains at a high non-carcinogenic risk. We suggest that future field study design should fully incorporate the uncertainty of the natural environment to make the research conclusions more feasible for popularization and utilization. This study demonstrated an approach of utilizing the synergy effects of various measures for safe rice production in fields subjected to As and Cd contaminations.

Yang, Xiao↗
DOE OSTI2022

Sonochemical oxidation and stabilization of liquid elemental mercury in water and soil

Over 3000 mercury (Hg)-contaminated sites worldwide contain liquid metallic Hg [Hg(0) 1 ] representing a continuous source of elemental Hg(0) in the environment through volatilization and solubilization in water. Currently, there are few effective treatment technologies available to remove or sequester Hg(0) 1 in situ. We investigated sonochemical treatments coupled with complexing agents, polysulfide and sulfide, in oxidizing Hg(0) 1 and stabilizing Hg in water, soil and quartz sand. Results indicate that sonication is highly effective in breaking up and oxidizing liquid Hg(0) 1 beads via acoustic cavitation, particularly in the presence of polysulfide. Without complexing agents, sonication caused only minor oxidation of Hg(0) 1 but increased headspace gaseous Hg(0) g and dissolved Hg(0) aq in water. However, the presence of polysulfide essentially stopped Hg(0) volatilization and solubilization. As a charged polymer, polysulfide was more effective than sulfide in oxidizing Hg(0) 1 and subsequently stabilizing the precipitated metacinnabar (β-HgS) nanocrystals. Sonochemical treatments with sulfide yielded incomplete oxidation of Hg(0) 1 , likely resulting from the formation of HgS coatings on the dispersed µm-size Hg(0) 1 bead surfaces. Sonication with polysulfide also resulted in rapid oxidation of Hg(0) 1 and precipitation of HgS in quartz sand and in the Hg(0) 1 -contaminated soil. This research indicates that sonochemical treatment with polysulfide could be an effective means in rapidly converting Hg(0) 1 to insoluble HgS precipitates in water and sediments, thereby preventing its further emission and release to the environment. We suggest that future studies are performed to confirm its technical feasibility and treatment efficacy for remediation applications.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2022

Enhanced Transport of TiO 2 in Unsaturated Sand and Soil after Release from Biodegradable Plastic during Composting

Biodegradable plastics can reach full degradation when disposed of appropriately and thus alleviate plastic pollution caused by conventional plastics. But additives can be released into the environment during degradation, and the fate of these additives can be affected by the degradation process. In this study, we characterized TiO 2 particles released from a biodegradable plastic mulch during composting and studied the transport of the released TiO 2 particles in inert sand and agricultural soil columns under unsaturated flow conditions. TiO 2 microparticles were released from the biodegradable plastic mulch in both single particle and cluster forms. The released TiO 2 microparticles were fully retained in unsaturated soil columns due to its ne texture, slow flow rate, and favorable attachment conditions. But in unsaturated sand columns, the released TiO 2 microparticles were highly mobile. Additionally, comparison with the pristine TiO 2 microparticles revealed that the enhanced mobility of the released TiO 2 microparticles was caused by the presence of compost residues which blocked attachment sites on the sand surface. This study demonstrates that TiO 2 microparticles can be released during composting of biodegradable plastics, and the transport potential of the released TiO 2 microparticles in the terrestrial environment can be enhanced by the presence of compost material.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

(Fe, Cr)(OH) 3 Coprecipitation in Solution and on Soil: Roles of Surface Functional Groups and Solution pH

The simultaneous precipitation of (Fe, Cr)(OH) 3 nanoparticles in solution (homogeneous) and on soil surfaces (heterogeneous), which controls Cr transport in soil and aquatic systems, was quantified for the first time in the presence of model surfaces, i.e., bare and natural organic matter (NOM)-coated SiO 2 and Al 2 O 3 . Various characterization techniques were combined to explore the surface-ion-precipitate interactions and the controlling mechanisms. (Fe, Cr)(OH) 3 accumulation on negatively charged SiO 2 was mainly governed by electrostatic interactions between hydrolyzed ion species or homogeneous (Fe, Cr)(OH) 3 and surfaces. The elevated pH through protonation of Al 2 O 3 surface hydroxyls resulted in higher Cr/Fe ratios in both homogeneous and heterogeneous coprecipitates. Here, due to ignorable NOM adsorption onto SiO 2 , the amounts of (Fe, Cr)(OH) 3 precipitates on bare/NOM-SiO 2 were similar; contrarily, attributed to favored NOM adsorption onto Al 2 O 3 and consequently carboxyl association with metal ions or (Fe, Cr)(OH) 3 nanoparticles, remarkably more heterogeneous precipitates harvested on NOM-Al 2 O 3 than bare-Al 2 O 3 . With the same solution supersaturation, the total amounts of homogeneous and heterogeneous precipitates were similar irrespective of the substrate type. With lower pH, decreased electrostatic forces between substrates and precipitates shifted (Fe, Cr)(OH) 3 distribution from heterogeneous to homogeneous phases. The quantitative knowledge of (Fe, Cr)(OH) 3 distribution and the controlling mechanisms can assist in better Cr sequestration in natural and engineered settings.

