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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 1,387 records · Page 77
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

A newly proposed isotherm model to predict Cs exchange with crystalline silicotitanate in tank waste simulants

The Zheng Anthony Miller (ZAM) computer model, a multicomponent ion exchange model used to predict the exchange of Group I metals onto crystalline silicotitanate (CST), has historically been used to predict Cs distribution coefficients from Hanford and Savannah River Site (SRS) tank waste simulants. Comparison of experimentally determined Cs distribution coefficients from tank waste simulants with ZAM isotherm model predictions indicate overprediction of Cs and K distribution coefficients for simple and complex simulants with the engineered form of CST. Additionally, recent changes in chemical composition/manufacturing of IONSIV TM R9140-B have resulted in increased Cs capacity from high-salt, highly alkaline solutions. Here, this work served to assess different isotherm models and refine equilibrium parameters to develop a model that can be applied to Hanford and SRS tank waste Cs removal efforts. Toward this goal, the Campbell Westesen Peterson (CWP) model was developed. This model utilized the experimentally determined Cs capacity, and simplified ZAM equilibria expressions to include only the binary substitution of Cs + or K + on the Na + sites. Equilibrium constants for these equations were refined using experimentally determined distribution coefficients. Overall, the CWP model significantly improved our ability to predict both Cs and K loading capacity from complex matrices.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2021

Fluid temperature predictions of geothermal borefields using load estimations via state observers

Fluid temperature predictions of geothermal borefields usually involves temporal superposition of its characteristic g-function, using load aggregation schemes to reduce computational times. Assuming that the ground has linear properties, it can be modeled as a linear state space system where the states are the aggregated loads. However, the application and accuracy of these models is compromised when the borefield is already operating and its load history is not registered or there are gaps in the data. This paper assesses the performance of state observers to estimate the borefield load history and obtain accurate fluid predictions. Results show that both Time-Varying Kalman Filter (TVKF) and Moving Horizon Estimator (MHE) provide predictions with average and maximum errors below 0.1 $^\circ C$ and 1 $^\circ C$ respectively. MHE outperforms TVKF in terms of n-step ahead output predictions and load history profile at the expenses of about 5 times more computational time.

Figueroa, Iago C.↗
DOE OSTI2021

Impact of soil model complexity on the long-term thermal performance prediction of a new shallow bore ground heat exchanger

Shallow bore ground heat exchangers have been investigated in recent years because they have the potential to reduce the initial cost of the ground source heat pump system. Correctly modeling the transient heat transfer between the ground heat exchanger and the surrounding soil is essential for predicting a ground heat exchanger's performance. Simplification of the soil model could increase computation speed but sacrifice accuracy. This study investigates the impact of the soil model complexity on the annual performance prediction of a new shallow bore ground heat exchanger, the underground thermal battery (UTB). A simple 1D soil model and a more detailed 2D soil model were implemented, and they were validated against a 3D soil model. Overall, the resulting predictions of the UTB’s response from the 1D and 2D models to a given thermal load in different climates were compared. The results show that the root mean square differences between the hourly temperatures of the UTB during a year predicted using the two soil models range from 1.17°C to 3.39°C. As a result, the difference in the annual power consumption of the heat pump was between 0.7% and 3.4%. Furthermore, the dimensions of the UTB affected its performance, and a longer UTB was less sensitive to the soil models.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2020

Fast and stable deep-learning predictions of material properties for solid solution alloys

We present a novel deep learning (DL) approach to produce highly accurate predictions of macroscopic physical properties of solid solution binary alloys and magnetic systems. The major idea is to make use of the correlations between different physical properties in alloy systems to improve the prediction accuracy of neural network (NN) models. We use multitasking NN models to simultaneously predict the total energy, charge density and magnetic moment. These physical properties mutually serve as constraints during the training of the multitasking NN, resulting in more reliable DL models because multiple physics properties are correctly learned by a single model. Two binary alloys, copper–gold (CuAu) and iron–platinum (FePt), were studied. Our results show that once the multitasking NN's are trained, they can estimate the material properties for a specific configuration hundreds of times faster than first-principles density functional theory calculations while retaining comparable accuracy. We used a simple measure based on the root-mean-squared errors to quantify the quality of the NN models, and found that the inclusion of charge density and magnetic moment as physical constraints leads to more stable models that exhibit improved accuracy and reduced uncertainty for the energy predictions.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗
DOE OSTI2025

