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At least 1,387 records · Page 77

Active operator learning with predictive uncertainty quantification for partial differential equations

With the increased prevalence of neural operators being used to provide rapid solutions to partial differential equations (PDEs), understanding the accuracy of model predictions and the associated error levels is necessary for deploying reliable surrogate models in scientific applications. Existing uncertainty quantification (UQ) frameworks employ ensembles or Bayesian methods, which can incur substantial computational costs during both training and inference. Here, we propose a lightweight predictive UQ method tailored for Deep operator networks (DeepONets) that also generalizes to other operator networks. Numerical experiments on linear and nonlinear PDEs demonstrate that the framework’s uncertainty estimates are unbiased and provide accurate out-of-distribution uncertainty predictions with a sufficiently large training dataset. Our framework provides fast inference and uncertainty estimates that can efficiently drive outer-loop analyses that would be prohibitively expensive with conventional solvers. We demonstrate how predictive uncertainties can be used in the context of Bayesian optimization and active learning problems to yield improvements in accuracy and data-efficiency for outer-loop optimization procedures. In the active learning setup, we extend the framework to Fourier Neural Operators (FNO) and describe a generalized method for other operator networks. To enable real-time deployment, we introduce an inference strategy based on precomputed trunk outputs and a sparse placement matrix, reducing evaluation time by more than a factor of five. Our method provides a practical route to uncertainty-aware operator learning in time-sensitive settings.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Power Systems Resilience

As communities take steps toward identifying and achieving their clean energy goals, the topic of resilience will likely emerge. This presentation aims to help inform and empower communities as they explore how their clean energy projects can address evolving power systems reliability and resilience due to climate change and other factors. The training provides a basic introduction to power systems and the resilience challenges this traditional infrastructure faces, as well as strategies for enhancing this important quality of electric service.

communities↗

Toward High Conversion Efficiency of Thermoelectric Modules through Synergistical Optimization of Layered Materials

Abstract Waste‐heat electricity generation using high‐efficiency solid‐state conversion technology can significantly decrease dependence on fossil fuels. Here, a synergistical optimization of layered half‐Heusler (hH) materials and module to improve thermoelectric conversion efficiency is reported. This is realized by manufacturing multiple thermoelectric materials with major compositional variations and temperature‐gradient‐coupled carrier distribution by one‐step spark plasma sintering. This strategy provides a solution to overcome the intrinsic concomitants of the conventional segmented architecture that only considers the matching of the figure of merit ( zT ) with the temperature gradient. The current design is dedicated to temperature‐gradient‐coupled resistivity and compatibility matching, optimum zT matching, and reducing contact resistance sources. By enhancing the quality factor of the materials by Sb‐vapor‐pressure‐induced annealing, a superior zT of 1.47 at 973 K is achieved for (Nb, Hf)FeSb hH alloys. Along with the low‐temperature high‐ zT hH alloys of (Nb, Ta, Ti, V)FeSb, the single stage layered hH modules are developed with efficiencies of ≈15.2% and ≈13.5% for the single‐leg and unicouple thermoelectric modules, respectively, under Δ T of 670 K. Therefore, this work has a transformative impact on the design and development of next‐generation thermoelectric generators for any thermoelectric material families.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Results from a controlled depleted uranium metal casting experiment designed to investigate nuclear Forensic Radiochronometry Signatures

The accurate interpretation of uranium metal 230 Th/ 234 U and 231 Pa/ 235 U radiochronometry model ages requires an understanding of how uranium parent nuclides and decay progeny ( 230 Th and 231 Pa) behave during uranium metal casting. In order to directly measure the spatial distribution of 230 Th and 231 Pa in uranium metal before and after vacuum induction melting (VIM), Los Alamos National Laboratory identified uranium metal feedstock, characterized the metal feedstock, conducted a controlled casting experiment of an approximately 120 kg uranium metal rod, and characterized the cast metal. Herein this study presents radiochronometry results and quantified 230 Th and 231 Pa VIM separation factors from bulk uranium.

