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NASA NTRS2009

Layered Systems Engineering Engines

A notation is described for depicting the relationships between multiple, contemporaneous systems engineering efforts undertaken within a multi-layer system-of-systems hierarchy. We combined the concepts of remoteness of activity from the end customer, depiction of activity on a timeline, and data flow to create a new kind of diagram which we call a "Layered Vee Diagram." This notation is an advance over previous notations because it is able to be simultaneously precise about activity, level of granularity, product exchanges, and timing; these advances provide systems engineering managers a significantly improved ability to express and understand the relationships between many systems engineering efforts. Using the new notation, we obtain a key insight into the relationship between project duration and the strategy selected for chaining the systems engineering effort between layers, as well as insights into the costs, opportunities, and risks associated with alternate chaining strategies.

Vee Diagram↗

NASA NTRS2015

NDARC - NASA Design and Analysis of Rotorcraft

The NASA Design and Analysis of Rotorcraft (NDARC) software is an aircraft system analysis tool that supports both conceptual design efforts and technology impact assessments. The principal tasks are to design (or size) a rotorcraft to meet specified requirements, including vertical takeoff and landing (VTOL) operation, and then analyze the performance of the aircraft for a set of conditions. For broad and lasting utility, it is important that the code have the capability to model general rotorcraft configurations, and estimate the performance and weights of advanced rotor concepts. The architecture of the NDARC code accommodates configuration flexibility, a hierarchy of models, and ultimately multidisciplinary design, analysis, and optimization. Initially the software is implemented with low-fidelity models, typically appropriate for the conceptual design environment. An NDARC job consists of one or more cases, each case optionally performing design and analysis tasks. The design task involves sizing the rotorcraft to satisfy specified design conditions and missions. The analysis tasks can include off-design mission performance calculation, flight performance calculation for point operating conditions, and generation of subsystem or component performance maps. For analysis tasks, the aircraft description can come from the sizing task, from a previous case or a previous NDARC job, or be independently generated (typically the description of an existing aircraft). The aircraft consists of a set of components, including fuselage, rotors, wings, tails, and propulsion. For each component, attributes such as performance, drag, and weight can be calculated; and the aircraft attributes are obtained from the sum of the component attributes. Description and analysis of conventional rotorcraft configurations is facilitated, while retaining the capability to model novel and advanced concepts. Specific rotorcraft configurations considered are single-main-rotor and tail-rotor helicopter, tandem helicopter, coaxial helicopter, and tiltrotor. The architecture of the code accommodates addition of new or higher-fidelity attribute models for a component, as well as addition of new components.

Analysis↗

NASA NTRS2015

Technology Alignment and Portfolio Prioritization (TAPP): Advanced Methods in Strategic Analysis, Technology Forecasting and Long Term Planning for Human Exploration and Operations, Advanced Exploration Systems and Advanced Concepts

