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Energy consumption and CO{sub 2} emissions in Iran, 2025

Climate change and global warming as the key human societies' threats are essentially associated with energy consumption and CO{sub 2} emissions. A system dynamic model was developed in this study to model the energy consumption and CO{sub 2} emission trends for Iran over 2000–2025. Energy policy factors are considered in analyzing the impact of different energy consumption factors on environmental quality. The simulation results show that the total energy consumption is predicted to reach 2150 by 2025, while that value in 2010 is 1910, which increased by 4.3% yearly. Accordingly, the total CO{sub 2} emissions in 2025 will reach 985 million tonnes, which shows about 5% increase yearly. Furthermore, we constructed policy scenarios based on energy intensity reduction. The analysis show that CO{sub 2} emissions will decrease by 12.14% in 2025 compared to 2010 in the scenario of 5% energy intensity reduction, and 17.8% in the 10% energy intensity reduction scenario. The results obtained in this study provide substantial awareness regarding Irans future energy and CO{sub 2} emission outlines. - Highlights: • Creation of an energy consumption model using system dynamics. • The effect of different policies on energy consumption and emission reductions. • An ascending trend for the environmental costs caused by CO{sub 2} emissions is observed. • An urgent need for energy saving and emission reductions in Iran.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Process Modeling and Techno-Economic Analysis of a CO 2 Capture Process Using Fixed Bed Reactors with a Microencapsulated Solvent

A detailed model of a capsule containing sodium carbonate solution is developed here to study the microencapsulated carbon capture solvents (MECS). A rigorous vapor–liquid equilibrium model is developed for the Na 2 CO 3 –CO 2 –H 2 O system, where liquid-phase nonideality is modeled by the electrolyte nonrandom two-liquid model. The data from the experiments conducted at the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory is used to obtain a maximum likelihood estimate of the initial solvent concentration inside the capsules and the parameters for the capsule model. A nonisothermal, dynamic model of a fixed bed contactor filled with these capsules is then developed. In addition to direct steam injection, indirect heating using an embedded heat exchanger is modeled for desorption. Finally, the model is used to simulate temperature swing absorption and desorption cycles. The results of these studies indicate that there is an optimal residence time or superficial flue gas velocity to minimize the bed volume. However, the total energy requirement for desorption monotonically decreases with increased residence time as the proportion of the sensible heat to the total regeneration heat keeps decreasing. Furthermore, heat recovery from the bed is crucial to keep energy penalty for regeneration low. A techno-economic analysis is conducted, and the equivalent annual operating cost (EAOC) is analyzed for two different reactor materials (concrete and carbon-steel) and compared with a system using a conventional monoethanolamine (MEA) solvent. In this work, the minimum EAOC for the MECS fixed bed configuration is approximately 1.8–2.7 times higher than the EAOC for an MEA system with a similar amount of heat recovery (85%). The impact of ±50% uncertainty in the capital cost estimate is also evaluated, and the minimum EAOC is 1.5 times higher than the MEA technology for 85% heat recovery. These results using microencapsulated sodium carbonate solution are a starting point that sets an upper limit on the cost of the MECS carbon-capture system. Improvements to the MECS capsules (e.g., using a higher carbonate concentration and lowering the shell mass transfer resistance) and also exploring other contactor technologies are expected to decrease the system cost and make it more competitive.