38 RADIATION CHEMISTRY, RADIOCHEMISTRY, AND NUCLEA↗

Moments of nucleon unpolarized, polarized, and transversity parton distribution functions from lattice QCD at the physical point

The second Mellin moments ⟨ x ⟩ of the nucleon’s unpolarized, polarized, and transversity parton distribution functions are computed. Two lattice QCD ensembles at the physical pion mass are used: these were generated using a tree-level Symanzik-improved gauge action and 2 + 1 flavor tree-level improved Wilson Clover fermions coupling via 2-level HEX-smearing. The moments are extracted from forward matrix elements of local leading twist operators. We determine renomalization factors in RI-(S)MOM and match to MS ¯ at scale 2 GeV. Our findings show that operators that exhibit vanishing kinematics at zero momentum can have significantly reduced excited-state contamination. The resulting polarized moment is used to quantify the longitudinal contribution to the quark spin-orbit correlation. All our results agree within two sigma with previous lattice results. Published by the American Physical Society 2024

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Nonresonant central exclusive production of charged-hadron pairs in proton-proton collisions at s = 13 TeV

The central exclusive production of charged-hadron pairs in p p collisions at a center-of-mass energy of 13 TeV is examined, based on data collected in a special high- β * run of the LHC. The nonresonant continuum processes are studied with the invariant mass of the centrally produced two-pion system in the resonance-free region, m π + π − < 0.7 or m π + π − > 1.8 GeV . Differential cross sections as functions of the azimuthal angle between the surviving protons, squared exchanged four-momenta, and m π + π − are measured in a wide region of scattered proton transverse momenta, between 0.2 and 0.8 GeV, and for pion rapidities | y | < 2 . A rich structure of interactions related to double-pomeron exchange is observed. A parabolic minimum in the distribution of the two-proton azimuthal angle is observed for the first time. It can be interpreted as an effect of additional pomeron exchanges between the protons from the interference between the bare and the rescattered amplitudes. After model tuning, various physical quantities are determined that are related to the pomeron cross section, proton-pomeron and meson-pomeron form factors, pomeron trajectory and intercept, and coefficients of diffractive eigenstates of the proton. © 2024 CERN, for the CMS and TOTEMs Collaboration 2024 CERN

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Grid Voltage Control Analysis for Heavy-Duty Electric Vehicle Charging Stations

This paper presents an analysis of grid voltage control strategies for heavy-duty electric vehicle charging stations. The performance of three voltage control approaches—including power factor control, standardized volt-volt ampere reactive (VAR) curve control, and customized volt-VAR curve control—are investigated and evaluated for three different sizes of charging stations, including a single-port charging station, a midsized three-port charging station, and six-port travel center. The charging stations are placed on multiple locations of four different types of distribution systems to obtain a comprehensive performance analysis of the voltage control approaches under different scenarios. To quantitively compare the performance of the three voltage control approaches, a series of metrics are designed to quantify the performance and contribute to the comprehensive analysis.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

Characterizing the γ-Ray Emission from FR0 Radio Galaxies

Abstract FR0 galaxies constitute the most abundant jet population in the local Universe. With their compact jet structure, they are broadband photon emitters and have been proposed as multimessenger sources. Recently, these sources have been detected for the first time inγrays. Using a revised FR0 catalog, we confirm that the FR0 population as a whole areγ-ray emitters, and we also identify two significant sources. For the first time, we find a correlation between the 5 GHz core radio luminosity andγ-ray luminosity in the 1–800 GeV band, having a 4.8σstatistical significance. This is clear evidence that the jet emission mechanism is similar in nature for FR0s and the well-studied canonical FR (FRI and FRII) radio galaxies. Furthermore, we perform broadband spectral energy distribution modeling for the significantly detected sources as well as the subthreshold source population using a one-zone synchrotron self-Compton model. Within the maximum jet power budget, our modeling shows that the detectedγrays from the jet can be explained as inverse Compton photons. To explain the multiwavelength observations for these galaxies, the modeling results stipulate a low bulk Lorentz factor and a jet composition far from equipartition, with the particle energy density dominating over the magnetic field energy density.

