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The Experimental Regional Ensemble Forecast System (ExREF): Its Use in NWS Forecast Operations and Preliminary Verification

The Experimental Regional Ensemble Forecast (ExREF) system is a tool for the development and testing of new Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) methodologies. ExREF is run in near‐realtime by the Global Systems Division (GSD) of the NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory (ESRL) and its products are made available through a website, an ftp site, and via the Unidata Local Data Manager (LDM). The ExREF domain covers most of North America and has 9‐km horizontal grid spacing. The ensemble has eight members, all employing WRF‐ARW. The ensemble uses a variety of initial conditions from LAPS and the Global Forecasting System (GFS) and multiple boundary conditions from the GFS ensemble. Additionally, a diversity of physical parameterizations is used to increase ensemble spread and to account for the uncertainty in forecasting extreme precipitation events. ExREF has been a component of the Hydrometeorology Testbed (HMT) NWP suite in the 2012‐2013 and 2013‐2014 winters. A smaller domain covering just the West Coast was created to minimize band‐width consumption for the NWS. This smaller domain has and is being distributed to the National Weather Service (NWS) Weather Forecast Office and California Nevada River Forecast Center in Sacramento, California, where it is ingested into the Advanced Weather Interactive Processing System (AWIPS I and II) to provide guidance on the forecasting of extreme precipitation events. This paper will review the cooperative effort employed by NOAA ESRL, NASA SPoRT (Short‐term Prediction Research and Transition Center), and the NWS to facilitate the ingest and display of ExREF data utilizing the AWIPS I and II D2D and GFE (Graphical Software Editor) software. Within GFE is a very useful verification software package called BoiVer that allows the NWS to utilize the River Forecast Center's 4 km gridded QPE to compare with all operational NWP models 6‐hr QPF along with the ExREF mean 6‐hr QPF so the forecasters can build confidence in the use of the ExREF in preparing their rainfall forecasts. Preliminary results will be presented.

Reynolds, David↗

Investigation of the Use of Dynamic Probabilistic Risk Assessment Methodologies for Identifying Digital I&C System Common Cause Failures

Digital Instrumentation and Control (I&C) systems have a key role in nuclear power plants in the upgrade of aging analog systems. Digital systems improve plant safety and reliability through features such as increased hardware reliability and stability and improved failure detection capability. There is no consensus on which of the current probabilistic risk assessment methods are most suitable for use in the reliability analysis of digital I&C systems. While the traditional event-tree/fault-tree (ET/FT) approach is still used for their reliability modeling, there are concerns regarding this approach in properly accounting for dynamic interactions among system components since potentially significant dependencies among failure events may not be identified and/or their likelihood may not be properly quantified. Dynamic methodologies are expected to provide a much more accurate representation of probabilistic evolution of the I&C systems in time due to their capability to more properly account for complex interactions than the static approach. The applicability of dynamic PRA methodologies for digital I&C system is investigated using the criteria presented in the NUREG/CR-6901, and the comparisons made in NUREG/CR-6901 are updated in light of the latest studies. The Dynamic Event Tree (DET) approach has been identified as one of the top dynamic methods when evaluated against the requirements for the reliability modeling of digital I&C systems. The DET method is a strong candidate for integration into existing PRA studies, as it bears many similarities to the traditional ET approach. In this study, the DET approach has been applied to the Plant Protection System of the APR1400 design, and the results are compared to results from its available traditional ET/FT analysis. Possible approaches to evaluate and quantify the effects of common cause failures on system safety using dynamic methods are also examined.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

A Comprehensive Reliability Methodology for Assessing Risk of Reusing Failed Hardware Without Corrective Actions with and Without Redundancy

This paper deals with the development of a reliability methodology to assess the consequences of using hardware, without failure analysis or corrective action, that has previously demonstrated that it did not perform per specification. The subject of this paper arose from the need to provide a detailed probabilistic analysis to calculate the change in probability of failures with respect to the base or non-failed hardware. The methodology used for the analysis is primarily based on principles of Monte Carlo simulation. The random variables in the analysis are: Maximum Time of Operation (MTO) and operation Time of each Unit (OTU) The failure of a unit is considered to happen if (OTU) is less than MTO for the Normal Operational Period (NOP) in which this unit is used. NOP as a whole uses a total of 4 units. Two cases are considered. in the first specialized scenario, the failure of any operation or system failure is considered to happen if any of the units used during the NOP fail. in the second specialized scenario, the failure of any operation or system failure is considered to happen only if any two of the units used during the MOP fail together. The probability of failure of the units and the system as a whole is determined for 3 kinds of systems - Perfect System, Imperfect System 1 and Imperfect System 2. in a Perfect System, the operation time of the failed unit is the same as that of the MTO. In an Imperfect System 1, the operation time of the failed unit is assumed as 1 percent of the MTO. In an Imperfect System 2, the operation time of the failed unit is assumed as zero. in addition, simulated operation time of failed units is assumed as 10 percent of the corresponding units before zero value. Monte Carlo simulation analysis is used for this study. Necessary software has been developed as part of this study to perform the reliability calculations. The results of the analysis showed that the predicted change in failure probability (P(sub F)) for the previously failed units is as high as 49 percent above the baseline (perfect system) for the worst case. The predicted change in system P(sub F) for the previously failed units is as high as 36% for single unit failure without any redundancy. For redundant systems, with dual unit failure, the predicted change in P(sub F) for the previously failed units is as high as 16%. These results will help management to make decisions regarding the consequences of using previously failed units without adequate failure analysis or corrective action.

