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At least 1,387 records · Page 77
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2023

At the interfaces of the hydrologic sciences: Connecting water, elements, ecosystems, and people through the major contributions of Dr. Emily Bernhardt

Here, in this paper, we describe the major contributions of Professor Emily Bernhardt to the hydrologic sciences. Dr. Bernhardt’s work addresses how carbon, nutrient, and contaminant dynamics respond to a wide range of environmental perturbations that alter hydrologic dynamics within and connectivity among ecosystems. Her research leverages intensive and extensive field sampling, experimental manipulations, macroscale data harmonization and exploration, and continental to global-scale synthesis activities to uncover key drivers and patterns of the impacts human perturbations have on water and elemental cycles. Dr. Bernhardt’s research program is defined by her ability to ask questions and use approaches that explicitly consider connectivity and interfaces in a variety of ways. Here, we highlight significant contributions from Dr. Bernhardt’s work, organized by connectivity, interfaces, and interactions among and across (1) elemental cycles, (2) ecosystems, (3) watersheds, (4) scales, and (5) disciplines. We conclude with a section on Dr. Bernhardt’s impact on the hydrologic sciences and beyond through her exceptional dedication to mentorship, engagement, and service.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Multi-fidelity Fourier neural operator for fast modeling of large-scale geological carbon storage

Deep learning-based surrogate models have been widely applied in geological carbon storage (GCS) problems to accelerate the prediction of reservoir pressure and CO2 plume migration. Large amounts of data from physics-based numerical simulators are required to train a model to accurately predict the complex physical behaviors associated with this process. In practice, the available training data are always limited in large-scale 3D problems due to the high computational cost. Therefore, we propose to use a multi-fidelity Fourier neural operator (FNO) to solve large-scale GCS problems with more affordable multi-fidelity training datasets. FNO has a desirable grid-invariant property, which simplifies the transfer learning procedure between datasets with different discretization. Here, we first test the model efficacy on a GCS reservoir model being discretized into 110 k grid cells. The multi-fidelity model can predict with accuracy comparable to a high-fidelity model trained with the same amount of high-fidelity data with 81% less data generation costs. We further test the generalizability of the multi-fidelity model on a same reservoir model with a finer discretization of 1 million grid cells. This case was made more challenging by employing high-fidelity and low-fidelity datasets generated by different geostatistical models and reservoir simulators. We observe that the multi-fidelity FNO model can predict pressure fields with reasonable accuracy even when the high-fidelity data are extremely limited. The findings of this study can help for better understanding of the transferability of multi-fidelity deep learning surrogate models.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Quantifying the long-term changes of terrestrial water storage and their driving factors

Global warming is expected to cause changes in terrestrial water storage (TWS) across the land surface, with widespread impacts on ecosystems and society. Although extensive research has been performed to analyze TWS changes and possible drivers during the post-2000 period, longer-term evolution of TWS and associated environmental forcings remain relatively unexplored. In this study, we evaluated the performance of the Energy Exascale Earth System model (E3SM) land model ELM version 1 (ELM v1) in simulating global TWS, and used factorial simulations of ELMv1 to quantify global TWS changes and their drivers during 1948–2012. We found that ELM’s agreed best with existing satellites and reconstruction datasets in temperate regions unaffected by irrigation. Biome- and climate zone-averaged TWS mainly increased at rates between 0 and 10 mm/year over 1948–2012, but the second half of that period saw smaller positive trends than the first half or even negative trends. Climate change explained >80 % of the TWS trends across most biomes and climate zones, followed by land use and land cover change. The physiological and phenological effects of CO2 primarily induced noticeable TWS trends in the more humid biomes and climate zones across different latitudes. In contrast, nitrogen deposition and aerosol deposition generally had smaller and negative impacts across the biomes and climate regions. Among the meteorological drivers analyzed, the long-term average imbalance between precipitation (P), evapotranspiration (E), and runoff (Q) contributed >50 % of the TWS trends in most biomes and climate zones, with nonlinearity being induced by spatially heterogenous changes in E/P and Q/P ratios. The accumulated detrended anomalies in P, E, and Q also often contributed substantially, while the trends difference between P, E, and Q contributed little. Together, these findings unveiled an intensification of the global TWS and its diverse patterns of climate change and different non-withdrawal human-induced alterations, contributing to a more comprehensive understanding and projection of the global water cycle.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