(Fe, Cr)(OH)3 distribution↗
DOE OSTI2026

Desorption of Phosphate from Iron-Bearing Soil Minerals by a Plant Secondary Metabolite

In soils, phosphorus readily adsorbs to the surfaces of ubiquitous iron (oxyhydr)oxide minerals, rendering it less accessible to plants and microorganisms. Plants have a number of strategies to access iron, among them the secretion of redox-active metabolites from their roots. Although these strategies likely increase the bioavailability of surface-adsorbed phosphorus through reductive dissolution, their effect on phosphorus cycling has not yet been investigated. We tested the ability of fraxetin, a coumarin-type redox-active metabolite produced by the model plant Arabidopsis thaliana and other dicotyledon plant species, to reductively solubilize phosphate from the surface of ferrihydrite. Our findings show that, at low and neutral pH, fraxetin increased aqueous phosphate concentrations under both oxic and anoxic conditions; at high pH, it was only effective in anoxic experiments. Additionally, a combination of liquid chromatography–mass spectrometry and spectroscopic methods demonstrated substantial fraxetin adsorption to the mineral surface but showed that iron reduction did not alter the mineral structure or change the nature of the chemical environment of the phosphorus atom over short time scales. These results provide evidence that the secretion of redox-active metabolites from roots is likely to be an effective phosphorus acquisition tactic in iron-rich soils.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2023

Synthetic Biology Toolbox for Nitrogen-Fixing Soil Microbes

The soil environment adjacent to plant roots, termed the rhizosphere, is home to a wide variety of microorganisms that can significantly affect the physiology of nearby plants. Microbes in the rhizosphere can provide nutrients, secrete signaling compounds, and inhibit pathogens. These processes could be manipulated with synthetic biology to enhance the agricultural performance of crops grown for food, energy, or environmental remediation, if methods can be implemented in these nonmodel microbes. A common first step for domesticating nonmodel organisms is the development of a set of genetic engineering tools, termed a synthetic biology toolbox. A toolbox comprises transformation protocols, replicating vectors, genome engineering (e.g., CRISPR/Cas9), constitutive and inducible promoter systems, and other gene expression control elements. Furthermore, this work validated synthetic biology toolboxes in three nitrogen-fixing soil bacteria: Azotobacter vinelandii, Stutzerimonas stutzeri (Pseudomonas stutzeri), and a new isolate of Klebsiella variicola. All three organisms were amenable to transformation and reporter protein expression, with several functional inducible systems available for each organism. S. stutzeri and K. variicola showed more reliable plasmid-based expression, resulting in successful Cas9 recombineering to create scarless deletions and insertions. Using these tools, we generated mutants with inducible nitrogenase activity and introduced heterologous genes to produce resorcinol products with relevant biological activity in the rhizosphere.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

An Integrative Model for Soil Biogeochemistry and Methane Processes: I. Model Structure and Sensitivity Analysis

