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NASA NTRS2015

Underestimation of Project Costs

Large projects almost always exceed their budgets. Estimating cost is difficult and estimated costs are usually too low. Three different reasons are suggested: bad luck, overoptimism, and deliberate underestimation. Project management can usually point to project difficulty and complexity, technical uncertainty, stakeholder conflicts, scope changes, unforeseen events, and other not really unpredictable bad luck. Project planning is usually over-optimistic, so the likelihood and impact of bad luck is systematically underestimated. Project plans reflect optimism and hope for success in a supposedly unique new effort rather than rational expectations based on historical data. Past project problems are claimed to be irrelevant because "This time it's different." Some bad luck is inevitable and reasonable optimism is understandable, but deliberate deception must be condemned. In a competitive environment, project planners and advocates often deliberately underestimate costs to help gain project approval and funding. Project benefits, cost savings, and probability of success are exaggerated and key risks ignored. Project advocates have incentives to distort information and conceal difficulties from project approvers. One naively suggested cure is more openness, honesty, and group adherence to shared overall goals. A more realistic alternative is threatening overrun projects with cancellation. Neither approach seems to solve the problem. A better method to avoid the delusions of over-optimism and the deceptions of biased advocacy is to base the project cost estimate on the actual costs of a large group of similar projects. Over optimism and deception can continue beyond the planning phase and into project execution. Hard milestones based on verified tests and demonstrations can provide a reality check.

Cost estimation↗

NASA NTRS1997

Altered astronaut lower limb and mass center kinematics in downward jumping following space flight

Astronauts exposed to the microgravity conditions encountered during space flight exhibit postural and gait instabilities upon return to earth that could impair critical postflight performance. The aim of the present study was to determine the effects of microgravity exposure on astronauts' performance of two-footed jump landings. Nine astronauts from several Space Shuttle missions were tested both preflight and postflight with a series of voluntary, two-footed downward hops from a 30-cm-high step. A video-based, three-dimensional motion-analysis system permitted calculation of body segment positions and joint angular displacements. Phase-plane plots of knee, hip, and ankle angular velocities compared with the corresponding joint angles were used to describe the lower limb kinematics during jump landings. The position of the whole-body center of mass (COM) was also estimated in the sagittal plane using an eight-segment body model. Four of nine subjects exhibited expanded phase-plane portraits postflight, with significant increases in peak joint flexion angles and flexion rates following space flight. In contrast, two subjects showed significant contractions of their phase-plane portraits postflight and three subjects showed insignificant overall changes after space flight. Analysis of the vertical COM motion generally supported the joint angle results. Subjects with expanded joint angle phase-plane portraits postflight exhibited larger downward deviations of the COM and longer times from impact to peak deflection, as well as lower upward recovery velocities. Subjects with postflight joint angle phase-plane contraction demonstrated opposite effects in the COM motion. The joint kinematics results indicated the existence of two contrasting response modes due to microgravity exposure. Most subjects exhibited "compliant" impact absorption postflight, consistent with decreased limb stiffness and damping, and a reduction in the bandwidth of the postural control system. Fewer subjects showed "stiff" behavior after space flight, where contractions in the phase-plane portraits pointed to an increase in control bandwidth. The changes appeared to result from adaptive modifications in the control of lower limb impedance. A simple 2nd-order model of the vertical COM motion indicated that changes in the effective vertical stiffness of the legs can predict key features of the postflight performance. Compliant responses may reflect inflight adaptation due to altered demands on the postural control system in microgravity, while stiff behavior may result from overcompensation postflight for the presumed reduction in limb stiffness inflight.

Clinical Trial↗

NASA NTRS1980

Satellite power system (SPS) magnetron tube assessment study

Taks performed to extend the data base and to define a technology development program for the magnetron directional amplifier for the SPS are reviewed. These include: (1) demonstrating the tracking of phase and amplitude of the microwave output to phase and amplitude references; (2) expanding the range of power over which the directional amplifier will operate; (3)recognizing the importance of amplitude control in overall system design and in simplifying power conditioning; (4) developing a preliminary design for the overall architecture of the power module; (5) demonstrating magnetron starting using the amplitude control system; (6) mathematically modelling and performing a computerized study of the pyrolytic graphite radiating fin; (7) defining the mass of the magnetic circuit for the SPS tube; (8) noise measurement; (9) achieving harmonic suppression by notch reflection filters; (10) estimating the mass of the transmitting antenna; (11) developing a magnetron package with power generation, phase control, and power condition functions; and (12) projecting magnetron package characteristics.

