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At least 1,387 records · Page 77

Comparative efficacy of 177 Lu and 90 Y for Anti-CD20 Pretargeted Radioimmunotherapy in Murine Lymphoma Xenograft Models

Purpose Pretargeted radioimmunotherapy (PRIT) is a multi-step method of selectively delivering high doses of radiotherapy to tumor cells while minimizing exposure to surrounding tissues. Yttrium-90 ( 90 Y) and lutetium-177 ( 177 Lu) are two of the most promising beta-particle emitting radionuclides used for radioimmunotherapy, which despite having similar chemistries differ distinctly in terms of radiophysical features. These differences may have important consequences for the absorbed dose to tumors and normal organs. Whereas 90 Y has been successfully applied in a number of preclinical and clinical radioimmunotherapy settings, there have been few published pretargeting studies with 177 Lu. We therefore compared the therapeutic potential of targeting either 90 Y or 177 Lu to human B-cell lymphoma xenografts in mice. Methods Parallel experiments evaluating the biodistribution, imaging, dosimetry, therapeutic efficacy, and toxicity were performed in female athymic nude mice bearing either Ramos (Burkitt lymphoma) or Granta (mantle cell lymphoma) xenografts, utilizing an anti-CD20 antibodystreptavidin conjugate (1F5-SA) and an 90 Y- or 177 Lu-labeled 1,4,7,10-tetraazacyclododecane-1,4,7,10-tetraacetic acid (DOTA)-biotin second step reagent. Results The two radionuclides displayed comparable biodistributions in tumors and normal organs; however, the absorbed radiation dose delivered to tumor was more than twice as high for 90 Y (1.3 Gy/MBq) as for 177 Lu (0.6 Gy/MBq). More importantly, therapy with 90 Y-DOTAbiotin was dramatically more effective than with 177 Lu-DOTA-biotin, with 100% of Ramos xenograft-bearing mice cured with 37 MBq 90 Y, whereas 0% were cured using identical amounts of 177 Lu-DOTA-biotin. Similar results were observed in mice bearing Granta xenografts, with 80% of the mice cured with 90 Y-PRIT and 0% cured with 177 Lu-PRIT. Toxicities were comparable with both isotopes. Conclusion 90 Y was therapeutically superior to 177 Lu for streptavidin-biotin PRIT approaches in these human lymphoma xenograft models.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗

Sensemaking, stakeholder discord, and long-term risk communication at a US Superfund site

Abstract Introduction: Risk communication can help reduce exposures to environmental contaminants, mitigate negative health outcomes, and inform community-based decisions about hazardous waste sites. While communication best practices have long guided such efforts, little research has examined unintended consequences arising from such guidelines. As rhetoric informs stakeholder sensemaking, the language used in and reinforced by these guidelines can challenge relationships and exacerbate stakeholder tensions. Objectives: This study evaluates risk communication at a U.S. Superfund site to identify unintended consequences arising from current risk communication practices. Methods: This qualitative case study crystallizes data spanning 6 years from three sources: 1) local newspaper coverage of site-related topics; 2) focus-group transcripts from a multi-year project designed to support future visioning of site use; and 3) published blog entries authored by a local environmental activist. Constant comparative analysis provides the study’s analytic foundation, with qualitative data analysis software QSR NVivo 8 supporting a three-step process: 1) provisional coding to identify broad topic categories within datasets, 2) coding occurrences of sensemaking constructs and emergent intra-dataset patterns, and 3) grouping related codes across datasets to examine the relationships among them. Results: Existing risk communication practices at this Superfund site contribute to a dichotomous conceptualization of multiple and diverse stakeholders as members of one of only two categories: the government or the public. This conceptualization minimizes perceptions of capacity, encourages public commitment to stances aligned with a preferred group, and contributes to negative expectations that can become self-fulfilling prophecies. Conclusion: Findings indicate a need to re-examine and adapt risk communication guidelines to encourage more pluralistic understanding of the stakeholder landscape.

