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At least 1,387 records · Page 77

Sampling problems: The small scale structure of precipitation

The quantitative measurement of precipitation characteristics for any area on the surface of the Earth is not an easy task. Precipitation is rather variable in both space and time, and the distribution of surface rainfall data given location typically is substantially skewed. There are a number of precipitation process at work in the atmosphere, and few of them are well understood. The formal theory on sampling and estimating precipitation appears considerably deficient. Little systematic attention is given to nonsampling errors that always arise in utilizing any measurement system. Although the precipitation measurement problem is an old one, it continues to be one that is in need of systematic and careful attention. A brief history of the presently competing measurement technologies should aid us in understanding the problem inherent in this measurement task.

Crane, R. K.↗

Biogeochemistry of DMS in Surface Waters

Dimethylsulfide (DMS) is important in influencing the formation of aerosols in the troposphere over large areas of the world's oceans. Understanding the dynamics of aerosols is important to understanding the earth's radiation balance. In evaluating the factors controlling DMS in the troposphere it is vital to understand the dynamics of DMS in the surface ocean. The biogeochemical processes controlling DMS concentration in seawater are myriad; modeling and theoretical estimation are problematic. At the beginning of this project we believed that we were on the verge of simplifying the ship-track measurement of DMS, and we proposed to deploy such a system to develop a database relating high frequency DMS measurements to biological and physicochemical and optical properties of surface water that can be quantified by remote sensing techniques. We designed a system to measure DMS concomitantly with other basic chemical and biological data in a flow-through system. The project was collaborative between Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution (WHOI) and Bermuda Biological Station for Research (BBSR). The project on which we are reporting was budgeted for only one year with a one year no-cost extension. At WHOI our effort was directed towards designing traps which would be used to concentrate DMS from seawater and allow storage for subsequent analysis. At that time, GC systems were too large for easy long-term deployment on a research vessel like R/V Weatherbird, so we focused on simplifying the shipboard sampling procedure. Initial studies of sample recovery with high levels of DMS suggested that Carboxen 1000, a relatively new carbon molecular sieve, could be used as a stable storage medium. The affinity of Carboxen for DMS is several orders of magnitude higher than gold wool (another adsorbent used for DMS collection) on a weight or volume basis. Furthermore, Carboxen's affinity for DMS is also far less susceptible to humidity than gold wool. Unfortunately, further experiments with low level DMS indicated that recovery of DMS after storage was not quantitative. The material has proven to be completely acceptable for short term storage and has been incorporated into a micro-GC system. Since working on this project, we have collaborated with RVM Scientific in Santa Barbara in the design and construction of small portable micro-GC's that will make feasible at-sea measurement in moving ships, making rapid gas analysis and quantification feasible in a ship-track mode. Throughout this period at both WHOI and BBSR, we continued to analyze field data to understand that patterns of time and space variability in DMS and the processes that govern it. These insights will be crucial to determining the specifications for our automated sampling program. The data from this, the longest continuous sampling program for ocean DMS, provided insights into year to year and short-term variability.

Dacey, J. W. H.↗

High Resolution ECG for Evaluation of QT Interval Variability during Exposure to Acute Hypoxia

Ventricular repolarization instability as quantified by the index of QT interval variability (QTVI) is one of the best predictors for risk of malignant ventricular arrhythmias and sudden cardiac death. Because it is difficult to appropriately monitor early signs of organ dysfunction at high altitude, we investigated whether high resolution advanced ECG (HR-ECG) analysis might be helpful as a non-invasive and easy-to-use tool for evaluating the risk of cardiac arrhythmias during exposure to acute hypoxia. 19 non-acclimatized healthy trained alpinists (age 37, 8 plus or minus 4,7 years) participated in the study. Five-minute high-resolution 12-lead electrocardiograms (ECGs) were recorded (Cardiosoft) in each subject at rest in the supine position breathing room air and then after breathing 12.5% oxygen for 30 min. For beat-to-beat RR and QT variability, the program of Starc was utilized to derive standard time domain measures such as root mean square of the successive interval difference (rMSSD) of RRV and QTV, the corrected QT interval (QTc) and the QTVI in lead II. Changes were evaluated with paired-samples t-test with p-values less than 0.05 considered statistically significant. As expected, the RR interval and its variability both decreased with increasing altitude, with p = 0.000 and p = 0.005, respectively. Significant increases were found in both the rMSSDQT and the QTVI in lead II, with p = 0.002 and p = 0.003, respectively. There was no change in QTc interval length (p = non significant). QT variability parameters may be useful for evaluating changes in ventricular repolarization caused by hypoxia. These changes might be driven by increases in sympathetic nervous system activity at ventricular level.

