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NASA NTRS1995

Interaction of the terrestrial and atmospheric hydrological cycles in the context of the North American southwest summer monsoon

Work under this grant has used information on precipitation and water vapor fluxes in the area of the Mexican Monsoon to analyze the regional precipitation climatology, to understand the nature of water vapor transport during the monsoon using model and observational data, and to analyze the ability of the TRMM remote sensing algorithm to characterize precipitation. An algorithm for estimating daily surface rain volumes from hourly GOES infrared images was developed and compared to radar data. Estimates were usually within a factor of two, but different linear relations between satellite reflectances and rainfall rate were obtained for each day, storm type and storm development stage. This result suggests that using TRMM sensors to calibrate other satellite IR will need to be a complex process taking into account all three of the above factors. Another study, this one of the space-time variability of the Mexican Monsoon, indicate that TRMM will have a difficult time, over the course of its expected three year lifetime, identifying the diurnal cycle of precipitation over monsoon region. Even when considering monthly rainfalls, projected satellite estimates of August rainfall show a root mean square error of 38 percent. A related examination of spatial variability of mean monthly rainfall using a novel method for removing the effects of elevation from gridded gauge data, show wide variation from a satellite-based rainfall estimates for the same time and space resolution. One issue addressed by our research, relating to the basic character of the monsoon circulation, is the determination of the source region for moisture. The monthly maps produced from our study of monsoon variability show the presence of two rainfall maxima in the analysis normalized to sea level, one in south-central Arizona associated with the Mexican monsoon maximum and one in southeastern New Mexico associated with the Gulf of Mexico. From the point of view of vertically-integrated fluxes and flux divergence of water vapor from ECMWF data, most moisture at upper levels arrives from the Gulf of Mexico, while low level moisture comes from the northern Gulf of California. Composites of ECMWF analyses for wet and dry periods (classified by rain gauge data) show that both regimes show low level moisture arriving from northern and central Gulf of California. Above 700 MB, moisture comes from both source regions and the Sierra Madre Occidental. During wet periods a longer fetch through the moist air mass above western Mexico results in a greater moisture flux into the Sonoran Desert region, while there is less moisture from the Gulf of Mexico both above and below 700 mb. Work on the grant subcontract at the University of Colorado concentrated on the development of a technique useful to TRMM combining visible, infrared and passive microwave data for measuring precipitation. Two established techniques using either visible or infrared data applied over the US Southwest correlated with gauges at the 0.58 to 0.70 level. The application of some established passive microwave techniques were less successful for a variety of reason, including problems in both the gauge and satellite data quality, sampling problems and weaknesses inherent in the algorithms themselves. A more promising solution for accurate rainfall estimation was explored using visible and infrared data to perform a cloud classification, which when combined with information about the background (e.g. Iand/ocean), was used to select the most appropriate microwave algorithm from a suite of possibilities.

Dickinson, Robert E.↗

NASA NTRS2005

Performance Analysis on Fault Tolerant Control System

In a fault tolerant control (FTC) system, a parameter varying FTC law is reconfigured based on fault parameters estimated by fault detection and isolation (FDI) modules. FDI modules require some time to detect fault occurrences in aero-vehicle dynamics. In this paper, an FTC analysis framework is provided to calculate the upper bound of an induced-L(sub 2) norm of an FTC system with existence of false identification and detection time delay. The upper bound is written as a function of a fault detection time and exponential decay rates and has been used to determine which FTC law produces less performance degradation (tracking error) due to false identification. The analysis framework is applied for an FTC system of a HiMAT (Highly Maneuverable Aircraft Technology) vehicle. Index Terms fault tolerant control system, linear parameter varying system, HiMAT vehicle.