Assessing time-dependent temperature profile predictions using reduced transport models for high performing NSTX plasmas

Time-dependent, predictive simulations were performed with the 1.5D tokamak integrated modeling code TRANSP on a large set of well-analyzed, high performing discharges from the National Spherical Torus Experiment (NSTX) in order to evaluate how well modern reduced transport models can reproduce experimentally observed temperature profiles in spherical tokamaks. Overall, it is found that simulations using the Multi-Mode Model (MMM) more consistently agree with the NSTX observations than those using the Trapped Gyro-Landau Fluid (TGLF) model, despite TGLF requiring orders of magnitude greater computational cost. When considering all examined discharges, MMM has median overpredictions of electron temperature (T e ) and ion temperature (T i ) profiles of 28% and 27%, respectively, relative to the experiment. TGLF overpredicts T e by 46%, with much larger variance than MMM, and underpredicts T i by 25%. As the ratio of kinetic to magnetic field pressure (β) is increased across NSTX discharges, TGLF predicts lower T e and significant flattening of the T i profile, conflicting with NSTX observations. When using an electrostatic version of TGLF, both T e and T i are substantially overpredicted, underscoring the importance of electromagnetic turbulence in the high β spherical tokamak regime. Additionally, calculations with neural net surrogate models for TGLF were performed outside of TRANSP with a time slice flux matching transport solver, finding better agreement with experiment than the TRANSP simulations, highlighting the impact of different transport solvers and simulation techniques. Furthermore, the reasonable agreement with experiment of temperature profiles predicted by MMM motivates a more detailed examination of the sensitivities of the TRANSP simulations with MMM to different NSTX plasma regimes in a companion paper (Lestz et al Plasma Phys. Control. Fusion 67 105030), in preparation for self-consistent, time-dependent predictive modeling of NSTX-U scenarios.

Lestz, J. B. [General Atomics, San Diego, CA (Unit↗
DOE OSTI2020

Progress in DIII-D towards validating divertor power exhaust predictions

In this study, UEDGE simulations highlight the role of cross-field drifts on the onset of detached conditions, and new calibrated divertor vacuum ultra violet (VUV) spectroscopy is used to challenge the predictions of radiative constituents in these simulations. UEDGE simulations for DIII-D H-mode plasmas with the open divertor with the ion ∇B-drift towards the X-point show a bifurcated onset of the low field side (LFS) divertor detachment, consistent with experimentally observed step-like detachment onset (Jaervinen A.E. et al 2018 Phys. Rev. Lett. 121 075001). The divertor plasma in the simulations exhibits hysteresis in upstream separatrix density between attached and detached solution branches. Reducing the drift magnitude by a factor of 3 eliminates the step-like detachment onset in the simulations, confirming the strong role of drifts in the bifurcated detachment onset. When measured local plasma densities and temperatures are within proximity of predicted values in the simulations, there is no shortfall of the local emission of the dominant resonant radiating lines. However, the simulations systematically predict a factor of two lower total integrated radiated power than measured by the bolometer with the difference lost through radial heat flow out of the computational domain. Even though there is no shortfall in the emission of the dominant lines, a shortfall of total radiated power can be caused by underpredicted spatial extent of the radiation front, indicating a potential upstream or divertor transport physics origin for the radiation shortfall, or shortfall of radiated power in the spectrum between the dominant lines. In addition to the underpredicted spatial extent, in detached conditions, the simulations overpredict the peak radiation and dominant carbon lines near the X-point, which can be alleviated by manually increasing divertor diffusivity in the simulations, highlighting the ad hoc cross-field transport as one of the key limitations of the predictive capability of these divertor fluid codes.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2021

