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NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Hypervelocity Impact Characterization on Hubble Space Telescope Multi-Layer Insulation

Multi-layer insulation (MLI) is a common material used on rocket bodies and spacecraft to provide thermal regulation. This material is typically attached on the surface of the object in orbit and is thus exposed to the space environment and to micrometeoroid and orbital debris (MMOD) impacts. Occasionally, these exposed surfaces are returned and used by NASA’s Orbital Debris Program Office (ODPO) for analysis. When used to assess impacts on surfaces over time, materials like MLI provide an opportunity for in situ measurements to support the Orbital Debris Engineering Model (ORDEM) development and validation. During the 2009 Hubble Space Telescope (HST) Serving Mission, the MLI blankets covering the HST electronics bays 5, 8, and 10 were removed and subsequently analyzed by the ODPO in 2010. The bay 5 blanket was used in concert with ground-based hypervelocity impact tests on single layer MLI to validate the ORDEM 3.1 computer model of the OD environment, but further research was required to properly differentiate the impact features attributed to MM or OD. The ORDEM 3.1 validation effort identified several areas of further study to improve model validation and understanding of the space environment. Among these topics are the effects of underlying MLI layers on first layer impact feature characteristics, the effects of space weathering and associated damage to the surface on impact feature characteristics, and the transition from perforating to cratering regions. To better understand hypervelocity impact damage and long-term degradation of MLI surfaces, further hypervelocity impact testing was proposed and completed from 2020 to 2022. This paper discusses test conditions and parameters with resultant impact hole analyses of single layer versus multi-layered samples, space-exposed samples versus pristine, equivalent samples, and perforation versus cratering criteria in the difficult transition region. Damage equations, with associated uncertainties, are estimated from the test parameters and presented. The results of a feasibility study are described, in which the Scanning Electron Microscopy/Electron Dispersive X-ray was used to examine the MLI layers to differentiate MM and OD impacts. Finally, the extension of HST MLI outcomes and analysis methodology as it applies to future returned MLI samples is discussed.

Melissa A. Murray↗
NASA NTRS2023

Hypervelocity Impact Characterization on Hubble Space Telescope Multi-Layer Insulation

Multi-layer insulation (MLI) is a common material used on rocket bodies and spacecraft to provide thermal regulation. This material is typically attached on the surface of the object in orbit and is thus exposed to the space environment and to micrometeoroid and orbital debris (MMOD) impacts. Occasionally, these exposed surfaces are returned and used by NASA’s Orbital Debris Program Office (ODPO) for analysis. When used to assess impacts on surfaces over time, materials like MLI provide an opportunity for in-situ measurements to support the Orbital Debris Engineering Model (ORDEM) development and validation. During the 2009 Hubble Space Telescope (HST) Serving Mission, the MLI blankets covering the HST electronics bays 5, 8, and 10 were removed and subsequently analyzed by the ODPO in 2010. The bay 5 blanket was used in concert with ground-based hypervelocity impact tests on single layer MLI to validate the ORDEM 3.1 computer model of the OD environment, but further research was required to properly differentiate the impact features attributed to MM or OD. The ORDEM 3.1 validation effort identified several areas of further study to improve model validation and understanding of the space environment. Among these topics are the effects of underlying MLI layers on first layer impact feature characteristics, the effects of space weathering and associated damage to the surface on impact feature characteristics, and the transition from perforating to cratering regions. To better understand hypervelocity impact damage and long-term degradation of MLI surfaces, further hypervelocity impact testing was proposed and completed from 2020 to 2022. This paper discusses test conditions and parameters with resultant impact hole analyses of single layer versus multi-layered samples, space-exposed samples versus pristine, equivalent samples, and perforation versus cratering criteria in the difficult transition region. Damage equations, with associated uncertainties, are estimated from the test parameters and presented. The results of a feasibility study are described, in which the scanning electron microscopy/electron dispersive x-ray was used to examine the MLI layers to differentiate MM and OD impacts. Finally, the extension of HST MLI outcomes and analysis methodology as it applies to future returned MLI samples is discussed.

