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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 1,387 records · Page 77
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2020

The influence of packing structure and interparticle forces on ultrasound transmission in granular media

Ultrasound propagation through externally stressed, disordered granular materials was experimentally and numerically investigated. Experiments employed piezoelectric transducers to excite and detect longitudinal ultrasound waves of various frequencies traveling through randomly packed sapphire spheres subjected to uniaxial compression. The experiments featured in situ X-ray tomography and diffraction measurements of contact fabric, particle kinematics, average per-particle stress tensors, and interparticle forces. The experimentally measured packing configuration and inferred interparticle forces at different sample stresses were used to construct spring networks characterized by Hessian and damping matrices. The ultrasound responses of these network were simulated to investigate the origins of wave velocity, acoustic paths, dispersion, and attenuation. Results revealed that both packing structure and interparticle force heterogeneity played an important role in controlling wave velocity and dispersion, while packing structure alone quantitatively explained most of the observed wave attenuation. This research provides insight into time- and frequency-domain features of wave propagation in randomly packed granular materials, shedding light on the fundamental mechanisms controlling wave velocities, dispersion, and attenuation in such systems.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2024

Evaluating the impact of peat soils and snow schemes on simulated active layer thickness at pan-Arctic permafrost sites

Abstract Permafrost stability is significantly influenced by the thermal buffering effects of snow and active-layer peat soils. In the warm season, peat soils act as a barrier to downward heat transfer mainly due to their low thermal conductivity. In the cold season, the snowpack serves as a thermal insulator, retarding the release of heat from the soil to the atmosphere. Currently, many global land models overestimate permafrost soil temperature and active layer thickness (ALT), partially due to inaccurate representations of soil organic matter (SOM) density profiles and snow thermal insulation. In this study, we evaluated the impacts of SOM and snow schemes on ALT simulations at pan-Arctic permafrost sites using the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) land model (ELM). We conducted simulations at the Circumpolar Active Layer Monitoring (CALM) sites across the pan-Arctic domain. We improved ELM-simulated site-level ALT using a knowledge-based hierarchical optimization procedure and examined the effects of precipitation-phase partitioning methods (PPMs), snow compaction schemes, and snow thermal conductivity schemes on simulated snow depth, soil temperature, ALT, and CO 2 fluxes. Results showed that the optimized ELM significantly improved agreement with observed ALT (e.g. RMSE decreased from 0.83 m to 0.15 m). Our sensitivity analysis revealed that snow-related schemes significantly impact simulated snow thermal insulation levels, soil temperature, and ALT. For example, one of the commonly used snow thermal conductivity schemes (quadratic Sturm or SturmQua) generally produced warmer soil temperatures and larger ALT compared to the other two tested schemes. The SturmQua scheme also amplified the model’s sensitivity to PPMs and predicted deeper ALTs than the other two snow schemes under both current and future climates. The study highlights the importance of accurately representing snow-related processes and peat soils in land models to enhance permafrost dynamics simulations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Signature of hadron-quark crossover in binary-neutron-star mergers

Here, we study observational signatures of the hadron-quark crossover in binary-neutron-star mergers by numerical-relativity simulations with various mass configurations. We employ two equations of state (EoSs) for matter consistent with inference from the observational data. In the crossover scenario the EoS is softened in a density realized in binary-neutron-star mergers and is smoothly continued to quark matter. In the phase transition scenario without crossover, the EoS remains stiff and a first-order phase transition takes place in a density out of reach of mergers. A GW170817-like system forms a remnant massive neutron star in both scenarios, and it collapses into a black hole only in the crossover scenario due to the softening while gravitational-wave emission is strong. This difference is clearly reflected in the sudden shutdown of gravitational waves. For a given EoS, the lifetime of the merger remnant is determined primarily by the total mass of the system. Identifying these features in a variety of future events with the next generation of ground-based gravitational-wave detectors will enable us to clarify details of hadron-quark transition. The mass of the accretion disk surrounding the remnant black hole is affected not only by the lifetime of the remnant but also by the mass ratio of the system. Electromagnetic emission associated with the disk outflow will also be useful for detailed investigation of the hadron-quark transition.