Environmental Sciences & Ecology↗

Thin-film chemical expansion of ceria based solid solutions: laser vibrometry study

The chemical expansion of Pr 0.1 Ce 0.9 O 2-δ (PCO) and CeO 2-δ thin films is investigated in the temperature range between 600 °C and 800 °C by laser Doppler vibrometry (LDV). It enables non-contact determination of nanometer scale changes in film thickness at high temperatures. The present study is the first systematic and detailed investigation of chemical expansion of doped and undoped ceria thin films at temperatures above 650 °C. The thin films were deposited on yttria stabilized zirconia substrates (YSZ), operated as an electrochemical oxygen pump, to periodically adjust the oxygen activity in the films, leading to reversible expansion and contraction of the film. This further leads to stresses in the underlying YSZ substrates, accompanied by bending of the overall devices. Film thickness changes and sample bending are found to reach up to 10 and several hundred nanometers, respectively, at excitation frequencies from 0.1 to 10 Hz and applied voltages from 0–0.75 V for PCO and 0–1 V for ceria. At low frequencies, equilibrium conditions are approached. As a consequence maximum thin-film expansion of PCO is expected due to full reduction of the Pr ions. The lower detection limit for displacements is found to be in the subnanometer range. At 800 °C and an excitation frequency of 1 Hz, the LDV shows a remarkable resolution of 0.3 nm which allows, for example, the characterization of materials with small levels of expansion, such as undoped ceria at high oxygen partial pressure. As the correlation between film expansion and sample bending is obtained through this study, a dimensional change of a free body consisting of the same material can be calculated using the high resolution characteristics of this system. A minimum detectable dimensional change of 5 pm is estimated even under challenging high-temperature conditions at 800 °C opening up opportunities to investigate electro-chemo-mechanical phenomena heretofore impossible to investigate. The expansion data are correlated with previous results on the oxygen nonstoichiometry of PCO thin films, and a defect model for bulk ceria solid solutions is adopted to calculate the cation and anion radii changes in the constrained films during chemical expansion. The constrained films exhibit anisotropic volume expansion with displacements perpendicular to the substrate plane nearly double that of bulk samples. The PCO films used here generate high total displacements of several 100 nm’s with high reproducibility. Consequently, PCO films are identified to be a potential core component of high-temperature actuators. They benefit not only from high displacements at temperatures where most piezoelectric materials no longer operate while exhibiting, low voltage operation and low energy consumption.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Lateral Water Structure Connects Metal Oxide Nanoparticle Faces

When a metal oxide surface is immersed in aqueous solution, it has the ability to bind, orient, and order interfacial water, affecting both chemical and physical interactions with the surface. Structured interfacial water thus possesses time-averaged, spatially varying polarization charge and potential that are comparable to those arising due to ion accumulation. It is well established that interfacial water structure propagates from the surface into bulk solution. Here, we show that interfacial water structure also propagates laterally, with important consequences. The constant pH molecular dynamics was used to impose a pH difference between opposite faces of a model goethite (a-FeOOH) nanoparticle and quantify water polarization charge on intervening faces. We find that the structure of water on one face is strongly affected by the structure on nearby surfaces, revealing the importance of long-range lateral hydrogen bonding networks with implications for particle aggregation, oriented attachment, and processes such as dissolution and growth.

Zarzycki, Piotr P.↗

Hydrologic filtering of fish life history strategies across the United States: implications for stream flow alteration

Lotic fish have developed life history strategies adapted to the natural variation in stream flow regimes. The natural timing, duration, and magnitude of flow events has contributed to the diversity, production, and composition of fish assemblages over time. Studies evaluating the role of hydrology in structuring fish assemblages have been more common at the local or regional scale with very few studies conducted at the continental scale. Furthermore, quantitative linkages between natural hydrologic patterns and fish assemblages are rarely used to make predictions of ecological consequences of hydrologic alterations. We ask two questions: (1) what is the relative role of hydrology in structuring fish assemblages at large scales? and (2) can relationships between fish assemblages and natural hydrology be utilized to predict fish assemblage responses to hydrologic disturbance? We developed models to relate fish life histories and reproductive strategies to landscape and hydrologic variables separately and then combined. Models were then used to predict the ecological consequences of altered hydrology due to dam regulation. Although hydrology plays a considerable role in structuring fish assemblages, the performance of models using only hydrologic variables was lower than that of models constructed using landscape variables. Isolating the relative importance of hydrology in structuring fish assemblages at the continental scale is difficult since hydrology is interrelated to many landscape factors. By applying models to dam-regulated hydrologic data, we observed some consistent predicted responses in fish life history strategies and modes of reproduction. In agreement with existing literature, equilibrium strategists are predicted to increase following dam regulation, whereas opportunistic and periodic species are predicted to decrease. In addition, dam regulation favors the selection of reproductive strategies with extended spawning seasons and preference for stable conditions.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Sandy Soil Microaggregates: Rethinking Our Understanding of Hydraulic Function

