Results for “droughts” — Page 77

DOE OSTI2025

From tides to seasons: How cyclic tidal drivers and plant physiology interact to affect carbon cycling at the terrestrial-estuarine boundary (Final technical report)

Coastal ecosystems are among the most biologically and biogeochemically active and diverse systems on Earth. Because they act as important linkages between terrestrial ecosystems and the open ocean, their incorporation in Earth system models (ESMs) is critical to predict coastal and global responses to environmental changes. However, they vary greatly in the magnitude of tides and the volume and timing of freshwater input from land, making it challenging to model the major biogeochemical reactions that control productivity and greenhouse gas emissions across coastal terrestrial aquatic interfaces (TAIs). Our overall objective was to improve mechanistic process understanding and modeling of tidal wetland hydro-biogeochemistry in coastal TAIs. We established a new flux tower site (Ameriflux US-PLo) in the oligohaline part of the Parker River to continuously monitor ecosystem-scale carbon fluxes under temporally varying salinity conditions. The site is co-located with long-term monitoring plots of the Plum Island Ecosystems LTER project. We installed wells and redox sensors in the marsh interior and creek bank, established biomass monitoring plots and deployed novel optode sensors in both locations. We used this data to parameterize plant-mediated transport in PFLOTRAN and tested the impact of soil heterogeneity on porewater constituents and gas fluxes. We collected observations of root oxygen release with a novel planar optode system in the field. Flux data collected during the measurement period encompasses a large variation in salinity ranging from drought to record precipitation years. We developed a method to extract functional relationships from the flux data using artificial neural networks, identifying salinity thresholds for CH 4 fluxes. Finally, we are using the coupled ELM-PFLOTRAN model to test the impact of antecedent hydrological conditions on the salinity-CH 4 flux relationship. This grant contributed to the professional development of one postdoc, three research assistants and one graduate student. The sensor data has been shared with external collaborators.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Value of Nuclear Energy to the Reliability of the North American Power System: Results for Western and Eastern Interconnections

This report documents the fulfillment of a milestone for the United States (U.S.) Department of Energy Office of Nuclear Energy Light Water Reactor Sustainability Program: completing a baseline study of regional impact of nuclear power plants and hydrogen production in maintaining grid services and power quality. Models have been comprehensively demonstrated for the Western Interconnection, or Western Electric Coordinating Council area, and in the Eastern Interconnection for scenarios representative of past extreme events (e.g., drought and heat waves). Understanding the impact on the reliability of the bulk electric system of any reduction in generation capacity from nuclear power, for any reason, is the motivation of this work. Factors that might lead to the premature or unplanned closure of nuclear plants, extended outages, or repurposing of nuclear power include: • Aging infrastructure: Many nuclear power plants in the U.S. are nearing the end of their designed operating lives. Upgrading aging infrastructure can be expensive, and some utilities may choose to retire plants rather than invest in costly upgrades. • Low wholesale electricity prices: The deregulation of the electricity market in many states has led to increased competition and driven down wholesale electricity prices, causing nuclear power operators to seek other revenue sources for their heat and power such as clean hydrogen production. • Renewables growth: The rapid growth of renewable energy sources like solar and wind power is posing a challenge to traditional generation sources like nuclear. While many see renewables as a key part of the clean energy transition, their intermittent nature requires additional grid solutions for reliable power supply. • The potential for regulatory decisions to be in conflict: In its 2021 rulemaking, EPA rule (86 FR 880), the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) set a compliance date for the ban on processing and distribution in commerce of Decabromodiphenyl Ether (DecaBDE). Since DecaBDE is in many components, particularly wiring, of nuclear power plants which are deemed safety-related or important to safety, three plants would not have been able to restart after their 2023 spring outages, and numerous others would have faced issues in the near future. Fortunately, in this case, the EPA provided relief to the nuclear energy industry. The report provides a summary of the significant role nuclear energy plays in the United States’ power generation mix, supplying around 20% of the nation’s electricity generation, spread across 28 U.S. states. Nuclear power is reliable, mostly unaffected by weather and seasonal changes, and provides a consistent source of baseload power. In terms of capacity, nuclear power plants account for as much as 26% of balancing area power generation capacity. Nuclear power also provides a substantial contribution (e.g., 10% of the inertia in the Eastern Interconnection) of the synchronous spinning mass/inertia that buffers the rate at which frequency changes when a load and generation imbalance occurs (e.g., a large plant trips or a load is suddenly shed due to a transmission outage). This contribution is critical for maintaining grid stability during sudden changes in load or generation.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

