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At least 1,387 records · Page 77

The Viability of Trajectory Analysis for Diagnosing Dynamical and Chemical Influences on Ozone Concentrations in the UTLS

The viability of trajectory analysis for diagnosing the interplay between chemistry and dynamics is investigated by comparing ozone mixing ratios modelled using air-parcel pathways to values observed along flight tracks during ATTREX (Airborne Tropical TRopopause EXperiment). Trajectories are initiated at the locations of ozone observations and tracked backward in time to their sources at termini of backward trajectories. The modelled values of ozone utilize 3-dimensional analysis fields from WACCM (Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model) (a chemical-climate model with dynamical fields nudged towards MERRA (Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis and Research Applications) reanalysis) and ERA-interim (product of ECMWF - the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) to determine source mixing ratios with chemical production and loss terms derived from the ozone chemistry used in WACCM. A statistical base of modelled ozone is constructed with 6 trajectory platforms (adiabatic, diabatic, and kinematic forced by ERA-interim and MERRA), two chemical models (WACCM chemistry and no chemistry), and 4 trajectory lengths (5, 10, 20, and 30 days). Linear regression is employed to separate systematic errors from random errors and to characterize the impact of source mixing ratios, path length, vertical motion, and chemistry on modelled ozone errors. Errors in the analysis ozone fields are large, if not dominant, contributors to model error. Random errors are particularly large for point-by-point comparisons, however averaging over 800 km (75 minutes) flight segments substantially reduces random error and exposes systematic errors. Of the two analysis ozone data sets, WACCM, which incorporates detailed chemistry, provides the smaller systematic errors while ERA-interim, which has crude chemistry but assimilates observational data, has the smaller random errors. Of the different trajectory platforms, adiabatic calculations produce the smaller random errors (irrespective of the use of chemistry) but both vertical motion and chemistry are required to optimally reduce systematic errors. These results suggest that meaningful analysis of dynamical and chemical interactions that control ozone mixing ratios are viable on spatial scales larger than a few reanalysis grid spaces, that errors in the analyzed ozone data sets are large but not prohibitively so, and that vertical velocities and heating rates from reanalysis data, while problematic, contain useful information [on the ozone concentrations in the UTLS (Upper Troposphere/Lower Stratosphere)].

ozone↗

Experimental analysis of computer system dependability

This paper reviews an area which has evolved over the past 15 years: experimental analysis of computer system dependability. Methodologies and advances are discussed for three basic approaches used in the area: simulated fault injection, physical fault injection, and measurement-based analysis. The three approaches are suited, respectively, to dependability evaluation in the three phases of a system's life: design phase, prototype phase, and operational phase. Before the discussion of these phases, several statistical techniques used in the area are introduced. For each phase, a classification of research methods or study topics is outlined, followed by discussion of these methods or topics as well as representative studies. The statistical techniques introduced include the estimation of parameters and confidence intervals, probability distribution characterization, and several multivariate analysis methods. Importance sampling, a statistical technique used to accelerate Monte Carlo simulation, is also introduced. The discussion of simulated fault injection covers electrical-level, logic-level, and function-level fault injection methods as well as representative simulation environments such as FOCUS and DEPEND. The discussion of physical fault injection covers hardware, software, and radiation fault injection methods as well as several software and hybrid tools including FIAT, FERARI, HYBRID, and FINE. The discussion of measurement-based analysis covers measurement and data processing techniques, basic error characterization, dependency analysis, Markov reward modeling, software-dependability, and fault diagnosis. The discussion involves several important issues studies in the area, including fault models, fast simulation techniques, workload/failure dependency, correlated failures, and software fault tolerance.

Iyer, Ravishankar, K.↗

Plasma gradient effets on doubel-probe measurements in the magnetosphere

The effects on double-probe electric field measurements induced by electron density and temperature gradients are investigated. We show that on some occasions such gradients may lead to marked spurious electric fields if the probes are assumed to lie at the same probe potential with repect to the plasma. The use of a proper bias current will decrease the magnitude of such an error. When the probes are near the plasma potential, the magnitude of these error signals, delta Epsilon, can vary as delta Epsilon approx. T(sub e)(Delta n(sub e)/n(sub e)) + 0.5 Delta T(sub e), where T(sub e) is the electron temperature, Delta n(sub e)/ n(sub e) the relative electron density variation between the two sensors, and Delta T(sub e) the electron temperature difference between the two sensors. This not only implies that the error signals will increase linearly with the density variations but also that such signatures grow with Delta T(sub e) i.e., such effects are 10 times larger in a 10-eV plasma than in a 1-eV plasma. This type of error is independent of the probe separation distance provided the gradient scale length is much larger than the distance. The largest errors occur when the probes are near to the plasma potential. During the crossing of a small structure (e.g, a double layer) the error signal appears as a bipolar signature. Our analysis shows that errors in double-probe measurements caused by plasma gradients are not significant at large scale (much greater than 1 km) plasma boundaries, and may only be important in cases where small-scale (less than 1 km), internal gradient structures exist. Bias currents tailored for each plasma parameter regime (i.e., variable bias current) would improve the double-probe response to gradient effects considerably.