Core Ideas Sandy soil microaggregates are comprised of a solid sand core encrusted with fines. Thick films control a significant proportion of water retention in coarse sandy soil. Three water pools drain sequentially: capillary water, thick films, and adsorptive films. Film seepage rates should be considered when irrigating sandy soil. This study investigated the peculiar structure of microaggregates in coarse sandy soils that exhibit only external porosity and investigated their control on soil hydrology. The microstructure underpins a hydrologic existence that differs from finer textured soils where aggregates have internal porosity. Understanding the impact of these microaggregates on soil hydrology will permit improved agricultural irrigation management and estimates associated with ecosystem capacity and resiliency. Microstructure was investigated using a digital microscope, and aspects of the structure were quantified by sedimentation and computed microtomography. Sandy soil microaggregates were observed to be comprised of a solid sand‐grain core that is coated with fines, presumably cemented by organic media. This microstructure leads to three distinct water pools during drainage: capillary water, followed by thick films (1–20 μm) enveloping the outer surfaces of the crusted microaggregates, followed by adsorbed thin films (<1 μm). The characteristics of the thick films were investigated using an analytical model. These films may provide as much as 10 to 40% saturation in the range of plant‐available water. Using lubrication theory, it was predicted that thick film drainage follows a power law function with an exponent of 2. Thick films may also have a role in the geochemical evolution of soils and in ecosystem function because they provide contiguous water and gas phases at relatively high moisture contents. And, because the rough outer crust of these microaggregates can provide good niches for microbial activity, biofilm physics will dominate thick film processes, and consequently hydrologic, biologic, and geochemical functions for coarse sandy soils.

Paradiś, Ashley↗

Volume-preserving diffeomorphism as nonabelian higher-rank gauge symmetry

We propose nonabelian higher-rank gauge theories in 2+1D and 3+1D. The gauge group is constructed from the volume-preserving diffeomorphisms of space. We show that the intriguing physics of the lowest Landau level (LLL) limit can be interpreted as the consequences of the symmetry. We derive the renowned Girvin-MacDonald-Platzman (GMP) algebra as well as the topological Wen-Zee term within our formalism. Using the gauge symmetry in 2+1D, we derive the LLL effective action of vortex crystal in rotating Bose gas as well as Wigner crystal of electron in an applied magnetic field. We show that the nonlinear sigma models of ferromagnets in 2+1D and 3+1D exhibit the higher-rank gauge symmetries that we introduce in this paper. We interpret the fractonic behavior of the excitations on the lowest Landau level and of skyrmions in ferromagnets as the consequence of the higher-rank gauge symmetry.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Multipole groups and fracton phenomena on arbitrary crystalline lattices

Multipole symmetries are of interest in multiple contexts, from the study of fracton phases, to nonergodic quantum dynamics, to the exploration of new hydrodynamic universality classes. However, prior explorations have focused on continuum systems or hypercubic lattices. In this work, we systematically explore multipole symmetries on arbitrary crystal lattices. We explain how, given a crystal structure (specified by a space group and the occupied Wyckoff positions), one may systematically construct all consistent multipole groups. We focus on two-dimensional crystal structures for simplicity, although our methods are general and extend straightforwardly to three dimensions. We classify the possible multipole groups on all two-dimensional Bravais lattices, and on the Kagome and breathing Kagome crystal structures to illustrate the procedure on general crystal lattices. Using Wyckoff positions, we provide an in-principle classification of all possible multipole groups in any space group. We explain how, given a valid multipole group, one may construct a consistent lattice Hamiltonian and a low-energy field theory. We then explore the physical consequences, beginning by generalizing certain results originally obtained on hypercubic lattices to arbitrary crystal structures. Next, we identify two apparently novel phenomena: an emergent, robust subsystem symmetry on the triangular lattice, and an exact multipolar symmetry on the breathing Kagome lattice that does not include conservation of charge (monopole), but instead conserves a vector charge. This makes clear that there is new physics to be found by exploring the consequences of multipolar symmetries on arbitrary lattices, and this work provides the map for the exploration thereof, as well as guiding the search for emergent multipolar symmetries and the attendant exotic phenomena in real materials based on nonhypercubic lattices.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Laboratory Experiments on the Effects of Blade Strike from Hydrokinetic Energy Technologies on Larval and Juvenile Freshwater Fishes

