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Lee waves: Benign and malignant

The flow of an incompressible fluid over an obstacle will produce an oscillation in which buoyancy is the restoring force, called a gravity wave. For disturbances of this scale, the atmosphere may be treated as dynamically incompressible, even though there exists a mean static upward density gradient. Even in the linear approximation - i.e., for small disturbances - this model explains a great many of the flow phenomena observed in the lee of mountains. However, nonlinearities do arise importantly, in three ways: (1) through amplification due to the decrease of mean density with height; (2) through the large (scaled) size of the obstacle, such as a mountain range; and (3) from dynamically singular levels in the fluid field. These effects produce a complicated array of phenomena - large departure of the streamlines from their equilibrium levels, high winds, generation of small scales, turbulence, etc. - that present hazards to aircraft and to lee surface areas. The nonlinear disturbances also interact with the larger-scale flow in such a manner as to impact global weather forecasts and the climatological momentum balance. If there is no dynamic barrier, these waves can penetrate vertically into the middle atmosphere (30-100 km), where recent observations show them to be of a length scale that must involve the coriolis force in any modeling. At these altitudes, the amplitude of the waves is very large, and the phenomena associated with these wave dynamics are being studied with a view to their potential impact on high performance aircraft, including the projected National Aerospace Plane (NASP). The presentation shows the results of analysis and of state-of-the-art numerical simulations, validated where possible by observational data, and illustrated with photographs from nature.

Wurtele, M. G.↗

Use of Maps, GTE and UARS-MLS Data in Understanding Tropospheric Processes Critical to Model Development

Two of the major problems in using meteorological models to explain observed tropospheric trace constituent distributions and thereby to understand the global budgets of the tracers are to properly define the vertical layered structure in the free atmosphere, and to understand the contribution of advection processes in generating horizontal inhomogeneities at all scales. We proposed to tackle these problems through the examination of an extensive collection of trace constituent data from research and commercial aircraft in conjunction with meteorological data from the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts. The physical mechanisms responsible for these advection and layering processes were explored and their implications for theories and models assessed. In addition, we calculated examples of how thin layers (not currently resolved by models) affect the radiative heating/cooling rates. We developed an improved algorithm for trace constituent layer detection, and used it to analyze over 100,000 km of ozone and humidity vertical profiles collected by instruments piggybacked on commercial aircraft. We have also performed radiative heating/cooling calculations on some observed layer structures, and have demonstrated that the sharp edges on humidity layers can have strong local effects of self-stabilization (dry layers) or destabilization (wet layers), and have suggested that clear-air turbulence might result from the latter case through convective instability. We also systematically analyzed the mesoscale variabilities, not only of the trace constituents, but also of the aircraft-measured dynamical variables.

Newell, Reginald E.↗

Global Soil Moisture from the Aquarius/SAC-D Satellite: Description and Initial Assessment

Aquarius satellite observations over land offer a new resource for measuring soil moisture from space. Although Aquarius was designed for ocean salinity mapping, our objective in this investigation is to exploit the large amount of land observations that Aquarius acquires and extend the mission scope to include the retrieval of surface soil moisture. The soil moisture retrieval algorithm development focused on using only the radiometer data because of the extensive heritage of passive microwave retrieval of soil moisture. The single channel algorithm (SCA) was implemented using the Aquarius observations to estimate surface soil moisture. Aquarius radiometer observations from three beams (after bias/gain modification) along with the National Centers for Environmental Prediction model forecast surface temperatures were then used to retrieve soil moisture. Ancillary data inputs required for using the SCA are vegetation water content, land surface temperature, and several soil and vegetation parameters based on land cover classes. The resulting global spatial patterns of soil moisture were consistent with the precipitation climatology and with soil moisture from other satellite missions (Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer for the Earth Observing System and Soil Moisture Ocean Salinity). Initial assessments were performed using in situ observations from the U.S. Department of Agriculture Little Washita and Little River watershed soil moisture networks. Results showed good performance by the algorithm for these land surface conditions for the period of August 2011-June 2013 (rmse = 0.031 m(exp 3)/m(exp 3), Bias = −0.007 m(exp 3)/m(exp 3), and R = 0.855). This radiometer-only soil moisture product will serve as a baseline for continuing research on both active and combined passive-active soil moisture algorithms. The products are routinely available through the National Aeronautics and Space Administration data archive at the National Snow and Ice Data Center.

