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At least 1,387 records · Page 77

An Investigation into the Approximations Used in Wave Packet Molecular Dynamics for the Study of Warm Dense Matter

Wave packet molecular dynamics (WPMD) has recently received a lot of attention as a computationally fast tool with which to study dynamical processes in warm dense matter beyond the Born–Oppenheimer approximation. These techniques, typically, employ many approximations to achieve computational efficiency while implementing semi-empirical scaling parameters to retain accuracy. We investigated three of the main approximations ubiquitous to WPMD: a restricted basis set, approximations to exchange, and the lack of correlation. We examined each of these approximations in regard to atomic and molecular hydrogen in addition to a dense hydrogen plasma. We found that the biggest improvement to WPMD comes from combining a two-Gaussian basis with a semi-empirical correction based on the valence-bond wave function. A single parameter scales this correction to match experimental pressures of dense hydrogen. Ultimately, we found that semi-empirical scaling parameters are necessary to correct for the main approximations in WPMD. However, reducing the scaling parameters for more ab-initio terms gives more accurate results and displays the underlying physics more readily.

Angermeier, William A. (ORCID:0000000177161564)↗

Intercomparison of Planetary Boundary Layer Heights Using Remote Sensing Retrievals and ERA5 Reanalysis over Central Amazonia

The atmospheric boundary layer height (zi) is a key parameter in the vertical transport of mass, energy, moisture, and chemical species between the surface and the free atmosphere. There is a lack of long-term and continuous observations of zi, however, particularly for remote regions, such as the Amazon forest. Reanalysis products, such as ERA5, can fill this gap by providing temporally and spatially resolved information on zi. In this work, we evaluate the ERA5 estimates of zi (zi-ERA5) for two locations in the Amazon and corrected them by means of ceilometer, radiosondes, and SODAR measurements (zi-experimental). The experimental data were obtained at the remote Amazon Tall Tower Observatory (ATTO) with its pristine tropical forest cover and the T3 site downwind of the city of Manaus with a mixture of forest (63%), pasture (17%), and rivers (20%). We focus on the rather typical year 2014 and the El Niño year 2015. The comparison of the experimental vs. ERA5 zi data yielded the following results: (i) zi-ERA5 underestimates zi-experimental daytime at the T3 site for both years 2014 (30%, underestimate) and 2015 (15%, underestimate); (ii) zi-ERA5 overestimates zi-experimental daytime at ATTO site (12%, overestimate); (iii) during nighttime, no significant correlation between the zi-experimental and zi-ERA5 was observed. Based on these findings, we propose a correction for the daytime zi-ERA5, for both sites and for both years, which yields a better agreement between experimental and ERA5 data. These results and corrections are relevant for studies at ATTO and the T3 site and can likely also be applied at further locations in the Amazon.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Assessing Heterogeneity of Surface Water Temperature Following Stream Restoration and a High-Intensity Fire from Thermal Imagery

Thermal heterogeneity of rivers is essential to support freshwater biodiversity. Salmon behaviorally thermoregulate by moving from patches of warm water to cold water. When implementing river restoration projects, it is essential to monitor changes in temperature and thermal heterogeneity through time to assess the impacts to a river’s thermal regime. Lightweight sensors that record both thermal infrared (TIR) and multispectral data carried via unoccupied aircraft systems (UASs) present an opportunity to monitor temperature variations at high spatial (<0.5 m) and temporal resolution, facilitating the detection of the small patches of varying temperatures salmon require. Here, we present methods to classify and filter visible wetted area, including a novel procedure to measure canopy cover, and extract and correct radiant surface water temperature to evaluate changes in the variability of stream temperature pre- and post-restoration followed by a high-intensity fire in a section of the river corridor of the South Fork McKenzie River, Oregon. We used a simple linear model to correct the TIR data by imaging a water bath where the temperature increased from 9.5 to 33.4 °C. The resulting model reduced the mean absolute error from 1.62 to 0.35 °C. We applied this correction to TIR-measured temperatures of wetted cells classified using NDWI imagery acquired in the field. We found warmer conditions (+2.6 °C) after restoration (p < 0.001) and median absolute deviation for pre-restoration (0.30) to be less than both that of post-restoration (0.85) and post-fire (0.79) orthomosaics. In addition, there was statistically significant evidence to support the hypothesis of shifts in temperature distributions pre- and post-restoration (KS test 2009 vs. 2019, p < 0.001, D = 0.99; KS test 2019 vs. 2021, p < 0.001, D = 0.10). Moreover, we used a Generalized Additive Model (GAM) that included spatial and environmental predictors (i.e., canopy cover calculated from multispectral NDVI and photogrammetrically derived digital elevation model) to model TIR temperature from a transect along the main river channel. This model explained 89% of the deviance, and the predictor variables showed statistical significance. Collectively, our study underscored the potential of a multispectral/TIR sensor to assess thermal heterogeneity in large and complex river systems.