There is considerable interest in the development of marine and hydrokinetic energy projects in rivers, estuaries, and coastal ocean waters of the United States. Hydrokinetic (HK) technologies convert the energy of moving water in river or tidal currents into electricity, without the impacts of dams and impoundments associated with conventional hydropower or the extraction and combustion of fossil fuels. The Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) maintains a database that displays the geographical distribution of proposed HK projects in inland and tidal waters (FERC 2012). As of March 2012, 77 preliminary permits had been issued to private developers to study HK projects in inland waters, the development of which would total over 8,000 MW. Most of these projects are proposed for the lower Mississippi River. In addition, the issuance of another 27 preliminary permits for HK projects in inland waters, and 3 preliminary permits for HK tidal projects (totaling over 3,100 MW) were under consideration by FERC. Although numerous HK designs are under development (see DOE 2009 for a description of the technologies and their potential environmental effects), the most commonly proposed current-based projects entail arrays of rotating devices, much like submerged wind turbines, that are positioned in the high-velocity (high energy) river channels. The many diverse HK designs imply a diversity of environmental impacts, but a potential impact common to most is the risk for blade strike to aquatic organisms. In conventional hydropower generation, research on fish passage through reaction turbines at low-head dams suggested that strike and mortality for small fish could be low. As a consequence of the large surface area to mass ratio of small fish, the drag forces in the boundary layer flow at the surface of a rotor blade may pull small fish around the leading edge of a rotor blade without making physical contact (Turnpenny 1998, Turnpenny et al. 2000). Although there is concern that small, fragile fish early life stages may be unable to avoid being struck by the blades of hydrokinetic turbines, we found no empirical data in the published literature that document survival of earliest life-stage fish in passage by rotor blades. In addition to blade strike, research on passage of fish through conventional hydropower turbines suggested that fish mortalities from passage through the rotor swept area could also occur due to shear stresses and pressure chances in the water column (Čada et al. 1997, Turnpenny 1998). However, for most of the proposed HK turbine designs the rotors are projected to operate a lower RPM (revolutions per minute) than observed from conventional reaction turbines; the associated shear stress and pressure changes are expected to be lower and pose a smaller threat to fish survival (DOE 2009). Only a limited number of studies have been conducted to examine the risk of blade strike from hydrokinetic technologies to fish (Turnpenny et al. 1992, Normandeau et al. 2009, Seitz et al. 2011, EPRI 2011); the survival of drifting or weakly swimming fish (especially early life stages) that encounter rotor blades from hydrokinetic (HK) devices is currently unknown. Our study addressed this knowledge gap by testing how fish larvae and juveniles encountered different blade profiles of hydrokinetic devices and how such encounters influenced survivorship. We carried out a laboratory study designed to improve our understanding of how fish larvae and juvenile fish may be affected by encounters with rotor blades from HK turbines in the water column of river and ocean currents. (For convenience, these early life stages will be referred to as young of the year, YOY). The experiments developed information needed to quantify the risk (both probability and consequences) of rotor-blade strike to YOY fish. In particular, this study attempted to determine whether YOY drifting in a high-velocity flow directly in the path of the blade leading edge will make contact with the rotor blade or will bypass the blade while entrained in the boundary layer of water flowing over the blade surface. The study quantified both immediate and delayed mortalities (observed immediately, 3 hours, and 24 hours after encountering the blade) among freshwater YOY fish resulting from contact with the blade or turbulent flows in the wake of the blade.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗

A Recommended Pasquill-Gifford Stability Classification Method for Safety Basis Atmospheric Dispersion Modeling at SRS