Soil MOisture↗

The PolCube CubeSat Polarimeter for Earth Science

PolCube is a 12U CubeSat + polarimeter instrument designed by NASA Langley and the Korea Astronomy and Space Science Institute (KASI) for Earth Science. PolCube is based on the PolCam polarimeter onboard the Korean Pathfinder Lunar Observatory (KPLO) that launched in August 2022. The objective of the PolCube instrument is to retrieve detailed fine-mode (pollution and smoke) and coarse-mode (sea-salt and dust) aerosol properties over the ocean for a range of light to heavy aerosol loadings using its polarimetric-imaging capability at multiple angles and wavelengths from 410 − 865 nm. An additional objective is to discriminate aerosols from thin clouds. We quantify the performance of aerosol and ocean remote sensing products from the PolCube polarimeter instrument using the Microphysical Aerosol Properties from Polarimetry (MAPP) remote sensing retrieval algorithm. PolCube’s accurate and high-resolution aerosol-retrieval products will provide unique spatial and temporal coverage of the Earth that can be used synergistically with other instruments, such as the PACE (Plankton, Aerosols, Clouds and Ecosystems) and GEMS (Geostationary Environmental Monitoring Spectrometer) mission to improve air-quality forecasting. We present the PolCube-MAPP retrieval algorithm, which used optimal estimation and artificial intelligence, as well as multiple powerful inherent optical property look-up-tables for the Earth’s aerosol, cloud, and hydrosol particles. We estimate that PolCube can retrieve total aerosol optical depth at 555 nm (AOD555) within ±0.068, fine-mode AOD555 within ±0.078, and fine-mode single-scattering albedo within ±0.036, where all uncertainties are expressed as one standard deviation (1σ).

Snorre Stamnes↗

Observing System Simulation Experiments Exploring Potential Spaceborne Deployment Options for a Differential Absorption Radar Measuring Marine Surface Pressures

A new technology for remote measurements of marine surface pressure has been proposed, employing a V-band differential absorption radar and a radiometric temperature sounder to calculate the total column atmospheric mass. Observing System Simulation Experiments (OSSEs) are performed to evaluate the potential impact of Spaceborne Marine Surface Pressure (SMSP) on Numerical Weather Prediction. These experiments build on prior efforts (Privé, McLinden, et al., 2023, https://doi.org/10.16993/tellusa.3254), but with an updated version of the OSSE framework and with more sophisticated simulation of the SMSP observations and a longer experiment period. Several different instrument configurations are compared, including both scanning and non-scanning orbits. SMSP impacts are calculated for analysis quality and forecast skill, and a forecast sensitivity observation impact tool is employed to place SMSP observations in context with the global observing network. The effects of rain contamination on observation quality are explored. Different magnitudes of simulated SMSP observation error are tested in the context of data assimilation to show the range of potential behaviors. Overall, SMSP observations are found to be most beneficial in the southern hemisphere extratropics, with statistically significant forecast improvements for the first 72 hr of the forecast. A constellation of four non-scanning SMSP satellites is found to outperform a single scanning instrument with a 250 km wide swath.

