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Objective Lightning Probability Forecasting for Kennedy Space Center and Cape Canaveral Air Force Station, Phase II

This report describes the work done by the Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU) to update the lightning probability forecast equations developed in Phase I. In the time since the Phase I equations were developed, new ideas regarding certain predictors were formulated and a desire to make the tool more automated was expressed by 45 WS forecasters. Five modifications were made to the data: 1) increased the period of record from 15 to 17 years, 2) modified the valid area to match the lighting warning areas, 3) added the 1000 UTC CCAFS sounding to the other soundings in determining the flow regime, 4) used a different smoothing function for the daily climatology, and 5) determined the optimal relative humidity (RH) layer to use as a predictor. The new equations outperformed the Phase I equations in several tests, and improved the skill of the forecast over the Phase I equations by 8%. A graphical user interface (GUI) was created in the Meteorological Interactive Data Display System (MIDDS) that gathers the predictor values for the equations automatically. The GUI was transitioned to operations in May 2007 for the 2007 warm season.

Lambert, Winifred↗

Determination of a Limited Scope Network's Lightning Detection Efficiency

This paper outlines a modeling technique to map lightning detection efficiency variations over a region surveyed by a sparse array of ground based detectors. A reliable flash peak current distribution (PCD) for the region serves as the technique's base. This distribution is recast as an event probability distribution function. The technique then uses the PCD together with information regarding: site signal detection thresholds, type of solution algorithm used, and range attenuation; to formulate the probability that a flash at a specified location will yield a solution. Applying this technique to the full region produces detection efficiency contour maps specific to the parameters employed. These contours facilitate a comparative analysis of each parameter's effect on the network's detection efficiency. In an alternate application, this modeling technique gives an estimate of the number, strength, and distribution of events going undetected. This approach leads to a variety of event density contour maps. This application is also illustrated. The technique's base PCD can be empirical or analytical. A process for formulating an empirical PCD specific to the region and network being studied is presented. A new method for producing an analytical representation of the empirical PCD is also introduced.

Rompala, John T.↗

Evaluation of Grounding Impedance of a Complex Lightning Protective System Using Earth Ground Clamp Measurements and ATP Modeling

A new Lightning Protection System (LPS) was designed and built at Launch Complex 39B (LC39B), at the Kennedy Space Center (KSC), Florida, which consists of a catenary wire system (at a height of about 181 meters above ground level) supported by three insulators installed atop three towers in a triangular configuration. A total of nine downconductors (each about 250 meters long, on average) are connected to the catenary wire system. Each of the nine downconductors is connected to a 7.62-meter radius circular counterpoise conductor with six equally spaced 6-meter long vertical grounding rods. Grounding requirements at LC39B call for all underground and above ground metallic piping, enclosures, raceways, and cable trays, within 7.62 meters of the counterpoise, to be bounded to the counterpoise, which results in a complex interconnected grounding system, given the many metallic piping, raceways, and cable trays that run in multiple direction around LC39B. The complexity of this grounding system makes the fall of potential method, which uses multiple metallic rods or stakes, unsuitable for measuring the grounding impedances of the downconductors. To calculate the downconductors grounding impedance, an Earth Ground Clamp (a stakeless grounding resistance measuring device) and a LPS Alternative Transient Program (ATP) model are used. The Earth Ground Clamp is used to measure the loop impedance plus the grounding impedance of each downconductor and the ATP model is used to calculate the loop impedance of each downconductor circuit. The grounding impedance of the downconductors is then calculated by subtracting the ATP calculated loop impedances from the Earth Ground Clamp measurements.

Mata, Carlos T.↗

Monitoring D-Region Variability from Lightning Measurements

In situ measurements of ionospheric D-region characteristics are somewhat scarce and rely mostly on sounding rockets. Remote sensing techniques employing Very Low Frequency (VLF) transmitters can provide electron density estimates from subionospheric wave propagation modeling. Here we discuss how lightning waveform measurements, namely sferics and tweeks, can be used for monitoring the D-region variability and day-night transition, and for local electron density estimates. A brief comparison among D-region aeronomy models is also presented.

Simoes, Fernando↗

Large-Amplitude Transmitter-Associated and Lightning-Associated Whistler Waves in the Earth's Inner Plasmasphere at L less than 2

We report observations of very large amplitude whistler mode waves in the Earth fs nightside inner radiation belt enabled by the STEREO Time Domain Sampler. Amplitudes range from 30.110 mV/m (zero ]peak), 2 to 3 orders of magnitude larger than previously observed in this region. Measurements from the peak electric field detector (TDSMax) indicate that these large ]amplitude waves are prevalent throughout the plasmasphere. A detailed examination of high time resolution electric field waveforms is undertaken on a subset of these whistlers at L < 2, associated with pump waves from lightning flashes and the naval transmitter NPM in Hawaii, that become unstable after propagation through the ionosphere and grow to large amplitudes. Many of the waveforms undergo periodic polarization reversals near the lower hybrid and NPM naval transmitter frequencies. The reversals may be related to finite plasma temperature and gradients in density induced by ion cyclotron heating of the plasma at 200 Hz, the modulation frequency of the continuous ]mode NPM naval transmitter signal. Test particle simulations using the amplitudes and durations of the waves observed herein suggest that they can interact strongly with high ]energy (>100 keV) electrons on a time scale of <1 s and thus may be an important previously unaccounted for source of energization or pitch ]angle scattering in the inner radiation belt.