20 FOSSIL-FUELED POWER PLANTS↗

Compartment modeling of dynamic brain PET—The impact of scatter corrections on parameter errors

Purpose: The aim of this study was to investigate the effect of scatter and its correction on kinetic parameters in dynamic brain positron emission tomography (PET) tumor imaging. The 2-tissue compartment model was used, and two different reconstruction methods and two scatter correction (SC) schemes were investigated. Methods: The GATE Monte Carlo (MC) software was used to perform 2 × 15 full PET scan simulations of a voxelized head phantom with inserted tumor regions. The two sets of kinetic parameters of all tissues were chosen to represent the 2-tissue compartment model for the tracer 3′-deoxy-3′-({sup 18}F)fluorothymidine (FLT), and were denoted FLT{sub 1} and FLT{sub 2}. PET data were reconstructed with both 3D filtered back-projection with reprojection (3DRP) and 3D ordered-subset expectation maximization (OSEM). Images including true coincidences with attenuation correction (AC) and true+scattered coincidences with AC and with and without one of two applied SC schemes were reconstructed. Kinetic parameters were estimated by weighted nonlinear least squares fitting of image derived time–activity curves. Calculated parameters were compared to the true input to the MC simulations. Results: The relative parameter biases for scatter-eliminated data were 15%, 16%, 4%, 30%, 9%, and 7% (FLT{sub 1}) and 13%, 6%, 1%, 46%, 12%, and 8% (FLT{sub 2}) for K{sub 1}, k{sub 2}, k{sub 3}, k{sub 4}, V{sub a}, and K{sub i}, respectively. As expected, SC was essential for most parameters since omitting it increased biases by 10 percentage points on average. SC was not found necessary for the estimation of K{sub i} and k{sub 3}, however. There was no significant difference in parameter biases between the two investigated SC schemes or from parameter biases from scatter-eliminated PET data. Furthermore, neither 3DRP nor OSEM yielded the smallest parameter biases consistently although there was a slight favor for 3DRP which produced less biased k{sub 3} and K{sub i} estimates while OSEM resulted in a less biased V{sub a}. The uncertainty in OSEM parameters was about 26% (FLT{sub 1}) and 12% (FLT{sub 2}) larger than for 3DRP although identical postfilters were applied. Conclusions: SC was important for good parameter estimations. Both investigated SC schemes performed equally well on average and properly corrected for the scattered radiation, without introducing further bias. Furthermore, 3DRP was slightly favorable over OSEM in terms of kinetic parameter biases and SDs.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DREEM

A System Dynamics Model for Assessing Dynamic Rare Earth Production, Demand and U.S. Wind Energy Demand

Imholte, Daniel↗

Adaptive Stiffness Power Take-Off System for a Hydraulic Hose-Pump Point Absorber Wave Energy Converter

Two crucial challenges faced in the design of ocean wave energy converters (WECs) are maintaining high capacity factors and remaining robust in everchanging, harsh ocean environments. This study introduces a novel mechanism for achieving reactive WEC control with a soft hydraulic power take-off, thereby addressing both challenges. The device of interest involves a hydraulic pump, constructed from a fluidic flexible matrix composite (F2MC), which is cyclically stretched by driving waves and pressurizes working fluid through a turbine-generator. This class of fiber-reinforced stretch hoses is established for ocean use as robust moorings and shock absorbers. The dynamic properties of the F2MC pump depend on internal pressure, which can be controlled by a continuously variable transmission between the turbine and generator, allowing the system to be adapted for better performance over a wide range of wave conditions. This work presents a dynamic model for operation and adaptive behavior of this power take-off system, experimentally validates components of the model, and performs dynamic simulations of the system that show increases in power production and capacity factor compared to non-adaptive operation for a variety of driving wave conditions. This work develops the basis for future large-scale experimental testing and controller design of this system.

Wave energy conversion, fluidic flexible matrix co↗

Systems approach to software fault tolerance

Computing systems are employed for aerospace applications with high reliability requirements. In order to provide the needed reliability, it was necessary to make use of computing systems with fault-tolerance characteristics. Traditionally, fault tolerance is achieved through the use of hardware redundance. However, fault-tolerant techniques based on suitable software design considerations have also been developed. The present paper is concerned with the major issues arising in the context of an application of fault-tolerant software techniques to dynamic systems. Attention is given to fault-tolerant flight software, software component stability, system stability with fault-tolerant software, the preservation of functional performance, N-version vs. recovery blocks in flight software, systems-based software, static and dynamic models, static and dynamic consistency tests, and recovery block initialization.

