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NASA NTRS1999

Northern Forest Ecosystem Dynamics Using Coupled Models and Remote Sensing

Forest ecosystem dynamics modeling, remote sensing data analysis, and a geographical information system (GIS) were used together to determine the possible growth and development of a northern forest in Maine, USA. Field measurements and airborne synthetic aperture radar (SAR) data were used to produce maps of forest cover type and above ground biomass. These forest attribute maps, along with a conventional soils map, were used to identify the initial conditions for forest ecosystem model simulations. Using this information along with ecosystem model results enabled the development of predictive maps of forest development. The results obtained were consistent with observed forest conditions and expected successional trajectories. The study demonstrated that ecosystem models might be used in a spatial context when parameterized and used with georeferenced data sets.

Ranson, K. J.↗

NASA NTRS2000

A statistical model of the human core-temperature circadian rhythm

We formulate a statistical model of the human core-temperature circadian rhythm in which the circadian signal is modeled as a van der Pol oscillator, the thermoregulatory response is represented as a first-order autoregressive process, and the evoked effect of activity is modeled with a function specific for each circadian protocol. The new model directly links differential equation-based simulation models and harmonic regression analysis methods and permits statistical analysis of both static and dynamical properties of the circadian pacemaker from experimental data. We estimate the model parameters by using numerically efficient maximum likelihood algorithms and analyze human core-temperature data from forced desynchrony, free-run, and constant-routine protocols. By representing explicitly the dynamical effects of ambient light input to the human circadian pacemaker, the new model can estimate with high precision the correct intrinsic period of this oscillator ( approximately 24 h) from both free-run and forced desynchrony studies. Although the van der Pol model approximates well the dynamical features of the circadian pacemaker, the optimal dynamical model of the human biological clock may have a harmonic structure different from that of the van der Pol oscillator.

NASA Discipline Regulatory Physiology↗

NASA NTRS2003

Three-Dimensional Magnetic Analysis Technique Developed for Evaluating Stirling Convertor Linear Alternators

The Department of Energy, the Stirling Technology Company (STC), and the NASA Glenn Research Center are developing Stirling convertors for Stirling radioisotope generators to provide electrical power for future NASA deep space missions. STC is developing the 55-We technology demonstration convertor (TDC) under contract to the Department of Energy. The Department of Energy recently named Lockheed Martin as the system integration contractor for the Stirling radioisotope generator development project. Lockheed Martin will develop the Stirling radioisotope generator engineering unit and has contract options to develop the qualification unit and the first flight unit. Glenn s role includes an in-house project to provide convertor, component, and materials testing and evaluation in support of the overall power system development. As a part of this work, Glenn has established an in-house Stirling research laboratory for testing, analyzing, and evaluating Stirling machines. STC has built four 55-We convertors for NASA, and these are being tested at Glenn. A cross-sectional view of the 55-We TDC is shown in the figure. Of critical importance to the successful development of the Stirling convertor for space power applications is the development of a lightweight and highly efficient linear alternator. In support, Glenn has been developing finite element analysis and finite element method tools for performing various linear alternator thermal and electromagnetic analyses and evaluating design configurations. A three-dimensional magnetostatic finite element model of STC's 55-We TDC linear alternator was developed to evaluate the demagnetization fields affecting the alternator magnets. Since the actual linear alternator hardware is symmetric to the quarter section about the axis of motion, only a quarter section of the alternator was modeled. The components modeled included the mover laminations, the neodymium-iron-boron magnets, the stator laminations, and the copper coils. The three-dimensional magnetostatic model was then coupled with a circuit simulator model of the alternator load and convertor controller. The coupled model was then used to generate alternator terminal voltage and current predictions. The predicted voltage and current waveforms agreed well with the experimental data, which tended to validate the accuracy of the coupled model. The model was then used to generate predictions of the demagnetization fields acting on the alternator magnets for the alternator under load. The preliminary model predictions indicate that the highest potential for demagnetization is along the inside surface of the uncovered magnets. The demagnetization field for the uncovered magnets when the mover is positioned at the end of a stroke is higher than it is when the mover is at the position of maximum induced voltage or maximum alternator current. Assuming normal load conditions, the model predicted that the onset of demagnetization is most likely to occur for magnet temperatures above 101 C.