N C Prive↗

Higher Throughput, Lower Cost Processing of Flexible Perovskite Solar Cells by Photonic Curing

The objectives of this SETO project are to explore whether photonic curing can be used to perform annealing in perovskite solar cell (PSC) fabrication, and if so, whether it can enable high-throughput PSC manufacturing. The successful outcome of the project will reduce manufacturing cost towards realizing the SETO goal of the Levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) $0.03/kWh by 2030. The project is a collaboration between Hsu’s group at the University of Texas at Dallas (UTD) and NovaCentrix, an Austin TX based company that pioneered the PulseForge® photonic curing tools and has expertise in applying this technology to printed electronics. Thin-film synthesis typically involves a thermal annealing step to convert from precursors to final material phases, to obtain the desired crystalline phase, or to improve materials structural or electrical properties. However, thermal annealing typically requires high temperatures that are incompatible with inexpensive plastic substrates and annealing times lasting tens-to-hundreds of minutes, making it incompatible with roll-to-roll (R2R) manufacturing at a desirable web speed. Photonic curing uses a flash Xe lamp to deliver short (20 µs to 100 ms) but high intensity (up to 50 kW/cm 2 ) pulses of broadband light (200 – 1500 nm) to the sample. It has been successfully applied to sinter printed metal nanoparticle inks into conductive patterns. This project aimed to extend the applications of photonic curing to convert halide perovskite films and transparent metal oxide transport layers. Despite the interruption by COVID-19, we have achieved significant accomplishments to establish photonic curing as a viable technology for the high-throughput manufacturing of PSCs. (1) We demonstrated that photonic curing can convert both metal oxide transport layer and halide perovskite absorber in the PSCs and successfully made flexible PSCs on Corning Willow glass® (WG)/ indium tin oxide (ITO) substrates without any thermal annealing steps. These photonically cured devices achieve performance comparable to conventional thermally annealed devices but were fabricated with a total processing time reduced by six orders of magnitude. We also show that photonic curing can achieve desirable web speed (up to 26 m/min) and large-area uniformity. (2) By establishing photonic curing processing phase spaces for the perovskite, we show that the longer pulses are more forgiving in small variation in the photonic curing conditions, making it more suitable for R2R manufacturing. (3) Our results clearly illustrated the importance of improving mechanical and optical properties of transparent electrodes on flexible substrates. (4) We also performed fundamental studies that elucidate the interactions between perovskite absorber and metal oxide transport layer that can undermine the PSC stability. Five refereed journal papers in top journals (ACS Energy Letters, npj Flexible Electronics, ACS Applied Energy Materials, Materials Advances, and Frontiers in Energy Research), one conference proceeding (PVSC-47), six conference presentations (PVSC and Materials Research Society meetings), and a Ph.D. dissertation (Trey B. Daunis) were produced under this project. Energy Materials Corporation (EMC) has forecast that with a 1.5 m wide web moving at a web speed of 30 m/min, R2R processing of PSC could provide up to 4 GW/year for a single R2R assembly line. Replacing thermal annealing with photonic curing, as demonstrated by the accomplishments of this project, is necessary to realize such an energy production goal.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

The effect of latent heat release on synoptic-to-planetary wave interactions and its implication for satellite observations: Theoretical modeling

The project objectives are to develop process models to investigate the interaction of planetary and synoptic-scale waves including the effects of latent heat release (precipitation), nonlinear dynamics, physical and boundary-layer processes, and large-scale topography; to determine the importance of latent heat release for temporal variability and time-mean behavior of planetary and synoptic-scale waves; to compare the model results with available observations of planetary and synoptic wave variability; and to assess the implications of the results for monitoring precipitation in oceanic-storm tracks by satellite observing systems. Researchers have utilized two different models for this project: a two-level quasi-geostrophic model to study intraseasonal variability, anomalous circulations and the seasonal cycle, and a 10-level, multi-wave primitive equation model to validate the two-level Q-G model and examine effects of convection, surface processes, and spherical geometry. It explicitly resolves several planetary and synoptic waves and includes specific humidity (as a predicted variable), moist convection, and large-scale precipitation. In the past year researchers have concentrated on experiments with the multi-level primitive equation model. The dynamical part of that model is similar to the spectral model used by the National Meteorological Center for medium-range forecasts. The model includes parameterizations of large-scale condensation and moist convection. To test the validity of results regarding the influence of convective precipitation, researchers can use either one of two different convective schemes in the model, a Kuo convective scheme or a modified Arakawa-Schubert scheme which includes downdrafts. By choosing one or the other scheme, they can evaluate the impact of the convective parameterization on the circulation. In the past year researchers performed a variety of initial-value experiments with the primitive-equation model. Using initial conditions typical of climatological winter conditions, they examined the behavior of synoptic and planetary waves growing in moist and dry environments. Surface conditions were representative of a zonally averaged ocean. They found that moist convection associated with baroclinic wave development was confined to the subtropics.

