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At least 1,387 records · Page 77

An investigation of short period oscillations of the solar irradiance and their time variations

Measurements of solar irradiance fluctuations by the Active Cavity Radiometer (ACRIM) instrument onboard the Solar Maximum Mission (SMM) show variations on a time scale of about 5 minutes due to solar p-mode oscillations, as well as longer-term variations related to solar magnetic activity. The question was studied whether the p-mode frequencies change with time as a result of changing solar structure associated with the activity cycle. The ACRIM data on SMM are particularly well-suited for this purpose, because the instrument operated continuously from February 1980 to December 1980 and again from May 1984 to the present. The main activity entailed a detailed study of the observational data to determine if a change in the p-mode frequencies is evident from the time of solar maximum to that of solar minimum. It was concluded that the measured eigenfrequencies were significantly higher during the 1980 time frame than during the 1984 to 1986 time frame. The conclusion that there is significant change in the eigenfrequencies with the activity cycle remains only tentative, and needs confirmation from analysis of more data during the upcoming solar maximum.

Noyes, Robert W.↗

Inference for Nonparanormal Partial Correlation via Regularized Rank-Based Nodewise Regression

Abstract Partial correlation is a common tool in studying conditional dependence for Gaussian distributed data. However, partial correlation being zero may not be equivalent to conditional independence under non-Gaussian distributions. In this paper, we propose a statistical inference procedure for partial correlations under the high-dimensional nonparanormal (NPN) model where the observed data are normally distributed after certain monotone transformations. The NPN partial correlation is the partial correlation of the normal transformed data under the NPN model, which is a more general measure of conditional dependence. We estimate the NPN partial correlations by regularized nodewise regression based on the empirical ranks of the original data. A multiple testing procedure is proposed to identify the nonzero NPN partial correlations. The proposed method can be carried out by a simple coordinate descent algorithm for lasso optimization. It is easy-to-implement and computationally more efficient compared to the existing methods for estimating NPN graphical models. Theoretical results are developed to show the asymptotic normality of the proposed estimator and to justify the proposed multiple testing procedure. Numerical simulations and a case study on brain imaging data demonstrate the utility of the proposed procedure and evaluate its performance compared to the existing methods. Data used in preparation of this article were obtained from the Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative (ADNI) database.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

O(1) eV sterile neutrino in f(R) gravity

We refer [1] to the role of an additional O(1) eV sterile neutrino in modified gravity models. We find parameter constraints in particular f(R) gravity model using following up-to-dated cosmological data: measurements of the cosmic microwave background (CMB) anisotropy, the CMB lensing potential, the baryon acoustic oscillations (BAO), the cluster mass function and the Hubble constant. It was obtained for the sterile neutrino mass 0.47 eV < m{sub ν,sterile} < 1 eV (2σ) assuming that the sterile neutrinos are thermalized and the active neutrinos are massless, not significantly larger than in the standard cosmology model within the same data set: 0.45 eV < m{sub ν,sterile} < 0.92 eV (2σ). But, if the mass of sterile neutrino is fixed and equals ≈ 1.5 eV according to various anomalies in neutrino oscillation experiments, f(R) gravity is much more consistent with observation data than the CDM model.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Surrogate multi-fidelity data and model fusion for scientific discovery and uncertainty quantification in Earth System Models

This whitepaper addresses the Earth and Environmental Systems Sciences Division (EESSD)’s predictability challenges in modeling the integrated water cycle and data-model integration. Specifically, it focuses on reducing and characterizing the uncertainty in the representation of process models for unresolved physics, either due to model resolution or limited by the physical under standing or computational efficiency, and the use of observational data for in-situ process parameter optimization within ESM. The described methods may also be used to determine the nature of responses (e.g. strength and direction), and hence to identify critical processes that drive the overall ESM responses to perturbation in the forcing

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Data management strategy to improve global use of ocean acidification data and information

Ocean acidification (OA) refers to the general decrease in pH of the global ocean as a result of absorbing anthropogenic CO 2 emitted in the atmosphere since preindustrial times (sabine et al., 2004). There is, however, considerable variability in ocean acidification, and many careful measurements need to be made and compared in order to obtain scientifically valid information for the assessment of patterns, trends, and impacts over a range of spatial and temporal scales, and to understand the process involved. A single country or institution cannot undertaken measurements of worldwide coastal and open ocean OA changes; therefore, international cooperation is needed to achieve that goal. Here, the OA data that have been, and are being, collected represent a significant public investment. To this end, it is critically important that researchers (and others) around the world are easily able to find and use reliable OA information that range from observing data (from time-series moorings, process studies, and research cruises), to biological response experiments (e.g., mesocosm), data products, and model output.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

A method of computing periods of cyclic phenomena.