DOE OSTI2020

Electricity Subsector Transmission Resilience Maturity Model (TRMM) User Guide

The electric transmission sector is facing a range of threats to its functionality that are either new, more severe than experienced in earlier years, or more well understood. Such threats include more frequent and more severe extreme weather events, wildfires, droughts, and human-caused physical and cyberattacks. They also include geological, electromagnetic, and biological events. The novelty or increasing severity of these threats creates a significant need for transmission owners to implement programs to prevent, prepare for, respond to, and recover from such incidents. The national and economic security of the United States depends on the reliable functioning of the Nation’s critical infrastructure in the face of such threats, and the transmission networks are essential components of that infrastructure. The Electricity Subsector Transmission Resilience Maturity Model (TRMM) is a tool that a transmission organization can use to objectively evaluate and benchmark its currently established transmission resilience strategies, programs, policies, and investments, in order to target and prioritize enhancements where needed. The TRMM was developed to address the unique characteristics of the transmission system. The model can enable users to: • evaluate and benchmark their organization’s resilience capabilities, effectively and consistently • prioritize actions and investments to improve the resilience of their systems • share transmission-related knowledge, best practices, and relevant references within their organization and with business partners as a means to improve resilience capabilities • contribute to increasing the overall resilience of the Nation’s transmission systems. The TRMM provides descriptive rather than prescriptive industry-focused guidance. The model content is presented at a high level of abstraction so that it can be interpreted by transmission organizations of various types, structures, and sizes. The model is designed to an be easy-to-use, self-assessment tool.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2026

Leveraging ARM Data to Improve Models for Predictive Understanding of Energy and Security Challenges

Extreme weather and natural hazards can disrupt the energy sector, affecting demand, generation, transmission, distribution, consumption and operational planning at regional and national scales. These disruptions stem from a broad range of atmospheric phenomena, including winter storms, freezing rain, wet snow loading, severe convection, flooding and landslides, wildfires, prolonged heat, and drought. Many of these same phenomena can also affect national security through impacts to transportation and infrastructure. To support the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) focus on energy resilience and national security, the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) User Facility is uniquely positioned to contribute measurement data, analyses, and modeling frameworks that can significantly improve predictive understanding of these hazards to mitigate their effects. To explore this opportunity, ARM convened a two-part virtual workshop in November 2025. The workshop engaged interdisciplinary experts in atmospheric science, energy systems, modeling, and operations. The goal of the meeting was to engage with these interdisciplinary experts to address three questions: • What are examples of atmospheric processes that represent significant risks to energy security or national security and where are those risks greatest? • What measurements or measurement strategies would improve ARM’s capacity to address these issues? • How can ARM and users of the ARM facility better work with the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) and multi-sector modeling communities to apply ARM data to improving E3SM simulations of these phenomena? Participants were asked to submit white papers ahead of the meeting to initiate thinking on these themes and to help organize discussions. Workshop sessions were then organized around themes identified in the white papers. First from the white papers and then through subsequent discussions, workshop participants identified many examples that address the three questions listed above. Participants called out energy system vulnerabilities to weather phenomena such as the impact of freezing rain, strong winds, and excessive heat on power grids. They also noted the effects that weather phenomena could have on energy demand or supply (e.g., through effects of extreme temperatures). They called out security vulnerabilities such as impacts to crops from aerosol-borne pathogens and risks to industry due to melting permafrost in the Arctic. In all, over a dozen meteorological phenomena were linked to energy or security vulnerabilities. For many of the identified phenomena, participants pointed out where ARM was well poised to address issues (e.g., through measurements of cloud microphysics to inform studies of freezing rain) but also noted needs for additional measurements or modified measurement strategies. For example, adaptive scanning of severe weather would be valuable for probing winter storms or severe convection. Participants pointed out the value in integrating external observations with ARM measurements and with applying artificial intelligence (AI) to ARM observation analysis and they advocated for using model simulations to help optimize measurement strategies through Observing System Simulation Experiments (OSSEs). It was clear from the workshop that there are many ways that ARM observations can be used to mitigate energy and security concerns, but meeting participants were also asked to identify what they considered to be the greatest opportunities by ranking issues pertaining to the three workshop questions. This was accomplished through a survey administered to participants between the two virtual sessions. The highest-priority phenomena identified were winter storms, severe convection, and arctic processes. Discussion in the second session, therefore, focused primarily on these three areas, which were most fully developed in exploring ARM opportunities. Nevertheless, it was also clear that ARM has opportunities to contribute to all the identified topics. This report describes the workshop, including input from discussion and white papers (Sections 2 and 3) and a list of priority recommendations (section 4). Many other ideas for ARM contributions are discussed in individual white papers (Appendix D).