Source record↗

NASA NTRS2006

Elemental and Molecular Relative Abundances in the Ejecta of Eta Carinae

We are measuring relative elemental abundances for the ejecta in the line of sight from Eta Carinae using high dispersion spectroscopy with the HST/STIS and the VLT/UVES. While multiple velocity components have been identified, we focus on the -513 and -146 km/s components originating from the Homunculus and the Little Homunculus. Complicating factors are the complex nebular structures in the immediate vicinity of the bright, massive star: the very bright emission structures, Weigelt blobs B, C and D, the broad, clumpy structures of the extended wind apparently not photoionized by Eta Car B, and general scattered starlight from the extended wind and the dusty core of the circumstellar material. We have used the 3050 to 3160A region of overlap between STIS and UVES to intercompare equivalent widths of absorption lines to estimate the 'contributing factor', namely the amount of light originating from the star compared to nebular structures. While the extracted STIS spectra are from 0.1" wide aperture, the UVES spectra are limited by the 1" seeing conditions. Curiously we find that the scattering contribution in the UVES spectra changes with time, apparently with orbital phase of the 5.54-year period. This indicates that the dust may be modified by changes in the central source with phase. The noticeable drop in scattered light appears to occur about 1.7 years (phase 0.35) after the spectroscopic minimum. Relative abundances of iron peak elements and some molecules will be estimated. Observations in this study were accomplished with HST through STSci and with VLT through ESO and funded under STIS GTO resources.

Kober, G. V.↗

DOE OSTI2021

Thermal Effects on Far-Field Distributed Acoustic Strain-Rate Sensors

Summary Fiber-optic cables cemented outside of the casing of an unconventional well measure crosswell strain changes during fracturing of neighboring wells with low-frequency distributed acoustic sensing (LF-DAS). As a hydraulic fracture intersects an observation well instrumented with fiber-optic cables, the fracture fluid injected at ambient temperatures can cool a section of the sensing fiber. Often, LF-DAS and distributed temperature sensing (DTS) cables are run in tandem, enabling the detection of such cooling events. The increasing use of LF-DAS for characterizing unconventional hydraulic fracture completions demands an investigation of the effects of temperature on the measured strain response by LF-DAS. Researchers have demonstrated that LF-DAS can be used to extract the temporal derivative of temperature for use as a differential-temperature-gradient sensor. However, differential-temperature-gradient sensing is predicated on the ability to filter strain components out of the optical signal. In this work, beginning with an equation for optical phase shift of LF-DAS signals, a model relating strain, temperature, and optical phase shift is explicitly developed. The formula provides insights into the relative strength of strain and temperature effects on the phase shift. The uncertainty in the strain-rate measurements due to thermal effects is estimated. The relationship can also be used to quantify uncertainties in differential-temperature-gradient sensors due to strain perturbations. Additionally, a workflow is presented to simulate the LF-DAS response accounting for both strain and temperature effects. Hydraulic fracture geometries are generated with a 3D fracture simulator for a multistage unconventional completion. The fracture width distributions are imported by a displacement discontinuity method (DDM) program to compute the strain rates along an observation well. An analytic model is used to approximate the temperature in the fracture. Using the derived formulae for optical phase shift, the model outputs are then used to compute the LF-DAS response at a fiber-optic cable, enabling the generation of waterfall plots including both strain and thermal effects. The model results suggest that before, during, and immediately following a fracture intersecting a well instrumented with fiber, the strain on the fiber drives the LF-DAS signal. However, at later times, as completion fluid cools the observation well, the temperature component of the LF-DAS signal can be equal to or exceed the strain component. The modeled results are compared to a published field case in an attempt to enhance the interpretation of LF-DAS waterfall plots. Finally, we propose a sensing configuration to identify the events when “wet fractures” (fractures with fluids) intersect the observation well.