Several of the most common methods for estimating Pasquill-Gifford (PG) stability (turbulence) class were evaluated for use in modeling the radiological consequences of SRS accidental releases using the MELCOR Accident Consequence Code System, Ver. 2 (MACCS2). Evaluation criteria included: (1) the ability of the method to represent diffusion characteristics above a predominantly forested landscape at SRS, (2) suitability of the method to provide data consistent with the formulation of the MACCS2 model, and (3) the availability of onsite meteorological data to support implementation of the method The evaluation resulted in a recommendation that PG stability classification for regulatory applications at SRS should be based on measurements of the standard deviation of the vertical component of wind direction fluctuations, σ e , collected from the 61-m level of the SRS meteorological towers, and processed in full accordance with EPA-454/R-99-005 (EPA, 2000). This approach provides a direct measurement that is fundamental to diffusion and captures explicitly the turbulence generated by both mechanical and buoyant forces over the characteristic surface (forested) of SRS. Furthermore, due to the potentially significant enhancement of horizontal fluctuations in wind direction from the occurrence of meander at night, the use of σ e will ensure a reasonably conservative estimate of PG stability class for use in dispersion models that base diffusion calculations on a single value of PG stability class. Furthermore, meteorological data bases used as input for MACCS2 calculations should contain hourly data for five consecutive annual periods from the most recent 10 years.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Uncertainty Quantification of Hypothesis Testing for the Integrated Knowledge Engine

The Integrated Knowledge Engine (IKE) is a tool of Bayesian analysis, based on Bayesian Belief Networks or Bayesian networks for short. A Bayesian network is a graphical model (directed acyclic graph) that allows representing the probabilistic structure of many variables assuming a localized type of dependency called the Markov property. The Markov property in this instance makes any node or random variable to be independent of any non-descendant node given information about its parent. A direct consequence of this property is that it is relatively easy to incorporate new evidence and derive the appropriate consequences, which in general is not an easy or feasible task. Typically we use Bayesian networks as predictive models for a small subset of the variables, either the leave nodes or the root nodes. In IKE, since most applications deal with diagnostics, we are interested in predicting the likelihood of the root nodes given new observations on any of the children nodes. The root nodes represent the various possible outcomes of the analysis, and an important problem is to determine when we have gathered enough evidence to lean toward one of these particular outcomes. This document presents criteria to decide when the evidence gathered is sufficient to draw a particular conclusion or decide in favor of a particular outcome by quantifying the uncertainty in the conclusions that are drawn from the data. The material in this document is organized as follows: Section 2 presents briefly a forensics Bayesian network, and we explore evaluating the information provided by new evidence by looking first at the posterior distribution of the nodes of interest, and then at the corresponding posterior odds ratios. Section 3 presents a third alternative: Bayes Factors. In section 4 we finalize by showing the relation between the posterior odds ratios and Bayes factors and showing examples these cases, and in section 5 we conclude by providing clear guidelines of how to use these for the type of Bayesian networks used in IKE.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Validation of the BERT Point Source Inversion Scheme Using the Joint Urban 2003 Tracer Experiment Dataset (Final Report)

A terrorist attack in a U.S. city utilizing biological weapons could have severe consequences. A biological agent could be aerosolized and emitted into the air in the middle of a city, invisibly traveling with the winds, and dosing an unknowing populace. The magnitude of the problem would only be revealed as sick people started arriving several days later at hospitals with symptoms, many already too ill to be saved. A national program has deployed a network of biological agent collectors in U.S. cities to provide early detection of a bio-weapon attack, thereby hastening medical intervention and potentially saving many thousands of lives. In fact, the most effective treatment takes place prior to infection or in its early stages and early warning might reduce the disease progression and, consequently, the possibility of an outbreak. If a biological attack were to occur in a city, one or more collectors may register hits with specific dosages and the city would be alerted that an attack had taken place. This piece of information alone, however, would not be enough to determine how serious the attack was, i.e., how much biological agent was released into the air and where the bio-plume traveled. The first responders and public health communities will want to know what regions were impacted, how many persons might get sick, which people most need medical supplies, and where to clean up. The law enforcement community will want to look for forensic evidence at the release location. The Bio-Agent Event Reconstruction Tool (BERT) has been developed in order to recreate what might have happened during an airborne biological agent attack based on biological agent collector measurements and wind collectors mounted around a city. The tool can be used to estimate possible release areas while eliminating other areas, and can estimate bounds on the amount of material released. The tool can then be used to project forward from the possible source areas to estimate potential hazard zones. Due to a unique source inversion technique - called the upwind collector footprint approach - the tool runs fast and the source regions can be determined in a few minutes. In this report, we provide an overview of the BERT framework, followed by a description of the source inversion technique. The Joint URBAN 2003 field experiment held in Oklahoma City that was used to validate BERT is then described. Subsequent sections describe the metrics used for evaluation, the comparison of the experimental data and BERT output, and under what conditions the BERT tool succeeds and performs poorly. Results are aggregated in different ways (e.g., daytime vs. nighttime releases, 1 vs. 2 vs. 3 hit collectors) to determine if BERT shows any systematic errors. Finally, recommendations are given for how to improve the code and procedures for optimizing performance in operational mode.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗

