Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “maturation”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 1,387 records · Page 77
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2026

Extremely Metal-poor Galaxies in DESI DR1: Connections to Galaxies in the Early Universe

Extremely metal-poor galaxies (XMPGs), defined as having metallicities below 10% of the solar value, are considered possible local analogs to primordial systems and offer a unique window into early galaxy evolution. This study presents a large-scale search for XMPGs using data from the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument Data Release 1, systematically evaluating their resemblance to high-redshift galaxies. From a parent sample of more than 14 million galaxies, we identify 662 (556 new) confirmed XMPGs and 763 (666 new) high-quality candidates via the direct T$_{e}$ method. Our results reveal that XMPGs follow a distinct star-forming main sequence (SFMS) that is elevated and shallower than that of the comparing star-forming galaxies. Notably, at higher stellar masses (M$_{⋆}$ > 10$^{7.5}$M$_{⊙}$), the XMPG SFMS converges with the sequence observed in high-redshift galaxies by the James Webb Space Telescope, indicating that mature XMPGs sustain star formation rates comparable to their primordial counterparts. Furthermore, XMPGs consistently deviate below the local fundamental metallicity relation, mirroring high-redshift galaxy behavior. These findings demonstrate that XMPGs not only exhibit low metallicities but also preserve scaling relations characteristic of the early Universe, confirming their potential value as local laboratories for studying early galaxy formation processes.

Sui, Jipeng [Beijing Observ.; Beijing, GUCAS] (ORC↗
DOE OSTI2023

Formulating the r-mode Problem for Slowly Rotating Neutron Stars

We revisit the problem of inertial r-modes in stratified stars, drawing on a more precise description of the composition stratification in a mature neutron star. The results highlight issues with the traditional approach to the problem, leading us to rethink the computational strategy for the r-modes of nonbarotropic neutron stars. We outline two strategies for dealing with the problem. For moderate to slowly rotating neutron stars the only viable alternative may be to approach the problem numerically from the outset, while a meaningful slow-rotation calculation can be carried out for the fastest known spinning stars (which may be close to being driven unstable by the emission of gravitational waves). We demonstrate that the latter approach leads to a problem close, but not identical, to that for barotropic inertial modes. We also suggest that these reformulations of the problem likely resolve the long-standing problem of singular behavior associated with a corotation point in rotating relativistic neutron stars. This issue needs to be resolved in order to guide future gravitational-wave searches.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2023

QUOTAS: A New Research Platform for the Data-driven Discovery of Black Holes

We present QUOTAS, a novel research platform for the data-driven investigation of supermassive black hole (SMBH) populations. While SMBH data—observations and simulations—have grown in complexity and abundance, our computational environments and tools have not matured commensurately to exhaust opportunities for discovery. To explore the BH, host galaxy, and parent dark matter halo connection—in this pilot version—we assemble and colocate the high-redshift, z > 3 quasar population alongside simulated data at the same cosmic epochs. As a first demonstration of the utility of QUOTAS, we investigate correlations between observed Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS) quasars and their hosts with those derived from simulations. Leveraging machine-learning algorithms (ML), to expand simulation volumes, we show that halo properties extracted from smaller dark-matter-only simulation boxes successfully replicate halo populations in larger boxes. Next, using the Illustris-TNG300 simulation that includes baryonic physics as the training set, we populate the larger LEGACY Expanse dark-matter-only box with quasars, and show that observed SDSS quasar occupation statistics are accurately replicated. First science results from QUOTAS comparing colocated observational and ML-trained simulated data at z3 are presented. QUOTAS demonstrates the power of ML, in analyzing and exploring large data sets, while also offering a unique opportunity to interrogate theoretical assumptions that underpin accretion and feedback models. QUOTAS and all related materials are publicly available at the Google Kaggle platform. (The full data set—observational data and simulation data—are available at: https://www.kaggle.com/ and the codes are available at:https://www.kaggle.com/datasets/quotasplatform/quotas)

