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This presentation is divided into the following sections: (1) photovoltaics (PV) current and future deployment; (2) the PV Fleet Performance Data Initiative; (3) fleet degradation trends; (4) high-efficiency module performance; (5) other system loss factors; and (6) conclusions.
This paper presents a novel bidding curve design algorithm tailored for hybrid power plants (HPPs) to participate in the wholesale electricity market. Utilizing forecasts for photovoltaic (PV) generation and available battery power, our algorithm strategically computes the bidding curve to maximize HPP profit while adeptly managing the inherent uncertainty associated with PV power generation. In addition, the introduction of the penalty cost in HPP bidding curves provides the system operator a tool to effectively manage the system-level uncertainty that caused by HPPs. Numerical analysis through Monte Carlo simulations confirms that our bidding curve methodology outperforms the benchmark across various scenarios.
The Solar Energy Innovation Network (SEIN) is a collaborative research program that supports multi-stakeholder teams in researching and sharing solutions to real-world challenges associated with solar energy adoption. The Breaking Barriers project was selected to participate in the Solar Energy Innovation Network, Round 2, and was led by Groundswell, a D.C.-based clean energy project developer. The Breaking Barriers team included Partnership for Southern Equity, Atlanta University Center campus facility managers and professors, the City of Atlanta's Neighborhood Planning Unit T, and Georgia Power Company. The project aimed to design and construct innovative urban energy resiliency hubs integrating microgrid technology, solar generation, and energy storage in Atlanta colleges and communities. The hubs will help these historically Black colleges and universities (HBCUs) and the energy-burdened broader community in West Atlanta be more resilient, in addition to informing new course curricula at Atlanta University Center campuses. With many possible options for the system's battery size, the Breaking Barriers team needed insight into the relationships between BESS size, economic performance, and resilience at Spelman College's Manley Center. These insights are crucial for entering procurement negotiations with project developers, establishing resilience capabilities that the HBCU campuses can plan around, and guiding the team's fundraising targets. This analysis includes estimates of PV and battery performance, costs, savings, and resilience for multiple battery sizes. In order to provide power during a grid outage, the resilient energy system also needs to be connected to the Manley Center in a safe and island-able manner (electrically isolated from the grid). Analysis of potential electrical configurations and estimated setup costs is key to successfully entering a required interconnection agreement with Georgia Power, as well as informing requests for engineering firms to construct the system. This analysis includes conceptual options and rough order of magnitude cost estimates for electrically interconnecting the resilient energy system to the Manley Center and the grid. The Breaking Barriers team used this analysis to select preferred system characteristics and design for the resilient energy system.
While Bhutan is abundant with clean energy hydropower, there are dry months in winter when solar energy could reduce expensive power inputs and bolster Bhutan's energy resilience and independence. As the country explores solar photovoltaic (PV) development as an option to achieve that goal, grid planners and renewable energy experts are partnering with the South Asia Group for Energy (SAGE) to determine the benefits and challenges of building solar energy systems in Bhutan.
Water and climate change pose many potential challenges to the electric power system. Substantial water is withdrawn every day to support thermoelectric power generating unit operations, and changes to water supply have the potential to affect generation dispatch. Climate change can accelerate growing demand for electricity, which can necessitate additional generating capacity, often in locations with limited water supply. Drought conditions also threaten thermoelectric power plant operations due to streamflow and reservoir levels dropping below intake structures, or water temperatures exceeding a power plants' permitted operating conditions. Here we explore how future climate change might influence decisions related to electricity capacity expansion planning in Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) using a multi-model framework. Specifically, water resource modeling is used to simulate climate impacts on the future water supply for thermoelectric and hydropower generation for four future climate projections. Separately, temperature impacts on electricity load are evaluated for these scenarios. These climate impacts are applied to five alternative electricity futures in an electricity capacity expansion model that projects future generation and transmission capacity additions in ERCOT. Results indicate that climate has a measurable influence on future generation and transmission capacity needs, with temperature-driven increases in peak and average load resulting in 5-15 GW additional generating capacity and up to 1 GW additional transmission capacity. Additional capacity is a diverse mix of PV, natural gas, and wind, depending on the makeup of economic, policy and technology assumptions. Climate impacts increase total system costs 2-5%, while the marginal cost of energy and emissions are not affected substantially by climate change effects.