QCD phase transitions↗
DOE OSTI2022

Learning to Scale the Summit: AI for Science on a Leadership Supercomputer

The Summit system at Oak Ridge National Lab-oratory (ORNL) has been the world's top AI for science su-percomputer for several years, ranked world's fastest computer at its 2018 launch and currently top system in the US and #2 on the TOP5OO list. Summit's purposeful design to handle both conventional modeling and simulation science and emerging AI workloads has made it a leading destination for AI-powered computational science. We report here on AI for science usage on Summit near the midpoint of its lifespan. We review AI usage across the many science projects that have used Summit. We then examine in detail a set of applications scaling AI to full system as well as projects implementing AI-coordinated science discovery workflows on Summit. Finally, we offer some observations regarding the future of advancing scientific knowledge and understanding via AI, especially in the context of leadership-class scientific computing.

Joubert, Wayne↗
DOE OSTI2024

Comparison of Full-Field and Integrated CFD Convergence Based on Richardson Extrapolation

This work investigated the usefulness of Richardson extrapolation--based discretization error estimates across all points in a solution field to produce a spatial convergence field for a computational fluid dynamics (CFD) simulation. The presented work used previously developed methods for Richardson extrapolation to compute the convergence orders of a CFD simulation at all points of the base (coarsest) mesh solution. Three test cases of increasing complexity were considered: Poiseuille flow, incompressible flow around a sharp corner, and transonic flow over an RAE 2822 airfoil. These test cases highlighted the potential of the proposed method to identify error sources and their relation to the model system-response-quantity convergence orders. However, these test cases also revealed the immaturity of the proposed method stemming from the unreliability of computing observed convergence orders at single points. Nonetheless, the test cases highlighted that the observed convergence orders allow for a more accurate diagnosis of constructive and destructive error transport than mesh pair error estimates. In the long run, the proposed method can be a tool for developing efficient and advanced error management strategies like adaptive mesh refinement.

Weinmeister, Justin↗
DOE OSTI2025

Biophysical model of eelgrass and water quality in Coos Bay, OR shows greater mitigation potential for ocean acidification than hypoxia

Seagrass beds provide important ecosystem services and are valued, in part, for their potential to mediate stressors such as ocean acidification and hypoxia (OAH) for sensitive species. However, the susceptibility of seagrasses to anthropogenic impacts and recent declines motivate the need to better understand the drivers of seagrass and the water quality consequences that occur with variation in seagrass abundance. To meet this need, we leveraged existing monitoring data (water quality and seagrass), hydrodynamic circulation model, and biogeochemical model framework with seagrass submodel, to produce a biophysical model of Coos Bay estuary, Oregon, U.S. The model includes biogeochemical processes involving water quality, plankton, seagrass, and sediment-water interactions. Ecosystem models like this are useful for evaluating complex estuarine systems because they allow us to extend our understanding of system dynamics beyond existing observations and perform experiments to identify the processes driving observed patterns. We used the biophysical model of Coos Bay to evaluate the dynamics of water quality and native eelgrass (Zostera marina) under three eelgrass abundance scenarios (zero eelgrass, current extent, and maximum observed extent) to elucidate the relationship between eelgrass and OAH. Including eelgrass in the Coos Bay model produced results that more closely resembled water quality observations - dissolved oxygen (DO) and pH were more dynamic in simulations with eelgrass, often having both higher highs and lower lows. While there were some areas of the estuary where DO improved with the addition of eelgrass to the model there was overall a small net increase in harmful DO conditions (based on a salmon physiological threshold). In contrast, ocean acidification conditions, pH and calcium carbonate saturation state for aragonite (Ω), were improved (based on oyster requirements) with the addition of eelgrass - although the magnitude of improvement differed seasonally and spatially. Our new model represents a useful tool - one which accounts for and controls the relevant physical and biogeochemical processes - to evaluate conditions that confer resilience or enhance vulnerability to OAH in an important Pacific Northwest coastal estuary and results can inform the OAH-related dynamics occurring in other eastern boundary current estuaries.