Shin, Jong-Yeob↗

NASA NTRS2016

Investigation of Non-Equilibrium Radiation for Earth Entry

This paper presents measurements and simulations of non-equilibrium shock layer radiation relevant to high-speed Earth entry data obtained in the NASA Ames Research Center's Electric Arc Shock Tube (EAST) facility. The experiments were aimed at measuring the spatially and spectrally resolved radiance at relevant entry conditions for both an approximate Earth atmosphere (79 N2 : 21 O2) as well as a more accurate composition featuring the trace species Ar and CO2 (78.08 N2 : 20.95 O2 : 0.04 CO2 : 0.93 Ar). The experiments were configured to target a wide range of conditions, of which shots from 8 to 11.5 km/s at 0.2 Torr (26.7 Pa) are examined in this paper. The non-equilibrium component was chosen to be the focus of this study as it can account for a significant percentage of the emitted radiation for Earth entry, and more importantly, non-equilibrium has traditionally been assigned a large uncertainty for vehicle design. The main goals of this study are to present the shock tube data in the form of a non-equilibrium metric, evaluate the level of agreement between the experiment and simulations, identify key discrepancies and to promote discussion about various aspects of modeling non-equilibrium radiating flows. Radiance profiles integrated over discreet wavelength regions, ranging from the VUV through to the NIR, were compared in order to maximize both the spectral coverage and the number of experiments that could be used in the analysis. A previously defined non-equilibrium metric has been used to allow comparisons with several shots and reveal trends in the data. Overall, LAURAHARA is shown to under-predict EAST by as much as 50 and over-predict by as much as 20 depending on the shock speed. DPLRNEQAIR is shown to under-predict EAST by as much as 40 and over-predict by as much as 12 depending on the shock speed. In terms of an upper bound estimate for the absolute error in wall-directed heat flux, at the lower speeds investigated in this paper, 8 to 9 km/s, even though there are some large relative differences, the absolute error in radiance will be less then 1 Wcm2. At the highest shock speed of 11 km/s, the error will be less than 20 W/ sq cm.

Radiation↗

NASA NTRS2019

Observation of absorbing aerosols above clouds over the south-east Atlantic Ocean from the geostationary satellite SEVIRI – Part 1: Method description and sensitivity

High-temporal-resolution observations from satellites have a great potential for studying the impact of biomass burning aerosols and clouds over the south-east Atlantic Ocean (SEAO). This paper presents a method developed to simultaneously retrieve aerosol and cloud properties in aerosol above-cloud conditions from the geostationary instrument Meteosat Second Generation/Spinning Enhanced Visible and Infrared Imager (MSG/SEVIRI). The above-cloud aerosol optical thickness (AOT), the cloud optical thickness (COT) and the cloud droplet effective radius (CER) are derived from the spectral contrast and the magnitude of the signal measured in three channels in the visible to shortwave infrared region. The impact of the absorption from atmospheric gases on the satellite signal is corrected by applying transmittances calculated using the water vapour profiles from a Met Office forecast model. The sensitivity analysis shows that a 10 % error on the humidity profile leads to an 18.5 % bias on the above-cloud AOT, which highlights the importance of an accurate atmospheric correction scheme. In situ measurements from the CLARIFY-2017 airborne field campaign are used to constrain the aerosol size distribution and refractive index that is assumed for the aforementioned retrieval algorithm. The sensitivities in the retrieved AOT, COT and CER to the aerosol model assumptions are assessed. Between 09:00 and 15:00 UTC, an uncertainty of 40 % is estimated on the above-cloud AOT, which is dominated by the sensitivity of the retrieval to the single-scattering albedo. The absorption AOT is less sensitive to the aerosol assumptions with an uncertainty generally lower than 17 % between 09:00 and 15:00 UTC. Outside of that time range, as the scattering angle decreases, the sensitivity of the AOT and the absorption AOT to the aerosol model increases. The retrieved cloud properties are only weakly sensitive to the aerosol model assumptions throughout the day, with biases lower than 6 % on the COT and 3 % on the CER. The stability of the retrieval over time is analysed. For observations outside of the backscattering glory region, the time series of the aerosol and cloud properties are physically consistent, which confirms the ability of the retrieval to monitor the temporal evolution of aerosol above-cloud events over the SEAO.

cloud properties↗

DOE OSTI2025

Physics-based hybrid machine learning for critical heat flux prediction with uncertainty quantification