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2025

Mesofluidic Inline Separation for Produced Water Treatment

Mesofluidic inline separation developed by PNNL represents an opportunity to remove a key barrier in the treatment of produced water, namely suspended solids that clog downstream operations. The US alone produces over 800 billion gallons of produced water each year, most of which is reinjected underground (but not into the aquifers) as waste. The impact from treating and reusing even a fraction of this wastewater is immense as aquifers in the Midwest and elsewhere dry. The work described herein is essential to leveraging the opportunity to improve produced water quality (to allow for beneficial use) by combining mesofluidic inline separators with reverse osmosis systems. Providing water for agricultural and industrial uses in the American Southwest and Midwest by allowing the reuse of petroleum produced water may be critical to the long-term economics of the region. This is especially true as drought conditions are rapidly lowering aquifer levels in these regions. The incumbent technology for desalination is reverse osmosis (RO) due to its ability to treat a wide range of feedwaters and technological maturity. However, suspended solids cause RO (and other dissolved solids removal technologies) to become clogged and loose performance. A common strategy is to use prefilters upstream of RO systems, but these membrane-based filters easily clog and require regular maintenance. Unlike membrane filters, mesofluidic inline separators provide removal of suspended solids with much lower pressure drops than conventional systems filtration systems, permitting substantially higher flowrates. Although the amount of produced water from petroleum operations is vast, only a small fraction of it is reused or turned into potable water, for example, because of the lack of technologies to remove both dissolved and suspended solids at a significant throughput. This project shows that mesofluidic inline separators coupled with a commercial dissolved solids removal technology (RO) are positioned to do exactly that. Mesofluidic inline separators fit within commercial piping and are tunable for particle sizes of interest as described below. Indeed, mesofluidic inline separators have remarkably smaller footprints than competing filtration technologies and are easily transportable from jobsite to jobsite. This technology has no moving parts so that solids removal can be accomplished at much lower operating cost.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

DOE OSTI2026

Cooperative Agreement To Analyze variabiLity, change and predictabilitY in the earth SysTem (CATALYST)

CATALYST proposes to perform foundational coordinated research in a team-oriented collaborative effort aimed at advancing a robust understanding of modes of Earth system variability and change using models, observations and process studies. The proposed research will address the DOE/BER mission by exploring the limits to predictability, identifying fundamental underlying mechanisms, quantifying interactions among modes of variability, and discovering tipping points in the Earth system to understand the current and future impacts of these phenomena on regional and global climate. Four fundamental gaps are identified in our knowledge of the Earth system: 1) What are the limits to predictability on various timescales? 2) What are the interactions among modes of Earth system variability? 3) How may modes of Earth system variability change in response to changes in external forcing, and what are the tipping points involved with those changes? 4) How are high impact events connected to modes of Earth system variability and how may they change in the future? Related to those gaps in our knowledge, we formulate four research objectives to address those gaps using a combination of Earth system models (ESMs) and machine learning (ML) methods. Research Objective 1 (RO1) addresses the first gap above and proposes to understand modes of variability and their limits of predictability on subseasonal to decadal timescales using ESMs and ML. Research Objective 2 (RO2) addresses the second gap and proposes to use a hierarchy of models to understand relevant processes and feedbacks related to how modes of variability interact with each other. Research Objective 3 (RO3) is designed to study the third gap and proposes to examine the role of external forcings in changes of modes of Earth system variability and their interactions, and the likelihood and predictability of tipping points and irreversible changes. Research Objective 4 (RO4) will address the fourth gap and proposes to use high resolution ESMs, regionally refined models (RRMs), and ML methods to investigate the relationships between high impact events (e.g. flash droughts and precipitation extremes, atmospheric rivers (ARs), tropical cyclones (TCs), storm surge/sea level rise), the synoptic systems that produce them, and their changes related to modes of Earth system variability. The research will involve the use of the Community Earth System Model (CESM), Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM), CMIP multi-model data sets, a hierarchy of simpler models, and numerous observational data sets. In the course of the proposed research, CATALYST will contribute to metrics and diagnostics that will be integrated in Coordinated Model Evaluation Capabilities (CMEC), particularly with regards to the Quasi-biennial Oscillation (QBO) and its interactions with the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), high atmospheric pressure blocking, and new precipitation metrics.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