Zupet, P.↗

Mathematical models of continuous flow electrophoresis: Electrophoresis technology

Two aspects of continuous flow electrophoresis were studied: (1) the structure of the flow field in continuous flow devices; and (2) the electrokinetic properties of suspended particles relevant to electrophoretic separations. Mathematical models were developed to describe flow structure and stability, with particular emphasis on effects due to buoyancy. To describe the fractionation of an arbitrary particulate sample by continuous flow electrophoresis, a general mathematical model was constructed. In this model, chamber dimensions, field strength, buffer composition, and other design variables can be altered at will to study their effects on resolution and throughput. All these mathematical models were implemented on a digital computer and the codes are available for general use. Experimental and theoretical work with particulate samples probed how particle mobility is related to buffer composition. It was found that ions on the surface of small particles are mobile, contrary to the widely accepted view. This influences particle mobility and suspension conductivity. A novel technique was used to measure the mobility of particles in concentrated suspensions.

Saville, Dudley A.↗

Data-guided Multi-Map variables for ensemble refinement of molecular movies

Driving molecular dynamics simulations with data-guided collective variables offer a promising strategy to recover thermodynamic information from structure-centric experiments. In this study, the three-dimensional electron density of a protein, as it would be determined by cryo-EM or x-ray crystallography, is used to achieve simultaneously free-energy costs of conformational transitions and refined atomic structures. Unlike previous density-driven molecular dynamics methodologies that determine only the best map-model fits, our work employs the recently developed Multi-Map methodology to monitor concerted movements within equilibrium, non-equilibrium, and enhanced sampling simulations. Construction of all-atom ensembles along the chosen values of the Multi-Map variable enables simultaneous estimation of average properties, as well as real-space refinement of the structures contributing to such averages. Using three proteins of increasing size, we demonstrate that biased simulation along the reaction coordinates derived from electron densities can capture conformational transitions between known intermediates. The simulated pathways appear reversible with minimal hysteresis and require only low-resolution density information to guide the transition. The induced transitions also produce estimates for free energy differences that can be directly compared to experimental observables and population distributions. The refined model quality is superior compared to those found in the Protein Data Bank. We find that the best quantitative agreement with experimental free-energy differences is obtained using medium resolution density information coupled to comparatively large structural transitions. Practical considerations for probing the transitions between multiple intermediate density states are also discussed.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Iodine Waste Form Corrosion: PNNL Summary Testing Report

A test method to correlate the laboratory corrosion behavior of iodine-containing waste forms (IWFs) to a conceptual long-term corrosion models is required. Several candidate methods have been evaluated previously, and each method presents unique challenges and limitations. Dynamic leach tests have emerged as the preferred candidate test method to evaluate IWFs and parameterize an eventual long-term corrosion model. This report was prepared in support of this effort to define the test suite to evaluate the corrosion of IWFs, with the goal of defining and parameterizing a conceptual long-term corrosion model. A review was presented highlighting the high degree of variability between the IWF corrosion data that is available in the literature and the need for a standardized test suite. The targeted test suite is composed of a single interval screening test, a dynamic leach test, and post-test solid characterization of the monolithic IWF samples. The data presented serves two purposes: to expand the range of IWFs evaluated with the test suite to assess method variability and to further understand the corrosion of IWFs to best inform conceptual long-term corrosion model development. A series of IWF types were included in the testing, including hot isostatically pressed Ag-mordenite, silver functionalized silica-based aerogels, iodosodalites (hot isostatic pressing, sintered, glass bonded ceramic), iodoapatite, tellurite glass and glass composite materials.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Miniature Variable Pressure Scanning Electron Microscope for In-Situ Imaging and Chemical Analysis