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2025

Enabling Robust Exoplanet Atmospheric Retrievals with Gaussian Processes

Atmospheric retrievals are essential tools for interpreting exoplanet transmission and eclipse spectra, enabling quantitative constraints on the chemical composition, aerosol properties, and thermal structure of planetary atmospheres. The James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) offers unprecedented spectral precision, resolution, and wavelength coverage, unlocking transformative insights into the formation, evolution, climate, and potential habitability of planetary systems. However, this opportunity is accompanied by challenges: modeling assumptions and unaccounted-for noise or signal sources can bias retrieval outcomes and their interpretation. To address these limitations, we introduce a Gaussian process (GP)-aided atmospheric retrieval framework that flexibly accounts for unmodeled features and correlated noise in exoplanet spectra. We validate this method on synthetic JWST observations, and show that GP-aided retrievals reduce bias in inferred abundances and better capture model–data mismatches than traditional approaches. We also introduce the concept of mean squared error to quantify the trade-off between bias and variance, arguing that this metric more accurately reflects retrieval performance than bias alone. We then reanalyze the NIRISS/SOSS JWST transmission spectrum of WASP-96 b, finding that GP-aided retrievals yield broader constraints on CO 2 and H 2 O, possibly alleviating tension between previous retrieval results and equilibrium predictions. Our GP framework provides precise and accurate constraints while highlighting regions where models fail to explain the data. As JWST matures and future facilities come online, a deeper understanding of the limitations of both data and models will be essential, and GP-enabled retrievals like the one presented here offer a principled path forward.

Rotman, Yoav [Arizona State Univ., Tempe, AZ (Unit↗
DOE OSTI2025

CMB-S4: Foreground-cleaning Pipeline Comparison for Measuring Primordial Gravitational Waves

We compare multiple foreground-cleaning pipelines for estimating the tensor-to-scalar ratio, r, using simulated maps of the planned CMB-S4 experiment within the context of the South Pole Deep Patch. To evaluate robustness, we analyze bias and uncertainty on r across various foreground suites using map-based simulations. The foreground-cleaning methods include: a parametric maximum likelihood approach applied to auto- and cross-power spectra between frequency maps; a map-based parametric maximum-likelihood method; and a harmonic-space internal linear combination using frequency maps. We summarize the conceptual basis of each method to highlight their similarities and differences. To better probe the impact of foreground residuals, we implement an iterative internal delensing step, leveraging a map-based pipeline to generate a lensing B-mode template from the large aperture telescope frequency maps. Our results show that the performance of the three approaches is comparable for simple and intermediate-complexity foregrounds, with σ(r) ranging from 3–5 ×10 −4 . However, biases at the 1σ–2σ level appear when analyzing more complex forms of foreground emission. By extending the baseline pipelines to marginalize over foreground residuals, we demonstrate that contamination can be reduced to within statistical uncertainties, albeit with a pipeline-dependent impact on σ(r), which translates to a detection significance between 2σ and 4σ for an input value of r = 0.003. These findings suggest varying levels of maturity among the tested pipelines, with the auto- and cross-spectra-based approach demonstrating the best stability and overall performance. Moreover, given the extremely low noise levels, mutual validation of independent foreground-cleaning pipelines is essential to ensure the robustness of any potential detection.

astronomy data analysis↗
DOE OSTI2020

The Athena++ Adaptive Mesh Refinement Framework: Design and Magnetohydrodynamic Solvers

The design and implementation of a new framework for adaptive mesh refinement calculations are described. It is intended primarily for applications in astrophysical fluid dynamics, but its flexible and modular design enables its use for a wide variety of physics. The framework works with both uniform and nonuniform grids in Cartesian and curvilinear coordinate systems. It adopts a dynamic execution model based on a simple design called a "task list" that improves parallel performance by overlapping communication and computation, simplifies the inclusion of a diverse range of physics, and even enables multiphysics models involving different physics in different regions of the calculation. We describe physics modules implemented in this framework for both nonrelativistic and relativistic magnetohydrodynamics (MHD). These modules adopt mature and robust algorithms originally developed for the Athena MHD code and incorporate new extensions: support for curvilinear coordinates, higher-order time integrators, more realistic physics such as a general equation of state, and diffusion terms that can be integrated with super-time-stepping algorithms. The modules show excellent performance and scaling, with well over 80% parallel efficiency on over half a million threads. The source code has been made publicly available.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Fabrication of 4H-SiC Low Gain Avalanche Detectors (LGADs)

Low gain avalanche detectors (LGADs) offer high temporal resolution for high energy particle detection, which is critical for next generation experiments in hadron colliders. While silicon LGADs (Si-LGADs) have rapidly matured in the last decade, research into silicon carbide (SiC) LGADs has only recently begun. By accounting for fundamental differences in material properties and fabrication processes, we present a prototype device design and process flow for 4H-SiC LGADs with etch-based isolation. Critical steps of the process flow and their results are discussed, including plasma etching, passivation, and the formation of low resistivity contacts. Electrical characterization (I-V, C-V) shows sufficient depletion of the device structure to demonstrate low-gain charge carrier multiplication.