Barker, Matthew I. (ORCID:0000000252864930)↗

Beta Equilibrium under Neutron Star Merger Conditions

We calculate the nonzero-temperature correction to the beta equilibrium condition in nuclear matter under neutron star merger conditions, in the temperature range 1mEv < T ≲ 5 mEv. We improve on previous work using a consistent description of nuclear matter based on the IUF and SFHo relativistic mean field models. This includes using relativistic dispersion relations for the nucleons, which we show is essential in these models. We find that the nonzero-temperature correction can be of order 10 to 20 MeV, and plays an important role in the correct calculation of Urca rates, which can be wrong by factors of 10 or more if it is neglected.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Are Type Ia Supernovae in Rest-frame H Brighter in More Massive Galaxies?

We analyze 143 Type Ia supernovae (SNe Ia) observed in H band (1.6–1.8 μm) and find that SNe Ia are intrinsically brighter in H band with increasing host galaxy stellar mass. We find that SNe Ia in galaxies more massive than 10 10.43 M ⊙ are 0.13 ± 0.04 mag brighter in H than SNe Ia in less massive galaxies. The same set of SNe Ia observed at optical wavelengths, after width–color–luminosity corrections, exhibit a 0.10 ± 0.03 mag offset in the Hubble residuals. We observe an outlier population (|ΔH max | > 0.5 mag) in the H band and show that removing the outlier population moves the mass threshold to 10 10.65 M ⊙ and reduces the step in H band to 0.08 ± 0.04 mag, but the equivalent optical mass step is increased to 0.13 ± 0.04 mag. We conclude that the outliers do not drive the brightness–host-mass correlation. Less massive galaxies preferentially host more higher-stretch SNe Ia, which are intrinsically brighter and bluer. It is only after correction for width–luminosity and color–luminosity relationships that SNe Ia have brighter optical Hubble residuals in more massive galaxies. Thus, finding that SNe Ia are intrinsically brighter in H in more massive galaxies is an opposite correlation to the intrinsic (pre-width–luminosity correction) optical brightness. If dust and the treatment of intrinsic color variation were the main driver of the host galaxy mass correlation, we would not expect a correlation of brighter H-band SNe Ia in more massive galaxies.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

The Quest for New Correlations in the Realm of the Gamma-Ray Burst—Supernova Connection

Gamma-ray bursts (GRBs) are very energetic cosmological transients. Long GRBs are usually associated with Type Ib/c supernovae (SNe), and we refer to them as GRB-SNe. Since the associated SN for a given GRB is observed only at low redshift, a possible selection effect exists when we consider intrinsically faint sources that cannot be observed at high redshift. Thus, it is important to explore the possible relationships between GRB and SN parameters after these have been corrected for astrophysical biases due to the instrumental selection effects and redshift evolution of the variables involved. So far, only GRB prompt emission properties have been checked against the SN Ib/c properties without considering the afterglow (AG). This work investigates the existence of relationships among GRBs’ prompt and AG and associated SN properties. We investigate 91 bidimensional correlations among the SN and GRB observables before and after their correction for selection biases and evolutionary effects. As a result of this investigation, we find hints of a new correlation with a Pearson correlation coefficient >0.50 and a probability of being drawn by chance <0.05. This correlation is between the luminosity at the end of the GRB optical plateau emission and the rest-frame peak time of the SN. According to this relation, the brightest optical plateaus are accompanied by the largest peak times. This correlation is corrected for selection biases and redshift evolution and may provide new constraints for the astrophysical models associated with the GRB-SN connection.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Developing A Custom-Built Metal Aerosol Processing Chamber: Analysis of Aerosol Coagulation at Low Humidities