FVCOM-ICM↗
DOE OSTI2022

Molecular Dynamics Simulation and Cryo-Electron Microscopy Investigation of AOT Surfactant Structure at the Hydrated Mica Surface

Structural properties of the anionic surfactant dioctyl sodium sulfosuccinate (AOT or Aerosol-OT) adsorbed on the mica surface were investigated by molecular dynamics simulation, including the effect of surface loading in the presence of monovalent and divalent cations. The simulations confirmed recent neutron reflectivity experiments that revealed the binding of anionic surfactant to the negatively charged surface via adsorbed cations. At low loading, cylindrical micelles formed on the surface, with sulfate head groups bound to the surface by water molecules or adsorbed cations. Cation bridging was observed in the presence of weakly hydrating monovalent cations, while sulfate groups interacted with strongly hydrating divalent cations through water bridges. The adsorbed micelle structure was confirmed experimentally with cryogenic electronic microscopy, which revealed micelles approximately 2 nm in diameter at the basal surface. At higher AOT loading, the simulations reveal adsorbed bilayers with similar surface binding mechanisms. Adsorbed micelles were slightly thicker (2.2–3.0 nm) than the corresponding bilayers (2.0–2.4 nm). Upon heating the low loading systems from 300 K to 350 K, the adsorbed micelles transformed to a more planar configuration resembling bilayers. The driving force for this transition is an increase in the number of sulfate head groups interacting directly with adsorbed cations.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Global evaluation of terrestrial biogeochemistry in the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) and the role of the phosphorus cycle in the historical terrestrial carbon balance

Abstract. The importance of carbon (C)–nutrient interactions to the prediction of future C uptake has long been recognized. The Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) land model (ELM) version 1 is one of the few land surface models that include both N and P cycling and limitation (ELMv1-CNP). Here we provide a global-scale evaluation of ELMv1-CNP using the International Land Model Benchmarking (ILAMB) system. We show that ELMv1-CNP produces realistic estimates of present-day carbon pools and fluxes. Compared to simulations with optimal P availability, simulations with ELMv1-CNP produce better performance, particularly for simulated biomass, leaf area index (LAI), and global net C balance. We also show ELMv1-CNP-simulated N and P cycling is in good agreement with data-driven estimates. We compared the ELMv1-CNP-simulated response to CO2 enrichment with meta-analysis of observations from similar manipulation experiments. We show that ELMv1-CNP is able to capture the field-observed responses for photosynthesis, growth, and LAI. We investigated the role of P limitation in the historical balance and show that global C sources and sinks are significantly affected by P limitation, as the historical CO2 fertilization effect was reduced by 20 % and C emission due to land use and land cover change was 11 % lower when P limitation was considered. Our simulations suggest that the introduction of P cycle dynamics and C–N–P coupling will likely have substantial consequences for projections of future C uptake.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Enhancement of Distribution System State Estimation Using Pruned Physics-Aware Neural Networks: Preprint

Realizing complete observability in the three-phase distribution system remains a challenge that hinders the implementation of classical state estimation algorithms. In this paper, a new method so-called pruned physics-aware neural network (P2N2) is developed to improve the voltage estimation accuracy in the distribution system. The method relies on the physical grid topology, which is used to design the connections between different hidden layers of a neural network model. To verify the proposed method, a numerical simulation based on one-year smart meter data of load consumptions for threephase power flow is developed to generate the measurement and voltage state data. The IEEE 123 node system is selected as the test network to benchmark the proposed algorithm against the classical weighted least squares (WLS). Numerical results show that P2N2 outperforms WLS, in terms of data redundancy and estimation accuracy.

distribution systems state estimation↗
DOE OSTI2021

Design Study for Bio-Oil Production from Biomass Using a Dual Fluidized-Bed Reactor