The Advanced Concepts Office (ACO) at NASA, Marshall Space Flight Center is expanding its current technology assessment methodologies. ACO is developing a framework called TAPP that uses a variety of methods, such as association mining and rule learning from data mining, structure development using a Technological Innovation System (TIS), and social network modeling to measure structural relationships. The role of ACO is to 1) produce a broad spectrum of ideas and alternatives for a variety of NASA's missions, 2) determine mission architecture feasibility and appropriateness to NASA's strategic plans, and 3) define a project in enough detail to establish an initial baseline capable of meeting mission objectives ACO's role supports the decision-making process associated with the maturation of concepts for traveling through, living in, and understanding space. ACO performs concept studies and technology assessments to determine the degree of alignment between mission objectives and new technologies. The first step in technology assessment is to identify the current technology maturity in terms of a technology readiness level (TRL). The second step is to determine the difficulty associated with advancing a technology from one state to the next state. NASA has used TRLs since 1970 and ACO formalized them in 1995. The DoD, ESA, Oil & Gas, and DoE have adopted TRLs as a means to assess technology maturity. However, "with the emergence of more complex systems and system of systems, it has been increasingly recognized that TRL assessments have limitations, especially when considering [the] integration of complex systems." When performing the second step in a technology assessment, NASA requires that an Advancement Degree of Difficulty (AD2) method be utilized. NASA has used and developed or used a variety of methods to perform this step: Expert Opinion or Delphi Approach, Value Engineering or Value Stream, Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP), Technique for the Order of Prioritization by Similarity to Ideal Solution (TOPSIS), and other multi‐criteria decision-making methods. These methods can be labor-intensive, often contain cognitive or parochial bias, and do not consider the competing prioritization between mission architectures. Strategic Decision-Making (SDM) processes cannot be properly understood unless the context of the technology is understood. This makes assessing technological change particularly challenging due to the relationships "between incumbent technology and the incumbent (innovation) system in relation to the emerging technology and the emerging innovation system." The central idea in technology dynamics is to consider all activities that contribute to the development, diffusion, and use of innovations as system functions. Bergek defines system functions within a TIS to address what is actually happening and has a direct influence on the ultimate performance of the system and technology development. ACO uses similar metrics and is expanding these metrics to account for the structure and context of the technology. At NASA technology and strategy is strongly interrelated. NASA's Strategic Space Technology Investment Plan (SSTIP) prioritizes those technologies essential to the pursuit of NASA's missions and national interests. The SSTIP is strongly coupled with NASA's Technology Roadmaps to provide investment guidance during the next four years, within a twenty-year horizon. This paper discusses the methods ACO is currently developing to better perform technology assessments while taking into consideration Strategic Alignment, Technology Forecasting, and Long Term Planning.

Funaro, Gregory V.↗

NASA NTRS2015

Interannual to Decadal Variability of Ocean Evaporation as Viewed from Climate Reanalyses

Questions we'll address: Given the uncoupled framework of "AMIP" (Atmosphere Model Inter-comparison Project) experiments, what can they tell us regarding evaporation variability? Do Reduced Observations Reanalyses (RedObs) using Surface Fluxes and Clouds (SFC) pressure (and wind) provide a more realistic picture of evaporation variability? What signals of interannual variability (e.g. El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO)) and decadal variability (Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO)) are detectable with this hierarchy of evaporation estimates?

Climate Variability↗

NASA NTRS2016

Cost-Benefit Analysis for the Advanced Near Net Shape Technology (ANNST) Method for Fabricating Stiffened Cylinders

This cost-benefit analysis assesses the benefits of the Advanced Near Net Shape Technology (ANNST) manufacturing process for fabricating integrally stiffened cylinders. These preliminary, rough order-of-magnitude results report a 46 to 58 percent reduction in production costs and a 7-percent reduction in weight over the conventional metallic manufacturing technique used in this study for comparison. Production cost savings of 35 to 58 percent were reported over the composite manufacturing technique used in this study for comparison; however, the ANNST concept was heavier. In this study, the predicted return on investment of equipment required for the ANNST method was ten cryogenic tank barrels when compared with conventional metallic manufacturing. The ANNST method was compared with the conventional multi-piece metallic construction and composite processes for fabricating integrally stiffened cylinders. A case study compared these three alternatives for manufacturing a cylinder of specified geometry, with particular focus placed on production costs and process complexity, with cost analyses performed by the analogy and parametric methods. Furthermore, a scalability study was conducted for three tank diameters to assess the highest potential payoff of the ANNST process for manufacture of large-diameter cryogenic tanks. The analytical hierarchy process (AHP) was subsequently used with a group of selected subject matter experts to assess the value of the various benefits achieved by the ANNST method for potential stakeholders. The AHP study results revealed that decreased final cylinder mass and quality assurance were the most valued benefits of cylinder manufacturing methods, therefore emphasizing the relevance of the benefits achieved with the ANNST process for future projects.