Geng, Steven M.↗

NASA NTRS2012

HyDE Framework for Stochastic and Hybrid Model-Based Diagnosis

Hybrid Diagnosis Engine (HyDE) is a general framework for stochastic and hybrid model-based diagnosis that offers flexibility to the diagnosis application designer. The HyDE architecture supports the use of multiple modeling paradigms at the component and system level. Several alternative algorithms are available for the various steps in diagnostic reasoning. This approach is extensible, with support for the addition of new modeling paradigms as well as diagnostic reasoning algorithms for existing or new modeling paradigms. HyDE is a general framework for stochastic hybrid model-based diagnosis of discrete faults; that is, spontaneous changes in operating modes of components. HyDE combines ideas from consistency-based and stochastic approaches to model- based diagnosis using discrete and continuous models to create a flexible and extensible architecture for stochastic and hybrid diagnosis. HyDE supports the use of multiple paradigms and is extensible to support new paradigms. HyDE generates candidate diagnoses and checks them for consistency with the observations. It uses hybrid models built by the users and sensor data from the system to deduce the state of the system over time, including changes in state indicative of faults. At each time step when observations are available, HyDE checks each existing candidate for continued consistency with the new observations. If the candidate is consistent, it continues to remain in the candidate set. If it is not consistent, then the information about the inconsistency is used to generate successor candidates while discarding the candidate that was inconsistent. The models used by HyDE are similar to simulation models. They describe the expected behavior of the system under nominal and fault conditions. The model can be constructed in modular and hierarchical fashion by building component/subsystem models (which may themselves contain component/ subsystem models) and linking them through shared variables/parameters. The component model is expressed as operating modes of the component and conditions for transitions between these various modes. Faults are modeled as transitions whose conditions for transitions are unknown (and have to be inferred through the reasoning process). Finally, the behavior of the components is expressed as a set of variables/ parameters and relations governing the interaction between the variables. The hybrid nature of the systems being modeled is captured by a combination of the above transitional model and behavioral model. Stochasticity is captured as probabilities associated with transitions (indicating the likelihood of that transition being taken), as well as noise on the sensed variables.

Narasimhan, Sriram↗

NASA NTRS2016

Supplement of: The Influence of Volcanic Eruptions on the Climate of Tropical South America During the Last Millennium in an Isotope-Enabled General Circulation Model

Currently, little is known on how volcanic eruptions impact large-scale climate phenomena such as South American paleo-intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) position and summer monsoon behavior. In this paper, an analysis of observations and model simulations is employed to assess the influence of large volcanic eruptions on the climate of tropical South America. This problem is first considered for historically recent volcanic episodes for which more observations are available but where fewer events exist and the confounding effects of El NioSouthern Oscillation (ENSO) lead to inconclusive interpretation of the impact of volcanic eruptions at the continental scale. Therefore, we also examine a greater number of reconstructed volcanic events for the period 850CE to present that are incorporated into the NASA GISS ModelE2-R simulation of the last millennium.An advantage of this model is its ability to explicitly track water isotopologues throughout the hydrologic cycle and simulating the isotopic imprint following a large eruption. This effectively removes a degree of uncertainty associated with error-prone conversion of isotopic signals into climate variables, and allows for a direct comparison between GISS simulations and paleoclimate proxy records.Our analysis reveals that both precipitation and oxygen isotope variability respond with a distinct seasonal and spatial structure across tropical South America following an eruption. During austral winter, the heavy oxygen isotope in precipitation is enriched, likely due to reduced moisture convergence in the ITCZ domain and reduced rainfall over northern South America. During austral summer, however, more negative values of the precipitation isotopic composition are simulated over Amazonia, despite reductions in rainfall, suggesting that the isotopic response is not a simple function of the amount effect. During the South American monsoon season, the amplitude of the temperature response to volcanic forcing is larger than the rather weak and spatially less coherent precipitation signal, complicating the isotopic response to changes in the hydrologic cycle.