High Energy Physics↗
DOE OSTI2026

Thermodynamics of Bimetallic Joints between Titanium and Tantalum Produced by Laser Powder Bed Fusion

Laser powder bed fusion (LBPF) is currently the most mature metal additive manufacturing (AM) technology. While it does not have the same flexibility as directed energy deposition techniques to produce compositional gradients, LPBF can still be used to generate bimetallic parts by depositing one metal on a build plate made of another. Here, in this study, we print combinations of Ti-6Al-4V with Ta and characterize defects that occur at the interface. We use thermodynamic modeling to explain the formation of keyhole porosity and solidification cracks when Ta is built on a Ti baseplate, and the lack of defects when the materials are reversed. By understanding the mechanisms that lead to defect formation, the methodology demonstrated here can be applied to other material systems to efficiently design bimetallic LPBF processes.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2022

Influences of an entrainment–mixing parameterization on numerical simulations of cumulus and stratocumulus clouds

Abstract. Different entrainment–mixing processes can occur in clouds; however, a homogeneous mixing mechanism is often implicitly assumed in most commonly used microphysics schemes. Here, we first present a new entrainment–mixing parameterization that uses the grid mean relative humidity without requiring the relative humidity of the entrained air. Then, the parameterization is implemented in a microphysics scheme in a large eddy simulation model, and sensitivity experiments are conducted to compare the new parameterization with the default homogeneous entrainment–mixing parameterization. The results indicate that the new entrainment–mixing parameterization has a larger impact on the number concentration, volume mean radius, and cloud optical depth in the stratocumulus case than in the cumulus case. This is because inhomogeneous and homogeneous mixing mechanisms dominate in the stratocumulus and cumulus cases, respectively, which is mainly due to the larger turbulence dissipation rate in the cumulus case. Because stratocumulus clouds break up during the dissipation stage to form cumulus clouds, the effects of this new entrainment–mixing parameterization during the stratocumulus dissipation stage are between those during the stratocumulus mature stage and the cumulus case. A large aerosol concentration can enhance the effects of this new entrainment–mixing parameterization by decreasing the cloud droplet size and evaporation timescale. The results of this new entrainment–mixing parameterization with grid mean relative humidity are validated by the use of a different entrainment–mixing parameterization that uses parameterized entrained air properties. This study sheds new light on the improvement of entrainment–mixing parameterizations in models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Seasonal controls on isolated convective storm drafts, precipitation intensity, and life cycle as observed during GoAmazon2014/5

Abstract. Isolated deep convective cloud life cycle and seasonal changes in storm properties are observed for daytime events during the US Department of Energy (DOE) Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Green Ocean Amazon Experiment (GoAmazon2014/5) campaign to understand controls on storm behavior. Storm life cycles are documented using surveillance radar from initiation through maturity and dissipation. Vertical air velocity estimates are obtained from radar wind profiler overpasses, with the storm environment informed by radiosondes. Dry-season storm conditions favored reduced morning shallow cloud coverage and larger low-level convective available potential energy (CAPE) than wet-season counterparts. The typical dry-season storm reached its peak intensity and size earlier in its life cycle compared with wet-season cells. These cells exhibited updrafts in core precipitation regions (Z>35 dBZ) to above the melting level as well as persistent downdrafts aloft within precipitation adjacent to their cores. Moreover, dry-season cells recorded more intense updrafts to earlier life cycle stages as well as a higher incidence of strong updrafts (i.e., >5 m s−1) at low levels. In contrast, wet-season storms were longer-lived and featured a higher incidence of moderate (i.e., 2–5 m s−1) updrafts aloft. These storms also favored a shift in their most intense properties to later life cycle stages. Strong downdrafts were less frequent within wet-season cells aloft, indicating a potential systematic difference in draft behaviors, as linked to graupel loading and other factors between the seasons. Results from a stochastic parcel model suggest that dry-season cells may expect stronger updrafts at low levels because of larger low-level CAPE in the dry season. Wet-season cells anticipate strong updrafts aloft because of larger free-tropospheric relative humidity and reduced entrainment-driven dilution. Enhanced dry-season downdrafts are partially attributed to increased evaporation, dry-air entrainment mixing, and negative buoyancy in regions adjacent to sampled dry-season cores.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Shallow- and deep-convection characteristics in the greater Houston, Texas, area using cell tracking methodology