CRADA Final Report: CRADA Number NFE-22-09311 with Agriwater Tech

Livestock wastewater management is a critical concern in the United States, with an annual production of approximately 1.37 billion tons of waste, surpassing human waste by three to twenty times. The mismanagement of manure wastewater poses significant threats to freshwater sources, ecosystems, and public health. Through this project, we proposed an innovative solution using electrocoagulation (EC) treatment. The EC technique is an electrochemical process involving the intentional corrosion of aluminum and iron electrodes to introduce trivalent ions into the solution, facilitating the co-precipitation and coagulation of contaminants and making the removal of water from sludge easier. The project's primary objective is to use EC to convert liquid animal manure into clean water for farm irrigation, drinking, and maintenance. This solution is vital for various farms including those facing drought, pursuing zero-discharge, and seeking Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) permits for livestock farm manure discharge into rivers. Preliminary research shows EC's potential to significantly reduce turbidity and phosphate levels in livestock wastewater, forming the basis for scalable onsite treatment. The goal of this proposed project is to develop an innovative farm-wastewater-treatment process to achieve clean water, fertilizer, and reduced greenhouse gases through electrification of current processes such as coagulation, dewatering, inactivation of viruses and bacteria, and filtration for recycling surface water from farm lagoons.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2025

CRADA Final Report: CRADA Number NFE-22-09311 with Agriwater Tech

Livestock wastewater management is a critical concern in the United States, with an annual production of approximately 1.37 billion tons of waste, surpassing human waste by three to twenty times. The mismanagement of manure wastewater poses significant threats to freshwater sources, ecosystems, and public health. Through this project, we proposed an innovative solution using electrocoagulation (EC) treatment. The EC technique is an electrochemical process involving the intentional corrosion of aluminum and iron electrodes to introduce trivalent ions into the solution, facilitating the co-precipitation and coagulation of contaminants and making the removal of water from sludge easier. The project's primary objective is to use EC to convert liquid animal manure into clean water for farm irrigation, drinking, and maintenance. This solution is vital for various farms including those facing drought, pursuing zero-discharge, and seeking Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) permits for livestock farm manure discharge into rivers. Preliminary research shows EC's potential to significantly reduce turbidity and phosphate levels in livestock wastewater, forming the basis for scalable onsite treatment. The goal of this proposed project is to develop an innovative farm-wastewater-treatment process to achieve clean water, fertilizer, and reduced greenhouse gases through electrification of current processes such as coagulation, dewatering, inactivation of viruses and bacteria, and filtration for recycling surface water from farm lagoons.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

TARP Identifying Critical Thresholds for Acute Response of Plants and Ecosystems to Water Stress at Walker Branch Watershed, 2002-2005

This dataset contains data from a manipulative field study aimed at identifying critical thresholds for acute response of plants and ecosystems to water stress (TARP) that took place at Walker Branch Watershed in Oak Ridge, Tennessee from 2002-2005 (2002-06-20 to 2005-12-16). The study used understory tents for the removal of 100% of the growing-season throughfall and stem flow, to provide data on the impact of acute drought on mechanisms responsible for growth and mortality of deciduous forest canopy trees representative of common plant functional types (Liriodendron and Quercus). Through three years of manipulation (2003, 2004 and 2005; pretreatment measurements in 2002) various measures of tree response to surface moisture deficits were recorded including root and leaf traits, plant nonstructural carbohydrates status, hourly sapflow, basal area, and periodic observations of foliar photosynthesis and conductance. Additionally, environmental data such as air and soil temperature, soil water content, and soil matric potential were recorded. This dataset contains data 16 files in comma-separate (*.csv) format. Additional metadata are provided: 16 data dictionaries and a file-level metadata file in comma separate (*.csv) format and a user guide in PDF (*.pdf) format.

basal area↗

DOE OSTI2023

Summary Data for paper titled: Influence of soil depth, irrigation, and plant genotype on the soil microbiome, metaphenome, and carbon chemistry