Stoner, Mary Cecilia↗

NASA NTRS2016

Introduction to COFFE: The Next-Generation HPCMP CREATE-AV CFD Solver

HPCMP CREATE-AV Conservative Field Finite Element (COFFE) is a modular, extensible, robust numerical solver for the Navier-Stokes equations that invokes modularity and extensibility from its first principles. COFFE implores a flexible, class-based hierarchy that provides a modular approach consisting of discretization, physics, parallelization, and linear algebra components. These components are developed with modern software engineering principles to ensure ease of uptake from a user's or developer's perspective. The Streamwise Upwind/Petrov-Galerkin (SU/PG) method is utilized to discretize the compressible Reynolds-Averaged Navier-Stokes (RANS) equations tightly coupled with a variety of turbulence models. The mathematics and the philosophy of the methodology that makes up COFFE are presented.

Glasby, Ryan S.↗

NASA NTRS2016

Cost-Benefit Analysis for the Advanced Near Net Shape Technology (ANNST) Method for Fabricating Stiffened Cylinders

Low Technology Readiness Levels (TRLs) and high levels of uncertainty make it challenging to develop cost estimates of new technologies in the R&D phase. It is however essential for NASA to understand the costs and benefits associated with novel concepts, in order to prioritize research investments and evaluate the potential for technology transfer and commercialization. This paper proposes a framework to perform a cost-benefit analysis of a technology in the R&D phase. This framework was developed and used to assess the Advanced Near Net Shape Technology (ANNST) manufacturing process for fabricating integrally stiffened cylinders. The ANNST method was compared with the conventional multi-piece metallic construction and composite processes for fabricating integrally stiffened cylinders. Following the definition of a case study for a cryogenic tank cylinder of specified geometry, data was gathered through interviews with Subject Matter Experts (SMEs), with particular focus placed on production costs and process complexity. This data served as the basis to produce process flowcharts and timelines, mass estimates, and rough order-of-magnitude cost and schedule estimates. The scalability of the results was subsequently investigated to understand the variability of the results based on tank size. Lastly, once costs and benefits were identified, the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) was used to assess the relative value of these achieved benefits for potential stakeholders. These preliminary, rough order-of-magnitude results predict a 46 to 58 percent reduction in production costs and a 7-percent reduction in weight over the conventional metallic manufacturing technique used in this study for comparison. Compared to the composite manufacturing technique, these results predict cost savings of 35 to 58 percent; however, the ANNST concept was heavier. In this study, the predicted return on investment of equipment required for the ANNST method was ten cryogenic tank barrels when compared with conventional metallic manufacturing. The AHP study results revealed that decreased final cylinder mass and improved quality assurance were the most valued benefits of cylinder manufacturing methods, therefore emphasizing the relevance of the benefits achieved with the ANNST process for future projects.

Ivanco, Marie L.↗

NASA NTRS2016

AirSTAR Hardware and Software Design for Beyond Visual Range Flight Research

The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Airborne Subscale Transport Aircraft Research (AirSTAR) Unmanned Aerial System (UAS) is a facility developed to study the flight dynamics of vehicles in emergency conditions, in support of aviation safety research. The system was upgraded to have its operational range significantly expanded, going beyond the line of sight of a ground-based pilot. A redesign of the airborne flight hardware was undertaken, as well as significant changes to the software base, in order to provide appropriate autonomous behavior in response to a number of potential failures and hazards. Ground hardware and system monitors were also upgraded to include redundant communication links, including ADS-B based position displays and an independent flight termination system. The design included both custom and commercially available avionics, combined to allow flexibility in flight experiment design while still benefiting from tested configurations in reversionary flight modes. A similar hierarchy was employed in the software architecture, to allow research codes to be tested, with a fallback to more thoroughly validated flight controls. As a remotely piloted facility, ground systems were also developed to ensure the flight modes and system state were communicated to ground operations personnel in real-time. Presented in this paper is a general overview of the concept of operations for beyond visual range flight, and a detailed review of the airborne hardware and software design. This discussion is held in the context of the safety and procedural requirements that drove many of the design decisions for the AirSTAR UAS Beyond Visual Range capability.