Melissa A Murray↗
DOE OSTI2019

Distribution Systems Planning and Analysis Framework for Indian Feeders - Partnership with BSES/BRPL

Integration of distributed energy resources (DER) such as photovoltaics, electric vehicles (EVs) and battery energy storage systems (BESS) is expected to rapidly increase in distribution systems in India. These grid edge resources can have adverse impacts on the grid and can provide additional revenue streams as well. To mitigate these impacts distribution planning and analysis is required. So this paper presents a framework which can be used to complete all steps involved in distribution planning and analysis. This framework uses data in the same format as is readily available with Indian utilities and processes it to generate detailed feeder models and loading profiles. This framework already includes multiple DER use cases such as peak shaving for BESS and EV demand modelling and can be easily extended to simulate a number of additional use cases. All of these use cases can be simulated in parallel for multi-year time series simulations using an integrated command line interface. A suit of grid readiness metrics are then evaluated for each simulation to determine required network upgrades and associated costs.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
NASA NTRS2020

Evaluation of adjoint-based observation impacts as a function of forecast length using an Observing System Simulation Experiment

Adjoints of numerical weather prediction models may be employed for Forecast Sensitivity to Observation (FSO) in order to monitor the contribution of ingested observation data on short-term forecast skill. However, the calculation of short-term forecast error is difficult due to the lack of a truly independent dataset for verification. In an Observing System Simulation Experiment framework, the Nature Run is able to provide a true and complete verification dataset and allows accurate evaluation of short term forecast errors. In this work, an OSSE developed at the National Aeronautics and Space Administration Global Modeling and Assimilation Office is used to explore the impact of observational data on forecasts in the 6 to 48 hour range. An adjoint of the Global Earth Observing System model is employed to compare the observation impacts estimated using both self-analysis verification and the true Nature Run verification. Self-analysis verification is found to inflate the estimated forecast error growth during the early forecast period, resulting in overestimations of observation impacts, particularly in the 6-12 hour forecast range. By 48 hours, the self-analysis verification estimates of forecast error and observation impacts more closely match the true values. The fraction of beneficial observations is also overinflated at short forecast times when self-analysis verification is used. The progression of impacts of an individual observation or data type depends on the character of the growth of the initial condition error that each observation affects.

numerical weather prediction↗
NASA NTRS2010

Reliability and Stability of VLBI-Derived Sub-Daily EOP Models

Recent investigations have shown significant shortcomings in the model which is proposed by the IERS to account for the variations in the Earth s rotation with periods around one day and less. To overcome this, an empirical model can be estimated more or less directly from the observations of space geodetic techniques. The aim of this paper is to evaluate the quality and reliability of such a model based on VLBI observations. Therefore, the impact of the estimation method and the analysis options as well as the temporal stability are investigated. It turned out that, in order to provide a realistic accuracy measure of the model coefficients, the formal errors should be inflated by a factor of three. This coincides with the noise floor and the repeatability of the model coefficients and it captures almost all of the differences that are caused by different estimation techniques. The impact of analysis options is small but significant when changing troposphere parameterization or including harmonic station position variations.

Artz, Thomas↗
DOE OSTI2024

Measuring Impact: Evaluating Thermal Zoning Simplification on Energy Efficiency Measures Analysis

