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At least 1,387 records · Page 77

Comparing the Effects of Side Chain Dipole–Dipole Interactions and Hydrogen Bonding on the Mechanical and Electrical Properties of Poly(3-hexylthiophene)

Poly(3-alkylthiophenes) are simple conjugated polymers with good electrical properties, but tend to be brittle, limiting their application. Here, we investigate how side chain modifications can improve their toughness without compromising their charge transport. Specifically, we compare a weak dipole–dipole interaction of ester groups with a stronger hydrogen-bonding interaction of the hydroxyl groups. Two copolymers with targeted 5 and 10 mol % ester-functionalized side chains were synthesized and hydrolyzed in the solid state to introduce hydroxyl groups. Both hydrolyzed polymers became insoluble in most organic solvents, providing a path to layer-by-layer solution processing. All polymers’ optical, thermal, structural, electrical, and mechanical properties were investigated. Optical spectroscopy revealed that functionalization at these low levels did not significantly affect aggregation or π–π stacking. Differential scanning calorimetry indicated reduced crystallinity in the functionalized copolymers compared to that of P3HT. Grazing-incidence wide-angle X-ray diffraction data showed that functionalization led to an increase in lamellar spacing without altering molecular orientation or π–π stacking. Mechanical testing highlighted that at the lower functionalization level, both ester and hydroxyl groups similarly enhanced toughness, suggesting that disorder, rather than the specific nature of the functional group, was responsible for these improvements. At the higher functionalization level, hydroxyl groups significantly increased the elastic modulus while also negatively impacting charge carrier mobility. This study suggests that with stronger hydrogen-bonding groups, only very small amounts can improve P3HT’s toughness. For a wider tunable range, it may be a better strategy to use weak interactions such as dipole–dipole interactions of ester groups.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

HAM: Hotspot-Aware Manager for Improving Communications with 3D-Stacked Memory

merging High-Performance Computing (HPC) workloads, such as graph analytics, machine learning, and big data science, are data-intensive. Data-intensive workloads usually present fine-grained memory accesses with limited or no data locality, and thus incur frequent cache misses and low utilization of memory bandwidth. 3D-stacked memory devices such as Hybrid Memory Cube (HMC) and High Bandwidth Memory (HBM) can provide significantly higher bandwidth than conventional memory modules. However, the traditional interfaces and optimization methods for JEDEC DDR devices do not allow to fully exploit the potential performance of 3D-stacked memory with the massive amount of irregular memory accesses of data-intensive applications. In this paper, we propose a novel Hotspot-Aware Manager (HAM) infrastructure for 3D-stacked memory devices capable of optimizing memory access streams via request aggregation, hotspot detection, and in-memory prefetching. %and an associated hotspot-aware page policy. We present the HAM design and implementation, and simulate it on a system using RISC-V embedded cores with attached HMC devices. We extensively evaluate HAM with over 12 benchmarks and applications representing diverse irregular memory access patterns. The results show that, on average, HAM reduces redundant requests by 37.51\% and increases the prefetch buffer hit rate by 4.2 times, compared to a baseline streaming prefetcher. On the selected benchmark set, HAM provides performance gains of 21.81\% in average (up to 34.28\%) and power savings of 35.07\% over a standard 3D-stacked memory.

Wang, Xi↗

Modeling of the structure of ribosomal protein L1 from the archaeon Haloarcula marismortui

The halophilic archaeon Haloarcula marismortui proliferates in the Dead Sea at extremely high salt concentrations (higher than 3 M). This is the only archaeon, for which the crystal structure of the ribosomal 50S subunit was determined. However, the structure of the functionally important side protuberance containing the abnormally negatively charged protein L1 (HmaL1) was not visualized. Attempts to crystallize HmaL1 in the isolated state or as its complex with RNA using normal salt concentrations (≤500 mM) failed. A theoretical model of HmaL1 was built based on the structural data for homologs of the protein L1 from other organisms, and this model was refined by molecular dynamics methods. Analysis of this model showed that the protein HmaL1 can undergo aggregation due to the presence of a cluster of positive charges unique for proteins L1. This cluster is located at the RNA–protein interface, which interferes with the crystallization of HmaL1 and the binding of the latter to RNA.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