Electromigration as a possible thin-film module failure mechanism was investigated using several specially made, fully aluminized thin-film photovoltaic (TF-PV) modules. The effect of electromigration, as determined experimentally by measuring increases in electrical resistance across scribe lines, can be expressed as the product of a damage function, which correlates degradation rate with operating conditions such as current density and temperature, and a susceptibility function, which is defined by module design parameters, particularly aluminum purity and the configuration of the intercell region. Experimental measurements and derived acceleration factors suggest that open-circuit failure resulting from electromigration should not be a serious problem in present state-of-the-art TF-PV modules. Nevertheless, significant intercell resistance increases can result from long-term electromigration exposure, especially in future high-efficiency modules. The problem can be alleviated, however, by appropriate metallization applications and/or proper design of the intercell region.
The team will advance the commercial readiness of behind-the-meter (BTM) energy storage (ES) systems by employing health-conscious controls that guarantee lifetime and optimize the ES system's value stream when integrated with onsite renewable energy generation. Specifically, the team will develop ES controls that increase the net present value (NPV) of photovoltaics (PV) by 50% in markets where net-metering policies are being replaced by variable electricity pricing structures. The team will also reduce the risk of achieving a 10-year ES warranty lifetime by at least one order of magnitude. The successful two-year project will develop the controls and system enabling Eaton to commercialize the technology by 2021. The developments achieved through this project may enable wide scale adoption of stationary energy storage benefitting the public.
Economy of scale is inherent in the microwave power transmission aperture/spot-size trade-off, resulting in a requirement for large space systems in the existing design concepts. Unfortunately, this large size means that the initial investment required before the first return, and the price of amortization of this initial investment, is a daunting (and perhaps insurmountable) barrier to economic viability. As the growth of ground-based solar power applications will fund the development of the PV technology required for space solar power and will also create the demand for space solar power by manufacturing a ready-made market, space power systems must be designed with an understanding that ground-based solar technologies will be implemented as a precursor to space-based solar. for low initial cost, (3) operation in synergy with ground solar systems, and (4) power production profile tailored to peak rates. A key to simplicity of design is to maximize the integration of the system components. Microwave, millimeter-wave, and laser systems are analyzed. A new solar power satellite design concept with no sun-tracking and no moving parts is proposed to reduce the required cost to initial operational capability.
Renewable microgrids are an integral part of the future sustainable energy system. This chapter focuses on the role of renewable energy-based microgrids in the electricity system transformation. It is seen as a foundation that complements large-scale generation plants and high-voltage transmission lines by providing additional flexibility and resilience. This flexibility and resilience are crucial for balancing the energy system and ensuring its long-term sustainability, given the changing supply and demand patterns due to rooftop solar photovoltaics (PV), battery storage, electric mobility, and heat pumps. It is also an opportunity for residential and commercial consumers to become active participants in the energy market. Innovation, new technologies and business models will act as the key enabler for this transformation. The regulatory restructuring of the energy market will be crucial for successful integration of prosumers and aggregated energy communities. The chapter presents the vision of a sustainable, decentralized, and digitized energy future including market potential, most innovative case study projects and start-up companies, and the shifts needed in the regulatory landscape.
The growing need for sustainable energy solutions in coastal areas necessitates the development of integrated systems that leverage abundant marine resources. In this study, a standalone Marine Energy Supported Multi-Energy System (MRE-MES) is designed for sustainable coastal community development, utilizing renewable marine resources, including offshore wind, wave, and solar energy, to address the energy needs of electricity, heat, freshwater, and hydrogen. The proposed MRE-MES incorporates a co-optimization model that simultaneously balances capacity planning and operational efficiency to minimize costs and environmental impacts. The system is tested under different renewable energy penetration levels and demand uncertainties, using a two-stage stochastic programming to account for variability in renewable resources and consumption needs. The experimental results indicate that in the optimal system capacity configuration, the percentage of total renewable energy generation is around 80 %, with or without capacity limitation constraints on PV, water tank, and hydrogen storage. Compared to the worst-case scenario in Monte Carlo experiments, two-stage stochastic optimization results in a more robust decision that effectively mitigates the risks posed by future uncertain demand conditions. In conclusion, the findings highlight the viability of marine energy for providing a resilient, comprehensive energy solution to coastal communities.