NASA Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) is leading an effort to develop a Miniaturized Variable Pressure Scanning Electron Microscope (MVP-SEM) for in-situ imaging and chemical analysis of uncoated samples. This instrument development will be geared towards operation on Mars and builds on a previous MSFC design of a mini-SEM for the moon (funded through the NASA Planetary Instrument Definition and Development Program). Because Mars has a dramatically different environment than the moon, modifications to the MSFC lunar mini-SEM are necessary. Mainly, the higher atmospheric pressure calls for the use of an electron gun that can operate at High Vacuum, rather than Ultra-High Vacuum. The presence of a CO2-rich atmosphere also allows for the incorporation of a variable pressure system that enables the in-situ analysis of nonconductive geological specimens. Preliminary testing of Mars meteorites in a commercial Environmental SEM(Tradmark) (FEI) confirms the usefulness of lowcurrent/low-accelerating voltage imaging and highlights the advantages of using the Mars atmosphere for environmental imaging. The unique capabilities of the MVP-SEM make it an ideal tool for pursuing key scientific goals of NASA's Flagship Mission Max-C; to perform in-situ science and collect and cache samples in preparation for sample return from Mars.

Gaskin, Jessica A.↗

RADIAL VELOCITY MONITORING OF KEPLER HEARTBEAT STARS

Heartbeat stars (HB stars) are a class of eccentric binary stars with close periastron passages. The characteristic photometric HB signal evident in their light curves is produced by a combination of tidal distortion, heating, and Doppler boosting near orbital periastron. Many HB stars continue to oscillate after periastron and along the entire orbit, indicative of the tidal excitation of oscillation modes within one or both stars. These systems are among the most eccentric binaries known, and they constitute astrophysical laboratories for the study of tidal effects. We have undertaken a radial velocity (RV) monitoring campaign of Kepler HB stars in order to measure their orbits. We present our first results here, including a sample of 22 Kepler HB systems, where for 19 of them we obtained the Keplerian orbit and for 3 other systems we did not detect a statistically significant RV variability. Results presented here are based on 218 spectra obtained with the Keck/HIRES spectrograph during the 2015 Kepler observing season, and they have allowed us to obtain the largest sample of HB stars with orbits measured using a single instrument, which roughly doubles the number of HB stars with an RV measured orbit. The 19 systems measured here have orbital periods from 7 to 90 days and eccentricities from 0.2 to 0.9. We show that HB stars draw the upper envelope of the eccentricity–period distribution. Therefore, HB stars likely represent a population of stars currently undergoing high eccentricity migration via tidal orbital circularization, and they will allow for new tests of high eccentricity migration theories.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Impact of particle size on distribution and human exposure of flame retardants in indoor dust