Branscome, Lee E.↗

The application of automated operations at the Institutional Processing Center

The JPL Institutional and Mission Computing Division, Communications, Computing and Network Services Section, with its mission contractor, OAO Corporation, have for some time been applying automation to the operation of JPL's Information Processing Center (IPC). Automation does not come in one easy to use package. Automation for a data processing center is made up of many different software and hardware products supported by trained personnel. The IPC automation effort formally began with console automation, and has since spiraled out to include production scheduling, data entry, report distribution, online reporting, failure reporting and resolution, documentation, library storage, and operator and user education, while requiring the interaction of multi-vendor and locally developed software. To begin the process, automation goals are determined. Then a team including operations personnel is formed to research and evaluate available options. By acquiring knowledge of current products and those in development, taking an active role in industry organizations, and learning of other data center's experiences, a forecast can be developed as to what direction technology is moving. With IPC management's approval, an implementation plan is developed and resources identified to test or implement new systems. As an example, IPC's new automated data entry system was researched by Data Entry, Production Control, and Advance Planning personnel. A proposal was then submitted to management for review. A determination to implement the new system was made and elements/personnel involved with the initial planning performed the implementation. The final steps of the implementation were educating data entry personnel in the areas effected and procedural changes necessary to the successful operation of the new system.

Barr, Thomas H.↗

Sensitivity of CONUS Summer Rainfall to the Selection of Cumulus Parameterization Schemes in NU-WRF Seasonal Simulations

This study investigates the sensitivity of daily rainfall rates in regional seasonal simulations over the contiguous United States (CONUS) to different cumulus parameterization schemes. Daily rainfall fields were simulated at 24-km resolution using the NASA-Unified Weather Research and Forecasting (NU-WRF) Model for June-August 2000. Four cumulus parameterization schemes and two options for shallow cumulus components in a specific scheme were tested. The spread in the domain-mean rainfall rates across the parameterization schemes was generally consistent between the entire CONUS and most subregions. The selection of the shallow cumulus component in a specific scheme had more impact than that of the four cumulus parameterization schemes. Regional variability in the performance of each scheme was assessed by calculating optimally weighted ensembles that minimize full root-mean-square errors against reference datasets. The spatial pattern of the seasonally averaged rainfall was insensitive to the selection of cumulus parameterization over mountainous regions because of the topographical pattern constraint, so that the simulation errors were mostly attributed to the overall bias there. In contrast, the spatial patterns over the Great Plains regions as well as the temporal variation over most parts of the CONUS were relatively sensitive to cumulus parameterization selection. Overall, adopting a single simulation result was preferable to generating a better ensemble for the seasonally averaged daily rainfall simulation, as long as their overall biases had the same positive or negative sign. However, an ensemble of multiple simulation results was more effective in reducing errors in the case of also considering temporal variation.

