Modeling framework to predict two-phase flow distribution in heat exchanger headers
Not Available
Mahvi, Allison J.↗
SEARCH · Engineering Papers
Results for “Predictive Modeling”
Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.
Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.
Development of an Uncertainty Quantification Predictive Chemical Reaction Model for Syngas Combustion
An automated data-centric infrastructure, Process Informatics Model (PrIMe), was applied to validation and optimization of a syngas combustion model. The Bound-to-Bound Data Collaboration (B2BDC) module of PrIMe was employed to discover the limits of parameter modifications based on uncertainty quantification (UQ) and consistency analysis of the model–data system and experimental data, including shock-tube ignition delay times and laminar flame speeds. Existing syngas reaction models are reviewed, and the selected kinetic data are described in detail. Empirical rules were developed and applied to evaluate the uncertainty bounds of the literature experimental data. Here, the initial H 2 /CO reaction model, assembled from 73 reactions and 17 species, was subjected to a B2BDC analysis. For this purpose, a dataset was constructed that included a total of 167 experimental targets and 55 active model parameters. Consistency analysis of the composed dataset revealed disagreement between models and data. Further analysis suggested that removing 45 experimental targets, 8 of which were self-inconsistent, would lead to a consistent dataset. This dataset was subjected to a correlation analysis, which highlights possible directions for parameter modification and model improvement. Additionally, several methods of parameter optimization were applied, some of them unique to the B2BDC framework. The optimized models demonstrated improved agreement with experiments compared to the initially assembled model, and their predictions for experiments not included in the initial dataset (i.e., a blind prediction) were investigated. The results demonstrate benefits of applying the B2BDC methodology for developing predictive kinetic models.
01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗
Final Report: Process Models of the Equilibrium Size & State of Organic/Inorganic Aerosols for the Development of Large Scale Atmospheric Models & the Analysis of Field Data
Our work addressed the following elements of the Call for Proposals: (i) “to improve the theoretical representation of aerosol processes studied in ASP laboratory or field studies”, (ii) “to enhance the incorporation of aerosol process information into modules suitable for large-scale or global atmospheric models”, and (iii) “provide systematic experimental validation of process model predictions ... using data from targeted laboratory and field experiments”. Achievements to the end of 2012 are described in four previous reports, and include: new models of densities and surface tensions of pure (single solute) and mixed aqueous solutions of typical aerosol composition under all atmospheric conditions (0 to 100% RH and T > 150 K); inclusion of these models into the widely used Extended Aerosol Inorganics model (E-AIM, http://www.aim.env.uea.ac.uk/aim/aim.php); the addition of vapor pressure calculators for organic compounds to the E-AIM website; the ability of include user-defined organic compounds and/or lumped surrogates in gas/aerosol partitioning calculations; the development of new equations to represent the properties of soluble aerosols over the entire concentration range (using methods based upon adsorption isotherms, and derived using statistical mechanics), including systems at close to zero RH. These results are described in publications 1-6 at the end of this report, and on the “News” page of the E-AIM website (http://www.aim.env.uea.ac.uk/aim/info/news.html). During 2012 and 2013 we have collaborated in a combined observation and lab-based study of the water uptake of the organic component of atmospheric aerosols (PI Gannet Hallar, of the Desert Research Institute). The aerosol samples were analyzed using several complementary techniques (GC/MS, FT-ICR MS, and ion chromatography) to produce a very complete organic “speciation” including both polar and non-polar compounds. Hygroscopic growth factors of the samples were measured, and we have just completed comparisons of the data with our process model predictions based upon the inorganic and organic composition of the samples.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
An AI-Assisted Approach to Represent Human Influence on Surface and Subsurface Hydrology
Focal Area(s): (2) Predictive modeling through the use of AI techniques and AI-derived model components: This white paper focuses on using artificial intelligence (AI) to discover connections across processes and scales and to represent those processes in predictive models of anthropogenic impacts on the water cycle.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Muon g-2 Experiment and SM
The anomalous magnetic moment of muon has been used as an indication of physics beyond the Standard Model. Fermilab Muon g-2 experiment has published the most precise measurement of the anomalous magnetic moment of muon with an uncertainty of 460 part-per-billion which showed 4.2 sigma discrepancy between the experiment average and the 2020 g-2 Theory Initiative Standard Model prediction. This talk will show the recent results from the Fermilab Muon g-2 experiment while also briefly cover the status of the Standard Model prediction on calculating the anomalous magnetic moment of muon.