Highlights: • Indoor dust from office/public microenvironments/cars were separated into 6 size fractions. • FR distribution was dependent on Kow/dust surface area/TOC/FR migration pathway. • OPFR bioaccessibility was 1.8–82%, bioaccessible PBDEs/NBFRs/DPs were < detection limit. • Human exposure to FR was dependent on dust particle size and bioaccessibility. The effect of dust particle size on the distribution and bioaccessibility of flame retardants (FRs) in indoor dust remains unclear. In this study, we analyzed 20 FRs (including 6 organophosphate flame retardants (OPFRs), 8 polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs), 4 novel brominated flame retardants (NBFRs), and 2 dechlorane plus (DPs)) in composite dust samples from offices, public microenvironments (PME), and cars in Nanjing, China. Each composite sample (one per microenvironment) was separated into 6 size fractions (F1–F6: 200–2000 µm, 150–200 µm, 100–150 µm, 63–100 µm, 43–63 µm, and 9). Bioaccessibility of FRs was measured by the physiologically-based extraction test, with OPFR bioaccessibility being 1.8–82% while bioaccessible PBDEs, NBFRs, and DPs were under detection limits due to their high hydrophobicity. The OPFR bioaccessibility in 200–2000 µm fraction was significantly higher than that of <43 µm fraction, but with no difference among the other four fractions. Risk assessment was performed for the most abundant OPFR-tris(2-chloroethyl) phosphate. The average daily dose (ADD) values were the highest for the <43 µm fraction for all three types of dust using total concentrations, but no consistent trend was found among the three types of dust if based on bioaccessible concentrations. Our results indicated that dust size impacted human exposure estimation of FRs due to their variability in distribution and bioaccessibility among different fractions. For future risk assessment, size selection for dust sampling should be standardized and bioaccessibility of FRs should not be overlooked.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Wildfire Segmentation From Remotely Sensed Data Using Quantum-Compatible Conditional Vector Quantized-Variational Autoencoders

Wildfires represent a critical environmental hazard with multifaceted implications for ecosystems, communities, and public health [1]. The escalating frequency and intensity of wildfires globally have intensified the urgency for robust segmentation methodologies to facilitate effective mitigation, response, and recovery strategies [2]. Accurate wildfire segmentation is pivotal for delineating fire boundaries, assessing progression patterns, and prioritizing resource allocation during emergency scenarios. Furthermore, precise segmentation enables stakeholders, including policymakers, environmental scientists, and emergency responders, to formulate evidence-based strategies, thereby minimizing socio-economic disruptions and ecological degradation. Consequently, advancing wildfire segmentation techniques through innovative technological interventions remains a paramount research imperative. Although foundational in wildfire segmentation, traditional deterministic models exhibit inherent limitations that compromise their efficacy in dynamic and uncertain environments. These models often operate on rigid algorithms prioritizing deterministic classifications, thereby overlooking the inherent complexities and uncertainties associated with wildfire behavior and satellite data variability. Such deterministic frameworks tend to produce oversimplified representations that fail to capture the intricate nuances of evolving fire dynamics, spatial heterogeneity, and environmental interactions [1]. Consequently, the deterministic approach’s propensity for uncertainty collapsing [1, 3] hampers the accuracy, reliability, and applicability of segmentation outcomes in real-world scenarios. Contrastingly, stochastic models offer a more nuanced and adaptable framework for wildfire segmentation. By integrating probabilistic elements into the modeling paradigm, stochastic approaches, particularly probabilistic approaches such as variational auto encoders (VAEs) [4], facilitate comprehensive uncertainty assessment, enabling researchers to quantify and incorporate uncertainties into segmentation outcomes effectively. This probabilistic nature empowers stochastic models to encapsulate variability, account for data inconsistencies, and adapt to evolving environmental conditions, enhancing segmentation accuracy, reliability, and robustness. Embracing stochastic methodologies thus catalyzes advancements in wildfire science by fostering a more holistic, adaptive, and resilient segmentation framework. Despite VAEs demonstrating significant promise in various applications, they come with inherent limitations that have garnered attention within the machine learning community. One of the primary drawbacks lies in their reliance on static priors, which essentially assume a fixed distribution for latent variables, thereby limiting the model’s flexibility to capture complex data structures effectively [5]. This static nature leads to suboptimal representations, especially when dealing with complex and high-dimensional data. Additionally, VAEs often struggle with generating sharp and realistic samples, a phenomenon commonly referred to as mode collapse [5, 7, 6]. Furthermore, the optimization process in VAEs, which involves balancing the reconstruction loss and the regularization term, can sometimes be challenging to fine-tune [7]. In recent efforts to address these shortcomings, alternative approaches like Vector Quantized Variational Auto encoders(VQ-VAEs) [7], address the challenges by incorporating discrete latent variables and leveraging techniques that enhance the quality and diversity of generated samples while maintaining efficient training dynamics. VQ-VAEs propose a dynamic prior distribution generation mechanism that diverges from the static priors commonly associated with traditional VAEs. This dynamic approach allows for more adaptive and context-aware latent variable representations, thereby potentially capturing complex data structures more effectively. Unlike autoregressive prior models such as PixelCNN, which, despite their ability to model dependencies across data dimensions, suffer from significant computational inefficiencies and lack flexibility in handling diverse datasets. In our work, we propose to use a generative quantum-compatible approach to help alleviate the shortcomings of autoregressive prior model in VQ-VAEs. Restricted Boltzmann Machines (RBMs) are a viable alternative prior model that can learn prior distributions in a faster and more flexible manner. In this research endeavor, we meticulously curate a state-of-the-art dataset leveraging satellite MODIS data in conjunction with VIIRS fire masks, derived from Fire Radiative Power (FRP), thereby encapsulating diverse wildfire scenarios and environmental contexts. We developed a conditional VQ-VAE architecture with the RBM prior model that is trained in a supervised manner for segmenting wildfire masks. This innovative approach synergistically harnesses deep learning capabilities, enabling the generation of segmentation maps characterized by heightened precision, granularity, and contextual relevance. Furthermore, replacing the autoregressive prior learning method proposed by the original VQ-VAE with a prior density approximation via quantum-compatible RBM facilitates expedited inference processes, augments flexibility in prior sampling, optimizes computational efficiency and establishes a groundbreaking benchmark in wildfire segmentation methodologies.