Data Informed Vehicle Trip Energy Estimation [SWR-17-30]

There is a need to accurately estimate trip energy consumption for vehicle trips where high resolution GPS data is not available, or where the trips are simply proposed and have not been driven. This need is most apparent in green routing algorithms, it is critical to accurately estimate the energy consumption for a route that has not been driven. The Data Informed Energy Estimation Software addresses this need by identifying the driving and roadway attributes most impactful on fuel consumption, and using large amounts of high resolution GPS data from real world driving to determine the average fuel consumption for all combinations of attributes. These attributes can include traffic conditions, vehicle speed, and road gradient among others. This aggregation technique results in a lookup table that provides energy consumption values for combinations of road and driving techniques. This lookup table is an extremely lightweight and versatile result that can be applied in a number of applications.

Holden, Jacob↗

Integrated Simulation Development and Decision Support Tool-Set for Utility Market and Distributed Solar Power Generation

This project will enable utilities to develop long-term strategic plans that integrate high levels of renewable energy generation, and to better plan power system operations under high renewable penetration. The program developed forecast data streams for decision support and effective integration of centralized and distributed solar power generation in utility operations. This toolset focused on real time simulation of distributed power generation within utility grids with the emphasis on potential applications in day ahead (market) and real time (reliability) utility operations. The project team developed and demonstrated methodologies for quantifying the impact of distributed solar generation on core utility operations, identified protocols for internal data communication requirements, and worked with utility personnel to adapt the new distributed generation (DG) forecasts seamlessly within existing Load and Generation procedures through a sophisticated DMS. This project supported the objectives of the SunShot Initiative and SUNRISE by enabling core utility operations to enhance their simulation capability to analyze and prepare for the impacts of high penetrations of solar on the power grid. The impact of high penetration solar PV on utility operations is not only limited to control centers, but across many core operations. Benefits of an enhanced DMS using state-of-the-art solar forecast data were demonstrated within this project and have had an immediate direct operational cost savings for Energy Marketing for Day Ahead generation commitments, Real Time Operations, Load Forecasting (at an aggregate system level for Day Ahead), Demand Response, Long term Planning (asset management), Distribution Operations, and core ancillary services as required for balancing and reliability. This provided power system operators with the necessary tools and processes to operate the grid in a reliable manner under high renewable penetration.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Final Technical Report for Contract No. DE-EE0006332, "Integrated Simulation Development and Decision Support Tool-Set for Utility Market and Distributed Solar Power Generation"

This project will enable utilities to develop long-term strategic plans that integrate high levels of renewable energy generation, and to better plan power system operations under high renewable penetration. The program developed forecast data streams for decision support and effective integration of centralized and distributed solar power generation in utility operations. This toolset focused on real time simulation of distributed power generation within utility grids with the emphasis on potential applications in day ahead (market) and real time (reliability) utility operations. The project team developed and demonstrated methodologies for quantifying the impact of distributed solar generation on core utility operations, identified protocols for internal data communication requirements, and worked with utility personnel to adapt the new distributed generation (DG) forecasts seamlessly within existing Load and Generation procedures through a sophisticated DMS. This project supported the objectives of the SunShot Initiative and SUNRISE by enabling core utility operations to enhance their simulation capability to analyze and prepare for the impacts of high penetrations of solar on the power grid. The impact of high penetration solar PV on utility operations is not only limited to control centers, but across many core operations. Benefits of an enhanced DMS using state-of-the-art solar forecast data were demonstrated within this project and have had an immediate direct operational cost savings for Energy Marketing for Day Ahead generation commitments, Real Time Operations, Load Forecasting (at an aggregate system level for Day Ahead), Demand Response, Long term Planning (asset management), Distribution Operations, and core ancillary services as required for balancing and reliability. This provided power system operators with the necessary tools and processes to operate the grid in a reliable manner under high renewable penetration.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Incentivizing Cold-Climate Efficiency in Juneau (Final Report)