The convective lifecycle, from initiation to maturity and dissipation, is driven by a combination of kinematic, thermodynamic, microphysical, and radiative processes that are strongly coupled and variable in time and space. Weather radars have been traditionally used to provide various convective-cloud characteristics. Here, we analyzed climatological convective-cell radar characteristics to obtain and assess the diurnal cycles of three convective-cell types – shallow, modest deep, and vigorous deep convective cells – that formed in the greater Houston area, using the National Weather Service radar from Houston, Texas, and a multi-cell identification and tracking algorithm. The examined dataset spans 4 years (2018–2021) and covers the warm-season months (June to September) in those years. The analysis showed clear diurnal cycles in cell initiation (CI) consistent with the sea breeze circulation and showed diurnal and normalized lifetime relationships in cell evolution parameters (e.g., maximum reflectivity, echo-top height, Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite-16 (GOES-16) channel 13 brightness temperature, and the height of maximum reflectivity). The cell evolution is well represented by relationships between (1) the height and value of the maximum radar reflectivity, (2) the minimum GOES-16 channel 13 brightness temperature and the maximum vertically integrated liquid, (3) the maximum reflectivity and columnar-average reflectivity, and (4) the echo-top ascent rate and cell lifetime. The relationships presented herein help to identify the cell lifecycle stages such as early shallow convection, vigorous vertical development, anvil development, and convective core dissipation. GOES-16 Aerosol Optical Depth values are also used as a proxy for cell initiation aerosol concentrations to investigate any potential relationships between initiation location and aerosol concentration. Overall, no significant relationships between initiation location and aerosol concentration were found for the three cell types investigated, but there are some minor differences in the pre-CI aerosol optical depth for vigorous deep convective cells.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Strong temporal variation in treefall and branchfall rates in a tropical forest is related to extreme rainfall: results from 5 years of monthly drone data for a 50 ha plot

Abstract. A mechanistic understanding of how tropical-tree mortality responds to climate variation is urgently needed to predict how tropical-forest carbon pools will respond to anthropogenic global change, which is altering the frequency and intensity of storms, droughts, and other climate extremes in tropical forests. We used 5 years of approximately monthly drone-acquired RGB (red–green–blue) imagery for 50 ha of mature tropical forest on Barro Colorado Island, Panama, to quantify spatial structure; temporal variation; and climate correlates of canopy disturbances, i.e., sudden and major drops in canopy height due to treefalls, branchfalls, or the collapse of standing dead trees. Canopy disturbance rates varied strongly over time and were higher in the wet season, even though wind speeds were lower in the wet season. The strongest correlate of monthly variation in canopy disturbance rates was the frequency of extreme rainfall events. The size distribution of canopy disturbances was best fit by a Weibull function and was close to a power function for sizes above 25 m2. Treefalls accounted for 74 % of the total area and 52 % of the total number of canopy disturbances in treefalls and branchfalls combined. We hypothesize that extremely high rainfall is a good predictor because it is an indicator of storms having high wind speeds, as well as saturated soils that increase uprooting risk. These results demonstrate the utility of repeat drone-acquired data for quantifying forest canopy disturbance rates at fine temporal and spatial resolutions over large areas, thereby enabling robust tests of how temporal variation in disturbance relates to climate drivers. Further insights could be gained by integrating these canopy observations with high-frequency measurements of wind speed and soil moisture in mechanistic models to better evaluate proximate drivers and with focal tree observations to quantify the links to tree mortality and woody turnover.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

A global database of dissolved organic matter (DOM) concentration measurements in coastal waters (CoastDOM v1)