Caglayan, A. K.↗

The validation of a human force model to predict dynamic forces resulting from multi-joint motions

The development and validation is examined of a dynamic strength model for humans. This model is based on empirical data. The shoulder, elbow, and wrist joints were characterized in terms of maximum isolated torque, or position and velocity, in all rotational planes. This data was reduced by a least squares regression technique into a table of single variable second degree polynomial equations determining torque as a function of position and velocity. The isolated joint torque equations were then used to compute forces resulting from a composite motion, in this case, a ratchet wrench push and pull operation. A comparison of the predicted results of the model with the actual measured values for the composite motion indicates that forces derived from a composite motion of joints (ratcheting) can be predicted from isolated joint measures. Calculated T values comparing model versus measured values for 14 subjects were well within the statistically acceptable limits and regression analysis revealed coefficient of variation between actual and measured to be within 0.72 and 0.80.

Pandya, Abhilash K.↗

Modelling and simulation of Space Station Freedom berthing dynamics and control

A large-angle, flexible, multibody, dynamic modeling capability has been developed to help validate numerical simulations of the dynamic motion and control forces which occur during berthing of Space Station Freedom to the Shuttle Orbiter in the early assembly flights. This paper outlines the dynamics and control of the station, the attached Shuttle Remote Manipulator System, and the orbiter. The simulation tool developed for the analysis is described and the results of two simulations are presented. The first is a simulated maneuver from a gravity-gradient attitude to a torque equilibrium attitude using the station reaction control jets. The second simulation is the berthing of the station to the orbiter with the station control moment gyros actively maintaining an estimated torque equilibrium attitude. The influence of the elastic dynamic behavior of the station and of the Remote Manipulator System on the attitude control of the station/orbiter system during each maneuver was investigated. The flexibility of the station and the arm were found to have only a minor influence on the attitude control of the system during the maneuvers.

Cooper, Paul A.↗

Synoptic Mapping of Chemical Composition, Thermal Structure, and Air Motion from UARS Observations

An operational mapping algorithm was developed to process measurements of individual species observed by different satellite instruments on board UARS. Based on Fast Fourier Synoptic Mapping (FFSM), the algorithm accounts for the precessing orbit of UARS, the error of individual instruments, and gaps associated with instrument duty cycle and the satellite yaw maneuver. It provides synoptic structure and evolution on periods as short as 1 day, derived collectively from all observations of an individual species. The algorithm was applied to synoptically map temperature, thickness, and several chemical constituents observed by the instruments: MLS, CLAES, ISAMS, and HALOE. Each field variable observed by these instruments was mapped twice-daily in continuous global time series several months long. Mapped behavior produced via FFSM was compared against standard archived products generated via Kalman filtering. The standard map products reveal similar behavior, but are limited to features of larger scale. Tracer structure that develops through flow deformation and attending transport is therefore represented in those products more coarsely, eventually being sheared down to scales that are no longer represented properly. The synoptic time series also reveal a diurnal cycle for several of the constituents, one that emerges clearly in their space-time spectra. The zonal and meridional structure of diurnal variability was mapped by filtering the space-time spectrum, an intermediate product of FFSM, to those scales resolved by the UARS sampling. Geographical variations of the diurnal cycle have also been evaluated in its seasonal-mean structure by compositing distributions at individual local times. Both were compared to diurnal variations in chemical models and in dynamical models that account for transport by the diurnal tide. Diurnal variations were found to introduce spurious behavior into the archived products generated via Kalman filtering, behavior that is misrepresented in those synoptic time series. Aliasing by under-sampled diurnal variations introduces a bias into the time-mean structure of archived products. That systematic error is manifested as anomalous wave structure in the time-mean fields. By contrast, synoptic time series generated via FFSM faithfully represent such behavior as varying diurnally, so it does not corrupt time-mean structure. Tracer structure mapped via the above algorithm was being applied to determine the Brewer-Dobson circulation of the stratosphere through Lagrangian considerations. Preliminary results are encouraging: They reveal diabatic ascent in the tropics, balanced by diabatic descent over the winter hemisphere. This Lagrangian description of transport derived from UARS tracer measurements would be potentially valuable for diagnosing interannual changes of transport, specifically, in relation to interannual changes of total ozone. Regrettably, support was reduced to 50% of the approved funding level, leaving this component incomplete.