Critical heat flux (CHF) is a key quantity in nuclear system modeling due to its impact on heat transfer, safety margins, and reactor performance. This study develops and validates an uncertainty-aware hybrid modeling approach that combines machine learning with physics-based models to predict CHF in cases of dryout. The Biasi and Bowring empirical correlations were paired with three ML uncertainty quantification (UQ) techniques: deep neural network (DNN) ensembles, Bayesian neural networks (BNNs), and deep Gaussian processes (DGPs). A pure ML model without a base model was evaluated for comparison. Model performance was assessed under plentiful (7,350 points) and limited (9 points) training data scenarios using parity, uncertainty distributions, and calibration curves. Results show that the Biasi hybrid DNN ensemble achieved the best overall performance, with a mean absolute relative error of 1.846%, and well-calibrated uncertainty estimates. The BNN-based hybrids showed slightly higher error (2.14%) but superior uncertainty calibration. DGP models underperformed, with over 6% error and poor uncertainty calibration. All hybrid models outperformed pure machine learning configurations, demonstrating resistance against data scarcity. These findings indicate that hybrid modeling significantly improves predictive accuracy, interpretability, and resilience to data scarcity. The integration of uncertainty awareness provides actionable confidence in CHF predictions, which is vital for safety-critical decisions in nuclear applications. This hybrid approach offers a viable pathway for deploying ML models in reactor analysis tools while preserving domain knowledge and physical consistency.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

NASA NTRS1981

On the procedure for deriving ozone variations from satellite observations

It is noted that for the years 1970-1972 global ozone may be calculated by using extrapolated values for polar night regions and then deriving direct daily averages. After 1972, regions larger than the polar night often lack data, increasing the error of extrapolation. It is shown that problems of this type can be overcome by using zonal averages, calculating the annual wave through harmonic analysis, and subtracting the annual wave so derived. Linear fits can then be employed to obtain long-term zonal changes and yearly zonal averages. Global results can be derived in the form of an area-weighted average of the zonal results. It is pointed out that no values need be assumed for ozone when data are lacking. The uncertainty from this procedure is estimated at + or - 0.4% of the yearly average. However, other uncertainties in the backscatter ultraviolet experiment may be larger.

Schlesinger, B. M.↗

NASA NTRS1990

The mass function of Seyfert 1 nuclei

The first mass function of Seyfert 1 nuclei is derived from optical spectra of the complete CfA sample of Seyfert galaxies by estimating the mass for each object from a dynamical relation. An independent estimate is also derived using a complete infrared-selected sample. The two mass functions are indistinguishable. The mean mass of Seyfert 1 nuclei is about 2 x 10 to the 7th solar masses, and the integrated mass density is about 6 x 10 to the 11th solar masses/cu Gpc. This is approximately two orders of magnitude less than the value inferred from the energetics associated with quasar counts. A careful analysis of the various parameters and assumptions involved suggests that this large difference is not due to systematic errors in the determinations. Therefore, the bulk of mass related to the accretion processes connected with past quasar activity does not reside in Seyfert 1 nuclei. Instead, the remnants of past activity must be present in a much larger number of galaxies, and a one-to-one relation between distant and local active galactic nuclei seems then to be excluded.

Padovani, P.↗

NASA NTRS2004

Integrated Modeling Activities for the James Webb Space Telescope (JWST): Structural-Thermal-Optical Analysis

This is a continuation of a series of papers on modeling activities for JWST. The structural-thermal- optical, often referred to as "STOP", analysis process is used to predict the effect of thermal distortion on optical performance. The benchmark STOP analysis for JWST assesses the effect of an observatory slew on wavefront error. The paper begins an overview of multi-disciplinary engineering analysis, or integrated modeling, which is a critical element of the JWST mission. The STOP analysis process is then described. This process consists of the following steps: thermal analysis, structural analysis, and optical analysis. Temperatures predicted using geometric and thermal math models are mapped to the structural finite element model in order to predict thermally-induced deformations. Motions and deformations at optical surfaces are input to optical models and optical performance is predicted using either an optical ray trace or WFE estimation techniques based on prior ray traces or first order optics. Following the discussion of the analysis process, results based on models representing the design at the time of the System Requirements Review. In addition to baseline performance predictions, sensitivity studies are performed to assess modeling uncertainties. Of particular interest is the sensitivity of optical performance to uncertainties in temperature predictions and variations in metal properties. The paper concludes with a discussion of modeling uncertainty as it pertains to STOP analysis.