Technical Basis for DOE Standard 3013 Equivalency Supporting Reduced Temperature Stabilization of Oxalate-Derived Plutonium Oxide Produced by the HB-Line Facility at Savannah River Site

The HB-Line (HBL) facility at the Savannah River Site (SRS) is designed to produce high-purity plutonium dioxide (PuO 2 ) which is suitable for future use in production of Mixed Oxide (MOX) fuel. The MOX Fuel Fabrication Facility (MFFF) requires PuO 2 feed to be packaged per the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Standard 3013 (DOE-STD-3013) to comply with the facility's safety basis. The stabilization conditions imposed by DOE-STD-3013 for PuO 2 (i.e., 950 °C for 2 hours) preclude use of the HBL PuO 2 in direct fuel fabrication and reduce the value of the HBL product as MFFF feedstock. Consequently, HBL initiated a technical evaluation to define acceptable operating conditions for production of high-purity PuO 2 that fulfills the DOE-STD-3013 criteria for safe storage. The purpose of this document is to demonstrate that within the defined operating conditions, the HBL process will be equivalent for meeting the requirements of the DOE-STD-3013 stabilization process for plutonium-bearing materials from the DOE complex. The proposed 3013 equivalency reduces the prescribed stabilization temperature for high-purity PuO 2 from oxalate precipitation processes from 950 °C to 640 °C and places a limit of 60% on the relative humidity (RH) at the lowest material temperature. The equivalency is limited to material produced using the HBL established flow sheet, for example, nitric acid anion exchange and Pu(IV) direct strike oxalate precipitation with stabilization at a minimum temperature of 640 °C for four hours (h). The product purity must meet the MFFF acceptance criteria of 23,600 µg/g Pu (i.e., 2.1 wt %) total impurities and chloride content less than 250 µg/g of Pu. All other stabilization and packaging criteria identified by DOE-STD-3013-2012 or earlier revisions of the standard apply. Based on the evaluation of test data discussed in this document, the expert judgment of the authors supports packaging the HBL product under a 3013 equivalency. Under the defined process conditions and associated material specifications, the high-purity PuO 2 produced in HBL presents no unique safety concerns for packaging or storage in the 3013 required configuration. The PuO 2 produced using the HBL flow sheet conditions will have a higher specific surface area (SSA) than PuO 2 stabilized at 950 °C and, consequently, under identical conditions will adsorb more water from the atmosphere. The greatest challenge to HBL operators will be controlling moisture content below 0.5 wt %. However, even at the 0.5 wt % moisture limit, the maximum acceptable pressure of a stoichiometric mixture of hydrogen and oxygen in the 3013 container is greater than the maximum possible pressure for the HBL PuO 2 product.