Laakso, Harri↗

Adjoint Estimation of Observation Impact Explored with an Observing System Simulation Experiment

In an Observing System Simulation Experiment, the full, true state of the simulated atmosphere is known. This knowledge allows the direct calculation of analysis and forecast errors, and also may be used in conjunction with an adjoint tool to calculate metrics that are unachievable in the real world. For example, the errors that result from the use of the analysis state as verification when running adjoint calculations of observation impact on a forecast can be quantified. The adjoint itself can also be used to operate on the analysis state rather than on the forecast state. Results from these and other adjoint experiments using the NASA/GMAO OSSE framework will be presented.

Prive, Nikki↗

Quantification of regional net CO 2 flux errors in the Orbiting Carbon Observatory-2 (OCO-2) v10 model intercomparison project (MIP) ensemble using airborne measurements

Inverse model intercomparison projects (MIPs) provide a chance to assess the uncertainties in inversion estimates arising from various sources. However, accurately quantifying ensemble CO 2 flux errors remains challenging and often relies on the ensemble spread. This study proposes a method for quantifying the errors in regional net surface–atmosphere CO 2 flux estimates from models taken from the Orbiting Carbon Observatory-2 (OCO-2) v10 MIP by using independent airborne CO 2 measurements for the period 2015–2017. We first calculate the root mean square error (RMSE) between the ensemble mean of posterior CO 2 concentrations and airborne observations and then isolate the CO 2 concentration errors caused solely by the ensemble mean of posterior net fluxes by subtracting the observation, representation, and transport errors from seven regions. Our analysis reveals that the flux errors projected onto CO 2 space account for 55 %–85 % of the regional average RMSE over the 3 years, ranging from 0.88 to 1.91 ppm. In five regions, the error estimates based on observations exceed those computed from the ensemble spread of posterior fluxes by a factor of 1.33–1.93, implying an underestimation of the actual flux errors, while their magnitudes are comparable in two regions. The adjoint sensitivity analysis identifies that the underestimation of flux errors is prominent where the magnitudes of fossil fuel emissions exceed those of terrestrial-biosphere fluxes by a factor of 3–31 over the 3 years. This suggests the presence of systematic biases in the inversion estimates associated with errors in the prescribed fossil fuel emissions common to all models. Our study emphasizes the value of airborne measurements for quantifying regional errors in ensemble net CO 2 flux estimates.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Impact of non-Maxwellian electron velocity distribution functions on inferred plasma parameters in collective Thomson scattering

Optical collective Thomson scattering provides precise density and temperature measurements in numerous plasma-physics experiments. The accuracy of such measurements depends on the core assumption that the underlying electron distribution functions in under-dense laser-produced plasmas are Maxwellian. A statistically based, quantitative analysis of the errors in the measured electron density and temperature is presented when synthetic data calculated using a non-Maxwellian electron distribution function is fit assuming a Maxwellian electron distribution. Such analysis can lead to errors of up to 50% in temperature and 30% in density, in the specific case of super-Gaussian distributions characteristic of inverse bremsstrahlung heating. Furthermore including the proper family of non-Maxwellian electron distribution functions, as a fitting parameter, in Thomson-scattering analysis removes the model-dependent errors in the inferred parameters at a minimal cost to the statistical uncertainty.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

QGLab v0.0.1

A software program for experimenting with holographic teleportation protocol on quantum computers. The code implements the protocol that was proposed in https://arxiv.org/abs/1911.06314. The code is an end-to-end software solution that facilitates conducting the holographic teleportation experiments on state-of-the-art and emergent generations of QPUs supported by the Qiskit and tket SDKs. The code bundles all stages of an experiment as a single configurable workflow allowing faster development and experimentation cycles. Features: 1. Easy switching between Qiskit and tket quantum compilers. 2. Semi-automatic facilities for finding optimal compilation solutions beyond what Qiskit and tket provide by default. 3. Experiment resolution scaling (based on automatic jobs' batching). 4. Automatic experiment scaling over qubits. 5. Automatic readout error mitigation. 6. Automatic reproducibility analysis. 7. Standalone error-mitigation tools (randomized compiling, mitigation with estimation circuits, zero-noise extrapolation)