quantum machine learning↗

Diagnostic assessment of reservoir response to fracturing: a case study from Hydraulic Fracturing Test Site (HFTS) in Midland Basin

Abstract This paper outlines a data collection and diagnostics case study involving multiple horizontal shale wells. We look at well production profiles using rate transient analysis, differences in near wellbore complexity, geologic variations within the area of interest, as well as compositional differences in the rocks based on cores obtained from within the stimulated reservoir. The Hydraulic Fracturing Test Site is a multi-well experiment involving stimulation of unconventional shale wells in the southeastern Midland portion of the Permian Basin. The targeted formations include both the upper as well as the middle Wolfcamp formations, also referred alternatively as Wolfcamp A and Wolfcamp B. Data integration and analysis shared in this paper help us understand the various geologic controls impacting well productivity, particularly the wide variance observed between the Wolfcamp A and Wolfcamp B formations. Rate transient analysis indicates similar system permeabilities for stimulated wells. However, we observe higher effective fracture half-lengths for upper Wolfcamp wells. Using observations from 3D seismic interpretations (such as pad scale faults) as well as petrophysical and image log data, we highlight the substantial differences in stimulation as we move along the well laterals from the heel toward the toe sections. These differences are further reconciled with observations from zones with high data density at the core locations through stimulated rock, as well as independent data such as microseismic emissions. At the test site, Wolfcamp A was found to be relatively quartz rich with significant heterogeneity whereas Wolfcamp B is richer in clay and organic content. This impacts the geomechanical characteristics of the rock mass with much higher natural fracture density in the shallower interval. Thus, the fracture growth is more uniform in the deeper interval and more heterogeneous with branching likely in upper interval. Increased complexity also leads to consistently better productivity from the wells in the shallower interval as demonstrated from RTA results. This case study is unique because it provides valuable insights from actual sampling of the stimulated zones in hydraulically fractured wells and helps understand impact of various factors that contribute toward variability in well production. The findings from this study provides insights into need for optimization of completion designs in the various Wolfcamp landing zones, such as optimization of cluster or fracture spacing in various Wolfcamp intervals. In addition, it provides a useful template for data collection and research direction in future field test sites of similar nature in unconventional reservoirs.