Building Energy Modeling (BEM) is a versatile tool for designing, retrofitting, ensuring code compliance, obtaining certifications, qualifying for incentives, and enabling real-time building control. However, capturing all the details of building geometry for thermal zoning can be time-consuming, costly, and sometimes computationally challenging. As a result, modelers have been applying zoning simplification based on factors such as space functions and internal loads, as well as relying on their experience and judgment while adhering to zoning rules outlined in industry standards. Despite the prevalence of this common practice, a notable gap exists in the literature regarding studies quantifying the influence of simplified thermal zoning on the evaluation of Energy Efficiency Measures (EEMs). Recognizing this gap, this paper seeks to contribute to the field by enhancing the understanding of how the simplification of thermal zoning influences the evaluation of EEMs against a baseline design. The study utilized a medium office prototype model with a detailed floor plan featuring over 20 zones per floor covering diverse functional spaces with varying internal loads and occupancy schedules. A standard thermal zoning strategy outlined in ASHRAE Standard 90.1 Appendix G was employed as the simplified zoning method. This strategy condenses the zoning into a core zone and four perimeter zones per floor. It was compared with the detailed zoning approach, which involves one zone per space. Common Energy EEMs, such as enhanced envelope, high-efficiency appliances and equipment, and HVAC controls, were individually implemented and evaluated. The results indicate that the performance comparison between the two zoning methods varies depending on the type of measures considered. Basic measures, such as adding wall insulation, demonstrate similar energy impacts, while advanced HVAC control measures, such as static pressure reset, exhibit a more substantial difference that cannot be overlooked.

Xie, Jiarong↗
DOE OSTI2017

Physiologically based pharmacokinetic modeling of human exposure to perfluorooctanoic acid suggests historical non drinking-water exposures are important for predicting current serum concentrations

Manufacturing of perfluorooctanoic acid (PFOA), a synthetic chemical with a long half-life in humans, peaked between 1970 and 2002, and has since diminished. In the United States, PFOA is detected in the blood of > 99% of people tested, but serum concentrations have decreased since 1999. Much is known about exposure to PFOA in drinking water; however, the impact of non-drinking water PFOA exposure on serum PFOA concentrations is not well characterized. The objective of this research is to apply physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) modeling and Monte Carlo analysis to evaluate the impact of historic non-drinking water PFOA exposure on serum PFOA concentrations. In vitro to in vivo extrapolation was utilized to inform descriptions of PFOA transport in the kidney. Monte Carlo simulations were incorporated to evaluate factors that account for the large inter-individual variability of serum PFOA concentrations measured in individuals from North Alabama in 2010 and 2016, and the Mid-Ohio River Valley between 2005 and 2008. Predicted serum PFOA concentrations were within two-fold of experimental data. With incorporation of Monte Carlo simulations, the model successfully tracked the large variability of serum PFOA concentrations measured in populations from the Mid-Ohio River Valley. Simulation of exposure in a population of 45 adults from North Alabama successfully predicted 98% of individual serum PFOA concentrations measured in 2010 and 2016, respectively, when non-drinking water ingestion of PFOA exposure was included. Variation in serum PFOA concentrations may be due to inter-individual variability in the disposition of PFOA and potentially elevated historical non-drinking water exposures. - Highlights: • PBPK modeling and Monte Carlo analysis applied to evaluate historic PFOA exposure. • In vitro to in vivo extrapolation informed description of PFOA transport in kidney. • Model predicted large range of serum PFOA concentrations in two communities. • Variation in serum concentrations may be due to historic non-drinking water exposure.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2015

The global gridded crop model intercomparison: Data and modeling protocols for Phase 1 (v1.0)

We present protocols and input data for Phase 1 of the Global Gridded Crop Model Intercomparison, a project of the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP). The project consist of global simulations of yields, phenologies, and many land-surface fluxes using 12–15 modeling groups for many crops, climate forcing data sets, and scenarios over the historical period from 1948 to 2012. The primary outcomes of the project include (1) a detailed comparison of the major differences and similarities among global models commonly used for large-scale climate impact assessment, (2) an evaluation of model and ensemble hindcasting skill, (3) quantification of key uncertainties from climate input data, model choice, and other sources, and (4) a multi-model analysis of the agricultural impacts of large-scale climate extremes from the historical record.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Assessing health and environmental impacts of solvents for producing perovskite solar cells