This is the final technical report for the DOE EERE BTO project Incentivizing Cold-Climate Efficiency in Juneau. The project implemented a community energy campaign to deploy heat pumps and efficiency for residents of Juneau, in Southeast Alaska. The project helped Juneau make progress towards its renewable energy goal of reaching 80% renewable energy for space heating by 2045. The Incentivizing Cold-Climate Efficiency in Juneau (ICE-Juneau) project began in 2020 and concluded three years later in 2023. During that time, a group of implementation partners and a research advisory team instituted a beneficial electrification campaign to promote energy savings and carbon reduction in residences of Juneau, Alaska. The campaign, Thermalize Juneau, focused on the installation of single head ductless mini-split heat pumps along with other efficiency upgrades. Thermalize Juneau was the first campaign of its kind in Alaska. After several months of planning, registration opened to the public in early 2021, and over the course of six months 164 participants enrolled. Campaign staff provided education to homeowners on heat pumps and efficiency, and each participant received a one-on-one heat pump assessment using a custom Microsoft Excel-based calculator that estimated energy savings for their residence based on building characteristics and past utility bills. Participants could also obtain a free energy audit from one of the two local energy auditors to further inform their decision. A heat pump installer, electrician, and builder were selected via a competitive RFP process. Participants who felt ready to install a heat pump or other efficiency upgrades received a site visit and custom quote from each of these contractors free of charge, and if they still felt energy upgrades were right for them, could move forward with an individual contract. Participants received a $400 heat pump installation rebate, offered by the installer if 40 heat pump installations occurred through the campaign. Overall, the campaign facilitated 75 heat pump installations (including participants that went with another contractor or heat pump model) and 30 efficiency upgrades (including participants that went with another builder or did DIY upgrades). The campaign created 3 new jobs as the heat pump installer hired an administrative assistant and two apprentices over the course of the campaign. It also helped Juneau work toward achieving its renewable energy goal of 80% renewable energy for space heating by 2045 by upgrading houses from fuel oil to heat pumps powered by the hydropower electric grid. Researchers conducted four surveys to inform Thermalize Juneau and future energy campaigns. The first surveyed existing and prospective heat pump owners in Juneau to identify barriers the campaign could address and inform recruitment efforts. Entry and exit surveys provided information on participant demographics, goals, outcomes, and suggestions for improving future campaigns. And a final survey of community members who had not participated in Thermalize Juneau gave insight on ways future campaigns could include a greater diversity of participants so they could realize similar benefits. Researchers also used pre-campaign energy modeling to predict energy savings, which was then compared to the savings estimated through aggregation of heat pump assessments and energy audits, and later to actual energy savings of 10 participants who installed a heat pump and were able to provide complete energy use data sets. In addition to energy savings, and to assist the electric utility in future planning efforts, researchers analyzed the overall change in electric use across participants with energy data and heat pump installations. They also completed a life cycle cost analysis, showing positive net present values for those displacing a fuel oil appliance, and a more mixed case for those switching from electric baseboard. This project proved the feasibility of energy campaigns, with a goal of beneficial electrification, in cold, remote locations. The Thermalize Juneau team compiled a Guidebook to Thermalize Campaigns, available online. In addition to documenting what occurred in Alaska’s first thermalize campaign, it provides tips and resources for other communities wishing to implement a similar program.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Nontargeted vs. Targeted vs. Smart Load Shifting Using Heat Pump Water Heaters

Deployment of CTA-2045–enabled devices is increasing in the U.S. market. These devices allow utilities or third-party aggregators to control appliance energy use in homes, and could also be applied to end uses in small commercial buildings. This study focuses on a field study using CTA-2045–enabled water heaters to shift electric load off the peak and toward periods when renewable resources are more prevalent (e.g., near noon for solar resources and near midnight for wind resources). The following load shifting strategies were compared to understand effects on the aggregate load-shifting capabilities of Heat Pump Water Heaters (HPWHs) and on consumer hot water supply: non-targeted (traditional), targeted (grouped, with different shifting schedules) and “smart” (adaptive control commands). The results of this study show that targeted and smart control strategies yield significantly more load-shifting potential from a population of water heaters than the non-targeted approach without sacrificing hot water supply to occupants. However, as control commands become more aggressive, aggregators may face challenges in meeting consumer hot water demand. Furthermore, the findings and lessons learned can benefit electric utilities and inform updates to manufacturer controls and communications standards. The data collected may also be useful for developing and validating HPWH models.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Simulation of landsat thematic mapper imagery using AVIRIS hyperspectral imagery