Data-driven profile prediction for DIII-D

A new, fully data-driven algorithm has been developed that uses neural networks to predict plasma pro les on a scale of τ E into the future given actuators and the present plasma state. The model was trained and tested on DIII-D data from the 2013-2018 experimental campaigns. The model is accurate on average, with q predictions the worst and pressure predictions the best. The model can run in milliseconds and is very simple to use. This makes it a potentially useful tool for operators and physicists when planning plasma scenarios. It also is a candidate for doing phase-space exploration without going through the DIIID database or complicated and computationally expensive simulation codes. Here, a reduced model using only realtime diagnostics has also been developed and formed the basis for a model-predictive control algorithm implemented and successfully tested on DIII-D.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2021

Testing predictions of electron scale turbulent pedestal transport in two DIII-D ELMy H-modes

In this study, we present linear and nonlinear gyrokinetic analyses in the pedestal region of two DIII-D ELMy H-mode discharges using the CGYRO code. The otherwise matched discharges employ different divertor configurations to investigate the impact of varying recycling and particle source on pedestal profiles. Linear gyrokinetic simulations find electrostatic ion-scale instabilities (ion temperature gradient and trapped electron modes, ITG-TEM) are present just inside the top of the pedestal with growth rates that are enhanced significantly by parallel velocity shear. In the sharp gradient region, E x B shearing rates are comparable or larger than ion scale growth rates, suggesting the suppression of ITG-TEM modes in this region. Instead, the electron temperature profiles are found to be correlated with and just above the electron temperature gradient (ETG) instability thresholds. Using gradients varied within experimental uncertainties, nonlinear electron-scale gyrokinetic simulations predict electron heat fluxes from ETG turbulence, that when added to neoclassical ion thermal transport simulated by NEO, account for 30-60% of the total experimental heat flux. In addition, the neoclassical electron particle flux is found to contribute significantly to the experimental fluxes inferred from SOLPS-ITER analysis. Additional nonlinear gyrokinetic simulations are run varying input gradients to develop a threshold-based reduced model for ETG transport, finding a relatively simple dependence on η e = L ne /L Te . Predictive transport simulations are used to validate this pedestal-specific ETG model, in conjunction with a model for neoclassical particle transport. In both discharges, the predicted electron temperatures are always overpredicted, indicative of the insufficient stiffness in the ETG pedestal model to account for all of the experimental electron thermal transport. In the case of the closed divertor discharge with lower particle source, the predicted electron density is close to the experiment, consistent with the magnitude of neoclassical particle transport in that discharge. However, the density profiles are overpredicted in the open divertor discharge (larger particle source), due to insufficient model transport. In conclusion, the implications for other mechanisms accounting for the remainder of transport in the sharp gradient region in the two discharges are discussed.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Density pedestal prediction model for tokamak plasmas

Abstract A model for the pedestal density prediction based on neutral penetration combined with pedestal transport is presented. The model is tested against a pedestal database of JET-ILW Type I ELMy H-modes showing good agreement over a wide range of parameters both in standalone modelling (using the experimental temperature profile) and in full Europed modelling that predicts both density and temperature pedestals simultaneously. The model is further tested for ASDEX Upgrade and MAST-U Type I ELMy H-modes and both are found to agree with the same model parameters as for JET-ILW. The JET-ILW experiment where the isotope of the main ion is varied in a D/T scan at constant gas rate and constant β N is successfully modelled as long as the separatrix density ( n e,sep ) and pedestal transport coefficient ratio ( D / χ ) are varied in accordance with the experimentally observed variation of n e,sep and the isotope dependence of D / χ found in gyrokinetic simulations. The predictions are found to be sensitive to n e,sep which is why the model is combined with an n e,sep model to predict the pedestal for the STEP fusion reactor.