Johnston, John D.↗

NASA NTRS2020

Verification of Anisotropic Mesh Adaptation for Turbulent Simulations over ONERA M6 Wing

Unstructured anisotropic mesh adaptation is known to be an efficient way to control discretization errors in Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) simulations. Method verification is required to provide the confidence for routine use in production analysis. The current work aims at verification of anisotropic mesh adaptation for RANS simulations over the ONERA M6 wing. The present verification study is performed using four different flow solvers, three different implementations of the metric field, and three mesh mechanics packages. Two of the flow solvers use stabilized finite-element discretizations (FUN3D-SFE and GGNS), one uses finite-volume discretization (FUN3D-FV), and the last one uses mixed finite-volume and finite element discretizations (Wolf). The mesh adaptation is based on an error estimator that aims to control the quadratic error term in the linear interpolation of Mach number. Two sets of adaptations were performed; the first one controls the interpolation error in L2 norm and the second one controls the interpolation error in L4 norm. Convergence studies were performed on the forces and the pitching moment using all four solvers, and the results are compared with previously verified convergence studies on fixed (nonadapted) meshes. Both forces and pitching moment on adapted meshes are found to be converging to the fine mesh values faster than those on fixed meshes. In addition to forces and moments, convergence of surface pressure and skin friction coefficients at various measurement locations on the wing are also presented. Adapted-mesh surface pressure distributions agree with the fine fixed mesh pressure distributions. Adapted-mesh skin friction distributions contain high frequency noise with mean values approaching the fixed mesh pressure skin friction distributions.

Aravind Balan↗

DOE OSTI2020

A Mixed Discontinuous Galerkin Method for Linear Elasticity with Strongly Imposed Symmetry

In this paper, we study a mixed discontinuous Galerkin (MDG) method to solve linear elasticity problem with arbitrary order discontinuous finite element spaces in d -dimension ( $d=2,3$ ). This method uses polynomials of degree $k+1$ for the stress and of degree k for the displacement ( $k\ge 0$ ). The mixed DG scheme is proved to be well-posed under proper norms. Specifically, we prove that, for any $k \ge 0$ , the $H(\mathrm{div})$ -like error estimate for the stress and $L^2$ error estimate for the displacement are optimal. We further establish the optimal $L^2$ error estimate for the stress provided that the ${\mathcal {P}}_{k+2}-{\mathcal {P}}_{k+1}^{-1}$ Stokes pair is stable and $k \ge d$ . Finally, we also provide numerical results of MDG showing that the orders of convergence are actually sharp.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2020

μ⋆ masses: weak-lensing calibration of the Dark Energy Survey Year 1 redMaPPer clusters using stellar masses

ABSTRACT We present the weak-lensing mass calibration of the stellar-mass-based μ⋆ mass proxy for redMaPPer galaxy clusters in the Dark Energy Survey Year 1. For the first time, we are able to perform a calibration of μ⋆ at high redshifts, z > 0.33. In a blinded analysis, we use ∼6000 clusters split into 12 subsets spanning the ranges 0.1 ≤ z < 0.65 and μ⋆ up to ${\sim} 5.5 \times 10^{13} \, \mathrm{M}_{\odot }$, and infer the average masses of these subsets through modelling of their stacked weak-lensing signal. In our model, we account for the following sources of systematic uncertainty: shear measurement and photometric redshift errors, miscentring, cluster-member contamination of the source sample, deviations from the Navarro–Frenk–White halo profile, halo triaxiality, and projection effects. We use the inferred masses to estimate the joint mass–μ⋆–z scaling relation given by $\langle M_{200c} | \mu _{\star },z \rangle = M_0 (\mu _{\star }/5.16\times 10^{12} \, \mathrm{M_{\odot }})^{F_{\mu _{\star }}} ((1+z)/1.35)^{G_z}$. We find $M_0= (1.14 \pm 0.07) \times 10^{14} \, \mathrm{M_{\odot }}$ with $F_{\mu _{\star }}= 0.76 \pm 0.06$ and Gz = −1.14 ± 0.37. We discuss the use of μ⋆ as a complementary mass proxy to the well-studied richness λ for: (i) exploring the regimes of low z, λ < 20 and high λ, z ∼ 1; and (ii) testing systematics such as projection effects for applications in cluster cosmology.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2020

