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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 1,387 records · Page 77
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

CovTransformer: A transformer model for SARS-CoV-2 lineage frequency forecasting

With hundreds of SARS-CoV-2 lineages circulating in the global population, there is an ongoing need for predicting and forecasting lineage frequencies and thus identifying rapidly expanding lineages. Accurate prediction would allow for more focused experimental efforts to understand pathogenicity of future dominating lineages and characterize the extent of their immune escape. Here, we first show that the inherent noise and biases in lineage frequency data make a commonly-used regression-based approach unreliable. To address this weakness, we constructed a machine learning model for SARS-CoV-2 lineage frequency forecasting, called CovTransformer, based on the transformer architecture. We designed our model to navigate challenges such as a limited amount of data with high levels of noise and bias. We first trained and tested the model using data from the UK and the USA, and then tested the generalization ability of the model to many other countries and US states. Remarkably, the trained model makes accurate predictions two months into the future with high levels of accuracy both globally (in 31 countries with high levels of sequencing effort) and at the US-state level. Our model performed substantially better than a widely used forecasting tool, the multinomial regression model implemented in Nextstrain, demonstrating its utility in SARS-CoV-2 monitoring. Assuming a newly emerged lineage is identified and assigned, our test using retrospective data shows that our model is able to identify the dominating lineages 7 weeks in advance on average before they became dominant. Overall, our work demonstrates that transformer models represent a promising approach for SARS-CoV-2 forecasting and pandemic monitoring.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

An information-matching approach to optimal experimental design and active learning

The efficacy of mathematical models heavily depends on the quality of the training data, yet collecting sufficient data is often expensive and challenging. Many modeling applications require inferring parameters only as a means to predict other quantities of interest (QoI). Because models often contain many unidentifiable (sloppy) parameters, QoIs often depend on a relatively small number of parameter combinations. Therefore, we introduce an information-matching criterion based on the Fisher information matrix to select the most informative training data from a candidate pool. This method ensures that the selected data contain sufficient information to learn only those parameters that are needed to constrain downstream QoIs. It is formulated as a convex optimization problem, making it scalable to large models and datasets. Here, we demonstrate the effectiveness of this approach across various modeling problems in diverse scientific fields, including power systems and underwater acoustics. Finally, we use information-matching as a query function within an active learning (AL) loop for materials science applications. In all these applications, we find that a relatively small set of optimal training data can provide the necessary information for achieving precise predictions. These results are encouraging for diverse future applications, particularly AL in large machine-learning models.

Materials science↗
DOE OSTI2021

Unsupervised learning for identifying events in active target experiments

This article presents novel applications of unsupervised machine learning methods to the problem of event separation in an active target detector, the Active-Target Time Projection Chamber (AT-TPC). The overarching goal is to group similar events in the early stages of the data analysis, thereby improving efficiency by limiting the computationally expensive processing of unnecessary events. The application of unsupervised clustering algorithms to the analysis of two-dimensional projections of particle tracks from a resonant proton scattering experiment on 46 Ar is introduced. We explore the performance of autoencoder neural networks and a pre-trained VGG16 Simonyan and Zisserman (2015) convolutional neural network. We study clustering performance on both data from a simulated 46 Ar experiment, and real events from the AT-TPC detector. We find that a -means algorithm applied to simulated data in the VGG16 latent space forms almost perfect clusters. Additionally, the VGG16+-means approach finds high purity clusters of proton events for real experimental data. Here, we also explore the application of clustering the latent space of autoencoder neural networks for event separation. While these networks show strong performance, they suffer from high variability in their results.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2026