Physics↗
DOE OSTI2025

Predictive turbulence-driven flux model of scrape-off layer widths across confinement regimes in tokamaks

Reliable scrape-off layer (SOL) profile decay lengths predictions are needed to design and operate future tokamaks. The present manuscript describes a new model based on turbulent transport that is able to predict SOL widths for both L-mode and H-mode plasmas. The model is based upon the sheared-spectral filament paradigm (Peret et al (WEST Team) 2022 Phys. Plasmas 29 072306), however, incorporating the effects of thermal transport in order to calculate the parallel heat fluxes. The effects of magnetic shear and ExB shear on the cross-field transport are crucial to explain the shorter SOL decay lengths found in H-mode. The model is validated against a database of thousands of DIII-D L-mode and H-mode SOL profiles. We also calculate SOL decay length predictions in terms of plasma and engineer control parameters, which are in agreement with the multi-machine empirical H-mode scaling (Eich et al (ASDEX Upgrade Team and JET EFDA Contributors) 2013 Nucl. Fusion 53 093031), however, with an additional device geometry dependence. ITER SOL width predictions by the model are 3 times higher than the empirical scaling.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2026

Autoregressive long-horizon prediction of plasma edge dynamics *

Accurate modeling of scrape-off layer (SOL) and divertor-edge dynamics is vital for designing plasma-facing components in fusion devices. High-fidelity edge fluid/neutral codes such as SOLPS-ITER capture SOL physics with high accuracy, but their computational cost limits broad parameter scans and long transient studies. We present transformer-based, autoregressive surrogates for efficient prediction of 2D, time-dependent plasma edge state fields. Trained on SOLPS-ITER spatiotemporal data for the KSTAR tokamak, the surrogates forecast electron temperature, electron density, and radiated power over extended horizons. We evaluate model variants trained with increasing autoregressive horizons (1–100 steps) on short- and long-horizon prediction tasks. Longer-horizon training systematically improves rollout stability and mitigates error accumulation, enabling stable predictions over hundreds to thousands of steps and reproducing key dynamical features such as the motion of high-radiation regions. Measured end-to-end wall-clock times show the surrogate is orders of magnitude faster than SOLPS-ITER, enabling rapid parameter exploration. Prediction accuracy degrades when the surrogate enters physical regimes not represented in the training dataset, motivating future work on data enrichment and physics-informed constraints. Overall, this approach provides a fast, accurate surrogate for computationally intensive plasma edge simulations, supporting rapid scenario exploration, control-oriented studies, and progress toward real-time applications in fusion devices.

autoregressive deep learning↗
DOE OSTI2023

Machine learning models inaccurately predict current and future high-latitude C balances

The high-latitude carbon (C) cycle is a key feedback to the global climate system, yet because of system complexity and data limitations, there is currently disagreement over whether the region is a source or sink of C. Recent advances in big data analytics and computing power have popularized the use of machine learning (ML) algorithms to upscale site measurements of ecosystem processes, and in some cases forecast the response of these processes to climate change. Due to data limitations, however, ML model predictions of these processes are almost never validated with independent datasets. To better understand and characterize the limitations of these methods, we develop an approach to independently evaluate ML upscaling and forecasting. We mimic data-driven upscaling and forecasting efforts by applying ML algorithms to different subsets of regional process-model simulation gridcells, and then test ML performance using the remaining gridcells. In this study, we simulate C fluxes and environmental data across Alaska using ecosys, a process-rich terrestrial ecosystem model, and then apply boosted regression tree ML algorithms to training data configurations that mirror and expand upon existing AmeriFLUX eddy-covariance data availability. We first show that a ML model trained using ecosys outputs from currently-available Alaska AmeriFLUX sites incorrectly predicts that Alaska is presently a modeled net C source. Increased spatial coverage of the training dataset improves ML predictions, halving the bias when 240 modeled sites are used instead of 15. However, even this more accurate ML model incorrectly predicts Alaska C fluxes under 21st century climate change because of changes in atmospheric CO 2 , litter inputs, and vegetation composition that have impacts on C fluxes which cannot be inferred from the training data. Our results provide key insights to future C flux upscaling efforts and expose the potential for inaccurate ML upscaling and forecasting of high-latitude C cycle dynamics.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Direct prediction of inelastic neutron scattering spectra from the crystal structure*