Energy & Fuels↗

The engineered single guide RNA structure as a biomarker for gene-editing reagent exposure

Abstract CRISPR arrays and CRISPR-associated (Cas) proteins comprise a prevalent adaptive immune system in bacteria and archaea. These systems defend against exogenous parasitic mobile genetic elements. The adaption of single effector CRISPR-Cas systems has massively facilitated gene-editing due to the reprogrammable guide RNA. The guide RNA affords little priming space for conventional PCR-based nucleic acid tests without foreknowledge of the spacer sequence. Further impeding detection of gene-editor exposure, these systems are derived from human microflora and pathogens ( Staphylococcus pyogenes , Streptococcus aureus , etc.) that contaminate human patient samples. The single guide RNA—formed from the CRISPR RNA (crRNA) and transactivating RNA (tracrRNA)—harbors a variable tetraloop sequence between the two RNA segments, complicating PCR assays. Identical single effector Cas proteins are used for gene-editing and naturally by bacteria. Antibodies raised against these Cas proteins are unable to distinguish CRISPR-Cas gene-editors from bacterial contaminant. To overcome the high potential for false positives, we have developed a DNA displacement assay to specifically detect gene-editors. We leveraged the single guide RNA structure as an engineered moiety for gene-editor exposure that does not cross-react with bacterial CRISPRs. Our assay has been validated for five common CRISPR systems and functions in complex sample matrices.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

D/H ratios and H2O contents of mantle-derived amphibole megacrysts from Dish Hill, California

D/H ratios are, in principle, useful in characterizing reservoirs of mantle hydrogen and as tracers of volatile transfer processes in Earth's interior. In practice, however, interpretation of isotopic measurements on mantle derived H is complicated by surface processes such as contamination and degassing which may alter the primary D/H ratio. Although there are indications that water associated with subduction zones and certain chemically enriched basalts is enriched in D relative to 'typical' upper mantle water, the extent of isotopic heterogeneity of mantle H remains uncertain. Kaersutitic amphibole megacrysts in alkaline basalts are one of the most widespread sources of mantle water and are therefore potentially useful for large-scale regional studies of D/H variation. However, D/H ratios of these amphiboles vary widely (from plus 8 to minus 113 percent), even in samples from the same locality, so that this potential has yet to be realized. In order to investigate the origin of this variability, and to explore the possibility that primary mantle D/H ratios may be deduced from these amphiboles, we analyzed the D/H ratios and chemical compositions of a suite of 17 kaersutitic amphiboles from Dish Hill, California. This work contrasts with previous studies in which sampling is widespread, but representatives from any given locality are few. Samples were collected from a restricted area on the southern flank of the volcanic center and are associated with the basal volcanic breccia. Fourteen of the samples were large single crystals or crystal fragments (megacrysts, 0.4 to 30 grams), believed to derive from pegmatitic veins crystallized from melts in the mantle. Two were coarse-grained intergrowths of amphibole with olivine and spinel, and one was a thin (2 mm) selvage on a peridotite xenolith.

Bell, David R.↗

Efficient surrogate modeling methods for large-scale Earth system models based on machine-learning techniques

Abstract. Improving predictive understanding of Earth system variability and change requires data–model integration. Efficient data–model integration for complex models requires surrogate modeling to reduce model evaluation time. However, building a surrogate of a large-scale Earth system model (ESM) with many output variables is computationally intensive because it involves a large number of expensive ESM simulations. In this effort, we propose an efficient surrogate method capable of using a few ESM runs to build an accurate and fast-to-evaluate surrogate system of model outputs over large spatial and temporal domains. We first use singular value decomposition to reduce the output dimensions and then use Bayesian optimization techniques to generate an accurate neural network surrogate model based on limited ESM simulation samples. Our machine-learning-based surrogate methods can build and evaluate a large surrogate system of many variables quickly. Thus, whenever the quantities of interest change, such as a different objective function, a new site, and a longer simulation time, we can simply extract the information of interest from the surrogate system without rebuilding new surrogates, which significantly reduces computational efforts. We apply the proposed method to a regional ecosystem model to approximate the relationship between eight model parameters and 42 660 carbon flux outputs. Results indicate that using only 20 model simulations, we can build an accurate surrogate system of the 42 660 variables, wherein the consistency between the surrogate prediction and actual model simulation is 0.93 and the mean squared error is 0.02. This highly accurate and fast-to-evaluate surrogate system will greatly enhance the computational efficiency of data–model integration to improve predictions and advance our understanding of the Earth system.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Synthesis route attribution of sulfur mustard by multivariate data analysis of chemical signatures

