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At least 1,387 records · Page 77
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

Investigating uncertainties in human adaptation and their impacts on water scarcity in the Colorado river Basin, United States

The Colorado River Basin (CRB) supports the water supply for seven states and forty million people in the Western United States (US) and has been suffering an extensive drought for more than two decades. As climate change continues to reshape water resources distribution in the CRB, its impact can differ in intensity and location, resulting in variations in human adaptation behaviors. The feedback from human systems in response to the environmental changes and the associated uncertainty is critical to water resources management, especially for water-stressed basins. This paper investigates how human adaptation affects water scarcity uncertainty in the CRB and highlights the uncertainties in human behavior modeling. Our focus is on agricultural water consumption, as approximately 80% of the water consumption in the CRB is used in agriculture. We adopted a coupled agent-based and water resources modeling approach for exploring human-water system dynamics, in which an agent is a human behavior model that simulates a farmer’s water consumption decisions. We examined uncertainties at the system, agent, and parameter levels through uncertainty, clustering, and sensitivity analyses. The uncertainty analysis results suggest that the CRB water system may experience 13 to 30 years of water shortage during the 2019–2060 simulation period, depending on the paths of farmers’ adaptation. The clustering analysis identified three decision-making classes: bold, prudent, and forward-looking, and quantified the probabilities of an agent belonging to each class. The sensitivity analysis results indicated agents whose decision-making models require further investigation and the parameters with the higher uncertainty reduction potentials. Here, by conducting numerical experiments with the coupled model, this paper presents quantitative and qualitative information about farmers’ adaptation, water scarcity uncertainties, and future research directions for improving human behavior modeling.

Agent-based modeling↗
DOE OSTI2023

Fast and accurate simulations of calorimeter showers with normalizing flows

In this study, we introduce caloflow, a fast detector simulation framework based on normalizing flows. For the first time, we demonstrate that normalizing flows can reproduce many-channel calorimeter showers with extremely high fidelity, providing a fresh alternative to computationally expensive geant4 simulations, as well as other state-of-the-art fast simulation frameworks based on generative adversarial networks (GANs) or variational autoencoders (VAEs). In addition to the usual histograms of physical features and images of calorimeter showers, we introduce a new metric for judging the quality of generative modeling: the performance of a classifier trained to differentiate real from generated images. We show that GAN-generated images can be identified by the classifier with nearly 100% accuracy, while images generated from caloflow are better able to fool the classifier. More broadly, normalizing flows offer several advantages compared to other state-of-the-art approaches (GANs and VAEs), including tractable likelihoods, stable and convergent training, and principled model selection. Normalizing flows also provide a bijective mapping between data and the latent space, which could have other applications beyond simulation, for example, to detector unfolding.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Evaluation of Mesoscale Convective Systems in Climate Simulations: Methodological Development and Results from MPAS-CAM over the U.S.

In this study, a process-oriented approach is developed to evaluate warm-season mesoscale convective system (MCS) precipitation and their favorable large-scale meteorological patterns (FLSMPs) over the U.S. This approach features a novel observation-driven MCS-tracking algorithm using infrared brightness temperature and precipitation feature at 12, 25 and 50 km resolution and metrics to evaluate the model large-scale environment favorable for MCS initiation. The tracking algorithm successfully reproduces the observed MCS statistics from a reference 4-km radar MCS database. To demonstrate the utility of the new methodologies in evaluating MCS in climate simulations with mesoscale resolution, the process-oriented approach is applied to two climate simulations produced by the Variable-Resolution Model for Prediction Across Scales coupled to the Community Atmosphere Model physics, with refined horizontal grid spacing at 50 km and 25 km over North America. With the tracking algorithm applied to simulations and observations at equivalent resolutions, the simulated number of MCS and associated precipitation amount, frequency and intensity are found to be consistently underestimated in the Central U.S., particularly from May to August. The simulated MCS precipitation shows little diurnal variation and lasts too long, while MCS precipitation area is too large and intensity is too weak. The model is able to simulate four types of observed FLSMP associated with frontal systems and low-level jets (LLJ) in spring, but the frequencies are underestimated because of low-level dry bias and weaker LLJ. Precipitation simulated under different FLSMPs peak during daytime, in contrast to the observed nocturnal peak. Implications of these findings for future model development and diagnostics are discussed.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Generalizing synthetic data-trained acoustic predictive models to real-world measurements