We have developed an intermediate size (906 L) aerosol processing chamber, and this work reports on the design and initial characterization of dry aerosol experiments. Specifically, we are determining wall-loss and coagulation correction factors using the observed size distribution measurements for surrogates of common aerosol classes: sodium chloride, sucrose, and biomass burning aerosol smoke. Results show that, on average, sodium chloride, sucrose, and smoke wall-loss rates converge to similar values on relatively short time scales (< 1 h). The fitted coagulation correction factor, W C -1 , for smoke particles (1.23 ± 0.312), indicates that on average they adhere to each other more than sodium chloride (0.969 ± 0.524) and sucrose (1.16 ± 1.38). The relative uncertainty is high for the coagulation correction, but it is consistent with our Monte Carlo error analysis. This study lays the foundation for future experiments at elevated humidity and supersaturation conditions to characterize the influence of particle shape on coagulation and cloud parameters.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Further improvement and evaluation of nudging in the E3SM Atmosphere Model version 1 (EAMv1): simulations of the mean climate, weather events, and anthropogenic aerosol effects

Abstract. A previous study on the use of nudging in E3SM Atmosphere Model version 1 (EAMv1) had an unresolved issue; i.e., a simulation nudged to EAMv1's own meteorology showed non-negligible deviations from the free-running baseline simulation over some of the subtropical marine stratocumulus and trade cumulus regions. Here, we demonstrate that the deviations can be substantially reduced by (1) changing where the nudging tendency is calculated in the time integration loop of a nudged EAM simulation so as to improve consistency with the free-running baseline and (2) increasing the frequency of the constraining data so as to better capture strong sub-diurnal variations. The fact that modification (2) improves the climate representativeness of the nudged simulations has motivated us to investigate whether the use of newer reanalysis products with higher data frequency can help improve nudged hindcast simulations by better capturing the observed weather events. To answer this question, we present simulations conducted at EAMv1's standard horizontal resolution (approximately 1∘) with nudging towards 6-hourly ERA-Interim reanalysis or 6-hourly, 3-hourly, or hourly ERA5 reanalysis. These simulations are evaluated against the climatology of free-running EAMv1 simulations as well as reanalyses, satellite retrievals, and in situ measurements from the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement user facility. For the 1∘ EAMv1 simulations, we recommend using the relocated nudging tendency calculation and the ERA5 reanalysis at 3-hourly or higher frequency. Simulations used for estimating the anthropogenic aerosol effects often use nudging to help discern signal from noise. The sensitivity of such estimates to the configuration of nudging is investigated in EAMv1, again using the standard 1∘ horizontal resolution. We find that, when estimating the global mean effects, the frequency of constraining data has relatively small impacts, while the choice of nudged variables can change the results substantially. The nudging of air temperature (in addition to horizontal winds) has two non-negligible effects. First, when the constraining data come from reanalysis, the nudging-induced mean bias correction can cause significant changes in the simulated clouds and hence substantially different estimates of the aerosol effects. The impact of the mean bias correction on ice cloud formation has been noted in previous studies and is also seen in EAMv1. For applications like ours, where the preferred configurations of nudging are those capable of providing results consistent with the multi-year free-running simulations, the consequence of the mean bias correction is undesirable. The second important impact of temperature nudging is a significant suppression of adjustments to aerosol forcing, which also causes changes in the estimated aerosol effects. This effect can be seen in simulations nudged to either reanalysis or EAM's own meteorology. These results suggest that nudging horizontal winds but not temperature is a better choice for estimating the anthropogenic aerosol effects.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Operational-based annual energy production uncertainty: are its components actually uncorrelated?