Astronomy & Astrophysics↗

Interpreting machine learning prediction of fire emissions and comparison with FireMIP process-based models

Annual burned areas in the United States have increased 2-fold during the past decades. With more large fires resulting in more emissions of fine particulate matter, an accurate prediction of fire emissions is critical for quantifying the impacts of fires on air quality, human health, and climate. This study aims to construct a machine learning (ML) model with game-theory interpretation to predict monthly fire emissions over the contiguous US (CONUS) and to understand the controlling factors of fire emissions. The optimized ML model is used to diagnose the process-based models in the Fire Modeling Intercomparison Project (FireMIP) to inform future development. Results show promising performance for the ML model, Community Land Model (CLM), and Joint UK Land Environment Simulator-Interactive Fire And Emission Algorithm For Natural Environments (JULES-INFERNO) in reproducing the spatial distributions, seasonality, and interannual variability of fire emissions over the CONUS. Regional analysis shows that only the ML model and CLM simulate the realistic interannual variability of fire emissions for most of the subregions (r >0.95 for ML and r =0.14~0.70 for CLM), except for Mediterranean California, where all the models perform poorly (r =0.74 for ML and r <0.30 for the FireMIP models). Regarding seasonality, most models capture the peak emission in July over the western US. However, all models except for the ML model fail to reproduce the bimodal peaks in July and October over Mediterranean California, which may be explained by the smaller wind speeds of the atmospheric forcing data during Santa Ana wind events and limitations in model parameterizations for capturing the effects of Santa Ana winds on fire activity. Furthermore, most models struggle to capture the spring peak in emissions in the southeastern US, probably due to underrepresentation of human effects and the influences of winter dryness on fires in the models. As for extreme events, both the ML model and CLM successfully reproduce the frequency map of extreme emission occurrence but overestimate the number of months with extremely large fire emissions. Comparing the fire PM 2.5 emissions from the ML model with process-based fire models highlights their strengths and uncertainties for regional analysis and prediction and provides useful insights into future directions for model improvements.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Tritium Transport Phenomena in Molten-Salt Reactors

In this work, we review phenomena relevant to tritium transport in molten-salt reactors, which produce tritium from lithium and beryllium salts at significantly higher levels than other reactor types. Modeling of such phenomena began following MSRE operations, and these early models attempted to predict measured tritium distributions in the MSRE, accounting for turbulent mass-transport processes (using established heat transfer correlations), permeation through a variety of metal structures such as heat exchanger tubes, and transport to and from bubbles introduced into the salt by gas sparging. The models reasonably reproduced the MSRE data, but did so best when the permeability of structures was reduced by about a factor of 1,000. This issue does not appear to have been conclusively resolved, and all of the more recent attempts to model tritium transport in molten salts appear to make use of the same methodology. MSRE remains, however, essentially our only source of integral tritium transport data relevant to MSRs. Here, we generalize the MSRE approach to permeation in order to include potential rate-limiting effects at interfaces, as well the effects of added hydrogen. Appropriately non-dimensionalized, this system of equations identifies two dimensionless numbers whose relative values clearly delineate the conditions under which mass transport, surface effects, permeation, and hydrogen swamping are expected to become rate-limiting. We also describe the preliminary conceptual design of a forced convection FLiBe loop, into which tritium would be introduced for the purpose of providing validation data for such a model. The primary purpose of this is to investigate the coupled transport phenomena described above and identify those that are rate-limiting in MSRs. Additional test section configurations are described that would address other transport phenomena relevant to MSRs, including bubbly flows and graphite interactions.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Aperture size distribution, length, and preferential location of bed-parallel veins in shale