72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
Search for new physics in final states with low transverse energy photon and missing transverse energy in proton-proton collisions at $\sqrt{s} = 8$ TeV
With the recent discovery of the Higgs boson at the Large Hadron Collider (LHC), the next set of goals for the Compact Muon Solenoid (CMS) experiment includes characterizing the newly discovered particle and probing for new physics beyond the Standard Model. Results from a search for new physics in the final state with a low transverse energy photon and missing transverse energy, using a data set corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 7.3/fb collected in proton-proton collisions at 8 TeV with the CMS detector is presented. Due to the large background rate for this final state, a novel strategy was used to collect this dataset from August through December of 2012. Such final state can arise from models involving dark matter production or exotic decays of the Higgs boson in low-scale supersymmetry breaking scenarios. In the absence of deviations from the Standard Model predictions, limits are set on the probability of an exotic decay of the Higgs boson. The phase space consisting of a photon with a transverse energy of at least 45 GeV and significant missing transverse energy was further examined in a model independent way by varying the selection requirements on the missing transverse energy and the transverse mass of the system. Upper limits at the 95% confidence level on production cross section of possible processes resulting in this final state were set. Additional and complementary results from a search for new physics in the final states containing a high-energy photon and missing transverse energy are also presented, using the data set corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 19.6/fb collected in proton-proton collisions at 8 TeV. In the absence of any significant deviation from the Standard Model predictions, improved limits are set on dark matter production and on the parameters of a model with large extra dimensions. Upper limits at a 95% confidence level on the production cross section of possible processes resulting in the final state with the photon transverse momentum greater than 145 GeV and missing transverse energy greater than 140 GeV were set.
72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
Evaluation of calibration efficacy under different levels of uncertainty
This study examines how calibration performs under different levels of uncertainty in model input data. It specifically assesses the efficacy of Bayesian calibration to enhance the reliability of EnergyPlus model predictions. A Bayesian approach can be used to update uncertain values of parameters, given measured energy-use data, and to quantify the associated uncertainty.We assess the efficacy of Bayesian calibration under a controlled virtual-reality setup, which enables rigorous validation of the accuracy of calibration results in terms of both calibrated parameter values and model predictions. Case studies demonstrate the performance of Bayesian calibration of base models developed from audit data with differing levels of detail in building design, usage, and operation.
97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
Comparison of Wind Farm Layout Optimization Results Using a Simple Wake Model and Gradient-Based Optimization to Large-Eddy Simulations: Preprint
Comparison of wind farm layout optimization results with simulations or wind tunnel tests is important because the models used during optimization use simplifying assumptions that can alter the design space. Some of the characteristics of the simple models may negatively influence the resulting layouts. In this paper we perform wind farm layout optimization and compare the resulting improvements to large eddy simulation (LES) results. We begin by describing the models used, including changes specific for use with gradient-based optimization. We then compare our version of the models with the original versions and large eddy simulation LES) data from previous publications. Using the models described, we performed gradient-based wind farm layout optimization, using exact gradients, and compare the results to LES simulations. The models predicted an improvement in annual energy production (AEP) of 7.4%, while the LES reported an AEP improvement of 9:9%. We conclude that the improvements found by optimizing with the simple models are not just an artifact of the models, but are real improvements.