08 HYDROGEN↗

Renewal of Collaborative Research: Economically Viable Forest Harvesting Practices That Increase Carbon Sequestration

Forests provide wildlife habitat, water and air purification, climate moderation, and timber and nontimber products. Concern about climate change has put forests in the limelight as sinks of atmospheric carbon. The C stored in the global vegetation, mostly in forests, is nearly equivalent to the amount present in atmospheric CO 2 . Both voluntary and government-mandated carbon trading markets are being developed and debated, some of which include C sequestration resulting from forest management as a possible tradeable commodity. However, uncertainties regarding sources of variation in sequestration rates, validation, and leakage remain significant challenges for devising strategies to include forest management in C markets. Hence, the need for scientifically-based information on C sequestration by forest management has never been greater. The consequences of forest management on the US carbon budget are large, because about two-thirds of the ≈300 million hectare US forest resource is classified as 'commercial forest.' In most C accounting budgets, forest harvesting is usually considered to cause a net release of C from the terrestrial biosphere to the atmosphere. However, forest management practices could be designed to meet the multiple goals of providing wood and paper products, creating economic returns from natural resources, while sequestering C from the atmosphere. The shelterwood harvest strategy, which removes about 30% of the basal area of the overstory trees in each of three successive harvests spread out over thirty years as part of a stand rotation of 60-100 years, may improve net C sequestration compared to clear-cutting because: (1) the average C stored on the land surface over a rotation increases, (2) harvesting only overstory trees means that a larger fraction of the harvested logs can be used for long-lived sawtimber products, compared to more pulp resulting from clearcutting, (3) the shelterwood cut encourages growth of subcanopy trees by opening up the forest canopy to increasing light penetration. Decomposition of onsite harvest slash and of wastes created during timber processing releases CO 2 to the atmosphere, thus offsetting some of the C sequestered in vegetation. Decomposition of soil C and dead roots may also be temporarily stimulated by increased light penetration and warming of the forest floor. Quantification of these processes and their net effect is needed. We began studying C sequestration in a planned shelterwood harvest at the Howland Forest in central Maine in 2000. The harvest took place in 2002 by the International Paper Corporation, who assisted us to track the fates of harvest products (Scott et al., 2004, Environmental Management 33: S9-S22). Here we present the results of intensive on-site studies of the decay of harvest slash, soil respiration, growth of the remaining trees, and net ecosystem exchange (NEE) of CO 2 during the first six years following the harvest. These results are combined with calculations of C in persisting off-site harvest products to estimate the net C consequences to date of this commercial shelterwood harvest operation. Tower-based eddy covariance is an ideal method for this study, as it integrates all C fluxes in and out of the forest over a large 'footprint' area and can reveal how the net C flux, as well as gross primary productivity and respiration, change following harvest. Because the size of this experiment precludes large-scale replication, we are use a paired-airshed approach, similar to classic large-scale paired watershed experiments. Measurements of biomass and C fluxes in control and treatment stands were compared during a pre-treatment calibration period, and then divergence from pre-treatment relationships between the two sites measured after the harvest treatment. Forests store carbon (C) as they accumulate biomass. Many forests are also commercial sources of timber and wood fiber. In most C accounting budgets, forest harvesting is usually considered to cause a net release of C from the terrestrial biosphere to the atmosphere. However, it might also be possible for commercial use of forests to contribute to terrestrial sequestration of C. The objective of the our research project is to determine whether shelterwood cutting regimes now being adopted in the commercial forests of Maine and other areas of the country can achieve these multiple goals.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

2011 Annual Ecological Survey: Pacific Northwest National Laboratory Site

The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Pacific Northwest Site Office (PNSO) oversees and manages the DOE contract for the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), a DOE Office of Science multi-program laboratory located in Richland, Washington. PNSO is responsible for ensuring that all activities conducted on the PNNL site comply with applicable laws, policies, and DOE Orders. The DOE Pacific Northwest Site Office Cultural and Biological Resources Management Plan (DOE/PNSO 2008) addresses the requirement for annual surveys and monitoring for species of concern and to identify and map invasive species. In addition to the requirement for an annual survey, proposed project activities must be reviewed to assess any potential environmental consequences of conducting the project. The assessment process requires a thorough understanding of the resources present, the potential impacts of a proposed action to those resources, and the ultimate consequences of those actions. The PNNL site is situated on the southeastern corner of the DOE Hanford Site, located at the north end of the city of Richland in south-central Washington. The site is bordered on the east by the Columbia River, on the west by Stevens Drive, and on the north by the Hanford Site 300 Area (Figure 1). The environmental setting of the PNNL site is described in Larson and Downs (2009). There are currently two facilities on the PNNL site: the William R. Wiley Environmental Molecular Sciences Laboratory and the Physical Sciences Facility. This report describes the annual survey of biological resources found on the undeveloped upland portions of the PNNL site. The annual survey is comprised of a series of individual field surveys conducted on various days in late May and throughout June 2011. A brief description of the methods PNNL ecologists used to conduct the baseline surveys and a summary of the results of the surveys are presented. Appendix A provides a list of plant and animal species identified in the upland areas of the PNNL site in 2011. Efforts in 2011 to control noxious weed populations (comprising plant species designated as Class B noxious weeds by the Washington State Noxious Weed Control Board) discovered in 2009 and initially treated with herbicides in 2010 are described in Appendix B.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Geochemical Implications of CO 2 Leakage Associated with Geologic Storage: A Review