A deep learning-based workflow for fast prediction of 3D state variables in geological carbon storage: A dimension reduction approach

Deep learning (DL) models are extensively used as surrogate models for high-fidelity simulations of multiphase fluid flow in porous media at large scales, enabling fast forecasts of the spatial–temporal evolution of three-dimensional (3D) state variables in geological carbon storage (GCS). However, training these models in high-dimensional space remains computationally demanding and prone to overfitting because of limited training data. This paper presents a novel workflow to address these challenges by integrating dimension reduction (DR) methods. Here, the proposed workflow employed pre-trained DR models to extract the latent variables of geological models and state variables and utilized the multi-layer perceptron (MLP) for constructing mapping functions between the input and output variables in latent spaces. Subsequently, the pre-trained reconstruction models converted the MLP-predicted latent state variables to their original high-dimensional form. Furthermore, we proposed a novel strategy for the DR and reconstruction of 3D saturation fields to account for the unique data characteristics of sparsity, nonuniformity, and discontinuity. The proposed strategy applied PCA and inverse PCA for 2D average saturation fields and developed a DL-based 3D reconstruction model, leveraging three 2D average saturation fields as input to produce a 3D saturation field as output. The pre-training of DR and reconstruction models and training of MLP models were conducted on 84 Gulf of Mexico (GoM) simulations and evaluated on 12 testing simulations. Each simulation contained 720 monthly time steps, with the first 360 months as the injection period and the rest as the post-injection period. The proposed workflow, incorporating DR and DL models, accurately predicts the normalized 3D pressure fields, achieving mean square error (MSE) of 2.92 × 10 -7 compared to the ground truth obtained from a full-physics simulator. Furthermore, the proposed strategy outperformed PCA and convolutional autoencoder (CAE) models on 3D saturation fields, resulting in minor workflow prediction errors with an MSE of 2.93 × 10 -5 . The results suggest the proposed workflow provides sufficient predictive fidelity across temporal and spatial scales, and enables a speedup of 160 times compared to the full-physics simulator, facilitating improved decision-making and risk assessment for large-scale GCS management in real-time scenarios.

3D reconstruction model↗
DOE OSTI2024

Advancing process-based flood frequency analysis for assessing flood hazard and population flood exposure

Recent studies have showcased the use of process-based hydrological models with Stochastic Storm Transposition (SST) techniques to conduct Flood Frequency Analysis (FFA). This framework, referred hereby FFA-SST, has proved to be a robust strategy to estimate peak flows of specific annual exceedance probability (e.g., 100-year peak flow) that can reflect natural and anthropogenic disturbances, including changes in land use and meteorological patterns. With the objective of advancing the FFA-SST framework, this study presents for the first time the use of an Integrated Surface-Subsurface Hydrological Model (ISSHM) to conduct FFA-SST by extending the analysis from peak flow responses to flood extent, enabling a unique view and analysis of flood hazard and population flood exposure at the basin scale. As a proof-of-concept, we used the ISSHM, Advanced Terrestrial Simulator (Amanzi-ATS) model, and the SST model, RainyDay, to conduct FFA-SST by simulating the flood response to 5,000 annual synthetic storm events in a 2,227 $km^2$ Southeast Texas watershed. We demonstrate that ATS, without site-specific calibration, provides a robust process-based representation of peak flows, flood extent, streamflow, evapotranspiration, soil moisture content, and water storage changes. Our results and analyses, covering frequency curves up to a 500-year return period for peak flows, basin inundation fractions, and the number of people exposed to flooding, offer a unique perspective to analyze flood impacts across spatial scales. Overall, this study provides critical insights for flood risk management by extending the FFA-SST framework to include both flood hazard and population flood exposure analyses at the basin scale. Such an approach will empower stakeholders and disaster emergency agencies with a more comprehensive understanding of flood impacts across the entire basin domain, facilitating informed decision-making for flood risk assessment and management.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