Abstract Environmental changes are anticipated to generate substantial impacts on carbon cycling in peatlands, affecting terrestrial‐climate feedbacks. Understanding how peatland methane (CH 4 ) fluxes respond to these changing environments is critical for predicting the magnitude of feedbacks from peatlands to global climate change. To improve predictions of CH 4 fluxes in response to changes such as elevated atmospheric CO 2 concentrations and warming, it is essential for Earth system models to include increased realism to simulate CH 4 processes in a more mechanistic way. To address this need, we incorporated a new microbial‐functional group‐based CH 4 module into the Energy Exascale Earth System land model (ELM) and tested it with multiple observational data sets at an ombrotrophic peatland bog in northern Minnesota. The model is able to simulate observed land surface CH 4 fluxes and fundamental mechanisms contributing to these throughout the soil profile. The model reproduced the observed vertical distributions of dissolved organic carbon and acetate concentrations. The seasonality of acetoclastic and hydrogenotrophic methanogenesis—two key processes for CH 4 production—and CH 4 concentration along the soil profile were accurately simulated. Meanwhile, the model estimated that plant‐mediated transport, diffusion, and ebullition contributed to ∼23.5%, 15.0%, and 61.5% of CH 4 transport, respectively. A parameter sensitivity analysis showed that CH 4 substrate and CH 4 production were the most critical mechanisms regulating temporal patterns of surface CH 4 fluxes both under ambient conditions and warming treatments. This knowledge will be used to improve Earth system model predictions of these high‐carbon ecosystems from plot to regional scales.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Changes in Physical Properties of Everglades Peat Soils Induced by Increased Salinity at the Laboratory Scale: Implications for Changes in Biogenic Gas Dynamics

Abstract Saltwater intrusion due to sea level rise is a major concern for the Florida Everglades because it may induce shifts in ecosystem productivity and physical soil properties. However, the effects of saline water intrusion into the current carbon gas dynamics of the Everglades (particularly in terms of biogenic gas production and emissions, i.e., CH 4 and CO 2 ) are still uncertain. In this work, we present a laboratory‐based study to simulate how sea level rise may alter the physical properties (i.e., hydraulic conductivity) of peat soils from the Everglades and consequently affect the accumulation and release of biogenic gases within the peat matrix. Peat monoliths collected from the Everglades were subjected to progressive increases in salinity from a NaCl solution, and changes to the biogenic gas dynamics regime were simultaneously monitored using a combination of time‐lapse ground‐penetrating radar measurements, manometers, time‐lapse photography, and gas traps. Physical changes to the peat matrix at each salinity interval were assessed using constant head permeameter tests. Consistent with previous research, results show that a progressive increase in salinity (from fresh to saltwater) results in (1) a progressive increase in hydraulic conductivity and (2) a progressive decrease in gas content within the peat matrix (i.e., production) and gas releases. This work has implications for better understanding the potential effects of saltwater intrusion into freshwater peatland systems in the Everglades, particularly in terms of carbon gas dynamics.

Sirianni, Matthew J.↗
DOE OSTI2021

An Integrative Model for Soil Biogeochemistry and Methane Processes. II: Warming and Elevated CO 2 Effects on Peatland CH 4 Emissions

Peatlands are one of the largest natural sources for atmospheric methane (CH 4 ), a potent greenhouse gas. Climate warming and elevated atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) are two important environmental factors that have been confirmed to stimulate peatland CH 4 emissions; however, the mechanisms underlying enhanced emissions remain elusive. A data-model integration approach was applied to understand the CH 4 processes in a northern temperate peatland under a gradient of warming and doubled atmospheric CO 2 concentration. We found that warming and elevated CO 2 stimulated CH 4 emissions through different mechanisms. Warming initially stimulated but then suppressed vegetative productivity while stimulating soil organic matter (SOM) mineralization and dissolved organic carbon (DOC) fermentation, which led to higher acetate production and enhanced acetoclastic and hydrogenotrophic methanogenesis. Warming also enhanced surface CH 4 emissions, which combined with warming-caused decreases in CH 4 solubility led to slightly lower dissolved CH 4 concentrations through the soil profiles. Elevated CO 2 enhanced ecosystem productivity and SOM mineralization, resulting in higher DOC and acetate concentrations. Higher DOC and acetate concentrations increased acetoclastic and hydrogenotrophic methanogenesis and led to higher dissolved CH 4 concentrations and CH 4 emissions. Both warming and elevated CO 2 had minor impacts on CH 4 oxidation. A meta-analysis of warming and elevated CO 2 impacts on carbon cycling in wetlands agreed well with a majority of the modeled mechanisms. Finally, this mechanistic understanding of the stimulating impacts of warming and elevated CO 2 on peatland CH 4 emissions enhances our predictability on the climate-ecosystem feedback.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Electrical Conductivity of Clayey Rocks and Soils: A Non-Linear Model

It is well-accepted that Archie's law is only applicable to “clean” rocks and soils but fails in “dirty” ones where clay minerals possess an additional component of surface conductivity. Although several models, for example, Waxman-Smits model, were presented to account for this phenomenon, surface conductivity is always inappropriately treated as constant, which actually only holds at high salinities. The essential non-linear characteristic differing over fluid salinities has not been physically or mathematically explained well in those models. Here, we scrutinize the conduction mechanism of clayey rocks and soils and ascribe this non-linear feature to (a) variation of the electrical double layer and (b) the intrinsic clay-and-water conduction pattern. With effective medium theory, we develop an easy-to-use non-linear model that both reflects electrochemical theories and explains the measurement data well. Our model can be used to produce more accurate results for laboratory- and field-scale petrophysical parameter evaluations than the previous models.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