Bed-parallel, calcite-filled veins (BPVs) are common in shale formations, and although they have been widely described in other studies, little is known about their population aperture size distribution. To address this knowledge gap, we analyzed BPV sizes in outcrops and cores from the Vaca Muerta Formation, Neuquén Basin, Argentina; in two cores from the Marcellus Formation, Appalachian Basin, northeast Pennsylvania; and in one core from the Wolfcamp Shale, Delaware Basin, West Texas. Nine out of ten aperture size populations follow a negative exponential distribution, with one following a weak power law. Bed-parallel vein size distribution and intensity vary among formations and within the same shale. We define three groups of distributions: (1) Vaca Muerta outcrops, with the highest BPV intensity and the largest BPVs (cumulative frequency of 4.9 BPVs per meter [BPVs/m] for apertures 0.265 mm to 8.7 cm); (2) Vaca Muerta cores with a similar BPV intensity overall but with no apertures wider than 1.2 cm; and (3) Vaca Muerta, Wolfcamp, and Marcellus cores with the fewest BPVs (cumulative frequency up to 0.63 BPVs/m) and very few wider than 1 cm. Aperture and length in two outcrop data sets are weakly positively correlated and follow power laws with exponents of 0.44 and 0.49. Mechanical interfaces at boundaries between different lithologies exert a strong control on BPV location, with 65–75% of observed interfaces having BPVs along them. Only 25–30% of the BPVs occur at observed material interfaces, however, and unless subtle, unobserved mechanical layering is present, other factors must also control location. BPV intensity and organic richness (TOC) from Vaca Muerta well logs are correlated in some instances but not in others, indicating TOC is not always a good proxy for BPV location or intensity. Furthermore, these findings provide useful information for modeling of hydraulic fracture treatments where BPVs may influence development of the stimulated fracture network, for example by limiting height growth.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Z-boson production in p-Pb collisions at $ \sqrt{s_{\mathrm{NN}}} $ = 8.16 TeV and Pb-Pb collisions at $ \sqrt{s_{\mathrm{NN}}} $ = 5.02 TeV

Measurement of Z-boson production in p-Pb collisions at $ \sqrt{s_{\mathrm{NN}}} $ = 8 . 16 TeV and Pb-Pb collisions at $ \sqrt{s_{\mathrm{NN}}} $ = 5 . 02 TeV is reported. It is performed in the dimuon decay channel, through the detection of muons with pseudorapidity - 4 < η μ < - 2 . 5 and transverse momentum $ {p}_{\mathrm{T}}^{\mu } $ > 20 GeV/ c in the laboratory frame. The invariant yield and nuclear modification factor are measured for opposite-sign dimuons with invariant mass 60 < m μμ < 120 GeV/ c 2 and rapidity 2 . 5 < $ {y}_{\mathrm{cms}}^{\mu \mu} $ < 4. They are presented as a function of rapidity and, for the Pb-Pb collisions, of centrality as well. The results are compared with theoretical calculations, both with and without nuclear modifications to the Parton Distribution Functions (PDFs). In p-Pb collisions the center-of-mass frame is boosted with respect to the laboratory frame, and the measurements cover the backward ( - 4 . 46 < $ {y}_{\mathrm{cms}}^{\mu \mu} $ < - 2 . 96) and forward (2 . 03 < $ {y}_{\mathrm{cms}}^{\mu \mu} $ < 3 . 53) rapidity regions. For the p-Pb collisions, the results are consistent within experimental and theoretical uncertainties with calculations that include both free-nucleon and nuclear-modified PDFs. For the Pb-Pb collisions, a 3 . 4 σ deviation is seen in the integrated yield between the data and calculations based on the free-nucleon PDFs, while good agreement is found once nuclear modifications are considered.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Predicting biomass comminution: Physical experiment, population balance model, and deep learning