Putcha, Chandra S.↗

An intelligent training system for space shuttle flight controllers

An autonomous intelligent training system which integrates expert system technology with training/teaching methodologies is described. The system was designed to train Mission Control Center (MCC) Flight Dynamics Officers (FDOs) to deploy a certain type of satellite from the Space Shuttle. The Payload-assist module Deploys/Intelligent Computer-Aided Training (PD/ICAT) system consists of five components: a user interface, a domain expert, a training session manager, a trainee model, and a training scenario generator. The interface provides the trainee with information of the characteristics of the current training session and with on-line help. The domain expert (DeplEx for Deploy Expert) contains the rules and procedural knowledge needed by the FDO to carry out the satellite deploy. The DeplEx also contains mal-rules which permit the identification and diagnosis of common errors made by the trainee. The training session manager (TSM) examines the actions of the trainee and compares them with the actions of DeplEx in order to determine appropriate responses. A trainee model is developed for each individual using the system. The model includes a history of the trainee's interactions with the training system and provides evaluative data on the trainee's current skill level. A training scenario generator (TSG) designs appropriate training exercises for each trainee based on the trainee model and the training goals. All of the expert system components of PD/ICAT communicate via a common blackboard. The PD/ICAT is currently being tested. Ultimately, this project will serve as a vehicle for developing a general architecture for intelligent training systems together with a software environment for creating such systems.

Loftin, R. Bowen↗

An intelligent training system for space shuttle flight controllers

An autonomous intelligent training system which integrates expert system technology with training/teaching methodologies is described. The system was designed to train Mission Control Center (MCC) Flight Dynamics Officers (FDOs) to deploy a certain type of satellite from the Space Shuttle. The Payload-assist module Deploys/Intelligent Computer-Aided Training (PD/ICAT) system consists of five components: a user interface, a domain expert, a training session manager, a trainee model, and a training scenario generator. The interface provides the trainee with information of the characteristics of the current training session and with on-line help. The domain expert (Dep1Ex for Deploy Expert) contains the rules and procedural knowledge needed by the FDO to carry out the satellite deploy. The Dep1Ex also contains mal-rules which permit the identification and diagnosis of common errors made by the trainee. The training session manager (TSM) examines the actions of the trainee and compares them with the actions of Dep1Ex in order to determine appropriate responses. A trainee model is developed for each individual using the system. The model includes a history of the trainee's interactions with the training system and provides evaluative data on the trainee's current skill level. A training scenario generator (TSG) designs appropriate training exercises for each trainee based on the trainee model and the training goals. All of the expert system components of PD/ICAT communicate via a common blackboard. The PD/ICAT is currently being tested. Ultimately, this project will serve as a vehicle for developing a general architecture for intelligent training systems together with a software environment for creating such systems.

Loftin, R. Bowen↗

Towards a Decision Support System for Space Flight Operations

The Mission Operations Directorate (MOD) at the Johnson Space Center (JSC) has put in place a Model Based Systems Engineering (MBSE) technological framework for the development and execution of the Flight Production Process (FPP). This framework has provided much added value and return on investment to date. This paper describes a vision for a model based Decision Support System (DSS) for the development and execution of the FPP and its design and development process. The envisioned system extends the existing MBSE methodology and technological framework which is currently in use. The MBSE technological framework currently in place enables the systematic collection and integration of data required for building an FPP model for a diverse set of missions. This framework includes the technology, people and processes required for rapid development of architectural artifacts. It is used to build a feasible FPP model for the first flight of spacecraft and for recurrent flights throughout the life of the program. This model greatly enhances our ability to effectively engage with a new customer. It provides a preliminary work breakdown structure, data flow information and a master schedule based on its existing knowledge base. These artifacts are then refined and iterated upon with the customer for the development of a robust end-to-end, high-level integrated master schedule and its associated dependencies. The vision is to enhance this framework to enable its application for uncertainty management, decision support and optimization of the design and execution of the FPP by the program. Furthermore, this enhanced framework will enable the agile response and redesign of the FPP based on observed system behavior. The discrepancy of the anticipated system behavior and the observed behavior may be due to the processing of tasks internally, or due to external factors such as changes in program requirements or conditions associated with other organizations that are outside of MOD. The paper provides a roadmap for the three increments of this vision. These increments include (1) hardware and software system components and interfaces with the NASA ground system, (2) uncertainty management and (3) re-planning and automated execution. Each of these increments provide value independently; but some may also enable building of a subsequent increment.