In this paper we present a methodology for simulating multispectral imagery (MSI) using hyperspectral imagery (HSI), and present a validation of the technique using one nearly coincident Landsat TM and AVIRIS data set. Generation of MSI from HSI supports several investigations including selection of multispectral sensor band edges, and engineering trade studies related to on-board or ground-based aggregation of HSI to simulate MSI. In addition, the utility of this technique as a potential procedure for monitoring calibration changes in spaceborne instrument is also addressed.

Kalman, Linda S.↗

The Use of GIS and Remotely Sensed Data in Environmental Public Health Tracking (EPHT): The HELIX-Atlanta Experience

As part of the National Environmental Public Health Tracking Network (EPHTN), the National Center for Environmental Health (NCEH) at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) is leading a project in collaboration with the NASA Marshall Space Flight Center (NASA/MSFC) called Health and Environment Linked for Information Exchange (HELIX-Atlanta). HELIX-Atlanta's goal is to examine the feasibility of building an integrated electronic health and environmental data network in five counties of metropolitan Atlanta, GA. Under HELIX-Atlanta, pilot projects are being conducted to develop methods to characterize exposure; link health and environmental data; analyze the relationship between health and environmental factors; and communicate findings. There is evidence in the research literature that asthmatic persons are at increased risk of developing asthma exacerbations with exposure to environmental factors, including PM(sub 2.5). Thus, HELIX-Atlanta is focusing on methods for characterizing population exposure to PM(sub 2.5) for the Atlanta metropolitan area that could be used in ongoing surveillance. NASA/MSFC is working with CDC to combine NASA earth science satellite observations related to air quality and environmental monitoring data to model surface estimates of fine particulate matter (PM(sub 2.5)) concentrations in a Geographic Information System (GIS) that can be linked with clinic visits for asthma on the aggregated grid level as well as the individual level at the geographic locations of the patients' residences.

Al-Hamdan, Mohammad Z.↗

Anatomy of a Security Operations Center

Many agencies and corporations are either contemplating or in the process of building a cyber Security Operations Center (SOC). Those Agencies that have established SOCs are most likely working on major revisions or enhancements to existing capabilities. As principle developers of the NASA SOC; this Presenters' goals are to provide the GFIRST community with examples of some of the key building blocks of an Agency scale cyber Security Operations Center. This presentation viII include the inputs and outputs, the facilities or shell, as well as the internal components and the processes necessary to maintain the SOC's subsistence - in other words, the anatomy of a SOC. Details to be presented include the SOC architecture and its key components: Tier 1 Call Center, data entry, and incident triage; Tier 2 monitoring, incident handling and tracking; Tier 3 computer forensics, malware analysis, and reverse engineering; Incident Management System; Threat Management System; SOC Portal; Log Aggregation and Security Incident Management (SIM) systems; flow monitoring; IDS; etc. Specific processes and methodologies discussed include Incident States and associated Work Elements; the Incident Management Workflow Process; Cyber Threat Risk Assessment methodology; and Incident Taxonomy. The Evolution of the Cyber Security Operations Center viII be discussed; starting from reactive, to proactive, and finally to proactive. Finally, the resources necessary to establish an Agency scale SOC as well as the lessons learned in the process of standing up a SOC viII be presented.