Engineering↗

NASA NTRS2020

Optical Navigation for Autonomous Approach of Small Unknown Bodies

State of the practice in navigation around small celestial bodies heavily relies on ground sup- port and human skill, in particular, for perception-based operations such as optical navigation and mapping. This leads to longer duration and more complex mission operations and sub- sequently higher cost. Furthermore, it imposes limitations for certain missions such as fast fly-bys or multi-agent operations. In this work, we present an autonomous navigation strat- egy suitable for approaching small unexplored bodies. During the approach, we estimate the body’s physical properties as well as the spacecraft’s relative trajectory and associated un- certainties. The autonomous navigation strategy, which is solely based on optical measure- ments, begins as soon as the body becomes resolved in the navigation camera and terminates at the start of proximity operations, when the spacecraft makes its first trajectory correction to stay in the vicinity of the body. Our strategy uses multiple image-processing algorithms: light-curve analysis for estimating the target body’s rotation rate, Shape-from-Silhouette for reconstructing the 3D shape and estimating its rotation pole, and feature tracking tailored to Small-Body images for estimating relative navigation parameters. We used the Mission Analysis, Operations, and Navigation Toolkit Environment (MONTE) developed by the Jet Propulsion Laboratory to evaluate the feasibility of this multi-phase navigation strategy using simulated images of an approach trajectory. We used the Rosetta mission data to generate photorealistic images to characterise the performance of this approach. This work is based on the assumptions that the spacecraft attitude is known, the body is a principal-axis rotator, a-priori estimates of ephemerides and scale are available, and the body is observed from a zero sun phase only during initial approach. Preliminary results show orbit determination performance that is on par with the human navigation from the Rosetta mission; albeit with a 1% bias in spacecraft-target radial distance estimate. The bias error is likely due to the robustness and accuracy of the visual tracking under dynamic lighting conditions and per- spective changes, which decrease accuracy.

Villa, Jacopo↗

NASA NTRS2005

The Effect of Metal Composition on Fe-Ni Partition Behavior between Olivine and FeNi-Metal, FeNi-Carbide, FeNi-Sulfide at Elevated Pressure

Metal-olivine Fe-Ni exchange distribution coefficients were determined at 1500 C over the pressure range of 1 to 9 GPa for solid and liquid alloy compositions. The metal alloy composition was varied with respect to the Fe/Ni ratio and the amount of dissolved carbon and sulfur. The Fe/Ni ratio of the metal phase exercises an important control on the abundance of Ni in the olivine. The Ni abundance in the olivine decreases as the Fe/Ni ratio of the coexisting metal increases. The presence of carbon (up to approx. 3.5 wt.%) and sulfur (up to approx. 7.5 wt.%) in solution in the liquid Fe-Ni-metal phase has a minor effect on the partitioning of Fe and Ni between metal and olivine phases. No pressure dependence of the Fe-Ni-metal-olivine exchange behavior in carbon- and sulfur-free and carbon- and sulfur-containing systems was found within the investigated pressure range. To match the Ni abundance in terrestrial mantle olivine, assuming an equilibrium metal-olivine distribution, a sub-chondritic Fe/Ni-metal ratio that is a factor of 17 to 27 lower than the Fe/Ni ratios in estimated Earth core compositions would be required, implying higher Fe concentrations in the core forming metal phase. A simple metal-olivine equilibrium distribution does not seem to be feasible to explain the Ni abundances in the Earth's mantle. An equilibrium between metal and olivine does not exercise a control on the problem of Ni overabundance in the Earth's mantle. The experimental results do not contradict the presence of a magma ocean at the time of terrestrial core formation, if olivine was present in only minor amounts at the time of metal segregation.

Holzheid, Astrid↗

DOE OSTI2023

Cost Estimates of Roll-to-Roll Production of Organic Light Emitting Devices for Lighting

White organic light emitting devices (WOLEDs) offerdistinct advantages as solid state lighting sources, including high energy efficiency, superior color quality,and a flexible, thin profile that can accommodate a vast array of possible fixture designs. Recent advances in device lifetime and high speed deposition suggest that mass production of WOLED panels is approaching an inflection point. To understand the tradeoffs in the volume manufacturing of WOLED lighting panels, in this work, we estimate the cost of white WOLED panel production based on vacuum and vapor phase deposition in a roll-to-roll production line envisioned to yield an annual capacity of at least 6 × 10 6 m 2 . Assuming a WOLED operating luminance at 10 klm/m 2 , we anticipate a $\$12.5$ /klm cost of a WOLED light engine that includes the cost of the current driverand packaging. With incremental reduction in material and driver costs and improved luminance, the costof WOLED lighting can be reduced to $\$6.3$ /klm in thenear term, potentially positioning WOLEDs for use innumerous premium lighting applications.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2025