Laughter, Sean↗

NASA NTRS2016

NDARC NASA Design and Analysis of Rotorcraft - Input, Appendix 2

The NASA Design and Analysis of Rotorcraft (NDARC) software is an aircraft system analysis tool that supports both conceptual design efforts and technology impact assessments. The principal tasks are to design (or size) a rotorcraft to meet specified requirements, including vertical takeoff and landing (VTOL) operation, and then analyze the performance of the aircraft for a set of conditions. For broad and lasting utility, it is important that the code have the capability to model general rotorcraft configurations, and estimate the performance and weights of advanced rotor concepts. The architecture of the NDARC code accommodates configuration exibility, a hierarchy of models, and ultimately multidisciplinary design, analysis, and optimization. Initially the software is implemented with low-fidelity models, typically appropriate for the conceptual design environment. An NDARC job consists of one or more cases, each case optionally performing design and analysis tasks. The design task involves sizing the rotorcraft to satisfy specified design conditions and missions. The analysis tasks can include off-design mission performance calculation, flight performance calculation for point operating conditions, and generation of subsystem or component performance maps. For analysis tasks, the aircraft description can come from the sizing task, from a previous case or a previous NDARC job, or be independently generated (typically the description of an existing aircraft). The aircraft consists of a set of components, including fuselage, rotors, wings, tails, and propulsion. For each component, attributes such as performance, drag, and weight can be calculated; and the aircraft attributes are obtained from the sum of the component attributes. Description and analysis of conventional rotorcraft configurations is facilitated, while retaining the capability to model novel and advanced concepts. Specific rotorcraft configurations considered are single-main-rotor and tail-rotor helicopter, tandem helicopter, coaxial helicopter, and tilt-rotor. The architecture of the code accommodates addition of new or higher-fidelity attribute models for a component, as well as addition of new components.

Appendix↗

NASA NTRS2016

NDARC NASA Design and Analysis of Rotorcraft Theory Appendix 1

Design and Analysis↗

NASA NTRS2016

Identifying and Analyzing Uncertainty Structures in the TRMM Microwave Imager Precipitation Product over Tropical Ocean Basins

Despite continuous improvements in microwave sensors and retrieval algorithms, our understanding of precipitation uncertainty is quite limited, due primarily to inconsistent findings in studies that compare satellite estimates to in situ observations over different parts of the world. This study seeks to characterize the temporal and spatial properties of uncertainty in the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission Microwave Imager surface rainfall product over tropical ocean basins. Two uncertainty analysis frameworks are introduced to qualitatively evaluate the properties of uncertainty under a hierarchy of spatiotemporal data resolutions. The first framework (i.e. 'climate method') demonstrates that, apart from random errors and regionally dependent biases, a large component of the overall precipitation uncertainty is manifested in cyclical patterns that are closely related to large-scale atmospheric modes of variability. By estimating the magnitudes of major uncertainty sources independently, the climate method is able to explain 45-88% of the monthly uncertainty variability. The percentage is largely resolution dependent (with the lowest percentage explained associated with a 1 deg x 1 deg spatial/1 month temporal resolution, and highest associated with a 3 deg x 3 deg spatial/3 month temporal resolution). The second framework (i.e. 'weather method') explains regional mean precipitation uncertainty as a summation of uncertainties associated with individual precipitation systems. By further assuming that self-similar recurring precipitation systems yield qualitatively comparable precipitation uncertainties, the weather method can consistently resolve about 50 % of the daily uncertainty variability, with only limited dependence on the regions of interest.

Climate↗

NASA NTRS2016

Performance Evaluation of an Intel Haswell- and Ivy Bridge-Based Supercomputer Using Scientific and Engineering Applications

We present a performance evaluation conducted on a production supercomputer of the Intel Xeon Processor E5- 2680v3, a twelve-core implementation of the fourth-generation Haswell architecture, and compare it with Intel Xeon Processor E5-2680v2, an Ivy Bridge implementation of the third-generation Sandy Bridge architecture. Several new architectural features have been incorporated in Haswell including improvements in all levels of the memory hierarchy as well as improvements to vector instructions and power management. We critically evaluate these new features of Haswell and compare with Ivy Bridge using several low-level benchmarks including subset of HPCC, HPCG and four full-scale scientific and engineering applications. We also present a model to predict the performance of HPCG and Cart3D within 5%, and Overflow within 10% accuracy.