Quantum Computing for Neutrino-Nucleus Scattering

Neutrino-nucleus cross section uncertainties are expected to be a dominant systematic in future accelerator neutrino experiments. The cross sections are determined by the linear response of the nucleus to the weak interactions of the neutrino, and are dominated by energy and distance scales of the order of the separation between nucleons in the nucleus. These response functions are potentially an important early physics application of quantum computers. Here we present an analysis of the resources required and their expected scaling for scattering cross section calculations. The current estimates of Trotter steps needed to achieve an energy resolution of 10 MeV and the number of CNOT gates for analyzing Ar40 highlights the need for significant improvements in algorithms. We also examine simple small-scale neutrino-nucleus models on modern quantum hardware. In this paper, we use variational methods to obtain the ground state of a three nucleon system (the triton) and then implement the relevant time evolution. To tame the errors in present-day NISQ devices, we explore the use of different error-mitigation techniques to increase the fidelity of the calculations.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

NASA NTRS1985

Evaluation of a fault tolerant system for an integrated avionics sensor configuration with TSRV flight data

The performance analysis results of a fault inferring nonlinear detection system (FINDS) using sensor flight data for the NASA ATOPS B-737 aircraft in a Microwave Landing System (MLS) environment is presented. First, a statistical analysis of the flight recorded sensor data was made in order to determine the characteristics of sensor inaccuracies. Next, modifications were made to the detection and decision functions in the FINDS algorithm in order to improve false alarm and failure detection performance under real modelling errors present in the flight data. Finally, the failure detection and false alarm performance of the FINDS algorithm were analyzed by injecting bias failures into fourteen sensor outputs over six repetitive runs of the five minute flight data. In general, the detection speed, failure level estimation, and false alarm performance showed a marked improvement over the previously reported simulation runs. In agreement with earlier results, detection speed was faster for filter measurement sensors soon as MLS than for filter input sensors such as flight control accelerometers.

Caglayan, A. K.↗

NASA NTRS1988

Astrometric results of 1978-1985 Deep Space Network radio interferometry - The JPL 1987-1 extragalactic source catalog

An astrometric radio reference frame has been determined from intercontinental dual-frequency radio interferometric measurements. These measurements were carried out on a regular basis during 1978-1985 between NASA's Deep Space Network stations in California, Spain, and Australia. Analysis of 6800 pairs of delay and delay-rate observations made during 51 sessions produced estimates of 1300 parameters. The most significant of these are geophysical quantities and positions of extragalactic sources. The source catalog resulting from this analysis includes 106 sources fairly uniformly distributed over the celestial sphere, north of -45 deg declination. Almost all of the resulting source positions have formal uncertainties between 0.5 and 3 milliarcseconds (mas), with rms values of 2 mas in both angular coordinates. Internal consistency checks, as well as comparisons with independently determined source catalogs of comparable quality, indicate that relative source coordinates determined by VLBI contain systematic errors at the level of 1 to 2 mas.

Sovers, O. J.↗

NASA NTRS1992

Estimation of the absolute position of mobile systems by an optoelectronic processor

A method that determine the absolute position of a mobile system with a hybrid optoelectronic processor has been developed. Position estimates are based on an analysis of circular landmarks that are detected by a TV camera attached to the mobile system. The difference between the known shape of the landmark and its image provides the information needed to determine the absolute position of the mobile system. For robust operation, the parameters of the landmark image are extracted at high speeds using an optical processor that performs an optical Hough transform. The coordinates of the mobile system are computed from these parameters in a digital co-processor using fast algorithms. Different sources of position estimation errors have also been analyzed, and consequent algorithms to improve the navigation performance of the mobile system have been developed and evaluated by both computer simulation and experiments.