To evaluate the re-design and reconfiguration of a dual-fluidized bed (DFB) gasification system into a recirculating pyrolysis reactor, Computation Fluid Dynamic (CFD) simulations of the system were conducted. The Barracuda Virtual Reactor® computational particle fluid dynamic code was used to perform simulations of the pyrolysis process. Modeling of the chemical reaction kinetics for both gas phase and solid particle phase were included. The recirculating pyrolysis reactor shown in Fig. 1a is based on a bubbling-bed biomass pyrolyzer and a riser combustor to convert the remaining char. The operational differences in the re-configuration of the DFB gasification system into a recirculating pyrolysis system for the production of bio-oil are (1) replacement of a low-surface area inert bed material with a high-surface-area bed material that has acidic properties to provide catalytic activity for the production of bio-oil with reduced oxygen content, (2) lower temperature and residence time for bio-oil production from pyrolysis, (3) replacement of the fluidization gas in the bubbling bed pyrolyzer from steam to nitrogen, and (4) the reduction of pyrolyzer freeboard volume. The bed material used for catalytic pyrolysis is Sasol 300 (300-micron dia., bulk density 0.94 kg/l, and surface area 130 m2/g) and is a theta-alumina with mild acidity. This is in comparison with previous standard bed material Carbo HSP (430-micron dia., bulk density 2.01 kg/l, and surface area 0.03 m2/g) used for gasification. For bio-oil production, pyrolysis in the bubbling bed requires temperatures in the range of 550 C in comparison with gasification temperatures near 850 C. To attain this lower temperature requires management of the energy mass balances, with control of the bed material recirculation rate between bubbling bed pyrolyzer and riser combustor, the introduction of a nitrogen purge in the pyrolyzer, and adjusting the pressure balance between the two vessels. To extract bio-oil from the pyrolysis reactor with a snorkel, two different freeboard configurations were evaluated. In Fig. 1 b the existing high freeboard configuration is shown and in Fig. 1 c the reduced freeboard design is presented. The introduction of a nitrogen purge for the high free board configuration provided the highest bio-oil production from the CFD simulations. To decrease the bed-material circulation rate, primary and secondary air on the combustor side were reduced, and the pressure on the combustor was slightly increased. A portion of the biomass and bio-oil was observed to be transported to the combustor, leading to a smaller pyrolysis yield. The control of the pyrolyzer temperature is performed by controlling the circulation rate. Good fluidization of the bubbling bed and cascade PID control are required to keep the temperature from oscillating due to large time delay experienced when changing primary and secondary air. (a) (b) (c) Figure 1. (a) Dual Fluidized Bed pyrolysis system configuration, (b) mole fraction of nonpolar biooil in high freeboard configuration, and (c) mole fraction of nonpolar bio-oil in low freeboard configuration with nitrogen purge introduced in both configurations.

BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES,BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Simulating cosmological evolution by quantum quench of an atomic Bose-Einstein condensate

In cosmological evolution, it is the homogeneous scalar field (inflaton) that drives the universe to expand isotropically and to generate standard model particles. However, to simulate cosmology, atomic gas research has focused on the dynamics of Bose-Einstein condensates (BEC) with continuously applied forces. In this paper we argue that a complementary approach needs also to be pursued; we thus consider the analog BEC experiments in a nondriven and naturally closed atomic system. We implement this using a BEC in an optical lattice which, after a quench, freely transitions from an unstable to a stable state. Furthermore, this dynamical evolution displays the counterpart “preheating,” “reheating,” and “thermalization” phases of cosmology. Importantly, our studies of these analog processes yield tractable analytic models. Additionally, of great utility to the cold atom community, such understanding elucidates the dynamics of nonadiabatic condensate preparation. Indeed, the dynamical processes discussed here are generic and in future cold atom reequilibration experiments it will be important to observe both the preheating stage, corresponding to a fragmented condensate, and the reheating stage, corresponding to a particle cloud.

74 ATOMIC AND MOLECULAR PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Multiscale electro-chemo-mechanical model of high-capacity amorphous silicon anode material in sodium-ion batteries

The growing interest in sodium-ion batteries (SIBs) is fueled by their abundant resources and environmentally friendly nature, with amorphous silicon (a-Si) emerging as a promising anode material for enhancing capacity. However, the key challenge lies in sustaining reversible capacity during cycling. Here, in this work, we developed a multiscale electrochemical model incorporating an a-Si anode to elucidate the performance parameters of SIBs. Additionally, we integrated an electro-chemo-mechanical model at the particle level to capture stress generation, an essential factor in the degradation of high-capacity electrodes. Unlike existing models, our approach accounts for large-deformation chemo-mechanics at the particle scale and includes simulations under varying charge rates to explore multiscale behavior. The results reveal that coupled sodiation significantly prolongs complete cycling times and influences discharge dynamics, indicating that neglecting this coupling leads to an underestimation of actual capacity. Furthermore, we observed pronounced polarization effects at higher charge rates, resulting in heterogeneous stress distributions across the anode. With the identification of critical failure parameters for both active particles and binder materials, offering novel insights for mitigating degradation in high-capacity electrode systems.