Ivy Bridge↗

NASA NTRS2017

Measurement of Cohesion in Asteroid Regolith Materials

A study has been initiated to examine cohesive forces in asteroid materials to contribute to a better understanding of low density bodies such as asteroids and Phobos, and assist in exploration missions involving interaction with their surface material. The test specimen used in this study was a lightly weathered CM2 meteorite which is spectroscopically similar to Type C (carbonaceous) asteroids, and thought to have representative surface chemistry. To account for sample heterogeneity, adhesion forces were measured between the CM2 sample and its five primary mineral phase components. These adhesive forces bound the range of cohesive force that can be expected for the bulk material. All materials were characterized using a variety of optical and spectroscopic methods. Adhesive forces on the order of 50 to 400 μN were measured using a torsion balance in an ultrahigh vacuum chamber. The mineral samples exhibited clearly different adhesive strengths in the following hierarchy: Serpentine > Siderite > Bronzite > Olivine ≈ Fe-Ni.

Asteroids↗

NASA NTRS2017

The Cloud Feedback Model Intercomparison Project (CFMIP) contribution to CMIP6.

The primary objective of CFMIP is to inform future assessments of cloud feedbacks through improved understanding of cloud-climate feedback mechanisms and better evaluation of cloud processes and cloud feedbacks in climate models. However, the CFMIP approach is also increasingly being used to understand other aspects of climate change, and so a second objective has now been introduced, to improve understanding of circulation, regional-scale precipitation, and non-linear changes. CFMIP is supporting ongoing model inter-comparison activities by coordinating a hierarchy of targeted experiments for CMIP6, along with a set of cloud-related output diagnostics. CFMIP contributes primarily to addressing the CMIP6 questions 'How does the Earth system respond to forcing?' and 'What are the origins and consequences of systematic model biases?' and supports the activities of the WCRP Grand Challenge on Clouds, Circulation and Climate Sensitivity. A compact set of Tier 1 experiments is proposed for CMIP6 to address this question: (1) what are the physical mechanisms underlying the range of cloud feedbacks and cloud adjustments predicted by climate models, and which models have the most credible cloud feedbacks? Additional Tier 2 experiments are proposed to address the following questions. (2) Are cloud feedbacks consistent for climate cooling and warming, and if not, why? (3) How do cloud-radiative effects impact the structure, the strength and the variability of the general atmospheric circulation in present and future climates? (4) How do responses in the climate system due to changes in solar forcing differ from changes due to CO2, and is the response sensitive to the sign of the forcing? (5) To what extent is regional climate change per CO2 doubling state-dependent (non-linear), and why? (6) Are climate feedbacks during the 20th century different to those acting on long-term climate change and climate sensitivity? (7) How do regional climate responses (e.g. in precipitation) and their uncertainties in coupled models arise from the combination of different aspects of CO2 forcing and sea surface warming? CFMIP also proposes a number of additional model outputs in the CMIP DECK, CMIP6 Historical and CMIP6 CFMIP experiments, including COSP simulator outputs and process diagnostics to address the following questions. 1. How well do clouds and other relevant variables simulated by models agree with observations? 2. What physical processes and mechanisms are important for a credible simulation of clouds, cloud feedbacks and cloud adjustments in climate models? 3. Which models have the most credible representations of processes relevant to the simulation of clouds? 4. How do clouds and their changes interact with other elements of the climate system?

carbon dioxide↗

NASA NTRS2016

Model Based Mission Assurance in a Model Based Systems Engineering (MBSE) Framework: State-of-the-Art Assessment