Wang, John↗

Single-pass parallel prefix scan with dynamic look back

One embodiment of the present invention performs a parallel prefix scan in a single pass that incorporates variable look-back. A parallel processing unit (PPU) subdivides a list of inputs into sequentially-ordered segments and assigns each segment to a streaming multiprocessor (SM) included in the PPU. Notably, the SMs may operate in parallel. Each SM executes write operations on a segment descriptor that includes the status, aggregate, and inclusive-prefix associated with the assigned segment. Further, each SM may execute read operations on segment descriptors associated with other segments. In operation, each SM may perform reduction operations to determine a segment-wide aggregate, may perform look-back operations across multiple preceding segments to determine an exclusive-prefix, and may perform a scan seeded with the exclusive prefix to generate output data. Advantageously, the PPU performs one read operation per input, thereby reducing the time required to execute the prefix scan relative to prior-art parallel implementations.

Merrill, Duane↗

Neutronic Consideration of TREAT Facility Fuel SiC Recladding

The Transient Reactor Test (TREAT) Facility is an air-cooled reactor composed of graphite-urania fuel encapsulated in zirconium alloy canisters and surrounded by ~2 ft (~61 cm) of nuclear grade graphite. The primary role of TREAT is to provide in-pile nuclear-heated safety research via transient testing [1]. Benchmark efforts have demonstrated sensitivity of TREAT neutronics models to graphite cross section data and key neutron poisons found in the fuel assemblies [2]. During fabrication of TREAT fuel assemblies, a small concentration of boron was inadvertently introduced with variable concentration into the aggregate of fuel blocks prepared for TREAT use. The concentration of boron, and its respective uncertainty, represent the most sensitive component in a neutronics study; unfortunately, nothing can be done to reduce or otherwise mitigate its impact. Hydrogen in the fuel blocks reduces the mean free path of the core and its true quantity and uncertainty is approximated. The hydrogen remains from pitch binder used in the fuel fabrication process and was not completely released due to incomplete fuel graphitization. Destructive fuel testing is necessary to quantify the actual hydrogen content and to improve benchmark model quality. A third neutron poison of some significance is the hafnium impurity in the Zircaloy-3 (Zry-3) assembly cladding. The quantity of hafnium is expected to be within nominal manufacturing limits for nuclear grade zircaloy. Recladding the fuel assemblies with material that is less neutron absorbing is expected to benefit reactor neutron economy. Moreover, TREAT’s total transient energy is restricted based on the rate of Zry-3 oxidation in TREAT’s air coolant environment. Hence, cladding with more benign air reaction kinetics could dramatically uprate the facility’s experimental capability. Silicon carbide (SiC) has been proposed as a candidate material for recladding TREAT assemblies, as SiC/SiC demonstrate favorable properties within nuclear environments [3]. The current operational limits of TREAT are restricted by the oxidation of Zry-3. Change of the cladding to SiC could feasibly double the current temperature limitation. Recladding opportunities allow for previously damaged fuel assemblies to be returned to service, as Zry-3 is not commercially available. The initial effort required to consider proceeding with any recladding effort is to neutronically characterize key reactor parameters while replacing Zry-3 with SiC. A characterization summary, with respective results, is provided herein.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

It's the Heat AND the Humidity -- Assessment of Extreme Heat Scenarios to Enable the Assessment of Climate Impacts on Public Health