Calculations of annual energy production (AEP) from a wind power plant – whether based on preconstruction or operational data – are critical for wind plant financial transactions. The uncertainty in the AEP calculation is especially important in quantifying risk and is a key factor in determining financing terms. A popular industry practice is to assume that different uncertainty components within an AEP calculation are uncorrelated and can therefore be combined as the sum of their squares. We assess the practical validity of this assumption for operational-based uncertainty by performing operational AEP estimates for more than 470 wind plants in the United States, mostly in simple terrain. We apply a Monte Carlo approach to quantify uncertainty in five categories: revenue meter data, wind speed data, regression relationship between density-corrected wind speed (from reanalysis data) and measured wind power, length of long-term-correction data set, and future interannual variability. We identify correlations between categories by comparing the results across all 470 wind plants. We observe a positive correlation between interannual variability and the linearized long-term correction; a negative correlation between wind resource interannual variability and linear regression; and a positive correlation between reference wind speed uncertainty and linear regression. Then, we contrast total operational AEP uncertainty values calculated by omitting and considering correlations between the uncertainty components. We quantify that ignoring these correlations leads to an underestimation of total AEP uncertainty of, on average, 0.1% and as large as 0.5% for specific sites. Although these are not large increases, these would still impact wind plant financing rates; further, we expect these values to increase for wind plants in complex terrain. Based on these results, we conclude that correlations between the identified uncertainty components should be considered when computing the total AEP uncertainty.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Multispectral and thermal surface imagery and surface elevation mosaics (camspec-air)

This dataset contains high resolution image products (orthomosaics) acquired from midsized uncrewed aerial systems, which have been processed for value added quality. The instrument itself, a multispectral imager, the Altum by Micasense, captures 6 spectral bands (red, green blue, NIR, red edge, and LWIR/thermal1) as radiance, which is converted to reflectance. The code used to develop these images first uses tools from the Micasense python library2 to apply dark level corrections, row gradient corrections, and radiometric corrections. Next it uses the processing API from Agisoft Metashape software to align and mosaic the processed imagery, following the processes developed by the USGS' structure from motion workflow documentation3. Captures at different altitudes (recorded in MSL) produce an orthomosaic, a tif image containing information related to the 6 spectral bands, and a digital elevation model (DEM), a tif image containing information related to the elevation of the surveyed terraine. Metadata included in every image can be used to extract lat, lon, and reflectance values. 1https://www.arm.gov/publications/tech_reports/handbooks/doe-sc-arm-tr-281.pdf 2https://micasense.github.io/imageprocessing/MicaSense%20Image%20Processing%20Setup.html 3https://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2021/1039/ofr20211039.pdf

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Multispectral and thermal surface imagery and surface elevation mosaics - SGP July 2022

This data set contains high-resolution image products (orthomosaics) acquired from midsized uncrewed aerial systems that have been processed for value-added quality. The instrument itself, a multispectral imager, the Altum by Micasense, captures six spectral bands (red, green blue, NIR, red edge, and LWIR/thermal1) as radiance, which is converted to reflectance via custom code. The code used to develop these images first uses tools from the Micasense Python library2 to apply dark level corrections, row gradient corrections, and radiometric corrections. Next, it uses the processing API from Agisoft Metashape software to align and mosaic the processed imagery, following the processes developed by the USGS' structure from motion workflow documentation.3 Captures at different altitudes (recorded in MSL) produce an orthomosaic, a tif image containing information related to the six spectral bands, and a digital elevation model (DEM), a tif image containing information related to the elevation of the surveyed terraine. Metadata included in every image can be used to extract lat, lon, and reflectance values. 1 https://www.arm.gov/publications/tech_reports/handbooks/doe-sc-arm-tr-281.pdf 2 https://micasense.github.io/imageprocessing/MicaSense%20Image%20Processing%20Setup.html 3 https://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2021/1039/ofr20211039.pdf

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Multispectral and thermal surface imagery and surface elevation mosaics - Pendleton Feb 2023

This data set contains high-resolution image products (orthomosaics) acquired from midsized uncrewed aerial systems that have been processed for value-added quality. The instrument Altum multispectral imager by Micasense, captures in six bands (blue - 475nm, green - 560nm, red - 668nm, red edge - 717nm, near-infrared - 840 and LWIR/thermal - 11000nm. The optical bands are converted to reflectance via custom code using the instantaneous band horizontal irradiance ratio to the radiance of the pixel. The code used to develop these images first uses tools from the Micasense Python library to apply dark level corrections, row gradient corrections, and radiometric corrections. Next, it uses the processing API from Agisoft Metashape software to align and mosaic the processed imagery, following the processes developed by the USGS' structure from motion workflow documentation. Captures from different altitudes are used to produce an orthomosaic at each height. A tif image containing information related to the six spectral bands, and a digital elevation model (DEM), a tif image containing information related to the elevation of the surveyed terrain. 1 https://www.arm.gov/publications/tech_reports/handbooks/doe-sc-arm-tr-281.pdf 2 https://micasense.github.io/imageprocessing/MicaSense%20Image%20Processing%20Setup.html 3 https://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2021/1039/ofr20211039.pdf