Amorphous silicon anode↗
DOE OSTI2025

Impact of dynamics, entanglement and Markovian noise on the fidelity of few-qubit digital quantum simulation

Quantum algorithms have been proposed to accelerate the simulation of the chaotic dynamical systems that are ubiquitous in the physics of plasmas. Quantum computers without error correction might even use noise to their advantage to calculate the Lyapunov exponent by measuring the Loschmidt echo fidelity decay rate. For the first time, digital Hamiltonian simulations of the quantum sawtooth map, performed on the IBM-Q quantum hardware platform, show that the fidelity decay rate of a digital quantum simulation increases during the transition from dynamical localization to chaotic diffusion in the map. The observed error per CNOT gate increases by $1.5{\times }$ as the dynamics varies from localized to diffusive, while only changing the phases of virtual RZ gates and keeping the overall gate count constant. A gate-based Lindblad noise model that captures the effective change in relaxation and dephasing errors during gate operation qualitatively explains the effect of dynamics on fidelity as being due to the localization and entanglement of the states created. Specifically, highly delocalized states that are entangled with random phases show an increased sensitivity to dephasing and, on average, a similar sensitivity to relaxation as localized states. In contrast, delocalized unentangled states show an increased sensitivity to dephasing but a lower sensitivity to relaxation. This gate-based Lindblad model is shown to be a useful benchmarking tool by estimating the effective Lindblad coherence times during CNOT gates and finding a consistent $2\unicode{x2013}3{\times }$ shorter $T_2$ time than reported for idle qubits. Thus, the interplay of the dynamics of a simulation with the noise processes that are active can strongly influence the overall fidelity decay rate.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2020

Fifty Years of Research on the Madden-Julian Oscillation: Recent Progress, Challenges, and Perspectives

The Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), first discovered by Madden and Julian in 1971, is a prominent tropical phenomenon with a typical period of 30–60 days and featured by a large-scale envelope of cloud clusters and rain systems moving eastward along the equator. The MJO significantly influences not only intense tropical rainstorms, such as hurricanes, but also extreme weather over the middle to high latitudes. Skillful prediction of the MJO several weeks ahead, therefore, will be greatly valuable for disaster mitigation purposes. However, many present-day climate models have great difficulty in realistically simulating the MJO for reasons that are not well understood. This article provides a comprehensive review of the recent progress in the observational, modeling, and theoretical study of the MJO, with a particular focus on the most recent decade. Several future research directions are also suggested to further advance our understanding and prediction capability of the MJO.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Towards a Unified Setup to Simulate Mid‐Latitude and Tropical Mesoscale Convective Systems at Kilometer‐Scales

Abstract Mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) are the main source of precipitation in the tropics and parts of the mid‐latitudes and are responsible for high‐impact weather worldwide. Studies showed that deficiencies in simulating mid‐latitude MCSs in state‐of‐the‐art climate models can be alleviated by kilometer‐scale models. However, whether these models can also improve tropical MCSs and whether we can find model settings that perform well in both regions is understudied. We take advantage of high‐quality MCS observations collected over the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) facilities in the US Southern Great Plains (SGP) and the Amazon basin near Manaus (MAO) to evaluate a perturbed physics ensemble of simulated MCSs with 4 km horizontal grid spacing. A new model evaluation method is developed that enables to distinguish biases stemming from spatiotemporal displacements of MCSs from biases in their reflectivity and cloud shield. Amazon MCSs are similarly well simulated across these evaluation metrics than SGP MCSs despite the challenges anticipated from weaker large‐scale forcing in the tropics. Generally, SGP MCSs are more sensitive to the choice of model microphysics, while Amazon cases are more sensitive to the planetary boundary layer (PBL) scheme. Although our tested model physics combinations had strengths and weaknesses, combinations that performed well for SGP simulations result in worse results in the Amazon basin and vice versa. However, we identified model settings that perform well at both locations, which include the Thompson and Morrison microphysics coupled with the Yonsei University (YSU) PBL scheme and the Thompson scheme coupled with the Mellor‐Yamada‐Janjic PBL scheme.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Equation‐Free Surrogate Modeling of Geophysical Flows at the Intersection of Machine Learning and Data Assimilation