Climate change is causing an increase in drought in many soil ecosystems and a loss of soil organic carbon. Calcareous soils may partially mitigate these losses via carbon capture and storage. Here, we aimed to determine how irrigation-supplied soil moisture and perennial plants impact biotic and abiotic soil properties that underpin deep soil carbon chemistry in an unfertilized calcareous soil. Soil was sampled up to one meter in depth from irrigated and planted field treatments and analyzed using a suite of omics and chemical analyses. Carbon cycling processes in the surface soil were dominated by plant-microbe interactions that drive organic carbon cycling, whereas inorganic carbon chemistry dominated in deeper soil layers. Both irrigation and plant cover impacted organic and inorganic carbon pools in the soil profiles. This study reveals the complex interactions between water, plants, minerals, and microorganisms that govern organic and inorganic pools of soil carbon at different depths.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

16s Amplicon Analysis of Soil Data for Interactive effects of depth and differential irrigation on soil microbiome composition and functioning

Genomic DNA was isolated from soil and rhizosphere samples using the Zymo Quick-DNA fecal/soil microbe miniprep kit (catalog no. D6010) according to the manufacturer’s instructions (Zymo Research; Irvine, CA) with the modification of eluting in 100 uL elution buffer. Sample concentrations were quantified using the Qubit dsDNA HS assay kit (Thermo Fisher). For rhizosphere samples only, DNA was subsequently purified using Zymo’s ZR-96 DNA Clean & Concentrator kit (catalog no. D4024) to account for low DNA concentrations of these samples. . In each replicate block, there were five drip irrigation treatments (T1 = 100% normal irrigation, T2 = 56.25%, T3 = 37.5%, T4 = 18.75% and T5=no irrigation. On July 20, the strength of the drought treatments was increased: T1 remained at 100%, whereas T2 changed from 75% to 56.25%, T2 changed from 50% to 37.5%, and T4 changed from 25% to 18.75%. Sequencing was performed as described previously (Naylor, Fansler, et al. 2020). Sequences were amplified on the MiSeq platform (Illumina, San Diego, CA) using 16S primers (515F and 806R) specific to the V4 region. Raw sequence data was processed with the pipeline Hundo for amplicon quality control and annotation. Downstream statistical analyses on 16S datasets were performed using the program R and the packages ‘phyloseq’ and ‘vegan’.

Soil microbiome, metatranscriptomics↗

DOE OSTI2025

Moisture Metaphenome Incubation Analysis Results

The Birch effect, a pulse of CO2 release that occurs when dry soil is rewet, is commonly observed, yet the underlying biogeochemistry remains elusive. Using multi-omics data, real-time mass spectrometry and modeling approaches, we investigated the molecular response to rewetting of a soil microbiome exposed to drought for one and two weeks. The microbiome response was evaluated through analysis of transcript, protein, metabolite, and respiration profiles and metabolic modeling using an enhanced version of the Metabolite Expression Metabolic Network Integration for Pathway Identification and Selection (MEMPIS) algorithm (Roy Chowdhury et al, mSystems, 2019).

Lipton, Mary S [Pacific Northwest National Laborat↗

DOE OSTI2023

Data for Influence of soil depth, irrigation, and plant genotype on the soil microbiome, metaphenome, and carbon chemistry: Summary Data

Climate change is causing an increase in drought in many soil ecosystems and a loss of soil organic carbon. Calcareous soils may partially mitigate these losses via carbon capture and storage. Here, we aimed to determine how irrigation-supplied soil moisture and perennial plants impact biotic and abiotic soil properties that underpin deep soil carbon chemistry in an unfertilized calcareous soil. Soil was sampled up to one meter in depth from irrigated and planted field treatments and analyzed using a suite of omics and chemical analyses. Carbon cycling processes in the surface soil were dominated by plant-microbe interactions that drive organic carbon cycling, whereas inorganic carbon chemistry dominated in deeper soil layers. Both irrigation and plant cover impacted organic and inorganic carbon pools in the soil profiles. This study reveals the complex interactions between water, plants, minerals, and microorganisms that govern organic and inorganic pools of soil carbon at different depths.