Use of an analysis of Expected Mean Square Deviations to search for periodicities in an observational data sample is described. The statistic for testing the null hypothesis of nonperiodicity is derived from a partitioning of the total sum of squared deviations from the mean. Unlike most existing methods, the present one does not require equally spaced observations. No assumptions are made concerning the statistical nature of spacing intervals. The method is illustrated by numerical examples.

Jurkevich, I.↗

Spectra, fluxes, and observability of gamma rays from dark matter annihilation in the Galaxy

Details of the physics of gamma-ray production by the annihilation of dark matter particles in the Galaxy are presented. Improved gamma-ray spectra and fluxes are calculated and compared with present observational data on cosmic gamma-ray fluxes at high Galactic latitudes. A comparison with the gamma-ray flux from cosmic-ray interactions is made. It is found that gamma-rays from dark matter annihilation are most potentially observable from patches of the sky at high Galactic latitudes in directions having an unusually low total column density of gas and from a dark matter core at the Galactic center.

Stecker, F. W.↗

Evaluation of Cloud-Resolving Model Intercomparison Simulations Using TWP-ICE Observations: Precipitation and Cloud Structure

The Tropical Warm Pool.International Cloud Experiment (TWP ]ICE) provided extensive observational data sets designed to initialize, force, and constrain atmospheric model simulations. In this first of a two ]part study, precipitation and cloud structures within nine cloud ]resolving model simulations are compared with scanning radar reflectivity and satellite infrared brightness temperature observations during an active monsoon period from 19 to 25 January 2006. Seven of nine simulations overestimate convective area by 20% or more leading to general overestimation of convective rainfall. This is balanced by underestimation of stratiform rainfall by 5% to 50% despite overestimation of stratiform area by up to 65% because of a preponderance of very low stratiform rain rates in all simulations. All simulations fail to reproduce observed radar reflectivity distributions above the melting level in convective regions and throughout the troposphere in stratiform regions. Observed precipitation ]sized ice reaches higher altitudes than simulated precipitation ]sized ice despite some simulations that predict lower than observed top ]of ]atmosphere infrared brightness temperatures. For the simulations that overestimate radar reflectivity aloft, graupel is the cause with one ]moment microphysics schemes whereas snow is the cause with two ]moment microphysics schemes. Differences in simulated radar reflectivity are more highly correlated with differences in mass mean melted diameter (Dm) than differences in ice water content. Dm is largely dependent on the mass ]dimension relationship and gamma size distribution parameters such as size intercept (N0) and shape parameter (m). Having variable density, variable N0, or m greater than zero produces radar reflectivities closest to those observed.

Varble, Adam↗

Carbon Organisms Rhizosphere and Protection in Soil Environment model script and input data for soil moisture-respiration responses in tropical forests