17 WIND ENERGY↗
High-pressure oxidation of ethane
Here, ethane oxidation at intermediate temperatures and high pressures has been investigated in both a laminar flow reactor and a rapid compression machine (RCM). The flow-reactor measurements at 600–900 K and 20–100 bar showed an onset temperature for oxidation of ethane between 700 and 825 K, depending on pressure, stoichiometry, and residence time. Measured ignition delay times in the RCM at pressures of 10–80 bar and temperatures of 900–1025 K decreased with increasing pressure and/or temperature. A detailed chemical kinetic model was developed with particular attention to the peroxide chemistry. Rate constants for reactions on the C 2 H 5 O 2 potential energy surface were adopted from the recent theoretical work of Klippenstein. In the present work, the internal H-abstraction in CH 3 CH 2 OO to form CH 2 CH 2 OOH was treated in detail. Modeling predictions were in good agreement with data from the present work as well as results at elevated pressure from literature. The experimental results and the modeling predictions do not support occurrence of NTC behavior in ethane oxidation. Even at the high-pressure conditions of the present work where the C 2 H 5 + O 2 reaction yields ethylperoxyl rather than C 2 H 4 + HO 2 , the chain branching sequence CH 3 CH 2 OO → CH 2 CH 2 OOH → +O 2 OOCH 2 CH 2 OOH → branching is not competitive, because the internal H-atom transfer in CH 3 CH 2 OO to CH 2 CH 2 OOH is too slow compared to thermal dissociation to C 2 H 4 and HO 2 .
37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
Deformation behavior of CP-titanium under strain path changes: Experiment and crystal plasticity modeling
The deformation behavior of commercially pure rolled titanium subjected to strain path changes is studied using experiments and a crystal plasticity model. Four different loading combinations are performed at room temperature to study the activation of slip, twinning, de-twinning and double-twinning in hexagonal closed packed titanium. The strain paths considered are: rolling direction compression (RDC) followed by normal direction compression (NDC), RDC followed by transverse direction compression (TDC), NDC followed by RDC, and NDC followed by TDC. An EBSD-based analysis of the distribution of boundary misorientation angles before and after reload was developed to analyze the evolution of {$10\bar{1}2$} tensile and {$11\bar{2}2$} compression twins. This analysis supports the model results concerning the treatment of twin reorientation. A de-twinning and double-twinning model accounting for back stress effects, an important feature of strain path changes, is implemented within the framework of the visco-plastic self-consistent (VPSC) model along with a dislocation density (DD) based hardening scheme. In the model, plasticity is accommodated by prismatic $\langle$a$\rangle$, basal $\langle$a$\rangle$ and pyramidal $\langle$c+a$\rangle$ slip modes, and {$10\bar{1}2$} tensile and {$11\bar{2}2$} compression twinning modes. The VPSC model predicts the evolution of twinning, de-twinning and double-twinning processes for both tensile and compression twinning modes under strain path change. The model predicts macroscopic stress-strain response, texture evolution, and twin volume fraction that are in agreement with experimental observations. The evolution of texture is investigated in detail by separately analyzing the twinned domains, rather than the evolution of the global texture.
36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
Phonon Conduction in Silicon Nanobeam Labyrinths
Here we study single-crystalline silicon nanobeams having 470 nm width and 80 nm thickness cross section, where we produce tortuous thermal paths (i.e. labyrinths) by introducing slits to control the impact of the unobstructed “line-of-sight” (LOS) between the heat source and heat sink. The labyrinths range from straight nanobeams with a complete LOS along the entire length to nanobeams in which the LOS ranges from partially to entirely blocked by introducing slits, s = 95, 195, 245, 295 and 395 nm. The measured thermal conductivity of the samples decreases monotonically from ~47 W m -1 K -1 for straight beam to ~31 W m -1 K -1 for slit width of 395 nm. A model prediction through a combination of the Boltzmann transport equation and ab initio calculations shows an excellent agreement with the experimental data to within ~8%. The model prediction for the most tortuous path (s = 395 nm) is reduced by ~14% compared to a straight beam of equivalent cross section. This study suggests that LOS is an important metric for characterizing and interpreting phonon propagation in nanostructures.