Abstract Inelastic neutron scattering (INS) is a powerful technique to study vibrational dynamics of materials with several unique advantages. However, analysis and interpretation of INS spectra often require advanced modeling that needs specialized computing resources and relevant expertise. This difficulty is compounded by the limited experimental resources available to perform INS measurements. In this work, we develop a machine-learning based predictive framework which is capable of directly predicting both one-dimensional INS spectra and two-dimensional INS spectra with additional momentum resolution. By integrating symmetry-aware neural networks with autoencoders, and using a large scale synthetic INS database, high-dimensional spectral data are compressed into a latent-space representation, and a high-quality spectra prediction is achieved by using only atomic coordinates as input. Our work offers an efficient approach to predict complex multi-dimensional neutron spectra directly from simple input; it allows for improved efficiency in using the limited INS measurement resources, and sheds light on building structure-property relationships in a variety of on-the-fly experimental data analysis scenarios.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Deep probabilistic direction prediction in 3D with applications to directional dark matter detectors

Abstract We present the first method to probabilistically predict 3D direction in a deep neural network model. The probabilistic predictions are modeled as a heteroscedastic von Mises-Fisher distribution on the sphere S 2 , giving a simple way to quantify aleatoric uncertainty. This approach generalizes the cosine distance loss which is a special case of our loss function when the uncertainty is assumed to be uniform across samples. We develop approximations required to make the likelihood function and gradient calculations stable. The method is applied to the task of predicting the 3D directions of electrons, the most complex signal in a class of experimental particle physics detectors designed to demonstrate the particle nature of dark matter and study solar neutrinos. Using simulated Monte Carlo data, the initial direction of recoiling electrons is inferred from their tortuous trajectories, as captured by the 3D detectors. For 40 keV electrons in a 70% He 30% CO 2 gas mixture at STP, the new approach achieves a mean cosine distance of 0.104 (26 ∘ ) compared to 0.556 (64 ∘ ) achieved by a non-machine learning algorithm. We show that the model is well-calibrated and accuracy can be increased further by removing samples with high predicted uncertainty. This advancement in probabilistic 3D directional learning could increase the sensitivity of directional dark matter detectors.

Computer Science↗
DOE OSTI2024

Machine learning materials properties with accurate predictions, uncertainty estimates, domain guidance, and persistent online accessibility

One compelling vision of the future of materials discovery and design involves the use of machine learning (ML) models to predict materials properties and then rapidly find materials tailored for specific applications. However, realizing this vision requires both providing detailed uncertainty quantification (model prediction errors and domain of applicability) and making models readily usable. At present, it is common practice in the community to assess ML model performance only in terms of prediction accuracy (e.g. mean absolute error), while neglecting detailed uncertainty quantification and robust model accessibility and usability. Here, we demonstrate a practical method for realizing both uncertainty and accessibility features with a large set of models. We develop random forest ML models for 33 materials properties spanning an array of data sources (computational and experimental) and property types (electrical, mechanical, thermodynamic, etc). All models have calibrated ensemble error bars to quantify prediction uncertainty and domain of applicability guidance enabled by kernel-density-estimate-based feature distance measures. All data and models are publicly hosted on the Garden-AI infrastructure, which provides an easy-to-use, persistent interface for model dissemination that permits models to be invoked with only a few lines of Python code. We demonstrate the power of this approach by using our models to conduct a fully ML-based materials discovery exercise to search for new stable, highly active perovskite oxide catalyst materials.

