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At least 1,387 records · Page 77

GCAM v4.3 SSP-RCP-GCM Output Products

Supplemental dataset to: Graham N.T., M.I. Hejazi, M. Chen, E. Davies, J.A. Edmonds, S.H. Kim, and S. Turner, et al. 2020. "Humans drive future water scarcity changes across all Shared Socioeconomic Pathways." Environmental Research Letters 15, no. 1:Article No. 014007. PNNL-SA-151297. doi:10.1088/1748-9326/ab639b This analysis makes deterministic classifications of how, when water resources are limited and constrained, the human and climate systems interact. The relative effects of both systems on water scarcity are quantified at global and basin scales across 15 global futures that include five different socioeconomic conditions (the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways, SSPs) and four different climatic conditions (the Representative Concentration Pathways, RCPs). These 15 scenarios are used to first analyze a 'Human Alone' component by isolating the human impact on future scarcity. This is accomplished by holding all climate variables to their 2005 levels while altering socioeconomic growth and technological change. General circulation model (GCM) derived climate impacts for five models are applied to establish 75 'Human and Climate' scenarios which allows for the quantification of climate impacts. Climatic impacts to water supply, agricultural productivity and change, hydropower availability, and building energy demands are applied from 5 different bias-corrected GCMs to make a suite of 75 climate runs. By subtracting the human derived impacts from the 'Human Alone' scenarios, from the 'Human and Climate' scenarios the climate impact is isolated. First, the drivers of future water scarcity are evaluated by isolating the impacts that both humans and climate have while accounting for feedbacks between humans, energy, and land. Secondly, the simultaneous impacts that human and climate systems have on water scarcity are analyzed by determining whether each system is increasing or decreasing scarcity in all global water basins. Below we describe the GCAM model, the scenario components, climate derived impacts, and the calculations of scarcity changes and attribution. This study uses the global change assessment model (GCAM), with inclusions of water constraints to both renewable and nonrenewable sources of water, to investigate the relative contributions of climate and human systems on water scarcity regionally and globally under a wide range of scenarios. GCAM links socioeconomics, the energy system, land-use change, climate, and the water sector. GCAM is a market-equilibrium model that allows for prices to be adjusted within each time step to ensure that the supply and demand of goods and services remains equilibrated at each time step allowing for simultaneous market clearing across sectors. This study accounts for a limited supply of water by employing cost resource curves across all 235 basins that follow a logit formulation to determine the share of each water source (renewable surface water, nonrenewable groundwater, and desalinated water) needed to meet the water demands within all basins. As depletion of various water sources increases the extraction price increases, which leads to compounding price increases on the goods and services that require higher-priced water sources.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

U.S. Wind and Solar PV Supply Curves with Future Land-use Change

This dataset provides future supply curves representing the total resource potential for land-based wind and solar photovoltaic (PV) deployment in the conterminous United States after accounting for the impact of land-use and land-cover change (LULC). We use LULC projections from 2010 to 2050 developed based on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Emission Scenarios. The LULC projections are subsequently fed into the renewable energy potential model (reV), which estimates total available wind and solar capacity after excluding non-developable land. Supply curves are provided for four IPCC scenarios in 2050: A1B, A2, B1, and B2. As a baseline, we also provide the supply curve from the B2 scenario in 2010. In addition to the supply curves, we also provide representative wind and solar generation profiles for each supply curve point. These generation profiles are provided as capacity factors and are based on a 2012 weather year using NSRDB and WindToolkit resource data. For more details on the supply curve and profile datasets included here please refer to README. Additional information on the supply curves and the LULC projections used to generate them, as well as an analysis of their impact on wind and solar deployment under decarbonization can be found in the publication linked below: "U.S. Wind and Solar PV Supply Curves with Future Land-use Change Publication".