Salby, Murry L.↗

Reduction of Tunnel Dynamics at the National Transonic Facility (Invited)

This paper describes the results of recent efforts to reduce the tunnel dynamics at the National Transonic Facility. The results presented describe the findings of an extensive data analysis, the proposed solutions to reduce dynamics and the results of implementing these solutions. These results show a 90% reduction in the dynamics around the model support structure and a small impact on reducing model dynamics. Also presented are several continuing efforts to further reduce dynamics.

Kilgore, W. A.↗

NASA Tech Briefs, July 2009

Topics covered include: Dual Cryogenic Capacitive Density Sensor; Hail Monitor Sensor; Miniature Six-Axis Load Sensor for Robotic Fingertip; Improved Blackbody Temperature Sensors for a Vacuum Furnace; Wrap-Around Out-the-Window Sensor Fusion System; Wide-Range Temperature Sensors with High-Level Pulse Train Output; Terminal Descent Sensor Simulation; A Robust Mechanical Sensing System for Unmanned Sea Surface Vehicles; Additive for Low-Temperature Operation of Li-(CF)n Cells; Li/CFx Cells Optimized for Low-Temperature Operation; Number Codes Readable by Magnetic-Field-Response Recorders; Determining Locations by Use of Networks of Passive Beacons; Superconducting Hot-Electron Submillimeter-Wave Detector; Large-Aperture Membrane Active Phased-Array Antennas; Optical Injection Locking of a VCSEL in an OEO; Measuring Multiple Resistances Using Single-Point Excitation; Improved-Bandwidth Transimpedance Amplifier; Inter-Symbol Guard Time for Synchronizing Optical PPM; Novel Materials Containing Single-Wall Carbon Nanotubes Wrapped in Polymer Molecules; Light-Curing Adhesive Repair Tapes; Thin-Film Solid Oxide Fuel Cells; Zinc Alloys for the Fabrication of Semiconductor Devices; Small, Lightweight, Collapsible Glove Box; Radial Halbach Magnetic Bearings; Aerial Deployment and Inflation System for Mars Helium Balloons; Steel Primer Chamber Assemblies for Dual Initiated Pyrovalves; Voice Coil Percussive Mechanism Concept for Hammer Drill; Inherently Ducted Propfans and Bi-Props; Silicon Nanowire Growth at Chosen Positions and Orientations; Detecting Airborne Mercury by Use of Gold Nanowires; Detecting Airborne Mercury by Use of Palladium Chloride; Micro Electron MicroProbe and Sample Analyzer; Nanowire Electron Scattering Spectroscopy; Electron-Spin Filters Would Offer Spin Polarization Greater than 1; Subcritical-Water Extraction of Organics from Solid Matrices; A Model for Predicting Thermoelectric Properties of Bi2Te3; Integrated Miniature Arrays of Optical Biomolecule Detectors; A Software Rejuvenation Framework for Distributed Computing; Kurtosis Approach to Solution of a Nonlinear ICA Problem; Robust Software Architecture for Robots; R4SA for Controlling Robots; Bio-Inspired Neural Model for Learning Dynamic Models; Evolutionary Computing Methods for Spectral Retrieval; Monitoring Disasters by Use of Instrumented Robotic Aircraft; Complexity for Survival of Living Systems; Using Drained Spacecraft Propellant Tanks for Habitation; Connecting Node; and Electrolytes for Low-Temperature Operation of Li-CFx Cells.