Abstract There is a growing interest in developing data‐driven reduced‐order models for atmospheric and oceanic flows that are trained on data obtained either from high‐resolution simulations or satellite observations. The data‐driven models are non‐intrusive in nature and offer significant computational savings compared to large‐scale numerical models. These low‐dimensional models can be utilized to reduce the computational burden of generating forecasts and estimating model uncertainty without losing the key information needed for data assimilation (DA) to produce accurate state estimates. This paper aims at exploring an equation‐free surrogate modeling approach at the intersection of machine learning and DA in Earth system modeling. With this objective, we introduce an end‐to‐end non‐intrusive reduced‐order modeling (NIROM) framework equipped with contributions in modal decomposition, time series prediction, optimal sensor placement, and sequential DA. Specifically, we use proper orthogonal decomposition (POD) to identify the dominant structures of the flow, and a long short‐term memory network to model the dynamics of the POD modes. The NIROM is integrated within the deterministic ensemble Kalman filter (DEnKF) to incorporate sparse and noisy observations at optimal sensor locations obtained through QR pivoting. The feasibility and the benefit of the proposed framework are demonstrated for the NOAA Optimum Interpolation Sea Surface Temperature (SST) V2 data set. Our results indicate that the NIROM is stable for long‐term forecasting and can model dynamics of SST with a reasonable level of accuracy. Furthermore, the prediction accuracy of the NIROM gets improved by almost one order of magnitude by the DEnKF algorithm.

Pawar, Suraj↗
DOE OSTI2023

Learning effective SDEs from Brownian dynamic simulations of colloidal particles

We construct a reduced, data-driven, parameter dependent effective stochastic differential equation (eSDE) for electric-field mediated colloidal crystallization using data obtained from Brownian dynamics simulations. We use diffusion maps (a manifold learning algorithm) to identify a set of useful latent observables. In this latent space we identify an eSDE using a deep learning architecture inspired by numerical stochastic integrators and compare it with the traditional Kramers–Moyal expansion estimation. We show that the obtained variables and the learned dynamics accurately encode the physics of the Brownian dynamic simulations. We further illustrate that our reduced model captures the dynamics of corresponding experimental data. Further, our dimension reduction/reduced model identification approach can be easily ported to a broad class of particle systems dynamics experiments/models.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2020

A regional nuclear conflict would compromise global food security

A limited nuclear war between India and Pakistan could ignite fires large enough to emit more than 5 Tg of soot into the stratosphere. Climate model simulations have shown severe resulting climate perturbations with declines in global mean temperature by 1.8 °C and precipitation by 8%, for at least 5 y. Here we evaluate impacts for the global food system. Six harmonized state-of-the-art crop models show that global caloric production from maize, wheat, rice, and soybean falls by 13 (±1)%, 11 (±8)%, 3 (±5)%, and 17 (±2)% over 5 y. Total single-year losses of 12 (±4)% quadruple the largest observed historical anomaly and exceed impacts caused by historic droughts and volcanic eruptions. Colder temperatures drive losses more than changes in precipitation and solar radiation, leading to strongest impacts in temperate regions poleward of 30°N, including the United States, Europe, and China for 10 to 15 y. Integrated food trade network analyses show that domestic reserves and global trade can largely buffer the production anomaly in the first year. Persistent multiyear losses, however, would constrain domestic food availability and propagate to the Global South, especially to food-insecure countries. By year 5, maize and wheat availability would decrease by 13% globally and by more than 20% in 71 countries with a cumulative population of 1.3 billion people. In view of increasing instability in South Asia, this study shows that a regional conflict using <1% of the worldwide nuclear arsenal could have adverse consequences for global food security unmatched in modern history.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