Array↗

Data for Greenhouse Gas Accounting Procedures in Low Carbon Fuel Policies Overlook the Spatial Variability of Miscanthus-Derived Sustainable Aviation Fuel

Low carbon fuel policies such as the U.S. Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS), Canada Clean Fuel Regulations (CFR), and California Low Carbon Fuel Standard (LCFS) as well as the 45Z tax credit are intended to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from transportation. Cellulosic feedstocks, optimized biorefineries, and favorable farming locations can significantly reduce biofuel carbon intensity (CI). Despite advances in field-to-fuel GHG monitoring and flexibility in resource allocation within biorefineries (e.g., governing net electricity production), rigid CI accounting procedures in current policies may limit CI responsiveness across candidate sites and processing facilities. This work examines a hypothetical biomass-to-sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) pathway using miscanthus and alcohol-to-jet (i) to demonstrate how GHG accounting requirements drive estimates of biofuel CIs and (ii) to explore potential CI and financial implications of scenario-specific life cycle assessment (LCA). Results demonstrate that GHG accounting using the CFR/LCFS can reasonably account for distinct levels of net electricity production by a biorefinery, but only the CFR yields similar CI sensitivity to spatially explicit factors (feedstock CI, grid electricity CI) as scenario-specific LCA: most GHG accounting frameworks do not capture CI variation across candidate sites in the United States. Ultimately, this work demonstrates the importance of LCA methodological specifications in low carbon fuel policies and tax credits.

Miscanthus↗

A sequential Attacker-Defender game for distribution systems resilience enhancement against extreme weather events

Improving distribution system resilience against frequent extreme weather events is important for reliable power system operations. Especially when dealing with events such as hurricanes that have short-term predictions, proactive pre-event preparedness plays a vital role in system resilience performance. In this paper, we propose a novel approach to construct pre-event resource allocation plans for system operators to cope with upcoming threats through a sequential attacker-defender game framework. The sequential attacker-defender game is designed to model the interaction between the extreme weather and the system operator. In each round of the game, the attacker and the defender sequentially update their current strategies by accounting for the opponent’s action set. The attacker model is formulated as a bi-level problem to identify the severe outage scenarios, and the defender model is formulated as a two-stage optimization problem to determine the allocation of restoration resources including mobile responsive resources and repair crews. Two scale-reduction strategies are proposed to ensure the scalability of the game scheme. Finally, case studies on the IEEE 33-bus and a 7149-node practical utility system validate the effectiveness of the proposed sequential game and the efficiency of the scale-reduction strategies.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Multicaloric Cryocooling Using Heavy Rare-Earth Free La(Fe,Si) 13 -Based Compounds

The transition toward a carbon-neutral society based on renewable energies goes hand in hand with the availability of energy-efficient technologies. Here, magnetocaloric cooling is a very promising refrigeration technology to fulfill this role regarding cryogenic gas liquefaction. However, the current reliance on highly resource critical, heavy rare-earth-based compounds as magnetocaloric material makes global usage unsustainable. Here, we aim to mitigate this limitation through the utilization of a multicaloric cooling concept, which uses the external stimuli of isotropic pressure and magnetic field to tailor and induce magnetostructural phase transitions associated with large caloric effects. In this study, La 0.7 Ce 0.3 Fe 11.6 Si 1.4 is used as a nontoxic, low-cost, low-criticality multiferroic material to explore the potential, challenges, and peculiarities of multicaloric cryocooling, achieving maximum isothermal entropy changes up to −28 J (kg K) −1 in the temperature range from 190 K down to 30 K. Thus, the multicaloric cooling approach offers an additional degree of freedom to tailor the phase transition properties and may lead to energy-efficient and environmentally friendly gas liquefaction based on designed-for-purpose, noncritical multiferroic materials.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Sizing Small-Scale Renewable Energy Systems for the Navajo Nation and Rural Communities

The Navajo Nation consists of about 55,000 residential homes spread across 27,000 square miles of trust land in the Southwest region of the United States. The Navajo Tribal Utility Authority (NTUA) reports that approximately 15,000 homes on the reservation do not have electricity due to the high costs of connecting rural homes located miles from utility distribution lines. In order to get these rural homeowners access electricity, NTUA and other Native owned companies are examining small-scale renewable energy systems to provide power for necessary usage such as lighting and refrigeration. The goal of this study is to evaluate the current renewable deployment efforts and provide additional considerations for photovoltaic (PV) systems that will optimize performance and improve efficiency to reduce costs. There are three case studies presented in different locations on the Navajo Nation with varying solar resource and energy load requirements. For each location, an assessment is completed that includes environmental parameters of the site- specific landscape and a system performance analysis of an off-grid residential PV system. The technical process, repeated for each location, demonstrates how the variance and uniqueness of each household can impact the system requirements after optimizations are applied. Therefore, the household variabilities and difference in locations must be considered. The differing results of each case study suggests additional analysis is needed for designing small-scale PV systems that takes a home-land-family specific approach to allow for better efficiency and more flexibility for future solar innovations to be considered for overall cost reductions.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Education, Training and Career Pathway Opportunities for Buildings Energy Efficiency Programs Within the Corps Network