Meshkat, Leila↗

Towards a decision support system for space flight operations

The Mission Operations Directorate (MOD) at the Johnson Space Center (JSC) has put in place a Model Based Systems Engineering (MBSE) technological framework for the development and execution of the Flight Production Process (FPP). This framework has provided much added value and return on investment to date. This paper describes a vision for a model based Decision Support System (DSS) for the development and execution of the FPP and its design and development process. The envisioned system extends the existing MBSE methodology and technological framework which is currently in use. The MBSE technological framework currently in place enables the systematic collection and integration of data required for building an FPP model for a diverse set of missions. This framework includes the technology, people and processes required for rapid development of architectural artifacts. It is used to build a feasible FPP model for the first flight of spacecraft and for recurrent flights throughout the life of the program. This model greatly enhances our ability to effectively engage with a new customer. It provides a preliminary work breakdown structure, data flow information and a master schedule based on its existing knowledge base. These artifacts are then refined and iterated upon with the customer for the development of a robust end-to-end, high-level integrated master schedule and its associated dependencies. The vision is to enhance this framework to enable its application for uncertainty management, decision support and optimization of the design and execution of the FPP by the program. Furthermore, this enhanced framework will enable the agile response and redesign of the FPP based on observed system behavior. The differences between the anticipated system behavior and the observed behavior may be due to the processing of tasks internally, or due to external factors such as changes in program requirements or conditions associated with other organizations that are outside of MOD. The paper provides a roadmap for the four increments of this vision. These increments include (1) the existing capabilities (2) hardware and software system components and interfaces with the NASA ground system, (3) uncertainty management and (4) re-planning and automated execution. Each of these increments provides value independently; but some may also enable building of a subsequent increment.

Ruszkowski, James↗

Implementation of Human System Integration Workshop at NASA for Human Spaceflight

The human is a key element in the complex system of systems underlying space exploration missions. As a critical system, its operating bands and requirements need to be characterized and integrated with other systems. Optimal integration of the human system with hardware and software elements has an impact on multiple aspects of mission execution, including human health and performance, risk mitigation, effective design and functionality, enhanced safety, and reduced lifecycle costs. The field of Human Systems Integration (HSI) represents an interdisciplinary and comprehensive cross-cutting approach encompassing technical and management processes for integrating human as a system consideration and objective within and across all other system components and multiple domains. In addition to human activities, HSI covers training, operations and support dimensions. Moreover, HSI is an essential enabler to systems engineering practice, emphasizing human system aspects toward optimizing fully integrated system of systems performance while systematically infusing the needs of all users during the earliest stages of development. Consistent with the National Space Exploration Campaign, NASA is developing the Gateway, a lunar orbiting platform that will serve as astronaut habitat, support transit to deep space, validate new technologies and systems, and function as a science laboratory and communications hub, among other uses. It is an essential element of a phase that will extend human exploration into deep space through evolvable infrastructure and advanced technology, supporting assembly and logistics of other exploration architecture elements. In an effort to explore the current status and forward plan of HSI implementation in the mission (system of systems) lifecycle, the HSI Employee Resource Group conducted an HSI workshop using the Gateway Program as a case study. It revealed how different organizations at the Johnson Space Center incorporate HSI in their processes in preparation for the development and operation of the Gateway. The workshop focused on HSI methodology for implementation of the six NASA HSI domains: Human Factors Engineering, Operations Resources, Habitability and Environment, Maintainability and Supportability, Safety, and Training. Results from the workshop are reported on this paper, as well as some historical background of HSI at NASA, and the success in using an Employee Resource Group to promote technical knowledge. The authors hope that this information can be used to disseminate best practices for translational applications to other space exploration systems.