Objectives: Climatic drying is predicted for many tropical forests, yet models remain poorly parameterized for tropical forests, hampering predictions of forest-climate feedbacks. We applied an integrated model–experiment approach, parameterizing an ecosystem model Carbon Organisms Rhizosphere and Protection in the Soil Environment (CORPSE) with tropical forest observational data, and comparing model predictions with a field drying manipulation. We hypothesized that drying would suppress soil CO2 fluxes (i.e., respiration) in already-drier tropical forests, but increases CO2 fluxes in wetter tropical forests by alleviating anaerobiosis. We measured soil CO2 fluxes, soil moisture, soil temperature, and forest floor biomass during wet-dry cycles (2015 – 2022) in four Panamanian forests that vary in rainfall and soil fertility. We used the field data to parameterize and run tests in the model.Results: Measured CO2 fluxes declined in the dry season and peaked in the early wet season ahead of peak soil moisture, resulting in a lower soil moisture optimum for respiration than previously modeled. We used this data to parameterize the model, which then predicted increased soil CO2 fluxes in wetter and fertile forests with drying, and decreased fluxes in drier, infertile forests. In contrast to model predictions, a chronic throughfall exclusion experiment in the forests initially suppressed soil CO2 fluxes across forests, with sustained suppression after four years in the wettest forest only (-28 ± 4% during the dry season), but elevated soil CO2 fluxes in a fertile forest after four years (+75 ± 28% during the late wet season), as predicted by the model. The unexpected negative drying effect in the wettest, most infertile forest could have resulted from reduced vertical flushing of nutrients into soils. Including hydro-nutrient interactions in ecosystem models could improve predictions of tropical forest-climate feedbacks (results presented in Cusack et al. 2023). Datasets included: Code files:CORPSE_array.py: Defines the equations of the CORPSE modelCORPSE_solvers: Functions for running the CORPSE model using either iterative or ordinary differential equation (ODE) solversrun_Panama_sims.py: Read in datasets and run the model simulations for this studyInput data:PanamaGradientEcosystemChem_BT_CPools_20152016CO2_DC_20190615.xlsx: Plot characteristics used in running model simulationsLiCor compiled surface flux only to 2020_03 DC_20200825.xlsx: Surface gas exchange fluxes used in model-data comparisonsPARCHED litterfall data for Ben Sulman LD 20200902.xlsx: Litterfall data used to drive model simulationsInitialization data:state_500y_20190823.csv: Initial state of model pools based on previous spinup runsOutput data:Outputs/prev_moisture_response.csv: Simulations of multiple sites using original model moisture response function.Outputs/updated_moisture_response.csv: Simulations of multiple sites using updated model moisture response function.Outputs/dry15_prev_moisture_response.csv: Simulations with soil moisture reduced by 15%, using original moisture response function.Outputs/dry15_updated_moisture_response.csv: Simulations with soil moisture reduced by 15%, using updated moisture response function.Outputs/dry30_prev_moisture_response.csv: Simulations with soil moisture reduced by 30%, using original moisture response function.Outputs/dry30_updated_moisture_response.csv: Simulations with soil moisture reduced by 30%, using updated moisture response function.Outputs/latestart_prev_moisture_response.csv: Simulations with extended dry season, using original moisture response function.Outputs/latestart_updated_moisture_response.csv: Simulations with extended dry season, using updated moisture response function.Outputs/[site name]_oneyear.csv: One-year simulation for each site in expanded site list using original moisture response function.Outputs/[site name]_oneyear_dried.csv: One-year simulation for each site in expanded site list using original moisture response function, with soil moisture reduced by 25%.Outputs/[site name]_oneyear_updated_moisture_response.csv: One-year simulation for each site in expanded site list using updated moisture response function.Outputs/[site name]_oneyear_updated_moisture_response_dried.csv: One-year simulation for each site in expanded site list using updated moisture response function, with soil moisture reduced by 25%.Field plot location data:There is also a .kml file that includes coordinates for all 32 plots included in the study of four forests (n = 4 throughfall reduction and n = 4 control plots per site).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Data Report on the Newest Batch of PCEA Graphite for the VHTR Baseline Graphite Characterization Program

This report details a comparison of mechanical and physical properties from the first billet of extruded PCEA nuclear-grade graphite from the newest batch of PCEA procured from GrafTech. Testing has largely been completed on three of the billets from the original batch of PCEA, with data distributions for those billets exhibiting a much wider range of values when compared to the distributions of properties from other grades. A higher propensity for extremely low values or specimens that broke while machining or handling was also characteristic of the billets from the first batch, owing to unusually large fissures or disparate flaws in the billets in an as-manufactured state. Coordination with GrafTech prior to placing the order for a second batch of PCEA included discussions on these large disparate flaws and how to prevent them during the manufacturing process. This report provides a comparison of the observed data distributions from properties measured in the first billet from the new batch of PCEA with those observed in the original batch, in order that an evaluation of tighter control of the manufacturing process and the outcome of these controls on final properties can be ascertained. Additionally, this billet of PCEA is the first billet to formally include measurements from two alternate test techniques that will become part of the Baseline Graphite Characterization database – the three-point bend test on sub-sized cylinders and the Brazilian disc splitting tensile strength test. As the program moves forward, property distributions from these two tests will be based on specimen geometries that match specimen geometries being used in the irradiated Advanced Graphite Creep (AGC) program. This will allow a more thorough evaluation of both the utility of the test and expected variability in properties when using those approaches on the constrained geometries of specimens irradiated in the Advanced Test Reactor as part of the AGC experiment.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

A review of dark fermentative hydrogen production from biodegradable municipal waste fractions