Water structure and electric fields at the interface of oil droplets

Interfacial water exhibits rich and complex behaviour, playing an important part in chemistry, biology, geology and engineering. However, there is still much debate on the fundamental properties of water at hydrophobic interfaces, such as orientational ordering, the concentration of hydronium and hydroxide, improper hydrogen bonds and the presence of large electric fields. This controversy arises from the challenges in measuring interfacial systems, even with the most advanced experimental techniques and theoretical approaches available. Here we report on an in-solution, interface-selective Raman spectroscopy method using multivariate curve resolution to probe hexadecane-in-water emulsions, aided by a monomer-field theoretical model for Raman spectroscopy. Our results indicate that oil-water emulsion interfaces can exhibit reduced tetrahedral order and weaker hydrogen bonding, along with a substantial population of free hydroxyl groups that experience about 95 cm -1 redshift in their stretching mode compared with planar oil-water interfaces. Given the known electrostatic zeta potential characteristic of oil droplets, we propose the existence of a strong electric field (about 50-90 MV cm -1 ) emanating from the oil phase. This field is inferred indirectly but supported by control experiments and theoretical estimates. These observations are either absent or opposite in the molecular hydrophobic interface formed by small solutes or at planar oil-water interfaces. Instead, water structural disorder and enhanced electric fields emerge as unique features of the mesoscale interface in oil-water emulsions, potentially contributing to the accelerated chemical reactivity observed at hydrophobic-water interfaces.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2023

Superconducting properties and gap structure of the topological superconductor candidate Ti 3 Sb

Here, we present a study of the superconducting properties of the candidate topological superconductor Ti 3 Sb. Electrical transport measurements show zero resistance with a T c,onset of ≈ 5.9 K with a transition width ΔT c ≈ 0.6 K. The superconducting phase boundaries as derived from magnetotransport and magnetic susceptibility measurements agree well. We estimate an upper critical field B c2 (0) ≈ 4.5 T. A Ginzburg-Landau (GL) analysis yields values of the coherence length and penetration depth of ξ = 6.2 nm and λ = 340 nm, respectively, and a GL parameter κ ≈ 55, indicating extreme type-II behavior. Furthermore, we observe a step height in the specific heat $\frac{Δ C_e}{γ T_c}$ ≈ 1.61 ± 0.24 (with T c = 4.8 ± 0.4 K), a value larger than the Bardeen-Cooper-Schrieffer value of 1.43, suggesting modest coupling. Measurements of the temperature dependence of the London penetration depth via the tunnel-diode oscillator technique down to ≈ 450 mK show a full superconducting gap, consistent with a conventional s-wave gap structure.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

DOE OSTI2024

Random insights into the complexity of two-dimensional tensor network calculations

Projected entangled pair states (PEPS) offer memory-efficient representations of some quantum many-body states that obey an entanglement area law and are the basis for classical simulations of ground states in two-dimensional (2d) condensed matter systems. However, rigorous results show that exactly computing observables from a 2d PEPS state is generically a computationally hard problem. Yet approximation schemes for computing properties of 2d PEPS are regularly used, and empirically seen to succeed, for a large subclass of (“not too entangled”) condensed matter ground states. Adopting the philosophy of random matrix theory, in this work, we analyze the complexity of approximately contracting a 2d random PEPS by exploiting an analytic mapping to an effective replicated statistical mechanics model that permits a controlled analysis at a large bond dimension. Through this statistical-mechanics lens, we argue that (i) although approximately sampling wave-function amplitudes of random PEPS faces a computational-complexity phase transition above a critical bond dimension, and (ii) one can generically efficiently estimate the norm and correlation functions for any finite bond dimension. Furthermore, these results are supported numerically for various bond-dimension regimes. It is an important open question whether the above results for random PEPS apply more generally also to PEPS representing physically relevant ground states.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

DOE OSTI2025

𝑁-dimensional maximum-entropy tomography via particle sampling

We propose a modified maximum-entropy (MENT) algorithm for six-dimensional phase space tomography. The algorithm uses particle sampling and low-dimensional density estimation to approximate large sets of high-dimensional integrals in the original MENT formulation. We implement this approach using Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling techniques and demonstrate convergence of six-dimensional MENT on both synthetic and measured data.