Silva-Martinez, Jackelynne↗

Implementation of Human System Integration Workshop at NASA for Human Spaceflight

The human is a key element in the complex system of systems underlying space exploration missions. As a critical system, its operating bands and requirements need to be characterized and integrated with other systems. Optimal integration of the human system with hardware and software elements has an impact on multiple aspects of mission execution, including human health and performance, risk mitigation, effective design and functionality, enhanced safety, and reduced lifecycle costs. The field of Human Systems Integration (HSI) represents an interdisciplinary and comprehensive cross-cutting approach encompassing technical and management processes for integrating human as a system consideration and objective within and across all other system components and multiple domains. In addition to human activities, HSI covers training, operations and support dimensions. Moreover, HSI is an essential enabler to systems engineering practice, emphasizing human system aspects toward optimizing fully integrated system of systems performance while systematically infusing the needs of all users during the earliest stages of development. Consistent with the National Space Exploration Campaign, NASA is developing the Gateway, a lunar orbiting platform that will serve as astronaut habitat, support transit to deep space, validate new technologies and systems, and function as a science laboratory and communications hub, among other uses. It is an essential element of a phase that will extend human exploration into deep space through evolvable infrastructure and advanced technology, supporting assembly and logistics of other exploration architecture elements. In an effort to explore the current status and forward plan of HSI implementation in the mission (system of systems) lifecycle, the HSI Employee Resource Group conducted an HSI workshop using the Gateway Program as a case study. It revealed how different organizations at the Johnson Space Center incorporate HSI in their processes in preparation for the development and operation of the Gateway. The workshop focused on HSI methodology for implementation of the six NASA HSI domains: Human Factors Engineering, Operations Resources, Habitability and Environment, Maintainability and Supportability, Safety, and Training. Results from the workshop are reported on this paper, as well as some historical background of HSI at NASA, and the success in using an Employee Resource Group to promote technical knowledge. The authors hope that this information can be used to disseminate best practices for translational applications to other space exploration systems.

Silva-Martinez, Jackelynne↗

ISS Technology Demonstrations for Future Spaceflight Medical Systems

Throughout the history of human spaceflight, crewmembers have experienced various in-flight medical conditions including illness and injury. Planned missions to the Moon and Mars will require capabilities to maintain the health of future space travelers. Mass, power, and volume available in the vehicles and habitats for these missions will be severely constrained; resupply of resources will be limited or non-existent, as will opportunities for evacuation to Earth. Furthermore, ground-based support will be hampered by communication latencies and blackouts. These vehicle and mission constraints will necessitate a medical system that has been efficiently planned, providing on-board procedural guidance in addition to a variety of medical devices and consumable resources. Medical capabilities required for the diagnosis and treatment of potential medical conditions during future spaceflight missions may include real-time health monitoring, medical imaging, and biomarker analyses ( e.g., blood or urine). Terrestrial medicine shares these needs, thus many of these medical capabilities could likely be satisfied by Commercial-Off-The-Shelf (COTS) devices and methodologies; however, in some cases the unique space environment and increased mission duration will drive the need to modify technologies and the way care is provided. NASA’s Human Research Program (HRP) Exploration Medical Capability (ExMC) Element and Mars Campaign Office’s Exploration Medical Integrated Product Team (XMIPT) are working together to decrease medical risk during exploration missions. Flight-tested medical diagnostic and treatment technologies are necessary to effectively manage medical conditions relevant to exploration missions while meeting vehicle constraints, integrating with medical decision-support tools, and enabling increasingly Earth-independent operations. Several projects have leveraged the ISS as a testbed for exploration, including 1) i n- situ blood analysis, 2) medical inventory, 3) intravenous fluid generation, and 4) autonomous medical procedure guidance. Management of several in-flight medical conditions, such as bacterial and viral infections and acute radiation syndrome, is dramatically improved with ability to assess blood cell populations, electrolytes, and metabolites. I n December 2020 and January 2021 ExMC performed an ISS technology demonstration (Tech Demo) of the HemoCue® WBC DIFF analyzer (HemoCue, Brea, CA), a COTS device that was modified to enable functionality in a spaceflight environment. This Tech Demo marked the first time that hematology measurements were successfully performed real-time in microgravity. Also modified and demonstrated was the reusable Handheld Electrolytes and Lab Technology for Humans (rHEALTH) ONE analyzer (rHEALTH, Bedford, MA), which uses flow cytometry and sheath-based hydrodynamic focusing methodologies. The rHEALTH ONE ISS Tech Demo in May 2022 demonstrated test results obtained in-flight matched those on the ground. NASA currently relies on crew self-reporting to manage and maintain medical inventory on ISS.The ability to maintain an accurate inventory becomes more critical during long duration missions since the crew will need to be increasingly autonomous in finding and utilizing medical items, including those scenarios when alternative treatments need to be considered due to limited or no resupply. HRP’s Medical Consumables Tracking (MCT) project was developed by ZIN Technologies, Inc. (Cleveland, OH), and demonstrated real-time tracking of medical supplies aboard the ISS between December 2016 and July 2018. The MCT system design utilized Radio Frequency Identification Device (RFID) technology to perform automated inventory and was installed in the Crew Health Care System (CHeCS) Resupply Stowage Rack (RSR). The challenge of limited shelf life, exacerbated by the lack of resupply opportunities, affects a plethora of medical system components including consumables, pharmaceuticals, and intravenous (IV) fluid. In 2010, ExMC funded ZIN Technologies, Inc. (Cleveland, OH), to develop the Intravenous Fluid Generation (IVGEN) system. IV fluids were successfully generated with IVGEN using the potable water supply on ISS during ISS Expedition 23. The XMIPT is in the process of developing a miniaturized version of the original IVGEN hardware for a future Tech Demo aboard the ISS. Current ISS medical operations rely heavily on preflight training and real-time remote guidance, both of which become impractical or impossible for exploration missions. The primary goal of the Autonomous Medical Officer Support (AMOS) Software Tech Demos on ISS was to confirm telemedical proof-of-concept for autonomous medical imaging in an operational setting. This novel software tool shifts emphasis from preflight training and real-time remote guidance to in-flight just-in-time instruction, a new and necessary paradigm for crew medical autonomy. AMOS introduces a novel, streamlined skill management concept for exploration missions featuring comprehensive training and guidance modules for ultrasound examinations using the ISS Ultrasound 2 (a modified GE Vivid-q™; General Electric HealthCare, Chicago, IL). With no prior crew training or remote guidance, two Tech Demos on the ISS (April 2020 and June 2022) resulted in high quality, clinically useful image sets. We will provide a review of historical, current, and planned medical devices and technologies considered for inclusion within future spaceflight medical systems and summarize hardware development activities and medical device tech demos conducted on the ISS.