Abstract. Measurements of dissolved organic carbon (DOC), nitrogen (DON), and phosphorus (DOP) concentrations are used to characterize the dissolved organic matter (DOM) pool and are important components of biogeochemical cycling in the coastal ocean. Here, we present the first edition of a global database (CoastDOM v1; available at https://doi.org/10.1594/PANGAEA.964012, Lønborg et al., 2023) compiling previously published and unpublished measurements of DOC, DON, and DOP in coastal waters. These data are complemented by hydrographic data such as temperature and salinity and, to the extent possible, other biogeochemical variables (e.g. chlorophyll a, inorganic nutrients) and the inorganic carbon system (e.g. dissolved inorganic carbon and total alkalinity). Overall, CoastDOM v1 includes observations of concentrations from all continents. However, most data were collected in the Northern Hemisphere, with a clear gap in DOM measurements from the Southern Hemisphere. The data included were collected from 1978 to 2022 and consist of 62 338 data points for DOC, 20 356 for DON, and 13 533 for DOP. The number of measurements decreases progressively in the sequence DOC > DON > DOP, reflecting both differences in the maturity of the analytical methods and the greater focus on carbon cycling by the aquatic science community. The global database shows that the average DOC concentration in coastal waters (average ± standard deviation (SD): 182±314 µmol C L−1; median: 103 µmol C L−1) is 13-fold higher than the average coastal DON concentration (13.6±30.4 µmol N L−1; median: 8.0 µmol N L−1), which is itself 39-fold higher than the average coastal DOP concentration (0.34±1.11 µmol P L−1; median: 0.18 µmol P L−1). This dataset will be useful for identifying global spatial and temporal patterns in DOM and will help facilitate the reuse of DOC, DON, and DOP data in studies aimed at better characterizing local biogeochemical processes; closing nutrient budgets; estimating carbon, nitrogen, and phosphorous pools; and establishing a baseline for modelling future changes in coastal waters.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

The pantropical response of soil moisture to El Niño

Abstract. The 2015–2016 El Niño event ranks as one of the most severe on record in terms of the magnitude and extent of sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies generated in the tropical Pacific Ocean. Corresponding global impacts on the climate were expected to rival, or even surpass, those of the 1997–1998 severe El Niño event, which had SST anomalies that were similar in size. However, the 2015–2016 event failed to meet expectations for hydrologic change in many areas, including those expected to receive well above normal precipitation. To better understand how climate anomalies during an El Niño event impact soil moisture, we investigate changes in soil moisture in the humid tropics (between ±25∘) during the three most recent super El Niño events of 1982–1983, 1997–1998 and 2015–2016, using data from the Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS). First, we use in situ soil moisture observations obtained from 16 sites across five continents to validate and bias-correct estimates from GLDAS (r2=0.54). Next, we apply a k-means cluster analysis to the soil moisture estimates during the El Niño mature phase, resulting in four groups of clustered data. The strongest and most consistent decreases in soil moisture occur in the Amazon basin and maritime southeastern Asia, while the most consistent increases occur over eastern Africa. In addition, we compare changes in soil moisture to both precipitation and evapotranspiration, which showed a lack of agreement in the direction of change between these variables and soil moisture most prominently in the southern Amazon basin, the Sahel and mainland southeastern Asia. Our results can be used to improve estimates of spatiotemporal differences in El Niño impacts on soil moisture in tropical hydrology and ecosystem models at multiple scales.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Current status and grand challenges for small wind turbine technology

While modern wind turbines have become by far the largest rotating machines on Earth with further upscaling planned for the future, a renewed interest in small wind turbines (SWTs) is fostering energy transition and smart grid development. Small machines have traditionally not received the same level of aerodynamic refinement as their larger counterparts, resulting in lower efficiency, lower capacity factors, and therefore a higher cost of energy. In an effort to reduce this gap, research programs are developing worldwide. With this background, the scope of the present study is 2-fold. In the first part of this paper, an overview of the current status of the technology is presented in terms of technical maturity, diffusion, and cost. The second part of the study proposes five grand challenges that are thought to be key to fostering the development of small wind turbine technology in the near future, i.e. (1) improving energy conversion of modern SWTs through better design and control, especially in the case of turbulent wind; (2) better predicting long-term turbine performance with limited resource measurements and proving reliability; (3) improving the economic viability of small wind energy; (4) facilitating the contribution of SWTs to the energy demand and electrical system integration; (5) fostering engagement, social acceptance, and deployment for global distributed wind markets. To tackle these challenges, a series of unknowns and gaps are first identified and discussed. Based on them, improvement areas are suggested, for which 10 key enabling actions are finally proposed.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Investigating the interactions between wakes and floating wind turbines using FAST.Farm