In the United States, extreme heat is the most deadly weather-related hazard. In the face of a warming climate and urbanization, which contributes to local-scale urban heat islands, it is very likely that extreme heat events (EHEs) will become more common and more severe in the U.S. In a NASA-funded project supporting the National Climate Assessment, we are providing historical and future measures of extreme heat to enable assessments of the impacts of heat on public health over the coterminous U.S. We use atmospheric temperature and humidity information from meteorological reanalysis and from Global Climate Models (GCMs) to provide data on past and future heat events. The project s emphasis is on providing assessments of the magnitude, frequency and geographic distribution of extreme heat in the U.S. to facilitate public health studies. In our approach, long-term climate change is captured with GCM output, and the temporal and spatial characteristics of short-term extremes are represented by the reanalysis data. Two future time horizons, 2040 and 2090, are the focus of future assessments; these are compared to the recent past period of 1981-2000. We are characterizing regional-scale temperature and humidity conditions using GCM output for two climate change scenarios (A2 and A1B) defined in the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES). For each future period, 20 years of multi-model GCM output have been analyzed to develop a heat stress climatology based on statistics of extreme heat indicators. Differences between the two future and past periods have been used to define temperature and humidity changes on a monthly time scale and regional spatial scale. These changes, combined with hourly historical meteorological data at a spatial scale (12 km) much finer than that of GCMs, enable us to create future climate realizations, from which we compute the daily heat stress measures and related spatially-specific climatological fields. These include the mean annual number of days above certain thresholds of maximum and minimum air temperatures, heat indices and a new heat stress variable that gives an integrated measure of heat stress (and relief) over the course of a day. Comparisons are made between projected (2040 and 2090) and past (1990) heat stress statistics. All output is being provided at the 12 km spatial scale and will also be aggregated to the county level, which is a popular scale of analysis for public health researchers. County-level statistics will be made available by our collaborators at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) via the Wide-ranging Online Data for Epidemiologic Research (WONDER) system. CDC WONDER makes the information resources of the CDC available to public health professionals and the general public. This addition of heat stress measures to CDC WONDER will allow decision and policy makers to assess the impact of alternative approaches to optimize the public health response to EHEs. It will also allow public health researchers and policy makers to better include such heat stress measures in the context of national health data available in the CDC WONDER system. The users will be able to spatially and temporally query public health and heat-related data sets and create county-level maps and statistical charts of such data across the coterminous U.S.

Crosson, William L↗

Generating Global Leaf Area Index from Landsat: Algorithm Formulation and Demonstration

This paper summarizes the implementation of a physically based algorithm for the retrieval of vegetation green Leaf Area Index (LAI) from Landsat surface reflectance data. The algorithm is based on the canopy spectral invariants theory and provides a computationally efficient way of parameterizing the Bidirectional Reflectance Factor (BRF) as a function of spatial resolution and wavelength. LAI retrievals from the application of this algorithm to aggregated Landsat surface reflectances are consistent with those of MODIS for homogeneous sites represented by different herbaceous and forest cover types. Example results illustrating the physics and performance of the algorithm suggest three key factors that influence the LAI retrieval process: 1) the atmospheric correction procedures to estimate surface reflectances; 2) the proximity of Landsatobserved surface reflectance and corresponding reflectances as characterized by the model simulation; and 3) the quality of the input land cover type in accurately delineating pure vegetated components as opposed to mixed pixels. Accounting for these factors, a pilot implementation of the LAI retrieval algorithm was demonstrated for the state of California utilizing the Global Land Survey (GLS) 2005 Landsat data archive. In a separate exercise, the performance of the LAI algorithm over California was evaluated by using the short-wave infrared band in addition to the red and near-infrared bands. Results show that the algorithm, while ingesting the short-wave infrared band, has the ability to delineate open canopies with understory effects and may provide useful information compared to a more traditional two-band retrieval. Future research will involve implementation of this algorithm at continental scales and a validation exercise will be performed in evaluating the accuracy of the 30-m LAI products at several field sites. ©

Landsat↗

Alerga: Alert Aggregation and Reasoning in GOOSE Simulation Pipeline

IEC 61850 specifies the Generic Object Oriented Substation Event (GOOSE) protocol as one option for low latency communication of substation-related events. Due to its strict timing requirements, GOOSE lacks any form of encryption or authentication and has only minimal integrity guarantees. These absences render the protocol vulnerable to a variety of communication anomalies, including adversarial action. In particular, an adversary with access to the substation network can launch man in the middle (MITM) attacks. We propose Alerga, a set of tools to allow operators to mitigate some of the risks of the protocol while retaining its strengths. To that end, we have developed first a GOOSE simulation pipeline including data generation, anomaly detection, alert handling, causal reasoning and data visualization components. The simulator is designed to be modular, allowing operators to swap components to better fit their network capabilities. The volume of alert traffic on a substation network threatens operators with alert fatigue. In order to combat this, we secondly present a novel form of alert aggregation and processing, offering operators a condensed view of any threats to the system. Thirdly, to facilitate the handling of these threats, our causal reasoning system traces the alerts back to their most likely cause, generating an initial hypothesis for operators to investigate.