Colose, Christopher↗

NASA NTRS2016

Role of Surface Wind and Vegetation Cover in Multi-decadal Variations of Dust Emission in the Sahara and Sahel

North Africa, the world's largest dust source, is non-uniform, consisting of a permanently arid region (Sahara), a semi-arid region (Sahel), and a relatively moist vegetated region (Savanna), each with very different rainfall patterns and surface conditions. This study aims to better understand the controlling factors that determine the variation of dust emission in North Africa over a 27-year period from 1982 to 2008, using observational data and model simulations. The results show that the model-derived Saharan dust emission is only correlated with the 10-m winds (W10m) obtained from reanalysis data, but the model-derived Sahel dust emission is correlated with both W10m and the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) that is obtained from satellite. While the Saharan dust accounts for 82 of the continental North Africa dust emission (1340-1570 Tg year(exp -1) in the 27-year average, the Sahel accounts for 17 with a larger seasonal and inter-annual variation (230-380 Tg year(exp -1), contributing about a quarter of the transatlantic dust transported to the northern part of South America. The decreasing dust emission trend over the 27-year period is highly correlated with W10m over the Sahara (R equals 0.92). Over the Sahel, the dust emission is correlated with W10m (R 0.69) but is also anti-correlated with the trend of NDVI (R equals 0.65). W10m is decreasing over both the Sahara and the Sahel between 1982 and 2008, and the trends are correlated (R equals 0.53), suggesting that Saharan Sahelian surface winds are a coupled system, driving the inter-annual variation of dust emission.

Inter-annual variation↗

NASA NTRS2019

The Ability of GeoCarb to Constrain the Interannual Variability of Carbon Gases over the Amazon

We perform a number of idealized assimilation experiments with the GEOS constituent data assimilation system to test the ability of GeoCarb retrievals of CO, CO2, and CH4 to constrain the interannual variability of these gases over the Amazon. Retrievals for instruments on other satellites which observe in similar channels (e.g. MOPITT, GOSAT, and OCO-2) are limited due to persistent cloud coverage. Given its ability to sample the same location multiple times in one day, the expectation is that GeoCarb retrievals will return more soundings than those from previous missions. The goal of the assimilation experiments is to understand which scanning strategies lead to the best sounding densities and thus have the best chance of constraining interannual variability in the carbon species. The experiments each begin by picking a given year at random from a nature run (i.e., a model simulation meant to represent the truth). The model fields are sampled according to a given strategy and then screened to account for cloud coverage. Next, we pick another year at random and assimilate the synthetic GeoCarb samples into the GEOS model for that year. The output of the assimilation, 6-hourly, 3D fields of each constituent, is then directly comparable to the nature run. This comparison allows us to evaluate the ability of GeoCarb measurements to constrain the interannual variability of each gas.

Weir, B.↗

NASA NTRS2022

Anthropogenic Sulfate Aerosol Pollution in South and East Asia Induces Increased Summer Precipitation Over Arid Central Asia

Precipitation has increased across the arid Central Asia region over recent decades. However, the underlying mechanisms of this trend are poorly understood. Here, we analyze multi-model simulations from the Precipitation Driver and Response Model Intercomparison Project (PDRMIP) to investigate potential drivers of the observed precipitation trend. We find that anthropogenic sulfate aerosols over remote polluted regions in South and East Asia lead to increased summer precipitation, especially convective and extreme precipitation, in arid Central Asia. Elevated concentrations of sulfate aerosols over remote polluted Asia cause an equatorward shift of the Asian Westerly Jet Stream through a fast response to cooling of the local atmosphere at mid-latitudes. This shift favours moisture supply from low-latitudes and moisture flux convergence over arid Central Asia, which is confirmed by a moisture budget analysis. High levels of absorbing black carbon lead to opposing changes in the Asian Westerly Jet Stream and reduced local precipitation, which can mask the impact of sulfate aerosols. This teleconnection between arid Central Asia precipitation and anthropogenic aerosols in remote Asian polluted regions highlights long-range impacts of anthropogenic aerosols on atmospheric circulations and the hydrological cycle.