Astronaut health and performance↗

Composite Analysis Solid Waste Release Data Reduction of Activity Flux from Waste Sites to the Vadose Zone for Baseline Assessment

This environmental calculation file (ECF) describes the data reduction methodology for the solid waste release datasets generated by the Composite Analysis Solid Waste Release (CASWR) model (CP-62766, Model Package Report: Composite Analysis Solid Waste Release Model [CASWR Model]) and documents the resulting reduced datasets for the updated Composite Analysis (CA) baseline assessment. This ECF is in support of the updated Hanford Site CA. The purpose of the updated Hanford Site CA is to provide an estimate of the cumulative radiological impacts from active and planned low-level radioactive waste disposals and other potentially interacting radioactive waste disposal sources that will remain following Hanford Site closure. The vadose zone modeling activities associated with the CA includes solid waste forms as contaminant sources. To support the modeling of solid waste transport from the vadose zone to the groundwater at the Hanford Site, the CASWR model was designed to generate deterministic radionuclide release rates for the Hanford Site Central Plateau solid waste disposal sites. The complete CASWR model-generated dataset for the CA Baseline Assessment consists of 2,378,831 sets of time and release rates (1,073,869 sets for the 200 East Area and 1,304,962 sets for the 200 West Area), representing a course of the simulation from year 1953 to year 12,069, 16 radiological contaminants of potential concern (COPCs), and 237 solid waste sources as documented in ECFHANFORD- 19-0112, Solid Waste Release Calculations for the Composite Analysis Baseline Assessment. For several of the STOMP vadose zone models, the number of release rate data pairs required for release at all waste sites would exceed the limitations imposed by the STOMP modelling software package used to simulate contaminant transport through the vadose zone. As a result, a data reduction of the CASWR dataset is required prior to its use as a source input for the CA vadose zone modeling activities.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Thermomechanical Stress and Creep-Fatigue Analysis of a High-Temperature Prototype Receiver for Heating Particles

This work presents a three-dimensional (3D) thermomechanical model of a prototype-scale enclosed light trapping solar receiver for heating particles. Results of the thermoelastic model are used to estimate receiver lifetime under maximum flux conditions. A computational fluid dynamics (CFD) model is first developed to predict the temperature fields in a multi-panel assembly under steady operating conditions. Solar flux distributions on the receiver are obtained from the software package SolTrace and applied to the 3D thermal model. The subsequent particle heating is captured through a simplified 1D energy balance. Panel reradiation is considered through a surface-to-surface radiation model and natural convection loss to the surrounding air is captured in a representative fluid domain surrounding the receiver. The resulting temperature fields from the CFD analysis are used as inputs for a thermoelastic mechanical model with representative boundary conditions. With the resultant temperature and stress fields, a creep-fatigue damage and lifetime analysis is performed using the linear damage accumulation (LDA) theory. The Manson-Coffin formula and Larson Miller correlation are used to calculate the fatigue and creep, respectively. A maximum damage (corresponding to a 30-year service life) is defined for design assessment. The model was first developed and verified in detail by comparing with published results in the literature (temperature and stress profiles and distributions, and creep/fatigue damage fractions) for tubular solar receivers with supercritical carbon dioxide as the working fluid. It was then implemented to model a planar-cavity receiver with various design parameters. Specifically, three different design geometries are considered, and the results show that a maximum temperature of approximately 1200 K could be reached for each design with the given incident solar flux, with the main difference being the distribution of these temperatures. Preliminary resulting stresses for the small-scale prototype without design optimization vary from 20 MPa to 250 MPa for each design, with the maximum stresses occurring on the front face and concave geometry on the side of the panel. In future work, the developed methodology shown here will be applied to analyze a full-scale (50-150 MWth) receiver.