Source record↗

Terral De Vicuna, a Foehnlike Wind in Semiarid Northern Chile: Meteorological Aspects and Implications for the Fulfillment of Chill Requirements in Deciduous Fruit Trees

The terral de Vicuña is a warm and dry wind that flows down the Elqui Valley in north-central Chile typically at dawn and early morning. Given that most terral episodes occur in austral winter when chill accumulation by deciduous fruit trees proceeds, negative effects on agriculture may be expected. During 11 (2004-14) winters a meteorological characterization of terral winds and the assessment of their impact on chill accumulation, by the modified Utah Model and the Dynamic Model, were performed. Within this period, 67 terral days (TD) were identified as those in which nighttime to early morning wind direction and speed, air temperature, and relative humidity reached defined thresholds on an hourly basis (terral hours). Most frequent TD featured 6-9 consecutive terral hours; duration is considered here as a proxy for their intensity. Synoptic-scale meteorological analysis shows that 65% of moderate and strong terral events develop as a cold, migratory anticyclone drifts poleward of the study area, coinciding with the onset of a midtropospheric ridge over central Chile, bringing southwest winds on top of the Andes (approximately 500-hPa level). The remaining 35% are either associated with 500-hPa easterlies (foehn like), with prefrontal conditions ahead of a trough driving northwest 500-hPa winds, or with transitional 500-hPa westerlies.Assessments of chill accumulation during TD show that, although present average and cold winter conditions do not represent a major TD hazard to local agriculture, lower chill accumulation associated with anomalously high nocturnal temperatures could be significantly more important during present and future warmer winters.

agriculture↗

Solar Activity Modeling: From Subgranular Dynamical Scales to the Solar Cycles

The dynamical effects of solar magnetoconvection span a wide range spatial and temporal scales that extend from the interior to the corona and from fast turbulent motions to global magnetic activity. To study the solar activity on short temporal scales (from minutes to hours), we use 3D radiative MHD simulations that allow us to investigate complex turbulent interactions that drive various phenomena, such as plasma eruptions, spontaneous formation of magnetic structures, funnel-like structures and magnetic loops in the corona, and others. In particular, we focus on multi-scale processes of energy exchange across layers of the solar interior and atmosphere, which contribute to coronal heating and eruptive dynamics. For modeling global-scale activity, we use a data assimilation approach that has demonstrated great potential for building reliable long-term forecasts of solar activity. In particular, it has been shown that the Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF) method applied to the Parker-Kleeorin-Ruzmakin dynamo model is capable of predicting solar activity up to one sunspot cycle ahead in time, as well as estimating the properties of the next cycle a few years before it begins. In this presentation, using the available magnetogram data, we discuss development of the methodology and forecast quality criteria (including forecast uncertainties and sources of errors). We demonstrate the influence of observational limitations on prediction accuracy, and we present the EnKF predictions of the upcoming Solar Cycle (25) based on both the sunspot number series and observed magnetic fields and discuss the uncertainties and potential of the data assimilation approach for modeling and forecasting solar activity.

Kitiashvili, I. N.↗

Plugin for Integrated Exoskeleton Simulations (PIES)

Upper extremity offload is a new capability to be developed for the Active Response Gravity Offload System (ARGOS) at the Johnson Space Center. To address the need, the Actuated Real-time Control for ARGOS Negation of Gravitational Effects on the Limbs (ARC-ANGEL) system is being designed and developed by the HumanWorks team in the Flight Systems Branch (ER3). The Plugin for Integrated Exoskeleton Simulations (PIES) is a multibody modeling and analysis capability developed by the Digital Astronaut Simulation (DAS) team in the Simulation and Graphics Branch (ER7). The C++ plugin is used in the open source biomechanics software, OpenSim (Stanford University), and integrates human multibody modeling with system dynamic modeling. The latest ‘flavor’ is the ANGEL with Passive and Powered Line of force Evaluation (APPLE) PIES.