A novel conditional generative model for efficient ensemble forecasts of state variables in large-scale geological carbon storage

Integrating monitoring data to efficiently update reservoir pressure and CO 2 plume distribution forecasts presents a significant challenge in geological carbon storage (GCS) applications. Inverse modeling techniques are commonly used to fuse observational data and refine reservoir model parameters, thereby improving state variable forecasts. However, these techniques often rely on linear or Gaussian assumptions, which can limit their effectiveness in accurately predicting state variables. Moreover, simulating large-scale three-dimensional (3D) GCS problems is computationally expensive, making iterative runs in inverse problems prohibitive. To address these challenges, we propose a conditional generative model utilizing the score-based diffusion method for real-time 3D pressure and saturation field distribution predictions. Our approach involves solving the score function with a mini-batch-based Monte Carlo estimator to generate labeled data. This data is subsequently employed to train a fully connected neural network, enabling it to learn the conditional sample generator within a supervised learning framework. This method enables the rapid generation of a large ensemble of predictions, facilitating comprehensive uncertainty quantification of state variables. Here we applied our method to forecast the dynamic 3D distributions of pressure and saturation fields over a 30-year injection period. The statistical assessment with low root mean square error (RMSE) values demonstrates that our method can accurately predict the spatiotemporal distributions of both pressure and saturation fields. Moreover, the developed conditional generative model shows high computational efficiency by generating 100 ensemble forecasts of 3D state variables in less than 10 min. The consistency between ensemble averages and ground truth values further illustrates the model’s capability to capture state variable dynamics during the CO 2 plume injection process. Notably, the ground truth values fall within the ensemble forecasts, indicating that our uncertainty quantification effectively captures variability and potential noise in the observations. Thus, the developed conditional generative model proves to be a more efficient, accurate, and practical tool for GCS applications, facilitating timely risk analysis and informed decision-making.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Characterizing the impact of finite matrix block size on conservative particle transport through three-dimensional fracture networks

Mass transfer of solutes between fractures and the surrounding rock matrix exerts a noticeable signature on the tail of travel time distributions. When the width of the matrix is assumed to be infinite and advective transport through the fracture is sufficiently fast, the tails of the travel time distributions exhibit a classically expected slope of ψ(t) ∝ t -3/2 . However, studies have yet to characterize how solute transfer between fractures via diffusion through finite matrix blocks influences the tail’s slope in three-dimensional fractured media. Here, in this study, we assess the impact of finite matrix block size on breakthrough curve shape at different spatio-temporal scales by con ducting particle tracking simulations in three-dimensional discrete fracture networks. We consider a variety of hydrodynamic and geostructural proper ties to determine their relative impact on the resulting travel time distributions. We observe that the impact of matrix diffusion through a finite block on travel time distributions is similar to that of an infinite matrix block when the fracture spacing is sufficiently large, matrix diffusion is relatively weak, or transport is considered at an early control plane distance. We observe that the converse of these conditions, results in deviations from the classical ψ(t) ∝ t -3/2 scaling. These results provide a first step toward developing a metric to assess when finite block size effects are expected to significantly influence transport.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Osmotic control of the spacing of parallel shear cracks in shale growing subcritically in geologic past