alert aggregation↗

Monitoring Regional Forest Disturbances across the US with near Real Time MODIS NDVI Products Resident to the ForWarn Forest Threat Early Warning System

Forest threats across the US have become increasingly evident in recent years. Sometimes these have resulted in regionally evident disturbance progressions (e.g., from drought, bark beetle outbreaks, and wildfires) that can occur across multiyear durations and have resulted in extensive forest overstory mortality. In addition to stand replacement disturbances, other forests are subject to ephemeral, sometimes yearly defoliation from various insects and varying types and intensities of ephemeral damage from storms. Sometimes, after prolonged severe disturbance, signs of recovery in terms of Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) can occur. The growing prominence and threat of forest disturbances in part have led to the formation and implementation of the 2003 Healthy Forest Restoration Act which mandated that national forest threat early warning system be developed and deployed. In response, the US Forest Service collaborated with NASA, DOE Oakridge National Laboratory, and the USGS Eros Data Center to build and roll-out the near real time ForWarn early warning system for monitoring regionally evident forest disturbances. Given the diversity of disturbance types, severities, and durations, ForWarn employs multiple historical baselines that are used with current NDVI to derive a suite of six forest change products that are refreshed every 8 days. ForWarn employs daily quarter kilometer MODIS NDVI data from the Aqua and Terra satellites, including MOD13 data for deriving historical baseline NDVIs and eMODIS 7 NDVI for compiling current NDVI. In doing so, the Time Series Product Tool and the Phenological Parameters Estimation Tool are used to temporally de-noise, fuse, and aggregate current and historical MODIS NDVIs into 24 day composites refreshed every 8 days with 46 dates of products per year. The 24 day compositing interval enables disturbances to be detected, while minimizing the frequency of residual atmospheric contamination. Forest change products are computed versus the previous 1, previous 3, and all previous years in the MODIS record for a given 24 day interval. Other "weekly" forest change products include one computed using an adaptive length compositing method for quicker detection of disturbances, two others that adjust for seasonal fluctuations in normal vegetation phenology (e.g., early versus late springs). This overall approach enables forest disturbance dynamics from a variety of regionally evident biotic and abiotic forest disturbances to be viewed and assessed through the calendar year. The change products are also being utilized for forest change trend analysis and for developing regional forest overstory mortality products. ForWarn's forest change products are used to alert forest health specialists about new forest disturbances. Such alerts are also typically based on available Landsat, aerial, and ground data as well as communications with forest health specialists and previous experience. ForWarn products have been used to detect and track many types of regional disturbances to multiple forest types, including defoliation from caterpillars and severe storms, as well as mortality from both biotic and abiotic agents (e.g., bark beetles, drought, fire, anthropogenic clearing). ForWarn offers products that could be combined with other geospatial data on forest biomass to assess forest disturbance carbon impacts within the conterminous US.

Spruce, Joseph P.↗

Improving Grid Awareness by Empowering Utilities with Machine Learning and Artificial Intelligence

Gap filling time series data typically depends on linear interpolation. More recently gap filling advancements include machine learning techniques. However, none leverage advanced learning approach that uses cohort training or a neighborhood informed approach, which is described in this report. The report also describes a physics informed approach using Reduced Order Models (ROM). There are several methods to capture the nature of the detailed system in aggregated models, however there is a trade-off for these methods developed for multiple applications. These methods have specific requirements and applications that includes consideration of dynamics or covering a larger range of operating conditions, etc. The various methods of aggregation are: 1) Thevenin equivalents for downstream networks 2) Equivalent feeder representation to capture downstream network losses accurately 3) Structured reduced order models for dynamics 4) System identification-based ROM (abstract dynamical model) Methods described in items 1 and 2 above are ideal for steady-state models and useful for this application. Of these two methods, based on the data availability, the targeted application, the reduced order model that is proposed to be developed is the equivalent feeder model representation. This includes a structure of the reduced order model whose parameters can be determined by the system load and losses with the meter measurements.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