42 ENGINEERING↗
High Temperature Irradiation Resistant Thermocouple Drift Model Application to Commercial Thermocouples
The Advance Sensors and Instrumentation fiscal year report on the direct application of the HTIR-TC drift model on other commercial thermocouples. The Type N and K thermocouples are useful in irradiation environments up to 1100°C (or 1290°C for short bursts and/or single use), but over temperature and high fluence can cause the TCs to drift. The HTIR-TC drift model predicts the end use environment of temperature and irradiation and the total time scale to show the amount of drift a thermocouple will undergo. The model predicts that HTIR-TCs at full temperature range and fluence of 10^21 N/cm^2 will exhibit a drift of under -1%. The type N and K TCs will see a drift of -0.5% at the same fluence, but temperatures below 1100°C. Above this temperature the Type N and K TCs quickly de-calibrate and will give erroneous temperatures measurements.
46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
Predicting the Extreme Ultraviolet Radiation Environment of Exoplanets around Low-mass Stars: The TRAPPIST-1 System
The high energy radiation environment around M dwarf stars strongly affects the characteristics of close-in exoplanet atmospheres, but these wavelengths are difficult to observe because of geocoronal and interstellar contamination. Due to these observational restrictions, a stellar atmosphere model may be used to compute the stellar extreme ultraviolet (EUV; 100–912 Å) spectrum. We construct semiempirical nonlocal thermodynamic equilibrium model spectra of the ultracool M8 star TRAPPIST-1 that span EUV to infrared wavelengths (100 Å-2.5 μm) using the atmosphere code PHOENIX. These upper atmosphere models contain prescriptions for the chromosphere and transition region and include newly added partial frequency redistribution capabilities. In the absence of broadband UV spectral observations, we constrain our models using Hubble Space Telescope Lyman α observations from TRAPPIST-1 and Galaxy Evolution Explorer UV photometric detections from a set of old M8 stars (>1 Gyr). We find that calibrating the models using both data sets separately yield similar far-ultraviolet and NUV fluxes, and EUV fluxes that range from (1.32–17.4) × 10 -14 ergs s -1 cm -2 . The findings from these models demonstrate that the EUV emission is very sensitive to the temperature structure in the transition region. Our lower activity models predict EUV fluxes similar to previously published estimates derived from semiempirical scaling relationships, while the highest activity model predicts EUV fluxes a factor of 10 higher. Results from this study support the idea that the TRAPPIST-1 habitable zone planets likely do not have much liquid water on their surfaces due to the elevated levels of high energy radiation emitted by the host star.
79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
Comprehensive model for predicting elemental composition of coal pyrolysis products
Large-scale coal combustion simulations depend highly on the accuracy and utility of the physical submodels used to describe the various physical behaviors of the system. Coal combustion simulations depend on the particle physics to predict product compositions, temperatures, energy outputs, and other useful information. The focus of this paper is to improve the accuracy of devolatilization submodels, to be used in conjunction with other particle physics models. Many large simulations today rely on inaccurate assumptions about particle compositions, including that the volatiles that are released during pyrolysis are of the same elemental composition as the char particle. Another common assumption is that the char particle can be approximated by pure carbon. These assumptions will lead to inaccuracies in the overall simulation. There are many factors that influence pyrolysis product composition, including parent coal composition, pyrolysis conditions (including particle temperature history and heating rate), and others. All of these factors are incorporated into the correlations to predict the elemental composition of the major pyrolysis products, including coal tar, char, and light gases.