Shapoval, Illya↗

System Calibration Including Time Delay Estimation for GNSS/INS-Assisted Pushbroom Scanners Onboard UAV Platforms

Unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs ) equipped with imaging sensors and integrated global navigation satellite system/inertial navigation system (GNSS/INS ) units are used for numerous applications. Deriving reliable 3D coordinates from such UAVs is contingent on accurate geometric calibration, which encompasses the estimation of mounting parameters and synchronization errors. Through a rigorous impact analysis of such systematic errors, this article proposes a direct approach for spatial and temporal calibration (estimating system parameters through a bundle adjustment procedure) of a GNSS/INS -assisted pushbroom scanner onboard a UAV platform. The calibration results show that the horizontal and vertical accuracies are within the ground sampling distance of the sensor. Unlike for frame camera systems, this article also shows that the indirect approach is not a feasible solution for pushbroom scanners due to their limited ability for decoupling system parameters. This finding provides further support that the direct approach is recommended for spatial and temporal calibration of UAV pushbroom scanner systems.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

Thermal analysis considerations for large space structures

A number of issues and needs relative to thermal analysis of large space structures and space stations are discussed. Some indications of trends in the Langley thermal-structural analysis research program consistent with the issues and needs are also presented. The main heat transfer mechanism in space is radiation; consequently, there is a need for a strong thrust on improved radiation analysis capability. Also the important interactions among temperatures, deformations, and controls need to be accounted for. Finite element analysis capability seems to be lagging behind lumped-parameter capability or heat pipe analysis. The Langley plan will include improving radiation analysis capability, evaluating the errors involved in certain approximate analysis and modeling techniques for large space trusses, and continuing the development of integrated thermal-structural finite elements with an emphasis on radiation heat transfer. Work will be initiated to develop finite element analysis techniques for heat pipes. Finally, optimization research activities will be oriented toward methods to design flexible orbiting structures to account for thermal and thermal deformation requirements.

Adelman, H. M.↗

Failure analysis and modeling of a multicomputer system

This thesis describes the results of an extensive measurement-based analysis of real error data collected from a 7-machine DEC VaxCluster multicomputer system. In addition to evaluating basic system error and failure characteristics, we develop reward models to analyze the impact of failures and errors on the system. The results show that, although 98 percent of errors in the shared resources recover, they result in 48 percent of all system failures. The analysis of rewards shows that the expected reward rate for the VaxCluster decreases to 0.5 in 100 days for a 3 out of 7 model, which is well over a 100 times that for a 7-out-of-7 model. A comparison of the reward rates for a range of k-out-of-n models indicates that the maximum increase in reward rate (0.25) occurs in going from the 6-out-of-7 model to the 5-out-of-7 model. The analysis also shows that software errors have the lowest reward (0.2 vs. 0.91 for network errors). The large loss in reward rate for software errors is due to the fact that a large proportion (94 percent) of software errors lead to failure. In comparison, the high reward rate for network errors is due to fast recovery from a majority of these errors (median recovery duration is 0 seconds).

Subramani, Sujatha Srinivasan↗

Unsupervised anomaly detection in MeV ultrafast electron diffraction

MeV ultrafast electron diffraction (MUED) is a pump-probe technique used to study the dynamic structural evolution of materials. An ultrashort laser pulse triggers structural changes, which are then probed by an ultrashort relativistic electron beam. To overcome low signal-to-noise ratios, diffraction patterns are averaged over thousands of shots. However, shot-to-shot instabilities in the electron beam can distort individual patterns, introducing uncertainty. Improving MUED accuracy requires detecting and removing these anomalous patterns from large datasets. In this work, we developed a fully unsupervised methodology for the detection of anomalous diffraction patterns. Using a convolutional autoencoder, we calculate the reconstruction mean squared error of the diffraction patterns. Based on the statistical analysis of this error, we provide the user an estimation of the probability that the pattern is normal, which also allows a posterior visual inspection of the images that are difficult to classify. This method has been trained with only 100 diffraction patterns and tested on 1521 patterns, resulting in a false positive rate between 0.2% and 0.4%, with a training time of 10 s per image and a test time of about 1 s per image. Here, the proposed methodology can also be applied to other diffraction techniques in which large datasets are collected that include faulty images due to instrumental instabilities.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗

Addressing the Hard Factors for Command File Errors by Probabilistic Reasoning

Command File Errors (CFE) are managed using standard risk management approaches at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory. Over the last few years, more emphasis has been made on the collection, organization, and analysis of these errors for the purpose of reducing the CFE rates. More recently, probabilistic modeling techniques have been used for more in depth analysis of the perceived error rates of the DAWN mission and for managing the soft factors in the upcoming phases of the mission. We broadly classify the factors that can lead to CFE's as soft factors, which relate to the cognition of the operators and hard factors which relate to the Mission System which is composed of the hardware, software and procedures used for the generation, verification & validation and execution of commands. The focus of this paper is to use probabilistic models that represent multiple missions at JPL to determine the root cause and sensitivities of the various components of the mission system and develop recommendations and techniques for addressing them. The customization of these multi-mission models to a sample interplanetary spacecraft is done for this purpose.