Halide perovskites are poised as a game-changing semiconductor system with diverse applications in optoelectronics. Industrial entities aim to commercialize perovskite technologies because of high performance but also because this type of semiconductor can be processed from solution, a feature enabling low cost and fast production. In this work, we analyse the health and environmental impacts of eight solvents commonly used in perovskite processing. We consider first- and higher-order ramifications of each solvent on an industrial scale such as solvent production, use/removal, emissions and potential end-of-life treatments. Further, we consider the energy of evaporation for each solvent, air emission, condensation and subsequent incineration, reuse or distillation for solvent recycling, and apply a full end-of-life analysis. For human health impact, we use the ‘USEtox’ method but also consider toxicity data beyond carcinogenic classifications. We find that dimethyl sulfoxide has the lowest total impact, by being the most environmentally friendly and least deleterious to human health of the solvents considered. The analysis of the effects of these solvents on human health and the environment provides guidance for sustainable development of this new technology.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2016

Dispersion controlled by permeable surfaces: surface properties and scaling

Permeable and porous surfaces are common in natural and engineered systems. Flow and transport above such surfaces are significantly affected by the surface properties, e.g. matrix porosity and permeability. However, the relationship between such properties and macroscopic solute transport is largely unknown. In this work, we focus on mass transport in a two-dimensional channel with permeable porous walls under fully developed laminar flow conditions. By means of perturbation theory and asymptotic analysis, we derive the set of upscaled equations describing mass transport in the coupled channel–porous-matrix system and an analytical expression relating the dispersion coefficient with the properties of the surface, namely porosity and permeability. Our analysis shows that their impact on the dispersion coefficient strongly depends on the magnitude of the Péclet number, i.e. on the interplay between diffusive and advective mass transport. Additionally, we demonstrate different scaling behaviours of the dispersion coefficient for thin or thick porous matrices. Our analysis shows the possibility of controlling the dispersion coefficient, i.e. transverse mixing, by either active (i.e. changing the operating conditions) or passive mechanisms (i.e. controlling matrix effective properties) for a given Péclet number. By elucidating the impact of matrix porosity and permeability on solute transport, our upscaled model lays the foundation for the improved understanding, control and design of microporous coatings with targeted macroscopic transport features.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
NASA NTRS2000

Charged Particle Environment Definition for NGST: L2 Plasma Environment Statistics

The plasma environment encountered by the Next Generation Space Telescope satellite in a halo orbit about L2 can include the Earth's magnetotail and magnetosheath in addition to the solar wind depending on the orbital radius chosen for the mission. Analysis of plasma environment impacts on the satellite requires knowledge of the average and extreme plasma characteristics to assess the magnitude of spacecraft charging and materials degradation expected for the mission lifetime. This report describes the analysis of plasma data from instruments onboard the IMP 8 and Geotail spacecraft used to produce the plasma database for the LRAD engineering-level phenomenology code developed to provide the NGST L2 environment definition.

Minow, Joseph I.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Improving Quantification of Medical Evacuation Risk for Human Spaceflight in the IMPACT Model

Traditionally, mission planners have used a heuristic and qualitative approach to design medical systems based on prior experience however this approach may result in high variability and implicit bias to design and could put missions and crewmembers at risk. The Informing Mission Planning through Analysis of Complex Tradespaces (IMPACT) tool is a probabilistic risk assessment tool designed by NASA to model medical risk in long duration missions outside of low earth orbit (LEO). This tool can quantify risk metrics such as risk of crewmember death, loss of crew task time, and the need for medical evacuation to better inform and augment the more traditional approach to medical system design. The risk metric of Return to Definitive Care (RTDC) represents the likelihood of requiring medical evacuation and has been difficult to quantify in a reliable and standardized manner. Initial development of the RTDC metric was constrained due to the complexity of a medical evacuation decision and the lack of prior spaceflight data and this presentation will discuss the review and improvement process used to increase model accuracy and fidelity.