Breneman, A.↗

High-Resolution Analysis Products to Support Severe Weather and Cloud-to-Ground Lightning Threat Assessments over Florida

The Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU) located at the Kennedy Space Center (KSC)/Cape Canaveral Air Force Station (CCAFS) implemented an operational configuration of the Advanced Regional Prediction System (ARPS) Data Analysis System (ADAS), as well as the ARPS numerical weather prediction (NWP) model. Operational, high-resolution ADAS analyses have been produced from this configuration at the National Weather Service in Melbourne, FL (NWS MLB) and the Spaceflight Meteorology Group (SMG) over the past several years. Since that time, ADAS fields have become an integral part of forecast operations at both NWS MLB and SMG. To continue providing additional utility, the AMU has been tasked to implement visualization products to assess the potential for supercell thunderstorms and significant tornadoes, and to improve assessments of short-term cloud-to-ground (CG) lightning potential. This paper and presentation focuses on the visualization products developed by the AMU for the operational high-resolution ADAS and AR.PS at the NWS MLB and SMG. The two severe weather threat graphics implemented within ADAS/ARPS are the Supercell Composite Parameter (SCP) and Significant Tornado Parameter (SIP). The SCP was designed to identify areas with supercell thunderstorm potential through a combination of several instability and shear parameters. The SIP was designed to identify areas that favor supercells producing significant tornadoes (F2 or greater intensity) versus non-tornadic supercells. Both indices were developed by the NOAAINWS Storm Prediction Center (SPC) and were normalized by key threshold values based on previous studies. The indices apply only to discrete storms, not other convective modes. In a post-analysis mode, the AMU calculated SCP and SIP for graphical output using an ADAS configuration similar to the operational set-ups at NWS MLB and SMG. Graphical images from ADAS were generated every 15 minutes for 13 August 2004, the day that Hurricane Charley approached and made landfall on the Florida peninsula. Several tornadoes struck the interior of the Florida peninsula in advance of Hurricane Charley's landfall during the daylight hours of 13 August. Since SPC had previously examined this case using SCP and SIP graphics generated from output of the Rapid Update Cycle (RUC) model, this day served as a good benchmark to compare and validate the high-resolution ADAS graphics against the smoother RUC analyses, which serves as background fields to the ADAS analyses. The ADAS-generated SCP and STP graphics have been integrated into the suite of products examined operationally by NWS MLB forecasters and are used to provide additional guidance for assessment of the near-storm environment during convective situations.

Case, Jonathan↗

Calculating the Lightning Protection System Downconductors' Grounding Resistance at Launch Complex 39B, Kennedy Space Center

A new Lightning Protection System (LPS) was designed and built at Launch Complex 39B (LC39B), at the Kennedy Space Center (KSC), Florida, which consists of a catenary wire system (at a height of about 181 meters above ground level) supported by three insulators installed atop three towers in a triangular configuration. Nine downconductors (each about 250 meters long) are connected to the catenary wire system. Each downconductor is connected to a 7.62-meter-radius circular counterpoise conductor with six equally spaced, 6-meter-long vertical grounding rods. Grounding requirements at LC39B call for all underground and aboveground metallic piping, enclosures, raceways, and cable trays, within 7.62 meters of the counterpoise, to be bonded to the counterpoise, which results in a complex interconnected grounding system, given the many metallic piping, raceways, and cable trays that run in multiple directions around LC39B. The complexity of this grounding system makes the fall-of-potential method, which uses multiple metallic rods or stakes, unsuitable for measuring the grounding impedances of the downconductors. To calculate the grounding impedance of the downconductors, an Earth Ground Clamp (EGC) (a stakeless device for measuring grounding impedance) and an Alternative Transient Program (ATP) model of the LPS are used. The EGC is used to measure the loop impedance plus the grounding impedance of each downconductor, and the ATP model is used to calculate the loop impedance of each downconductor circuit. The grounding resistance of the downconductors is then calculated by subtracting the ATP calculated loop impedances from the EGC measurements.

Mata, Carlos T.↗

Calculating the Lightning Protection System Downconductors' Grounding Resistance at Launch Complex 39B, Kennedy Space Center, Florida

A new Lightning Protection System (LPS) was designed and built at Launch Complex 39B (LC39B), at the Kennedy Space Center (KSC). Florida, which consists of a catenary wire system (at a height of about 181 meters above ground level) supported by three insulation installed atop three towers in a triangular configuration. Nine downconductors (each about 250 meters long) are connected to the catenary wire system. Each downconductor is connected to a 7.62-meter-radius circular counterpoise conductor with six equally spaced. 6-meter-1ong vertical grounding rods. Grounding requirements at LC39B call for all underground and above ground metallic piping. enclosures, raceways. and. cable trays. within 7.62 meters of. counterpoise, to be bonded to the counterpoise, which results in a complex interconnected grounding system, given the many metallic piping, raceways and cable trays that run in multiple directions around LC39B.