Atmospheric dynamics↗

NASA NTRS2024

The Changing Influence of Precipitation on Soil Moisture Drought With Warming in the Mediterranean and Western North America

Anthropogenic climate change has already affected drought severity and risk across many regions, and climate models project additional increases in drought risk with future warming. Historically, droughts are typically caused by periods of below-normal precipitation and terminated by average or above-normal precipitation. In many regions, however, soil moisture is projected to decrease primarily through warming-driven increases in evaporative demand, potentially affecting the ability of negative precipitation anomalies to cause drought and positive precipitation anomalies to terminate drought. Here, we use climate model simulations from Phase Six of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) to investigate how different levels of warming (1, 2, and 3°C) affect the influence of precipitation on soil moisture drought in the Mediterranean and Western North America regions. We demonstrate that the same monthly precipitation deficits (25th percentile relative to a preindustrial baseline) at a global warming level of 2°C increase the probability of both surface and rootzone soil moisture drought by 29% in the Mediterranean and 32% and 6% in Western North America compared to the preindustrial baseline. Furthermore, the probability of a dry (25th percentile relative to a preindustrial baseline) surface soil moisture month given a high (75th percentile relative to a preindustrial baseline) precipitation month is 6 (Mediterranean) and 3 (Western North America) times more likely in a 2°C world compared to the preindustrial baseline. For these regions, warming will likely increase the risk of soil moisture drought during low precipitation periods while simultaneously reducing the efficacy of high precipitation periods to terminate droughts.

drought↗

NASA NTRS2024

Movement of Decaying Quasi-2-day Wave in the Austral Summer-time Mesosphere

The Quasi-2-Day Wave (Q2DW) is a large temperature disturbance in the austral summer-time mesosphere. Its decay-phase movement and phase-speed are poorly understood. Q2DW events observed by the Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) onboard the NASA Aura satellite reveal that during the temperature Q2DW’s decay-phase, the Q2DW temperature disturbance is still substantial, but its phase-speed reduces exponentially, on average, from around -70 m/s to -20 13 m/s in around 30-days. Observations also reveal significant interannual variability in these phase-speed values. Q2DW events simulated by the extended Canadian Middle Atmosphere Model (eCMAM) reveal that during the Q2DW decay-phase, the temperature Q2DW phase- speed is strongly correlated with the Summer Mesosphere Easterly Jet (SMEJ) wind values. eCMAM also shows that the phase-speed interannual variabilities partially reflect the interannual variabilities of the SMEJ. Planetary-wave diagnostics indicate that during the Q2DW’s decay phase, there is still an active transfer of momentum from the SMEJ into Q2DW. The model simulations therefore indicate that the SMEJ plays a substantial role in the decaying temperature Q2DW phase-speed variabilities observed by MLS. This adds to our knowledge of how the SMEJ affects the Q2DW.

Cornelius Csar Jude H Salinas↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

In-flight System Identification of the Ingenuity Mars Helicopter

The 68th and 69th flights of NASA’s Ingenuity Mars Helicopter marked the first dedicated system identification flights of an aerial vehicle on another planet. Chirp signals were injected into the swashplate cyclic controls for both legs of the two out-and-back flights. Frequency responses were computed from the flight data, using both the Direct Method (DM) and the Joint-Input-Output (JIO) approach, for the identification of stability and control derivatives in forward flight conditions. The resulting identified state-space models were compared against existing flight dynamics simulation models, showing excellent correlation in the higher frequency range. External disturbances were seen to introduce a bias in the identified lower frequency responses, which was partially mitigated using the JIO method. These findings will inform future modeling and flight testing efforts of Mars rotorcraft.