Acoustic Resonance Spectroscopy (ARS) is highly sensitive to structural properties such as material, geometry, and environmental conditions; as a consequence, it can noninvasively measure internal properties that are unobservable by most other methods. Because of its sensing capabilities and low implementation cost and complexity, ARS has potential as a paradigm shift in noninvasive sensing, characterization, and monitoring applications. However, extracting specific properties from ARS measurements, comprising the vibration spectrum of a test object, is challenging due to the sensitivity of the spectra to other structural changes not being measured, e.g. manufacturing tolerances, component coupling, environmental variation, etc. Neural Networks are promising tools for identifying trends in ARS measurements, but their training typically requires large datasets, which are often impractical to obtain for real-world systems. Synthetic data can be simulated efficiently, but discrepancies between synthetic and real-world data frequently lead to poor generalization when testing on the real-world data. We propose a novel ARS model training framework that enables networks trained exclusively on synthetic ARS data to generalize effectively to real-world measurements. Our approach leverages the Correlation Alignment (CORAL) technique to enforce the extraction of features common to both synthetic and real-world domains. As a case study, we demonstrate noninvasive ARS-based pressure measurements in sealed systems. Finite element method (FEM) simulations were used to generate synthetic training data across diverse vessel configurations and pressure conditions, and model performance was then tested on real-world measurements. We demonstrate that robust machine learning models for ARS can be developed without large real-world datasets, significantly broadening the applicability of ARS for noninvasive sensing. Moreover, the approach is extensible to other sensing modalities where synthetic data are abundant but real-world data are limited.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2022

HYPHY: Deep Generative Conditional Posterior Mapping of Hydrodynamical Physics

Generating large-volume hydrodynamical simulations for cosmological observables is a computationally demanding task necessary for next-generation observations. In this work, we construct a novel fully convolutional variational autoencoder (VAE) to synthesize hydrodynamic fields conditioned on dark matter fields from N -body simulations. After training the model on a single hydrodynamical simulation, we are able to probabilistically map new dark-matter-only simulations to corresponding full hydrodynamical outputs. By sampling over the latent space of our VAE, we can generate posterior samples and study the variance of the mapping. We find that our reconstructed field provides an accurate representation of the target hydrodynamical fields as well as reasonable variance estimates. This approach has promise for the rapid generation of mocks as well as for implementation in a full inverse model of observed data.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Characterizing climate pathways using feature importance on echo state networks

The 2022 National Defense Strategy of the United States listed climate change as a serious threat to national security. Climate intervention methods, such as stratospheric aerosol injection, have been proposed as mitigation strategies, but the downstream effects of such actions on a complex climate system are not well understood. The development of algorithmic techniques for quantifying relationships between source and impact variables related to a climate event (i.e., a climate pathway) would help inform policy decisions. Data-driven deep learning models have become powerful tools for modeling highly nonlinear relationships and may provide a route to characterize climate variable relationships. In this paper, we explore the use of an echo state network (ESN) for characterizing climate pathways. ESNs are a computationally efficient neural network variation designed for temporal data, and recent work proposes ESNs as a useful tool for forecasting spatiotemporal climate data. However, ESNs are noninterpretable black-box models along with other neural networks. The lack of model transparency poses a hurdle for understanding variable relationships. We address this issue by developing feature importance methods for ESNs in the context of spatiotemporal data to quantify variable relationships captured by the model. We conduct a simulation study to assess and compare the feature importance techniques, and we demonstrate the approach on reanalysis climate data. In the climate application, we consider a time period that includes the 1991 volcanic eruption of Mount Pinatubo. This event was a significant stratospheric aerosol injection, which acts as a proxy for an anthropogenic stratospheric aerosol injection. Furthermore, we are able to use the proposed approach to characterize relationships between pathway variables associated with this event that agree with relationships previously identified by climate scientists.

black-box models↗
DOE OSTI2026

Aluminum bonded SmCo5 magnets with enhanced mechanical strength

Despite their versatility and easy manufacturability, polymer-bonded magnets find limited application due to their limited mechanical properties and temperature resistance. In this study, we developed mechanically robust, aluminum-bonded SmCo5 magnets by utilizing a low-temperature, shear-assisted friction consolidation technique. Bonded magnets with varying magnetic phase content were fabricated at processing temperature of 500°C, and their microstructures, magnetic, mechanical, and electrical properties were systematically investigated. The resulting bonded-magnets showed effective consolidation with nanocrystalline microstructures. Magnetic properties were found to be tunable through variations in binder phase content, with coercivity reaching values up to 15.3 kOe (1217.5 kA/m) and maximum magnetic energy product up to 3.6 MGOe (28.7 kJ/m3), which are comparable to other bonded magnets. Electrical resistivities were lower than the polymer-bonded magnets, but comparable to the sintered ones. We observed an average flexural strength of 223 MPa for 60 vol.% SmCo5/Al sample, which is nearly two times higher than the reported values for sintered and bonded Sm-Co magnets. Our research demonstrated an effective approach to fabricate metal-bonded permanent magnets with superior magnetic and mechanical properties potentially applicable for high temperature applications.