The Realistic Potential of Soil Carbon Sequestration in U.S. Croplands for Climate Mitigation

Existing estimates of the climate mitigation potential from cropland carbon sequestration (C-sequestration) are limited because they tend to assume constant rates of soil organic carbon change over all available cropland area, use relatively coarse land delineations, and often fail to adequately consider the agronomic and socioeconomic dimensions of agricultural land use. This results in an inflated estimate of the C-sequestration potential. We address this gap by defining a more appropriate land base for cover cropping in the United States for C-sequestration purposes: stable croplands in annual production systems that can integrate cover cropping without irrigation. Our baseline estimate of this suitable stable cropland area is 32% of current U.S. cropland extent. Even an alternative, less restrictive definition of stability results in a large reduction in area (44% of current U.S. croplands). Focusing cover crop implementation to this constrained land base would increase durability of associated C-sequestration and limit soil carbon loss from land conversion to qualify for carbon-specific incentives. Applying spatially-variable C-sequestration rates from the literature to our baseline area yields a technical potential of 19.4 Tg CO 2 e yr –1 annually, about one-fifth of previous estimates. We also find the cost of realizing about half (10 Tg CO 2 e yr –1 ) of this potential could exceed 100 USD Mg CO 2 e –1 , an order of magnitude higher than previously thought. While our economic analyses suggest that financial incentives are necessary for large-scale adoption of cover cropping in the U.S., they also imply any C-sequestration realized under such incentives is likely to be additional.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Twenty Years of Progress, Challenges, and Opportunities in Measuring and Understanding Soil Respiration

Abstract Soil respiration (Rs), the soil‐to‐atmosphere flux of CO 2 , is a dominant but uncertain part of the carbon cycle, even after decades of study. This review focuses on progress in understanding Rs from laboratory incubations to global estimates. We survey key developments of in situ ecosystem‐scale Rs observations and manipulations, synthesize Rs meta‐analyses and global flux estimates, and discuss the most compelling challenges and opportunities for the future. Increasingly sophisticated lab experiments have yielded insights into the interaction among heterotrophic respiration, substrate supply, and enzymatic kinetics, and extended incubation‐based analyses across space and time. Observational and manipulative field‐based experiments have used improved measurement approaches to deepen our understanding of the integrated effects of environmental change and disturbance on Rs. Freely‐available observational databases have enabled meta‐analyses and studies probing the magnitude of, and constraints on, the global Rs flux. Key challenges for the field include expanding Rs measurements, experiments, and opportunities to under‐represented communities and ecosystems; reconciling independent estimates of global respiration fluxes and trends; testing and leveraging the power of machine learning and process‐based models, both independently and in conjunction with each other; and continuing the field's tradition of using novel experiments to explore diverse mechanisms and ecosystems.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Representing Soil Microbial Dynamics and Organo‐Mineral Interactions in the E3SM Land Model (ELM‐ReSOM)

Explicit representation of soil microbial processes and interactions with biotic and abiotic processes in Earth System Models (ESMs) remains limited, despite their importance in biogeochemical cycles. To address this gap, which hinders prediction of global biogeochemial cycling and responses to atmospheric conditions, we integrated a microbe- and mineral-surface-explicit model, the Reaction-network-based model of soil organic matter and Microbes (ReSOM), into the Energy Exascale ESM (E3SM) land model (ELM). Here, we describe ELM-ReSOM and show a case study at a conifer forest in California. ELM-ReSOM accurately simulated surface CO 2 fluxes and SOM stocks, demonstrating improved representations of microbial and mineral interactions compared to the default ELM. We examined ELM-ReSOM sensitivity to microbial traits, enzyme properties, and organo-mineral interactions. Microbial traits such as the maximum mortality rate, transporter-density scaling factor, and maximum monomer assimilation rate were strong controllers of heterotrophic respiration, while these microbial traits and enzyme-related properties collectively influenced SOM stocks. Mineral surfaces primarily affected SOM stocks by adsorbing enzymes, thereby limiting depolymerization. Synergies among processes led to stronger impacts of parameters when evaluated together versus separately (i.e., most parameters had greater indirect than direct effects). For example, due to interactions of microbial necromass with mineral surface adsorption, the indirect effect of the maximum microbial mortality rate was 33% larger than its direct effect on SOM stock. Thus, microbial and enzyme dynamics and their interactions with mineral surfaces play critical roles in SOM cycling. Tackling the challenges of microbe-explicit models will advance understanding and modeling of SOM dynamics.