Feng, Liqiang↗

NASA NTRS2011

Investigating On-Orbit Attitude Determination Anomalies for the Solar Dynamics Observatory Mission

The Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) was launched on February 11, 2010 from Kennedy Space Center on an Atlas V launch vehicle into a geosynchronous transfer orbit. SDO carries a suite of three scientific instruments, whose observations are intended to promote a more complete understanding of the Sun and its effects on the Earth's environment. After a successful launch, separation, and initial Sun acquisition, the launch and flight operations teams dove into a commissioning campaign that included, among other things, checkout and calibration of the fine attitude sensors and checkout of the Kalman filter (KF) and the spacecraft s inertial pointing and science control modes. In addition, initial calibration of the science instruments was also accomplished. During that process of KF and controller checkout, several interesting observations were noticed and investigated. The SDO fine attitude sensors consist of one Adcole Digital Sun Sensor (DSS), two Galileo Avionica (GA) quaternion-output Star Trackers (STs), and three Kearfott Two-Axis Rate Assemblies (hereafter called inertial reference units, or IRUs). Initial checkout of the fine attitude sensors indicated that all sensors appeared to be functioning properly. Initial calibration maneuvers were planned and executed to update scale factors, drift rate biases, and alignments of the IRUs. After updating the IRU parameters, the KF was initialized and quickly reached convergence. Over the next few hours, it became apparent that there was an oscillation in the sensor residuals and the KF estimation of the IRU bias. A concentrated investigation ensued to determine the cause of the oscillations, their effect on mission requirements, and how to mitigate them. The ensuing analysis determined that the oscillations seen were, in fact, due to an oscillation in the IRU biases. The low frequencies of the oscillations passed through the KF, were well within the controller bandwidth, and therefore the spacecraft was actually following the oscillating biases, resulting in movement of the spacecraft on the order of plus or minus 20 arcsec. Though this level of error met the ACS attitude knowledge requirement of [35, 70, 70] arcsec, 3 sigma, the desire of the ACS and instrument teams was to remove as much of the oscillation as possible. The Kearfott IRUs have an internal temperature controller, designed to maintain the IRU temperature at a constant temperature of approximately 70 C, thus minimizing the change in the bias drift and scale factors of the mechanical gyros. During ground testing of the observatory, it was discovered that the 83-Hz control cycle of the IRU heaters put a tremendous amount of stress on the spacecraft battery. Analysis by the power systems team indicated that the constant charge/discharge on the battery due to the IRU thermal control cycle could potentially limit the life of the battery. After much analysis, the decision was made not to run the internal IRU heaters. Analysis of on orbit data revealed that the oscillations in the IRU bias had a connection to the temperature of the IRU; changes in IRU temperature resulted in changes in the amplitude and period of the IRU biases. Several mitigating solutions were investigated, the result of which was to tune the KF with larger IRU noise assumptions which allows the KF to follow and correct for the time-varying IRU biases.

Vess, Melissa F.↗

DOE OSTI2023

Coexistent Quantum Channel Characterization Using Spectrally Resolved Bayesian Quantum Process Tomography

The coexistence of quantum and classical signals over the same optical fiber with minimal degradation of the transmitted quantum information is critical for operating large-scale quantum networks over the existing communications infrastructure. In this work, we systematically characterize the quantum channel that results from simultaneously distributing approximate single-photon polarization-encoded qubits and classical light of varying intensities through fiber-optic channels of up to 15 km. Using spectrally resolved quantum process tomography with a Bayesian reconstruction method that we develop, we estimate the full quantum channel from experimental photon counting data, both with and without classical background. Furthermore, although we find the exact channel description to be a weak function of the pump polarization, we nevertheless show that the coexistent fiber-based quantum channel has high process fidelity with an ideal depolarizing channel when the noise is dominated by Raman scattering. These results provide a basis for the future development of quantum repeater designs and quantum error-correcting codes for real-world channels and inform models used in the analysis and simulation of quantum networks.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

NASA NTRS1982

Kalman filtering for spacecraft attitude estimation

Several schemes in current use for sequential estimation of spacecraft attitude using Kalman filters are examined. These differ according to their treatment of the attitude error, namely: using the complete four-component quaternion; using a truncated quaternion in which one of the components has been eliminated; or using a quaternion referred to approximate body-fixed axes. These schemes are examined for the case of a spacecraft carrying line-of-sight attitude sensors and three-axis gyros whose measurements are corrupted by noise on both the drift rate and the drift-rate ramp. The analysis of the covariance is carried out in detail. The historical development of Kalman filtering of attitude is reviewed.

Lefferts, E. J.↗