Ingenuity↗

NASA NTRS1977

Turbulence simulation mechanization for Space Shuttle Orbiter dynamics and control studies

The current version of the NASA turbulent simulation model in the form of a digital computer program, TBMOD, is described. The logic of the program is discussed and all inputs and outputs are defined. An alternate method of shear simulation suitable for incorporation into the model is presented. The simulation is based on a von Karman spectrum and the assumption of isotropy. The resulting spectral density functions for the shear model are included.

Tatom, F. B.↗

NASA NTRS2012

Auto Code Generation for Simulink-Based Attitude Determination Control System

This paper details the work done to auto generate C code from a Simulink-Based Attitude Determination Control System (ADCS) to be used in target platforms. NASA Marshall Engineers have developed an ADCS Simulink simulation to be used as a component for the flight software of a satellite. This generated code can be used for carrying out Hardware in the loop testing of components for a satellite in a convenient manner with easily tunable parameters. Due to the nature of the embedded hardware components such as microcontrollers, this simulation code cannot be used directly, as it is, on the target platform and must first be converted into C code; this process is known as auto code generation. In order to generate C code from this simulation; it must be modified to follow specific standards set in place by the auto code generation process. Some of these modifications include changing certain simulation models into their atomic representations which can bring new complications into the simulation. The execution order of these models can change based on these modifications. Great care must be taken in order to maintain a working simulation that can also be used for auto code generation. After modifying the ADCS simulation for the auto code generation process, it is shown that the difference between the output data of the former and that of the latter is between acceptable bounds. Thus, it can be said that the process is a success since all the output requirements are met. Based on these results, it can be argued that this generated C code can be effectively used by any desired platform as long as it follows the specific memory requirements established in the Simulink Model.

MolinaFraticelli, Jose Carlos↗

NASA NTRS2001

A Regional Model Study of Synoptic Features Over West Africa

Synoptic weather features over West Africa were studied in simulations by the regional simulation model (RM) at the NASA/Goddard Institute for Space Studies. These pioneering simulations represent the beginning of an effort to adapt regional models for weather and climate prediction over West Africa. The RM uses a cartesian grid with 50 km horizontal resolution and fifteen vertical levels. An ensemble of four simulations was forced with lateral boundary conditions from ECMWF global analyses for the period 8-22 August 1988. The simulated mid-tropospheric circulation includes the skillful development and movement of several African wave disturbances. Wavelet analysis of mid-tropospheric winds detected a dominant periodicity of about 4 days and a secondary periodicity of 5-8 days. Spatial distributions of RM precipitation and precipitation time series were validated against daily rain gauge measurements and ISCCP satellite infrared cloud imagery. The time-space distribution of simulated precipitation was made more realistic by combining the ECMWR initial conditions with a 24-hr spin-up of the moisture field and also by damping high frequency gravity waves by dynamic initialization. Model precipitation "forecasts" over the Central Sahel were correlated with observations for about three days, but reinitializing with observed data on day 5 resulted in a dramatic improvement in the precipitation validation over the remaining 9 days. Results imply that information via the lateral boundary conditions is not always sufficient to minimize departures between simulated and actual precipitation patterns for more than several days. In addition, there was some evidence that the new initialization may increase the simulations' sensitivity to the quality of lateral boundary conditions.

Druyan, Leonard M.↗

NASA NTRS2005

Continued Research into Characterizing the Preturbulence Environment for Sensor Development, New Hazard Algorithms and Experimental Flight Planning