Highlights: ► A large number of factors affect fermentative hydrogen production. ► Harmonization and systematic comparison of results from different literature sources are needed. ► More than 80 publications on H{sub 2} production from food waste and OFMSW have been examined. ► Experimental data from the reviewed literature were analyzed using statistical tools. ► For a reliable assessment of the process performance, the use of multiple parameters appears to be recommended. - Abstract: Hydrogen is believed to play a potentially key role in the implementation of sustainable energy production, particularly when it is produced from renewable sources and low energy-demanding processes. In the present paper an attempt was made at critically reviewing more than 80 recent publications, in order to harmonize and compare the available results from different studies on hydrogen production from FW and OFMSW through dark fermentation, and derive reliable information about process yield and stability in view of building related predictive models. The review was focused on the effect of factors, recognized as potentially affecting process evolution (including type of substrate and co-substrate and relative ratio, type of inoculum, food/microorganisms [F/M] ratio, applied pre-treatment, reactor configuration, temperature and pH), on the fermentation yield and kinetics. Statistical analysis of literature data from batch experiments was also conducted, showing that the variables affecting the H{sub 2} production yield were ranked in the order: type of co-substrate, type of pre-treatment, operating pH, control of initial pH and fermentation temperature. However, due to the dispersion of data observed in some instances, the ambiguity about the presence of additional hidden variables cannot be resolved. The results from the analysis thus suggest that, for reliable predictive models of fermentative hydrogen production to be derived, a high level of consistency between data is strictly required, claiming for more systematic and comprehensive studies on the subject.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Optimal constraint on g{sub NL} from CMB

An optimal method to constrain the non-linearity parameter g{sub NL} of the local-type non-Gaussianity from CMB data is proposed. Our optimal estimator for g{sub NL} is separable and can be efficiently computed in real space. Combining the exact filtering of CMB maps with the full covariance matrix, our method allows us to extract cosmological information from observed data as much as possible and obtain a tighter constraint on g{sub NL} than previous studies. Applying our method to the WMAP 9-year data, we obtain the constraint g{sub NL} = (−3.3±2.2) × 10{sup 5}, which is a few times tighter than previous ones. We also make a forecast for PLANCK data by using the Fisher matrix analysis.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Photometry and polarimetry of V 1057 Cygni.

Evaluation of extensive photometric and polarimetric data over a six-month interval for V 1057 Cyg. The polarization appears to be constant and of interstellar origin; the photometry, which extends nearly six octaves from the ultraviolet to 22 microns in the infrared, indicates that the total observed luminosity is decreasing - having now declined about 10% from its earlier level. A model characterized by two circumstellar shells which absorb and reradiate short-wavelength stellar flux from an underlying A1-type star provides the best fit to the observational data. The present variability, however, cannot be due to circumstellar activity, but appears to originate in the star itself.

Rieke, G.↗

Heterogeneous physicochemistry of the winter polar stratosphere

Present chemical theories of the Antarctic ozone hole assume that heterogeneous reactions involving polar stratospheric clouds (PSCs) are the precursor of springtime ozone depletions. However, none of the theories quantify the rates of proposed heterogeneous processed, and none utilize the extensive data base on PSC's. Thus, all of the theories must be considered incomplete until the heterogeneous mechanisms are properly defined. A unified treatment developed of the cloud related processes, both physical and chemical, and the importance of these processes using observation data is calibrated. The rates are compared competitive heterogeneous processes to place reasonable limits on critical mechanisms such as the denitrification and dechlorination of the polar winter stratosphere. Among the subjects addressed here are the physical/chemical properties of PSC's including their relevant microphysical, optical and compositional characteristics, mass transfer rates of gaseous constituents to cloud particles, adsorption, accommodation and sticking coefficients on cloud particles, time constants for condensation, absorption and other microphysical processes, effects of solubility and vapor pressure on cloud composition, the statistics of cloud processing of chemically active condensible species, rate limiting steps in heterogeneous chemical reactions, and the nonlinear dependence of ozone loss on physical and chemical parameters.

Turco, R. P.↗

Can a variable alpha induce limit cycle behavior and exponential luminosity decay in transient soft x ray sources?

There has been, recently, a revival of the stability problem of accretion disks. Much of this renewed interest is due to recent observational data on transient soft X-ray novae, which are low-mass X-ray binaries. It is widely believed that nonsteady mass transfer from the secondary onto the compact primary, through an accretion disk, is the reason for the observed spectacular events in the form of often repetitive outbursts, with recurrence times ranging from 1 to 60 yr and duration time on the scale of months. Though not having reached yet a consensus about the nature of the mechanism that regulates the mass transfer, the disk thermal instability model seems to be favored by the fact that the rise in the hard X-ray luminosity is prior to the rise in the soft X-ray luminosity, while the mass transfer instability model seems to be hindered by the fact that the luminosity during quiescence is unable to trigger the thermal instability. However, it should be stressed that, remarkably, the X-ray light curves of these X-ray novae all show overall exponential decays, a feature quite difficult to reproduce in the framework of the viscous disk model, which yields powerlike luminosity decay. Taking into account this observational constraint, we have studied the temporal evolution of perturbations in the accretion rate, under the assumption that alpha is radial and parameter dependent. The chosen dependence is such that the model can reproduce limit cycle behavior (the system is locally unstable but globally stable). However, the kind of dependence we are looking for in alpha does not allow us to use the usual Shakura and Sunyaev procedure in the sense that we no longer can obtain a linearized continuity equation without explicit dependence on the accretion rate. This is so because now we cannot eliminate the accretion rate by using the angular momentum conservation equation.