The Corps Network (TCN) is a national association that represents more than 150 local organizations around the country that work to provide job training and employment to individuals working on projects that provide community benefits. Through its partnership in the Better Buildings Workforce Accelerator, TCN requested technical assistance from the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) to support Corps organizations involved in – or interested in developing – programs related to energy efficiency in buildings. The goal of this project is to provide industry-recognized energy efficiency education/training models and resources that can be tailored and replicated by Corps across the country, and which can best prepare Corpsmembers to enter the energy efficiency workforce when they complete their terms of service.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Robust Scheduling of Networked Microgrids for Economics and Resilience Improvement

The benefits of networked microgrids in terms of economics and resilience are investigated and validated in this work. Considering the stochastic unintentional islanding conditions and conventional forecast errors of both renewable generation and loads, a two-stage adaptive robust optimization is proposed to minimize the total operating cost of networked microgrids in the worst scenario of the modeled uncertainties. By coordinating the dispatch of distributed energy resources (DERs) and responsive demand among networked microgrids, the total operating cost is minimized, which includes the start-up and shut-down cost of distributed generators (DGs), the operation and maintenance (O&M) cost of DGs, the cost of buying/selling power from/to the utility grid, the degradation cost of energy storage systems (ESSs), and the cost associated with load shedding. The proposed optimization is solved with the column and constraint generation (C&CG) algorithm. The results of case studies demonstrate the advantages of networked microgrids over independent microgrids in terms of reducing total operating cost and improving the resilience of power supply.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Advancing Understanding of Geothermal Representation in the Power Sector to Accelerate Deployment

Driven mostly by decarbonization goals, geothermal interest in the US power sector has grown considerably, gradually evolving from being considered a niche technology, to being recognized as a viable source of clean, baseload, grid-balancing power, and renewable electric power generation. Furthermore, recent technical advances that could greatly accelerate deployment in the near future, and US federal incentives for low-carbon generation technologies, including geothermal, can enable opportunities for integrating geothermal into utilities resource planning portfolios. However, in general, utilities do not have in-house expertise to evaluate geothermal technologies and its potential role in helping decarbonize the grid as well as help them achieve their individual decarbonization goals. To date, geothermal is rarely included in Capacity Expansion Models (CEM) which utilities use in their planning activities and resource/technologies prioritization. To this end, EPRI and NREL are working together in a DOE-GTO funded research project to improve geothermal understanding (opportunities, value, risks) among the power industry to help accelerate geothermal deployment. In the present paper we describe the approach and preliminary findings of this work, focused on two topics: 1) Expand the degree of understanding on the value, opportunity, and risk of geothermal technologies among utilities and related companies/groups, specifically around geothermal for power generation. 2) Improve representation of geothermal power technologies in capacity expansion models (CEM).

capacity expansion models↗

A Review of Distributed Secondary Control Architectures in Islanded-Inverter-Based Microgrids

The increasing energy demand, the shortage of energy resources, and the environmental challenges faced by conventional power-generation systems are some of the ongoing challenges faced by modern power systems. Therefore, many efforts have been made by the scientific community to develop comprehensive solutions to overcome these issues. For instance, current technological advances have allowed the integration of distributed generators into the power systems, promoting the use of microgrids to overcome these issues. However, the use of renewable distributed generators have introduced new challenges to the traditional control system schemes. To overcome these challenges, a hierarchical control approach has been proposed for distributed renewable sources. In other words, the control scheme have been divided into three hierarchical levels, primary, secondary, and tertiary, to overcome the new challenges present in modern power systems. Due to extensiveness of this topic, this overview is focused on secondary control systems, mainly for AC isolated microgrids. To improve the power quality of modern systems, several secondary control schemes have been proposed to overcome the well-known problem of frequency and voltage deviation. Some of these schemes have also introduced adequate active/reactive power sharing techniques to optimize the utilization of resources. Additionally, other secondary control schemes have also focused on reducing the communication load, to lower the network cost and adding robustness against communication problems. This article presents an insight of the different control techniques used to overcome power quality and communication problems. A comprehensive overview of distributed secondary control techniques for islanded microgrids is presented. In addition, the implementation of these techniques is explained in an orderly and sequential manner.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