Poudel Chhetri, Tej Bahadur↗
DOE OSTI2025

Surrogate optimization of variational quantum circuits

Variational quantum eigensolvers are touted as a near-term algorithm capable of impacting many applications. However, the potential has not yet been realized, with few claims of quantum advantage and high resource estimates, especially due to the need for optimization in the presence of noise. Finding algorithms and methods to improve convergence is important to accelerate the capabilities of near-term hardware for VQE or more broad applications of hybrid methods in which optimization is required. To this goal, we look to use modern approaches developed in circuit simulations and stochastic classical optimization, which can be combined to form a surrogate optimization approach to quantum circuits. Using an approximate (classical CPU/GPU) state vector simulator as a surrogate model, we efficiently calculate an approximate Hessian, passed as an input for a quantum processing unit or exact circuit simulator. This method will lend itself well to parallelization across quantum processing units. We demonstrate the capabilities of such an approach with and without sampling noise and a proof-of-principle demonstration on a quantum processing unit utilizing 40 qubits.

Gustafson, Erik J. [RIACS, Mtn. View] (ORCID:00000↗
DOE OSTI2026

Crystal generation using the fully differentiable pipeline and latent space optimization

We present a materials generation framework that couples a symmetry-conditioned variational autoencoder with a differentiable SO(3) power spectrum objective to steer candidates toward a specified local environment under the crystallographic constraints. In particular, we implement a fully differentiable pipeline that performs batch-wise optimization on both direct and latent crystallographic representations. Using the GPU acceleration, the implementation achieves about fivefold speed compared to our previous CPU workflow, while yielding comparable outcomes. In addition, we introduce the optimization strategy that alternatively performs optimization on the direct and latent crystal representations. This dual-level relaxation approach can effectively escape local minima defined by different objective gradients, thus increasing the success rate of generating complex structures satisfying the target local environments. This framework can be extended to systems consisting of multi-components and multi-environments, providing a scalable route to generate material structures with the target local environment.

conditional VAE↗
DOE OSTI2022

Theory of In-Cloud Activation of Aerosols and Microphysical Quasi-Equilibrium in a Deep Updraft

The microphysical quasi-equilibrium in an ascending adiabatic parcel is elucidated by an analytical theory in 0D with drastic simplifications. The theory predicts how in-cloud activation is most likely to be triggered by the onset of precipitation during sufficient ascent, with the ascent only needing to approach almost twice the cloud-base updraft speed aloft. The precipitation and cloud condensate mass fields are coupled in a closed system in a simplified version of the model. The initial state of no precipitation is unstable with respect to a perturbation. In the 2D phase space of both mass fields, there is a neutral line. Unstable growth of precipitation mass drives the system to cross the line into a regime of stability. An attractor is then approached consisting of precipitation mass balanced by accretion of cloud mass and fallout. The cloud-particle number concentration also approaches a stable equilibrium governed by the balance between in-cloud activation aloft from the inexorably increasing supersaturation during vertical acceleration and accretion of cloud droplets by precipitation. Dimensionless numbers characterizing the microphysical equilibria and their stability are derived mathematically, including a condensation–precipitation efficiency and an in-cloud activation efficiency. The theory explains common observations of the orders of magnitude of liquid water content in convective and stratiform clouds. Finally, sensitivity tests of the numerically integrated theoretical equations are documented with respect to variations in cloud condensation nucleus (CCN) aerosols and updraft speed. In conclusion, it is shown that this theory of in-cloud activation, with an increasing supersaturation during ascent, applies to both ice-only and liquid-only cloud.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Modeling and Calibration of Supplier Selection Problem in Freight Agent-Based Simulations

Freight transportation modeling often struggles with data limitations, especially in accurately representing complex supplier selection processes and their impact on network flows. This research addresses this critical gap by developing a large-scale, calibrated agent-based model for supplier selection, complemented by a probabilistic heuristic for international shipments. Our approach integrates trade relationships between industry sectors, transportation costs, and a supplier-rating model adapted from existing literature. The model’s core objective is to minimize the discrepancy between modeled and observed commodity flows while ensuring a close match to regional shipping distance distributions. Implemented and tested across four major U.S. metropolitan areas—Atlanta, Chicago, Dallas–Fort Worth, and Los Angeles—the model demonstrates high fidelity in replicating observed freight patterns. Key findings reveal consistent alignment with national shipping distance trends and highlight significant spatial variations in commodity trade assignments and demand across the study regions. This behaviorally informed and transport-sensitive framework is designed to approximate real-world decision making, providing a robust tool for policymakers and planners to evaluate targeted interventions, assess infrastructure investments, and enhance supply chain resilience in the face of disruptions.