The geological genesis of natural cracks in sedimentary rocks such as shale is a problem that needs to be understood to improve the technology of hydraulic fracturing as well as deep sequestration of harmful fluids. Why are the vertical natural cracks roughly parallel and equidistant, and why is the spacing roughly 10 cm rather than 1 cm or 100 cm? Fracture mechanics of critical cracks cannot answer this question. Neither can the material heterogeneity. The growth of critical parallel cracks is impossible because the relative crack face displacements would immediately localize into one crack, leading to an earthquake. The cracks must have formed, on the tectonic time scale, by a slow growth of subcritical shear cracks governed by the Charles-Evans law. The idea advanced here is that what controls the crack spacing is the balance between the reduction, due to shear dilatancy, of the concentration of ions such as Na + and Cl - in each fracture process zone (PFZ), which decelerates the cracks, and the restoration of ion concentration by diffusion of ions from the space between the cracks into the FPZ. This diffusion of water is driven mainly by the osmotic pressure gradient, which offsets the deceleration and depends strongly on the crack spacing. A simple analytical solution of the steady state is rendered possible by approximating the ion concentration profiles between adjacent cracks by parabolic arcs. Applying this theory to Woodford shale yields the approximate crack spacing of 10 cm, which is realistic. Furthermore, the stability of unlimited parallel mode II frictional crack growth is proven by examining the second variation of the free energy. Water concentration drop in the FPZ due to shear dilatancy and its restoration by water diffusion from the inter-crack space have similar effect, although probably much weaker.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2020

Role of interaction between hydraulic and natural fractures on production

One of the main purposes of hydraulic fracturing in unconventional resources such as shale is to improve the connectivity between existing natural fractures and the production well. Since the inherent permeability of shale is extremely low, this newly formed fracture connectivity provides faster paths for the hydrocarbon stored in preexisting natural fractures. In this study, we performed numerical simulations of the free gas production at large scale fractured reservoir with different pre-existing natural fracture network intensities and with variable hydraulic fracture sizes and staging. We explored production characteristics as a function of the properties of both, natural fractures (intensity) and hydraulic fractures (size and staging). Our hypothesis is that once maximum fracture connectivity is achieved, additional stimulation does not increase production significantly. In this numerical study we use an advanced modeling tool to study fractures connectivity, Discrete Fracture Network (DFN) approach, which can represent fracture networks similar to those observed on individual reservoir sites. In our model the horizontal production well and vertical hydraulic fractures were deterministically defined and surrounded by stochastically generated natural fracture networks. The performed numerical experiments show how fracture connectivity depends on hydraulic fracture settings in fractured reservoir with different preexisting fracture densities. We numerically showed that cumulative free gas production is not affected significantly by hydraulic fractures size (25 m–150 m) or spacing (15 m–45 m) for dense natural fracture networks. However, the hydraulic fracture size is important in reservoirs with sparse natural fractures, although spacing (number of stages) does not play a significant role.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Assessing mechanical response of CO 2 storage into a depleted carbonate reef using a site-scale geomechanical model calibrated with field tests and InSAR monitoring data

Geomechanical risks of injection have raised concerns regarding secure CO 2 storage. In this work, a combined monitoring and modeling approach is used to assess the stress changes and surface uplift associated with CO 2 injection into a depleted carbonate reef of the Michigan basin. A site-scale geomechanical model is built by assigning mechanical properties of formations using well-log and experimental data. Gravity load is applied to the model to estimate the vertical component of stress as well as different lateral boundary displacement scenarios to estimate horizontal stresses. We used a poroelastic pressure-dependent model (instead of a linear elastic mechanical earth model) to calibrate initial stresses using hydraulic fracture test data measured at depleted reservoir status. Multi-phase fluid flow-geomechanical simulations are performed to estimate the poroelastic response during (1) primary depletion (2) field-scale CO 2 injection phase (3) a hypothetical forecast scenario in which well bottom hole pressure (BHP) reach 45000 KPa. The predicted surface uplift is less than 1 mm at the end of the field-scale CO 2 injection phase which is in good agreement with Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR) uplift measurement. Although the InSAR data shows an insignificant uplift, hydromechanical modeling of injection shows that CO 2 injection still causes reservoir deformation emphasizing the role of carbonate overburden and reservoir formation mechanical properties and limited size of reef on diminishing the surface deformation. Modeling indicates poroelastic response of caprock matters to estimate uplift. The lower permeability of the top two layers provides additional barrier to large uplift. Also, history of subsidence due to production should be accounted to predict uplift due to a follow up injection correctly. This report shows the significance of combining a calibrated geomechanical model with field measured stresses and monitoring data to be used as a tool to ensure the safety of CO 2 storage.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2021