As floating offshore wind progresses to commercial maturity, wake and array effects across a farm of floating offshore wind turbines (FOWTs) will become increasingly important. While wakes of land-based and bottom-fixed offshore wind turbines have been extensively studied, only recently has this topic become relevant for floating turbines. This work presents an investigation of the mutual interaction between the motions of floating wind turbines and wakes using FAST.Farm. While FAST.Farm has been extensively validated across a wide range of conditions, it has never been validated for FOWT applications. Hence, in the first part of this work, we validate FAST.Farm by comparing simulations of a single FOWT against high-fidelity results from large-eddy simulations available in the literature. The validation is based on wake meandering, mean wake deflection, and velocity deficit at different downstream locations. This validation showed that the original axisymmetric (polar) wake model of FAST.Farm overpredicts the vertical wake deflection induced by shaft tilt and floater pitch, while the new curled wake model is capable of properly capturing the vertical wake deflection. In the second part, we use FAST.Farm to analyze a small three-unit array of FOWTs with a spacing of 7 diameters across a wide range of environmental conditions. The same National Renewable Energy Laboratory 5 MW reference wind turbine atop the OC4-DeepCwind semisubmersible is adopted for the three FOWTs and for the validation against high-fidelity simulations. To assess the effect of the floating substructure, we compare the power production, tower-base moments, and blade-root moments obtained for the floating turbines with the results obtained in a fixed-bottom configuration. The main differences introduced by the floating substructure are the motions induced by the waves, the change in the natural frequencies of the tower caused by differences in the boundary condition at its base, and the larger vertical deflection of the wake deficit due to the mean pitch of the platform. The impact of these differences, as well as other minor effects, are analyzed in detail.

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗
DOE OSTI2024

Replication Package for "Union-Find and Usability: A Case Study and Analysis of Rust Formal Verifier

This replication package is a case study on automated deductive verification for Rust for practical programs. It is a companion artifact to a corresponding usability study on verification titled "Union-Find and Usability: A Case Study and Analysis of Rust Formal Verifiers". It seeks to answer the question "Can Rust developers today use Rust verifiers to verify their code?". To answer this question, the study contrasts the verification experience of two mature Rust verifiers, Creusot and Prusti, by using the tools to develop a verified implementation of union-find in Rust. The union-find implementation is based on real-world code as used in the popular egg E-graph library. The artifact consists of two different verified libraries, one using Creusot and one using Prusti. The libraries have similar Rust interfaces and high-level proofs but differ in their details: Creusot and Prusti have different annotation languages and support different proof styles. Each implementation can be verified with its respective tool and compiles as a traditional Rust development.

Sarracino, John↗
DOE OSTI2025

Producing High-fidelity Synthetic Population Ensembles at Scale

Used within social simulations, synthetic population ensembles enable uncertainty quantification (UQ) methods for obtaining more robust model inference and prediction. A synthetic population ensemble is a series of plausible virtual reconstructions of an area’s population at the granularity of people and residences, generated stochastically to preserve privacy of the source population survey’s respondents. In this paper, we demonstrate the production of large synthetic population ensembles for the US via Oak Ridge National Laboratory’s UrbanPop framework to support modeling of high spatial resolution energy affordability metrics from nationwide social surveys in collaboration with the fusionACS project. Our initial task involves creating ensembles for 17 US metropolitan areas, each consisting of 41 population instances (a base realization and 40 replicates). To accomplish this task at scale, we configured an integrated system comprised of a research cloud, virtual containerization, GPU-enhanced functionality, and a dual API/CLI to interact with UrbanPop’s maturing Likeness Python ecosystem. We observe a reduction in theoretical execution time while maintaining high-fidelity approximations of residential totals by metropolitan area and the demographic characteristics of neighborhoods. We discuss expansion of our approach to produce synthetic population ensembles for the entire US, particularly plans to establish automated workflows for job orchestration to increase computational efficiency, as well as provide outlook for broadening applications of the ensembles.

Gaboardi, James [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000247766826)↗