domain of applicability↗
DOE OSTI2023

Sensitivity Analysis of Genome-Scale Metabolic Flux Prediction

TRIMER, Transcription Regulation Integrated with MEtabolic Regulation, is a genome-scale modeling pipeline targeting at metabolic engineering applications. Using TRIMER, regulated metabolic reactions can be effectively predicted by integrative modeling of metabolic reactions with a Transcription Factor (TF)-gene regulatory network (TRN), which is modeled via a Bayesian network (BN). In this paper, we focus on sensitivity analysis of metabolic flux prediction for uncertainty quantification of BN structures for TRN modeling in TRIMER. We propose a computational strategy to construct the uncertainty class of TRN models based on the inferred regulatory order uncertainty given transcriptomic expression data. With that, we analyze the prediction sensitivity of the TRIMER pipeline for the metabolite yields of interest. The obtained sensitivity analyses can guide Optimal Experimental Design (OED) to help acquire new data that can enhance TRN modeling and achieve specific metabolic engineering objectives, including metabolite yield alterations. Here we have performed small- and large-scale simulated experiments, demonstrating the effectiveness of our developed sensitivity analysis strategy for BN structure learning to quantify the edge importance in terms of metabolic flux prediction uncertainty reduction and its potential to effectively guide OED.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

PRODeepSyn: predicting anticancer synergistic drug combinations by embedding cell lines with protein–protein interaction network

Abstract Although drug combinations in cancer treatment appear to be a promising therapeutic strategy with respect to monotherapy, it is arduous to discover new synergistic drug combinations due to the combinatorial explosion. Deep learning technology holds immense promise for better prediction of in vitro synergistic drug combinations for certain cell lines. In methods applying such technology, omics data are widely adopted to construct cell line features. However, biological network data are rarely considered yet, which is worthy of in-depth study. In this study, we propose a novel deep learning method, termed PRODeepSyn, for predicting anticancer synergistic drug combinations. By leveraging the Graph Convolutional Network, PRODeepSyn integrates the protein–protein interaction (PPI) network with omics data to construct low-dimensional dense embeddings for cell lines. PRODeepSyn then builds a deep neural network with the Batch Normalization mechanism to predict synergy scores using the cell line embeddings and drug features. PRODeepSyn achieves the lowest root mean square error of 15.08 and the highest Pearson correlation coefficient of 0.75, outperforming two deep learning methods and four machine learning methods. On the classification task, PRODeepSyn achieves an area under the receiver operator characteristics curve of 0.90, an area under the precision–recall curve of 0.63 and a Cohen’s Kappa of 0.53. In the ablation study, we find that using the multi-omics data and the integrated PPI network’s information both can improve the prediction results. Additionally, the case study demonstrates the consistency between PRODeepSyn and previous studies.

Wang, Xiaowen↗
DOE OSTI2021

VPF-Class: taxonomic assignment and host prediction of uncultivated viruses based on viral protein families

Abstract Motivation Two key steps in the analysis of uncultured viruses recovered from metagenomes are the taxonomic classification of the viral sequences and the identification of putative host(s). Both steps rely mainly on the assignment of viral proteins to orthologs in cultivated viruses. Viral Protein Families (VPFs) can be used for the robust identification of new viral sequences in large metagenomics datasets. Despite the importance of VPF information for viral discovery, VPFs have not yet been explored for determining viral taxonomy and host targets. Results In this work, we classified the set of VPFs from the IMG/VR database and developed VPF-Class. VPF-Class is a tool that automates the taxonomic classification and host prediction of viral contigs based on the assignment of their proteins to a set of classified VPFs. Applying VPF-Class on 731K uncultivated virus contigs from the IMG/VR database, we were able to classify 363K contigs at the genus level and predict the host of over 461K contigs. In the RefSeq database, VPF-class reported an accuracy of nearly 100% to classify dsDNA, ssDNA and retroviruses, at the genus level, considering a membership ratio and a confidence score of 0.2. The accuracy in host prediction was 86.4%, also at the genus level, considering a membership ratio of 0.3 and a confidence score of 0.5. And, in the prophages dataset, the accuracy in host prediction was 86% considering a membership ratio of 0.6 and a confidence score of 0.8. Moreover, from the Global Ocean Virome dataset, over 817K viral contigs out of 1 million were classified. Availability and implementation The implementation of VPF-Class can be downloaded from https://github.com/biocom-uib/vpf-tools. Supplementary information Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