concentrated solar power↗

Rapid Evaluation and Response to Impacts on Critical End-Use Loads Following Natural Hazard-Driven Power Outages: A Modular and Responsive Geospatial Technology

The disparate nature of data for electric power utilities complicates the emergency recovery and response process. The reduced efficiency of response to natural hazards and disasters can extend the time that electrical service is not available for critical end-use loads, and in extreme events, leave the public without power for extended periods. This article presents a methodology for the development of a semantic data model for power systems and the integration of electrical grid topology, population, and electric distribution line reliability indices into a unified, cloud-based, serverless framework that supports power system operations in response to extreme events. An iterative and pragmatic approach to working with large and disparate datasets of different formats and types resulted in improved application runtime and efficiency, which is important to consider in real time decision-making processes during hurricanes and similar catastrophic events. This technology was developed initially for Puerto Rico, following extreme hurricane and earthquake events in 2017 and 2020, but is applicable to utilities around the world. Given the highly abstract and modular design approach, this technology is equally applicable to any geographic region and similar natural hazard events. In addition to a review of the requirements, development, and deployment of this framework, technical aspects related to application performance and response time are highlighted.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

A Virtual Laboratory for Aviation and Airspace Prognostics Research

Integration of Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs), autonomy, spacecraft, and other aviation technologies, in the airspace is becoming more and more complicated, and will continue to do so in the future. Inclusion of new technology and complexity into the airspace increases the importance and difficulty of safety assurance. Additionally, testing new technologies on complex aviation systems and systems of systems can be challenging, expensive, and at times unsafe when implementing real life scenarios. The application of prognostics to aviation and airspace management may produce new tools and insight into these problems. Prognostic methodology provides an estimate of the health and risks of a component, vehicle, or airspace and knowledge of how that will change over time. That measure is especially useful in safety determination, mission planning, and maintenance scheduling. In our research, we develop a live, distributed, hardware- in-the-loop Prognostics Virtual Laboratory testbed for aviation and airspace prognostics. The developed testbed will be used to validate prediction algorithms for the real-time safety monitoring of the National Airspace System (NAS) and the prediction of unsafe events. In our earlier work1 we discussed the initial Prognostics Virtual Laboratory testbed development work and related results for milestones 1 & 2. This paper describes the design, development, and testing of the integrated tested which are part of milestone 3, along with our next steps for validation of this work. Through a framework consisting of software/hardware modules and associated interface clients, the distributed testbed enables safe, accurate, and inexpensive experimentation and research into airspace and vehicle prognosis that would not have been possible otherwise. The testbed modules can be used cohesively to construct complex and relevant airspace scenarios for research. Four modules are key to this research: the virtual aircraft module which uses the X-Plane simulator and X-PlaneConnect toolbox, the live aircraft module which connects fielded aircraft using onboard cellular communications devices, the hardware in the loop (HITL) module which connects laboratory based bench-top hardware testbeds and the research module which contains diagnostics and prognostics tools for analysis of live air traffic situations and vehicle health conditions. The testbed also features other modules for data recording and playback, information visualization, and air traffic generation. Software reliability, safety, and latency are some of the critical design considerations in development of the testbed.