The Los Angeles 100% Renewable Energy Study (LA100): Chapter 7. Distribution System Analysis

The City of Los Angeles has set ambitious goals to transform its electricity supply, aiming to achieve a 100% renewable energy power system by 2045, along with aggressive electrification targets for buildings and vehicles. To reach these goals, and assess the implications for jobs, electricity rates, the environment, and environmental justice, the Los Angeles City Council passed a series of motions directing the Los Angeles Department of Water and Power (LADWP) to determine the technical feasibility and investment pathways of a 100% renewable energy portfolio standard. The Los Angeles 100% Renewable Energy Study (LA100) is a first-of-its-kind objective, rigorous, and science-based power systems analysis to determine what investments could be made to achieve these goals. The LA100 final report is presented as a collection of 12 chapters and an executive summary, each of which is available as an individual download. This chapter summarizes the growth in distribution-connected energy resources and provides a detailed review of impacts to the distribution grid of growth in customer electricity demand, solar, and storage, as well as required distribution grid upgrades and associated costs.

100% Renewable↗

Modeling and Automation Framework for High IBR Integration in Large-Scale Power Systems

The increasing prevalence of power electronics- interfaced renewable generation sources is leading to a gradual replacement of traditional thermal generation-based synchronous machines. In this context, the modeling of a large-scale power grid that incorporates a significant number of inverter-based resources is crucial for understanding the dynamics and effects of these resources on the power system. This study investigates the positive sequence model of grid-following and grid-forming inverters. Additionally, this work explores the integration of distributed energy resources using population as an indicator of their relative geographic locations. To address challenge to integrate these inverter based resources into a realistic grid of the US Western interconnection, automation scripts are developed to streamline the process of replacing conventional generators with grid-following and grid-forming inverters, as well as allocating distributed energy resources. Different penetration levels of these inverters are considered, and their frequency regulation support following a disturbance is compared through dynamic simulations.

Lyu, Xue↗

Colorado Alternatively Powered Aircraft Airport Infrastructure Study

Advanced Air Mobility encompasses emerging technologies in propulsion of general aviation and commuter aircraft for the purpose of moving passengers and goods. The State of Colorado has a strong aerospace and aviation legacy, and this research explores the potential energy implications of a transition from traditional aircraft propulsion systems to more-electric, full electric and hydrogen powered aircraft in flight schools, and small community air service utilizing NASA's Regional Air Mobility Model. Effort includes identifying potential energy needs and cost-effective solutions to support those emerging needs analyzing potential benefits on on-site generation and storage to optimize energy systems.Advanced Air Mobility encompasses emerging technologies in propulsion of general aviation and commuter aircraft for the purpose of moving passengers and goods. The State of Colorado has a strong aerospace and aviation legacy, and this research explores the potential energy implications of a transition from traditional aircraft propulsion systems to more-electric, full electric and hydrogen powered aircraft in flight schools, and small community air service utilizing NASA's Regional Air Mobility Model. Effort includes identifying potential energy needs and cost-effective solutions to support those emerging needs analyzing potential benefits on on-site generation and storage to optimize energy systems.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

Beneficial CHP – Is that a Thing? Considering CHP in the Context of Beneficial Electrification

For decades, combined heat and power (CHP) has been promoted and embraced as a cost-effective technology for meeting on-site thermal and electric needs more efficiently and with fewer emissions than separate procurement of those resources. But climate change concerns are leading to a reevaluation of CHP’s benefits. Significantly, natural gas, the most common fuel for CHP and until recently regarded as an environmentally preferable “bridge fuel” in the energy transition to renewables, is increasingly being reexamined amid calls for deep decarbonization and emerging clean energy policies that limit the use of natural gas. Given this trend, electrification has gained traction as a net zero carbon energy strategy. With natural gas being a preferred fuel for CHP, policymakers and others are beginning to question CHP’s role in a cleaner, more electrified future. However, CHP fueled by low carbon fuels such as renewable natural gas and hydrogen may be a more viable path to decarbonizing industrial processes that are difficult to electrify due to technology limitations or cost, and for applications where energy resilience is a critical requirement. This paper seeks to add clarity to a complex issue. It offers a framework for assessing industrial applications where natural gas CHP will provide significant GHG reductions in the near term and provide a more economic and practical path to deep decarbonization in the long term through a transition to low carbon fuels.