The Impact of Time-Aware Design Choices in ICS Anomaly Detection

Industrial control systems (ICS) remain vulnerable to increasingly sophisticated cyberattacks, yet evaluating anomaly detection models in these environments is challenging due to temporal dependencies, missing-not-at-random patterns, and extremely imbalanced datasets. These factors make common practices—especially random data splits and na¨ıve imputation— prone to severe temporal leakage, which can inflate reported performance and obscure real-world limitations. In this work, we systematically examine classical machine learning models, temporal deep learning architecture, and tensordecomposition– based methods on a gas-pipeline dataset using a fully temporally separated evaluation pipeline designed to mimic realistic deployment conditions. Our findings show that proper temporal handling and MNAR-aware preprocessing significantly alter the relative performance of popular anomaly-detection methods, providing practical guidance for designing reliable, leakage-resistant ICS intrusion-detection systems.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2024

Genomic fingerprints of the world’s soil ecosystems

Despite the explosion of soil metagenomic data, we lack a synthesized understanding of patterns in the distribution and functions of soil microorganisms. These patterns are critical to predictions of soil microbiome responses to climate change and resulting feedbacks that regulate greenhouse gas release from soils. To address this gap, we assay 1,512 manually curated soil metagenomes using complementary annotation databases, read-based taxonomy, and machine learning to extract multidimensional genomic fingerprints of global soil microbiomes. Our objective is to uncover novel biogeographical patterns of soil microbiomes across environmental factors and ecological biomes with high molecular resolution. We reveal shifts in the potential for (i) microbial nutrient acquisition across pH gradients; (ii) stress-, transport-, and redox-based processes across changes in soil bulk density; and (iii) greenhouse gas emissions across biomes. We also use an unsupervised approach to reveal a collection of soils with distinct genomic signatures, characterized by coordinated changes in soil organic carbon, nitrogen, and cation exchange capacity and in bulk density and clay content that may ultimately reflect soil environments with high microbial activity. Genomic fingerprints for these soils highlight the importance of resource scavenging, plant-microbe interactions, fungi, and heterotrophic metabolisms. Across all analyses, we observed phylogenetic coherence in soil microbiomes—more closely related microorganisms tended to move congruently in response to soil factors. Collectively, the genomic fingerprints uncovered here present a basis for global patterns in the microbial mechanisms underlying soil biogeochemistry and help beget tractable microbial reaction networks for incorporation into process-based models of soil carbon and nutrient cycling.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Classifying and analyzing small-angle scattering data using weighted k nearest neighbors machine learning techniques

A consistent challenge for both new and expert practitioners of small-angle scattering (SAS) lies in determining how to analyze the data, given the limited information content of said data and the large number of models that can be employed. Machine learning (ML) methods are powerful tools for classifying data that have found diverse applications in many fields of science. Here, ML methods are applied to the problem of classifying SAS data for the most appropriate model to use for data analysis. The approach employed is built around the method of weighted k nearest neighbors (wKNN), and utilizes a subset of the models implemented in the SasView package (https://www.sasview.org/) for generating a well defined set of training and testing data. The prediction rate of the wKNN method implemented here using a subset of SasView models is reasonably good for many of the models, but has difficulty with others, notably those based on spherical structures. A novel expansion of the wKNN method was also developed, which uses Gaussian processes to produce local surrogate models for the classification, and this significantly improves the classification accuracy. Further, by integrating a stochastic gradient descent method during post-processing, it is possible to leverage the local surrogate model both to classify the SAS data with high accuracy and to predict the structural parameters that best describe the data. The linking of data classification and model fitting has the potential to facilitate the translation of measured data into results for both novice and expert practitioners of SAS.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2024

Finite Element Analysis and Machine Learning Guided Design of Carbon Fiber Organosheet-Based Battery Enclosures for Crashworthiness

Carbon fiber composite can be a potential candidate for replacing metal-based battery enclosures of current electric vehicles (E.V.s) owing to its better strength-to-weight ratio and corrosion resistance. However, the strength of carbon fiber-based structures depends on several parameters that should be carefully chosen. Here, in this work, we implemented high throughput finite element analysis (FEA) based thermoforming simulation to virtually manufacture the battery enclosure using different design and processing parameters. Subsequently, we performed virtual crash simulations to mimic a side pole crash to evaluate the crashworthiness of the battery enclosures. This high throughput crash simulation dataset was utilized to build predictive models to understand the crashworthiness of an unknown set. Our machine learning (ML) models showed excellent performance (R 2 > 0.97) in predicting the crashworthiness metrics, i.e., crush load efficiency, absorbed energy, intrusion, and maximum deceleration during a crash. We believe that this FEA-ML work framework will be helpful in down select process parameters for carbon fiber-based component design and can be transferrable to other manufacturing technologies.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2022