LVC-DE↗

Laboratory Investigation of the Effect of Venusian Weathering on Mineral Spectra

Introduction: The recent selection of two missions to Venus has renewed the importance of deter-mining weathering reactions between minerals and the Venusian atmosphere, and the spectral signatures of minerals before, during, and after these reactions. The rate at which weathering reactions progress also constrain show long unstable minerals will be present on the surface (e.g., [1]), and enables the use of mineralogy as a constraint on surface age(e.g., [2-3]).In order to gain an understanding of how mineral compositions and spectra change with weathering, we have begun conducting experiments in a 1 atm experimental setup at Wesleyan University. This setup exposes minerals to the temperature and most abundant gases of the Venus atmosphere (CO2, SO2, N2).We conducted initial experiments using biotite, calcite, and montmorillonite in order to test our methodology with minerals that may be relevant to recording the history of water on Venus. Methods: Experiments were conducted in Thermo Fisher Scientific Lindberg/Blue M Mini-Mite horizontal tube furnaces at Wesleyan University. Experiments used natural mineral chips and powders, and were conducted at 1 atmosphere and 460 °C under pre-mixed gases provided by Air Gas(Table 1). The furnaces are set up in a flow through configuration so that solid samples are exposed to a fixed gas composition, and quartz glass process tubes were used in all experiments (1/4” diameter for experiment V4, ½” diameter for all others). These conditions were maintained for the du-rations listed in Table 1, at which point the furnace was turned off with gas flowing until the sample was cool enough to extract under N2and be placed in a desiccator for storage. Run products were carbon coated and examined using a Hitachi SU5000 Field Emission Gun Scanning Electron Microscope (SEM) equipped with an EDAX Octane Pro EDS detector located at Wesley-an University. Visible-Near Infrared Spectroscopy (VNIR) analysis was performed on powdered samples under a nitrogen atmosphere using an ASD Fieldspec Proover the 350-2500 nm range. Powdered mineral samples were milled to a particle size of < 45μm and were spiked with an internal standard (Al2O3, corundum) to obtain quantitative mineralogy. Samples were analyzed using a Panalytical X’Pert pro X-ray Diffractometer (XRD), with an X’Celerator high speed detector and Co Kα radiation, with data collected at a step size of 0.02 ̊/minute step counting rate from 2 to 80 degrees 2θ at 45 mA/40kV in the X-ray Diffraction Laboratory located at NASA Johnson Space Center. Materials Data Inc (MDI) software suite, JadeTMv9 was used for Rietveld refinement to determine phase abundances and mineral identification by comparing XRD patterns to International Center for Diffraction Data (ICDD) database patterns. Table 1: Experimental matrix. Experiment Name Duration (Days)Gas Com-position (trace gas)MineralsV487SO2/N2(1.4%)Montmorillonite, biotiteV519SO2/N2(1.4%)CalciteV619CO2/SO2/N2(1.4% SO2, 2.1% N2)Montmorillonite, biotiteV828SO2/N2(1.4%)Biotite, calcite Results: Calcite. In both experiments, calcite was exposed to the SO2/N2gas mixture, and in both experimental run products, XRD analysis detected anhydrite, which is consistent with EDS measurements conducted in the SEM. The XRD analyses show greater amounts of anhydrite present after 28 days than 19, suggesting the calcite reaction progressed further given longer duration. Grain surface morphology as seen in the SEM also shows secondary mineral growth (Fig. 1). VNIR spectra show no change, as expected since anhydrite lacks spectral features in this wavelength range. Montmorillonite. Montmorillonite was exposed to two different gas mixtures, the SO2/N2mix and CO2/SO2/N2mix over different durations (87 and 19 days, respectively). VNIR analyses of both run products show a reduction in the 1441and1910 nm water features as well as a shift of the 1411 and 2011 nm features to shorter wavelengths that may indicate re-structuring in the crystal lattice and the production of amorphous phases [4]. XRD results are consistent with this, showing a shift of the 001 peak from 15Åto 10Åin both run products. The amount of X-ray amorphous material in the montmorillonite run products was greater than that present in the unreacted clay, being the greatest in the 87 day V4 experiment. No other secondary phases were detected in the run products, however sulfur was present in EDS analyses of powder samples.

A R Santos↗

System Analysis Modeling and Intermodal Transportation for Commercial Spent Nuclear Fuel

The United States Department of Energy (DOE) has long term goals to develop solutions for managing the nation’s spent nuclear fuel (SNF) and high-level waste (HLW) inventory. The Integrated Waste Management (IWM) program under the DOE office of Nuclear Energy (DOE-NE) is employing system-level engineering and analysis principles to inform potential future waste management system architectures. Managing the spent nuclear waste requires the use of system-level analysis software that takes various aspects of the fuel cycle into account like waste generation, on-site/centralized storage, transportation infrastructure, and long-term disposal. The Next Generation System Analysis Model (NGSAM) is an agent-based model that was developed to simulate the transportation and storage of SNF and HLW. As an agent-based model, NGSAM has the capability to detail the interaction and movement of individual components and groups, such as rail cars and casks. The SNF inventory from commercial nuclear reactors is currently in temporary storage at multiple locations spread across the United States. Shipping of SNF from these locations relies on one of three transportation modes: rail, heavy-haul truck, or barge. Out of the three modes identified, rail is generally the most preferred due to the size of the canisters and casks the SNF would be shipped in. However, under some scenarios, a direct rail route might not be readily available to a reactor site or improving the rail infrastructure at shutdown sites might be too cost-prohibitive for utilities to opt for a direct rail transfer. Under such scenarios, using a barge or heavy haul truck to de-inventory the site and transfer the SNF to a nearby intermodal transfer site with adequate rail infrastructure where the payload could be transferred to a rail car might prove to be an attractive option. This work initially presents the various intermodal transportation options that could be used to transfer SNF from reactor sites to rail cars. This is followed by exploring the operational steps in each of these modes to move the SNF from a reactor site and transfer it to a rail car. This work also presents the procedure of implementing the intermodal transfer methodology in NGSAM using various Java methods. Finally, the process times for accomplishing each of the individual steps are furnished. The implementation ideology, assumptions, and future steps are presented in this work.