Prashant Parmar↗
DOE OSTI2017

Wettability impact on supercritical CO 2 capillary trapping: Pore-scale visualization and quantification

How the wettability of pore surfaces affects supercritical (sc) CO 2 capillary trapping in geologic carbon sequestration (GCS) is not well understood, and available evidence appears inconsistent. Using a high-pressure micromodel-microscopy system with image analysis, we studied the impact of wettability on scCO 2 capillary trapping during short-term brine flooding (80 s, 8–667 pore volumes). Experiments on brine displacing scCO 2 were conducted at 8.5 MPa and 45°C in water-wet (static contact angle $\theta$ $20° ± 8°$) and intermediate-wet ($\theta$ $94° ± 13°$) homogeneous micromodels under four different flow rates (capillary number Ca ranging from 9 x 10 -6 to 8 x 10 -4 ) with a total of eight conditions (four replicates for each). Brine invasion processes were recorded and statistical analysis was performed for over 2000 images of scCO 2 saturations, and scCO 2 cluster characteristics. The trapped scCO 2 saturation under intermediate-wet conditions is 15% higher than under water-wet conditions under the slowest flow rate ( Ca 9 x 10 -6 ). Based on the visualization and scCO 2 cluster analysis, we show that the scCO 2 trapping process in our micromodels is governed by bypass trapping that is enhanced by the larger contact angle. Smaller contact angles enhance cooperative pore filling and widen brine fingers (or channels), leading to smaller volumes of scCO 2 being bypassed. Increased flow rates suppress this wettability effect.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2001

The impact of Doppler lidar wind observations on a single-level meteorological analysis

Through the use of observation operators, modern data assimilation systems have the capability to ingest observations of quantities that are not themselves model variables, but are mathematically related to those variables. An example of this are the so-called LOS (line of sight) winds that a Doppler wind Lidar can provide. The model - or data assimilation system - needs information about both components of the horizontal wind vectors, whereas the observations in this case only provide the projection of the wind vector onto a given direction. The analyzed value is then calculated essentially based on a comparison between the observation itself and the model-simulated value of the observed quantity. However, in order to assess the expected impact of such an observing system, it is important to examine the extent to which a meteorological analysis can be constrained by the LOS winds. The answer to this question depends on the fundamental character of the atmospheric flow fields that are analyzed, but more importantly it also depends on the real and assumed error covariance characteristics of these fields. A single-level wind analysis system designed to explore these issues has been built at the NASA Data Assimilation Office. In this system, simulated wind observations can be evaluated in terms of their impact on the analysis quality under various assumptions about their spatial distribution and error characteristics and about the error covariance of the background fields. The basic design of the system will be presented along with experimental results obtained with it. In particular, the value of simultaneously measuring LOS winds along two different directions for a given location will be discussed.

Riishojgaard, L. P.↗
DOE OSTI2025

Energy, greenhouse gas, and water life cycle analysis of synthetic graphite anode production in the United States

This study presents a comprehensive life cycle analysis of potential synthetic graphite battery anode material (BAM) production in the U.S. based on industrial-scale data. The analysis focuses on three impacts: greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, total energy use, and water consumption. We also conducted sensitivity analyses to evaluate the effect of variation in process parameters and energy sources used for synthetic graphite BAM production on its life cycle GHG emissions. A detailed supply chain analysis of graphite BAM in the U.S. was also undertaken, along with a study of its associated GHG emissions. The results show GHG emissions of 29.7 kg CO 2 -eq. per kg BAM, total energy use of 580 MJ kg −1 BAM, and water consumption of 121 L kg −1 BAM for the baseline condition. The graphitization step is a major process hotspot, contributing to over 74% of all impacts. This is attributed to the energy and material input requirements for this step, particularly through the use of crucibles. Across the entire synthetic graphite production process, electricity is the primary contributor, followed by crucibles used in graphite block production, and then calcined petroleum coke. Sensitivity analyses indicate that improvement in micronization yield, reuse of crucibles, and use of low-carbon nuclear energy can significantly reduce GHG emissions of potential domestic graphite production (by ∼70%). Supply chain analysis identified major graphite BAM sources in the U.S. and showed that the U.S. has a competitive advantage in domestic production of synthetic graphite BAM in terms of reduced life cycle GHG emissions compared to present-day imported sources (by ∼20%).