01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗
Crystallization In High Level Waste (HLW) Glass Melters: Operational Experience From The Savannah River Site
processing strategy for the Hanford Tank Waste Treatment and Immobilization Plant (WTP). The basis of this alternative approach is an empirical model predicting the crystal accumulation in the WTP glass discharge riser and melter bottom as a function of glass composition, time, and temperature. When coupled with an associated operating limit (e.g., the maximum tolerable thickness of an accumulated layer of crystals), this model could then be integrated into the process control algorithms to formulate crystal tolerant high level waste (HLW) glasses targeting higher waste loadings while still meeting process related limits and melter lifetime expectancies. This report provides a review of the scaled melter testing that was completed in support of the Defense Waste Processing Facility (DWPF) melter. Testing with scaled melters provided the data to define the DWPF operating limits to avoid bulk (volume) crystallization in the un-agitated DWPF melter and provided the data to distinguish between spinels generated by K-3 refractory corrosion versus spinels that precipitated from the HLW glass melt pool. This report includes a review of the crystallization observed with the scaled melters and the full scale DWPF melters (DWPF Melter 1 and DWPF Melter 2). Examples of actual DWPF melter attainment with Melter 2 are given. The intent is to provide an overview of lessons learned, including some example data, that can be used to advance the development and implementation of an empirical model and operating limit for crystal accumulation for WTP. Operation of the first and second (current) DWPF melters has demonstrated that the strategy of using a liquidus temperature predictive model combined with a 100 °C offset from the normal melter operating temperature of 1150 °C (i.e., the predicted liquidus temperature (TL) of the glass must be 1050 °C or less) has been successful in preventing any detrimental accumulation of spinel in the DWPF melt pool, and spinel has not been observed in any of the pour stream glass samples. Spinel was observed at the bottom of DWPF Melter 1 as a result of K-3 refractory corrosion. Issues have occurred with accumulation of spinel in the pour spout during periods of operation at higher waste loadings. Given that both DWPF melters were or have been in operation for greater than 8 years, the service life of the melters has far exceeded design expectations. It is possible that the DWPF liquidus temperature approach is conservative, in that it may be possible to successfully operate the melter with a small degree of allowable crystallization in the glass. This could be a viable approach to increasing waste loading in the glass assuming that the crystals are suspended in the melt and swept out through the riser and pour spout. Additional study is needed, and development work for WTP might be leveraged to support a different operating limit for the DWPF. Several recommendations are made regarding considerations that need to be included as part of the WTP crystal tolerant strategy based on the DWPF development work and operational data reviewed here. These include: Identify and consider the impacts of potential heat sinks in the WTP melter and glass pouring system; Consider the contributions of refractory corrosion products, which may serve to nucleate additional crystals leading to further accumulation; Consider volatilization of components from the melt (e.g., boron, alkali, halides, etc.) and determine their impacts on glass crystallization behavior; Evaluate the impacts of glass REDuction/OXidation (REDOX) conditions and the distribution of temperature within the WTP melt pool and melter pour chamber on crystal accumulation rate; Consider the impact of precipitated crystals on glass viscosity; Consider the impact of an accumulated crystalline layer on thermal convection currents and bubbler effectiveness within the melt pool; Evaluate the impact of spinel accumulation on Joule heating of the WTP melt pool; and Include noble metals in glass melt experiments because of their potential to act as nucleation sites for spinel crystallization.