To totally decarbonize global electrical systems using photovoltaics (PVs) in the 2050–2060 decade, the world would need to install 63.4 TW of PV. This article models and explores how a PV manufacturing ramp‐up trajectory toward this goal can be achieved while assuming that investors continue to make financially rational decisions avoiding stranded production assets and therefore protecting their return on investment. The model effectively exploits experience curve benefits in both the scaling of the manufacturing process and continued progress in product design technologies. The scale‐up challenge is amplified because trajectories that achieve this goal require an unprecedented ramp‐up of production capacity over just two decades, followed by relatively modest demand to maintain the installed base and support continued population growth. It is demonstrated that sustainable ramp‐up of manufacturing is indeed possible and shown that the deployment of the requisite manufacturing capacity can be accelerated and accomplished at lower total capital cost by the introduction of disruptive technologies that have lower capital intensity, embedded energy, or higher efficiency.
This repository contains code and data for performing a siting analysis of long-duration energy storage (LDES) in the 5-bus and RTS systems using the Sienna suite developed by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory for production cost modeling (PCM). This analysis involves moving the LDES component to different buses in the system, running a simulation, and considering the production cost of the simulation. Different system configurations are also analyzed with these scripts (such as moving load or renewable dispatch generators to different buses) to observe the impacts the system configuration has on optimal siting. This repository contains three sub directories discussed below. Both the 5-bus and RTS systems have two different initial configurations for the renewable energy components in them, one that is predominantly PV-driven and one that is predominantly wind-driven. Sienna suite can be found here: https://github.com/NREL-Sienna
Concentrating solar thermal (CST) technology has significant potential mainly due to its dispatchability and low cost of storage. However, to compete with other sources, including utility-scale solar PV, its final cost (cents/kWh) still needs to be lowered. Cost reduction can be achieved by improving the system level efficiency of the CST plants through the deployment of advanced power cycles, which operate at high temperatures of ~700°C. However, optical, and thermal losses pose a major challenge to the efficiency of such CST systems. The overall aim of this project is to investigate and de-risk a linear solar receiver concept called an Aerogel Insulated Receiver (AIR) that generates high temperatures (up to 700°C) at a low solar concentration ratio (<100) and with a high collection efficiency (optical × receiver). Our prior work has demonstrated the thermal stability1 and optical and heat-insulating properties2,3 of transparent aerogel insulation at a one-inch scale. The focus of this work is on (1) co-optimization of the geometry of the aerogel tile and receiver enclosure to fit a standard parabolic collector (PTC), (2) scale-up of aerogels into 4-inch tiles while preserving key properties, (3) experimental measurement of receiver heat loss (W/m) in a >70-cm test stand and validation of anticipated receiver performance at high temperatures. Regarding (1), appropriate optical and thermal models for a parabolic trough receiver (PTR) are developed and validated. The geometry of the aerogels and the receiver enclosure are co-optimized to maximize the collection efficiency. The model predicts a 54% collection efficiency at 700°C for an AIR design based on flat aerogels. By combining the collection efficiency with the power block efficiency of supercritical CO 2 cycles, we predict >10% improvements in peak plant efficiency relative to existing line-focusing CST systems. The application of curved plasmonic aerogels is predicted to further increase the collection efficiency to 64%. Regarding (2), we demonstrate the successful development of 6-inch-long refractory aerogel tiles with optical, thermal, and stability characteristics consistent with our prior work. This scale-up requires a transition to a larger ALD station and modifying the ALD process variables such as exposure time and the number of precursor doses. Regarding (3), we design and develop an AIR test stand measuring 3 feet in length. Heat loss performance analysis is carried out using the test stand. The results indicate that aerogel insulation can significantly reduce receiver thermal losses at the high operating temperatures required for next-generation PTRs. The experimental results agree with the heat loss performance predicted by our receiver model. Lastly, we conducted preliminary failure mode and effects (FMEA) and techno-economic (TEA) analyses to identify failure mitigation strategies and commercial opportunities, respectively. Overall, this project identifies key opportunities and challenges in deploying aerogel insulating receivers in next-generation line-focusing CST technologies.