Machine Learning Assisted Reservoir Operation Model for Long–Term Water Management Simulation

This study explores strategies for long-term reservoir simulations by combining generic rule-based reservoir management model (RMM) and machine learning (ML) models for two major multipurpose reservoirs — Allatoona Lake and Lake Sidney Lanier in the southeastern United States. First, a standalone RMM is developed to simulate daily release and storage during Water Year 1981–2015. Next, using Long-Short Term Memory (LSTM) as the ML technique, a standalone LSTM model is trained based on reservoir inflow and meteorological observations to simulate reservoir release and estimate reservoir storage through water balance calculation. Three hybrid modeling strategies are developed, one using RMM output as an additional LSTM input (H1), another using LSTM as the initial release estimate in RMM (H2), and the third combining the first two strategies (H3). The Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) for release (NSE-r), storage (NSE-s), and their mean (NSE-avg) are used for model evaluation. Overall, H1 improves NSE-r to 0.65 and 0.54 for Allatoona and Lanier, respectively, compared to standalone RMM (0.44 and 0.21); however, its storage trajectory did not produce a physically feasible solution, similar to LSTM. H2 and especially H3 show that they can retain the best features from RMM and LSTM, with H3 NSE-avg being 0.695 and 0.55 for Allatoona and Lanier outperforming RMM (0.615 and 0.29). In conclusion, the findings suggest a robust simulation capacity for large-scale water management in future studies.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

A machine learning approach to predict thermal expansion of complex oxides

Although it is of scientific and practical importance, the state-of-the-art of predicting the thermal expansion of oxides over broad temperature and composition ranges by physics-based atomistic simulations is currently limited to qualitative agreements. We present an emerging machine learning (ML) approach to accurately predict the thermal expansion of cubic oxides with a dataset consisting of experimentally measured lattice parameters while using the metal cation polyhedron and temperature as descriptors. High-fidelity ML models that can accurately predict temperature- and composition-dependent lattice parameters of cubic oxides with isotropic thermal expansions have been successfully trained. The ML-predicted thermal expansions of oxides not included in the training dataset have shown good agreement with available experiments. The limitations of the current approach and challenges to go beyond cubic oxides with isotropic thermal expansion are also briefly discussed.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2025

Fast jet tagging with MLP-Mixers on FPGAs

We explore the innovative use of MLP-Mixer models for real-time jet tagging and establish their feasibility on resource-constrained hardware like FPGAs. MLP-Mixers excel in processing sequences of jet constituents, achieving state-of-the-art performance on datasets mimicking Large Hadron Collider conditions. By using advanced optimization techniques such as High-Granularity Quantization and Distributed Arithmetic, we achieve unprecedented efficiency. These models match or surpass the accuracy of previous architectures, reduce hardware resource usage by up to 97%, double the throughput, and half the latency. Additionally, non-permutation-invariant architectures enable smart feature prioritization and efficient FPGA deployment, setting a new benchmark for machine learning in real-time data processing at particle colliders.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2024

From Chaos to Clarity: Autonomous Materials Discovery for Extreme Environments [Slides]