12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
Dynamic domain kinematic modelling for predicting interflow over leaky impeding layers
Traditional Boussinesq or kinematic simulations of interflow (i.e., lateral subsurface flow) assume no leakage through the impeding layer and require a no-flow boundary condition at the ridge top. However, recent analyses of many interflow-producing landscapes indicate that leaky impeding layers are common, that most interflow percolates well before reaching the toe slope, and therefore, the downslope contributing length is shorter than the hillslope length. In watersheds characterised by perched interflow over a low conductivity layer through permeable topsoil, interflow with percolation may be modelled with a kinematic wave model using a mobile upslope boundary condition defining the hillslope portion contributing interflow to valleys. Here, we developed and applied a dynamic interflow model to simulate interflow using a downslope travel distance concept such that only the active contributing length is modelled at any time. The model defines a variable active area based on the depth of the perched layer, the topographic slope and the ratio of the hydraulic conductivity of topsoil to that of the impeding layer. It incorporates a two-layer soil moisture accounting water balance analysis, a pedo-transfer function, and percolation and evaporation routines to predict interflow rates in continuous and event-based scenarios. We tested the modelling concept on two sets of data (2-year dataset of rainfall observations for the continuous simulation and a multi-day irrigation experiment for the event simulation) from a 121-m-long open interflow collection trench on an experimental hillslope at the Savannah River Site, South Carolina. The continuous model simulation partially represented the observed interflow hydrograph and perched water depth in the experimental hillslope with correlation coefficients of 0.85 and 0.35, respectively. Model performance improved significantly at event-scale analysis. The modelling approach realistically represents interflow dynamics in hillslopes with leaky impeding layers and can be integrated into catchment-scale hydrology models for more detailed hillslope process modelling.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
What Does The PAMELA Antiproton Spectrum Tell Us About Dark Matter?
Measurements of the cosmic ray antiproton spectrum can be used to search for contributions from annihilating dark matter and to constrain the dark matter annihilation cross section. Depending on the assumptions made regarding cosmic ray propagation in the Galaxy, such constraints can be quite stringent. We revisit this topic, utilizing a set of propagation models fit to the cosmic ray boron, carbon, oxygen and beryllium data. We derive upper limits on the dark matter annihilation cross section and find that when the cosmic ray propagation parameters are treated as nuisance parameters (as we argue is appropriate), the resulting limits are significantly less stringent than have been previously reported. We also note (as have several previous groups) that simple GALPROP-like diffusion-reacceleration models predict a spectrum of cosmic ray antiprotons that is in good agreement with PAMELA's observations above ~ 5 GeV, but that significantly underpredict the flux at lower energies. Although the complexity of modeling cosmic ray propagation at GeV-scale energies makes it difficult to determine the origin of this discrepancy, we consider the possibility that the excess antiprotons are the result of annihilating dark matter. Suggestively, we find that this excess is best fit for m(DM) ~ 35 GeV and σ v ~ 10(−)(26) cm(3)/s (to bbar b), in good agreement with the mass and cross section previously shown to be required to generate the gamma-ray excess observed from the Galactic Center.
72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
HOT PLASMA FROM SOLAR ACTIVE-REGION CORES: CONSTRAINTS FROM THE HINODE X-RAY TELESCOPE
Mechanisms invoked to heat the solar corona to millions of degrees kelvin involve either magnetic waves or magnetic reconnections. Turbulence in the convection zone produces MHD waves, which travel upward and dissipate. Photospheric motions continuously build up magnetic energy, which is released through magnetic reconnection. In this paper, we concentrate on hot non-flaring plasma with temperatures of 5 MK < T < 10 MK because it is one of the few observables for which wave and reconnection models make different predictions. Wave models predict no (or little) hot plasma, whereas reconnection models predict it, although in amounts that are challenging to detect with current instrumentation. We used data from the X-ray Telescope (XRT) and the Atmospheric Imaging Assembly (AIA). We requested a special XRT observing sequence, which cycled through the thickest XRT filter several times per hour so we could average these images and improve the signal-to-noise. We did differential emission measure (DEM) analysis using the time-averaged thick-filter data as well as all available channels from both the XRT and AIA for regions observed on 2014 December 11. Whereas our earlier work was only able to determine that plasma with a temperature greater than 5 MK was present , we are now able to find a well-constrained DEM distribution. We have therefore added a strong observational constraint that must be explained by any viable coronal heating model. Comparing state-of-the-art wave and reconnection model predictions, we can conclude that reconnection is heating the hot plasma in these active regions.
79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