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

RTN-056: Study of the Photon Transfer Curve in the CCD detectors of the Vera C. Rubin Observatory

The RECA internship program provides Colombian students with an opportunity to enhance their research skills in Astronomy, Astrophysics, and Cosmology. During this three-month program, our main objective was to study the Photon Transfer Curves (PTC) of the Vera C. Rubin Observatory, specifically the gain, and to compare it with the gain obtained through pairs of flats. Overall, the study of PTCs is crucial in understanding the performance of detectors and instruments used in Astronomy. The Vera C. Rubin Observatory is an important facility that will enable researchers to carry out a wide range of studies in this field, making it essential to investigate its gain performance. We used run 13144 to construct the PTCs and 13186 to analyze the crosstalk. We employed the LSST Science Pipelines (also known as the DM stack), a software under development for this observatory, which performs all the necessary reductions for the construction of the PTCs. We also used simulations to replicate the observed effects. Initially, we found a 5% difference between the gain calculated by PTC and pairs of flats for a flow range between 5000 and 10000 ADU. Simulations showed that this difference was due to the handling of statistics and the assumption that the distribution following the Lupton equation is Gaussian. We found an error interval for this flow region based on the vendor, with (1.8 ± 0.7, 4.1 ± 0.9) % for E2V and (0.85 ± 0.7, 2.2 ± 0.9) % for ITL. From the PTC, we also obtained the average Full Well Capacity of LSSTCam as 130000 ± 10000$ electrons. We identified a list of segments where we found differences with the results obtained by SLAC National Acceleration Laboratory in PTC parameters, low saturation level, or other defects. We detected and corrected the effect of statistics in the gain calculation using pairs of flats and proposed a code change, which was implemented in the pipeline software. We do not recommend correcting for crosstalk as it does not significantly affect the parameters and does not change the shape of the PTC. However, the opposite is true for the nonlinearity correction.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Joint Channel Equalization and Symbol Detection for IoT Devices in Severe Multipath Channels

Internet of Things (IoT) devices often transmit very short message blocks without strong error correction coding or pilots for channel equalization. When the transmitted signals encounter a severe multipath channel, the receiver is often unable to equalize the resulting inter-symbol interference (ISI) via traditional methods, leading to a high retransmission rate. This paper proposes a joint channel equalization and symbol detection scheme for this scenario by utilizing the preamble sequence as a training pilot for equalization and the relatively weak cyclic redundancy check (CRC) 8-Dallas code for error correction. By assuming a sparse channel impulse response, the proposed joint channel equalization and symbol detection scheme formulates an l1 norm constrained optimization problem and solves it by a saddle-point algorithm. The proposed algorithm is applied to a set of real-world underwater animal tracking IoT data, and the results show improvement of correct message detection rate from 21:5% to 41:6%.