Iguchi, Takamichi↗

Coupled Aerosol-Chemistry Simulations of the January 2022 Eruptions of Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha’apai in the NASA GEOS Earth System Model

The January 2022 eruptions of the underwater Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha’apai volcano injected more than 100 Tg of water vapor and approximately 0.5 Tg of sulfur dioxide into the stratosphere. Injected materials reached as high as ~55 km in altitude, while the main plume from the eruption travelled west over Australia and the Indian Ocean between about 20 – 30 km altitude. We investigate the transport and the impact of the erupted materials in coupled aerosol-chemistry simulations performed with the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) Earth system model. A sulfur mechanism introduced into the Global Modeling Initiative (GMI) stratospheric-tropospheric chemistry package allows for an interactive simulation of the water vapor-chemistry impacts, and the large water vapor perturbation results in rapid conversion of sulfur dioxide to sulfate aerosol in our aerosol mechanism. We report on the results of a multi-year ensemble of simulations performed with this system that include a control ensemble (no eruption), a water vapor-only injection ensemble, and a water vapor and sulfur dioxide injection ensemble. Simulations of the near-field aerosol and chemistry transport are compared to available measurements from OMPS-LP, OMPS-NM, CALIOP, MLS, and other sensors. The extended impact of the volcanic materials on the stratospheric composition and chemistry over the next several years is further investigated in forecast simulations.

Peter Colarco↗

Collaborative Research: Advancing Arctic Climate Projection Capability at Seasonal to Decadal Scales (Final Technical Report)

The Regional Arctic System Model (RASM) at process resolving configurations has been used to (i) advance understanding of physical processes and feedbacks involved in Arctic amplification and (ii) understand and potentially reduce uncertainty in prediction of arctic climate change at seasonal to decadal scales. RASM consists the atmosphere (Weather and Research Forecasting model, WRF), ocean (Parallel Ocean Program, POP), sea ice (CICE), land hydrology (Variable Infiltration Capacity model, VIC), river routing scheme (RVIC), marine biogeochemistry components and the coupling framework (CPL7). Its domain is pan-Arctic, with the atmosphere and land components configured on a 50-km or 25-km grid and four configurations of the ocean and sea ice components: 1/12°(~9.3km) or 1/48°(~2.4km) and 45 or 60 vertical layers. These RASM configurations have been motivated by the emerging exascale capability for high performance computing to improve model fidelity. The dynamical downscaling of reanalysis allows comparison of RASM results with observations in place and time to: (i) advance system level understanding of physical processes and coupling involved in an event, (ii) optimize model parameter space, (iii) diagnose and reduce model biases and (iv) produce realistic and consistent across all the components initial conditions for predictions and predictability studies, which are all unique capabilities not available in global Earth System Models (ESMs). An evaluation of RASM 1.0 (Cassano et al. 2017) revealed that it had a cold bias over the oceans and a warm bias over land areas due largely to cloud and radiation biases in the model, with too little cloud cover simulated over land and too much cloud cover simulated over sub-polar oceans. This study has motivated an upgrade to WRF version 3.7.1 in RASM and allowed for the inclusion of the radiative impact of convective clouds. A variety of atmospheric physics parameterizations were evaluated against observations (e.g. data from the Arctic Clouds in Summer Experiment (ACSE); Sedlar et al. 2020) to identify an optimal