Battery anode↗
DOE OSTI2018

The social vulnerability approach for social impact assessment

Highlights: • Social vulnerability is a process in two stages: the Structural and the Acquired.• SVA is apt for the diagnosis and management of social impacts caused by projects. • SVA is based on the Natural disaster and the Assets Based approaches. • Structural Vulnerability influences the very nature of the project. • Understanding the project as a possible hazard improves its analysis. - Abstract: The Social Impact Assessment (SIA) literature has highlighted the need to focus attention on the most vulnerable groups to improve the management of socio-environmental risk. However, methodological proposals to introduce vulnerability in SIAs are still incipient. The aim of this article is to present a proposal to analyze the role of social vulnerability in the production of risks generated by large infrastructure projects. Taking the theoretical-methodological advances made from the social vulnerability and natural disasters approach, and from the social vulnerability, development and poverty approaches, we have designed a Social Vulnerability Approach (SVA) which we aim at incorporating into the SIA of large infrastructure projects. To illustrate our methodological proposal, the case of the socio-environmental conflict generated by the HydroAysen Project (which entailed the construction of a set of hydroelectric dams on the Baker and Pascua rivers in the Chilean Patagonia region) has been selected. Our proposal allows us to identify elements of vulnerability throughout the whole project cycle and, therefore, windows for intervention in order to reduce social vulnerability as well as other kind of hazards that large infrastructure projects may generate on affected populations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2016

Impact of Concrete Composition on Criticality at Nuclear Power Plants

There is no standard concrete composition for criticality analysis. Concrete is a composite material composed of aggregate bonded together with cement which hardens over time. Aggregate consists of large chunks of material in a concrete mix, generally coarse gravel or crushed rocks such as limestone or granite, along with finer materials such as sand. Water is mixed with the dry powder cement/aggregate blend. The concrete solidifies and hardens. After the concrete is hardened there can be water loss with time. The main components in concrete generally have small neutron cross sections so the absorption cross section is often dominated by the impurities. The content of the impurities are rarely documented in a manner that is generally needed for crediting in a criticality analysis. This paper assesses the impact of conservative concrete on a sample dry storage rack and a spent fuel pool. The SCALE computer code has four types of concrete in the Standard Composition Library.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2017

H2@Scale: Technical and Economic Potential of Hydrogen as an Energy Intermediate

The H2@Scale concept is focused on developing hydrogen as an energy carrier and using hydrogen's properties to improve the national energy system. Specifically hydrogen has the abilities to (1) supply a clean energy source for industry and transportation and (2) increase the profitability of variable renewable electricity generators such as wind turbines and solar photovoltaic (PV) farms by providing value for otherwise potentially-curtailed electricity. Thus the concept also has the potential to reduce oil dependency by providing a low-carbon fuel for fuel cell electric vehicles (FCEVs), reduce emissions of carbon dioxide and pollutants such as NOx, and support domestic energy production, manufacturing, and U.S. economic competitiveness. The analysis reported here focuses on the potential market size and value proposition for the H2@Scale concept. It involves three analysis phases: 1. Initial phase estimating the technical potential for hydrogen markets and the resources required to meet them; 2. National-scale analysis of the economic potential for hydrogen and the interactions between willingness to pay by hydrogen users and the cost to produce hydrogen from various sources; and 3. In-depth analysis of spatial and economic issues impacting hydrogen production and utilization and the markets. Preliminary analysis of the technical potential indicates that the technical potential for hydrogen use is approximately 60 million metric tons (MMT) annually for light duty FCEVs, heavy duty vehicles, ammonia production, oil refining, biofuel hydrotreating, metals refining, and injection into the natural gas system. The technical potential of utility-scale PV and wind generation independently are much greater than that necessary to produce 60 MMT / year hydrogen. Uranium, natural gas, and coal reserves are each sufficient to produce 60 MMT / year hydrogen in addition to their current uses for decades to centuries. National estimates of the economic potential of hydrogen production using steam methane reforming of natural gas, high temperature electrolysis coupled with nuclear power plants, and low temperature electrolysis are reported. To generate the estimates, supply curves for those technologies are used. They are compared to demand curves that describe the market size for hydrogen uses and willingness to pay for that hydrogen. Scenarios are developed at prices where supply meets demand and are used to estimate energy use, emissions, and economic impacts.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