The pursuit of advanced functional materials for energy applications demands an understanding of their behavior under the most challenging conditions. Extreme environments, characterized by intense radiation, high temperatures, and corrosive chemistries, push materials to their limits, often revealing unexpected behaviors and degradation pathways. Traditional materials research approaches, relying on trial-and-error experimentation, are often slow and resource-intensive, ill-suited to the complexities of extreme environments. This talk will explore the transformative potential of autonomous materials science in revolutionizing our understanding of materials synthesis and degradation in extreme environments. By integrating advanced microscopy techniques, artificial intelligence, and robotic experimentation, we can accelerate the discovery and design of resilient materials for a sustainable future. The presentation will highlight recent breakthroughs in autonomous microscopy, computer vision, and machine learning, showcasing their ability to unravel complex material transformations at the atomic scale. The talk will also delve into the challenges and opportunities associated with deploying autonomous systems to probe extreme environments, emphasizing the importance of robust algorithms, real-time data analysis, and adaptive experimentation. The ultimate goal is to empower scientists with unprecedented capabilities to explore, understand, and engineer materials that can withstand the harshest conditions, paving the way for innovations in energy, aerospace, and beyond.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Improving the Quality of Geothermal Data Through Data Standards and Pipelines Within the Geothermal Data Repository: Preprint

For machine learning outputs to be applicable to real world problems, high quality data are needed to ensure high quality results. With the more recent emphasis on machine learning in geothermal, there is an increasing need for greater focus on the quality of the data available for use in these projects. For example, Geothermal Operational Optimization Using Machine Learning (GOOML) utilized large quantities of geothermal power plant operational data to inform power plant operational configurations to maximize power generation. High quality datasets result from dependable sensors or devices collecting data, high frequency of measurements, sufficient data points, adequate metadata, reliable storage of data, and sufficient data curation. Another component that contributes to high quality data is reusability, which can be enhanced through data standardization. Data Standardization creates consistency in formatting and contents of like datasets, lessening preprocessing requirements and ensuring adequate information provided by a given dataset. The Geothermal Data Repository (GDR) aims to help improve data quality through automated data standardization for high-value datasets through the implementation of data pipelines alongside reliable and accessible long-term storage for datasets. As such, the GDR has decided to shift away from recommending the use of Excel-based content models and towards the implementation of automated data pipelines. This takes the burden of data standardization off the user and project team and will increase the availability of standardized geothermal data available through the GDR. A set of recommendations, or a data standard for each data type will exist with each data pipeline in order to advise data collection for maximum usability for future research. This paper serves to describe the GDR's proposed transition towards data standardization through automated data pipelines, to discuss the need for and value of such a shift, and to call for suggestions from the community regarding the most useful data standards and pipelines.

data↗
DOE OSTI2026

A hybrid Penman-Monteith and machine learning model for simulating evapotranspiration and its components

Integrating physical processes with machine learning has advanced evapotranspiration (ET) simulation, yet most hybrid models fail to partition total ET into its components: soil evaporation (E) and vegetation transpiration (T). This study introduces Residual Neural Network–Penman–Monteith (RNN-PM), a novel hybrid dual-source ET model designed to overcome this limitation. The model synergizes the physically-based Penman–Monteith framework with three specialized residual neural networks trained to estimate key conductance parameters (canopy conductance, soil surface conductance, and aerodynamic conductance). Furthermore this explicit parameterization allows for the direct partitioning of total ET. Validation at National Ecological Observatory Network (NEON) flux sites using high-frequency partitioned E and T shows that RNN-PM reliably reproduces ET and the transpiration fraction (T/ET). For ET, the model achieves an average Kling–Gupta efficiency (KGE) of 0.89 and a root-mean-square error (RMSE) of 0.55 mm/day; for T/ET, the KGE is 0.87 with an RMSE of 0.06. Furthermore, RNN-PM demonstrates robust generalization, accurately simulating ET and its components well beyond the initial training dataset, even under extreme climatic conditions. This study extended the analysis by comparing the RNN-PM model with seven established dual-source ET models. The results indicate that RNN-PM outperforms both conventional machine learning models and purely physical process-based models in simulating ET components in most cases. Among the purely physical process-based dual-source models, those based on surface temperature decomposition showed improved performance as the leaf area index (LAI) decreased when evaluated against high-frequency ET component datasets. In contrast, the performance of conductance-based dual-source models declined with decreasing LAI. Although purely machine learning-based models can produce relatively accurate simulations of ET components, they often exhibit limited generalization capability, an issue that the RNN-PM model effectively overcomes. Ultimately, the RNN-PM model represents a significant advance in simulating ET components, offering a novel and scalable approach for improving the representation of land–atmosphere interactions in Earth system models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Continental United States may lose 1.8 petagrams of soil organic carbon under climate change by 2100