Leakage from deep storage reservoirs is a major risk factor associated with geologic sequestration of carbon dioxide (CO 2 ). Different scientific theories exist concerning the potential implications of such leakage for near-surface environments. The authors of this report reviewed the current literature on how CO 2 leakage (from storage reservoirs) would likely impact the geochemistry of near surface environments such as potable water aquifers and the vadose zone. Experimental and modeling studies highlighted the potential for both beneficial (e.g., CO 2 re sequestration or contaminant immobilization) and deleterious (e.g., contaminant mobilization) consequences of CO 2 intrusion in these systems. Current knowledge gaps, including the role of CO 2 -induced changes in redox conditions, the influence of CO 2 influx rate, gas composition, organic matter content and microorganisms are discussed in terms of their potential influence on pertinent geochemical processes and the potential for beneficial or deleterious outcomes. Geochemical modeling was used to systematically highlight why closing these knowledge gaps are pivotal. A framework for studying and assessing consequences associated with each factor is also presented in Section 5.6.

CO2 sequestration↗

Software Regression Quality Assurance for MACCS2 Version 2.5.0.0 through Version 2.5.0.9

The “State-of-the-Art Consequence Analyses (SOARCA) Project: Uncertainty Analysis” has used a newer version of the MELCOR Accident Consequence Code Systems Version 2 (MACCS2) than what was previously used in the “SOARCA Project Volume 1: Peach Bottom Integrated Analysis,” NUREG/CR-7110 Volume 1. A software regression quality assurance program has been implemented for MACCS2. The documentation for the quality assurance from MACCS2 Version 2.5.0.0 through 2.5.0.9 ensures continuity between code versions and provides insight into the changes made within MACCS2.

Bixler, Nathan E.↗

Strategic Analysis of Complex Security Scenarios

Many advanced technical tools are available to prevent attacks on national infrastructure. Nevertheless, while traditional analyses of security problems have succeeded in producing good technical solutions, they have often ignored the human factor integral to these problems. Human attackers (who may be individuals or state-level attackers) expend substantial effort to breach security because they have the incentive for doing so. People involved in implementing security follow individual incentives, which need not align with global security concerns; consequently, desired security solutions are often implemented poorly, or not at all. This complex interplay between individual incentives and global (organizational and/or national) goals can be modeled and analyzed using game theoretic techniques. By analyzing not only what is possible, but also what is motivated, a holistic approach to security problems can be developed, informing policy and providing tools to policy makers. We study game theoretic models that unify several current incentive-based approaches to security, and develop simulation-based and mathematical optimization methods for analyzing such models that exploit the high-performance computing capabilities at Sandia. Our first model studies security in interdependent settings, offering a scalable local search heuristic to approximate optimal security decisions in general, and a linear programming approach, coupled with simulations of consequences, to optimally compute security in an important special case. Our second class of models addresses security patrolling problems when an adversary gets to observe the patrol location. We present a general framework, based on stochastic games, for computing optimal security policies in such settings, and present more scalable tools that apply in the important special cases. Our third contribution is a model of security that involves many defenders, but only models non-adaptive attackers (or natural disasters, inadvertent errors, etc). In this model, we demonstrate that the security decisions of many players result in global security configuration that is not very far from optimal, and is much more resilient to environment changes that an optimal solution. This positive effect dissipates, however, when the number of decision makers becomes too large.

Vorobeychik, Yevgeniy↗