Analysis of time-dependent strain heterogeneity in shales using X-ray microscopy and digital volume correlation

In this paper, we report the results of a 4-dimensional (3 spatial dimensions plus time) in-situ creep experiment on a milli-core shale plug from Barnett formation in Texas. An outstanding challenge in shale mechanics is connecting observable characteristics to predictable mechanical and hydraulic behavior. We employ novel imaging and analysis techniques to statistically link sample mineralogy and structure to observed deformation. In particular, we focus on mechanisms of porosity reduction during transient response to step changes in stress, analogous to the aseismic deformation that occurs after an episode of fracturing. Our main goal in this study is to take the first steps to visualize and capture the small-scale deformation mechanisms involved in creep of shales, using imaging techniques. To do so, we conducted a uniaxial creep experiment inside an Xradia Versa 520 micro-CT system for 12 h at room temperature under a constant uniaxial stress of 25 MPa. We employed a Digital Volume Correlation (DVC) method to measure micro-scale deforspmation of the sample by comparing the resulting volumetric images with a high-resolution scan of the sample obtained prior to the creep experiment. The results indicate that the time-dependent deformation in the compliant clay plus kerogen matrix constituents facilitates rigid grain rotation and compaction of intergranular porosity at the boundary between rigid grains and matrix.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Hydraulic fracture mapping using wavelet-based fusion of wave transmission and emission measurements

Fracture characterization is essential to hydrocarbon and geothermal exploration and production as well as carbon geo-sequestration. Active and passive measurements have been extensively applied to map fractures across various scales. Active and passive methods have inherent advantages and limitations that complement each other. Here, in this study, to improve the mapping of embedded fractures and the surrounding geomechanically altered regions, we integrate active shear-wave transmission measurement with passive acoustic-emission measurement collected during a lab-scale hydraulic-fracturing experiment. The proposed data fusion leverages the advantages of the two modalities of measurements, while minimizing their individual limitations. Polarized shear-wave transmission (active) measurement was collected before and after the hydraulic fracturing, and the acoustic emission (passive) measurement was collected during hydraulic fracturing. Two sets of two-dimensional maps of fracture and fracture-induced damage in axial, median and frontal planes were obtained by separately processing active and passive measurements. These 2D maps are then fed to wavelet-based image fusion technique to integrate the two sources of information for the reliable mapping/imaging of the embedded fractures and the surrounding geomechanically altered regions.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Characterization of the mud displacement in an enlarged wellbore: An integrated rock-fluid model

Cement-mud displacement plays a crucial role in the sealability of cement sheaths. Irregular geometric features of a wellbore due to washout can have a negative impact on mud and cement mobilization. An unstable interface between two fluids always leads to mud channeling, interfluid mixing, and cement contamination, degrading the cement quality. Many factors, such as mechanical and rheological properties of fluids, annulus geometry, flow pattern, and flow rate, significantly influence the displacement efficiency. This study investigates the characterization of the mud displacement in an irregular horizontal well using a 3D computational fluid dynamics (CFD) model. Mud is displaced in an enlarged wellbore by geopolymer and neat class G cement. The wellbore geometry is developed based on the caliper log data from an unconventional shale well in the Tuscaloosa Marine Shale (TMS) lithology. The effects of pump rate, density difference, and mud contamination are evaluated by numerical simulations. The results present those residual muds mainly exist in the upper annulus of the enlarged section. Geopolymer has a better sealing performance and can resist more water-based mud (WBM) contaminations than neat class G cement. The scenario with a low mud-cement density difference and high cement injection rate results in a high cement volume fraction, mitigating the gas migration.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