Abstract Aims High‐resolution information on soils’ vulnerability to climate‐induced soil organic carbon (SOC) loss can enable environmental scientists, land managers, and policy makers to develop targeted mitigation strategies. This study aims to estimate baseline and decadal changes in continental US surface SOC stocks under future emission scenarios. Location Continental United States. Time period 2014–2100. Methods We used recent SOC field observations ( n = 6,213 sites), environmental factors ( n = 32), and an ensemble machine learning (ML) approach to estimate baseline SOC stocks in surface soils across the continental United States at 100‐m spatial resolution, and decadal changes under the projected climate scenarios of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase Six (CMIP6) earth system models (ESMs). Results Baseline SOC projections from ML approaches captured more than 50% of variability in SOC observations, whereas ESMs represented only 6–16% of observed SOC variability. ML estimates showed a mean total loss of 1.8 Pg C from US surface soils under the high‐emission scenario by 2100, whereas ESMs showed no significant change in SOC stocks with wide variation among ESMs. Both ML and ESM predictions agree on the direction of SOC change (net emissions or sequestration) across 46–51% of continental US land area. These differences are attributable to the high‐resolution site‐specific data used in the ML models compared to the relatively coarse grid represented in CMIP6 ESMs. Main conclusions Our high‐resolution estimates of baseline SOC stocks, identification of key environmental controllers, and projection of SOC changes from US land cover types under future climate scenarios suggest the need for high‐resolution simulations of SOC in ESMs to represent the heterogeneity of SOC. We found that the SOC change is sensitive to key soil related factors (e.g. soil drainage and soil order) that have not been historically considered as input parameters in ESMs, because currently more than 95% variability in the SOC of CMIP6 ESMs is controlled by net primary productivity, temperature, and precipitation. Using additional environmental factors to estimate the baseline SOC stocks and predict the future trajectory of SOC change can provide more accurate results.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Machine Learning in Infectious Disease for Risk Factor Identification and Hypothesis Generation: Proof of Concept Using Invasive Candidiasis

Machine learning (ML) models can handle large data sets without assuming underlying relationships and can be useful for evaluating disease characteristics, yet they are more commonly used for predicting individual disease risk than for identifying factors at the population level. We offer a proof of concept applying random forest (RF) algorithms to Candida-positive hospital encounters in an electronic health record database of patients in the United States. Candida-positive encounters were extracted from the Cerner HealthFacts database; invasive infections were laboratory-positive sterile site Candida infections. Features included demographics, admission source, care setting, physician specialty, diagnostic and procedure codes, and medications received before the first positive Candida culture. We used RF to assess risk factors for 3 outcomes: any invasive candidiasis (IC) vs non-IC, within-species IC vs non-IC (eg, invasive C. glabrata vs noninvasive C. glabrata), and between-species IC (eg, invasive C. glabrata vs all other IC). Fourteen of 169 (8%) variables were consistently identified as important features in the ML models. When evaluating within-species IC, for example, invasive C. glabrata vs non-invasive C. glabrata, we identified known features like central venous catheters, intensive care unit stay, and gastrointestinal operations. In contrast, important variables for invasive C. glabrata vs all other IC included renal disease and medications like diabetes therapeutics, cholesterol medications, and antiarrhythmics. Known and novel risk factors for IC were identified using ML, demonstrating the hypothesis-generating utility of this approach for infectious disease conditions about which less is known, specifically at the species level or for rarer diseases.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Towards interpretable Cryo-EM: disentangling latent spaces of molecular conformations