Mata, Carlos↗

Integration of the Total Lightning Jump Algorithm into Current Operational Warning Environment Conceptual Models

Key points this analysis will address: 1) What physically is going on in the cloud when there is a jump in lightning? -- Updraft variations, Ice fluxes 2) How do these processes fit in with severe storm conceptual models? 3) What would this information provide an end user? --Relate LJA to radar observations, like changes in reflectivity, MESH, VIL, etc. based multi -Doppler derived physical relationships

Schultz, Chris↗

Flow Regime Based Climatologies of Lightning Probabilities for Spaceports and Airports

Objective: provide forecasters with a "first guess" climatological lightning probability tool (1) Focus on Space Shuttle landings and NWS T AFs (2) Four circles around sites: 5-, 10-, 20- and 30 n mi (4) Three time intervals: hourly, every 3 hr and every 6 hr It is based on: (1) NLDN gridded data (2) Flow regime (3) Warm season months of May-Sep for years 1989-2004 Gridded data and available code yields squares, not circles Over 850 spread sheets converted into manageable user-friendly web-based GUI

Bauman, William H., III↗

Lightning Protection for the Orion Space Vehicle

The Orion space vehicle is designed to requirements for both direct attachment and indirect effects of lightning. Both sets of requirements are based on a full threat 200kA strike, in accordance with constraints and guidelines contained in SAE ARP documents applicable to both commercial and military aircraft and space vehicles. This paper describes the requirements as levied against the vehicle, as well as the means whereby the design shows full compliance.

Scully, Robert↗

Lightning Protection for the Orion Space Vehicle

The Orion space vehicle is designed to requirements for both direct attachment and indirect effects of lightning. Both sets of requirements are based on a full threat 200kA strike, in accordance with constraints and guidelines contained in SAE ARP documents applicable to both commercial and military aircraft and space vehicles. This paper describes the requirements as levied against the vehicle, as well as the means whereby the design shows full compliance.

Scully, Robert↗

The Quality Control Algorithms Used in the Process of Creating the NASA Kennedy Space Center Lightning Protection System Towers Meteorological Database

The methodology and the results of the quality control (QC) process of the meteorological data from the Lightning Protection System (LPS) towers located at Kennedy Space Center (KSC) launch complex 39B (LC-39B) are documented in this paper. Meteorological data are used to design a launch vehicle, determine operational constraints, and to apply defined constraints on day-of-launch (DOL). In order to properly accomplish these tasks, a representative climatological database of meteorological records is needed because the database needs to represent the climate the vehicle will encounter. Numerous meteorological measurement towers exist at KSC; however, the engineering tasks need measurements at specific heights, some of which can only be provided by a few towers. Other than the LPS towers, Tower 313 is the only tower that provides observations up to 150 m. This tower is located approximately 3.5 km from LC-39B. In addition, data need to be QC'ed to remove erroneous reports that could pollute the results of an engineering analysis, mislead the development of operational constraints, or provide a false image of the atmosphere at the tower's location.

Orcutt, John M.↗

The Quality Control Algorithms Used in the Creation of NASA Kennedy Space Center Lightning Protection System Towers Meteorological Database

An accurate database of meteorological data is essential for designing any aerospace vehicle and for preparing launch commit criteria. Meteorological instrumentation were recently placed on the three Lightning Protection System (LPS) towers at Kennedy Space Center (KSC) launch complex 39B (LC-39B), which provide a unique meteorological dataset existing at the launch complex over an extensive altitude range. Data records of temperature, dew point, relative humidity, wind speed, and wind direction are produced at 40, 78, 116, and 139 m at each tower. The Marshall Space Flight Center Natural Environments Branch (EV44) received an archive that consists of one-minute averaged measurements for the period of record of January 2011 - April 2015. However, before the received database could be used EV44 needed to remove any erroneous data from within the database through a comprehensive quality control (QC) process. The QC process applied to the LPS towers' meteorological data is similar to other QC processes developed by EV44, which were used in the creation of meteorological databases for other towers at KSC. The QC process utilized in this study has been modified specifically for use with the LPS tower database. The QC process first includes a check of each individual sensor. This check includes removing any unrealistic data and checking the temporal consistency of each variable. Next, data from all three sensors at each height are checked against each other, checked against climatology, and checked for sensors that erroneously report a constant value. Then, a vertical consistency check of each variable at each tower is completed. Last, the upwind sensor at each level is selected to minimize the influence of the towers and other structures at LC-39B on the measurements. The selection process for the upwind sensor implemented a study of tower-induced turbulence. This paper describes in detail the QC process, QC results, and the attributes of the LPS towers meteorological database.

Orcutt, John M.↗