Ismael, Abdelrahman (ORCID:0000000303712110)↗
DOE OSTI2026

Probing Cellular Activity Via Charge‐Sensitive Quantum Nanoprobes

Nitrogen‐vacancy (NV) based quantum sensors hold great potential for real‐time single‐cell sensing with far‐reaching applications in fundamental biology and medical diagnostics. Although highly sensitive, the mapping of quantum measurements onto cellular physiological states has remained an exceptional challenge. Here, we introduce a novel quantum sensing modality capable of detecting changes in cellular activity. Our approach is based on the detection of environment‐induced charge depletion within an individual particle that, owing to a previously unaccounted transverse dipole term, induces systematic shifts in the zero‐field splitting (ZFS). Importantly, these charge‐induced shifts serve as a reliable indicator for lipopolysaccharide (LPS)‐mediated inflammatory response in macrophages. Furthermore, we demonstrate that surface modification of our diamond nanoprobes effectively suppresses these environment‐induced ZFS shifts, providing an important tool for differentiating electrostatic shifts caused by the environment from other unrelated effects, such as temperature variations. Notably, this surface modification also leads to significant reductions in particle‐induced toxicity and inflammation. Our findings shed light on systematic drifts and sensitivity limits of NV spectroscopy in a biological environment with ramifications for the critical discussion surrounding single‐cell thermogenesis. Notably, this work establishes the foundation for a novel sensing modality capable of probing complex cellular processes through straightforward physical measurements.

band bending↗
DOE OSTI2020

Evolution of AISI 304L stainless steel part properties due to powder recycling in laser powder-bed fusion

Selective laser melting (SLM) is a powder-bed fusion process in Additive Manufacturing (AM) that uses a laser beam to selectively fuse layers of powder into near net-shape components with little porosity. However, inconsistencies in the part properties due to the presence of defects in as-built components has hindered the widespread adoption of SLM for industrial applications forcing researchers to study the sources of variation for quality control purposes. A critical area suspected of creating variation in the part properties is the feedstock, where batch-to-batch differences as well as changes in the powder properties with reuse have the potential to affect performance. During processing, laser spatter and condensate eject from the melt pool and deposit into the powder-bed surrounding the parts. These particulates, more commonly known as ejecta, differ morphologically and chemically from the virgin powder compromising its reusability. In this study, 304L stainless steel powder was recycled for a total of 5 times through a systematic approach aimed at accelerating powder degradation to reveal the influence on both the tensile and impact toughness properties. Through analysis of variance (ANOVA), it was found that tensile properties did not change with reuse, while the impact toughness showed a steady decline illustrating the differences in static and dynamic part properties due to powder recycling.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2026

Recent Weakening of the Global Radiative Feedback

Earth's climate stability, characterized by the global radiative feedback parameter (𝜆), varies decadally due to changing surface temperature patterns. Recent variations in 𝜆 are poorly understood as coordinated model simulations typically end in 2014. We apply a convolutional neural network trained on climate model simulations to observation-based surface temperature reconstructions to estimate variations in 𝜆 up to 2025. We find that 𝜆 reached a minimum (maximum stability) around the mid 1990s (𝜆 ≃ −3 Wm −2 /K), but has since weakened significantly (𝜆 ≃ −2 Wm −2 /K). We confirm these results with climate model simulations extended to 2022. The recent 𝜆 weakening is not significantly affected by El Niño Southern Oscillation or Pacific Decadal Oscillation. Attribution reveals that warming in the subtropical Northeast Pacific is an important driver of the recently weakened feedback, confirmed by targeted experiments in E3SMv2. Our approach enables near real-time monitoring of Earth's climate stability.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Quantum algorithm for electronic band structures with local tight-binding orbitals