Gadey, Harish Reddy↗

Hybrid Tandem Photovoltaics

Tandem solar cell structures are the only strategy demonstrated to surpass the detailed balance efficiency limit of high-quality single-junction solar cells. To continue to improve the efficiencies of cost-effective terrestrial solar power, hybrid tandems of dissimilar subcells are being considered by many around the world, especially designs that incorporate silicon solar cells as a bottom subcell. In this project, we studied a wide variety of tandem design possibilities including those with three-terminal (3T) and four-terminal (4T) configurations. The use of 3T and 4T designs could be useful for efficient and economical hybrid tandem designs that utilize the best available subcell materials such as emerging perovskite materials. Three-terminal configurations, in particular, have not been sufficiently studied previously. We have laid the foundational groundwork in this project for understanding the operation of 3T tandems: developing a taxonomy for naming, a methodology for measuring and interconnecting, and models for simply characterizing 3T tandems. Electrical and optical subcell coupling between the subcells was also measured and modeled. An important part of this work was the fabrication of novel example tandem structures, including 4T GaAs/Si, 3T GaInP/Si, 3T GaAs/Si, and 3T GaInP/GaAs devices. Using these high-quality tandem cells, we have been able to clearly demonstrate the achievability of high-efficiencies, and subtle physical effects such as photon recycling and luminescent coupling. We have developed and demonstrated essential building-block tools such as transparent conductive adhesives (TCA) and 3T silicon bottom cells with interdigitated back contacts (IBC) that can also be used in many other tandem designs. We have tested the reliability of these tools and devices under standardized testing and outdoor measurements. We have found 4T GaAs/Si tandems to be relatively straightforward to fabricate and robust in real-world outdoor conditions. While we have demonstrated working hybrid 3T III-V/TCA/Si IBC tandems, we experienced low yields even with our best process flows yet. Further work is still needed to improve the processing yield of these devices. We therefore also created tandem cells using an all-III-V 3T tandem process which was very robust with high yields, allowing for the creation of voltage-matched strings in many different configurations using 8 nearly identical 3T tandems. Using these robust 3T tandem examples, we were able measure and precisely characterize 3T tandem behaviors to predict their operation under changing spectrum and temperature. The optoelectronic equivalent-circuit model was shown to be very general and applicable to hybrid tandems, and encompassed the operation 3T Si IBC cells. This general model has been distributed to the public in as open-source Python-based software called PVcircuit. We have calculated the implications of these new tandem device designs on the real-world energy production and shown how the relative performance of different tandem configurations is situational and can be engineered using the tools developed here.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Planck intermediate results

We present the NPIPE processing pipeline, which produces calibrated frequency maps in temperature and polarization from data from the Planck Low Frequency Instrument (LFI) and High Frequency Instrument (HFI) using high-performance computers. NPIPE represents a natural evolution of previous Planck analysis efforts, and combines some of the most powerful features of the separate LFI and HFI analysis pipelines. For example, following the LFI 2018 processing procedure, NPIPE uses foreground polarization priors during the calibration stage in order to break scanning-induced degeneracies. Similarly, NPIPE employs the HFI 2018 time-domain processing methodology to correct for bandpass mismatch at all frequencies. In addition, NPIPE introduces several improvements, including, but not limited to: inclusion of the 8% of data collected during repointing manoeuvres; smoothing of the LFI reference load data streams; in-flight estimation of detector polarization parameters; and construction of maximally independent detector-set split maps. For component-separation purposes, important improvements include: maps that retain the CMB Solar dipole, allowing for high-precision relative calibration in higher-level analyses; well-defined single-detector maps, allowing for robust CO extraction; and HFI temperature maps between 217 and 857 GHz that are binned into 0'.9 pixels (Nside = 4096), ensuring that the full angular information in the data is represented in the maps even at the highest Planck resolutions. The net effect of these improvements is lower levels of noise and systematics in both frequency and component maps at essentially all angular scales, as well as notably improved internal consistency between the various frequency channels. Based on the NPIPE maps, we present the first estimate of the Solar dipole determined through component separation across all nine Planck frequencies. The amplitude is (3366.6 ± 2.7) μK, consistent with, albeit slightly higher than, earlier estimates. From the large-scale polarization data, we derive an updated estimate of the optical depth of reionization of τ = 0.051 ± 0.006, which appears robust with respect to data and sky cuts. There are 600 complete signal, noise and systematics simulations of the full-frequency and detector-set maps. As a Planck first, these simulations include full time-domain processing of the beam-convolved CMB anisotropies. The release of NPIPE maps and simulations is accompanied with a complete suite of raw and processed time-ordered data and the software, scripts, auxiliary data, and parameter files needed to improve further on the analysis and to run matching simulations.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