A multivariate model was developed here to attribute samples to a synthetic method used in the production of sulfur mustard (HD). Eleven synthetic methods were used to produce 66 samples for model construction. Three chemists working in both participating laboratories took part in the production, with the aim to introduce variability while reducing the influence of laboratory or chemist specific impurities in multivariate analysis. A gas chromatographic/mass spectrometric data set of peak areas for 103 compounds was subjected to orthogonal partial least squares - discriminant analysis to extract chemical attribution signature profiles and to construct multivariate models for classification of samples. For one- and two-step routes, model quality allowed the classification of an external test set (16/16 samples) according to synthesis conditions in the reaction yielding sulfur mustard. Classification of samples according to first-step methodology was considerably more difficult, given the high purity and uniform quality of the intermediate thiodiglycol produced in the study. Model performance in classification of aged samples was also investigated.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Stochastic modeling and statistical calibration with model error and scarce data

This paper introduces a procedure to assess the predictive accuracy of stochastic models subject to model error and sparse data. Model error is introduced as uncertainty on the coefficients of appropriate polynomial chaos expansions (PCE). The error associated with finite sample size allows us to conceive of these coefficients as statistics of the data that we describe as random variables whose influence on output quantities of interest is evaluated through the extended polynomial chaos expansion (EPCE). A Bayesian data assimilation scheme is introduced to update these expansions by considering the resulting nested chaos expansion as a hierarchical probabilistic model. Stochastic models of quantities of interest (QoI) are thus constructed and efficiently evaluated. Here, the Metropolis–Hastings Markov chain Monte Carlo procedure is used to sample the posterior. Two illustrative analytical and numerical problems are used to demonstrate the proposed approach.

Bayesian inference↗

Technique for measuring high-temperature thermal conductivity of solids by the use of a heat pipe.

A suggested technique for accurately measuring thermal conductivity of solids in the temperature range 800-1500 C is presented. The procedure employs the sample to be tested in series combination with a high-temperature heat pipe and a heat-transfer device, which has a variable thermal conductance. By changing the thermal conductance of the heat-transfer unit and measuring the change in heat-pipe power input to maintain a constant heat-pipe temperature, one can accurately measure the heat flux through the sample in conjunction with the temperature drop across it. This steady-state technique has some inherent advantages over methods currently employed to measure thermal conductivity at elevated temperatures.

Forman, R.↗

Analysis of long term heart rate variability: methods, 1/f scaling and implications

The use of spectral techniques to quantify short term heart rate fluctuations on the order of seconds to minutes has helped define the autonomic contributions to beat-to-beat control of heart rate. We used similar techniques to quantify the entire spectrum (0.00003-1.0 Hz) of heart rate variability during 24 hour ambulatory ECG monitoring. The ECG from standard Holter monitor recordings from normal subjects was sampled with the use of a phase locked loop, and a heart rate time series was constructed at 3 Hz. Frequency analysis of the heart rate signal was performed after a nonlinear filtering algorithm was used to eliminate artifacts. A power spectrum of the entire 24 hour record revealed power that was inversely proportional to frequency, 1/f, over 4 decades from 0.00003 to 0.1 Hz (period approximately 10 hours to 10 seconds). Displaying consecutive spectra calculated at 5 minute intervals revealed marked variability in the peaks at all frequencies throughout the 24 hours, probably accounting for the lack of distinct peaks in the spectra of the entire records.

Non-NASA Center↗