suite of WRF physics options in RASM. The RASM with the optimized WRF physics were used to study the impact of strong mesoscale winds over the ocean around the southern tip of Greenland (DuVivier and Cassano 2016) and their impact on oceanic convection (DuVivier et al. 2017a). Data from the PolarWinds field campaign were used to evaluate WRF boundary layer physics and resolution impacts on the simulation of a Greenland barrier wind event (DuVivier et al. 2017b). The RVIC streamflow routing model has been implemented in RASM to realistically represent high-resolution streamflow processes (Hamman et al. 2017) and to couple the land buoyancy fluxes to the ocean. The RASM-RVIC high-resolution data set of all coastal freshwater fluxes for the Arctic drainage basin and surrounding areas for 1979-2014 was published as a separate product (https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.293037). The fidelity of atmospheric momentum transfer to and the response of polar marine Ekman layer in RASM and Community Earth System Model (CESM) was investigated by Roberts et al. (2015). The increased frequency of oceanic flux exchange in CESM, following the RASM guidance, caused a considerable increase in the median inertial ice speed across the Southern Ocean and parts of the Arctic. A comprehensive evaluation of the RASM1.0 atmosphere-ocean-sea ice-land interface was completed by Brunke et al. (2018). RASM was also demonstrated for its capability to simulate extreme events in agreement with observations in space and time (Lee et al. submitted). In particular, the development of three open water events, known as polynyas, have been simulated north of Greenland in February of 2011, 2017 and 2018, in agreement with satellite observations for the past four decades. The optimized RASM sea ice results have been favorably evaluated against satellite observations and a subset of eleven CMIP6 models (Watts et al. submitted). In a complementary project, Jin et al. (2018) have shown that RASM with higher-resolution and new sea-ice processes contributed to lower model errors in sea-ice conditions, concentrations of nutrients and ice algae, in comparison to results from the coarse-resolution (1°) CESM. In two other complementary studies, RASM results were used (i) to explain areas of concentrated use by bowhead whales, the seasonal progression in the use, and the physical environment within those areas (Citta et al. 2015) and (ii) for a synthesis of fall bowhead whales distribution and migration in the Bering-Chukchi-Beaufort (BCB) Sea to investigate whale movements and feeding to the local ocean hydrography and currents (Citta et al. 2018). However, the multi-decadal output from the CESM Large Ensemble yielded unrealistic forcing. Instead, the shorter NCEP CFSv2 9-month forecasts were successfully tested and afforded an increased ensemble size (~30) to demonstrate gains of dynamical downscaling at sub-seasonal to intra-annual time scales. The improved model physics and coupling among RASM model components have yielded more realistic representation of the sea ice cover and consistent across all model components initial conditions. Consequently, RASM demonstrates significant gains compared to simulation of sea ice in the NCEP reanalysis. In addition, RASM 6-month ensemble forecasts yield very realistic sea ice distribution, which demonstrates both significant gains of dynamical downscaling and the continued impact of the initial conditions on forecasts out to 6 months (https://nps.edu/web/rasm/predictions). A follow up study using RASM for dynamical downscaling of the more realistic CESM initialized Decadal Prediction Large Ensemble output is currently ongoing as part of the DOE RGMA HiLAT-RASM project.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Automated and highly parallelized Bayesian optimization scheme for direct drive fusion experiments on OMEGA