This report explores the current state of the art of Safety and Mission Assurance (S&MA) in projects that have shifted towards Model Based Systems Engineering (MBSE). Its goal is to provide insight into how NASA’s Office of Safety and Mission Assurance (OSMA) should respond to this shift. In MBSE, systems engineering information is organized and represented in models: rigorous computer-based representations, which collectively make many activities easier to perform, less error prone, and scalable. S&MA practices must shift accordingly. The “Objective Structure Hierarchies” recently developed by OSMA provide the framework for understanding this shift. Although the objectives themselves will remain constant, S&MA practices (activities, processes, tools) to achieve them are subject to change. This report presents insights derived from literature studies and interviews. The literature studies gleaned assurance implications from reports of space-related applications of MBSE. The interviews with knowledgeable S&MA and MBSE personnel discovered concerns and ideas for how assurance may adapt. Preliminary findings and observations are presented on the state of practice of S&MA with respect to MBSE, how it is already changing, and how it is likely to change further. Finally, recommendations are provided on how to foster the evolution of S&MA to best fit with MBSE.

Aerospace engineering↗

NASA NTRS2017

Structure in the 3D Galaxy Distribution. III. Fourier Transforming the Universe: Phase and Power Spectra

We demonstrate the effectiveness of a relatively straightforward analysis of the complex 3D Fourier transform of galaxy coordinates derived from redshift surveys. Numerical demonstrations of this approach are carried out on a volume-limited sample of the Sloan Digital Sky Survey redshift survey. The direct unbinned transform yields a complex 3D data cube quite similar to that from the Fast Fourier Transform of finely binned galaxy positions. In both cases, deconvolution of the sampling window function yields estimates of the true transform. Simple power spectrum estimates from these transforms are roughly consistent with those using more elaborate methods. The complex Fourier transform characterizes spatial distributional properties beyond the power spectrum in a manner different from (and we argue is more easily interpreted than) the conventional multipoint hierarchy. We identify some threads of modern large-scale inference methodology that will presumably yield detections in new wider and deeper surveys.

Galaxies↗

NASA NTRS2015

A Tool for Model-Based Generation of Scenario-driven Electric Power Load Profiles

Power consumption during all phases of spacecraft flight is of great interest to the aerospace community. As a result, significant analysis effort is exerted to understand the rates of electrical energy generation and consumption under many operational scenarios of the system. Previously, no standard tool existed for creating and maintaining a power equipment list (PEL) of spacecraft components that consume power, and no standard tool existed for generating power load profiles based on this PEL information during mission design phases. This paper presents the Scenario Power Load Analysis Tool (SPLAT) as a model-based systems engineering tool aiming to solve those problems. SPLAT is a plugin for MagicDraw (No Magic, Inc.) that aids in creating and maintaining a PEL, and also generates a power and temporal variable constraint set, in Maple language syntax, based on specified operational scenarios. The constraint set can be solved in Maple to show electric load profiles (i.e. power consumption from loads over time). SPLAT creates these load profiles from three modeled inputs: 1) a list of system components and their respective power modes, 2) a decomposition hierarchy of the system into these components, and 3) the specification of at least one scenario, which consists of temporal constraints on component power modes. In order to demonstrate how this information is represented in a system model, a notional example of a spacecraft planetary flyby is introduced. This example is also used to explain the overall functionality of SPLAT, and how this is used to generate electric power load profiles. Lastly, a cursory review of the usage of SPLAT on the Cold Atom Laboratory project is presented to show how the tool was used in an actual space hardware design application.

power load profile↗

NASA NTRS2017

Structure in the 3D Galaxy Distribution: III. Fourier Transforming the Universe: Phase and Power Spectra

We demonstrate the effectiveness of a relatively straightforward analysis of the complex 3D Fourier transform of galaxy coordinates derived from redshift surveys. Numerical demonstrations of this approach are carried out on a volume-limited sample of the Sloan Digital Sky Survey redshift survey. The direct unbinned transform yields a complex 3D data cube quite similar to that from the Fast Fourier Transform (FFT) of finely binned galaxy positions. In both cases deconvolution of the sampling window function yields estimates of the true transform. Simple power spectrum estimates from these transforms are roughly consistent with those using more elaborate methods. The complex Fourier transform characterizes spatial distributional properties beyond the power spectrum in a manner different from (and we argue is more easily interpreted than) the conventional multi-point hierarchy. We identify some threads of modern large scale inference methodology that will presumably yield detections in new wider and deeper surveys.

Galactic clusters↗