Jing, Shusen↗

Hadronic contributions to (g - 2) µ

The Muon g-2 Experiment at Fermilab, which recently started running, plans to reduce the uncertain- ties on the already very precisely measured anomalous magnetic moment of the muon by a factor of four. The goal of this effort is to probe the observed difference of more than three standard deviations between Standard-Model theory and experiment, one of the few persistent hints for physics beyond the Standard Model. The Fermilab experiment collected data from their first run last year with statistics comparable to BNL E821. They expect to release the measurement result in 2019. On the theoretical side, because the muon g - 2 arises from quantum- mechanical loop contributions in the Standard Model, it is sensitive to virtual effects of new particles, and places important constraints on Standard-Model extensions. To leverage the anticipated reduction in experimental errors, and determine unambiguously whether or not new-physics effects contribute to this quantity, the theoretical errors must be made more reliable and reduced to a commensurate precision. The Muon g-2 Theory Initiative was created to facilitate this development. The dominant sources of uncertainty in the Standard-Model prediction of the muon g -2 are from the hadronic contributions. The hadronic vacuum polarization (HVP) provides the leading correction followed by hadronic light-by-light (HLbL) scattering. There are a number of complementary theoretical efforts underway to better understand and quantify these contributions, including dispersive and data driven methods, lattice QCD, and effective field theories. Given the precision goals and the phenomenological importance, it is important to have more than one independent method for each of the two hadronic corrections, each with fully quantified uncertainties. Fostering the development of such methods is a prime goal of the initiative, as this will enable critical cross checks, and, upon combination, may yield gains in precision, to maximize the impact of E989. An important aspect of the Muon g-2 Theory Initiative’s activities are providing platforms that facilitate interactions between the different groups, as well as between the theoretical and experimental g - 2 communities. To this end, several workshops were organized in 2017 and 2018. The first meeting, held at Fermilab (June 3–6, 2017, St. Charles, IL, USA), served to kick-off the Initiative’s activities. Two meetings in early 2018 were focused respectively on the HVP and HLbL corrections. The HVP meeting was held at KEK (February 12–14, 2018, Tsukuba, Japan) and the HLbL meeting at the University of Connecticut (March 12–14, 2018, Storrs, CT, USA). The most recent workshop, which served as the second plenary meeting of the Initiative, was held at the University of Mainz (June 18–22, 2018, Mainz, Germany). An important outcome of these meetings are concrete plans for a first white paper, which is currently being written. We aim to post the white paper just prior to the release of the first E989 measurement, to present a clean theoretical prediction. The first white paper is focused on assessing and improving the reliability of the SM prediction. The purpose of the INT workshop in September 2019 is to start the next stage of the Initiative, focusing on the development of strategies to improve the theory uncertainties beyond the current level towards the E989 precision goal. We aim to accelerate theoretical developments on the hadronic contributions to the muon g - 2 so that the Standard-Model theory error can be brought to the needed precision, again in advance of the next release from E989. Hence the workshop will provide crucial theory support for a US experiment with broad impact. The Muon g-2 Theory Initiative relies on input from representatives of all the different communities that are engaged in this effort. It is therefore important that all these areas are properly represented. The funds from this grant will be used to enable more people, especially early-career scientists, to participate and make essential contributions to the workshop discussions. Since the workshop’s main goal is to kick-off the next stage of the theory initiative’s activities, support for this workshop from the DOE will help the theory community provide crucial theoretical support to the Fermilab Muon g-2 Experiment.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Exploring QCD Factorization at Moderate Energy Scales

Asymptotic freedom in QCD facilitates the use of partonic degrees of freedom over short distances, but physical processes are sensitive to a wide range of scales. Thus, it is necessary in QCD calculations to utilize a factorization scheme to separate a process into perturbative and non-perturbative factors. This separation relies on an assumption that one energy scale is infinitely larger than the other scales involved in the process. However, much experimental research in areas such as nucleon structure and quark-hadron duality occur at more moderate energy scales where that basic assumption may not be true but perturbative calculations should still be useful. Thus, an exploration of the limits of factorization at more moderate energy scales is needed. This dissertation examines various aspects of factorization at these energy scales first by applying the necessary approximations to a simple model where exact calculations are possible and so the effects of these approximations can be quantified. This is followed by examining areas where corrections are known to be needed. First is an exploration of target mass corrections (TMCs) in the case of deep inelastic scattering (DIS), including a discussion of what large corrections imply about the target structure. Second, is a general examination of PDFs and FFs at moderate scales. Third, I will discuss how this fits into the long-term effort to study the transition between small transverse momentum (generated non-perturbatively) and large transverse momentum (generated in the hard process)

Moffat, Eric↗

Confronting Domain Shift in Trained Neural Networks

Neural networks (NNs) are known as universal function approximators and can interpolate nonlinear functions between observed data points. However, when the target domain for deployment shifts from the training domain and NNs must extrapolate, the results are notoriously poor. Prior work Martinez et al. (2019) has shown that NN uncertainty estimates can be used to correct binary predictions in shifted domains without retraining the model. We hypothesize that this approach can be extended to correct real-valued time series predictions. As an exemplar, we consider two mechanical systems with nonlinear dynamics. The first system consists of a spring-mass system where the stiffness changes abruptly, and the second is a real experimental system with a frictional joint that is an open challenge for structural dynamicists to model efficiently. Our experiments will test whether 1) NN uncertainty estimates can identify when the input domain has shifted from the training domain and 2) whether the information used to calculate uncertainty estimates can be used to correct the NN’s time series predictions. While the method as proposed did not significantly improve predictions, our results did show potential for modifications that could improve models’ predictions and play a role in structural health monitoring systems that directly impact public safety.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