Finding the optimal implosion design on existing experimental facilities for inertial confinement fusion requires an exhaustive search of the vast design parameter space. This is infeasible both with experiments and with simulations. Consequently, a large fraction of the experimentally realizable design space remains unexplored, and new design schemes are challenging to optimize in a reasonable time frame. On the OMEGA laser facility, predictive machine learning models have been developed to accurately forecast the result of an experiment using only inexpensive simulations and the large dataset of prior experimental data. However, the full design space remains vast enough to be unassailable with simple optimization techniques. Here we develop an automated and optimally parallel Bayesian optimization algorithm that can entirely optimize the target and pulse shape of a direct-drive ICF implosion under a given design paradigm. We use this algorithm to find a markedly improved design for the performance implosions on OMEGA that is predicted to hydroequivalently scale to ignition at 2.15 MJ.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Potential Formation Damage: An Integrated Reservoir Characterization Study of the Naturally Fractured Carbonate Middle Duperow Formation at the Kevin Dome, Montana

In this study, we integrate geologic and engineering data of a naturally fractured carbonate reservoir at the Kevin Dome, Montana. Well test data are correlated with core description, geochemical and lithology study to determine the flow behavior and communication within the injection test interval and to the surrounding area. Based on a dual-continuum geologic model, numerical brine injection simulations are carried out to validate the interpretation results from our well test analytical models and forecast the probability of CO 2 injection success using current reservoir properties. As a result, our well test analytical models as well as lithology/core description suggest that fluid flow may be mainly restricted to the injection interval and the assumption of radial (horizontal) flow may be appropriate. The well test models also indicate that there is potentially formation damage with a positive skin factor although prior to brine injection well tests, well stimulation through acid treatment was performed. Our numerical simulation results appear to confirm this formation damage by showing additional pressure buildup in the injection data during later test periods. To explain this, acid may have dissolved dolomite then dolomite or calcite may have been formed again further into the matrix/fracture system. Another possible explanation is mechanical clogging of the fractures due to acid dissolving dolomite and dislodging fine grains. Our work also predicts that if no additional well stimulation is performed, the project will have a lower probability of successfully injecting 1 million tons of CO 2 into the Middle Duperow formation over 4 years.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Dynamical Downscaling of Earth System Model Data for Energy System Analysis

Assessing energy resources (e.g., solar, wind, and hydro) under future scenarios requires datasets with sufficient spatial and temporal detail to capture variability and extreme events. While global-scale Earth System Model (ESM) projections are widely used, their coarse resolution limits direct application to regional energy system analyses. Dynamical downscaling offers a robust approach to generate physically consistent, fine-scale datasets that better represent local atmospheric processes impacting energy resources. In this work, we present a two-stage approach for producing high-resolution historical and future projections over the contiguous United States (CONUS). First, we optimize the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model configuration for energy-relevant variables - solar irradiance, wind speed, and precipitation - by conducting ERA5-driven simulations at 8-km and 28-km resolution. Multiple physics schemes and model configurations within the WRF are evaluated against observational datasets including the National Solar Radiation Database (NSRDB), the Parameter-elevation Regressions on Independent Slopes Model (PRISM), and the Stage IV multi-radar/multi-sensor precipitation product for the CONUS domain. Using the best-performing configuration, we dynamically downscale MPI-ESM1-2-HR simulations for 2000-2060 under SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios at 4-km spatial and hourly temporal resolution. This presentation will provide a comprehensive analysis of the results from multiple numerical experiments and high-resolution ESM projections. In addition, we will discuss potential applications of our high-resolution datasets within the energy sector and outline future research avenues dedicated to evaluating how extreme weather events influence system performance and resilience.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Ra: The Sun for Science and Humanity

To guide the development of the Ra Strategic Framework, we defined scientific and applications objectives. For our primary areas of scientific interest, we choose the corona, the solar wind, the Sun's effect on the Earth, and solar theory and model development. For secondary areas of scientific interest, we selected sunspots, the solar constant, the Sun's gravitational field, helioseismology and the galactic cosmic rays. We stress the importance of stereoscopic imaging, observations at high spatial, spectral, and temporal resolutions, as well as of long duration measurements. Further exploration of the Sun's polar regions is also important, as shown already by the Ulysses mission. From an applications perspective, we adopted three broad objectives that would derive complementary inputs for the Strategic Framework. These were to identify and investigate: possible application spin-offs from science missions, possible solar-terrestrial missions dedicated to a particular application, and possible future applications that require technology development. The Sun can be viewed as both a source of resources and of threats. Our principal applications focus was that of threat mitigation, by examining ways to improve solar threat monitoring and early warning systems. We compared these objectives to the mission objectives of past, current, and planned international solar missions. Past missions (1962-1980) seem to have been focused on improvement of scientific knowledge, using multiple instrument spacecraft. A ten year gap followed this period, during which the results from previous missions were analyzed and solar study programmes were prepared in international organizations. Current missions (1990-1996) focus on particular topics such as the corona, solar flares, and coronal mass ejections. In planned missions, Sun/Earth interactions and environmental effects of solar activity are becoming more important. The corona is the centre of interest of almost all planned missions. It seems that no international long-term strategy has yet been adopted. For these plans the number of necessary future missions can be reduced and the onboard instrumentation can be optimized by performing a comparative analysis. The study of the corona must be done from different observing locations, orbits closer to the Sun, and by different means. The Cluster mission replacement is in progress; however, if the replacement is not implemented, the ISTP programme will fade after 1998. Furthermore, the physics of the Sun's interior should be emphasized more in the Mid- and Far-Term programmes. Finally, more emphasis should be placed on monitoring space weather and forecasting Sun/Earth interactions.