An extended population balance model (PBM) and a deep learning-based enhanced deep neural operator (DNO+) model are introduced for predicting particle size distribution (PSD) of comminuted biomass through a large knife mill. Experimental tests using corn stalks with varied moisture contents, mill blade speeds, and discharge screen sizes are conducted to support model development. A novel mechanism in the extended PBM allows for including additional input parameters such as moisture content, which is not possible in the original PBM. The DNO+ model can include influencing factors of different data types such as moisture content and discharge screen size, which significantly extends the engineering applicability of the standard DNO model that only admits feed PSD and outcome PSD. Test results show that both models are remarkably accurate in the calibration or training parameter space and can be used as surrogate models to provide effective guidance for biomass preprocessing design.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Advanced surrogate model for electron-scale turbulence in tokamak pedestals

We derive an advanced surrogate model for predicting turbulent transport at the edge of tokamaks driven by electron temperature gradient (ETG) modes. Our derivation is based on a recently developed sensitivity-driven sparse grid interpolation approach for uncertainty quantification and sensitivity analysis at scale, which informs the set of parameters that define the surrogate model as a scaling law. Our model reveals that ETG-driven electron heat flux is influenced by the safety factor q, electron beta β e and normalized electron Debye length λ D , in addition to well-established parameters such as the electron temperature and density gradients. To assess the trustworthiness of our model's predictions beyond training, we compute prediction intervals using bootstrapping. The surrogate model's predictive power is tested across a wide range of parameter values, including within-distribution testing parameters (to verify our model) as well as out-of-bounds and out-of-distribution testing (to validate the proposed model). Overall, validation efforts show that our model competes well with, or can even outperform, existing scaling laws in predicting ETG-driven transport.

fusion plasma↗

Interfacial Nanostructure and Hydrogen Bond Networks of Choline Chloride and Glycerol Mixtures Probed with X-ray and Vibrational Spectroscopies

The molecular distribution at the liquid-vapor interface and evolution of the hydrogen bond interactions in mixtures of glycerol and choline chloride are investigated using X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy (XPS) and Raman spectroscopy. Nanoscale depth profiles of supersaturated deep eutectic solvent (DES) mixtures up to ~2 nm measured by ambient-pressure XPS show the enhancement of choline cation (Ch + ) concentration by a factor of 2 at the liquid-vapor interface compared to the bulk. In addition, Raman spectral analysis of a wide range of DES mixtures reveals the conversion of gauche-conformer Ch + into the anti-conformer in relatively lower ChCl concentrations. Finally, the depletion of Ch + from the interface (probing depth = 0.4 nm) is demonstrated by aerosol-based velocity map imaging XPS measurements of glyceline and water mixtures. The nanostructure of liquid-vapor interfaces and structural rearrangement by hydration can provide critical insight into the molecular origin of the deep eutectic behavior and gas-capturing application of DESs.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Regional variability in the environmental controls of precipitation regimes in the tropics

The environmental factors that control precipitation regimes in Boreal winter rainfall in the tropics and their regional variabilities are examined using a simple statistical analysis and a machine learning model. Radar-derived precipitation from field campaigns at Darwin Australia, Manaus Brazil, and the Equatorial Indian Ocean, along with the corresponding large-scale environmental variables from ERA5 reanalysis, are used. The dependence of marginal distributions of frequencies of these regimes on five environmental variables are calculated. The variables are hourly column integrated precipitable water (PW), convective available potential energy (CAPE), convective inhibition (CIN), and lower and upper tropospheric wind shear. The simple machine learning model that predicts the probability of transition from suppressed to an active regime as a function of the environmental variables is designed and optimized for a potential application as a trigger function for convection parameterizations. To the first order the analysis shows an abrupt increase in the probability of an active regime near PW > 60 mm and CIN of <100 J kg -1 . The key differences in the frequencies of active regimes among the regions are found to be related to the fact that over Darwin there is strong variability in PW while CIN is generally low. Over Amazon, on the other hand, both PW and CIN are quite variable. Over the DYNAMO domain the comparatively frequent low PW is compensated for by consistently low CIN resulting in a moderate frequency of an active regime.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