Meirellesfilho, C.↗

An High Resolution Near-Earth Objects Population Enabling Next-Generation Search Strategies

Over the past decade, the dedicated search for kilometer-size near-Earth objects (NEOs), potentially hazardous objects (PHOs), and potential Earth impactors has led to a boost in the rate of discoveries of these objects. The catalog of known NEOs is the fundamental ingredient used to develop a model for the NEOs population, either by assessing and correcting for the observational bias (Jedicke et al., 2002), or by evaluating the migration rates from the NEOs source regions (Bottke et al., 2002). The modeled NEOs population is a necessary tool used to track the progress in the search of large NEOs (Jedicke et al., 2003) and to try to predict the distribution of the ones still undiscovered, as well as to study the sky distribution of potential Earth impactors (Chesley & Spahr, 2004). We present a method to model the NEOs population in all six orbital elements, on a finely grained grid, allowing us the design and test of targeted and optimized search strategies. This method relies on the observational data routinely reported to the Minor Planet Center (MPC) by the Catalina Sky Survey (CSS) and by other active NEO surveys over the past decade, to determine on a nightly basis the efficiency in detecting moving objects as a function of observable quantities including apparent magnitude, rate of motion, airmass, and galactic latitude. The cumulative detection probability is then be computed for objects within a small range in orbital elements and absolute magnitude, and the comparison with the number of know NEOs within the same range allows us to model the population. When propagated to the present epoch and projected on the sky plane, this provides the distribution of the missing large NEOs, PHOs, and potential impactors.

Tricaico, Pasquale↗

NASA Computational Case Study: Spectral Energy Distribution Fitting

The need for faster, more efficient algorithms is an important aspect of scientific computing. Generally, scientists are only exposed to computational issues that arise in their field. Thus, collaboration between a numerical analyst and a scientist is becoming necessary for scientific computing. The purpose of this case study is to expose computer scientists to processes that an astronomer would use to obtain useful results from raw data. For example, astronomers are interested in determining the properties of galaxies and measuring changes in those properties as a function of time throughout cosmic history. To do so, they use certain models that are designed and refined over time via observations at different wavelengths of the light spectrum. The process of matching these models with observed data from studying celestial bodies is referred to as Spectral Energy Distribution (SED) fitting. In this case study, we learn how to perform the SED fit. This process requires knowledge of both the astronomical and computational issues involved when fitting flux, the total energy from a source as seen from Earth, to a set of physical templates. Once a fit is complete, one can classify the source and estimate a number of physical parameters. The goal is to demonstrate how the computer science skill set can be used in the scientific community and to possibly improve one or more of the computational aspects of this problem. The following provides some background on the astronomy issues, including information on the spectral energy distribution and related physical parameters, and the computational issues, including the fitting procedure..

modeling↗

Constrained simulation of the Bullet Cluster

In this work, we report on a detailed simulation of the Bullet Cluster (1E0657-56) merger, including magnetohydrodynamics, plasma cooling, and adaptive mesh refinement. We constrain the simulation with data from gravitational lensing reconstructions and the 0.5-2 keV Chandra X-ray flux map, then compare the resulting model to higher energy X-ray fluxes, the extracted plasma temperature map, Sunyaev-Zel'dovich effect measurements, and cluster halo radio emission. We constrain the initial conditions by minimizing the chi-squared figure of merit between the full two-dimensional (2D) observational data sets and the simulation, rather than comparing only a few features such as the location of subcluster centroids, as in previous studies. A simple initial configuration of two triaxial clusters with Navarro-Frenk-White dark matter profiles and physically reasonable plasma profiles gives a good fit to the current observational morphology and X-ray emissions of the merging clusters. There is no need for unconventional physics or extreme infall velocities. The study gives insight into the astrophysical processes at play during a galaxy cluster merger, and constrains the strength and coherence length of the magnetic fields. The techniques developed here to create realistic, stable, triaxial clusters, and to utilize the totality of the 2D image data, will be applicable to future simulation studies of other merging clusters. This approach of constrained simulation, when applied to well-measured systems, should be a powerful complement to present tools for understanding X-ray clusters and their magnetic fields, and the processes governing their formation.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