Hedman, Bruce↗

NREL Helps Hydropower Projects Navigate Complex Regulatory Currents

Hydropower accounts for about 37% of U.S. renewable electricity generation. But before industry members can license and construct new projects or relicense existing projects, they must navigate complex approvals from federal, state, and tribal authorities. These regulations provide critical protections for water quality, species, cultural resources, and recreation, but they can also increase the costs, risks, and uncertainties to license or relicense projects.

HYDRO ENERGY↗

Data-Driven Mean-Corrected Recursive Estimation-Based Optimal DER Dispatch for Distribution System Voltage Control

Recent advances in smart inverters offer opportunities to mitigate adverse grid impacts caused by high penetrations of distributed photovoltaics (PV) in distribution grids, such as voltage violations. Here, this paper proposes a novel measurement-driven optimal power flow (OPF)-based distributed energy resource management system (DERMS) voltage regulation via recursive sensitivity estimation informed coordinated control of distributed PV inverters. The proposed approach leverages available grid and controllable DER measurements, eliminating reliance on system model information while being adaptive and robust to volatile operating conditions. A mean-corrected recursive ridge regression (MCRRR) algorithm is proposed for sensitivity estimation, continuously refining the sensitivity model through a closed-form solution. It effectively manages varying grid operating conditions, such as changes in power injections and topology reconfiguration, to facilitate a time-varying update of the Load Sensitivity Factors (LSF). The proposed approach is formulated as a linear programming (LP) problem and is thus scalable to larger-scale distribution systems. Its effectiveness and efficiency are demonstrated on a realistic distribution feeder with high PV penetrations in Southern California, USA.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Hydropower Value Drivers

Conventional hydro resources generate the majority of their value by providing energy under most conditions, but the relative fraction of value generated by providing ancillary services and capacity increases with increasing penetration of resources with zero fuel costs. Pumped storage hydropower resources generate the majority of their value by providing capacity under most conditions, but the relative fraction of value generated by providing energy increases with increasing penetration of resources with zero fuel costs. The total value of conventional hydropower generally decreases in systems with increasing penetration of resources with zero fuel costs; this is largely due to the associated decrease in average energy prices. The total value of pumped storage generally increases in systems with increasing penetration of resources with zero fuel costs, largely due to opportunities to operate in pumping mode when energy prices are low or even negative. Energy storage representation must be enhanced to ensure that models accurately capture system value streams for these resources. Current power system models have a limited ability to capture the price dynamics of ancillary services, and it is still challenging to assess the role and magnitude of ancillary service value streams in future systems. Power systems are currently in a state of rapid and dramatic evolution due to a number of different factors, including the increasing penetration of variable renewable energy (VRE) sources, such as wind and solar, and battery energy storage systems (BESS). This evolution will change the way power systems are fundamentally planned and operated. Some of these changes may be incremental, while others may be more significant, but the result will likely be parallel evolution in the definition and requirement of different grid services and therefore a subsequent shift in their relative values. This report presents a framework developed to identify such system value drivers and quantify their relative impact on several different value streams, with a specific focus on implications for conventional hydropower and pumped storage hydropower (PSH) resources. This value drivers framework (VDF) encompasses five core analytical steps: 1. Identify potential drivers and develop scenarios, 2. Execute production cost models, 3. Calibrate prices, 4. Optimize hydropower operations, and 5. Quantify value drivers.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗

State-Level Trends in Renewable Energy Procurement via Solar Installation versus Green Electricity

In recent years, options for procuring renewable energy have increased, ranging from rooftop solar installation to utility green pricing to Community Choice Aggregation. These options vary in terms of costs and benefits to the consumer as well as grid integration implications. However, little is known regarding how the presence of a wide range of voluntary utility-scale renewable procurement options as well as their growth could affect adoption of distributed residential solar. To examine this relationship, we fit a two-stage least squares random effects regression model on panel data from 2016 to 2019 for all fifty US states plus the District of Columbia, controlling for variables that measure state-level policies, economic factors, and resource availability. Although there was no evidence of a strong relationship between demand for utility-scale and distributed options across all states, the state-level correlations suggest a wide variation between states including a positive, zero or negative relationship between utility-scale and distributed generation.

consumer demand↗