Hoover, Austin [Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORN↗

DOE OSTI2022

Benchmarking Simulated Precipitation Variability Amplitude across Time Scales

Here, objective performance metrics that measure precipitation variability across time scales from subdaily to interannual are presented and applied to Historical simulations of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 and 6 (CMIP5 and CMIP6) models. Three satellite-based precipitation estimates (IMERG, TRMM, and CMORPH) are used as reference data. We apply two independent methods to estimate temporal variability of precipitation and compare the consistency in their results. The first method is derived from power spectra analysis of 3-hourly precipitation, measuring forced variability by solar insolation (diurnal and annual cycles) and internal variability at different time scales (subdaily, synoptic, subseasonal, seasonal, and interannual). The second method is based on time averaging and facilitates estimating the seasonality of subdaily variability. Supporting the robustness of our metric, we find a near equivalence between the results obtained from the two methods when examining simulated-to-observed ratios over large domains (global, tropics, extratropics, land, or ocean). Additionally, we demonstrate that our model evaluation is not very sensitive to the discrepancies between observations. Our results reveal that CMIP5 and CMIP6 models in general overestimate the forced variability while they underestimate the internal variability, especially in the tropical ocean and higher-frequency variability. The underestimation of subdaily variability is consistent across different seasons. The internal variability is overall improved in CMIP6, but remains underestimated, and there is little evidence of improvement in forced variability. Increased horizontal resolution results in some improvement of internal variability at subdaily and synoptic time scales, but not at longer time scales.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Kramers–Kronig relation in attosecond transient absorption spectroscopy

The Kramers–Kronig relation (KKR) has a wide range of applications in extreme ultraviolet (XUV) and x-ray spectroscopy. However, the validity of KKR for many of these applications has not been systematically studied, while it is known to require careful attention in nonlinear and pump–probe experiments in optical domain spectroscopy. Here, we study the validity of KKR in XUV attosecond transient absorption spectroscopy pump–probe measurements both experimentally and theoretically using argon Fano resonances as a case study. Experiments are enabled by a phase-resolved method dubbed Complex Attosecond Transient-absorption Spectroscopy (CATS). Although the estimations based on the rotating-wave approximation suggest that KKR violation could be expected in the studied case, our results validate KKR and provide a solid basis for its application in a broad range of attosecond spectroscopy experiments.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

NASA NTRS1977

Nonlinear stress waves in a perfectly flexible string

This paper discusses nonlinear stress-wave propagation in a perfectly flexible string obeying a quasilinear (rate-dependent) constitutive equation. Wave speeds and compatibility relations valid along various families of characteristics were determined. It was shown that the compatibility relations associated with the transverse as well as the longitudinal waves readily yield a physical interpretation when they are expressed in suitable variables and in vector form. Coding based on the present information was completed for the machine solution of a class of mixed initial- and boundary-value problems of practical interest. Computer simulation of the stress-wave interaction in the 40-foot lanyard in the Arcas 'Rocoz' system during deployment was carried out using a stress-strain relation for nylon at the strain rate of 30/second. A method for estimating the maximum tension and strain in a string during the initial loading phase is proposed.

Fan, D.-N.↗

NASA NTRS1975

Evaluation and comparison of alternative designs for water/solid-waste processing systems for spacecraft

Promising candidate designs currently being considered for the management of spacecraft solid waste and waste-water materials were assessed. The candidate processes were: (1) the radioisotope thermal energy evaporation/incinerator process; (2) the dry incineration process; and (3) the wet oxidation process. The types of spacecraft waste materials that were included in the base-line computational input to the candidate systems were feces, urine residues, trash and waste-water concentrates. The performance characteristics and system requirements for each candidate process to handle this input and produce the specified acceptable output (i.e., potable water, a storable dry ash, and vapor phase products that can be handled by a spacecraft atmosphere control system) were estimated and compared. Recommendations are presented.

Spurlock, J. M.↗

NASA NTRS1982

A revision of metallographic cooling rate curves for chondrites

New metallographic cooling rate curves for the chondritic meteorites are calculated. On the basis of these curves, estimated cooling rates for the chondrites are twice as fast as those determined using the Wood (1967) curves. This change in estimated rates derives from the use of the most recent Fe-Ni phase diagram and the use of more accurate computational techniques. The new cooling rate curves can be applied to meteorites with P contents in the metal phase less than 0.01 wt%. They should be applied with some caution to meteorites, such as the unequilibrated ordinary chondrites, where the metal grains may not have equilibrated above approximately 850K, or to metallic phases which contain P in quantities greater than 0.01 wt% and/or phosphides.

Willis, J.↗

NASA NTRS1984

Testing and optimizing MST coaxial collinear arrays, part 6.4A

Many clear-air VHF wind profiles use coaxial collinear (COCO) arrays for their antenna. A COCO array is composed of long lines of half-wave dipoles spaced one-half wavelength apart. An inexpensive method of checking a COCO array is described and its performance is optimized by measuring and then correcting the relative rf phase among its lines at their feed point. This method also gives an estimate of the rf current amplitude among the lines. The strength and location of the sidelobes in the H-plane of the array can be estimated.

Warnock, J. M.↗