Meshkat, Leila↗

An investigation of error characteristics and coding performance

The first year's effort on NASA Grant NAG5-2006 was an investigation to characterize typical errors resulting from the EOS dorn link. The analysis methods developed for this effort were used on test data from a March 1992 White Sands Terminal Test. The effectiveness of a concatenated coding scheme of a Reed Solomon outer code and a convolutional inner code versus a Reed Solomon only code scheme has been investigated as well as the effectiveness of a Periodic Convolutional Interleaver in dispersing errors of certain types. The work effort consisted of development of software that allows simulation studies with the appropriate coding schemes plus either simulated data with errors or actual data with errors. The software program is entitled Communication Link Error Analysis (CLEAN) and models downlink errors, forward error correcting schemes, and interleavers.

Ebel, William J.↗

An investigation into the milliarcsecond attitude control errors of Hubble Space Telescope

An analysis of the fine pointing errors of the Hubble Space Telescope (HST), in the range from 1 to 15 milliarcsecs, is reported on. The emphasis is on the study of the performance characteristics of the pointing control system, fine guidance sensors and the optical telescope assembly, which produce relative attitude and astrometric measurement errors. Since the first servicing mission in December 1993, the HST relative short term position stability is of the order of 3 milliarcsecs RMS when averaged over 1 min intervals. At this level of accuracy, longer term systematic attitude errors in this range can have a noticeable impact on the telescope's observations. The various error sources are described, including: internal temperature effects; spacecraft structure temperature effects; calibration procedures, and computational inaccuracies.

Bradley, A. J.↗

Autonomous Navigation Error Propagation Assessment for Lunar Surface Mobility Applications

The NASA Vision for Space Exploration is focused on the return of astronauts to the Moon. While navigation systems have already been proven in the Apollo missions to the moon, the current exploration campaign will involve more extensive and extended missions requiring new concepts for lunar navigation. In this document, the results of an autonomous navigation error propagation assessment are provided. The analysis is intended to be the baseline error propagation analysis for which Earth-based and Lunar-based radiometric data are added to compare these different architecture schemes, and quantify the benefits of an integrated approach, in how they can handle lunar surface mobility applications when near the Lunar South pole or on the Lunar Farside.

Welch, Bryan W.↗

Performance Analysis of HF Band FB-MC-SS

Abstract—In a recent paper [1] the filter bank multicarrier spread spectrum (FB-MC-SS) waveform was proposed for wideband spread spectrum HF communications. A significant benefit of this waveform is robustness against narrow and partial band interference. Simulation results in [1] demonstrated good performance in a wideband HF channel over a wide range of conditions. In this paper we present a theoretical analysis of the bit error probably for this system. Our analysis tailors the results from [2] where BER performance was analyzed for maximum ration combining systems that accounted for correlation between subcarriers and channel estimation error. Equations are give for BER that closely match the simulated performance in most situations.

Analysis↗

Statistical considerations in design of spacelab experiments

After making an analysis of experimental error sources, statistical models were developed for the design and analysis of potential Space Shuttle experiments. Guidelines for statistical significance and/or confidence limits of expected results were also included. The models were then tested out on the following proposed Space Shuttle biomedical experiments: (1) bone density by computer tomography; (2) basal metabolism; and (3) total body water. Analysis of those results and therefore of the models proved inconclusive due to the lack of previous research data and statistical values. However, the models were seen as possible guides to making some predictions and decisions.

Robinson, J.↗

Video camera system for locating bullet holes in targets at a ballistics tunnel

A system consisting of a single charge coupled device (CCD) video camera, computer controlled video digitizer, and software to automate the measurement was developed to measure the location of bullet holes in targets at the International Shooters Development Fund (ISDF)/NASA Ballistics Tunnel. The camera/digitizer system is a crucial component of a highly instrumented indoor 50 meter rifle range which is being constructed to support development of wind resistant, ultra match ammunition. The system was designed to take data rapidly (10 sec between shoots) and automatically with little operator intervention. The system description, measurement concept, and procedure are presented along with laboratory tests of repeatability and bias error. The long term (1 hour) repeatability of the system was found to be 4 microns (one standard deviation) at the target and the bias error was found to be less than 50 microns. An analysis of potential errors and a technique for calibration of the system are presented.

Burner, A. W.↗