Molecules are essential building blocks of life and their different conformations (i.e., shapes) crucially determine the functional role that they play in living organisms. Cryogenic Electron Microscopy (cryo-EM) allows for acquisition of large image datasets of individual molecules. Recent advances in computational cryo-EM have made it possible to learn latent variable models of conformation landscapes. However, interpreting these latent spaces remains a challenge as their individual dimensions are often arbitrary. The key message of our work is that this interpretation challenge can be viewed as an Independent Component Analysis (ICA) problem where we seek models that have the property of identifiability. That means, they have an essentially unique solution, representing a conformational latent space that separates the different degrees of freedom a molecule is equipped with in nature. Thus, we aim to advance the computational field of cryo-EM beyond visualizations as we connect it with the theoretical framework of (nonlinear) ICA and discuss the need for identifiable models, improved metrics, and benchmarks. Moving forward, we propose future directions for enhancing the disentanglement of latent spaces in cryo-EM, refining evaluation metrics and exploring techniques that leverage physics-based decoders of biomolecular systems. Moreover, we discuss how future technological developments in time-resolved single particle imaging may enable the application of nonlinear ICA models that can discover the true conformation changes of molecules in nature. The pursuit of interpretable conformational latent spaces will empower researchers to unravel complex biological processes and facilitate targeted interventions. This has significant implications for drug discovery and structural biology more broadly. More generally, latent variable models are deployed widely across many scientific disciplines. Thus, the argument we present in this work has much broader applications in AI for science if we want to move from impressive nonlinear neural network models to mathematically grounded methods that can help us learn something new about nature.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Differences in substrate use linked to divergent carbon flow during litter decomposition

ABSTRACT Discovering widespread microbial processes that create variation in soil carbon (C) cycling within ecosystems may improve soil C modeling. Toward this end, we screened 206 soil communities decomposing plant litter in a common garden microcosm environment and examined features linked to divergent patterns of C flow. C flow was measured as carbon dioxide (CO2) and dissolved organic carbon (DOC) from 44-days of litter decomposition. Two large groups of microbial communities representing ‘high’ and ‘low’ DOC phenotypes from original soil and 44-day microcosm samples were down-selected for fungal and bacterial profiling. Metatranscriptomes were also sequenced from a smaller subset of communities in each group. The two groups exhibited differences in average rate of CO2 production, demonstrating that the divergent patterns of C flow arose from innate functional constraints on C metabolism, not a time-dependent artefact. To infer functional constraints, we identified features – traits at the organism, pathway or gene level – linked to the high and low DOC phenotypes using RNA-Seq approaches and machine learning approaches. Substrate use differed across the high and low DOC phenotypes. Additional features suggested that divergent patterns of C flow may be driven in part by differences in organism interactions that affect DOC abundance directly or indirectly by controlling community structure.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Rotor blade imbalance fault detection for variable-speed marine current turbines via generator power signal analysis

Marine hydrokinetic (MHK) turbines extract renewable energy from oceanic environments. However, due to the harsh conditions that these turbines operate in, system performance naturally degrades over time. Thus, ensuring efficient condition-based maintenance is imperative towards guaranteeing reliable operation and reduced costs for marine hydrokinetic power. This work proposes a novel framework aimed at identifying and classifying the severity of rotor blade pitch imbalance faults experienced by marine current turbines (MCTs). In the framework, a Continuous Morlet Wavelet Transform (CMWT) is first utilized to acquire the wavelet coefficients encompassed within the 1P frequency range of the turbine's rotor shaft. From these coefficients, several statistical indices are tabulated into a six-dimensional feature space. Next, Principle Component Analysis (PCA) is employed on the resulting feature space for dimensionality reduction, and then the application of a K-Nearest Neighbor (KNN) machine learning algorithm is utilized for fault detection and severity classification. The effectiveness of the proposed framework is validated using a high-fidelity MCT numerical simulation platform, where results demonstrate that the presence of a pitch imbalance fault can be accurately detected 100% of the time and correctly classified based upon severity more than 97% of the time.

42 ENGINEERING↗