Tao, Jing [Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (↗
DOE OSTI2025

Remotely Sensed High‐Resolution Soil Moisture and Evapotranspiration: Bridging the Gap Between Science and Society

This paper reviews the current state of high‐resolution remotely sensed soil moisture (SM) and evapotranspiration (ET) products and modeling, and the coupling relationship between SM and ET. SM downscaling approaches for satellite passive microwave products leverage advances in artificial intelligence and high‐resolution remote sensing using visible, near‐infrared, thermal‐infrared, and synthetic aperture radar sensors. Remotely sensed ET continues to advance in spatiotemporal resolutions from MODIS to ECOSTRESS to Hydrosat and beyond. These advances enable a new understanding of bio‐geo‐physical controls and coupled feedback mechanisms between SM and ET reflecting the land cover and land use at field scale (3–30 m, daily). Still, the state‐of‐the‐science products have their challenges and limitations, which we detail across data, retrieval algorithms, and applications. We describe the roles of these data in advancing 10 application areas: drought assessment, food security, precision agriculture, soil salinization, wildfire modeling, dust monitoring, flood forecasting, urban water, energy, and ecosystem management, ecohydrology, and biodiversity conservation. We discuss that future scientific advancement should focus on developing open‐access, high‐resolution (3–30 m), sub‐daily SM and ET products, enabling the evaluation of hydrological processes at finer scales and revolutionizing the societal applications in data‐limited regions of the world, especially the Global South for socio‐economic development.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Targeted assemblies of cas1 suggest CRISPR-Cas’s response to soil warming

Abstract There is an increasing interest in the clustered regularly interspaced short palindromic repeats CRISPR-associated protein (CRISPR-Cas) system to reveal potential virus–host dynamics. The universal and most conserved Cas protein, cas1 is an ideal marker to elucidate CRISPR-Cas ecology. We constructed eight Hidden Markov Models (HMMs) and assembled cas1 directly from metagenomes by a targeted-gene assembler, Xander, to improve detection capacity and resolve the diverse CRISPR-Cas systems. The eight HMMs were first validated by recovering all 17 cas1 subtypes from the simulated metagenome generated from 91 prokaryotic genomes across 11 phyla. We challenged the targeted method with 48 metagenomes from a tallgrass prairie in Central Oklahoma recovering 3394 cas1. Among those, 88 were near full length, 5 times more than in de-novo assemblies from the Oklahoma metagenomes. To validate the host assignment by cas1, the targeted-assembled cas1 was mapped to the de-novo assembled contigs. All the phylum assignments of those mapped contigs were assigned independent of CRISPR-Cas genes on the same contigs and consistent with the host taxonomies predicted by the mapped cas1. We then investigated whether 8 years of soil warming altered cas1 prevalence within the communities. A shift in microbial abundances was observed during the year with the biggest temperature differential (mean 4.16 °C above ambient). cas1 prevalence increased and even in the phyla with decreased microbial abundances over the next 3 years, suggesting increasing virus–host interactions in response to soil warming. This targeted method provides an alternative means to effectively mine cas1 from metagenomes and uncover the host communities.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Quantification of human contribution to soil moisture-based terrestrial aridity

Abstract Current knowledge of the spatiotemporal patterns of changes in soil moisture-based terrestrial aridity has considerable uncertainty. Using Standardized Soil Moisture Index (SSI) calculated from multi-source merged data sets, we find widespread drying in the global midlatitudes, and wetting in the northern subtropics and in spring between 45°N–65°N, during 1971–2016. Formal detection and attribution analysis shows that human forcings, especially greenhouse gases, contribute significantly to the changes in 0–10 cm SSI during August–November, and 0–100 cm during September–April. We further develop and apply an emergent constraint method on the future SSI’s signal-to-noise (S/N) ratios and trends under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway 5-8.5. The results show continued significant presence of human forcings and more rapid drying in 0–10 cm than 0–100 cm. Our findings highlight the predominant human contributions to spatiotemporally heterogenous terrestrial aridification, providing a basis for drought and flood risk management.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