While the main thrust of quantum computing research in materials science is to accurately measure the classically intractable electron correlation effects due to Coulomb repulsion, designing optimal quantum algorithms for simpler problems with well-understood solutions is a useful tactic to advance our quantum “toolbox”. With this in mind, we consider the quantum calculation of a periodic system’s single-electron band structure over a path through reciprocal space. Previous efforts have used the Variational Quantum Eigensolver algorithm to solve the energy of each band, which involves numerically optimizing the parameters of a variational quantum circuit to minimize a cost function, constructed as the expectation value of a Hamiltonian operator. Traditionally, a unique Hamiltonian operator is constructed for each k-point, so that many cost functions, each with their own parameter space, must be optimized to generate a single band. Similarly, calculating higher bands than the first has traditionally involved modifying the cost function with additional overlap terms to ensure higher-energy eigenstates are orthogonal to those of lower bands. In this paper, we adopt a direct space approach, using a novel hybrid first/second-quantized qubit mapping which allows us to construct a single Hamiltonian, and a single cost-function, suitable for solving the entire electronic band structure. In contrast to previous approaches, the k-point and the band index are selected by additional parameters in our quantum circuit, rather than through modifications to the cost function. The result is a technically and conceptually simpler approach to band structure calculations on a quantum computer. Moreover, we expect that the tools developed herein will motivate new strategies for tackling highly-correlated materials beyond the grasp of classical computing.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2023

Integrating plant physiology into simulation of fire behavior and effects

Summary Wildfires are a global crisis, but current fire models fail to capture vegetation response to changing climate. With drought and elevated temperature increasing the importance of vegetation dynamics to fire behavior, and the advent of next generation models capable of capturing increasingly complex physical processes, we provide a renewed focus on representation of woody vegetation in fire models. Currently, the most advanced representations of fire behavior and biophysical fire effects are found in distinct classes of fine‐scale models and do not capture variation in live fuel (i.e. living plant) properties. We demonstrate that plant water and carbon dynamics, which influence combustion and heat transfer into the plant and often dictate plant survival, provide the mechanistic linkage between fire behavior and effects. Our conceptual framework linking remotely sensed estimates of plant water and carbon to fine‐scale models of fire behavior and effects could be a critical first step toward improving the fidelity of the coarse scale models that are now relied upon for global fire forecasting. This process‐based approach will be essential to capturing the influence of physiological responses to drought and warming on live fuel conditions, strengthening the science needed to guide fire managers in an uncertain future.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Temperature-adaptive radiative coating for all-season household thermal regulation

The sky is a natural heat sink that has been extensively used for passive radiative cooling of households. A lot of focus has been on maximizing the radiative cooling power of roof coating in the hot daytime using static, cooling-optimized material properties. However, the resultant overcooling in cold night or winter times exacerbates the heating cost, especially in climates where heating dominates energy consumption. In this work, we approached thermal regulation from an all-season perspective by developing a mechanically flexible coating that adapts its thermal emittance to different ambient temperatures. The fabricated temperature-adaptive radiative coating (TARC) optimally absorbs the solar energy and automatically switches thermal emittance from 0.20 for ambient temperatures lower than 15°C to 0.90 for temperatures above 30°C, driven by a photonically amplified metal-insulator transition. Simulations show that this system outperforms existing roof coatings for energy saving in most climates, especially those with substantial seasonal variations.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2024

Diffusion-Model-Assisted Supervised Learning of Generative Models for Density Estimation

Here, we present a supervised learning framework of training generative models for density estimation. Generative models, including generative adversarial networks (GANs), normalizing flows, and variational auto-encoders (VAEs), are usually considered as unsupervised learning models, because labeled data are usually unavailable for training. Despite the success of the generative models, there are several issues with the unsupervised training, e.g., requirement of reversible architectures, vanishing gradients, and training instability. To enable supervised learning in generative models, we utilize the score-based diffusion model to generate labeled data. Unlike existing diffusion models that train neural networks to learn the score function, we develop a training-free score estimation method. This approach uses mini-batch-based Monte Carlo estimators to directly approximate the score function at any spatial-temporal location in solving an ordinary differential equation (ODE), corresponding to the reverse-time stochastic differential equation (SDE). This approach can offer both high accuracy and substantial time savings in neural network training. Once the labeled data are generated, we can train a simple, fully connected neural network to learn the generative model in the supervised manner. Compared with existing normalizing flow models, our method does not require the use of reversible neural networks and avoids the computation of the Jacobian matrix. Compared with existing diffusion models, our method does not need to solve the reverse-time SDE to generate new samples. As a result, the sampling efficiency is significantly improved. We demonstrate the performance of our method by applying it to a set of 2D datasets as well as real data from the University of California Irvine (UCI) repository.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