Source record↗

Bridging Empirical and Physical Approaches for Landslide Monitoring and Early Warning

Rainfall-triggered landslides typically occur and are evaluated at local scales, using slope-stability models to calculate coincident changes in driving and resisting forces at the hillslope level in order to anticipate slope failures. Over larger areas, detailed high resolution landslide modeling is often infeasible due to difficulties in quantifying the complex interaction between rainfall infiltration and surface materials as well as the dearth of available in situ soil and rainfall estimates and accurate landslide validation data. This presentation will discuss how satellite precipitation and surface information can be applied within a landslide hazard assessment framework to improve landslide monitoring and early warning by considering two disparate approaches to landslide hazard assessment: an empirical landslide forecasting algorithm and a physical slope-stability model. The goal of this research is to advance near real-time landslide hazard assessment and early warning at larger spatial scales. This is done by employing high resolution surface and precipitation information within a probabilistic framework to provide more physically-based grounding to empirical landslide triggering thresholds. The empirical landslide forecasting tool, running in near real-time at http://trmm.nasa.gov, considers potential landslide activity at the global scale and relies on Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) precipitation data and surface products to provide a near real-time picture of where landslides may be triggered. The physical approach considers how rainfall infiltration on a hillslope affects the in situ hydro-mechanical processes that may lead to slope failure. Evaluation of these empirical and physical approaches are performed within the Land Information System (LIS), a high performance land surface model processing and data assimilation system developed within the Hydrological Sciences Branch at NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center. LIS provides the capabilities to quantify uncertainty from model inputs and calculate probabilistic estimates for slope failures. Results indicate that remote sensing data can provide many of the spatiotemporal requirements for accurate landslide monitoring and early warning; however, higher resolution precipitation inputs will help to better identify small-scale precipitation forcings that contribute to significant landslide triggering. Future missions, such as the Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) mission will provide more frequent and extensive estimates of precipitation at the global scale, which will serve as key inputs to significantly advance the accuracy of landslide hazard assessment, particularly over larger spatial scales.

Kirschbaum, Dalia↗

Long Short-Term Memory Networks for Pattern Recognition of Synthetical Complete Earthquake Catalog

Exploring the spatiotemporal distribution of earthquake activity, especially earthquake migration of fault systems, can greatly to understand the basic mechanics of earthquakes and the assessment of earthquake risk. By establishing a three-dimensional strike-slip fault model, to derive the stress response and fault slip along the fault under regional stress conditions. Our study helps to create a long-term, complete earthquake catalog. We modelled Long-Short Term Memory (LSTM) networks for pattern recognition of the synthetical earthquake catalog. The performance of the models was compared using the mean-square error (MSE). Our results showed clearly the application of LSTM showed a meaningful result of 0.08% in the MSE values. Our best model can predict the time and magnitude of the earthquakes with a magnitude greater than Mw = 6.5 with a similar clustering period. These results showed conclusively that applying LSTM in a spatiotemporal series prediction provides a potential application in the study of earthquake mechanics and forecasting of major earthquake events.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

A Review of Distributed Electric Propulsion Concepts for Air Vehicle Technology

The continuous, yet incremental performance gains in high-efficiency gas turbine engines over the last eight decades has enabled passengers to travel long distances at high speeds. Modern commercial jet transports are so common that most passengers traveling by air today take the innovative developments of jet engine technologies for granted. However, the ever-increasing demands for travel in the 21st century has also brought an increased awareness of the energy and environmental concerns associated with aviation. Due to the forecasted limited supply of petroleum-based fuel sources and the global warming potential associated with emissions of traditional aircraft propulsion systems, the need for environmentally-responsible solutions in aircraft technology has been recognized as a priority in the development of future aircraft configurations.

Hyun Dae Kim↗