The purpose of the research was to develop and test improved hazard algorithms that could result in the development of sensors that are better able to anticipate potentially severe atmospheric turbulence, which affects aircraft safety. The research focused on employing numerical simulation models to develop improved algorithms for the prediction of aviation turbulence. This involved producing both research simulations and real-time simulations of environments predisposed to moderate and severe aviation turbulence. The research resulted in the following fundamental advancements toward the aforementioned goal: 1) very high resolution simulations of turbulent environments indicated how predictive hazard indices could be improved resulting in a candidate hazard index that indicated the potential for improvement over existing operational indices, 2) a real-time turbulence hazard numerical modeling system was improved by correcting deficiencies in its simulation of moist convection and 3) the same real-time predictive system was tested by running the code twice daily and the hazard prediction indices updated and improved. Additionally, a simple validation study was undertaken to determine how well a real time hazard predictive index performed when compared to commercial pilot observations of aviation turbulence. Simple statistical analyses were performed in this validation study indicating potential skill in employing the hazard prediction index to predict regions of varying intensities of aviation turbulence. Data sets from a research numerical model where provided to NASA for use in a large eddy simulation numerical model. A NASA contractor report and several refereed journal articles where prepared and submitted for publication during the course of this research.

Kaplan, Michael L.↗

NASA NTRS2006

PAB3D: Its History in the Use of Turbulence Models in the Simulation of Jet and Nozzle Flows

This is a review paper for PAB3D s history in the implementation of turbulence models for simulating jet and nozzle flows. We describe different turbulence models used in the simulation of subsonic and supersonic jet and nozzle flows. The time-averaged simulations use modified linear or nonlinear two-equation models to account for supersonic flow as well as high temperature mixing. Two multiscale-type turbulence models are used for unsteady flow simulations. These models require modifications to the Reynolds Averaged Navier-Stokes (RANS) equations. The first scheme is a hybrid RANS/LES model utilizing the two-equation (k-epsilon) model with a RANS/LES transition function, dependent on grid spacing and the computed turbulence length scale. The second scheme is a modified version of the partially averaged Navier-Stokes (PANS) formulation. All of these models are implemented in the three-dimensional Navier-Stokes code PAB3D. This paper discusses computational methods, code implementation, computed results for a wide range of nozzle configurations at various operating conditions, and comparisons with available experimental data. Very good agreement is shown between the numerical solutions and available experimental data over a wide range of operating conditions.

Abdol-Hamid, Khaled S.↗

NASA NTRS1984

A dynamic model for plant growth: validation study under changing temperatures

A dynamic simulation model to describe vegetative growth of plants, for which some functions and parameter values have been estimated previously by optimization search techniques and numerical experimentation based on data from constant temperature experiments, is validated under conditions of changing temperatures. To test the predictive capacity of the model, dry matter accumulation in the leaves, stems, and roots of tobacco plants (Nicotiana tabacum L.) was measured at 2- or 3-day intervals during a 5-week period when temperatures in controlled-environment rooms were programmed for changes at weekly and daily intervals and in ascending or descending sequences within a range of 14 to 34 degrees C. Simulations of dry matter accumulation and distribution were carried out using the programmed changes for experimental temperatures and compared with the measured values. The agreement between measured and predicted values was close and indicates that the temperature-dependent functional forms derived from constant-temperature experiments are adequate for modelling plant growth responses to conditions of changing temperatures with switching intervals as short as 1 day.

NASA Discipline Number 60-40↗

NASA NTRS2001

Civil Tiltrotor Feasibility Study for the New York and Washington Terminal Areas

NASA tasked LMI to assess the potential contributions of a yet-undeveloped Civil Tiltrotor aircraft (CTR) in improving capacity in the National Airspace System in all weather conditions. The CTRs studied have assumed operating parameters beyond current CTR capabilities. LMI analyzed CTRs three ways: in fast-time terminal area modeling simulations of New York and Washington to determine delay and throughput impacts; in the Integrated Noise Model, to determine local environmental impact; and with an economic model, to determine the price viability of a CTR. The fast-time models encompassed a 250 nmi range and included traffic interactions from local airports. Both the fast-time simulation and the noise model assessed impacts from traffic levels projected for 1999, 2007, and 2017. Results: CTRs can reduce terminal area delays due to concrete congestion in all time frames. The maximum effect, the ratio of CTRs to jets and turboprop aircraft at a subject airport should be optimized. The economic model considered US traffic only and forecasted CTR sales beginning in 2010.

Stouffer, Virginia↗