Naasko, Katherine I↗

DOE OSTI2023

Data for Influence of soil depth, irrigation, and plant genotype on the soil microbiome, metaphenome, and carbon chemistry: Sequence Data

Climate change is causing an increase in drought in many soil ecosystems and a loss of soil organic carbon. Calcareous soils may partially mitigate these losses via carbon capture and storage. Here, we aimed to determine how irrigation-supplied soil moisture and perennial plants impact biotic and abiotic soil properties that underpin deep soil carbon chemistry in an unfertilized calcareous soil. Soil was sampled up to one meter in depth from irrigated and planted field treatments and analyzed using a suite of omics and chemical analyses. Carbon cycling processes in the surface soil were dominated by plant-microbe interactions that drive organic carbon cycling, whereas inorganic carbon chemistry dominated in deeper soil layers. Both irrigation and plant cover impacted organic and inorganic carbon pools in the soil profiles. This study reveals the complex interactions between water, plants, minerals, and microorganisms that govern organic and inorganic pools of soil carbon at different depths.

Naasko, Katherine I↗

DOE OSTI2022

Populus Trichocarpa Common Garden Genotypes

This dataset consists of labeled images from Populus Trichocarpa genotypes cultivated under both drought and control conditions in Davis, California. The treatment, block, row, position and genotype are indicated on the tag.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Populus_trichocarpa_associated_microbiomes_Cascade_Mountains

Abiotic stresses like heat and drought pose a major threat to forest ecosystems and are anticipated to increase due to anthropogenic climate change. One mechanism by which plants cope with stress

PMI↗

DOE OSTI2022

Gulf ribbed mussels increase plant growth, primary production, and soil nitrogen cycling potential in salt marshes

Smooth cordgrass Spartina alterniflora and Atlantic ribbed mussels Geukensia demissa have a mutualism whereby S. alterniflora provides substrate and shade for G. demissa while G. demissa enhances S. alterniflora growth and drought tolerance. Together, these species improve salt marsh stability and function. To better understand if a similar relationship exists between S. alterniflora and Gulf ribbed mussels G. granosissima in salt marshes of the Gulf of Mexico, we conducted a manipulative experiment with identical starting plant density and varying densities of G. granosissima and monitored plant and soil responses over a growing season. We found that S. alterniflora stem and leaf density was 1.5 and 1.9 times greater for the highest mussel biomass compared to the lowest mussel biomass treatments. Similarly, above- and below-ground biomass were 2.6 and 3.2 times greater for the highest mussel biomass compared to the lowest mussel biomass treatments. More and larger S. alterniflora at higher G. granosissima densities resulted in 2 and 4 times the S. alterniflora gross CO 2 uptake and respiration rate, respectively. Methane fluxes were highest when G. granosissima were present, likely driven by the positive relationship between methane flux and belowground biomass. Net potential nitrification was 5 times higher for the highest mussel biomass compared to the lowest mussel biomass treatments, and denitrification rates were 1.8 times higher. Ultimately, our results suggest that G. granosissima increases S. alterniflora growth and productivity, much like the positive relationship between G. demissa and S. alterniflora , which in turn influences salt marsh stability and function.

Environmental Sciences & Ecology↗

DOE OSTI2023

Mesoscale convective systems in the third pole region: Characteristics, mechanisms and impact on precipitation

The climate system of the Third Pole region, including the (TP) and its surroundings, is highly sensitive to global warming. Mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) are understood to be a vital component of this climate system. Driven by the monsoon circulation, surface heating, and large-scale and local moisture supply, they frequently occur during summer and mostly over the central and eastern TP as well as in the downstream regions. Further, MCSs have been highlighted as important contributors to total precipitation as they are efficient rain producers affecting water availability (seasonal precipitation) and potential flood risk (extreme precipitation) in the densely populated downstream regions. The availability of multi-decadal satellite observations and high-resolution climate model datasets has made it possible to study the role of MCSs in the under-observed TP water balance. However, the usage of different methods for MCS identification and the different focuses on specific subregions currently hamper a systematic and consistent assessment of the role played by MCSs and their impact on precipitation over the TP headwaters and its downstream regions. Here, we review observational and model studies of MCSs in the TP region within a common framework to elucidate their main characteristics, underlying mechanisms, and impact on seasonal and extreme precipitation. We also identify major knowledge gaps and provide suggestions on how these can be addressed using recently published high-resolution model datasets. Three important identified knowledge gaps are 1) the feedback of MCSs to other components of the TP climate system, 2) the impact of the changing climate on future MCS characteristics, and 3) the basin-scale assessment of flood and drought risks associated with changes in MCS frequency and intensity. A particularly promising tool to address these knowledge gaps are convection-permitting climate simulations. Therefore, the systematic evaluation of existing historical convection-permitting climate simulations over the TP is an urgent requirement for reliable future climate change assessments.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