Strategy support to determine the best approach to deploy solar technologies and commercially viable heat pump projects across their existing Rural Energy Partners solar project development support channel.
Before large power systems for manned exploration of the Martian surface can be put into place, it must be determined how their performance will be affected by the Martian environment. A program was started to assess the impact of these environmental factors on power system performance, and to find ways to mitigate the degradative effects. The effects of blowing dust on photovoltaic (PV) and radiator surfaces is studied. Extensive use was made of the Martian Surface Wind Tunnel (MARSWIT) located at NASA-Ames to simulate Martian winds. Two basic types of experiment sets were run. In the first, the threshold clearing velocity of dust deposited on PV coverslip material and high emissivity radiator materials in clear Martian-like winds was examined. In the second, dust was dropped near the inlet of the wind tunnel and the winds were allowed to carry the dust past the samples, simulating a dust storm. A summary of results is given.
Mixing and cross-vortex mass transport along isentropic surfaces in the lower stratosphere are investigated with a 'contour advection' technique and a semi-Lagrangian transport model for the Antarctic winter of 1993 using analyzed winds from the United Kingdom Meteorological Office data assimilation system. Results from the 'contour advection' technique show that at the vortex edge there exists a potential vorticity (PV) contour that has the smallest lengthening rate. This PV contour is referred to as the 'line of separation' because it essentially separates the inner and outer vortex. The average e-folding time for the lengthening of the 'line of separation' increases monotonically with altitude, ranging from about 7 days on the 350 K isentropic surface to about 105 days on the 500 K isentropic surface. The results also suggest the existence of a transition layer around the 400 K isentropic surface, above which the vortex is nearly completely isolated from the midlatitudes and below which the vortex is less isolated. Results from a semi-Lagrangian transport model with an idealized tracer initially inside the inner vortex show that at 425 K and above virtually no tracer is transported out of the vortex during a 40-day integration starting from July 21, 1993. At 400 K and below a small amount of the tracer is transported out of the vortex while the bulk of the tracer remains confined within the inner vortex.
A solar powered vapor compression refrigeration system is made practicable with thermal storage and novel control techniques. In one embodiment, the refrigeration system includes a photovoltaic panel, a variable speed compressor, an insulated enclosure. and a thermal reservoir. The photovoltaic (PV) panel converts sunlight into DC (direct current) electrical power. The DC electrical power drives a compressor that circulates refrigerant through a vapor compression refrigeration loop to extract heat from the insulated enclosure. The thermal reservoir is situated inside the insulated enclosure and includes a phase change material. As heat is extracted from the insulated enclosure, the phase change material is frozen, and thereafter is able to act as a heat sink to maintain the temperature of the insulated enclosure in the absence of sunlight. The conversion of solar power into stored thermal energy is optimized by a compressor control method that effectively maximizes the compressor's usage of available energy. A capacitor is provided to smooth the power voltage and to provide additional current during compressor start-up. A controller monitors the rate of change of the smoothed power voltage to determine if the compressor is operating below or above the available power maximum, and adjusts the compressor speed accordingly. In this manner, the compressor operation is adjusted to convert substantially all available solar power into stored thermal energy.
A solar powered vapor compression refrigeration system is made practicable with thermal storage and novel control techniques. In one embodiment, the refrigeration system includes a photovoltaic panel, a variable speed compressor, an insulated enclosure, and a thermal reservoir. The photovoltaic (PV) panel converts sunlight into DC (direct current) electrical power. The DC electrical power drives a compressor that circulates refrigerant through a vapor compression refrigeration loop to extract heat from the insulated enclosure. The thermal reservoir is situated inside the insulated enclosure and includes a phase change material. As heat is extracted from the insulated enclosure, the phase change material is frozen, and thereafter is able to act as a heat sink to maintain the temperature of the insulated enclosure in the absence of sunlight. The conversion of solar power into stored thermal energy is optimized by a compressor control method that effectively maximizes the compressor's usage of available energy. A capacitor is provided to smooth the power voltage and to provide additional current during compressor start-up. A controller monitors the rate of change of the smoothed power voltage to determine if the compressor is operating below or above the available power maximum, and adjusts the compressor speed accordingly. In this manner, the compressor operation is adjusted to convert substantially all available solar power into stored thermal energy.