Kaitlin Lostroscio↗

Modeling and Optimization of a Nuclear Integrated Energy System for the Remote Microgrid on El Hierro

Nuclear microreactors are a potential technology to provide heat and electricity for remote microgrids. There is potential for the microgrid on the island of El Hierro to use a microreactor, within an integrated energy system (IES), to generate electricity and provide desalinated water. This work proposes a workflow for optimizing and analyzing IESs for microgrids. In this study, an IES incorporating a microreactor, thermal energy storage (TES) system, combined heat and power plant, and a thermal desalination plant was designed, optimized, and analyzed using Idaho National Laboratory’s Framework for Optimization of Resources and Economics (FORCE) toolset. The optimization tool, Holistic Energy Resource Optimization Network (HERON), was used to determine the optimal capacity sizes and dispatch for the reactor and thermal energy storage systems to meet demand. The optimized reactor and TES sizes were found to be 11.61 MWth and 58.47 MWhth, respectively, when optimizing the IES to replace 95% of the island’s existing diesel generation needs. A dynamic model of the system was created in the Modelica language, using models from the HYBRID repository, to analyze and verify the dispatch from the optimizer. The dynamic model was able to meet the ramp rates while maintaining reactor power with minimal control adjustments.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Assessing Dynamic Behaviors in Converter- Dominated Power Systems via RMS and EMT Simulations: A Study of Hawaii’s NELHA Microgrid

The transition from conventional power systems to converter-based microgrids has significantly advanced sustainability, clean energy integration, and operational reliability. However, this paradigm shift introduces operational challenges due to the intermittent nature of renewable energy sources and the non-linear characteristics of power electronic loads, inducing voltage fluctuations and harmonic distortions that complicate voltage and frequency regulation. Accurate dynamic modeling is hypothesized to be critical for capturing such effects, enabling reliable simulation and control strategy development. This study introduces an innovative dynamic modeling framework for a real-world converter-based microgrid, utilizing both root mean square (RMS) and electromagnetic transient (EMT) simulation methods. The microgrid was modeled in DIgSILENT PowerFactory, with simulations calibrated against high-resolution field measurements from SEL-735 power quality meters. Results show that RMS simulations effectively characterize steady-state dynamics, while EMT simulations are essential for capturing high-frequency transients and non-linear effects from photovoltaic inverters and variable frequency drives (VFDs). This complementary approach provides a comprehensive understanding of microgrid behavior, providing critical insights for improving simulation accuracy, advancing protection schemes, and improving resilience in future low-inertia power networks.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Comparison of Optimal Energy Management Strategies Using Dynamic Programming, Model Predictive Control, and Constant Velocity Prediction

Due to the recent advancements in autonomous vehicle technology, future vehicle velocity predictions are becoming more robust which allows fuel economy (FE) improvements in hybrid electric vehicles through optimal energy management strategies (EMS). A real- world highway drive cycle (DC) and a controls-oriented 2017 Toyota Prius Prime model are used to study potential FE improvements. We proposed three important metrics for comparison: (1) perfect full drive cycle prediction using dynamic programming, (2) 10-second prediction horizon model predictive control (MPC), and (3) 10-second constant velocity prediction. These different velocity predictions are put into an optimal EMS derivation algorithm to derive optimal engine torque and engine speed. The results show that the constant velocity prediction algorithm outperformed the baseline control strategy but underperformed the MPC strategy with an average 1.58% and 2.45% of FE improvement with highway and city-highway DC. Also, using a 10-second prediction window MPC strategy provided FE improvement results close to the full drive cycle prediction case. MPC has the potential to achieve 60%-65% and 70% - 80% of global FE improvement over highway and city-highway DC respectively.

Patel, Amol Arvind↗